Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... Previous forecast reasoning remains valid with no changes needed. ..Mosier.. 01/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024/ Relatively cold and stable conditions are in place across the CONUS today, with the risk of thunderstorms rather low in most areas. There will be some continued risk of lightning flashes along the coast and coastal ranges of WA/OR through this evening as a strong upper trough and associated jet max move inland today. Strong onshore flow, orographic lift, and very cold temperatures aloft could also result in hail and gusty winds in the strongest cores, but no severe storms are expected. Other isolated lightning flashes are possible this afternoon and evening from the Sierras of central CA eastward across parts of NV/UT. This activity will mostly be in the form of snow showers as the aforementioned upper system approaches. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... Previous forecast reasoning remains valid with no changes needed. ..Mosier.. 01/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024/ Relatively cold and stable conditions are in place across the CONUS today, with the risk of thunderstorms rather low in most areas. There will be some continued risk of lightning flashes along the coast and coastal ranges of WA/OR through this evening as a strong upper trough and associated jet max move inland today. Strong onshore flow, orographic lift, and very cold temperatures aloft could also result in hail and gusty winds in the strongest cores, but no severe storms are expected. Other isolated lightning flashes are possible this afternoon and evening from the Sierras of central CA eastward across parts of NV/UT. This activity will mostly be in the form of snow showers as the aforementioned upper system approaches. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... Previous forecast reasoning remains valid with no changes needed. ..Mosier.. 01/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024/ Relatively cold and stable conditions are in place across the CONUS today, with the risk of thunderstorms rather low in most areas. There will be some continued risk of lightning flashes along the coast and coastal ranges of WA/OR through this evening as a strong upper trough and associated jet max move inland today. Strong onshore flow, orographic lift, and very cold temperatures aloft could also result in hail and gusty winds in the strongest cores, but no severe storms are expected. Other isolated lightning flashes are possible this afternoon and evening from the Sierras of central CA eastward across parts of NV/UT. This activity will mostly be in the form of snow showers as the aforementioned upper system approaches. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... Previous forecast reasoning remains valid with no changes needed. ..Mosier.. 01/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024/ Relatively cold and stable conditions are in place across the CONUS today, with the risk of thunderstorms rather low in most areas. There will be some continued risk of lightning flashes along the coast and coastal ranges of WA/OR through this evening as a strong upper trough and associated jet max move inland today. Strong onshore flow, orographic lift, and very cold temperatures aloft could also result in hail and gusty winds in the strongest cores, but no severe storms are expected. Other isolated lightning flashes are possible this afternoon and evening from the Sierras of central CA eastward across parts of NV/UT. This activity will mostly be in the form of snow showers as the aforementioned upper system approaches. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... Previous forecast reasoning remains valid with no changes needed. ..Mosier.. 01/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024/ Relatively cold and stable conditions are in place across the CONUS today, with the risk of thunderstorms rather low in most areas. There will be some continued risk of lightning flashes along the coast and coastal ranges of WA/OR through this evening as a strong upper trough and associated jet max move inland today. Strong onshore flow, orographic lift, and very cold temperatures aloft could also result in hail and gusty winds in the strongest cores, but no severe storms are expected. Other isolated lightning flashes are possible this afternoon and evening from the Sierras of central CA eastward across parts of NV/UT. This activity will mostly be in the form of snow showers as the aforementioned upper system approaches. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... Previous forecast reasoning remains valid with no changes needed. ..Mosier.. 01/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024/ Relatively cold and stable conditions are in place across the CONUS today, with the risk of thunderstorms rather low in most areas. There will be some continued risk of lightning flashes along the coast and coastal ranges of WA/OR through this evening as a strong upper trough and associated jet max move inland today. Strong onshore flow, orographic lift, and very cold temperatures aloft could also result in hail and gusty winds in the strongest cores, but no severe storms are expected. Other isolated lightning flashes are possible this afternoon and evening from the Sierras of central CA eastward across parts of NV/UT. This activity will mostly be in the form of snow showers as the aforementioned upper system approaches. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will intensify over the Southwest/northern Mexico on Thursday before quickly ejecting into the southern Plains by Friday morning. Strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Plains as a surface lee cyclone deepens over TX/OK. To the southwest of the low, very strong surface winds and low humidity are expected over parts of the TX Trans Pecos and Big Bend region. ...Texas Trans-Pecos... As the surface low intensifies through Thursday, low-level westerly winds will quickly increase across parts of southern NM and southwest TX. Dry and windy conditions, with gusts to 30-40 mph and RH below 20%, are expected to support a few hours of meteorological critical conditions in the Trans-Pecos. While so far fuel dryness has remained limited, several days of preceding dry/windy conditions suggest fine fuels may be dry enough to support some fire spread. With the expected overlap of gusty winds, low humidity and some drying of fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will intensify over the Southwest/northern Mexico on Thursday before quickly ejecting into the southern Plains by Friday morning. Strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Plains as a surface lee cyclone deepens over TX/OK. To the southwest of the low, very strong surface winds and low humidity are expected over parts of the TX Trans Pecos and Big Bend region. ...Texas Trans-Pecos... As the surface low intensifies through Thursday, low-level westerly winds will quickly increase across parts of southern NM and southwest TX. Dry and windy conditions, with gusts to 30-40 mph and RH below 20%, are expected to support a few hours of meteorological critical conditions in the Trans-Pecos. While so far fuel dryness has remained limited, several days of preceding dry/windy conditions suggest fine fuels may be dry enough to support some fire spread. With the expected overlap of gusty winds, low humidity and some drying of fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will intensify over the Southwest/northern Mexico on Thursday before quickly ejecting into the southern Plains by Friday morning. Strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Plains as a surface lee cyclone deepens over TX/OK. To the southwest of the low, very strong surface winds and low humidity are expected over parts of the TX Trans Pecos and Big Bend region. ...Texas Trans-Pecos... As the surface low intensifies through Thursday, low-level westerly winds will quickly increase across parts of southern NM and southwest TX. Dry and windy conditions, with gusts to 30-40 mph and RH below 20%, are expected to support a few hours of meteorological critical conditions in the Trans-Pecos. While so far fuel dryness has remained limited, several days of preceding dry/windy conditions suggest fine fuels may be dry enough to support some fire spread. With the expected overlap of gusty winds, low humidity and some drying of fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will intensify over the Southwest/northern Mexico on Thursday before quickly ejecting into the southern Plains by Friday morning. Strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Plains as a surface lee cyclone deepens over TX/OK. To the southwest of the low, very strong surface winds and low humidity are expected over parts of the TX Trans Pecos and Big Bend region. ...Texas Trans-Pecos... As the surface low intensifies through Thursday, low-level westerly winds will quickly increase across parts of southern NM and southwest TX. Dry and windy conditions, with gusts to 30-40 mph and RH below 20%, are expected to support a few hours of meteorological critical conditions in the Trans-Pecos. While so far fuel dryness has remained limited, several days of preceding dry/windy conditions suggest fine fuels may be dry enough to support some fire spread. With the expected overlap of gusty winds, low humidity and some drying of fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will intensify over the Southwest/northern Mexico on Thursday before quickly ejecting into the southern Plains by Friday morning. Strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Plains as a surface lee cyclone deepens over TX/OK. To the southwest of the low, very strong surface winds and low humidity are expected over parts of the TX Trans Pecos and Big Bend region. ...Texas Trans-Pecos... As the surface low intensifies through Thursday, low-level westerly winds will quickly increase across parts of southern NM and southwest TX. Dry and windy conditions, with gusts to 30-40 mph and RH below 20%, are expected to support a few hours of meteorological critical conditions in the Trans-Pecos. While so far fuel dryness has remained limited, several days of preceding dry/windy conditions suggest fine fuels may be dry enough to support some fire spread. With the expected overlap of gusty winds, low humidity and some drying of fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will intensify over the Southwest/northern Mexico on Thursday before quickly ejecting into the southern Plains by Friday morning. Strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Plains as a surface lee cyclone deepens over TX/OK. To the southwest of the low, very strong surface winds and low humidity are expected over parts of the TX Trans Pecos and Big Bend region. ...Texas Trans-Pecos... As the surface low intensifies through Thursday, low-level westerly winds will quickly increase across parts of southern NM and southwest TX. Dry and windy conditions, with gusts to 30-40 mph and RH below 20%, are expected to support a few hours of meteorological critical conditions in the Trans-Pecos. While so far fuel dryness has remained limited, several days of preceding dry/windy conditions suggest fine fuels may be dry enough to support some fire spread. With the expected overlap of gusty winds, low humidity and some drying of fuels, elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FROM CENTRAL/EAST TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development is possible Thursday night into Friday morning from central and east Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Strong gusts, and tornadoes are the primary severe threats. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly across the Southwest/northern Mexico and into the southern Plains on Thursday. This shortwave will be accompanied by an intense mid-level jet streak, characterized by 500-mb flow from 100 to 120 kt. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated over the central High Plains ahead of this wave, with the resultant surface low then moving eastward across OK into the Ozark Plateau Thursday night into early Friday morning. Mass response associated with the approaching shortwave and deepening surface low will bring modified low-level moisture into central/east TX and the Lower MS Valley, with low 60s dewpoints covering much of the region by Thursday night. This increasing low-level moisture will result in modest buoyancy ahead of the shortwave and attendant cold front, with strong to severe thunderstorms possible Thursday night into Friday morning from central/east TX into the Lower MS Valley. ...Central/East TX into the Lower MS Valley... Air mass modification is anticipated throughout the day, with temperatures and dewpoints beginning the day in the low 30s to upper 40s across much of the region. By late Thursday afternoon, temperatures will likely be in the upper 60s/low 70s with dewpoints in the upper 50s across most of the region. Some lower 60s dewpoints are possible across southeast TX and southwest LA. The cold front will still be west of this better low-level moisture until Thursday night, with some additional low-level moisture advection possible until interaction with the cold front begins around 03-06Z. Initial storm development in anticipated around 03-06Z over central into north TX, with the storms then generally moving quickly northeastward along and ahead of the eastward-moving cold front. Given the timing of the shortwave and cold front, buoyancy will likely be limited by nocturnal cooling and associated stabilization. Even so, cooling aloft and low 60s dewpoints should still support enough buoyancy for deep updrafts and thunderstorms. In contrast to the marginal thermodynamics, strong kinematics, with 50-60 kt 850-mb flow beneath 90-110 kt at 500-mb, will be in place. These robust wind fields will support long hodographs with notable low-level veering, supportive of fast storm motion and organized storm structures. Given the anticipated linear mode and likelihood for shallow remaining low-level stability, primary severe risk will be strong gusts, which should be able to penetrate any low-level stability. Hail is possible as well, particularly with elevated multicellular activity ahead of the cold front and north of the warm sector. Tornadoes are possible as well, particularly with eastern extent into the Arklatex and central LA where greater low-level moisture should reduce any low-level stability. Anticipated linear mode suggest any tornadoes would likely be associated with QLCS circulations, but some more cellular development ahead of the line cannot be ruled out. Any pre-frontal updrafts would likely be undercut quickly by the eastward moving front. Additionally, a corridor of relatively greater severe potential may exist from northeast TX across the Arklatex into southern AR and northern LA. Here, the quick northeastward progression of a secondary surface low across the region may augment low-level ascent enough to deeper, more organized, surface-based updrafts. ..Mosier.. 01/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FROM CENTRAL/EAST TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development is possible Thursday night into Friday morning from central and east Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Strong gusts, and tornadoes are the primary severe threats. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly across the Southwest/northern Mexico and into the southern Plains on Thursday. This shortwave will be accompanied by an intense mid-level jet streak, characterized by 500-mb flow from 100 to 120 kt. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated over the central High Plains ahead of this wave, with the resultant surface low then moving eastward across OK into the Ozark Plateau Thursday night into early Friday morning. Mass response associated with the approaching shortwave and deepening surface low will bring modified low-level moisture into central/east TX and the Lower MS Valley, with low 60s dewpoints covering much of the region by Thursday night. This increasing low-level moisture will result in modest buoyancy ahead of the shortwave and attendant cold front, with strong to severe thunderstorms possible Thursday night into Friday morning from central/east TX into the Lower MS Valley. ...Central/East TX into the Lower MS Valley... Air mass modification is anticipated throughout the day, with temperatures and dewpoints beginning the day in the low 30s to upper 40s across much of the region. By late Thursday afternoon, temperatures will likely be in the upper 60s/low 70s with dewpoints in the upper 50s across most of the region. Some lower 60s dewpoints are possible across southeast TX and southwest LA. The cold front will still be west of this better low-level moisture until Thursday night, with some additional low-level moisture advection possible until interaction with the cold front begins around 03-06Z. Initial storm development in anticipated around 03-06Z over central into north TX, with the storms then generally moving quickly northeastward along and ahead of the eastward-moving cold front. Given the timing of the shortwave and cold front, buoyancy will likely be limited by nocturnal cooling and associated stabilization. Even so, cooling aloft and low 60s dewpoints should still support enough buoyancy for deep updrafts and thunderstorms. In contrast to the marginal thermodynamics, strong kinematics, with 50-60 kt 850-mb flow beneath 90-110 kt at 500-mb, will be in place. These robust wind fields will support long hodographs with notable low-level veering, supportive of fast storm motion and organized storm structures. Given the anticipated linear mode and likelihood for shallow remaining low-level stability, primary severe risk will be strong gusts, which should be able to penetrate any low-level stability. Hail is possible as well, particularly with elevated multicellular activity ahead of the cold front and north of the warm sector. Tornadoes are possible as well, particularly with eastern extent into the Arklatex and central LA where greater low-level moisture should reduce any low-level stability. Anticipated linear mode suggest any tornadoes would likely be associated with QLCS circulations, but some more cellular development ahead of the line cannot be ruled out. Any pre-frontal updrafts would likely be undercut quickly by the eastward moving front. Additionally, a corridor of relatively greater severe potential may exist from northeast TX across the Arklatex into southern AR and northern LA. Here, the quick northeastward progression of a secondary surface low across the region may augment low-level ascent enough to deeper, more organized, surface-based updrafts. ..Mosier.. 01/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FROM CENTRAL/EAST TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development is possible Thursday night into Friday morning from central and east Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Strong gusts, and tornadoes are the primary severe threats. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly across the Southwest/northern Mexico and into the southern Plains on Thursday. This shortwave will be accompanied by an intense mid-level jet streak, characterized by 500-mb flow from 100 to 120 kt. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated over the central High Plains ahead of this wave, with the resultant surface low then moving eastward across OK into the Ozark Plateau Thursday night into early Friday morning. Mass response associated with the approaching shortwave and deepening surface low will bring modified low-level moisture into central/east TX and the Lower MS Valley, with low 60s dewpoints covering much of the region by Thursday night. This increasing low-level moisture will result in modest buoyancy ahead of the shortwave and attendant cold front, with strong to severe thunderstorms possible Thursday night into Friday morning from central/east TX into the Lower MS Valley. ...Central/East TX into the Lower MS Valley... Air mass modification is anticipated throughout the day, with temperatures and dewpoints beginning the day in the low 30s to upper 40s across much of the region. By late Thursday afternoon, temperatures will likely be in the upper 60s/low 70s with dewpoints in the upper 50s across most of the region. Some lower 60s dewpoints are possible across southeast TX and southwest LA. The cold front will still be west of this better low-level moisture until Thursday night, with some additional low-level moisture advection possible until interaction with the cold front begins around 03-06Z. Initial storm development in anticipated around 03-06Z over central into north TX, with the storms then generally moving quickly northeastward along and ahead of the eastward-moving cold front. Given the timing of the shortwave and cold front, buoyancy will likely be limited by nocturnal cooling and associated stabilization. Even so, cooling aloft and low 60s dewpoints should still support enough buoyancy for deep updrafts and thunderstorms. In contrast to the marginal thermodynamics, strong kinematics, with 50-60 kt 850-mb flow beneath 90-110 kt at 500-mb, will be in place. These robust wind fields will support long hodographs with notable low-level veering, supportive of fast storm motion and organized storm structures. Given the anticipated linear mode and likelihood for shallow remaining low-level stability, primary severe risk will be strong gusts, which should be able to penetrate any low-level stability. Hail is possible as well, particularly with elevated multicellular activity ahead of the cold front and north of the warm sector. Tornadoes are possible as well, particularly with eastern extent into the Arklatex and central LA where greater low-level moisture should reduce any low-level stability. Anticipated linear mode suggest any tornadoes would likely be associated with QLCS circulations, but some more cellular development ahead of the line cannot be ruled out. Any pre-frontal updrafts would likely be undercut quickly by the eastward moving front. Additionally, a corridor of relatively greater severe potential may exist from northeast TX across the Arklatex into southern AR and northern LA. Here, the quick northeastward progression of a secondary surface low across the region may augment low-level ascent enough to deeper, more organized, surface-based updrafts. ..Mosier.. 01/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FROM CENTRAL/EAST TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development is possible Thursday night into Friday morning from central and east Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Strong gusts, and tornadoes are the primary severe threats. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly across the Southwest/northern Mexico and into the southern Plains on Thursday. This shortwave will be accompanied by an intense mid-level jet streak, characterized by 500-mb flow from 100 to 120 kt. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated over the central High Plains ahead of this wave, with the resultant surface low then moving eastward across OK into the Ozark Plateau Thursday night into early Friday morning. Mass response associated with the approaching shortwave and deepening surface low will bring modified low-level moisture into central/east TX and the Lower MS Valley, with low 60s dewpoints covering much of the region by Thursday night. This increasing low-level moisture will result in modest buoyancy ahead of the shortwave and attendant cold front, with strong to severe thunderstorms possible Thursday night into Friday morning from central/east TX into the Lower MS Valley. ...Central/East TX into the Lower MS Valley... Air mass modification is anticipated throughout the day, with temperatures and dewpoints beginning the day in the low 30s to upper 40s across much of the region. By late Thursday afternoon, temperatures will likely be in the upper 60s/low 70s with dewpoints in the upper 50s across most of the region. Some lower 60s dewpoints are possible across southeast TX and southwest LA. The cold front will still be west of this better low-level moisture until Thursday night, with some additional low-level moisture advection possible until interaction with the cold front begins around 03-06Z. Initial storm development in anticipated around 03-06Z over central into north TX, with the storms then generally moving quickly northeastward along and ahead of the eastward-moving cold front. Given the timing of the shortwave and cold front, buoyancy will likely be limited by nocturnal cooling and associated stabilization. Even so, cooling aloft and low 60s dewpoints should still support enough buoyancy for deep updrafts and thunderstorms. In contrast to the marginal thermodynamics, strong kinematics, with 50-60 kt 850-mb flow beneath 90-110 kt at 500-mb, will be in place. These robust wind fields will support long hodographs with notable low-level veering, supportive of fast storm motion and organized storm structures. Given the anticipated linear mode and likelihood for shallow remaining low-level stability, primary severe risk will be strong gusts, which should be able to penetrate any low-level stability. Hail is possible as well, particularly with elevated multicellular activity ahead of the cold front and north of the warm sector. Tornadoes are possible as well, particularly with eastern extent into the Arklatex and central LA where greater low-level moisture should reduce any low-level stability. Anticipated linear mode suggest any tornadoes would likely be associated with QLCS circulations, but some more cellular development ahead of the line cannot be ruled out. Any pre-frontal updrafts would likely be undercut quickly by the eastward moving front. Additionally, a corridor of relatively greater severe potential may exist from northeast TX across the Arklatex into southern AR and northern LA. Here, the quick northeastward progression of a secondary surface low across the region may augment low-level ascent enough to deeper, more organized, surface-based updrafts. ..Mosier.. 01/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FROM CENTRAL/EAST TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development is possible Thursday night into Friday morning from central and east Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Strong gusts, and tornadoes are the primary severe threats. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly across the Southwest/northern Mexico and into the southern Plains on Thursday. This shortwave will be accompanied by an intense mid-level jet streak, characterized by 500-mb flow from 100 to 120 kt. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated over the central High Plains ahead of this wave, with the resultant surface low then moving eastward across OK into the Ozark Plateau Thursday night into early Friday morning. Mass response associated with the approaching shortwave and deepening surface low will bring modified low-level moisture into central/east TX and the Lower MS Valley, with low 60s dewpoints covering much of the region by Thursday night. This increasing low-level moisture will result in modest buoyancy ahead of the shortwave and attendant cold front, with strong to severe thunderstorms possible Thursday night into Friday morning from central/east TX into the Lower MS Valley. ...Central/East TX into the Lower MS Valley... Air mass modification is anticipated throughout the day, with temperatures and dewpoints beginning the day in the low 30s to upper 40s across much of the region. By late Thursday afternoon, temperatures will likely be in the upper 60s/low 70s with dewpoints in the upper 50s across most of the region. Some lower 60s dewpoints are possible across southeast TX and southwest LA. The cold front will still be west of this better low-level moisture until Thursday night, with some additional low-level moisture advection possible until interaction with the cold front begins around 03-06Z. Initial storm development in anticipated around 03-06Z over central into north TX, with the storms then generally moving quickly northeastward along and ahead of the eastward-moving cold front. Given the timing of the shortwave and cold front, buoyancy will likely be limited by nocturnal cooling and associated stabilization. Even so, cooling aloft and low 60s dewpoints should still support enough buoyancy for deep updrafts and thunderstorms. In contrast to the marginal thermodynamics, strong kinematics, with 50-60 kt 850-mb flow beneath 90-110 kt at 500-mb, will be in place. These robust wind fields will support long hodographs with notable low-level veering, supportive of fast storm motion and organized storm structures. Given the anticipated linear mode and likelihood for shallow remaining low-level stability, primary severe risk will be strong gusts, which should be able to penetrate any low-level stability. Hail is possible as well, particularly with elevated multicellular activity ahead of the cold front and north of the warm sector. Tornadoes are possible as well, particularly with eastern extent into the Arklatex and central LA where greater low-level moisture should reduce any low-level stability. Anticipated linear mode suggest any tornadoes would likely be associated with QLCS circulations, but some more cellular development ahead of the line cannot be ruled out. Any pre-frontal updrafts would likely be undercut quickly by the eastward moving front. Additionally, a corridor of relatively greater severe potential may exist from northeast TX across the Arklatex into southern AR and northern LA. Here, the quick northeastward progression of a secondary surface low across the region may augment low-level ascent enough to deeper, more organized, surface-based updrafts. ..Mosier.. 01/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FROM CENTRAL/EAST TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development is possible Thursday night into Friday morning from central and east Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Strong gusts, and tornadoes are the primary severe threats. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly across the Southwest/northern Mexico and into the southern Plains on Thursday. This shortwave will be accompanied by an intense mid-level jet streak, characterized by 500-mb flow from 100 to 120 kt. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated over the central High Plains ahead of this wave, with the resultant surface low then moving eastward across OK into the Ozark Plateau Thursday night into early Friday morning. Mass response associated with the approaching shortwave and deepening surface low will bring modified low-level moisture into central/east TX and the Lower MS Valley, with low 60s dewpoints covering much of the region by Thursday night. This increasing low-level moisture will result in modest buoyancy ahead of the shortwave and attendant cold front, with strong to severe thunderstorms possible Thursday night into Friday morning from central/east TX into the Lower MS Valley. ...Central/East TX into the Lower MS Valley... Air mass modification is anticipated throughout the day, with temperatures and dewpoints beginning the day in the low 30s to upper 40s across much of the region. By late Thursday afternoon, temperatures will likely be in the upper 60s/low 70s with dewpoints in the upper 50s across most of the region. Some lower 60s dewpoints are possible across southeast TX and southwest LA. The cold front will still be west of this better low-level moisture until Thursday night, with some additional low-level moisture advection possible until interaction with the cold front begins around 03-06Z. Initial storm development in anticipated around 03-06Z over central into north TX, with the storms then generally moving quickly northeastward along and ahead of the eastward-moving cold front. Given the timing of the shortwave and cold front, buoyancy will likely be limited by nocturnal cooling and associated stabilization. Even so, cooling aloft and low 60s dewpoints should still support enough buoyancy for deep updrafts and thunderstorms. In contrast to the marginal thermodynamics, strong kinematics, with 50-60 kt 850-mb flow beneath 90-110 kt at 500-mb, will be in place. These robust wind fields will support long hodographs with notable low-level veering, supportive of fast storm motion and organized storm structures. Given the anticipated linear mode and likelihood for shallow remaining low-level stability, primary severe risk will be strong gusts, which should be able to penetrate any low-level stability. Hail is possible as well, particularly with elevated multicellular activity ahead of the cold front and north of the warm sector. Tornadoes are possible as well, particularly with eastern extent into the Arklatex and central LA where greater low-level moisture should reduce any low-level stability. Anticipated linear mode suggest any tornadoes would likely be associated with QLCS circulations, but some more cellular development ahead of the line cannot be ruled out. Any pre-frontal updrafts would likely be undercut quickly by the eastward moving front. Additionally, a corridor of relatively greater severe potential may exist from northeast TX across the Arklatex into southern AR and northern LA. Here, the quick northeastward progression of a secondary surface low across the region may augment low-level ascent enough to deeper, more organized, surface-based updrafts. ..Mosier.. 01/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FROM CENTRAL/EAST TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development is possible Thursday night into Friday morning from central and east Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Strong gusts, and tornadoes are the primary severe threats. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly across the Southwest/northern Mexico and into the southern Plains on Thursday. This shortwave will be accompanied by an intense mid-level jet streak, characterized by 500-mb flow from 100 to 120 kt. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated over the central High Plains ahead of this wave, with the resultant surface low then moving eastward across OK into the Ozark Plateau Thursday night into early Friday morning. Mass response associated with the approaching shortwave and deepening surface low will bring modified low-level moisture into central/east TX and the Lower MS Valley, with low 60s dewpoints covering much of the region by Thursday night. This increasing low-level moisture will result in modest buoyancy ahead of the shortwave and attendant cold front, with strong to severe thunderstorms possible Thursday night into Friday morning from central/east TX into the Lower MS Valley. ...Central/East TX into the Lower MS Valley... Air mass modification is anticipated throughout the day, with temperatures and dewpoints beginning the day in the low 30s to upper 40s across much of the region. By late Thursday afternoon, temperatures will likely be in the upper 60s/low 70s with dewpoints in the upper 50s across most of the region. Some lower 60s dewpoints are possible across southeast TX and southwest LA. The cold front will still be west of this better low-level moisture until Thursday night, with some additional low-level moisture advection possible until interaction with the cold front begins around 03-06Z. Initial storm development in anticipated around 03-06Z over central into north TX, with the storms then generally moving quickly northeastward along and ahead of the eastward-moving cold front. Given the timing of the shortwave and cold front, buoyancy will likely be limited by nocturnal cooling and associated stabilization. Even so, cooling aloft and low 60s dewpoints should still support enough buoyancy for deep updrafts and thunderstorms. In contrast to the marginal thermodynamics, strong kinematics, with 50-60 kt 850-mb flow beneath 90-110 kt at 500-mb, will be in place. These robust wind fields will support long hodographs with notable low-level veering, supportive of fast storm motion and organized storm structures. Given the anticipated linear mode and likelihood for shallow remaining low-level stability, primary severe risk will be strong gusts, which should be able to penetrate any low-level stability. Hail is possible as well, particularly with elevated multicellular activity ahead of the cold front and north of the warm sector. Tornadoes are possible as well, particularly with eastern extent into the Arklatex and central LA where greater low-level moisture should reduce any low-level stability. Anticipated linear mode suggest any tornadoes would likely be associated with QLCS circulations, but some more cellular development ahead of the line cannot be ruled out. Any pre-frontal updrafts would likely be undercut quickly by the eastward moving front. Additionally, a corridor of relatively greater severe potential may exist from northeast TX across the Arklatex into southern AR and northern LA. Here, the quick northeastward progression of a secondary surface low across the region may augment low-level ascent enough to deeper, more organized, surface-based updrafts. ..Mosier.. 01/10/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, mostly zonal flow aloft will remain in place over much of the southern and central CONUS today ahead of a deepening Pacific trough. The strong flow aloft will support the development a weak lee low, late in the period, over parts of southern CO. Winds should gradually increase through the afternoon and into the evening, especially over parts of southern NM and west TX. A few hours of low-end fire weather conditions are possible from the Trans-Pecos into the Rio Grande Valley/South Texas, where low humidity and gusty surface winds are possible. However, with area fuel moisture near normal and the relatively limited overlap of dry and breezy conditions, fire-weather concerns should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more