Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Fire weather potential appears limited through the extended period. Although localized concerns may emerge across portions of the central Plains and southern High Plains around mid-week, the potential for critical fire weather conditions is too limited to confidently introduce risk probabilities. Long-range guidance shows relatively good agreement in the maintenance of a broad northwesterly flow regime across the central CONUS through the end of the weekend and into the middle of next week. This synoptic regime will favor cool, but dry, conditions across the central Plains with low probability for wetting precipitation through roughly D6/Wednesday (per recent GEFS/EC ensemble guidance). Dry cold frontal passages featuring breezy winds will pose a risk of localized fire weather concerns given the low probability for precipitation and ongoing drought conditions across portions of the central/northern Plains. Ensemble consensus suggests that such frontal passages are most probable during the D3/Sun to D4/Mon time frame, but confidence in reaching critical thresholds is limited at this time. To the south, the upper-low currently over the lower CO River Valley is forecast to gradually deamplify before meandering east into the southern High Plains around D6/Wednesday. Weakening upper-level flow should limit the potential for widespread strong winds, but localized elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible for parts of the southern High Plains - most likely Southwest TX into adjacent areas of southeast NM. While this potential is noted, a weak signal in extended ensemble guidance precludes introducing a risk area. ..Moore.. 03/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Fire weather potential appears limited through the extended period. Although localized concerns may emerge across portions of the central Plains and southern High Plains around mid-week, the potential for critical fire weather conditions is too limited to confidently introduce risk probabilities. Long-range guidance shows relatively good agreement in the maintenance of a broad northwesterly flow regime across the central CONUS through the end of the weekend and into the middle of next week. This synoptic regime will favor cool, but dry, conditions across the central Plains with low probability for wetting precipitation through roughly D6/Wednesday (per recent GEFS/EC ensemble guidance). Dry cold frontal passages featuring breezy winds will pose a risk of localized fire weather concerns given the low probability for precipitation and ongoing drought conditions across portions of the central/northern Plains. Ensemble consensus suggests that such frontal passages are most probable during the D3/Sun to D4/Mon time frame, but confidence in reaching critical thresholds is limited at this time. To the south, the upper-low currently over the lower CO River Valley is forecast to gradually deamplify before meandering east into the southern High Plains around D6/Wednesday. Weakening upper-level flow should limit the potential for widespread strong winds, but localized elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible for parts of the southern High Plains - most likely Southwest TX into adjacent areas of southeast NM. While this potential is noted, a weak signal in extended ensemble guidance precludes introducing a risk area. ..Moore.. 03/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Fire weather potential appears limited through the extended period. Although localized concerns may emerge across portions of the central Plains and southern High Plains around mid-week, the potential for critical fire weather conditions is too limited to confidently introduce risk probabilities. Long-range guidance shows relatively good agreement in the maintenance of a broad northwesterly flow regime across the central CONUS through the end of the weekend and into the middle of next week. This synoptic regime will favor cool, but dry, conditions across the central Plains with low probability for wetting precipitation through roughly D6/Wednesday (per recent GEFS/EC ensemble guidance). Dry cold frontal passages featuring breezy winds will pose a risk of localized fire weather concerns given the low probability for precipitation and ongoing drought conditions across portions of the central/northern Plains. Ensemble consensus suggests that such frontal passages are most probable during the D3/Sun to D4/Mon time frame, but confidence in reaching critical thresholds is limited at this time. To the south, the upper-low currently over the lower CO River Valley is forecast to gradually deamplify before meandering east into the southern High Plains around D6/Wednesday. Weakening upper-level flow should limit the potential for widespread strong winds, but localized elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible for parts of the southern High Plains - most likely Southwest TX into adjacent areas of southeast NM. While this potential is noted, a weak signal in extended ensemble guidance precludes introducing a risk area. ..Moore.. 03/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Fire weather potential appears limited through the extended period. Although localized concerns may emerge across portions of the central Plains and southern High Plains around mid-week, the potential for critical fire weather conditions is too limited to confidently introduce risk probabilities. Long-range guidance shows relatively good agreement in the maintenance of a broad northwesterly flow regime across the central CONUS through the end of the weekend and into the middle of next week. This synoptic regime will favor cool, but dry, conditions across the central Plains with low probability for wetting precipitation through roughly D6/Wednesday (per recent GEFS/EC ensemble guidance). Dry cold frontal passages featuring breezy winds will pose a risk of localized fire weather concerns given the low probability for precipitation and ongoing drought conditions across portions of the central/northern Plains. Ensemble consensus suggests that such frontal passages are most probable during the D3/Sun to D4/Mon time frame, but confidence in reaching critical thresholds is limited at this time. To the south, the upper-low currently over the lower CO River Valley is forecast to gradually deamplify before meandering east into the southern High Plains around D6/Wednesday. Weakening upper-level flow should limit the potential for widespread strong winds, but localized elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible for parts of the southern High Plains - most likely Southwest TX into adjacent areas of southeast NM. While this potential is noted, a weak signal in extended ensemble guidance precludes introducing a risk area. ..Moore.. 03/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Fire weather potential appears limited through the extended period. Although localized concerns may emerge across portions of the central Plains and southern High Plains around mid-week, the potential for critical fire weather conditions is too limited to confidently introduce risk probabilities. Long-range guidance shows relatively good agreement in the maintenance of a broad northwesterly flow regime across the central CONUS through the end of the weekend and into the middle of next week. This synoptic regime will favor cool, but dry, conditions across the central Plains with low probability for wetting precipitation through roughly D6/Wednesday (per recent GEFS/EC ensemble guidance). Dry cold frontal passages featuring breezy winds will pose a risk of localized fire weather concerns given the low probability for precipitation and ongoing drought conditions across portions of the central/northern Plains. Ensemble consensus suggests that such frontal passages are most probable during the D3/Sun to D4/Mon time frame, but confidence in reaching critical thresholds is limited at this time. To the south, the upper-low currently over the lower CO River Valley is forecast to gradually deamplify before meandering east into the southern High Plains around D6/Wednesday. Weakening upper-level flow should limit the potential for widespread strong winds, but localized elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible for parts of the southern High Plains - most likely Southwest TX into adjacent areas of southeast NM. While this potential is noted, a weak signal in extended ensemble guidance precludes introducing a risk area. ..Moore.. 03/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Fire weather potential appears limited through the extended period. Although localized concerns may emerge across portions of the central Plains and southern High Plains around mid-week, the potential for critical fire weather conditions is too limited to confidently introduce risk probabilities. Long-range guidance shows relatively good agreement in the maintenance of a broad northwesterly flow regime across the central CONUS through the end of the weekend and into the middle of next week. This synoptic regime will favor cool, but dry, conditions across the central Plains with low probability for wetting precipitation through roughly D6/Wednesday (per recent GEFS/EC ensemble guidance). Dry cold frontal passages featuring breezy winds will pose a risk of localized fire weather concerns given the low probability for precipitation and ongoing drought conditions across portions of the central/northern Plains. Ensemble consensus suggests that such frontal passages are most probable during the D3/Sun to D4/Mon time frame, but confidence in reaching critical thresholds is limited at this time. To the south, the upper-low currently over the lower CO River Valley is forecast to gradually deamplify before meandering east into the southern High Plains around D6/Wednesday. Weakening upper-level flow should limit the potential for widespread strong winds, but localized elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible for parts of the southern High Plains - most likely Southwest TX into adjacent areas of southeast NM. While this potential is noted, a weak signal in extended ensemble guidance precludes introducing a risk area. ..Moore.. 03/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Fire weather potential appears limited through the extended period. Although localized concerns may emerge across portions of the central Plains and southern High Plains around mid-week, the potential for critical fire weather conditions is too limited to confidently introduce risk probabilities. Long-range guidance shows relatively good agreement in the maintenance of a broad northwesterly flow regime across the central CONUS through the end of the weekend and into the middle of next week. This synoptic regime will favor cool, but dry, conditions across the central Plains with low probability for wetting precipitation through roughly D6/Wednesday (per recent GEFS/EC ensemble guidance). Dry cold frontal passages featuring breezy winds will pose a risk of localized fire weather concerns given the low probability for precipitation and ongoing drought conditions across portions of the central/northern Plains. Ensemble consensus suggests that such frontal passages are most probable during the D3/Sun to D4/Mon time frame, but confidence in reaching critical thresholds is limited at this time. To the south, the upper-low currently over the lower CO River Valley is forecast to gradually deamplify before meandering east into the southern High Plains around D6/Wednesday. Weakening upper-level flow should limit the potential for widespread strong winds, but localized elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible for parts of the southern High Plains - most likely Southwest TX into adjacent areas of southeast NM. While this potential is noted, a weak signal in extended ensemble guidance precludes introducing a risk area. ..Moore.. 03/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Fire weather potential appears limited through the extended period. Although localized concerns may emerge across portions of the central Plains and southern High Plains around mid-week, the potential for critical fire weather conditions is too limited to confidently introduce risk probabilities. Long-range guidance shows relatively good agreement in the maintenance of a broad northwesterly flow regime across the central CONUS through the end of the weekend and into the middle of next week. This synoptic regime will favor cool, but dry, conditions across the central Plains with low probability for wetting precipitation through roughly D6/Wednesday (per recent GEFS/EC ensemble guidance). Dry cold frontal passages featuring breezy winds will pose a risk of localized fire weather concerns given the low probability for precipitation and ongoing drought conditions across portions of the central/northern Plains. Ensemble consensus suggests that such frontal passages are most probable during the D3/Sun to D4/Mon time frame, but confidence in reaching critical thresholds is limited at this time. To the south, the upper-low currently over the lower CO River Valley is forecast to gradually deamplify before meandering east into the southern High Plains around D6/Wednesday. Weakening upper-level flow should limit the potential for widespread strong winds, but localized elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible for parts of the southern High Plains - most likely Southwest TX into adjacent areas of southeast NM. While this potential is noted, a weak signal in extended ensemble guidance precludes introducing a risk area. ..Moore.. 03/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Fire weather potential appears limited through the extended period. Although localized concerns may emerge across portions of the central Plains and southern High Plains around mid-week, the potential for critical fire weather conditions is too limited to confidently introduce risk probabilities. Long-range guidance shows relatively good agreement in the maintenance of a broad northwesterly flow regime across the central CONUS through the end of the weekend and into the middle of next week. This synoptic regime will favor cool, but dry, conditions across the central Plains with low probability for wetting precipitation through roughly D6/Wednesday (per recent GEFS/EC ensemble guidance). Dry cold frontal passages featuring breezy winds will pose a risk of localized fire weather concerns given the low probability for precipitation and ongoing drought conditions across portions of the central/northern Plains. Ensemble consensus suggests that such frontal passages are most probable during the D3/Sun to D4/Mon time frame, but confidence in reaching critical thresholds is limited at this time. To the south, the upper-low currently over the lower CO River Valley is forecast to gradually deamplify before meandering east into the southern High Plains around D6/Wednesday. Weakening upper-level flow should limit the potential for widespread strong winds, but localized elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible for parts of the southern High Plains - most likely Southwest TX into adjacent areas of southeast NM. While this potential is noted, a weak signal in extended ensemble guidance precludes introducing a risk area. ..Moore.. 03/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Fire weather potential appears limited through the extended period. Although localized concerns may emerge across portions of the central Plains and southern High Plains around mid-week, the potential for critical fire weather conditions is too limited to confidently introduce risk probabilities. Long-range guidance shows relatively good agreement in the maintenance of a broad northwesterly flow regime across the central CONUS through the end of the weekend and into the middle of next week. This synoptic regime will favor cool, but dry, conditions across the central Plains with low probability for wetting precipitation through roughly D6/Wednesday (per recent GEFS/EC ensemble guidance). Dry cold frontal passages featuring breezy winds will pose a risk of localized fire weather concerns given the low probability for precipitation and ongoing drought conditions across portions of the central/northern Plains. Ensemble consensus suggests that such frontal passages are most probable during the D3/Sun to D4/Mon time frame, but confidence in reaching critical thresholds is limited at this time. To the south, the upper-low currently over the lower CO River Valley is forecast to gradually deamplify before meandering east into the southern High Plains around D6/Wednesday. Weakening upper-level flow should limit the potential for widespread strong winds, but localized elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible for parts of the southern High Plains - most likely Southwest TX into adjacent areas of southeast NM. While this potential is noted, a weak signal in extended ensemble guidance precludes introducing a risk area. ..Moore.. 03/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Fire weather potential appears limited through the extended period. Although localized concerns may emerge across portions of the central Plains and southern High Plains around mid-week, the potential for critical fire weather conditions is too limited to confidently introduce risk probabilities. Long-range guidance shows relatively good agreement in the maintenance of a broad northwesterly flow regime across the central CONUS through the end of the weekend and into the middle of next week. This synoptic regime will favor cool, but dry, conditions across the central Plains with low probability for wetting precipitation through roughly D6/Wednesday (per recent GEFS/EC ensemble guidance). Dry cold frontal passages featuring breezy winds will pose a risk of localized fire weather concerns given the low probability for precipitation and ongoing drought conditions across portions of the central/northern Plains. Ensemble consensus suggests that such frontal passages are most probable during the D3/Sun to D4/Mon time frame, but confidence in reaching critical thresholds is limited at this time. To the south, the upper-low currently over the lower CO River Valley is forecast to gradually deamplify before meandering east into the southern High Plains around D6/Wednesday. Weakening upper-level flow should limit the potential for widespread strong winds, but localized elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible for parts of the southern High Plains - most likely Southwest TX into adjacent areas of southeast NM. While this potential is noted, a weak signal in extended ensemble guidance precludes introducing a risk area. ..Moore.. 03/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with very large hail and isolated damaging winds are expected through this afternoon and overnight from the Edwards Plateau into south-central Texas. Additionally, damaging winds and hail will be possible extending eastward from south-central Texas across the central Gulf Coast region. Little change was needed at 20Z to the existing outlook. An elongated area of severe risk persists from TX eastward along the Gulf coast. Very large hail is possible over TX today. For more information see mesoscale discussion 259. ..Jewell.. 03/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/ ...Edwards Plateau region into South Texas... As a short-wave trough continues shifting eastward away from the region/across East Texas/Arkansas/Louisiana, weak subsidence should suppress convective development into early afternoon. However, strong heating of the moist boundary layer near and south of the front, combined with steep lapse rates aloft, will provide a very favorable thermodynamic environment (mixed-layer cape in excess of 2500 to 3000 J/kg). Despite the weak forcing aloft, low-level ascent near and just north of the surface front, and near upslope-favored areas just west of the Rio Grande, should result in at least isolated storm development this afternoon, with any storms rapidly becoming supercells. While low-level veering is sufficient to support low-probability risk for a tornado, very large hail -- in excess of baseball size -- will be the primary severe risk. Locally damaging winds will also be possible -- particularly if storms can cluster together and spread southeastward toward south Texas later this afternoon and evening. ...Southeastern Texas eastward to the Southeast... Thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from Louisiana eastward across Georgia and South Carolina, in the vicinity of the sagging surface cold front. Near and south of the boundary, broken cloud cover is allowing for some heating, which -- combined with the moist boundary layer and sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates -- has pushed mixed-layer CAPE values into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range from the Texas Coastal Plain eastward to southwestern Alabama. Flow just off the surface is veered/southwesterly across this region, resulting in a unidirectional deep-layer wind field across this area. While this should largely limit overall tornado potential, the increasing flow with height is providing favorable directional shear for organized storms, and attendant risks for damaging winds and hail. Expect storms to increase in coverage through late morning/early afternoon, with an attendant/expanding severe threat to follow. Risk will sag southeastward with time, possibly lingering into early evening before diurnally decreasing/shifting offshore. Farther west, across southeastern Texas and the Coastal Plain, broken clouds are allowing ample heating/destabilization to occur. CAMs continue to forecast a separate cluster of storms developing across this region near the sagging front, which seems reasonable in tandem with the short-wave trough presently moving eastward across this area. With deep-layer shear plenty sufficient for organized/rotating storms, locally damaging winds and large hail are expected. This convection should spread eastward across southeastern Texas this afternoon and evening, and possibly into southwestern Louisiana before weakening overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with very large hail and isolated damaging winds are expected through this afternoon and overnight from the Edwards Plateau into south-central Texas. Additionally, damaging winds and hail will be possible extending eastward from south-central Texas across the central Gulf Coast region. Little change was needed at 20Z to the existing outlook. An elongated area of severe risk persists from TX eastward along the Gulf coast. Very large hail is possible over TX today. For more information see mesoscale discussion 259. ..Jewell.. 03/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/ ...Edwards Plateau region into South Texas... As a short-wave trough continues shifting eastward away from the region/across East Texas/Arkansas/Louisiana, weak subsidence should suppress convective development into early afternoon. However, strong heating of the moist boundary layer near and south of the front, combined with steep lapse rates aloft, will provide a very favorable thermodynamic environment (mixed-layer cape in excess of 2500 to 3000 J/kg). Despite the weak forcing aloft, low-level ascent near and just north of the surface front, and near upslope-favored areas just west of the Rio Grande, should result in at least isolated storm development this afternoon, with any storms rapidly becoming supercells. While low-level veering is sufficient to support low-probability risk for a tornado, very large hail -- in excess of baseball size -- will be the primary severe risk. Locally damaging winds will also be possible -- particularly if storms can cluster together and spread southeastward toward south Texas later this afternoon and evening. ...Southeastern Texas eastward to the Southeast... Thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from Louisiana eastward across Georgia and South Carolina, in the vicinity of the sagging surface cold front. Near and south of the boundary, broken cloud cover is allowing for some heating, which -- combined with the moist boundary layer and sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates -- has pushed mixed-layer CAPE values into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range from the Texas Coastal Plain eastward to southwestern Alabama. Flow just off the surface is veered/southwesterly across this region, resulting in a unidirectional deep-layer wind field across this area. While this should largely limit overall tornado potential, the increasing flow with height is providing favorable directional shear for organized storms, and attendant risks for damaging winds and hail. Expect storms to increase in coverage through late morning/early afternoon, with an attendant/expanding severe threat to follow. Risk will sag southeastward with time, possibly lingering into early evening before diurnally decreasing/shifting offshore. Farther west, across southeastern Texas and the Coastal Plain, broken clouds are allowing ample heating/destabilization to occur. CAMs continue to forecast a separate cluster of storms developing across this region near the sagging front, which seems reasonable in tandem with the short-wave trough presently moving eastward across this area. With deep-layer shear plenty sufficient for organized/rotating storms, locally damaging winds and large hail are expected. This convection should spread eastward across southeastern Texas this afternoon and evening, and possibly into southwestern Louisiana before weakening overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with very large hail and isolated damaging winds are expected through this afternoon and overnight from the Edwards Plateau into south-central Texas. Additionally, damaging winds and hail will be possible extending eastward from south-central Texas across the central Gulf Coast region. Little change was needed at 20Z to the existing outlook. An elongated area of severe risk persists from TX eastward along the Gulf coast. Very large hail is possible over TX today. For more information see mesoscale discussion 259. ..Jewell.. 03/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/ ...Edwards Plateau region into South Texas... As a short-wave trough continues shifting eastward away from the region/across East Texas/Arkansas/Louisiana, weak subsidence should suppress convective development into early afternoon. However, strong heating of the moist boundary layer near and south of the front, combined with steep lapse rates aloft, will provide a very favorable thermodynamic environment (mixed-layer cape in excess of 2500 to 3000 J/kg). Despite the weak forcing aloft, low-level ascent near and just north of the surface front, and near upslope-favored areas just west of the Rio Grande, should result in at least isolated storm development this afternoon, with any storms rapidly becoming supercells. While low-level veering is sufficient to support low-probability risk for a tornado, very large hail -- in excess of baseball size -- will be the primary severe risk. Locally damaging winds will also be possible -- particularly if storms can cluster together and spread southeastward toward south Texas later this afternoon and evening. ...Southeastern Texas eastward to the Southeast... Thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from Louisiana eastward across Georgia and South Carolina, in the vicinity of the sagging surface cold front. Near and south of the boundary, broken cloud cover is allowing for some heating, which -- combined with the moist boundary layer and sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates -- has pushed mixed-layer CAPE values into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range from the Texas Coastal Plain eastward to southwestern Alabama. Flow just off the surface is veered/southwesterly across this region, resulting in a unidirectional deep-layer wind field across this area. While this should largely limit overall tornado potential, the increasing flow with height is providing favorable directional shear for organized storms, and attendant risks for damaging winds and hail. Expect storms to increase in coverage through late morning/early afternoon, with an attendant/expanding severe threat to follow. Risk will sag southeastward with time, possibly lingering into early evening before diurnally decreasing/shifting offshore. Farther west, across southeastern Texas and the Coastal Plain, broken clouds are allowing ample heating/destabilization to occur. CAMs continue to forecast a separate cluster of storms developing across this region near the sagging front, which seems reasonable in tandem with the short-wave trough presently moving eastward across this area. With deep-layer shear plenty sufficient for organized/rotating storms, locally damaging winds and large hail are expected. This convection should spread eastward across southeastern Texas this afternoon and evening, and possibly into southwestern Louisiana before weakening overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with very large hail and isolated damaging winds are expected through this afternoon and overnight from the Edwards Plateau into south-central Texas. Additionally, damaging winds and hail will be possible extending eastward from south-central Texas across the central Gulf Coast region. Little change was needed at 20Z to the existing outlook. An elongated area of severe risk persists from TX eastward along the Gulf coast. Very large hail is possible over TX today. For more information see mesoscale discussion 259. ..Jewell.. 03/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/ ...Edwards Plateau region into South Texas... As a short-wave trough continues shifting eastward away from the region/across East Texas/Arkansas/Louisiana, weak subsidence should suppress convective development into early afternoon. However, strong heating of the moist boundary layer near and south of the front, combined with steep lapse rates aloft, will provide a very favorable thermodynamic environment (mixed-layer cape in excess of 2500 to 3000 J/kg). Despite the weak forcing aloft, low-level ascent near and just north of the surface front, and near upslope-favored areas just west of the Rio Grande, should result in at least isolated storm development this afternoon, with any storms rapidly becoming supercells. While low-level veering is sufficient to support low-probability risk for a tornado, very large hail -- in excess of baseball size -- will be the primary severe risk. Locally damaging winds will also be possible -- particularly if storms can cluster together and spread southeastward toward south Texas later this afternoon and evening. ...Southeastern Texas eastward to the Southeast... Thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from Louisiana eastward across Georgia and South Carolina, in the vicinity of the sagging surface cold front. Near and south of the boundary, broken cloud cover is allowing for some heating, which -- combined with the moist boundary layer and sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates -- has pushed mixed-layer CAPE values into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range from the Texas Coastal Plain eastward to southwestern Alabama. Flow just off the surface is veered/southwesterly across this region, resulting in a unidirectional deep-layer wind field across this area. While this should largely limit overall tornado potential, the increasing flow with height is providing favorable directional shear for organized storms, and attendant risks for damaging winds and hail. Expect storms to increase in coverage through late morning/early afternoon, with an attendant/expanding severe threat to follow. Risk will sag southeastward with time, possibly lingering into early evening before diurnally decreasing/shifting offshore. Farther west, across southeastern Texas and the Coastal Plain, broken clouds are allowing ample heating/destabilization to occur. CAMs continue to forecast a separate cluster of storms developing across this region near the sagging front, which seems reasonable in tandem with the short-wave trough presently moving eastward across this area. With deep-layer shear plenty sufficient for organized/rotating storms, locally damaging winds and large hail are expected. This convection should spread eastward across southeastern Texas this afternoon and evening, and possibly into southwestern Louisiana before weakening overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with very large hail and isolated damaging winds are expected through this afternoon and overnight from the Edwards Plateau into south-central Texas. Additionally, damaging winds and hail will be possible extending eastward from south-central Texas across the central Gulf Coast region. Little change was needed at 20Z to the existing outlook. An elongated area of severe risk persists from TX eastward along the Gulf coast. Very large hail is possible over TX today. For more information see mesoscale discussion 259. ..Jewell.. 03/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/ ...Edwards Plateau region into South Texas... As a short-wave trough continues shifting eastward away from the region/across East Texas/Arkansas/Louisiana, weak subsidence should suppress convective development into early afternoon. However, strong heating of the moist boundary layer near and south of the front, combined with steep lapse rates aloft, will provide a very favorable thermodynamic environment (mixed-layer cape in excess of 2500 to 3000 J/kg). Despite the weak forcing aloft, low-level ascent near and just north of the surface front, and near upslope-favored areas just west of the Rio Grande, should result in at least isolated storm development this afternoon, with any storms rapidly becoming supercells. While low-level veering is sufficient to support low-probability risk for a tornado, very large hail -- in excess of baseball size -- will be the primary severe risk. Locally damaging winds will also be possible -- particularly if storms can cluster together and spread southeastward toward south Texas later this afternoon and evening. ...Southeastern Texas eastward to the Southeast... Thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from Louisiana eastward across Georgia and South Carolina, in the vicinity of the sagging surface cold front. Near and south of the boundary, broken cloud cover is allowing for some heating, which -- combined with the moist boundary layer and sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates -- has pushed mixed-layer CAPE values into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range from the Texas Coastal Plain eastward to southwestern Alabama. Flow just off the surface is veered/southwesterly across this region, resulting in a unidirectional deep-layer wind field across this area. While this should largely limit overall tornado potential, the increasing flow with height is providing favorable directional shear for organized storms, and attendant risks for damaging winds and hail. Expect storms to increase in coverage through late morning/early afternoon, with an attendant/expanding severe threat to follow. Risk will sag southeastward with time, possibly lingering into early evening before diurnally decreasing/shifting offshore. Farther west, across southeastern Texas and the Coastal Plain, broken clouds are allowing ample heating/destabilization to occur. CAMs continue to forecast a separate cluster of storms developing across this region near the sagging front, which seems reasonable in tandem with the short-wave trough presently moving eastward across this area. With deep-layer shear plenty sufficient for organized/rotating storms, locally damaging winds and large hail are expected. This convection should spread eastward across southeastern Texas this afternoon and evening, and possibly into southwestern Louisiana before weakening overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with very large hail and isolated damaging winds are expected through this afternoon and overnight from the Edwards Plateau into south-central Texas. Additionally, damaging winds and hail will be possible extending eastward from south-central Texas across the central Gulf Coast region. Little change was needed at 20Z to the existing outlook. An elongated area of severe risk persists from TX eastward along the Gulf coast. Very large hail is possible over TX today. For more information see mesoscale discussion 259. ..Jewell.. 03/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/ ...Edwards Plateau region into South Texas... As a short-wave trough continues shifting eastward away from the region/across East Texas/Arkansas/Louisiana, weak subsidence should suppress convective development into early afternoon. However, strong heating of the moist boundary layer near and south of the front, combined with steep lapse rates aloft, will provide a very favorable thermodynamic environment (mixed-layer cape in excess of 2500 to 3000 J/kg). Despite the weak forcing aloft, low-level ascent near and just north of the surface front, and near upslope-favored areas just west of the Rio Grande, should result in at least isolated storm development this afternoon, with any storms rapidly becoming supercells. While low-level veering is sufficient to support low-probability risk for a tornado, very large hail -- in excess of baseball size -- will be the primary severe risk. Locally damaging winds will also be possible -- particularly if storms can cluster together and spread southeastward toward south Texas later this afternoon and evening. ...Southeastern Texas eastward to the Southeast... Thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from Louisiana eastward across Georgia and South Carolina, in the vicinity of the sagging surface cold front. Near and south of the boundary, broken cloud cover is allowing for some heating, which -- combined with the moist boundary layer and sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates -- has pushed mixed-layer CAPE values into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range from the Texas Coastal Plain eastward to southwestern Alabama. Flow just off the surface is veered/southwesterly across this region, resulting in a unidirectional deep-layer wind field across this area. While this should largely limit overall tornado potential, the increasing flow with height is providing favorable directional shear for organized storms, and attendant risks for damaging winds and hail. Expect storms to increase in coverage through late morning/early afternoon, with an attendant/expanding severe threat to follow. Risk will sag southeastward with time, possibly lingering into early evening before diurnally decreasing/shifting offshore. Farther west, across southeastern Texas and the Coastal Plain, broken clouds are allowing ample heating/destabilization to occur. CAMs continue to forecast a separate cluster of storms developing across this region near the sagging front, which seems reasonable in tandem with the short-wave trough presently moving eastward across this area. With deep-layer shear plenty sufficient for organized/rotating storms, locally damaging winds and large hail are expected. This convection should spread eastward across southeastern Texas this afternoon and evening, and possibly into southwestern Louisiana before weakening overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with very large hail and isolated damaging winds are expected through this afternoon and overnight from the Edwards Plateau into south-central Texas. Additionally, damaging winds and hail will be possible extending eastward from south-central Texas across the central Gulf Coast region. Little change was needed at 20Z to the existing outlook. An elongated area of severe risk persists from TX eastward along the Gulf coast. Very large hail is possible over TX today. For more information see mesoscale discussion 259. ..Jewell.. 03/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/ ...Edwards Plateau region into South Texas... As a short-wave trough continues shifting eastward away from the region/across East Texas/Arkansas/Louisiana, weak subsidence should suppress convective development into early afternoon. However, strong heating of the moist boundary layer near and south of the front, combined with steep lapse rates aloft, will provide a very favorable thermodynamic environment (mixed-layer cape in excess of 2500 to 3000 J/kg). Despite the weak forcing aloft, low-level ascent near and just north of the surface front, and near upslope-favored areas just west of the Rio Grande, should result in at least isolated storm development this afternoon, with any storms rapidly becoming supercells. While low-level veering is sufficient to support low-probability risk for a tornado, very large hail -- in excess of baseball size -- will be the primary severe risk. Locally damaging winds will also be possible -- particularly if storms can cluster together and spread southeastward toward south Texas later this afternoon and evening. ...Southeastern Texas eastward to the Southeast... Thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from Louisiana eastward across Georgia and South Carolina, in the vicinity of the sagging surface cold front. Near and south of the boundary, broken cloud cover is allowing for some heating, which -- combined with the moist boundary layer and sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates -- has pushed mixed-layer CAPE values into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range from the Texas Coastal Plain eastward to southwestern Alabama. Flow just off the surface is veered/southwesterly across this region, resulting in a unidirectional deep-layer wind field across this area. While this should largely limit overall tornado potential, the increasing flow with height is providing favorable directional shear for organized storms, and attendant risks for damaging winds and hail. Expect storms to increase in coverage through late morning/early afternoon, with an attendant/expanding severe threat to follow. Risk will sag southeastward with time, possibly lingering into early evening before diurnally decreasing/shifting offshore. Farther west, across southeastern Texas and the Coastal Plain, broken clouds are allowing ample heating/destabilization to occur. CAMs continue to forecast a separate cluster of storms developing across this region near the sagging front, which seems reasonable in tandem with the short-wave trough presently moving eastward across this area. With deep-layer shear plenty sufficient for organized/rotating storms, locally damaging winds and large hail are expected. This convection should spread eastward across southeastern Texas this afternoon and evening, and possibly into southwestern Louisiana before weakening overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with very large hail and isolated damaging winds are expected through this afternoon and overnight from the Edwards Plateau into south-central Texas. Additionally, damaging winds and hail will be possible extending eastward from south-central Texas across the central Gulf Coast region. Little change was needed at 20Z to the existing outlook. An elongated area of severe risk persists from TX eastward along the Gulf coast. Very large hail is possible over TX today. For more information see mesoscale discussion 259. ..Jewell.. 03/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/ ...Edwards Plateau region into South Texas... As a short-wave trough continues shifting eastward away from the region/across East Texas/Arkansas/Louisiana, weak subsidence should suppress convective development into early afternoon. However, strong heating of the moist boundary layer near and south of the front, combined with steep lapse rates aloft, will provide a very favorable thermodynamic environment (mixed-layer cape in excess of 2500 to 3000 J/kg). Despite the weak forcing aloft, low-level ascent near and just north of the surface front, and near upslope-favored areas just west of the Rio Grande, should result in at least isolated storm development this afternoon, with any storms rapidly becoming supercells. While low-level veering is sufficient to support low-probability risk for a tornado, very large hail -- in excess of baseball size -- will be the primary severe risk. Locally damaging winds will also be possible -- particularly if storms can cluster together and spread southeastward toward south Texas later this afternoon and evening. ...Southeastern Texas eastward to the Southeast... Thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from Louisiana eastward across Georgia and South Carolina, in the vicinity of the sagging surface cold front. Near and south of the boundary, broken cloud cover is allowing for some heating, which -- combined with the moist boundary layer and sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates -- has pushed mixed-layer CAPE values into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range from the Texas Coastal Plain eastward to southwestern Alabama. Flow just off the surface is veered/southwesterly across this region, resulting in a unidirectional deep-layer wind field across this area. While this should largely limit overall tornado potential, the increasing flow with height is providing favorable directional shear for organized storms, and attendant risks for damaging winds and hail. Expect storms to increase in coverage through late morning/early afternoon, with an attendant/expanding severe threat to follow. Risk will sag southeastward with time, possibly lingering into early evening before diurnally decreasing/shifting offshore. Farther west, across southeastern Texas and the Coastal Plain, broken clouds are allowing ample heating/destabilization to occur. CAMs continue to forecast a separate cluster of storms developing across this region near the sagging front, which seems reasonable in tandem with the short-wave trough presently moving eastward across this area. With deep-layer shear plenty sufficient for organized/rotating storms, locally damaging winds and large hail are expected. This convection should spread eastward across southeastern Texas this afternoon and evening, and possibly into southwestern Louisiana before weakening overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with very large hail and isolated damaging winds are expected through this afternoon and overnight from the Edwards Plateau into south-central Texas. Additionally, damaging winds and hail will be possible extending eastward from south-central Texas across the central Gulf Coast region. Little change was needed at 20Z to the existing outlook. An elongated area of severe risk persists from TX eastward along the Gulf coast. Very large hail is possible over TX today. For more information see mesoscale discussion 259. ..Jewell.. 03/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/ ...Edwards Plateau region into South Texas... As a short-wave trough continues shifting eastward away from the region/across East Texas/Arkansas/Louisiana, weak subsidence should suppress convective development into early afternoon. However, strong heating of the moist boundary layer near and south of the front, combined with steep lapse rates aloft, will provide a very favorable thermodynamic environment (mixed-layer cape in excess of 2500 to 3000 J/kg). Despite the weak forcing aloft, low-level ascent near and just north of the surface front, and near upslope-favored areas just west of the Rio Grande, should result in at least isolated storm development this afternoon, with any storms rapidly becoming supercells. While low-level veering is sufficient to support low-probability risk for a tornado, very large hail -- in excess of baseball size -- will be the primary severe risk. Locally damaging winds will also be possible -- particularly if storms can cluster together and spread southeastward toward south Texas later this afternoon and evening. ...Southeastern Texas eastward to the Southeast... Thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from Louisiana eastward across Georgia and South Carolina, in the vicinity of the sagging surface cold front. Near and south of the boundary, broken cloud cover is allowing for some heating, which -- combined with the moist boundary layer and sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates -- has pushed mixed-layer CAPE values into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range from the Texas Coastal Plain eastward to southwestern Alabama. Flow just off the surface is veered/southwesterly across this region, resulting in a unidirectional deep-layer wind field across this area. While this should largely limit overall tornado potential, the increasing flow with height is providing favorable directional shear for organized storms, and attendant risks for damaging winds and hail. Expect storms to increase in coverage through late morning/early afternoon, with an attendant/expanding severe threat to follow. Risk will sag southeastward with time, possibly lingering into early evening before diurnally decreasing/shifting offshore. Farther west, across southeastern Texas and the Coastal Plain, broken clouds are allowing ample heating/destabilization to occur. CAMs continue to forecast a separate cluster of storms developing across this region near the sagging front, which seems reasonable in tandem with the short-wave trough presently moving eastward across this area. With deep-layer shear plenty sufficient for organized/rotating storms, locally damaging winds and large hail are expected. This convection should spread eastward across southeastern Texas this afternoon and evening, and possibly into southwestern Louisiana before weakening overnight. Read more