Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential will remain low over much of the CONUS on Monday. A prior cold front passage and surface high pressure over the Mid-South and Southeast will result in a dearth of boundary-layer moisture east of the Rockies. A series of shortwave upper trough will move across the Pacific Northwest. A few thunderstorms will be possible as west/southwesterly deep-layer flow maintains a stream of moisture across the WA/OR coastal vicinity. Isolated lightning activity may be more likely overnight as steeper midlevel lapse rates/cooling aloft impinges on the region. ..Leitman.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential will remain low over much of the CONUS on Monday. A prior cold front passage and surface high pressure over the Mid-South and Southeast will result in a dearth of boundary-layer moisture east of the Rockies. A series of shortwave upper trough will move across the Pacific Northwest. A few thunderstorms will be possible as west/southwesterly deep-layer flow maintains a stream of moisture across the WA/OR coastal vicinity. Isolated lightning activity may be more likely overnight as steeper midlevel lapse rates/cooling aloft impinges on the region. ..Leitman.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential will remain low over much of the CONUS on Monday. A prior cold front passage and surface high pressure over the Mid-South and Southeast will result in a dearth of boundary-layer moisture east of the Rockies. A series of shortwave upper trough will move across the Pacific Northwest. A few thunderstorms will be possible as west/southwesterly deep-layer flow maintains a stream of moisture across the WA/OR coastal vicinity. Isolated lightning activity may be more likely overnight as steeper midlevel lapse rates/cooling aloft impinges on the region. ..Leitman.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential will remain low over much of the CONUS on Monday. A prior cold front passage and surface high pressure over the Mid-South and Southeast will result in a dearth of boundary-layer moisture east of the Rockies. A series of shortwave upper trough will move across the Pacific Northwest. A few thunderstorms will be possible as west/southwesterly deep-layer flow maintains a stream of moisture across the WA/OR coastal vicinity. Isolated lightning activity may be more likely overnight as steeper midlevel lapse rates/cooling aloft impinges on the region. ..Leitman.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential will remain low over much of the CONUS on Monday. A prior cold front passage and surface high pressure over the Mid-South and Southeast will result in a dearth of boundary-layer moisture east of the Rockies. A series of shortwave upper trough will move across the Pacific Northwest. A few thunderstorms will be possible as west/southwesterly deep-layer flow maintains a stream of moisture across the WA/OR coastal vicinity. Isolated lightning activity may be more likely overnight as steeper midlevel lapse rates/cooling aloft impinges on the region. ..Leitman.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... The surface high across the central US will shift eastward today as ridging aloft is undercut by a shortwave disturbance moving eastward across the central Plains. Pockets of breezy southwesterly surface winds will be possible across northeastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Relative humidity in this region may drop as low as 15-20 percent for locally elevated fire weather concerns. Overall, short duration and spotty coverage of overlap of breezes and low relative humidity preclude the need to include any areas with this outlook. Locally elevated meteorological conditions will be possible across the plains of eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Recent snowfall across this region will leave availability of receptive fuels low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... The surface high across the central US will shift eastward today as ridging aloft is undercut by a shortwave disturbance moving eastward across the central Plains. Pockets of breezy southwesterly surface winds will be possible across northeastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Relative humidity in this region may drop as low as 15-20 percent for locally elevated fire weather concerns. Overall, short duration and spotty coverage of overlap of breezes and low relative humidity preclude the need to include any areas with this outlook. Locally elevated meteorological conditions will be possible across the plains of eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Recent snowfall across this region will leave availability of receptive fuels low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... The surface high across the central US will shift eastward today as ridging aloft is undercut by a shortwave disturbance moving eastward across the central Plains. Pockets of breezy southwesterly surface winds will be possible across northeastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Relative humidity in this region may drop as low as 15-20 percent for locally elevated fire weather concerns. Overall, short duration and spotty coverage of overlap of breezes and low relative humidity preclude the need to include any areas with this outlook. Locally elevated meteorological conditions will be possible across the plains of eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Recent snowfall across this region will leave availability of receptive fuels low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... The surface high across the central US will shift eastward today as ridging aloft is undercut by a shortwave disturbance moving eastward across the central Plains. Pockets of breezy southwesterly surface winds will be possible across northeastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Relative humidity in this region may drop as low as 15-20 percent for locally elevated fire weather concerns. Overall, short duration and spotty coverage of overlap of breezes and low relative humidity preclude the need to include any areas with this outlook. Locally elevated meteorological conditions will be possible across the plains of eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Recent snowfall across this region will leave availability of receptive fuels low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... The surface high across the central US will shift eastward today as ridging aloft is undercut by a shortwave disturbance moving eastward across the central Plains. Pockets of breezy southwesterly surface winds will be possible across northeastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Relative humidity in this region may drop as low as 15-20 percent for locally elevated fire weather concerns. Overall, short duration and spotty coverage of overlap of breezes and low relative humidity preclude the need to include any areas with this outlook. Locally elevated meteorological conditions will be possible across the plains of eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Recent snowfall across this region will leave availability of receptive fuels low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... The surface high across the central US will shift eastward today as ridging aloft is undercut by a shortwave disturbance moving eastward across the central Plains. Pockets of breezy southwesterly surface winds will be possible across northeastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Relative humidity in this region may drop as low as 15-20 percent for locally elevated fire weather concerns. Overall, short duration and spotty coverage of overlap of breezes and low relative humidity preclude the need to include any areas with this outlook. Locally elevated meteorological conditions will be possible across the plains of eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Recent snowfall across this region will leave availability of receptive fuels low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... The surface high across the central US will shift eastward today as ridging aloft is undercut by a shortwave disturbance moving eastward across the central Plains. Pockets of breezy southwesterly surface winds will be possible across northeastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Relative humidity in this region may drop as low as 15-20 percent for locally elevated fire weather concerns. Overall, short duration and spotty coverage of overlap of breezes and low relative humidity preclude the need to include any areas with this outlook. Locally elevated meteorological conditions will be possible across the plains of eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Recent snowfall across this region will leave availability of receptive fuels low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected today. ...Synopsis... A broad upper low over the eastern US is forecast to move slowly eastward today as an associated cold front moves offshore across New England and South FL. To the west, a weak Pacific upper trough will move inland with ascent overspreading the Cascades and northern Rockies. Transient ridging over the central US will keep much of the country cool and stable with dry offshore flow. Weak thunderstorms ongoing across southern New England should gradually diminish through the day as the increasingly narrow warm sector moves toward the coast. Across South FL, weak convergence along the cold front and limited large-scale ascent should keep thunderstorm coverage low. Thunderstorm chances should lessen this afternoon as weak buoyancy is removed with the frontal passage. Across the Northwest, mid-level cooling and steepening lapse rates aloft may support isolated lightning flashes over portions of the Pacific Coast, Cascades and northern Rockies. However, with low storm coverage and marginal thermodynamics expected, severe weather is not expected. ..Smith/Lyons.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected today. ...Synopsis... A broad upper low over the eastern US is forecast to move slowly eastward today as an associated cold front moves offshore across New England and South FL. To the west, a weak Pacific upper trough will move inland with ascent overspreading the Cascades and northern Rockies. Transient ridging over the central US will keep much of the country cool and stable with dry offshore flow. Weak thunderstorms ongoing across southern New England should gradually diminish through the day as the increasingly narrow warm sector moves toward the coast. Across South FL, weak convergence along the cold front and limited large-scale ascent should keep thunderstorm coverage low. Thunderstorm chances should lessen this afternoon as weak buoyancy is removed with the frontal passage. Across the Northwest, mid-level cooling and steepening lapse rates aloft may support isolated lightning flashes over portions of the Pacific Coast, Cascades and northern Rockies. However, with low storm coverage and marginal thermodynamics expected, severe weather is not expected. ..Smith/Lyons.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected today. ...Synopsis... A broad upper low over the eastern US is forecast to move slowly eastward today as an associated cold front moves offshore across New England and South FL. To the west, a weak Pacific upper trough will move inland with ascent overspreading the Cascades and northern Rockies. Transient ridging over the central US will keep much of the country cool and stable with dry offshore flow. Weak thunderstorms ongoing across southern New England should gradually diminish through the day as the increasingly narrow warm sector moves toward the coast. Across South FL, weak convergence along the cold front and limited large-scale ascent should keep thunderstorm coverage low. Thunderstorm chances should lessen this afternoon as weak buoyancy is removed with the frontal passage. Across the Northwest, mid-level cooling and steepening lapse rates aloft may support isolated lightning flashes over portions of the Pacific Coast, Cascades and northern Rockies. However, with low storm coverage and marginal thermodynamics expected, severe weather is not expected. ..Smith/Lyons.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected today. ...Synopsis... A broad upper low over the eastern US is forecast to move slowly eastward today as an associated cold front moves offshore across New England and South FL. To the west, a weak Pacific upper trough will move inland with ascent overspreading the Cascades and northern Rockies. Transient ridging over the central US will keep much of the country cool and stable with dry offshore flow. Weak thunderstorms ongoing across southern New England should gradually diminish through the day as the increasingly narrow warm sector moves toward the coast. Across South FL, weak convergence along the cold front and limited large-scale ascent should keep thunderstorm coverage low. Thunderstorm chances should lessen this afternoon as weak buoyancy is removed with the frontal passage. Across the Northwest, mid-level cooling and steepening lapse rates aloft may support isolated lightning flashes over portions of the Pacific Coast, Cascades and northern Rockies. However, with low storm coverage and marginal thermodynamics expected, severe weather is not expected. ..Smith/Lyons.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected today. ...Synopsis... A broad upper low over the eastern US is forecast to move slowly eastward today as an associated cold front moves offshore across New England and South FL. To the west, a weak Pacific upper trough will move inland with ascent overspreading the Cascades and northern Rockies. Transient ridging over the central US will keep much of the country cool and stable with dry offshore flow. Weak thunderstorms ongoing across southern New England should gradually diminish through the day as the increasingly narrow warm sector moves toward the coast. Across South FL, weak convergence along the cold front and limited large-scale ascent should keep thunderstorm coverage low. Thunderstorm chances should lessen this afternoon as weak buoyancy is removed with the frontal passage. Across the Northwest, mid-level cooling and steepening lapse rates aloft may support isolated lightning flashes over portions of the Pacific Coast, Cascades and northern Rockies. However, with low storm coverage and marginal thermodynamics expected, severe weather is not expected. ..Smith/Lyons.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected today. ...Synopsis... A broad upper low over the eastern US is forecast to move slowly eastward today as an associated cold front moves offshore across New England and South FL. To the west, a weak Pacific upper trough will move inland with ascent overspreading the Cascades and northern Rockies. Transient ridging over the central US will keep much of the country cool and stable with dry offshore flow. Weak thunderstorms ongoing across southern New England should gradually diminish through the day as the increasingly narrow warm sector moves toward the coast. Across South FL, weak convergence along the cold front and limited large-scale ascent should keep thunderstorm coverage low. Thunderstorm chances should lessen this afternoon as weak buoyancy is removed with the frontal passage. Across the Northwest, mid-level cooling and steepening lapse rates aloft may support isolated lightning flashes over portions of the Pacific Coast, Cascades and northern Rockies. However, with low storm coverage and marginal thermodynamics expected, severe weather is not expected. ..Smith/Lyons.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected today. ...Synopsis... A broad upper low over the eastern US is forecast to move slowly eastward today as an associated cold front moves offshore across New England and South FL. To the west, a weak Pacific upper trough will move inland with ascent overspreading the Cascades and northern Rockies. Transient ridging over the central US will keep much of the country cool and stable with dry offshore flow. Weak thunderstorms ongoing across southern New England should gradually diminish through the day as the increasingly narrow warm sector moves toward the coast. Across South FL, weak convergence along the cold front and limited large-scale ascent should keep thunderstorm coverage low. Thunderstorm chances should lessen this afternoon as weak buoyancy is removed with the frontal passage. Across the Northwest, mid-level cooling and steepening lapse rates aloft may support isolated lightning flashes over portions of the Pacific Coast, Cascades and northern Rockies. However, with low storm coverage and marginal thermodynamics expected, severe weather is not expected. ..Smith/Lyons.. 03/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0719 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a progressive pattern will continue over the CONUS, led by a substantial, synoptic-scale cyclone now centered over the eastern Lower MI/Lake Huron region. A strong, preceding shortwave perturbation -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery over parts of NY and western New England -- will eject out of the Northeast today as the mid/upper low approaches. In the meantime, a few elevated, non-severe thunderstorms may occur over portions of coastal eastern New England, atop the related conveyor of low-level warm advection and frontal forcing. By 00Z, the 500-mb low should be in the NYC area, moving well offshore of Cape Cod by 12Z. The trailing cold front -- analyzed at 11Z across parts of central FL, is preceded by a thin band of convection on a low-level prefrontal trough. While weak MLCINH and rich surface moisture will persist along/ahead of these boundaries, with some diurnal heating prior to frontal passage, warm-sector southwesterlies will contribute to limited thunderstorm coverage due to lack of stronger lift. Elsewhere, a series of shortwave troughs will continue to traverse high-latitude westerlies over the North Pacific, south of mean troughing over AK and the Gulf of Alaska. One already is well inland over the Canadian Great Plains. The next -- initially extending from a low offshore of Vancouver Island, southward near 130W -- will move ashore today and deamplify to an open-wave trough. Associated midlevel cooling and steepening lapse rates -- atop weak but locally sufficient low-level moisture -- may support isolated lightning over portions of the Northwest today, shutting down this evening and from west-east with trough passage. ..Edwards/Jewell.. 03/10/2024 Read more