Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 03/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A cold front will move through portions of the Plains today. In the wake of the front breezy northwesterly winds will occur across much of the northern/central Plains. RH could become marginally reduced by the afternoon from western South Dakota into western/central Nebraska. With some cloud cover lingering into the late morning and early afternoon, it is not certain how low RH will fall. Values near 20% are possible at least locally. Winds of 15-20 mph are also possible, though the strongest pressure gradient will be offset from the diurnal RH minimum. Overall, locally elevated fire weather is expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 03/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A cold front will move through portions of the Plains today. In the wake of the front breezy northwesterly winds will occur across much of the northern/central Plains. RH could become marginally reduced by the afternoon from western South Dakota into western/central Nebraska. With some cloud cover lingering into the late morning and early afternoon, it is not certain how low RH will fall. Values near 20% are possible at least locally. Winds of 15-20 mph are also possible, though the strongest pressure gradient will be offset from the diurnal RH minimum. Overall, locally elevated fire weather is expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of south central/southeast Texas late today into tonight. ...TX... Morning radar and satellite imagery show widespread cloud cover and scattered convection across much of central TX, in a broad/weak low and mid level warm advection regime. This trend will continue through much of the day, limiting heating and overall destabilization. While most of the daytime activity will be non-severe, an occasional strong storm may develop in the MRGL risk area capable of hail. By late afternoon, a shortwave trough now over Baja CA will approach the mountains of northern Mexico, aiding in the development of strong to severe storms. This activity will spread across the Rio Grande and into TX during the evening, while increasing low-level warm advection help to initiate storms ahead of the main activity. All of these storms will move across the SLGT risk area during the night. While low-level destabilization will be limited, steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable shear profiles will promote supercell and bowing structures capable of very large hail and damaging wind gusts. Storms may persist through the pre-dawn hours into southwest LA with a continued MRGL risk of hail or gusty winds. ..Hart/Weinman.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of south central/southeast Texas late today into tonight. ...TX... Morning radar and satellite imagery show widespread cloud cover and scattered convection across much of central TX, in a broad/weak low and mid level warm advection regime. This trend will continue through much of the day, limiting heating and overall destabilization. While most of the daytime activity will be non-severe, an occasional strong storm may develop in the MRGL risk area capable of hail. By late afternoon, a shortwave trough now over Baja CA will approach the mountains of northern Mexico, aiding in the development of strong to severe storms. This activity will spread across the Rio Grande and into TX during the evening, while increasing low-level warm advection help to initiate storms ahead of the main activity. All of these storms will move across the SLGT risk area during the night. While low-level destabilization will be limited, steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable shear profiles will promote supercell and bowing structures capable of very large hail and damaging wind gusts. Storms may persist through the pre-dawn hours into southwest LA with a continued MRGL risk of hail or gusty winds. ..Hart/Weinman.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of south central/southeast Texas late today into tonight. ...TX... Morning radar and satellite imagery show widespread cloud cover and scattered convection across much of central TX, in a broad/weak low and mid level warm advection regime. This trend will continue through much of the day, limiting heating and overall destabilization. While most of the daytime activity will be non-severe, an occasional strong storm may develop in the MRGL risk area capable of hail. By late afternoon, a shortwave trough now over Baja CA will approach the mountains of northern Mexico, aiding in the development of strong to severe storms. This activity will spread across the Rio Grande and into TX during the evening, while increasing low-level warm advection help to initiate storms ahead of the main activity. All of these storms will move across the SLGT risk area during the night. While low-level destabilization will be limited, steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable shear profiles will promote supercell and bowing structures capable of very large hail and damaging wind gusts. Storms may persist through the pre-dawn hours into southwest LA with a continued MRGL risk of hail or gusty winds. ..Hart/Weinman.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of south central/southeast Texas late today into tonight. ...TX... Morning radar and satellite imagery show widespread cloud cover and scattered convection across much of central TX, in a broad/weak low and mid level warm advection regime. This trend will continue through much of the day, limiting heating and overall destabilization. While most of the daytime activity will be non-severe, an occasional strong storm may develop in the MRGL risk area capable of hail. By late afternoon, a shortwave trough now over Baja CA will approach the mountains of northern Mexico, aiding in the development of strong to severe storms. This activity will spread across the Rio Grande and into TX during the evening, while increasing low-level warm advection help to initiate storms ahead of the main activity. All of these storms will move across the SLGT risk area during the night. While low-level destabilization will be limited, steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable shear profiles will promote supercell and bowing structures capable of very large hail and damaging wind gusts. Storms may persist through the pre-dawn hours into southwest LA with a continued MRGL risk of hail or gusty winds. ..Hart/Weinman.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of south central/southeast Texas late today into tonight. ...TX... Morning radar and satellite imagery show widespread cloud cover and scattered convection across much of central TX, in a broad/weak low and mid level warm advection regime. This trend will continue through much of the day, limiting heating and overall destabilization. While most of the daytime activity will be non-severe, an occasional strong storm may develop in the MRGL risk area capable of hail. By late afternoon, a shortwave trough now over Baja CA will approach the mountains of northern Mexico, aiding in the development of strong to severe storms. This activity will spread across the Rio Grande and into TX during the evening, while increasing low-level warm advection help to initiate storms ahead of the main activity. All of these storms will move across the SLGT risk area during the night. While low-level destabilization will be limited, steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable shear profiles will promote supercell and bowing structures capable of very large hail and damaging wind gusts. Storms may persist through the pre-dawn hours into southwest LA with a continued MRGL risk of hail or gusty winds. ..Hart/Weinman.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of south central/southeast Texas late today into tonight. ...TX... Morning radar and satellite imagery show widespread cloud cover and scattered convection across much of central TX, in a broad/weak low and mid level warm advection regime. This trend will continue through much of the day, limiting heating and overall destabilization. While most of the daytime activity will be non-severe, an occasional strong storm may develop in the MRGL risk area capable of hail. By late afternoon, a shortwave trough now over Baja CA will approach the mountains of northern Mexico, aiding in the development of strong to severe storms. This activity will spread across the Rio Grande and into TX during the evening, while increasing low-level warm advection help to initiate storms ahead of the main activity. All of these storms will move across the SLGT risk area during the night. While low-level destabilization will be limited, steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable shear profiles will promote supercell and bowing structures capable of very large hail and damaging wind gusts. Storms may persist through the pre-dawn hours into southwest LA with a continued MRGL risk of hail or gusty winds. ..Hart/Weinman.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of south central/southeast Texas late today into tonight. ...TX... Morning radar and satellite imagery show widespread cloud cover and scattered convection across much of central TX, in a broad/weak low and mid level warm advection regime. This trend will continue through much of the day, limiting heating and overall destabilization. While most of the daytime activity will be non-severe, an occasional strong storm may develop in the MRGL risk area capable of hail. By late afternoon, a shortwave trough now over Baja CA will approach the mountains of northern Mexico, aiding in the development of strong to severe storms. This activity will spread across the Rio Grande and into TX during the evening, while increasing low-level warm advection help to initiate storms ahead of the main activity. All of these storms will move across the SLGT risk area during the night. While low-level destabilization will be limited, steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable shear profiles will promote supercell and bowing structures capable of very large hail and damaging wind gusts. Storms may persist through the pre-dawn hours into southwest LA with a continued MRGL risk of hail or gusty winds. ..Hart/Weinman.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of south central/southeast Texas late today into tonight. ...South TX through tonight... A closed midlevel low will meander over AZ through tonight, while a surface front remains quasi-stationary near the Gulf coast and beneath the southern stream/subtropical jet. Outflow with convection yesterday and early this morning has complicated the surface pattern, with the effective front extending from just off the LA coast to near the TX coast. The deeper baroclinic zone appears to be a bit farther inland over south TX, and there will be some potential for sharpening of the front later this afternoon with surface heating in the wake of a morning MCS/wake low now moving off the lower TX coast. The details of convective initiation/evolution are unclear this morning given the influence of the ongoing convection near the coast and uncertainty regarding boundary locations. Assuming sufficient recovery inland over south TX, the approach of subtle speed maxima within the subtropical jet atop weak frontal convergence could support additional thunderstorm development late this afternoon into tonight. Other storms could also form in the weak upslope flow on the east slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental and move into south TX tonight. The northeast edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-70 will contribute to MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg in an environment with sufficient deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length for supercells. Large hail (1-2" diameter) will be the main threat, though a cluster or two could persist overnight with the potential to produce isolated wind damage. ..Thompson/Dean.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of south central/southeast Texas late today into tonight. ...South TX through tonight... A closed midlevel low will meander over AZ through tonight, while a surface front remains quasi-stationary near the Gulf coast and beneath the southern stream/subtropical jet. Outflow with convection yesterday and early this morning has complicated the surface pattern, with the effective front extending from just off the LA coast to near the TX coast. The deeper baroclinic zone appears to be a bit farther inland over south TX, and there will be some potential for sharpening of the front later this afternoon with surface heating in the wake of a morning MCS/wake low now moving off the lower TX coast. The details of convective initiation/evolution are unclear this morning given the influence of the ongoing convection near the coast and uncertainty regarding boundary locations. Assuming sufficient recovery inland over south TX, the approach of subtle speed maxima within the subtropical jet atop weak frontal convergence could support additional thunderstorm development late this afternoon into tonight. Other storms could also form in the weak upslope flow on the east slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental and move into south TX tonight. The northeast edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-70 will contribute to MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg in an environment with sufficient deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length for supercells. Large hail (1-2" diameter) will be the main threat, though a cluster or two could persist overnight with the potential to produce isolated wind damage. ..Thompson/Dean.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of south central/southeast Texas late today into tonight. ...South TX through tonight... A closed midlevel low will meander over AZ through tonight, while a surface front remains quasi-stationary near the Gulf coast and beneath the southern stream/subtropical jet. Outflow with convection yesterday and early this morning has complicated the surface pattern, with the effective front extending from just off the LA coast to near the TX coast. The deeper baroclinic zone appears to be a bit farther inland over south TX, and there will be some potential for sharpening of the front later this afternoon with surface heating in the wake of a morning MCS/wake low now moving off the lower TX coast. The details of convective initiation/evolution are unclear this morning given the influence of the ongoing convection near the coast and uncertainty regarding boundary locations. Assuming sufficient recovery inland over south TX, the approach of subtle speed maxima within the subtropical jet atop weak frontal convergence could support additional thunderstorm development late this afternoon into tonight. Other storms could also form in the weak upslope flow on the east slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental and move into south TX tonight. The northeast edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-70 will contribute to MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg in an environment with sufficient deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length for supercells. Large hail (1-2" diameter) will be the main threat, though a cluster or two could persist overnight with the potential to produce isolated wind damage. ..Thompson/Dean.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of south central/southeast Texas late today into tonight. ...South TX through tonight... A closed midlevel low will meander over AZ through tonight, while a surface front remains quasi-stationary near the Gulf coast and beneath the southern stream/subtropical jet. Outflow with convection yesterday and early this morning has complicated the surface pattern, with the effective front extending from just off the LA coast to near the TX coast. The deeper baroclinic zone appears to be a bit farther inland over south TX, and there will be some potential for sharpening of the front later this afternoon with surface heating in the wake of a morning MCS/wake low now moving off the lower TX coast. The details of convective initiation/evolution are unclear this morning given the influence of the ongoing convection near the coast and uncertainty regarding boundary locations. Assuming sufficient recovery inland over south TX, the approach of subtle speed maxima within the subtropical jet atop weak frontal convergence could support additional thunderstorm development late this afternoon into tonight. Other storms could also form in the weak upslope flow on the east slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental and move into south TX tonight. The northeast edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-70 will contribute to MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg in an environment with sufficient deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length for supercells. Large hail (1-2" diameter) will be the main threat, though a cluster or two could persist overnight with the potential to produce isolated wind damage. ..Thompson/Dean.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of south central/southeast Texas late today into tonight. ...South TX through tonight... A closed midlevel low will meander over AZ through tonight, while a surface front remains quasi-stationary near the Gulf coast and beneath the southern stream/subtropical jet. Outflow with convection yesterday and early this morning has complicated the surface pattern, with the effective front extending from just off the LA coast to near the TX coast. The deeper baroclinic zone appears to be a bit farther inland over south TX, and there will be some potential for sharpening of the front later this afternoon with surface heating in the wake of a morning MCS/wake low now moving off the lower TX coast. The details of convective initiation/evolution are unclear this morning given the influence of the ongoing convection near the coast and uncertainty regarding boundary locations. Assuming sufficient recovery inland over south TX, the approach of subtle speed maxima within the subtropical jet atop weak frontal convergence could support additional thunderstorm development late this afternoon into tonight. Other storms could also form in the weak upslope flow on the east slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental and move into south TX tonight. The northeast edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-70 will contribute to MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg in an environment with sufficient deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length for supercells. Large hail (1-2" diameter) will be the main threat, though a cluster or two could persist overnight with the potential to produce isolated wind damage. ..Thompson/Dean.. 03/16/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models suggest that the remnant blocking regime, inland of the U.S. Pacific coast at the outset of the period, will break down by mid-week, as a new high becomes established near the Gulf of Alaska vicinity. As this occurs, large-scale downstream troughing, initially centered near the Atlantic Seaboard, is forecast to de-amplify and shift into the northwest Atlantic, and the remnants of a persistent closed low may accelerate eastward out of the Southwest. Flow across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific into western Atlantic appears likely to remain largely zonal, until undergoing considerable amplification late next week into next weekend. As this occurs, the lead perturbation may eventually contribute to significant surface cyclogenesis, but this currently seems most probable offshore of the south Atlantic Seaboard early next weekend. While modest wave development is possible along a developing frontal zone across parts of the southern Great Plains through the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico next Thursday and Friday, moisture return, in the wake of the early week cold intrusion across the northern Gulf Basin, will be limited. This seems likely to preclude appreciable destabilization, while shear profiles remain marginal for organized severe convection. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models suggest that the remnant blocking regime, inland of the U.S. Pacific coast at the outset of the period, will break down by mid-week, as a new high becomes established near the Gulf of Alaska vicinity. As this occurs, large-scale downstream troughing, initially centered near the Atlantic Seaboard, is forecast to de-amplify and shift into the northwest Atlantic, and the remnants of a persistent closed low may accelerate eastward out of the Southwest. Flow across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific into western Atlantic appears likely to remain largely zonal, until undergoing considerable amplification late next week into next weekend. As this occurs, the lead perturbation may eventually contribute to significant surface cyclogenesis, but this currently seems most probable offshore of the south Atlantic Seaboard early next weekend. While modest wave development is possible along a developing frontal zone across parts of the southern Great Plains through the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico next Thursday and Friday, moisture return, in the wake of the early week cold intrusion across the northern Gulf Basin, will be limited. This seems likely to preclude appreciable destabilization, while shear profiles remain marginal for organized severe convection. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models suggest that the remnant blocking regime, inland of the U.S. Pacific coast at the outset of the period, will break down by mid-week, as a new high becomes established near the Gulf of Alaska vicinity. As this occurs, large-scale downstream troughing, initially centered near the Atlantic Seaboard, is forecast to de-amplify and shift into the northwest Atlantic, and the remnants of a persistent closed low may accelerate eastward out of the Southwest. Flow across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific into western Atlantic appears likely to remain largely zonal, until undergoing considerable amplification late next week into next weekend. As this occurs, the lead perturbation may eventually contribute to significant surface cyclogenesis, but this currently seems most probable offshore of the south Atlantic Seaboard early next weekend. While modest wave development is possible along a developing frontal zone across parts of the southern Great Plains through the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico next Thursday and Friday, moisture return, in the wake of the early week cold intrusion across the northern Gulf Basin, will be limited. This seems likely to preclude appreciable destabilization, while shear profiles remain marginal for organized severe convection. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models suggest that the remnant blocking regime, inland of the U.S. Pacific coast at the outset of the period, will break down by mid-week, as a new high becomes established near the Gulf of Alaska vicinity. As this occurs, large-scale downstream troughing, initially centered near the Atlantic Seaboard, is forecast to de-amplify and shift into the northwest Atlantic, and the remnants of a persistent closed low may accelerate eastward out of the Southwest. Flow across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific into western Atlantic appears likely to remain largely zonal, until undergoing considerable amplification late next week into next weekend. As this occurs, the lead perturbation may eventually contribute to significant surface cyclogenesis, but this currently seems most probable offshore of the south Atlantic Seaboard early next weekend. While modest wave development is possible along a developing frontal zone across parts of the southern Great Plains through the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico next Thursday and Friday, moisture return, in the wake of the early week cold intrusion across the northern Gulf Basin, will be limited. This seems likely to preclude appreciable destabilization, while shear profiles remain marginal for organized severe convection. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models suggest that the remnant blocking regime, inland of the U.S. Pacific coast at the outset of the period, will break down by mid-week, as a new high becomes established near the Gulf of Alaska vicinity. As this occurs, large-scale downstream troughing, initially centered near the Atlantic Seaboard, is forecast to de-amplify and shift into the northwest Atlantic, and the remnants of a persistent closed low may accelerate eastward out of the Southwest. Flow across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific into western Atlantic appears likely to remain largely zonal, until undergoing considerable amplification late next week into next weekend. As this occurs, the lead perturbation may eventually contribute to significant surface cyclogenesis, but this currently seems most probable offshore of the south Atlantic Seaboard early next weekend. While modest wave development is possible along a developing frontal zone across parts of the southern Great Plains through the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico next Thursday and Friday, moisture return, in the wake of the early week cold intrusion across the northern Gulf Basin, will be limited. This seems likely to preclude appreciable destabilization, while shear profiles remain marginal for organized severe convection. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models suggest that the remnant blocking regime, inland of the U.S. Pacific coast at the outset of the period, will break down by mid-week, as a new high becomes established near the Gulf of Alaska vicinity. As this occurs, large-scale downstream troughing, initially centered near the Atlantic Seaboard, is forecast to de-amplify and shift into the northwest Atlantic, and the remnants of a persistent closed low may accelerate eastward out of the Southwest. Flow across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific into western Atlantic appears likely to remain largely zonal, until undergoing considerable amplification late next week into next weekend. As this occurs, the lead perturbation may eventually contribute to significant surface cyclogenesis, but this currently seems most probable offshore of the south Atlantic Seaboard early next weekend. While modest wave development is possible along a developing frontal zone across parts of the southern Great Plains through the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico next Thursday and Friday, moisture return, in the wake of the early week cold intrusion across the northern Gulf Basin, will be limited. This seems likely to preclude appreciable destabilization, while shear profiles remain marginal for organized severe convection. Read more