Severe Storms

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Mon Jan 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S., Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Discussion... In the wake of a broad, but weakening, cyclone forecast to slowly migrate east-northeast of the lower Great Lakes region, and downstream of amplified ridging within the split westerlies across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific, mid-level troughing appears likely to encompass much of North America through this period. A couple of significant short wave perturbations digging to the east of the ridging will contribute to the maintenance of this troughing. One, emerging from the northern mid-latitude Pacific, is forecast to progress inland of Pacific Northwest through the Sierra Nevada into eastern Great Basin/Colorado Plateau vicinity by 12Z Thursday. Another, emerging from the northern Canadian Arctic vicinity, is forecast to turn southward into the Canadian Prairies and Rockies. In lower levels, a cold front trailing the lead cyclone appears likely to advance away from much of the Atlantic Seaboard, while stalling and weakening near the Florida Straits/Keys vicinity through the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. At the same time, surface troughing may begin to deepen to the lee of the southern Rockies through the lower Rio Grande Valley, accompanied by modest boundary layer moistening and northward return across the western Gulf of Mexico. This may include surface dew point increases to around 60F near Texas coastal areas by late Wednesday night, beneath relatively warm, dry and capping lower/mid-tropospheric air. Beneath cold air across the Pacific Northwest, which may include an inland spreading cold core (around -35 C at 500 mb), some convection capable of producing lightning appears possible near coastal areas early in the period. Inland of the coast, probabilities for lightning appear increasingly negligible, due to a lingering generally cooler and drier boundary layer. However, convection with a flash or two of lightning might not be out of the question across parts of the northern Sierra Nevada and Sacramento Valley Wednesday afternoon and evening. ..Kerr.. 01/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 PM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN FLORIDA...PARTS OF THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may impact much of the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic Coast states Tuesday, accompanied by a risk for very strong and damaging wind gusts and a few strong tornadoes. ...Synopsis... Within the prevailing split flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific, it still appears that mid/upper ridging will undergo amplification through this period. As this occurs, mid-level troughing is forecast to begin to dig across Pacific Northwest, and a strong downstream trough, initially approaching the Mississippi Valley, likely will remain progressive. Strong cyclogenesis appears likely to proceed from the Mississippi Valley through much of the eastern U.S., with the center of the primary surface cyclone generally forecast to track from east central Missouri through lower Michigan by late Tuesday night. Models indicate that the mid/upper trough axis will take on a negative tilt while pivoting northeast of the Mississippi Valley, with difluent flow aloft overspreading much of the Southeast. Further intensification of lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields may include 50-90+ kt southerly to southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer overspreading much of the eastern Gulf/southern Atlantic Coast region during the day Tuesday, accompanied by a moistening warm sector. ...Southeast... Associated with the strong synoptic forcing for ascent, a strong to severe squall line, perhaps closely preceded by discrete supercell development, may be ongoing ahead of an eastward surging cold front across parts of central/southern Alabama into the north central Gulf of Mexico at 12Z Tuesday. With at least a continuing corridor of sufficient pre-frontal destabilization, the forcing for ascent likely will maintain this convective development across much of the eastern Gulf/southern Atlantic Coast region by Tuesday evening. While inflow off the Atlantic into the Carolinas will contribute to pre-frontal low-level moistening even if the Gulf moist inflow becomes cut off, relatively warm layers aloft with weak lapse rates model likely will tend to at least limit the degree of boundary-layer destabilization. However, latest forecast soundings from both the 03Z Rapid Refresh and NAM do appear to suggest that thermodynamic profiles immediately ahead of the line will continue to become at least marginally sufficient to maintain a line of surface-based or near surface-based storms. It is still possible that the line of convection may undergo at least some weakening across parts of Georgia and Florida during the morning or early afternoon, before intensifying once again across the Carolinas. However, given mean winds forecast on the order of 60-70+ kts in the lowest 6 km, downward mixing of higher momentum may remain sufficient to support widespread strong, damaging wind gusts. Given the strong to extreme low-level shear, developing meso-vortices within the line may pose a risk for tornadoes. Within the moistening return flow off the Atlantic, there is at least some signal within convection allowing guidance of increasing potential for discrete supercell development across the Carolina coastal plain by late Tuesday afternoon, aided by large-scale ascent associated with warm advection ahead of the squall line. In the presence of potentially very large, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, this may be accompanied by the risk for a couple of strong tornadoes. It remains unclear how much of a focus a remnant baroclinic zone, extending through much of the eastern Georgia and Carolina Piedmont, may become for severe thunderstorm development. ..Kerr.. 01/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 PM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN FLORIDA...PARTS OF THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may impact much of the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic Coast states Tuesday, accompanied by a risk for very strong and damaging wind gusts and a few strong tornadoes. ...Synopsis... Within the prevailing split flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific, it still appears that mid/upper ridging will undergo amplification through this period. As this occurs, mid-level troughing is forecast to begin to dig across Pacific Northwest, and a strong downstream trough, initially approaching the Mississippi Valley, likely will remain progressive. Strong cyclogenesis appears likely to proceed from the Mississippi Valley through much of the eastern U.S., with the center of the primary surface cyclone generally forecast to track from east central Missouri through lower Michigan by late Tuesday night. Models indicate that the mid/upper trough axis will take on a negative tilt while pivoting northeast of the Mississippi Valley, with difluent flow aloft overspreading much of the Southeast. Further intensification of lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields may include 50-90+ kt southerly to southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer overspreading much of the eastern Gulf/southern Atlantic Coast region during the day Tuesday, accompanied by a moistening warm sector. ...Southeast... Associated with the strong synoptic forcing for ascent, a strong to severe squall line, perhaps closely preceded by discrete supercell development, may be ongoing ahead of an eastward surging cold front across parts of central/southern Alabama into the north central Gulf of Mexico at 12Z Tuesday. With at least a continuing corridor of sufficient pre-frontal destabilization, the forcing for ascent likely will maintain this convective development across much of the eastern Gulf/southern Atlantic Coast region by Tuesday evening. While inflow off the Atlantic into the Carolinas will contribute to pre-frontal low-level moistening even if the Gulf moist inflow becomes cut off, relatively warm layers aloft with weak lapse rates model likely will tend to at least limit the degree of boundary-layer destabilization. However, latest forecast soundings from both the 03Z Rapid Refresh and NAM do appear to suggest that thermodynamic profiles immediately ahead of the line will continue to become at least marginally sufficient to maintain a line of surface-based or near surface-based storms. It is still possible that the line of convection may undergo at least some weakening across parts of Georgia and Florida during the morning or early afternoon, before intensifying once again across the Carolinas. However, given mean winds forecast on the order of 60-70+ kts in the lowest 6 km, downward mixing of higher momentum may remain sufficient to support widespread strong, damaging wind gusts. Given the strong to extreme low-level shear, developing meso-vortices within the line may pose a risk for tornadoes. Within the moistening return flow off the Atlantic, there is at least some signal within convection allowing guidance of increasing potential for discrete supercell development across the Carolina coastal plain by late Tuesday afternoon, aided by large-scale ascent associated with warm advection ahead of the squall line. In the presence of potentially very large, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, this may be accompanied by the risk for a couple of strong tornadoes. It remains unclear how much of a focus a remnant baroclinic zone, extending through much of the eastern Georgia and Carolina Piedmont, may become for severe thunderstorm development. ..Kerr.. 01/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of strong wind gusts and tornadoes are expected from southeast Texas across the central Gulf Coast this afternoon into early Tuesday morning. Greatest severe potential is anticipated overnight from southeast Louisiana across southern Mississippi and southern Alabama, and into the western Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... A potent, positive-tilt mid-level shortwave centered over the Four Corners will undergo significant amplification as it emerges over the Southern Plains through the forecast period. South of the primary vort max, a 90-100 kt H5 jet streak will round the base of the trough and move quickly eastward, intensifying further, as it overspreads the mid-MS valley into early Tuesday. Coincident with the robust forcing aloft, a lee cyclone over northeast NM will quickly deepen below 1000 mb as it tracks eastward over the TX Panhandle and OK. South of the low, strong low-level mass response will rapidly advect a modifying Gulf air mass northward into portions of central/southeast TX and eventually across the central Gulf Coast. Strong low-level warm advection ahead of the intensifying upper-level and surface cyclone will support numerous showers and thunderstorms across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley today into early morning Tuesday. Strong kinematics and sufficient buoyancy within the onshore warm sector will support organized storms capable of all hazards, including a couple strong tornadoes. ...North TX into the ArkLaTex... Showers and embedded thunderstorms should be ongoing early this morning within a strong low-level warm advection regime ahead of the surface low and cold front in western north TX/OK. Area model soundings show weak and elevated buoyancy profiles atop a mostly stable surface layer ahead of the deeper returning surface moisture. Despite the marginal buoyancy, a narrow line of forced convection may evolve along the cold front and become capable of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts as it moves eastward from north TX into far southern AR and northern LA. ...Southeast TX to southwest LA... As the surface low continues to deepen over OK and western North TX, strong low-level mass response will rapidly draw a modifying Gulf air mass northward into south-central and southeast TX. Surface dewpoints will gradually rise into the low to mid 60s F as the air mass moves farther inland. Widespread cloud cover and warm advection showers will limit solar heating, but inhibition should weaken through the early afternoon as deep-layer ascent increases and gradual warming of the boundary layer supports 1200-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Scattered thunderstorms should gradually evolve from the initial low-topped showers within increasingly strong low-level and deep-layer shear profiles sufficient for supercells. A secondary surface low along the advancing warm front may also locally back surface winds, favoring strong low-level mesocyclones with the potential for damaging gusts and a few tornadoes. Additional storms are likely to develop later in the afternoon as the surface cold front approaches from the west. Behind the secondary surface low, veered low-level flow suggests a more linear orientation may evolve with upscale growth of the new convection into a broken line/QLCS with greater potential for damaging wind gusts. Still, 0-1 km shear in excess of 30 kt may support some risk for line embedded circulations with enhanced damaging gust or tornado potential into the evening and overnight hours. ...Central Gulf Coast tonight into early Tuesday... An initial round of elevated showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop by early to mid afternoon over parts of the central Gulf coast ahead of the warm front moving onshore. As the Gulf air mass gradually moves inland, increasing surface dewpoints will allow for moderate buoyancy to develop coincident with a strong increase in mid and low-level shear profiles ahead of the advancing upper trough. A 60-70 kt low-level jet will continue to support strong warm advection and the development of additional thunderstorms ahead of the main convective line to the west into the evening and overnight hours. A few supercells may evolve ahead of the line over parts of southern MS, southwest AL and the western FL Panhandle within a very strongly sheared environment. STP values of 3-5 on area model soundings suggest the potential for a couple of strong tornadoes. Damaging wind gusts and line-embedded tornadoes also appear likely as the QLCS advances quickly from west to east. ..Lyons/Grams.. 01/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of strong wind gusts and tornadoes are expected from southeast Texas across the central Gulf Coast this afternoon into early Tuesday morning. Greatest severe potential is anticipated overnight from southeast Louisiana across southern Mississippi and southern Alabama, and into the western Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... A potent, positive-tilt mid-level shortwave centered over the Four Corners will undergo significant amplification as it emerges over the Southern Plains through the forecast period. South of the primary vort max, a 90-100 kt H5 jet streak will round the base of the trough and move quickly eastward, intensifying further, as it overspreads the mid-MS valley into early Tuesday. Coincident with the robust forcing aloft, a lee cyclone over northeast NM will quickly deepen below 1000 mb as it tracks eastward over the TX Panhandle and OK. South of the low, strong low-level mass response will rapidly advect a modifying Gulf air mass northward into portions of central/southeast TX and eventually across the central Gulf Coast. Strong low-level warm advection ahead of the intensifying upper-level and surface cyclone will support numerous showers and thunderstorms across the southern Plains and lower MS Valley today into early morning Tuesday. Strong kinematics and sufficient buoyancy within the onshore warm sector will support organized storms capable of all hazards, including a couple strong tornadoes. ...North TX into the ArkLaTex... Showers and embedded thunderstorms should be ongoing early this morning within a strong low-level warm advection regime ahead of the surface low and cold front in western north TX/OK. Area model soundings show weak and elevated buoyancy profiles atop a mostly stable surface layer ahead of the deeper returning surface moisture. Despite the marginal buoyancy, a narrow line of forced convection may evolve along the cold front and become capable of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts as it moves eastward from north TX into far southern AR and northern LA. ...Southeast TX to southwest LA... As the surface low continues to deepen over OK and western North TX, strong low-level mass response will rapidly draw a modifying Gulf air mass northward into south-central and southeast TX. Surface dewpoints will gradually rise into the low to mid 60s F as the air mass moves farther inland. Widespread cloud cover and warm advection showers will limit solar heating, but inhibition should weaken through the early afternoon as deep-layer ascent increases and gradual warming of the boundary layer supports 1200-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Scattered thunderstorms should gradually evolve from the initial low-topped showers within increasingly strong low-level and deep-layer shear profiles sufficient for supercells. A secondary surface low along the advancing warm front may also locally back surface winds, favoring strong low-level mesocyclones with the potential for damaging gusts and a few tornadoes. Additional storms are likely to develop later in the afternoon as the surface cold front approaches from the west. Behind the secondary surface low, veered low-level flow suggests a more linear orientation may evolve with upscale growth of the new convection into a broken line/QLCS with greater potential for damaging wind gusts. Still, 0-1 km shear in excess of 30 kt may support some risk for line embedded circulations with enhanced damaging gust or tornado potential into the evening and overnight hours. ...Central Gulf Coast tonight into early Tuesday... An initial round of elevated showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop by early to mid afternoon over parts of the central Gulf coast ahead of the warm front moving onshore. As the Gulf air mass gradually moves inland, increasing surface dewpoints will allow for moderate buoyancy to develop coincident with a strong increase in mid and low-level shear profiles ahead of the advancing upper trough. A 60-70 kt low-level jet will continue to support strong warm advection and the development of additional thunderstorms ahead of the main convective line to the west into the evening and overnight hours. A few supercells may evolve ahead of the line over parts of southern MS, southwest AL and the western FL Panhandle within a very strongly sheared environment. STP values of 3-5 on area model soundings suggest the potential for a couple of strong tornadoes. Damaging wind gusts and line-embedded tornadoes also appear likely as the QLCS advances quickly from west to east. ..Lyons/Grams.. 01/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 PM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of gusty/damaging winds are possible late tonight over portions of western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma. ...01z update... An intensifying upper trough over AZ is progged to continue amplifying as it makes its way over the southern Rockies this evening and into late tonight. A 90-100 kt 500 mb jet will emerge over the southern Plains around 06z, helping to rapidly deepen a surface low over northeast NM and the northwestern TX/OK Panhandles. Strong low-level warm advection ahead of the surface low will aid in developing low-topped thunderstorms across West TX and into parts of far southwest OK between 8-12z. Likely elevated above the surface stable layer, and with limited buoyancy owing to poor boundary-layer dewpoints in the 30-40s F, storms are not expected to be overly intense. However, very strong low and mid-level wind fields ahead of the trough/low my support the risk for occasional gusty/damaging winds with the line of storms. Will maintain the MRGL risk across west-central TX with a slight northward nudge into southwest OK for the latest CAM guidance. ..Lyons/Grams.. 01/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 PM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of gusty/damaging winds are possible late tonight over portions of western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma. ...01z update... An intensifying upper trough over AZ is progged to continue amplifying as it makes its way over the southern Rockies this evening and into late tonight. A 90-100 kt 500 mb jet will emerge over the southern Plains around 06z, helping to rapidly deepen a surface low over northeast NM and the northwestern TX/OK Panhandles. Strong low-level warm advection ahead of the surface low will aid in developing low-topped thunderstorms across West TX and into parts of far southwest OK between 8-12z. Likely elevated above the surface stable layer, and with limited buoyancy owing to poor boundary-layer dewpoints in the 30-40s F, storms are not expected to be overly intense. However, very strong low and mid-level wind fields ahead of the trough/low my support the risk for occasional gusty/damaging winds with the line of storms. Will maintain the MRGL risk across west-central TX with a slight northward nudge into southwest OK for the latest CAM guidance. ..Lyons/Grams.. 01/08/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Jan 7 23:40:06 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jan 7 23:40:06 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0312 PM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A strong upper-level trough will lift northeastward out of the Midwest and into the Northeast through the middle of the new week. Another strong trough will eject into the southern Plains late next week. Thereafter, uncertainty in the upper-level pattern begins to increase. At the surface, cold air will be present across much of the northern/central CONUS and make progress southward with each successive trough passing. Surface low development within the central/southern High Plains will lead to periods of dry/windy conditions across parts of the Trans-Pecos. As cold fronts move southward, dry and windy conditions will also be possible within the Rio Grande Valley and South Texas. Some increase in fire weather concerns are possible this coming week as models continue to show minimal precipitation in these areas. However, until fuels dry sufficiently critical fire weather appears unlikely. ..Wendt.. 01/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0312 PM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A strong upper-level trough will lift northeastward out of the Midwest and into the Northeast through the middle of the new week. Another strong trough will eject into the southern Plains late next week. Thereafter, uncertainty in the upper-level pattern begins to increase. At the surface, cold air will be present across much of the northern/central CONUS and make progress southward with each successive trough passing. Surface low development within the central/southern High Plains will lead to periods of dry/windy conditions across parts of the Trans-Pecos. As cold fronts move southward, dry and windy conditions will also be possible within the Rio Grande Valley and South Texas. Some increase in fire weather concerns are possible this coming week as models continue to show minimal precipitation in these areas. However, until fuels dry sufficiently critical fire weather appears unlikely. ..Wendt.. 01/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0312 PM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A strong upper-level trough will lift northeastward out of the Midwest and into the Northeast through the middle of the new week. Another strong trough will eject into the southern Plains late next week. Thereafter, uncertainty in the upper-level pattern begins to increase. At the surface, cold air will be present across much of the northern/central CONUS and make progress southward with each successive trough passing. Surface low development within the central/southern High Plains will lead to periods of dry/windy conditions across parts of the Trans-Pecos. As cold fronts move southward, dry and windy conditions will also be possible within the Rio Grande Valley and South Texas. Some increase in fire weather concerns are possible this coming week as models continue to show minimal precipitation in these areas. However, until fuels dry sufficiently critical fire weather appears unlikely. ..Wendt.. 01/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0312 PM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A strong upper-level trough will lift northeastward out of the Midwest and into the Northeast through the middle of the new week. Another strong trough will eject into the southern Plains late next week. Thereafter, uncertainty in the upper-level pattern begins to increase. At the surface, cold air will be present across much of the northern/central CONUS and make progress southward with each successive trough passing. Surface low development within the central/southern High Plains will lead to periods of dry/windy conditions across parts of the Trans-Pecos. As cold fronts move southward, dry and windy conditions will also be possible within the Rio Grande Valley and South Texas. Some increase in fire weather concerns are possible this coming week as models continue to show minimal precipitation in these areas. However, until fuels dry sufficiently critical fire weather appears unlikely. ..Wendt.. 01/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0312 PM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A strong upper-level trough will lift northeastward out of the Midwest and into the Northeast through the middle of the new week. Another strong trough will eject into the southern Plains late next week. Thereafter, uncertainty in the upper-level pattern begins to increase. At the surface, cold air will be present across much of the northern/central CONUS and make progress southward with each successive trough passing. Surface low development within the central/southern High Plains will lead to periods of dry/windy conditions across parts of the Trans-Pecos. As cold fronts move southward, dry and windy conditions will also be possible within the Rio Grande Valley and South Texas. Some increase in fire weather concerns are possible this coming week as models continue to show minimal precipitation in these areas. However, until fuels dry sufficiently critical fire weather appears unlikely. ..Wendt.. 01/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0312 PM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A strong upper-level trough will lift northeastward out of the Midwest and into the Northeast through the middle of the new week. Another strong trough will eject into the southern Plains late next week. Thereafter, uncertainty in the upper-level pattern begins to increase. At the surface, cold air will be present across much of the northern/central CONUS and make progress southward with each successive trough passing. Surface low development within the central/southern High Plains will lead to periods of dry/windy conditions across parts of the Trans-Pecos. As cold fronts move southward, dry and windy conditions will also be possible within the Rio Grande Valley and South Texas. Some increase in fire weather concerns are possible this coming week as models continue to show minimal precipitation in these areas. However, until fuels dry sufficiently critical fire weather appears unlikely. ..Wendt.. 01/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of gusty/damaging winds are possible late tonight over portions of western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma. ...20Z Update... Previous forecast reasoning remains valid with no changes needed. ..Mosier.. 01/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024/ ...TX/OK... A vigorous shortwave trough currently over southern NV will amplify/deepen tonight as it digs into the southern Rockies. Meanwhile, an intense southerly low-level jet will develop ahead of the system over TX, resulting in enhanced low-level warm advection and lift - along with weak destabilization. The result will likely be the development of a line of fast-moving showers and thunderstorms after midnight over parts of west TX and southwest OK. Forecast soundings show very weak thermodynamics, suggesting the updraft strength will be modest. However, given the strong low and upper level support, a narrow-line of forced convection may become capable of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts (mainly 09-12z). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of gusty/damaging winds are possible late tonight over portions of western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma. ...20Z Update... Previous forecast reasoning remains valid with no changes needed. ..Mosier.. 01/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024/ ...TX/OK... A vigorous shortwave trough currently over southern NV will amplify/deepen tonight as it digs into the southern Rockies. Meanwhile, an intense southerly low-level jet will develop ahead of the system over TX, resulting in enhanced low-level warm advection and lift - along with weak destabilization. The result will likely be the development of a line of fast-moving showers and thunderstorms after midnight over parts of west TX and southwest OK. Forecast soundings show very weak thermodynamics, suggesting the updraft strength will be modest. However, given the strong low and upper level support, a narrow-line of forced convection may become capable of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts (mainly 09-12z). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of gusty/damaging winds are possible late tonight over portions of western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma. ...20Z Update... Previous forecast reasoning remains valid with no changes needed. ..Mosier.. 01/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024/ ...TX/OK... A vigorous shortwave trough currently over southern NV will amplify/deepen tonight as it digs into the southern Rockies. Meanwhile, an intense southerly low-level jet will develop ahead of the system over TX, resulting in enhanced low-level warm advection and lift - along with weak destabilization. The result will likely be the development of a line of fast-moving showers and thunderstorms after midnight over parts of west TX and southwest OK. Forecast soundings show very weak thermodynamics, suggesting the updraft strength will be modest. However, given the strong low and upper level support, a narrow-line of forced convection may become capable of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts (mainly 09-12z). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of gusty/damaging winds are possible late tonight over portions of western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma. ...20Z Update... Previous forecast reasoning remains valid with no changes needed. ..Mosier.. 01/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024/ ...TX/OK... A vigorous shortwave trough currently over southern NV will amplify/deepen tonight as it digs into the southern Rockies. Meanwhile, an intense southerly low-level jet will develop ahead of the system over TX, resulting in enhanced low-level warm advection and lift - along with weak destabilization. The result will likely be the development of a line of fast-moving showers and thunderstorms after midnight over parts of west TX and southwest OK. Forecast soundings show very weak thermodynamics, suggesting the updraft strength will be modest. However, given the strong low and upper level support, a narrow-line of forced convection may become capable of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts (mainly 09-12z). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of gusty/damaging winds are possible late tonight over portions of western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma. ...20Z Update... Previous forecast reasoning remains valid with no changes needed. ..Mosier.. 01/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024/ ...TX/OK... A vigorous shortwave trough currently over southern NV will amplify/deepen tonight as it digs into the southern Rockies. Meanwhile, an intense southerly low-level jet will develop ahead of the system over TX, resulting in enhanced low-level warm advection and lift - along with weak destabilization. The result will likely be the development of a line of fast-moving showers and thunderstorms after midnight over parts of west TX and southwest OK. Forecast soundings show very weak thermodynamics, suggesting the updraft strength will be modest. However, given the strong low and upper level support, a narrow-line of forced convection may become capable of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts (mainly 09-12z). Read more