Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... A surface cyclone is expected to develop across the central Plains Tuesday afternoon, with increasing south to southwesterly flow across much of the central and southern Plains. Gradual moisture return will begin across central Texas into central Oklahoma. A broad area of Elevated fire weather risk is expected across portions of the central and southern Plains behind a surface dryline located across west Texas/western Oklahoma into central Kansas. The driest conditions are expected across eastern New Mexico into western Texas, where relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will coincide with sustained winds around 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20 mph). Further north into western Oklahoma and western/central Kansas, relative humidity reductions to 15-25 percent will be possible amid sustained winds 10-15 mph. Closer to the surface low across central Kansas, stronger sustained winds will be possible with relative humidity around 20-25 percent. A period of near Critical to Critical meteorological conditions may be possible briefly within this region. Overall, fuels within this region do not support a Critical delineation and as such an Elevated delineation was maintained. ..Thornton.. 03/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... A surface cyclone is expected to develop across the central Plains Tuesday afternoon, with increasing south to southwesterly flow across much of the central and southern Plains. Gradual moisture return will begin across central Texas into central Oklahoma. A broad area of Elevated fire weather risk is expected across portions of the central and southern Plains behind a surface dryline located across west Texas/western Oklahoma into central Kansas. The driest conditions are expected across eastern New Mexico into western Texas, where relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will coincide with sustained winds around 10-15 mph (locally as high as 20 mph). Further north into western Oklahoma and western/central Kansas, relative humidity reductions to 15-25 percent will be possible amid sustained winds 10-15 mph. Closer to the surface low across central Kansas, stronger sustained winds will be possible with relative humidity around 20-25 percent. A period of near Critical to Critical meteorological conditions may be possible briefly within this region. Overall, fuels within this region do not support a Critical delineation and as such an Elevated delineation was maintained. ..Thornton.. 03/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very hail and a tornado or two are possible across the Lower Missouri Valley from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing is expected to be in place across the western CONUS early Wednesday morning, with strong mid-level flow extending from the Pacific Northwest into the Southwest states throughout the western and southern periphery of the trough. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this larger trough, including one that is forecast to eject northeastward through the central Plains during the day. Surface low associated with this shortwave is expected to progress into the central Plains just ahead of its parent shortwave, likely ending the period near the KS/NE/MO border intersection. A dryline will accompany this low, gradually pushing eastward across KS and OK throughout the day and into the early evening before then stalling until the cold front arrives early Thursday morning. A warm front is also expected to extend southeastward from this low, with this front gradually moving northward throughout the day. By 00Z this warm front is expected to extend from the low over north-central KS east-southeastward into central MO. Thunderstorm development is anticipated in the vicinity of the surface low and warm front, with isolated development possible south along the dryline as well. ...Lower MO Valley... Dewpoints will likely be in the mid 50s across much of eastern KS by the late afternoon, possibly reaching into far southeast NE. Some locally higher dewpoints are possible along the warm front as well. These dewpoints, combined with surface temperatures in the mid 70s and cold mid-level temperatures, should be sufficient for airmass destabilization. Large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough coupled with low-level convergence near the surface low and warm front are expected to provide the lift needed for convective initiation. Initiation is currently expected to occur in the 21Z to 00Z time frame over north-central/northeast KS. The strongest mid-level flow will likely be displaced south of the region, but vertical shear should still be strong enough for supercells. Given the steep mid-level lapse rates some large to very large hail is possible. Veering low-level wind profiles with height also suggest some tornado potential exists, particularly near the warm front where low-level southeasterlies are more likely. Thunderstorm coverage will likely grow during the evening as the low-level jet strengthens, with a warm-air advection increasing as well. These storms would likely be elevated north of the warm front, with steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate vertical shear supporting hail with any more mature updrafts. ...Southeast KS...Central/Eastern OK...Far Northeast TX... A more conditional severe threat exists in this region versus farther north across the Lower MO Valley. Here, upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints are likely, but warmer mid-level temperatures look to cap the airmass, precluding widespread destabilization. Even so, convergence along the dryline may be able to overcome this inhibition in isolated instances, and the overall environmental conditions support supercell thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards if convective initiation is realized. ..Mosier.. 03/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very hail and a tornado or two are possible across the Lower Missouri Valley from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing is expected to be in place across the western CONUS early Wednesday morning, with strong mid-level flow extending from the Pacific Northwest into the Southwest states throughout the western and southern periphery of the trough. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this larger trough, including one that is forecast to eject northeastward through the central Plains during the day. Surface low associated with this shortwave is expected to progress into the central Plains just ahead of its parent shortwave, likely ending the period near the KS/NE/MO border intersection. A dryline will accompany this low, gradually pushing eastward across KS and OK throughout the day and into the early evening before then stalling until the cold front arrives early Thursday morning. A warm front is also expected to extend southeastward from this low, with this front gradually moving northward throughout the day. By 00Z this warm front is expected to extend from the low over north-central KS east-southeastward into central MO. Thunderstorm development is anticipated in the vicinity of the surface low and warm front, with isolated development possible south along the dryline as well. ...Lower MO Valley... Dewpoints will likely be in the mid 50s across much of eastern KS by the late afternoon, possibly reaching into far southeast NE. Some locally higher dewpoints are possible along the warm front as well. These dewpoints, combined with surface temperatures in the mid 70s and cold mid-level temperatures, should be sufficient for airmass destabilization. Large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough coupled with low-level convergence near the surface low and warm front are expected to provide the lift needed for convective initiation. Initiation is currently expected to occur in the 21Z to 00Z time frame over north-central/northeast KS. The strongest mid-level flow will likely be displaced south of the region, but vertical shear should still be strong enough for supercells. Given the steep mid-level lapse rates some large to very large hail is possible. Veering low-level wind profiles with height also suggest some tornado potential exists, particularly near the warm front where low-level southeasterlies are more likely. Thunderstorm coverage will likely grow during the evening as the low-level jet strengthens, with a warm-air advection increasing as well. These storms would likely be elevated north of the warm front, with steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate vertical shear supporting hail with any more mature updrafts. ...Southeast KS...Central/Eastern OK...Far Northeast TX... A more conditional severe threat exists in this region versus farther north across the Lower MO Valley. Here, upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints are likely, but warmer mid-level temperatures look to cap the airmass, precluding widespread destabilization. Even so, convergence along the dryline may be able to overcome this inhibition in isolated instances, and the overall environmental conditions support supercell thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards if convective initiation is realized. ..Mosier.. 03/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very hail and a tornado or two are possible across the Lower Missouri Valley from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing is expected to be in place across the western CONUS early Wednesday morning, with strong mid-level flow extending from the Pacific Northwest into the Southwest states throughout the western and southern periphery of the trough. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this larger trough, including one that is forecast to eject northeastward through the central Plains during the day. Surface low associated with this shortwave is expected to progress into the central Plains just ahead of its parent shortwave, likely ending the period near the KS/NE/MO border intersection. A dryline will accompany this low, gradually pushing eastward across KS and OK throughout the day and into the early evening before then stalling until the cold front arrives early Thursday morning. A warm front is also expected to extend southeastward from this low, with this front gradually moving northward throughout the day. By 00Z this warm front is expected to extend from the low over north-central KS east-southeastward into central MO. Thunderstorm development is anticipated in the vicinity of the surface low and warm front, with isolated development possible south along the dryline as well. ...Lower MO Valley... Dewpoints will likely be in the mid 50s across much of eastern KS by the late afternoon, possibly reaching into far southeast NE. Some locally higher dewpoints are possible along the warm front as well. These dewpoints, combined with surface temperatures in the mid 70s and cold mid-level temperatures, should be sufficient for airmass destabilization. Large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough coupled with low-level convergence near the surface low and warm front are expected to provide the lift needed for convective initiation. Initiation is currently expected to occur in the 21Z to 00Z time frame over north-central/northeast KS. The strongest mid-level flow will likely be displaced south of the region, but vertical shear should still be strong enough for supercells. Given the steep mid-level lapse rates some large to very large hail is possible. Veering low-level wind profiles with height also suggest some tornado potential exists, particularly near the warm front where low-level southeasterlies are more likely. Thunderstorm coverage will likely grow during the evening as the low-level jet strengthens, with a warm-air advection increasing as well. These storms would likely be elevated north of the warm front, with steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate vertical shear supporting hail with any more mature updrafts. ...Southeast KS...Central/Eastern OK...Far Northeast TX... A more conditional severe threat exists in this region versus farther north across the Lower MO Valley. Here, upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints are likely, but warmer mid-level temperatures look to cap the airmass, precluding widespread destabilization. Even so, convergence along the dryline may be able to overcome this inhibition in isolated instances, and the overall environmental conditions support supercell thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards if convective initiation is realized. ..Mosier.. 03/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very hail and a tornado or two are possible across the Lower Missouri Valley from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing is expected to be in place across the western CONUS early Wednesday morning, with strong mid-level flow extending from the Pacific Northwest into the Southwest states throughout the western and southern periphery of the trough. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this larger trough, including one that is forecast to eject northeastward through the central Plains during the day. Surface low associated with this shortwave is expected to progress into the central Plains just ahead of its parent shortwave, likely ending the period near the KS/NE/MO border intersection. A dryline will accompany this low, gradually pushing eastward across KS and OK throughout the day and into the early evening before then stalling until the cold front arrives early Thursday morning. A warm front is also expected to extend southeastward from this low, with this front gradually moving northward throughout the day. By 00Z this warm front is expected to extend from the low over north-central KS east-southeastward into central MO. Thunderstorm development is anticipated in the vicinity of the surface low and warm front, with isolated development possible south along the dryline as well. ...Lower MO Valley... Dewpoints will likely be in the mid 50s across much of eastern KS by the late afternoon, possibly reaching into far southeast NE. Some locally higher dewpoints are possible along the warm front as well. These dewpoints, combined with surface temperatures in the mid 70s and cold mid-level temperatures, should be sufficient for airmass destabilization. Large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough coupled with low-level convergence near the surface low and warm front are expected to provide the lift needed for convective initiation. Initiation is currently expected to occur in the 21Z to 00Z time frame over north-central/northeast KS. The strongest mid-level flow will likely be displaced south of the region, but vertical shear should still be strong enough for supercells. Given the steep mid-level lapse rates some large to very large hail is possible. Veering low-level wind profiles with height also suggest some tornado potential exists, particularly near the warm front where low-level southeasterlies are more likely. Thunderstorm coverage will likely grow during the evening as the low-level jet strengthens, with a warm-air advection increasing as well. These storms would likely be elevated north of the warm front, with steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate vertical shear supporting hail with any more mature updrafts. ...Southeast KS...Central/Eastern OK...Far Northeast TX... A more conditional severe threat exists in this region versus farther north across the Lower MO Valley. Here, upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints are likely, but warmer mid-level temperatures look to cap the airmass, precluding widespread destabilization. Even so, convergence along the dryline may be able to overcome this inhibition in isolated instances, and the overall environmental conditions support supercell thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards if convective initiation is realized. ..Mosier.. 03/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very hail and a tornado or two are possible across the Lower Missouri Valley from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing is expected to be in place across the western CONUS early Wednesday morning, with strong mid-level flow extending from the Pacific Northwest into the Southwest states throughout the western and southern periphery of the trough. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within this larger trough, including one that is forecast to eject northeastward through the central Plains during the day. Surface low associated with this shortwave is expected to progress into the central Plains just ahead of its parent shortwave, likely ending the period near the KS/NE/MO border intersection. A dryline will accompany this low, gradually pushing eastward across KS and OK throughout the day and into the early evening before then stalling until the cold front arrives early Thursday morning. A warm front is also expected to extend southeastward from this low, with this front gradually moving northward throughout the day. By 00Z this warm front is expected to extend from the low over north-central KS east-southeastward into central MO. Thunderstorm development is anticipated in the vicinity of the surface low and warm front, with isolated development possible south along the dryline as well. ...Lower MO Valley... Dewpoints will likely be in the mid 50s across much of eastern KS by the late afternoon, possibly reaching into far southeast NE. Some locally higher dewpoints are possible along the warm front as well. These dewpoints, combined with surface temperatures in the mid 70s and cold mid-level temperatures, should be sufficient for airmass destabilization. Large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough coupled with low-level convergence near the surface low and warm front are expected to provide the lift needed for convective initiation. Initiation is currently expected to occur in the 21Z to 00Z time frame over north-central/northeast KS. The strongest mid-level flow will likely be displaced south of the region, but vertical shear should still be strong enough for supercells. Given the steep mid-level lapse rates some large to very large hail is possible. Veering low-level wind profiles with height also suggest some tornado potential exists, particularly near the warm front where low-level southeasterlies are more likely. Thunderstorm coverage will likely grow during the evening as the low-level jet strengthens, with a warm-air advection increasing as well. These storms would likely be elevated north of the warm front, with steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate vertical shear supporting hail with any more mature updrafts. ...Southeast KS...Central/Eastern OK...Far Northeast TX... A more conditional severe threat exists in this region versus farther north across the Lower MO Valley. Here, upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints are likely, but warmer mid-level temperatures look to cap the airmass, precluding widespread destabilization. Even so, convergence along the dryline may be able to overcome this inhibition in isolated instances, and the overall environmental conditions support supercell thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards if convective initiation is realized. ..Mosier.. 03/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today from far northeast Oklahoma and far southeast Kansas into western and northern Missouri. ...Missouri/Far Southeast Kansas/Far Northeast Oklahoma... Low-level moisture return will take place today from the southern Plains into the western Ozarks, as a shortwave trough approaches from the west. Warming surface temperatures this afternoon will result in a corridor of instability along and near the moist axis. Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the shortwave trough near the instability axis late this afternoon, with this activity spreading east-northeastward toward the Mississippi River this evening. RAP forecast soundings along and near the instability axis over western Missouri for 00Z/Wednesday have MLCAPE reaching the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.0 C/km. This thermodynamic environment, combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear, should be sufficient for marginally severe hail. The storms may also produce a few isolated severe gusts. However, any severe threat is expected to remain within a relatively small temporal window, with the maximum threat expected around 00Z. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 03/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today from far northeast Oklahoma and far southeast Kansas into western and northern Missouri. ...Missouri/Far Southeast Kansas/Far Northeast Oklahoma... Low-level moisture return will take place today from the southern Plains into the western Ozarks, as a shortwave trough approaches from the west. Warming surface temperatures this afternoon will result in a corridor of instability along and near the moist axis. Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the shortwave trough near the instability axis late this afternoon, with this activity spreading east-northeastward toward the Mississippi River this evening. RAP forecast soundings along and near the instability axis over western Missouri for 00Z/Wednesday have MLCAPE reaching the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.0 C/km. This thermodynamic environment, combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear, should be sufficient for marginally severe hail. The storms may also produce a few isolated severe gusts. However, any severe threat is expected to remain within a relatively small temporal window, with the maximum threat expected around 00Z. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 03/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today from far northeast Oklahoma and far southeast Kansas into western and northern Missouri. ...Missouri/Far Southeast Kansas/Far Northeast Oklahoma... Low-level moisture return will take place today from the southern Plains into the western Ozarks, as a shortwave trough approaches from the west. Warming surface temperatures this afternoon will result in a corridor of instability along and near the moist axis. Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the shortwave trough near the instability axis late this afternoon, with this activity spreading east-northeastward toward the Mississippi River this evening. RAP forecast soundings along and near the instability axis over western Missouri for 00Z/Wednesday have MLCAPE reaching the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.0 C/km. This thermodynamic environment, combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear, should be sufficient for marginally severe hail. The storms may also produce a few isolated severe gusts. However, any severe threat is expected to remain within a relatively small temporal window, with the maximum threat expected around 00Z. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 03/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today from far northeast Oklahoma and far southeast Kansas into western and northern Missouri. ...Missouri/Far Southeast Kansas/Far Northeast Oklahoma... Low-level moisture return will take place today from the southern Plains into the western Ozarks, as a shortwave trough approaches from the west. Warming surface temperatures this afternoon will result in a corridor of instability along and near the moist axis. Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the shortwave trough near the instability axis late this afternoon, with this activity spreading east-northeastward toward the Mississippi River this evening. RAP forecast soundings along and near the instability axis over western Missouri for 00Z/Wednesday have MLCAPE reaching the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.0 C/km. This thermodynamic environment, combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear, should be sufficient for marginally severe hail. The storms may also produce a few isolated severe gusts. However, any severe threat is expected to remain within a relatively small temporal window, with the maximum threat expected around 00Z. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 03/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today from far northeast Oklahoma and far southeast Kansas into western and northern Missouri. ...Missouri/Far Southeast Kansas/Far Northeast Oklahoma... Low-level moisture return will take place today from the southern Plains into the western Ozarks, as a shortwave trough approaches from the west. Warming surface temperatures this afternoon will result in a corridor of instability along and near the moist axis. Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the shortwave trough near the instability axis late this afternoon, with this activity spreading east-northeastward toward the Mississippi River this evening. RAP forecast soundings along and near the instability axis over western Missouri for 00Z/Wednesday have MLCAPE reaching the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.0 C/km. This thermodynamic environment, combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear, should be sufficient for marginally severe hail. The storms may also produce a few isolated severe gusts. However, any severe threat is expected to remain within a relatively small temporal window, with the maximum threat expected around 00Z. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 03/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today from far northeast Oklahoma and far southeast Kansas into western and northern Missouri. ...Missouri/Far Southeast Kansas/Far Northeast Oklahoma... Low-level moisture return will take place today from the southern Plains into the western Ozarks, as a shortwave trough approaches from the west. Warming surface temperatures this afternoon will result in a corridor of instability along and near the moist axis. Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the shortwave trough near the instability axis late this afternoon, with this activity spreading east-northeastward toward the Mississippi River this evening. RAP forecast soundings along and near the instability axis over western Missouri for 00Z/Wednesday have MLCAPE reaching the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.0 C/km. This thermodynamic environment, combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear, should be sufficient for marginally severe hail. The storms may also produce a few isolated severe gusts. However, any severe threat is expected to remain within a relatively small temporal window, with the maximum threat expected around 00Z. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 03/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. this evening and tonight. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge will move across the Great Lakes tonight as a shortwave trough moves through the central and southern Rockies. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will remain over the southeastern third of the country. This dry and cool airmass will limit moisture return making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms over most of the U.S. The only exception will be along the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the coast of Washington as a upper-level trough in the far eastern Pacific approaches tonight. ..Broyles.. 03/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. this evening and tonight. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge will move across the Great Lakes tonight as a shortwave trough moves through the central and southern Rockies. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will remain over the southeastern third of the country. This dry and cool airmass will limit moisture return making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms over most of the U.S. The only exception will be along the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the coast of Washington as a upper-level trough in the far eastern Pacific approaches tonight. ..Broyles.. 03/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. this evening and tonight. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge will move across the Great Lakes tonight as a shortwave trough moves through the central and southern Rockies. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will remain over the southeastern third of the country. This dry and cool airmass will limit moisture return making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms over most of the U.S. The only exception will be along the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the coast of Washington as a upper-level trough in the far eastern Pacific approaches tonight. ..Broyles.. 03/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. this evening and tonight. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge will move across the Great Lakes tonight as a shortwave trough moves through the central and southern Rockies. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will remain over the southeastern third of the country. This dry and cool airmass will limit moisture return making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms over most of the U.S. The only exception will be along the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the coast of Washington as a upper-level trough in the far eastern Pacific approaches tonight. ..Broyles.. 03/12/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Mar 11 22:04:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Mar 11 22:04:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1215 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the south-central Plains and Ozarks on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to progress across the central Plains on Tuesday, reaching the Mid MS Valley by late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. Surface low attendant to this shortwave is expected to track across KS throughout much of the day while gradually weakening. This low will likely be centered in the vicinity of the KS/NE/MO border intersection by 00Z Wednesday. Westerly flow aloft will be maintained across the Rockies and Plains in the wake of this lead shortwave as upper troughing deepens across the western CONUS. As a result, lee troughing will be maintained across the High Plains in the wake of the lead shortwave, with additional surface cyclogenesis possible Tuesday evening. Resulting surface low is then forecast to move across southwest KS/OK Panhandle into northwest OK/central KS by early Wednesday morning. ...Northeast OK/Southeast KS into Ozarks/Lower MO Valley... Modest low-level moisture advection is anticipated throughout the period from the southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau. By 00Z, mid 50s dewpoints will likely reach into central OK, with low 50s dewpoints stretching across southeast KS into west-central MO. Mid 70s temperatures are expected within the warm sector from central OK int southeast KS during the late afternoon, with slightly lower temperatures (i.e. highs in the low 70s) likely farther north across west-central MO. Most of the guidance suggests modest capping will remain in place amid these thermodynamic conditions, although an increase of a degree or two in either the temperature or dewpoints may be enough to eliminate the convective inhibition. Low-level confluence is anticipated within the warm sector, with some convergence on the dryline as well. These conditions could result in sufficient ascent for convective initiation, contingent on little to no convective inhibition. If initiation is realized, steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer vertical shear could support a few strong to severe storms. ...Mid MS Valley... Thunderstorms are possible overnight and into early Wednesday morning across portions of the Mid MS Valley, supported by large-scale ascent and increasing mid-level moisture attendant to the shortwave moving through the region. These storms will displaced north of the better mid-level flow, with a non-severe, multicellular mode anticipated. ..15_ows.. 03/11/2024 Read more