Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A cold front will move through portions of the Plains today. In the wake of the front breezy northwesterly winds will occur across much of the northern/central Plains. RH could become marginally reduced by the afternoon from western South Dakota into western/central Nebraska. With some cloud cover lingering into the late morning and early afternoon, it is not certain how low RH will fall. Values near 20% are possible at least locally. Winds of 15-20 mph are also possible, though the strongest pressure gradient will be offset from the diurnal RH minimum. Overall, locally elevated fire weather is expected. ..Wendt.. 03/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A cold front will move through portions of the Plains today. In the wake of the front breezy northwesterly winds will occur across much of the northern/central Plains. RH could become marginally reduced by the afternoon from western South Dakota into western/central Nebraska. With some cloud cover lingering into the late morning and early afternoon, it is not certain how low RH will fall. Values near 20% are possible at least locally. Winds of 15-20 mph are also possible, though the strongest pressure gradient will be offset from the diurnal RH minimum. Overall, locally elevated fire weather is expected. ..Wendt.. 03/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A cold front will move through portions of the Plains today. In the wake of the front breezy northwesterly winds will occur across much of the northern/central Plains. RH could become marginally reduced by the afternoon from western South Dakota into western/central Nebraska. With some cloud cover lingering into the late morning and early afternoon, it is not certain how low RH will fall. Values near 20% are possible at least locally. Winds of 15-20 mph are also possible, though the strongest pressure gradient will be offset from the diurnal RH minimum. Overall, locally elevated fire weather is expected. ..Wendt.. 03/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A cold front will move through portions of the Plains today. In the wake of the front breezy northwesterly winds will occur across much of the northern/central Plains. RH could become marginally reduced by the afternoon from western South Dakota into western/central Nebraska. With some cloud cover lingering into the late morning and early afternoon, it is not certain how low RH will fall. Values near 20% are possible at least locally. Winds of 15-20 mph are also possible, though the strongest pressure gradient will be offset from the diurnal RH minimum. Overall, locally elevated fire weather is expected. ..Wendt.. 03/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A cold front will move through portions of the Plains today. In the wake of the front breezy northwesterly winds will occur across much of the northern/central Plains. RH could become marginally reduced by the afternoon from western South Dakota into western/central Nebraska. With some cloud cover lingering into the late morning and early afternoon, it is not certain how low RH will fall. Values near 20% are possible at least locally. Winds of 15-20 mph are also possible, though the strongest pressure gradient will be offset from the diurnal RH minimum. Overall, locally elevated fire weather is expected. ..Wendt.. 03/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A cold front will move through portions of the Plains today. In the wake of the front breezy northwesterly winds will occur across much of the northern/central Plains. RH could become marginally reduced by the afternoon from western South Dakota into western/central Nebraska. With some cloud cover lingering into the late morning and early afternoon, it is not certain how low RH will fall. Values near 20% are possible at least locally. Winds of 15-20 mph are also possible, though the strongest pressure gradient will be offset from the diurnal RH minimum. Overall, locally elevated fire weather is expected. ..Wendt.. 03/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A cold front will move through portions of the Plains today. In the wake of the front breezy northwesterly winds will occur across much of the northern/central Plains. RH could become marginally reduced by the afternoon from western South Dakota into western/central Nebraska. With some cloud cover lingering into the late morning and early afternoon, it is not certain how low RH will fall. Values near 20% are possible at least locally. Winds of 15-20 mph are also possible, though the strongest pressure gradient will be offset from the diurnal RH minimum. Overall, locally elevated fire weather is expected. ..Wendt.. 03/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0055 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 55 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW LRD TO 10 WNW LRD TO 45 NW NIR. ..BROYLES..03/16/24 ATTN...WFO...BRO...EWX...CRP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 55 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC047-131-215-247-249-311-427-479-505-160540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROOKS DUVAL HIDALGO JIM HOGG JIM WELLS MCMULLEN STARR WEBB ZAPATA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0055 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 55 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW LRD TO 10 WNW LRD TO 45 NW NIR. ..BROYLES..03/16/24 ATTN...WFO...BRO...EWX...CRP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 55 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC047-131-215-247-249-311-427-479-505-160540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROOKS DUVAL HIDALGO JIM HOGG JIM WELLS MCMULLEN STARR WEBB ZAPATA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0055 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 55 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W LRD TO 25 SW COT TO 25 SE HDO. ..BROYLES..03/16/24 ATTN...WFO...BRO...EWX...CRP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 55 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC047-131-215-247-249-283-311-427-479-505-160340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROOKS DUVAL HIDALGO JIM HOGG JIM WELLS LA SALLE MCMULLEN STARR WEBB ZAPATA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0264 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 54... FOR SOUTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0264 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0722 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Areas affected...Southwest Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 54... Valid 160022Z - 160215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 54 continues. SUMMARY...A severe threat is likely to continue for a several more hours. Large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats. Weather watch issuance will likely be needed to replace WW 54. DISCUSSION...The latest radar from Laughlin Air Force Base shows a cluster of widely spaced severe storms in the vicinity of the Rio Grande River, near and to the south of Eagle Pass and to the south-southwest of Laredo. These storms are developing to the east of an axis of moderate to strong instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range. Strong surface heating, weak large-scale ascent and low-level convergence will likely continue to support continued convective development for several more hours this evening. The instability along with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.5 to 8 C/km, and 55 knots of 0-6 km shear, evident on the Del Rio WSR-88 VWP, will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones near 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the strongest of cells. Wind damage will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 03/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO... LAT...LON 27149872 26969915 27059945 27629974 28430049 29110074 29380002 29069884 28009830 27409849 27149872 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across south TX tonight. Large hail is the primary risk. A few strong storms will linger over portions of the southeastern US this evening, including the risk for gusty winds. ...01z Update... Low-level confluence continues to sag south across deep south TX early this evening. Gulf air mass is entrenched across this region with 70s surface dew points observed south of COT-VCT. With temperatures in the upper 70s/lower 80s strong instability is noted across this region (MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg). Both CRP and BRO exhibit steep midlevel lapse rates with surface-6km bulk shear in excess of 40kt, more than adequate for sustaining organized, deep rotation. Several supercells have evolved west of the international border and this activity should gradually propagate southeast into this very buoyant, sheared environment. Have adjusted severe probabilities a bit south to account for these storms advancing into portions of the lower Rio Grande Valley. Later tonight LLJ should increase across the Edwards Plateau and warm advection should encourage additional elevated convection. Forecast soundings suggest some of this activity may be robust but hail should generally remain below severe levels across this region. ..Darrow.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across south TX tonight. Large hail is the primary risk. A few strong storms will linger over portions of the southeastern US this evening, including the risk for gusty winds. ...01z Update... Low-level confluence continues to sag south across deep south TX early this evening. Gulf air mass is entrenched across this region with 70s surface dew points observed south of COT-VCT. With temperatures in the upper 70s/lower 80s strong instability is noted across this region (MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg). Both CRP and BRO exhibit steep midlevel lapse rates with surface-6km bulk shear in excess of 40kt, more than adequate for sustaining organized, deep rotation. Several supercells have evolved west of the international border and this activity should gradually propagate southeast into this very buoyant, sheared environment. Have adjusted severe probabilities a bit south to account for these storms advancing into portions of the lower Rio Grande Valley. Later tonight LLJ should increase across the Edwards Plateau and warm advection should encourage additional elevated convection. Forecast soundings suggest some of this activity may be robust but hail should generally remain below severe levels across this region. ..Darrow.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across south TX tonight. Large hail is the primary risk. A few strong storms will linger over portions of the southeastern US this evening, including the risk for gusty winds. ...01z Update... Low-level confluence continues to sag south across deep south TX early this evening. Gulf air mass is entrenched across this region with 70s surface dew points observed south of COT-VCT. With temperatures in the upper 70s/lower 80s strong instability is noted across this region (MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg). Both CRP and BRO exhibit steep midlevel lapse rates with surface-6km bulk shear in excess of 40kt, more than adequate for sustaining organized, deep rotation. Several supercells have evolved west of the international border and this activity should gradually propagate southeast into this very buoyant, sheared environment. Have adjusted severe probabilities a bit south to account for these storms advancing into portions of the lower Rio Grande Valley. Later tonight LLJ should increase across the Edwards Plateau and warm advection should encourage additional elevated convection. Forecast soundings suggest some of this activity may be robust but hail should generally remain below severe levels across this region. ..Darrow.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across south TX tonight. Large hail is the primary risk. A few strong storms will linger over portions of the southeastern US this evening, including the risk for gusty winds. ...01z Update... Low-level confluence continues to sag south across deep south TX early this evening. Gulf air mass is entrenched across this region with 70s surface dew points observed south of COT-VCT. With temperatures in the upper 70s/lower 80s strong instability is noted across this region (MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg). Both CRP and BRO exhibit steep midlevel lapse rates with surface-6km bulk shear in excess of 40kt, more than adequate for sustaining organized, deep rotation. Several supercells have evolved west of the international border and this activity should gradually propagate southeast into this very buoyant, sheared environment. Have adjusted severe probabilities a bit south to account for these storms advancing into portions of the lower Rio Grande Valley. Later tonight LLJ should increase across the Edwards Plateau and warm advection should encourage additional elevated convection. Forecast soundings suggest some of this activity may be robust but hail should generally remain below severe levels across this region. ..Darrow.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across south TX tonight. Large hail is the primary risk. A few strong storms will linger over portions of the southeastern US this evening, including the risk for gusty winds. ...01z Update... Low-level confluence continues to sag south across deep south TX early this evening. Gulf air mass is entrenched across this region with 70s surface dew points observed south of COT-VCT. With temperatures in the upper 70s/lower 80s strong instability is noted across this region (MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg). Both CRP and BRO exhibit steep midlevel lapse rates with surface-6km bulk shear in excess of 40kt, more than adequate for sustaining organized, deep rotation. Several supercells have evolved west of the international border and this activity should gradually propagate southeast into this very buoyant, sheared environment. Have adjusted severe probabilities a bit south to account for these storms advancing into portions of the lower Rio Grande Valley. Later tonight LLJ should increase across the Edwards Plateau and warm advection should encourage additional elevated convection. Forecast soundings suggest some of this activity may be robust but hail should generally remain below severe levels across this region. ..Darrow.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across south TX tonight. Large hail is the primary risk. A few strong storms will linger over portions of the southeastern US this evening, including the risk for gusty winds. ...01z Update... Low-level confluence continues to sag south across deep south TX early this evening. Gulf air mass is entrenched across this region with 70s surface dew points observed south of COT-VCT. With temperatures in the upper 70s/lower 80s strong instability is noted across this region (MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg). Both CRP and BRO exhibit steep midlevel lapse rates with surface-6km bulk shear in excess of 40kt, more than adequate for sustaining organized, deep rotation. Several supercells have evolved west of the international border and this activity should gradually propagate southeast into this very buoyant, sheared environment. Have adjusted severe probabilities a bit south to account for these storms advancing into portions of the lower Rio Grande Valley. Later tonight LLJ should increase across the Edwards Plateau and warm advection should encourage additional elevated convection. Forecast soundings suggest some of this activity may be robust but hail should generally remain below severe levels across this region. ..Darrow.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across south TX tonight. Large hail is the primary risk. A few strong storms will linger over portions of the southeastern US this evening, including the risk for gusty winds. ...01z Update... Low-level confluence continues to sag south across deep south TX early this evening. Gulf air mass is entrenched across this region with 70s surface dew points observed south of COT-VCT. With temperatures in the upper 70s/lower 80s strong instability is noted across this region (MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg). Both CRP and BRO exhibit steep midlevel lapse rates with surface-6km bulk shear in excess of 40kt, more than adequate for sustaining organized, deep rotation. Several supercells have evolved west of the international border and this activity should gradually propagate southeast into this very buoyant, sheared environment. Have adjusted severe probabilities a bit south to account for these storms advancing into portions of the lower Rio Grande Valley. Later tonight LLJ should increase across the Edwards Plateau and warm advection should encourage additional elevated convection. Forecast soundings suggest some of this activity may be robust but hail should generally remain below severe levels across this region. ..Darrow.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across south TX tonight. Large hail is the primary risk. A few strong storms will linger over portions of the southeastern US this evening, including the risk for gusty winds. ...01z Update... Low-level confluence continues to sag south across deep south TX early this evening. Gulf air mass is entrenched across this region with 70s surface dew points observed south of COT-VCT. With temperatures in the upper 70s/lower 80s strong instability is noted across this region (MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg). Both CRP and BRO exhibit steep midlevel lapse rates with surface-6km bulk shear in excess of 40kt, more than adequate for sustaining organized, deep rotation. Several supercells have evolved west of the international border and this activity should gradually propagate southeast into this very buoyant, sheared environment. Have adjusted severe probabilities a bit south to account for these storms advancing into portions of the lower Rio Grande Valley. Later tonight LLJ should increase across the Edwards Plateau and warm advection should encourage additional elevated convection. Forecast soundings suggest some of this activity may be robust but hail should generally remain below severe levels across this region. ..Darrow.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across south TX tonight. Large hail is the primary risk. A few strong storms will linger over portions of the southeastern US this evening, including the risk for gusty winds. ...01z Update... Low-level confluence continues to sag south across deep south TX early this evening. Gulf air mass is entrenched across this region with 70s surface dew points observed south of COT-VCT. With temperatures in the upper 70s/lower 80s strong instability is noted across this region (MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg). Both CRP and BRO exhibit steep midlevel lapse rates with surface-6km bulk shear in excess of 40kt, more than adequate for sustaining organized, deep rotation. Several supercells have evolved west of the international border and this activity should gradually propagate southeast into this very buoyant, sheared environment. Have adjusted severe probabilities a bit south to account for these storms advancing into portions of the lower Rio Grande Valley. Later tonight LLJ should increase across the Edwards Plateau and warm advection should encourage additional elevated convection. Forecast soundings suggest some of this activity may be robust but hail should generally remain below severe levels across this region. ..Darrow.. 03/16/2024 Read more