Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, mostly zonal flow aloft will remain in place over much of the southern and central CONUS today ahead of a deepening Pacific trough. The strong flow aloft will support the development a weak lee low, late in the period, over parts of southern CO. Winds should gradually increase through the afternoon and into the evening, especially over parts of southern NM and west TX. A few hours of low-end fire weather conditions are possible from the Trans-Pecos into the Rio Grande Valley/South Texas, where low humidity and gusty surface winds are possible. However, with area fuel moisture near normal and the relatively limited overlap of dry and breezy conditions, fire-weather concerns should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, mostly zonal flow aloft will remain in place over much of the southern and central CONUS today ahead of a deepening Pacific trough. The strong flow aloft will support the development a weak lee low, late in the period, over parts of southern CO. Winds should gradually increase through the afternoon and into the evening, especially over parts of southern NM and west TX. A few hours of low-end fire weather conditions are possible from the Trans-Pecos into the Rio Grande Valley/South Texas, where low humidity and gusty surface winds are possible. However, with area fuel moisture near normal and the relatively limited overlap of dry and breezy conditions, fire-weather concerns should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, mostly zonal flow aloft will remain in place over much of the southern and central CONUS today ahead of a deepening Pacific trough. The strong flow aloft will support the development a weak lee low, late in the period, over parts of southern CO. Winds should gradually increase through the afternoon and into the evening, especially over parts of southern NM and west TX. A few hours of low-end fire weather conditions are possible from the Trans-Pecos into the Rio Grande Valley/South Texas, where low humidity and gusty surface winds are possible. However, with area fuel moisture near normal and the relatively limited overlap of dry and breezy conditions, fire-weather concerns should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, mostly zonal flow aloft will remain in place over much of the southern and central CONUS today ahead of a deepening Pacific trough. The strong flow aloft will support the development a weak lee low, late in the period, over parts of southern CO. Winds should gradually increase through the afternoon and into the evening, especially over parts of southern NM and west TX. A few hours of low-end fire weather conditions are possible from the Trans-Pecos into the Rio Grande Valley/South Texas, where low humidity and gusty surface winds are possible. However, with area fuel moisture near normal and the relatively limited overlap of dry and breezy conditions, fire-weather concerns should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, mostly zonal flow aloft will remain in place over much of the southern and central CONUS today ahead of a deepening Pacific trough. The strong flow aloft will support the development a weak lee low, late in the period, over parts of southern CO. Winds should gradually increase through the afternoon and into the evening, especially over parts of southern NM and west TX. A few hours of low-end fire weather conditions are possible from the Trans-Pecos into the Rio Grande Valley/South Texas, where low humidity and gusty surface winds are possible. However, with area fuel moisture near normal and the relatively limited overlap of dry and breezy conditions, fire-weather concerns should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Relatively cold and stable conditions are in place across the CONUS today, with the risk of thunderstorms rather low in most areas. There will be some continued risk of lightning flashes along the coast and coastal ranges of WA/OR through this evening as a strong upper trough and associated jet max move inland today. Strong onshore flow, orographic lift, and very cold temperatures aloft could also result in hail and gusty winds in the strongest cores, but no severe storms are expected. Other isolated lightning flashes are possible this afternoon and evening from the Sierras of central CA eastward across parts of NV/UT. This activity will mostly be in the form of snow showers as the aforementioned upper system approaches. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Relatively cold and stable conditions are in place across the CONUS today, with the risk of thunderstorms rather low in most areas. There will be some continued risk of lightning flashes along the coast and coastal ranges of WA/OR through this evening as a strong upper trough and associated jet max move inland today. Strong onshore flow, orographic lift, and very cold temperatures aloft could also result in hail and gusty winds in the strongest cores, but no severe storms are expected. Other isolated lightning flashes are possible this afternoon and evening from the Sierras of central CA eastward across parts of NV/UT. This activity will mostly be in the form of snow showers as the aforementioned upper system approaches. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Relatively cold and stable conditions are in place across the CONUS today, with the risk of thunderstorms rather low in most areas. There will be some continued risk of lightning flashes along the coast and coastal ranges of WA/OR through this evening as a strong upper trough and associated jet max move inland today. Strong onshore flow, orographic lift, and very cold temperatures aloft could also result in hail and gusty winds in the strongest cores, but no severe storms are expected. Other isolated lightning flashes are possible this afternoon and evening from the Sierras of central CA eastward across parts of NV/UT. This activity will mostly be in the form of snow showers as the aforementioned upper system approaches. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Relatively cold and stable conditions are in place across the CONUS today, with the risk of thunderstorms rather low in most areas. There will be some continued risk of lightning flashes along the coast and coastal ranges of WA/OR through this evening as a strong upper trough and associated jet max move inland today. Strong onshore flow, orographic lift, and very cold temperatures aloft could also result in hail and gusty winds in the strongest cores, but no severe storms are expected. Other isolated lightning flashes are possible this afternoon and evening from the Sierras of central CA eastward across parts of NV/UT. This activity will mostly be in the form of snow showers as the aforementioned upper system approaches. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Relatively cold and stable conditions are in place across the CONUS today, with the risk of thunderstorms rather low in most areas. There will be some continued risk of lightning flashes along the coast and coastal ranges of WA/OR through this evening as a strong upper trough and associated jet max move inland today. Strong onshore flow, orographic lift, and very cold temperatures aloft could also result in hail and gusty winds in the strongest cores, but no severe storms are expected. Other isolated lightning flashes are possible this afternoon and evening from the Sierras of central CA eastward across parts of NV/UT. This activity will mostly be in the form of snow showers as the aforementioned upper system approaches. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Relatively cold and stable conditions are in place across the CONUS today, with the risk of thunderstorms rather low in most areas. There will be some continued risk of lightning flashes along the coast and coastal ranges of WA/OR through this evening as a strong upper trough and associated jet max move inland today. Strong onshore flow, orographic lift, and very cold temperatures aloft could also result in hail and gusty winds in the strongest cores, but no severe storms are expected. Other isolated lightning flashes are possible this afternoon and evening from the Sierras of central CA eastward across parts of NV/UT. This activity will mostly be in the form of snow showers as the aforementioned upper system approaches. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A progressive mid/upper-level pattern will persist through the period, as a series of shortwave to synoptic-scale troughs maintain net cyclonic flow over most of the CONUS. The lead synoptic trough -- initially including a closed low over southern ON and extending to the Carolinas -- is forecast to eject northeastward to QC and Atlantic Canada through the period, while weakening somewhat. An upstream shortwave trough -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery over portions of WY/UT -- will move eastward across the central Plains to mid Mississippi Valley through the period. This perturbation will have little or no convective consequence due to its passage over unfavorably dry and stable, post-frontal air in low levels. The most important feature, both for convective potential today and the next few -- is a trough initially located over portions of the Pacific Northwest, with a lobe northwestward past Vancouver Island. This feature should move southeastward through the period, crossing OR and ID today, and extending from central WY to southern CA by 12Z tomorrow. Associated cooling aloft -- superimposed with a moist and marginally but sufficiently buoyant marine layer -- will support isolated lightning flashes with the best-organized (and still relatively shallow) convective turrets near the Northwest coast. Steepening lapse rates inland, in the zone of large-scale DCVA/ ascent ahead of the mid/upper trough -- will overlie weak low/ middle-level moisture and frontogenetic forcing to support isolated lightning potential with shallow, mostly snow-producing convection from parts of the Sierra eastward over the Great Basin. ..Edwards/Jewell.. 01/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A progressive mid/upper-level pattern will persist through the period, as a series of shortwave to synoptic-scale troughs maintain net cyclonic flow over most of the CONUS. The lead synoptic trough -- initially including a closed low over southern ON and extending to the Carolinas -- is forecast to eject northeastward to QC and Atlantic Canada through the period, while weakening somewhat. An upstream shortwave trough -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery over portions of WY/UT -- will move eastward across the central Plains to mid Mississippi Valley through the period. This perturbation will have little or no convective consequence due to its passage over unfavorably dry and stable, post-frontal air in low levels. The most important feature, both for convective potential today and the next few -- is a trough initially located over portions of the Pacific Northwest, with a lobe northwestward past Vancouver Island. This feature should move southeastward through the period, crossing OR and ID today, and extending from central WY to southern CA by 12Z tomorrow. Associated cooling aloft -- superimposed with a moist and marginally but sufficiently buoyant marine layer -- will support isolated lightning flashes with the best-organized (and still relatively shallow) convective turrets near the Northwest coast. Steepening lapse rates inland, in the zone of large-scale DCVA/ ascent ahead of the mid/upper trough -- will overlie weak low/ middle-level moisture and frontogenetic forcing to support isolated lightning potential with shallow, mostly snow-producing convection from parts of the Sierra eastward over the Great Basin. ..Edwards/Jewell.. 01/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A progressive mid/upper-level pattern will persist through the period, as a series of shortwave to synoptic-scale troughs maintain net cyclonic flow over most of the CONUS. The lead synoptic trough -- initially including a closed low over southern ON and extending to the Carolinas -- is forecast to eject northeastward to QC and Atlantic Canada through the period, while weakening somewhat. An upstream shortwave trough -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery over portions of WY/UT -- will move eastward across the central Plains to mid Mississippi Valley through the period. This perturbation will have little or no convective consequence due to its passage over unfavorably dry and stable, post-frontal air in low levels. The most important feature, both for convective potential today and the next few -- is a trough initially located over portions of the Pacific Northwest, with a lobe northwestward past Vancouver Island. This feature should move southeastward through the period, crossing OR and ID today, and extending from central WY to southern CA by 12Z tomorrow. Associated cooling aloft -- superimposed with a moist and marginally but sufficiently buoyant marine layer -- will support isolated lightning flashes with the best-organized (and still relatively shallow) convective turrets near the Northwest coast. Steepening lapse rates inland, in the zone of large-scale DCVA/ ascent ahead of the mid/upper trough -- will overlie weak low/ middle-level moisture and frontogenetic forcing to support isolated lightning potential with shallow, mostly snow-producing convection from parts of the Sierra eastward over the Great Basin. ..Edwards/Jewell.. 01/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A progressive mid/upper-level pattern will persist through the period, as a series of shortwave to synoptic-scale troughs maintain net cyclonic flow over most of the CONUS. The lead synoptic trough -- initially including a closed low over southern ON and extending to the Carolinas -- is forecast to eject northeastward to QC and Atlantic Canada through the period, while weakening somewhat. An upstream shortwave trough -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery over portions of WY/UT -- will move eastward across the central Plains to mid Mississippi Valley through the period. This perturbation will have little or no convective consequence due to its passage over unfavorably dry and stable, post-frontal air in low levels. The most important feature, both for convective potential today and the next few -- is a trough initially located over portions of the Pacific Northwest, with a lobe northwestward past Vancouver Island. This feature should move southeastward through the period, crossing OR and ID today, and extending from central WY to southern CA by 12Z tomorrow. Associated cooling aloft -- superimposed with a moist and marginally but sufficiently buoyant marine layer -- will support isolated lightning flashes with the best-organized (and still relatively shallow) convective turrets near the Northwest coast. Steepening lapse rates inland, in the zone of large-scale DCVA/ ascent ahead of the mid/upper trough -- will overlie weak low/ middle-level moisture and frontogenetic forcing to support isolated lightning potential with shallow, mostly snow-producing convection from parts of the Sierra eastward over the Great Basin. ..Edwards/Jewell.. 01/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A progressive mid/upper-level pattern will persist through the period, as a series of shortwave to synoptic-scale troughs maintain net cyclonic flow over most of the CONUS. The lead synoptic trough -- initially including a closed low over southern ON and extending to the Carolinas -- is forecast to eject northeastward to QC and Atlantic Canada through the period, while weakening somewhat. An upstream shortwave trough -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery over portions of WY/UT -- will move eastward across the central Plains to mid Mississippi Valley through the period. This perturbation will have little or no convective consequence due to its passage over unfavorably dry and stable, post-frontal air in low levels. The most important feature, both for convective potential today and the next few -- is a trough initially located over portions of the Pacific Northwest, with a lobe northwestward past Vancouver Island. This feature should move southeastward through the period, crossing OR and ID today, and extending from central WY to southern CA by 12Z tomorrow. Associated cooling aloft -- superimposed with a moist and marginally but sufficiently buoyant marine layer -- will support isolated lightning flashes with the best-organized (and still relatively shallow) convective turrets near the Northwest coast. Steepening lapse rates inland, in the zone of large-scale DCVA/ ascent ahead of the mid/upper trough -- will overlie weak low/ middle-level moisture and frontogenetic forcing to support isolated lightning potential with shallow, mostly snow-producing convection from parts of the Sierra eastward over the Great Basin. ..Edwards/Jewell.. 01/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A progressive mid/upper-level pattern will persist through the period, as a series of shortwave to synoptic-scale troughs maintain net cyclonic flow over most of the CONUS. The lead synoptic trough -- initially including a closed low over southern ON and extending to the Carolinas -- is forecast to eject northeastward to QC and Atlantic Canada through the period, while weakening somewhat. An upstream shortwave trough -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery over portions of WY/UT -- will move eastward across the central Plains to mid Mississippi Valley through the period. This perturbation will have little or no convective consequence due to its passage over unfavorably dry and stable, post-frontal air in low levels. The most important feature, both for convective potential today and the next few -- is a trough initially located over portions of the Pacific Northwest, with a lobe northwestward past Vancouver Island. This feature should move southeastward through the period, crossing OR and ID today, and extending from central WY to southern CA by 12Z tomorrow. Associated cooling aloft -- superimposed with a moist and marginally but sufficiently buoyant marine layer -- will support isolated lightning flashes with the best-organized (and still relatively shallow) convective turrets near the Northwest coast. Steepening lapse rates inland, in the zone of large-scale DCVA/ ascent ahead of the mid/upper trough -- will overlie weak low/ middle-level moisture and frontogenetic forcing to support isolated lightning potential with shallow, mostly snow-producing convection from parts of the Sierra eastward over the Great Basin. ..Edwards/Jewell.. 01/10/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output suggests that an initially intense surface cyclone may weaken some while migrating northeast of the lower Great Lakes early this coming weekend. However, there may be some further intensification of the remnant mid-level low, which is forecast to turn northward/northwestward into the James/southern Hudson Bay vicinity and become part of a deep elongated area of low heights across much of eastern Canada, the Great Lakes and Northeast through the middle to latter portion of next week. At the same time, it appears that mid-level ridging, within the split mid-latitude westerlies over the eastern Pacific, will attempt to build eastward toward the Pacific coast. Between these features, it appears that a short wave perturbation emerging from the Arctic latitudes will dig through the residual cyclonic flow over the interior and eastern U.S., with at least some amplification possible. This probably will be preceded by an intrusion of Arctic air to the lee of the Rockies and northern Mexican Plateau, though it might contribute to surface wave development along the remnant preceding frontal zone across the central/northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The 10/00Z ECMWF appears much more amplified with subsequent surface cyclogenesis near/offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard than, perhaps, the ECENS (in addition to the GEFS and GFS) suggests is probable. However, its depiction suggests that this could be accompanied by some severe thunderstorm risk across the Florida Peninsula on Monday. For at least now, though, this potential appears too low/uncertain to introduce 15 percent probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output suggests that an initially intense surface cyclone may weaken some while migrating northeast of the lower Great Lakes early this coming weekend. However, there may be some further intensification of the remnant mid-level low, which is forecast to turn northward/northwestward into the James/southern Hudson Bay vicinity and become part of a deep elongated area of low heights across much of eastern Canada, the Great Lakes and Northeast through the middle to latter portion of next week. At the same time, it appears that mid-level ridging, within the split mid-latitude westerlies over the eastern Pacific, will attempt to build eastward toward the Pacific coast. Between these features, it appears that a short wave perturbation emerging from the Arctic latitudes will dig through the residual cyclonic flow over the interior and eastern U.S., with at least some amplification possible. This probably will be preceded by an intrusion of Arctic air to the lee of the Rockies and northern Mexican Plateau, though it might contribute to surface wave development along the remnant preceding frontal zone across the central/northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The 10/00Z ECMWF appears much more amplified with subsequent surface cyclogenesis near/offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard than, perhaps, the ECENS (in addition to the GEFS and GFS) suggests is probable. However, its depiction suggests that this could be accompanied by some severe thunderstorm risk across the Florida Peninsula on Monday. For at least now, though, this potential appears too low/uncertain to introduce 15 percent probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output suggests that an initially intense surface cyclone may weaken some while migrating northeast of the lower Great Lakes early this coming weekend. However, there may be some further intensification of the remnant mid-level low, which is forecast to turn northward/northwestward into the James/southern Hudson Bay vicinity and become part of a deep elongated area of low heights across much of eastern Canada, the Great Lakes and Northeast through the middle to latter portion of next week. At the same time, it appears that mid-level ridging, within the split mid-latitude westerlies over the eastern Pacific, will attempt to build eastward toward the Pacific coast. Between these features, it appears that a short wave perturbation emerging from the Arctic latitudes will dig through the residual cyclonic flow over the interior and eastern U.S., with at least some amplification possible. This probably will be preceded by an intrusion of Arctic air to the lee of the Rockies and northern Mexican Plateau, though it might contribute to surface wave development along the remnant preceding frontal zone across the central/northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The 10/00Z ECMWF appears much more amplified with subsequent surface cyclogenesis near/offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard than, perhaps, the ECENS (in addition to the GEFS and GFS) suggests is probable. However, its depiction suggests that this could be accompanied by some severe thunderstorm risk across the Florida Peninsula on Monday. For at least now, though, this potential appears too low/uncertain to introduce 15 percent probabilities. Read more