Severe Storms

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. Saturday or Saturday night. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move across the eastern U.S. on Saturday, as an upper-level ridge moves into the Great Plains. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will remain over the central and eastern U.S. This will keep dry in air in place across the continental U.S. making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorm development Saturday and Saturday night. ..Broyles.. 01/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. Saturday or Saturday night. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move across the eastern U.S. on Saturday, as an upper-level ridge moves into the Great Plains. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will remain over the central and eastern U.S. This will keep dry in air in place across the continental U.S. making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorm development Saturday and Saturday night. ..Broyles.. 01/19/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build in across the CONUS by Saturday. Under this regime, primarily light winds will remain keeping fire weather concerns low. ..Thornton.. 01/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build in across the CONUS by Saturday. Under this regime, primarily light winds will remain keeping fire weather concerns low. ..Thornton.. 01/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build in across the CONUS by Saturday. Under this regime, primarily light winds will remain keeping fire weather concerns low. ..Thornton.. 01/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build in across the CONUS by Saturday. Under this regime, primarily light winds will remain keeping fire weather concerns low. ..Thornton.. 01/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build in across the CONUS by Saturday. Under this regime, primarily light winds will remain keeping fire weather concerns low. ..Thornton.. 01/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... High pressure will build today across the northern Rockies as an upper-level low brings rain and snow chances across the Pacific Northwest. Across the central/eastern US, a cool post-frontal air mass will be in place under building surface high pressure. Given the cool and moist conditions, fire weather concerns will remain low across the CONUS today. ..Thornton.. 01/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... High pressure will build today across the northern Rockies as an upper-level low brings rain and snow chances across the Pacific Northwest. Across the central/eastern US, a cool post-frontal air mass will be in place under building surface high pressure. Given the cool and moist conditions, fire weather concerns will remain low across the CONUS today. ..Thornton.. 01/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... High pressure will build today across the northern Rockies as an upper-level low brings rain and snow chances across the Pacific Northwest. Across the central/eastern US, a cool post-frontal air mass will be in place under building surface high pressure. Given the cool and moist conditions, fire weather concerns will remain low across the CONUS today. ..Thornton.. 01/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... High pressure will build today across the northern Rockies as an upper-level low brings rain and snow chances across the Pacific Northwest. Across the central/eastern US, a cool post-frontal air mass will be in place under building surface high pressure. Given the cool and moist conditions, fire weather concerns will remain low across the CONUS today. ..Thornton.. 01/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... High pressure will build today across the northern Rockies as an upper-level low brings rain and snow chances across the Pacific Northwest. Across the central/eastern US, a cool post-frontal air mass will be in place under building surface high pressure. Given the cool and moist conditions, fire weather concerns will remain low across the CONUS today. ..Thornton.. 01/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may be noted across parts of south Florida and along the central California Coast. ...South Florida... Dominant upper trough, currently located over the Great Lakes/OH Valley, will gradually shift east as strongest 500mb flow rounds the base of the trough and off the middle Atlantic Coast during the latter half of the period. This evolution will encourage westerly flow to deepen across the FL Peninsula and a pronounced surface front will surge across the southern Peninsula during the evening. Weak buoyancy currently resides across the warm sector over the southern Peninsula. Forecast soundings suggest some risk for deep updrafts, although lapse rates will remain weak. Isolated thunderstorms may develop ahead of the primary cold front during the afternoon but this activity should remain too weak to warrant any meaningful risk for severe. ...California... Surface front is expected to surge toward the central/northern CA Coast after 20/00z ahead of a midlevel trough that should approach the Coast by 12z. Pronounced warm advection and weak elevated buoyancy will likely prove sufficient for pre frontal convection. Most of this activity is expected within the warm conveyor (likely rooted near/above 1km AGL) during the latter half of the period. Forecast soundings suggest the strongest updrafts may attain levels necessary for lightning discharge. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may be noted across parts of south Florida and along the central California Coast. ...South Florida... Dominant upper trough, currently located over the Great Lakes/OH Valley, will gradually shift east as strongest 500mb flow rounds the base of the trough and off the middle Atlantic Coast during the latter half of the period. This evolution will encourage westerly flow to deepen across the FL Peninsula and a pronounced surface front will surge across the southern Peninsula during the evening. Weak buoyancy currently resides across the warm sector over the southern Peninsula. Forecast soundings suggest some risk for deep updrafts, although lapse rates will remain weak. Isolated thunderstorms may develop ahead of the primary cold front during the afternoon but this activity should remain too weak to warrant any meaningful risk for severe. ...California... Surface front is expected to surge toward the central/northern CA Coast after 20/00z ahead of a midlevel trough that should approach the Coast by 12z. Pronounced warm advection and weak elevated buoyancy will likely prove sufficient for pre frontal convection. Most of this activity is expected within the warm conveyor (likely rooted near/above 1km AGL) during the latter half of the period. Forecast soundings suggest the strongest updrafts may attain levels necessary for lightning discharge. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may be noted across parts of south Florida and along the central California Coast. ...South Florida... Dominant upper trough, currently located over the Great Lakes/OH Valley, will gradually shift east as strongest 500mb flow rounds the base of the trough and off the middle Atlantic Coast during the latter half of the period. This evolution will encourage westerly flow to deepen across the FL Peninsula and a pronounced surface front will surge across the southern Peninsula during the evening. Weak buoyancy currently resides across the warm sector over the southern Peninsula. Forecast soundings suggest some risk for deep updrafts, although lapse rates will remain weak. Isolated thunderstorms may develop ahead of the primary cold front during the afternoon but this activity should remain too weak to warrant any meaningful risk for severe. ...California... Surface front is expected to surge toward the central/northern CA Coast after 20/00z ahead of a midlevel trough that should approach the Coast by 12z. Pronounced warm advection and weak elevated buoyancy will likely prove sufficient for pre frontal convection. Most of this activity is expected within the warm conveyor (likely rooted near/above 1km AGL) during the latter half of the period. Forecast soundings suggest the strongest updrafts may attain levels necessary for lightning discharge. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may be noted across parts of south Florida and along the central California Coast. ...South Florida... Dominant upper trough, currently located over the Great Lakes/OH Valley, will gradually shift east as strongest 500mb flow rounds the base of the trough and off the middle Atlantic Coast during the latter half of the period. This evolution will encourage westerly flow to deepen across the FL Peninsula and a pronounced surface front will surge across the southern Peninsula during the evening. Weak buoyancy currently resides across the warm sector over the southern Peninsula. Forecast soundings suggest some risk for deep updrafts, although lapse rates will remain weak. Isolated thunderstorms may develop ahead of the primary cold front during the afternoon but this activity should remain too weak to warrant any meaningful risk for severe. ...California... Surface front is expected to surge toward the central/northern CA Coast after 20/00z ahead of a midlevel trough that should approach the Coast by 12z. Pronounced warm advection and weak elevated buoyancy will likely prove sufficient for pre frontal convection. Most of this activity is expected within the warm conveyor (likely rooted near/above 1km AGL) during the latter half of the period. Forecast soundings suggest the strongest updrafts may attain levels necessary for lightning discharge. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may be noted across parts of south Florida and along the central California Coast. ...South Florida... Dominant upper trough, currently located over the Great Lakes/OH Valley, will gradually shift east as strongest 500mb flow rounds the base of the trough and off the middle Atlantic Coast during the latter half of the period. This evolution will encourage westerly flow to deepen across the FL Peninsula and a pronounced surface front will surge across the southern Peninsula during the evening. Weak buoyancy currently resides across the warm sector over the southern Peninsula. Forecast soundings suggest some risk for deep updrafts, although lapse rates will remain weak. Isolated thunderstorms may develop ahead of the primary cold front during the afternoon but this activity should remain too weak to warrant any meaningful risk for severe. ...California... Surface front is expected to surge toward the central/northern CA Coast after 20/00z ahead of a midlevel trough that should approach the Coast by 12z. Pronounced warm advection and weak elevated buoyancy will likely prove sufficient for pre frontal convection. Most of this activity is expected within the warm conveyor (likely rooted near/above 1km AGL) during the latter half of the period. Forecast soundings suggest the strongest updrafts may attain levels necessary for lightning discharge. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0625 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may develop across parts of south Florida this evening. ...South FL... Weak surface boundary is currently draped across south FL and appears to be partly responsible for weak convection that is noted across eastern Collier/western Broward/southern Palm Beach County region. 00z sounding from MFL exhibits MLCAPE on the order of 800 J/kg which is likely adequate for updrafts potentially attaining heights necessary for lightning discharge. However, lightning is not currently noted with these showers and the deepest updrafts (with lightning) are roughly 275 mi east of the southern Peninsula. Will maintain 10% probability for lightning with this activity given the weak boundary-layer convergence and modest thermodynamic profile observed at MFL. ..Darrow.. 01/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0625 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may develop across parts of south Florida this evening. ...South FL... Weak surface boundary is currently draped across south FL and appears to be partly responsible for weak convection that is noted across eastern Collier/western Broward/southern Palm Beach County region. 00z sounding from MFL exhibits MLCAPE on the order of 800 J/kg which is likely adequate for updrafts potentially attaining heights necessary for lightning discharge. However, lightning is not currently noted with these showers and the deepest updrafts (with lightning) are roughly 275 mi east of the southern Peninsula. Will maintain 10% probability for lightning with this activity given the weak boundary-layer convergence and modest thermodynamic profile observed at MFL. ..Darrow.. 01/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0625 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may develop across parts of south Florida this evening. ...South FL... Weak surface boundary is currently draped across south FL and appears to be partly responsible for weak convection that is noted across eastern Collier/western Broward/southern Palm Beach County region. 00z sounding from MFL exhibits MLCAPE on the order of 800 J/kg which is likely adequate for updrafts potentially attaining heights necessary for lightning discharge. However, lightning is not currently noted with these showers and the deepest updrafts (with lightning) are roughly 275 mi east of the southern Peninsula. Will maintain 10% probability for lightning with this activity given the weak boundary-layer convergence and modest thermodynamic profile observed at MFL. ..Darrow.. 01/19/2024 Read more