Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are forecast across portions of south central and southeastern Texas Saturday through Saturday night. Damaging hail and wind may occur. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, an upper low will fill as it moves slowly from the lower CO Valley across AZ, with some increase in mid and high level southwesterlies from Mexico into the southern Plains. Gradual height falls will also occur across that region, primarily overnight. Meanwhile, a large upper trough will dive south across the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, while farther south, moderate westerly flow aloft persist across the Southeast. At the surface, high pressure will stretch from the TX Panhandle into the northern Gulf of Mexico, with a weak trough into southern TX. Here, a slow-moving wind shift is expected to provide a focus for rain and storms, as southerly winds maintain a moist and unstable air mass. ...Texas... Scattered storms are likely to be ongoing early Saturday over much of western through north central TX, north of the surface front. Lift and moisture advection atop the surface cool layer will be aided by southerly 850 mb winds of 20-30 kt. Elevated CAPE of several hundred J/kg, and perhaps up to 1000 J/kg will exist, with SBCAPE to the south rising to over 2000 J/kg. Activity near or just north of the boundary could pose some marginal hail risk, and perhaps even strong gusts given the robust model signal and ample instability. However, a greater risk of both hail and wind will be along and just south of the front as an uncapped air mass and minimal heating yield warm-sector development by midday. Bouts of storms are expected, first over central into southeast TX and eventually into southwest LA, then from late evening into the overnight from the Rio Grande Valley into south-central TX. Conditional on storm mode, isolated significant hail will be possible as lapse rates aloft remain steep, and deep layer shear increases with the approach of the aforementioned upper low to the west. Locally damaging wind is also expected, especially as storms merge overnight. ..Jewell.. 03/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are forecast across portions of south central and southeastern Texas Saturday through Saturday night. Damaging hail and wind may occur. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, an upper low will fill as it moves slowly from the lower CO Valley across AZ, with some increase in mid and high level southwesterlies from Mexico into the southern Plains. Gradual height falls will also occur across that region, primarily overnight. Meanwhile, a large upper trough will dive south across the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, while farther south, moderate westerly flow aloft persist across the Southeast. At the surface, high pressure will stretch from the TX Panhandle into the northern Gulf of Mexico, with a weak trough into southern TX. Here, a slow-moving wind shift is expected to provide a focus for rain and storms, as southerly winds maintain a moist and unstable air mass. ...Texas... Scattered storms are likely to be ongoing early Saturday over much of western through north central TX, north of the surface front. Lift and moisture advection atop the surface cool layer will be aided by southerly 850 mb winds of 20-30 kt. Elevated CAPE of several hundred J/kg, and perhaps up to 1000 J/kg will exist, with SBCAPE to the south rising to over 2000 J/kg. Activity near or just north of the boundary could pose some marginal hail risk, and perhaps even strong gusts given the robust model signal and ample instability. However, a greater risk of both hail and wind will be along and just south of the front as an uncapped air mass and minimal heating yield warm-sector development by midday. Bouts of storms are expected, first over central into southeast TX and eventually into southwest LA, then from late evening into the overnight from the Rio Grande Valley into south-central TX. Conditional on storm mode, isolated significant hail will be possible as lapse rates aloft remain steep, and deep layer shear increases with the approach of the aforementioned upper low to the west. Locally damaging wind is also expected, especially as storms merge overnight. ..Jewell.. 03/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are forecast across portions of south central and southeastern Texas Saturday through Saturday night. Damaging hail and wind may occur. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, an upper low will fill as it moves slowly from the lower CO Valley across AZ, with some increase in mid and high level southwesterlies from Mexico into the southern Plains. Gradual height falls will also occur across that region, primarily overnight. Meanwhile, a large upper trough will dive south across the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, while farther south, moderate westerly flow aloft persist across the Southeast. At the surface, high pressure will stretch from the TX Panhandle into the northern Gulf of Mexico, with a weak trough into southern TX. Here, a slow-moving wind shift is expected to provide a focus for rain and storms, as southerly winds maintain a moist and unstable air mass. ...Texas... Scattered storms are likely to be ongoing early Saturday over much of western through north central TX, north of the surface front. Lift and moisture advection atop the surface cool layer will be aided by southerly 850 mb winds of 20-30 kt. Elevated CAPE of several hundred J/kg, and perhaps up to 1000 J/kg will exist, with SBCAPE to the south rising to over 2000 J/kg. Activity near or just north of the boundary could pose some marginal hail risk, and perhaps even strong gusts given the robust model signal and ample instability. However, a greater risk of both hail and wind will be along and just south of the front as an uncapped air mass and minimal heating yield warm-sector development by midday. Bouts of storms are expected, first over central into southeast TX and eventually into southwest LA, then from late evening into the overnight from the Rio Grande Valley into south-central TX. Conditional on storm mode, isolated significant hail will be possible as lapse rates aloft remain steep, and deep layer shear increases with the approach of the aforementioned upper low to the west. Locally damaging wind is also expected, especially as storms merge overnight. ..Jewell.. 03/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are forecast across portions of south central and southeastern Texas Saturday through Saturday night. Damaging hail and wind may occur. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, an upper low will fill as it moves slowly from the lower CO Valley across AZ, with some increase in mid and high level southwesterlies from Mexico into the southern Plains. Gradual height falls will also occur across that region, primarily overnight. Meanwhile, a large upper trough will dive south across the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, while farther south, moderate westerly flow aloft persist across the Southeast. At the surface, high pressure will stretch from the TX Panhandle into the northern Gulf of Mexico, with a weak trough into southern TX. Here, a slow-moving wind shift is expected to provide a focus for rain and storms, as southerly winds maintain a moist and unstable air mass. ...Texas... Scattered storms are likely to be ongoing early Saturday over much of western through north central TX, north of the surface front. Lift and moisture advection atop the surface cool layer will be aided by southerly 850 mb winds of 20-30 kt. Elevated CAPE of several hundred J/kg, and perhaps up to 1000 J/kg will exist, with SBCAPE to the south rising to over 2000 J/kg. Activity near or just north of the boundary could pose some marginal hail risk, and perhaps even strong gusts given the robust model signal and ample instability. However, a greater risk of both hail and wind will be along and just south of the front as an uncapped air mass and minimal heating yield warm-sector development by midday. Bouts of storms are expected, first over central into southeast TX and eventually into southwest LA, then from late evening into the overnight from the Rio Grande Valley into south-central TX. Conditional on storm mode, isolated significant hail will be possible as lapse rates aloft remain steep, and deep layer shear increases with the approach of the aforementioned upper low to the west. Locally damaging wind is also expected, especially as storms merge overnight. ..Jewell.. 03/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are forecast across portions of south central and southeastern Texas Saturday through Saturday night. Damaging hail and wind may occur. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, an upper low will fill as it moves slowly from the lower CO Valley across AZ, with some increase in mid and high level southwesterlies from Mexico into the southern Plains. Gradual height falls will also occur across that region, primarily overnight. Meanwhile, a large upper trough will dive south across the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, while farther south, moderate westerly flow aloft persist across the Southeast. At the surface, high pressure will stretch from the TX Panhandle into the northern Gulf of Mexico, with a weak trough into southern TX. Here, a slow-moving wind shift is expected to provide a focus for rain and storms, as southerly winds maintain a moist and unstable air mass. ...Texas... Scattered storms are likely to be ongoing early Saturday over much of western through north central TX, north of the surface front. Lift and moisture advection atop the surface cool layer will be aided by southerly 850 mb winds of 20-30 kt. Elevated CAPE of several hundred J/kg, and perhaps up to 1000 J/kg will exist, with SBCAPE to the south rising to over 2000 J/kg. Activity near or just north of the boundary could pose some marginal hail risk, and perhaps even strong gusts given the robust model signal and ample instability. However, a greater risk of both hail and wind will be along and just south of the front as an uncapped air mass and minimal heating yield warm-sector development by midday. Bouts of storms are expected, first over central into southeast TX and eventually into southwest LA, then from late evening into the overnight from the Rio Grande Valley into south-central TX. Conditional on storm mode, isolated significant hail will be possible as lapse rates aloft remain steep, and deep layer shear increases with the approach of the aforementioned upper low to the west. Locally damaging wind is also expected, especially as storms merge overnight. ..Jewell.. 03/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are forecast across portions of south central and southeastern Texas Saturday through Saturday night. Damaging hail and wind may occur. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, an upper low will fill as it moves slowly from the lower CO Valley across AZ, with some increase in mid and high level southwesterlies from Mexico into the southern Plains. Gradual height falls will also occur across that region, primarily overnight. Meanwhile, a large upper trough will dive south across the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, while farther south, moderate westerly flow aloft persist across the Southeast. At the surface, high pressure will stretch from the TX Panhandle into the northern Gulf of Mexico, with a weak trough into southern TX. Here, a slow-moving wind shift is expected to provide a focus for rain and storms, as southerly winds maintain a moist and unstable air mass. ...Texas... Scattered storms are likely to be ongoing early Saturday over much of western through north central TX, north of the surface front. Lift and moisture advection atop the surface cool layer will be aided by southerly 850 mb winds of 20-30 kt. Elevated CAPE of several hundred J/kg, and perhaps up to 1000 J/kg will exist, with SBCAPE to the south rising to over 2000 J/kg. Activity near or just north of the boundary could pose some marginal hail risk, and perhaps even strong gusts given the robust model signal and ample instability. However, a greater risk of both hail and wind will be along and just south of the front as an uncapped air mass and minimal heating yield warm-sector development by midday. Bouts of storms are expected, first over central into southeast TX and eventually into southwest LA, then from late evening into the overnight from the Rio Grande Valley into south-central TX. Conditional on storm mode, isolated significant hail will be possible as lapse rates aloft remain steep, and deep layer shear increases with the approach of the aforementioned upper low to the west. Locally damaging wind is also expected, especially as storms merge overnight. ..Jewell.. 03/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are forecast across portions of south central and southeastern Texas Saturday through Saturday night. Damaging hail and wind may occur. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, an upper low will fill as it moves slowly from the lower CO Valley across AZ, with some increase in mid and high level southwesterlies from Mexico into the southern Plains. Gradual height falls will also occur across that region, primarily overnight. Meanwhile, a large upper trough will dive south across the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, while farther south, moderate westerly flow aloft persist across the Southeast. At the surface, high pressure will stretch from the TX Panhandle into the northern Gulf of Mexico, with a weak trough into southern TX. Here, a slow-moving wind shift is expected to provide a focus for rain and storms, as southerly winds maintain a moist and unstable air mass. ...Texas... Scattered storms are likely to be ongoing early Saturday over much of western through north central TX, north of the surface front. Lift and moisture advection atop the surface cool layer will be aided by southerly 850 mb winds of 20-30 kt. Elevated CAPE of several hundred J/kg, and perhaps up to 1000 J/kg will exist, with SBCAPE to the south rising to over 2000 J/kg. Activity near or just north of the boundary could pose some marginal hail risk, and perhaps even strong gusts given the robust model signal and ample instability. However, a greater risk of both hail and wind will be along and just south of the front as an uncapped air mass and minimal heating yield warm-sector development by midday. Bouts of storms are expected, first over central into southeast TX and eventually into southwest LA, then from late evening into the overnight from the Rio Grande Valley into south-central TX. Conditional on storm mode, isolated significant hail will be possible as lapse rates aloft remain steep, and deep layer shear increases with the approach of the aforementioned upper low to the west. Locally damaging wind is also expected, especially as storms merge overnight. ..Jewell.. 03/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are forecast across portions of south central and southeastern Texas Saturday through Saturday night. Damaging hail and wind may occur. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, an upper low will fill as it moves slowly from the lower CO Valley across AZ, with some increase in mid and high level southwesterlies from Mexico into the southern Plains. Gradual height falls will also occur across that region, primarily overnight. Meanwhile, a large upper trough will dive south across the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, while farther south, moderate westerly flow aloft persist across the Southeast. At the surface, high pressure will stretch from the TX Panhandle into the northern Gulf of Mexico, with a weak trough into southern TX. Here, a slow-moving wind shift is expected to provide a focus for rain and storms, as southerly winds maintain a moist and unstable air mass. ...Texas... Scattered storms are likely to be ongoing early Saturday over much of western through north central TX, north of the surface front. Lift and moisture advection atop the surface cool layer will be aided by southerly 850 mb winds of 20-30 kt. Elevated CAPE of several hundred J/kg, and perhaps up to 1000 J/kg will exist, with SBCAPE to the south rising to over 2000 J/kg. Activity near or just north of the boundary could pose some marginal hail risk, and perhaps even strong gusts given the robust model signal and ample instability. However, a greater risk of both hail and wind will be along and just south of the front as an uncapped air mass and minimal heating yield warm-sector development by midday. Bouts of storms are expected, first over central into southeast TX and eventually into southwest LA, then from late evening into the overnight from the Rio Grande Valley into south-central TX. Conditional on storm mode, isolated significant hail will be possible as lapse rates aloft remain steep, and deep layer shear increases with the approach of the aforementioned upper low to the west. Locally damaging wind is also expected, especially as storms merge overnight. ..Jewell.. 03/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are forecast across portions of south central and southeastern Texas Saturday through Saturday night. Damaging hail and wind may occur. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, an upper low will fill as it moves slowly from the lower CO Valley across AZ, with some increase in mid and high level southwesterlies from Mexico into the southern Plains. Gradual height falls will also occur across that region, primarily overnight. Meanwhile, a large upper trough will dive south across the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, while farther south, moderate westerly flow aloft persist across the Southeast. At the surface, high pressure will stretch from the TX Panhandle into the northern Gulf of Mexico, with a weak trough into southern TX. Here, a slow-moving wind shift is expected to provide a focus for rain and storms, as southerly winds maintain a moist and unstable air mass. ...Texas... Scattered storms are likely to be ongoing early Saturday over much of western through north central TX, north of the surface front. Lift and moisture advection atop the surface cool layer will be aided by southerly 850 mb winds of 20-30 kt. Elevated CAPE of several hundred J/kg, and perhaps up to 1000 J/kg will exist, with SBCAPE to the south rising to over 2000 J/kg. Activity near or just north of the boundary could pose some marginal hail risk, and perhaps even strong gusts given the robust model signal and ample instability. However, a greater risk of both hail and wind will be along and just south of the front as an uncapped air mass and minimal heating yield warm-sector development by midday. Bouts of storms are expected, first over central into southeast TX and eventually into southwest LA, then from late evening into the overnight from the Rio Grande Valley into south-central TX. Conditional on storm mode, isolated significant hail will be possible as lapse rates aloft remain steep, and deep layer shear increases with the approach of the aforementioned upper low to the west. Locally damaging wind is also expected, especially as storms merge overnight. ..Jewell.. 03/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are forecast across portions of south central and southeastern Texas Saturday through Saturday night. Damaging hail and wind may occur. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, an upper low will fill as it moves slowly from the lower CO Valley across AZ, with some increase in mid and high level southwesterlies from Mexico into the southern Plains. Gradual height falls will also occur across that region, primarily overnight. Meanwhile, a large upper trough will dive south across the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, while farther south, moderate westerly flow aloft persist across the Southeast. At the surface, high pressure will stretch from the TX Panhandle into the northern Gulf of Mexico, with a weak trough into southern TX. Here, a slow-moving wind shift is expected to provide a focus for rain and storms, as southerly winds maintain a moist and unstable air mass. ...Texas... Scattered storms are likely to be ongoing early Saturday over much of western through north central TX, north of the surface front. Lift and moisture advection atop the surface cool layer will be aided by southerly 850 mb winds of 20-30 kt. Elevated CAPE of several hundred J/kg, and perhaps up to 1000 J/kg will exist, with SBCAPE to the south rising to over 2000 J/kg. Activity near or just north of the boundary could pose some marginal hail risk, and perhaps even strong gusts given the robust model signal and ample instability. However, a greater risk of both hail and wind will be along and just south of the front as an uncapped air mass and minimal heating yield warm-sector development by midday. Bouts of storms are expected, first over central into southeast TX and eventually into southwest LA, then from late evening into the overnight from the Rio Grande Valley into south-central TX. Conditional on storm mode, isolated significant hail will be possible as lapse rates aloft remain steep, and deep layer shear increases with the approach of the aforementioned upper low to the west. Locally damaging wind is also expected, especially as storms merge overnight. ..Jewell.. 03/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are forecast across portions of south central and southeastern Texas Saturday through Saturday night. Damaging hail and wind may occur. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, an upper low will fill as it moves slowly from the lower CO Valley across AZ, with some increase in mid and high level southwesterlies from Mexico into the southern Plains. Gradual height falls will also occur across that region, primarily overnight. Meanwhile, a large upper trough will dive south across the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, while farther south, moderate westerly flow aloft persist across the Southeast. At the surface, high pressure will stretch from the TX Panhandle into the northern Gulf of Mexico, with a weak trough into southern TX. Here, a slow-moving wind shift is expected to provide a focus for rain and storms, as southerly winds maintain a moist and unstable air mass. ...Texas... Scattered storms are likely to be ongoing early Saturday over much of western through north central TX, north of the surface front. Lift and moisture advection atop the surface cool layer will be aided by southerly 850 mb winds of 20-30 kt. Elevated CAPE of several hundred J/kg, and perhaps up to 1000 J/kg will exist, with SBCAPE to the south rising to over 2000 J/kg. Activity near or just north of the boundary could pose some marginal hail risk, and perhaps even strong gusts given the robust model signal and ample instability. However, a greater risk of both hail and wind will be along and just south of the front as an uncapped air mass and minimal heating yield warm-sector development by midday. Bouts of storms are expected, first over central into southeast TX and eventually into southwest LA, then from late evening into the overnight from the Rio Grande Valley into south-central TX. Conditional on storm mode, isolated significant hail will be possible as lapse rates aloft remain steep, and deep layer shear increases with the approach of the aforementioned upper low to the west. Locally damaging wind is also expected, especially as storms merge overnight. ..Jewell.. 03/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are forecast across portions of south central and southeastern Texas Saturday through Saturday night. Damaging hail and wind may occur. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, an upper low will fill as it moves slowly from the lower CO Valley across AZ, with some increase in mid and high level southwesterlies from Mexico into the southern Plains. Gradual height falls will also occur across that region, primarily overnight. Meanwhile, a large upper trough will dive south across the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, while farther south, moderate westerly flow aloft persist across the Southeast. At the surface, high pressure will stretch from the TX Panhandle into the northern Gulf of Mexico, with a weak trough into southern TX. Here, a slow-moving wind shift is expected to provide a focus for rain and storms, as southerly winds maintain a moist and unstable air mass. ...Texas... Scattered storms are likely to be ongoing early Saturday over much of western through north central TX, north of the surface front. Lift and moisture advection atop the surface cool layer will be aided by southerly 850 mb winds of 20-30 kt. Elevated CAPE of several hundred J/kg, and perhaps up to 1000 J/kg will exist, with SBCAPE to the south rising to over 2000 J/kg. Activity near or just north of the boundary could pose some marginal hail risk, and perhaps even strong gusts given the robust model signal and ample instability. However, a greater risk of both hail and wind will be along and just south of the front as an uncapped air mass and minimal heating yield warm-sector development by midday. Bouts of storms are expected, first over central into southeast TX and eventually into southwest LA, then from late evening into the overnight from the Rio Grande Valley into south-central TX. Conditional on storm mode, isolated significant hail will be possible as lapse rates aloft remain steep, and deep layer shear increases with the approach of the aforementioned upper low to the west. Locally damaging wind is also expected, especially as storms merge overnight. ..Jewell.. 03/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are forecast across portions of south central and southeastern Texas Saturday through Saturday night. Damaging hail and wind may occur. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, an upper low will fill as it moves slowly from the lower CO Valley across AZ, with some increase in mid and high level southwesterlies from Mexico into the southern Plains. Gradual height falls will also occur across that region, primarily overnight. Meanwhile, a large upper trough will dive south across the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, while farther south, moderate westerly flow aloft persist across the Southeast. At the surface, high pressure will stretch from the TX Panhandle into the northern Gulf of Mexico, with a weak trough into southern TX. Here, a slow-moving wind shift is expected to provide a focus for rain and storms, as southerly winds maintain a moist and unstable air mass. ...Texas... Scattered storms are likely to be ongoing early Saturday over much of western through north central TX, north of the surface front. Lift and moisture advection atop the surface cool layer will be aided by southerly 850 mb winds of 20-30 kt. Elevated CAPE of several hundred J/kg, and perhaps up to 1000 J/kg will exist, with SBCAPE to the south rising to over 2000 J/kg. Activity near or just north of the boundary could pose some marginal hail risk, and perhaps even strong gusts given the robust model signal and ample instability. However, a greater risk of both hail and wind will be along and just south of the front as an uncapped air mass and minimal heating yield warm-sector development by midday. Bouts of storms are expected, first over central into southeast TX and eventually into southwest LA, then from late evening into the overnight from the Rio Grande Valley into south-central TX. Conditional on storm mode, isolated significant hail will be possible as lapse rates aloft remain steep, and deep layer shear increases with the approach of the aforementioned upper low to the west. Locally damaging wind is also expected, especially as storms merge overnight. ..Jewell.. 03/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are forecast across portions of south central and southeastern Texas Saturday through Saturday night. Damaging hail and wind may occur. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, an upper low will fill as it moves slowly from the lower CO Valley across AZ, with some increase in mid and high level southwesterlies from Mexico into the southern Plains. Gradual height falls will also occur across that region, primarily overnight. Meanwhile, a large upper trough will dive south across the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, while farther south, moderate westerly flow aloft persist across the Southeast. At the surface, high pressure will stretch from the TX Panhandle into the northern Gulf of Mexico, with a weak trough into southern TX. Here, a slow-moving wind shift is expected to provide a focus for rain and storms, as southerly winds maintain a moist and unstable air mass. ...Texas... Scattered storms are likely to be ongoing early Saturday over much of western through north central TX, north of the surface front. Lift and moisture advection atop the surface cool layer will be aided by southerly 850 mb winds of 20-30 kt. Elevated CAPE of several hundred J/kg, and perhaps up to 1000 J/kg will exist, with SBCAPE to the south rising to over 2000 J/kg. Activity near or just north of the boundary could pose some marginal hail risk, and perhaps even strong gusts given the robust model signal and ample instability. However, a greater risk of both hail and wind will be along and just south of the front as an uncapped air mass and minimal heating yield warm-sector development by midday. Bouts of storms are expected, first over central into southeast TX and eventually into southwest LA, then from late evening into the overnight from the Rio Grande Valley into south-central TX. Conditional on storm mode, isolated significant hail will be possible as lapse rates aloft remain steep, and deep layer shear increases with the approach of the aforementioned upper low to the west. Locally damaging wind is also expected, especially as storms merge overnight. ..Jewell.. 03/15/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed for the ongoing forecast. Latest forecast guidance continues to show the potential for localized elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the central Plains - namely from western SD into central NE. While sustained winds between 15-25 mph appear likely, ensemble consensus shows RH minimums should remain near 25-30% for most areas. A few locations may see deeper mixing resulting in RH values near 20% and a corresponding uptick in fire weather potential. However, limited confidence in the coverage and duration of 20-25% RH with sustained winds near 20 mph precludes introducing highlights for this update (though trends will continue to be monitored). ..Moore.. 03/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1224 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad and strong cyclonic flow is expected to remain within the Great Lakes region on Saturday. A cold front will move through parts of the northern/central Plains early in the day. Breezy post-frontal conditions are likely over those same areas. Temperatures will be slightly cooler than on Friday. Once again, cloud cover will be possible, making RH reductions uncertain. Areas of locally elevated fire weather are possible in South Dakota and Nebraska. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed for the ongoing forecast. Latest forecast guidance continues to show the potential for localized elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the central Plains - namely from western SD into central NE. While sustained winds between 15-25 mph appear likely, ensemble consensus shows RH minimums should remain near 25-30% for most areas. A few locations may see deeper mixing resulting in RH values near 20% and a corresponding uptick in fire weather potential. However, limited confidence in the coverage and duration of 20-25% RH with sustained winds near 20 mph precludes introducing highlights for this update (though trends will continue to be monitored). ..Moore.. 03/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1224 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad and strong cyclonic flow is expected to remain within the Great Lakes region on Saturday. A cold front will move through parts of the northern/central Plains early in the day. Breezy post-frontal conditions are likely over those same areas. Temperatures will be slightly cooler than on Friday. Once again, cloud cover will be possible, making RH reductions uncertain. Areas of locally elevated fire weather are possible in South Dakota and Nebraska. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed for the ongoing forecast. Latest forecast guidance continues to show the potential for localized elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the central Plains - namely from western SD into central NE. While sustained winds between 15-25 mph appear likely, ensemble consensus shows RH minimums should remain near 25-30% for most areas. A few locations may see deeper mixing resulting in RH values near 20% and a corresponding uptick in fire weather potential. However, limited confidence in the coverage and duration of 20-25% RH with sustained winds near 20 mph precludes introducing highlights for this update (though trends will continue to be monitored). ..Moore.. 03/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1224 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad and strong cyclonic flow is expected to remain within the Great Lakes region on Saturday. A cold front will move through parts of the northern/central Plains early in the day. Breezy post-frontal conditions are likely over those same areas. Temperatures will be slightly cooler than on Friday. Once again, cloud cover will be possible, making RH reductions uncertain. Areas of locally elevated fire weather are possible in South Dakota and Nebraska. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed for the ongoing forecast. Latest forecast guidance continues to show the potential for localized elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the central Plains - namely from western SD into central NE. While sustained winds between 15-25 mph appear likely, ensemble consensus shows RH minimums should remain near 25-30% for most areas. A few locations may see deeper mixing resulting in RH values near 20% and a corresponding uptick in fire weather potential. However, limited confidence in the coverage and duration of 20-25% RH with sustained winds near 20 mph precludes introducing highlights for this update (though trends will continue to be monitored). ..Moore.. 03/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1224 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad and strong cyclonic flow is expected to remain within the Great Lakes region on Saturday. A cold front will move through parts of the northern/central Plains early in the day. Breezy post-frontal conditions are likely over those same areas. Temperatures will be slightly cooler than on Friday. Once again, cloud cover will be possible, making RH reductions uncertain. Areas of locally elevated fire weather are possible in South Dakota and Nebraska. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed for the ongoing forecast. Latest forecast guidance continues to show the potential for localized elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the central Plains - namely from western SD into central NE. While sustained winds between 15-25 mph appear likely, ensemble consensus shows RH minimums should remain near 25-30% for most areas. A few locations may see deeper mixing resulting in RH values near 20% and a corresponding uptick in fire weather potential. However, limited confidence in the coverage and duration of 20-25% RH with sustained winds near 20 mph precludes introducing highlights for this update (though trends will continue to be monitored). ..Moore.. 03/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1224 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad and strong cyclonic flow is expected to remain within the Great Lakes region on Saturday. A cold front will move through parts of the northern/central Plains early in the day. Breezy post-frontal conditions are likely over those same areas. Temperatures will be slightly cooler than on Friday. Once again, cloud cover will be possible, making RH reductions uncertain. Areas of locally elevated fire weather are possible in South Dakota and Nebraska. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed for the ongoing forecast. Latest forecast guidance continues to show the potential for localized elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the central Plains - namely from western SD into central NE. While sustained winds between 15-25 mph appear likely, ensemble consensus shows RH minimums should remain near 25-30% for most areas. A few locations may see deeper mixing resulting in RH values near 20% and a corresponding uptick in fire weather potential. However, limited confidence in the coverage and duration of 20-25% RH with sustained winds near 20 mph precludes introducing highlights for this update (though trends will continue to be monitored). ..Moore.. 03/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1224 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad and strong cyclonic flow is expected to remain within the Great Lakes region on Saturday. A cold front will move through parts of the northern/central Plains early in the day. Breezy post-frontal conditions are likely over those same areas. Temperatures will be slightly cooler than on Friday. Once again, cloud cover will be possible, making RH reductions uncertain. Areas of locally elevated fire weather are possible in South Dakota and Nebraska. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more