Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced for portions of the Dakotas. Although relatively moist conditions are noted in morning surface observations along the SD/ND border, westerly winds are forecast to increase through the afternoon with ensemble consensus showing high probability for sustained winds between 15-20 mph (gusting to around 25-30 mph). The combination of diurnal heating and westerly downslope flow off the northern High Plains should yield RH reductions into the 20-30% range across northern SD into far southern ND. Spread among guidance regarding afternoon RH minimums persists, but there appears to be sufficient agreement in near-20% RH along the SD/ND border (where fine fuels are fairly dry) to warrant an Elevated fire weather risk area. Elevated conditions may extend further north and east of the risk area, but cloud cover overspreading ND out of southern Canada introduces uncertainty in the RH minimum and max wind forecast. ..Moore.. 03/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1223 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A cutoff low will remain within the lower Colorado River Valley today. Within the northern Plains and parts of the upper Midwest, an upper-level trough will dig southward out of Canada. A surface low will deepen in southern Canada, increasing the surface pressure gradient in the northern Plains. Breezy conditions are likely across the Dakotas. RH may fall to near critical levels, particularly in pars of northern South Dakota. However, there is some uncertainty given the increase in mid/high-level clouds. Furthermore, the strongest surface winds appear probable to be displaced farther north where RH reductions are even less certain. Locally elevated conditions may occur near the North/South Dakota border. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced for portions of the Dakotas. Although relatively moist conditions are noted in morning surface observations along the SD/ND border, westerly winds are forecast to increase through the afternoon with ensemble consensus showing high probability for sustained winds between 15-20 mph (gusting to around 25-30 mph). The combination of diurnal heating and westerly downslope flow off the northern High Plains should yield RH reductions into the 20-30% range across northern SD into far southern ND. Spread among guidance regarding afternoon RH minimums persists, but there appears to be sufficient agreement in near-20% RH along the SD/ND border (where fine fuels are fairly dry) to warrant an Elevated fire weather risk area. Elevated conditions may extend further north and east of the risk area, but cloud cover overspreading ND out of southern Canada introduces uncertainty in the RH minimum and max wind forecast. ..Moore.. 03/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1223 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A cutoff low will remain within the lower Colorado River Valley today. Within the northern Plains and parts of the upper Midwest, an upper-level trough will dig southward out of Canada. A surface low will deepen in southern Canada, increasing the surface pressure gradient in the northern Plains. Breezy conditions are likely across the Dakotas. RH may fall to near critical levels, particularly in pars of northern South Dakota. However, there is some uncertainty given the increase in mid/high-level clouds. Furthermore, the strongest surface winds appear probable to be displaced farther north where RH reductions are even less certain. Locally elevated conditions may occur near the North/South Dakota border. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced for portions of the Dakotas. Although relatively moist conditions are noted in morning surface observations along the SD/ND border, westerly winds are forecast to increase through the afternoon with ensemble consensus showing high probability for sustained winds between 15-20 mph (gusting to around 25-30 mph). The combination of diurnal heating and westerly downslope flow off the northern High Plains should yield RH reductions into the 20-30% range across northern SD into far southern ND. Spread among guidance regarding afternoon RH minimums persists, but there appears to be sufficient agreement in near-20% RH along the SD/ND border (where fine fuels are fairly dry) to warrant an Elevated fire weather risk area. Elevated conditions may extend further north and east of the risk area, but cloud cover overspreading ND out of southern Canada introduces uncertainty in the RH minimum and max wind forecast. ..Moore.. 03/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1223 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A cutoff low will remain within the lower Colorado River Valley today. Within the northern Plains and parts of the upper Midwest, an upper-level trough will dig southward out of Canada. A surface low will deepen in southern Canada, increasing the surface pressure gradient in the northern Plains. Breezy conditions are likely across the Dakotas. RH may fall to near critical levels, particularly in pars of northern South Dakota. However, there is some uncertainty given the increase in mid/high-level clouds. Furthermore, the strongest surface winds appear probable to be displaced farther north where RH reductions are even less certain. Locally elevated conditions may occur near the North/South Dakota border. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced for portions of the Dakotas. Although relatively moist conditions are noted in morning surface observations along the SD/ND border, westerly winds are forecast to increase through the afternoon with ensemble consensus showing high probability for sustained winds between 15-20 mph (gusting to around 25-30 mph). The combination of diurnal heating and westerly downslope flow off the northern High Plains should yield RH reductions into the 20-30% range across northern SD into far southern ND. Spread among guidance regarding afternoon RH minimums persists, but there appears to be sufficient agreement in near-20% RH along the SD/ND border (where fine fuels are fairly dry) to warrant an Elevated fire weather risk area. Elevated conditions may extend further north and east of the risk area, but cloud cover overspreading ND out of southern Canada introduces uncertainty in the RH minimum and max wind forecast. ..Moore.. 03/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1223 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A cutoff low will remain within the lower Colorado River Valley today. Within the northern Plains and parts of the upper Midwest, an upper-level trough will dig southward out of Canada. A surface low will deepen in southern Canada, increasing the surface pressure gradient in the northern Plains. Breezy conditions are likely across the Dakotas. RH may fall to near critical levels, particularly in pars of northern South Dakota. However, there is some uncertainty given the increase in mid/high-level clouds. Furthermore, the strongest surface winds appear probable to be displaced farther north where RH reductions are even less certain. Locally elevated conditions may occur near the North/South Dakota border. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced for portions of the Dakotas. Although relatively moist conditions are noted in morning surface observations along the SD/ND border, westerly winds are forecast to increase through the afternoon with ensemble consensus showing high probability for sustained winds between 15-20 mph (gusting to around 25-30 mph). The combination of diurnal heating and westerly downslope flow off the northern High Plains should yield RH reductions into the 20-30% range across northern SD into far southern ND. Spread among guidance regarding afternoon RH minimums persists, but there appears to be sufficient agreement in near-20% RH along the SD/ND border (where fine fuels are fairly dry) to warrant an Elevated fire weather risk area. Elevated conditions may extend further north and east of the risk area, but cloud cover overspreading ND out of southern Canada introduces uncertainty in the RH minimum and max wind forecast. ..Moore.. 03/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1223 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A cutoff low will remain within the lower Colorado River Valley today. Within the northern Plains and parts of the upper Midwest, an upper-level trough will dig southward out of Canada. A surface low will deepen in southern Canada, increasing the surface pressure gradient in the northern Plains. Breezy conditions are likely across the Dakotas. RH may fall to near critical levels, particularly in pars of northern South Dakota. However, there is some uncertainty given the increase in mid/high-level clouds. Furthermore, the strongest surface winds appear probable to be displaced farther north where RH reductions are even less certain. Locally elevated conditions may occur near the North/South Dakota border. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced for portions of the Dakotas. Although relatively moist conditions are noted in morning surface observations along the SD/ND border, westerly winds are forecast to increase through the afternoon with ensemble consensus showing high probability for sustained winds between 15-20 mph (gusting to around 25-30 mph). The combination of diurnal heating and westerly downslope flow off the northern High Plains should yield RH reductions into the 20-30% range across northern SD into far southern ND. Spread among guidance regarding afternoon RH minimums persists, but there appears to be sufficient agreement in near-20% RH along the SD/ND border (where fine fuels are fairly dry) to warrant an Elevated fire weather risk area. Elevated conditions may extend further north and east of the risk area, but cloud cover overspreading ND out of southern Canada introduces uncertainty in the RH minimum and max wind forecast. ..Moore.. 03/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1223 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A cutoff low will remain within the lower Colorado River Valley today. Within the northern Plains and parts of the upper Midwest, an upper-level trough will dig southward out of Canada. A surface low will deepen in southern Canada, increasing the surface pressure gradient in the northern Plains. Breezy conditions are likely across the Dakotas. RH may fall to near critical levels, particularly in pars of northern South Dakota. However, there is some uncertainty given the increase in mid/high-level clouds. Furthermore, the strongest surface winds appear probable to be displaced farther north where RH reductions are even less certain. Locally elevated conditions may occur near the North/South Dakota border. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced for portions of the Dakotas. Although relatively moist conditions are noted in morning surface observations along the SD/ND border, westerly winds are forecast to increase through the afternoon with ensemble consensus showing high probability for sustained winds between 15-20 mph (gusting to around 25-30 mph). The combination of diurnal heating and westerly downslope flow off the northern High Plains should yield RH reductions into the 20-30% range across northern SD into far southern ND. Spread among guidance regarding afternoon RH minimums persists, but there appears to be sufficient agreement in near-20% RH along the SD/ND border (where fine fuels are fairly dry) to warrant an Elevated fire weather risk area. Elevated conditions may extend further north and east of the risk area, but cloud cover overspreading ND out of southern Canada introduces uncertainty in the RH minimum and max wind forecast. ..Moore.. 03/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1223 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A cutoff low will remain within the lower Colorado River Valley today. Within the northern Plains and parts of the upper Midwest, an upper-level trough will dig southward out of Canada. A surface low will deepen in southern Canada, increasing the surface pressure gradient in the northern Plains. Breezy conditions are likely across the Dakotas. RH may fall to near critical levels, particularly in pars of northern South Dakota. However, there is some uncertainty given the increase in mid/high-level clouds. Furthermore, the strongest surface winds appear probable to be displaced farther north where RH reductions are even less certain. Locally elevated conditions may occur near the North/South Dakota border. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced for portions of the Dakotas. Although relatively moist conditions are noted in morning surface observations along the SD/ND border, westerly winds are forecast to increase through the afternoon with ensemble consensus showing high probability for sustained winds between 15-20 mph (gusting to around 25-30 mph). The combination of diurnal heating and westerly downslope flow off the northern High Plains should yield RH reductions into the 20-30% range across northern SD into far southern ND. Spread among guidance regarding afternoon RH minimums persists, but there appears to be sufficient agreement in near-20% RH along the SD/ND border (where fine fuels are fairly dry) to warrant an Elevated fire weather risk area. Elevated conditions may extend further north and east of the risk area, but cloud cover overspreading ND out of southern Canada introduces uncertainty in the RH minimum and max wind forecast. ..Moore.. 03/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1223 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A cutoff low will remain within the lower Colorado River Valley today. Within the northern Plains and parts of the upper Midwest, an upper-level trough will dig southward out of Canada. A surface low will deepen in southern Canada, increasing the surface pressure gradient in the northern Plains. Breezy conditions are likely across the Dakotas. RH may fall to near critical levels, particularly in pars of northern South Dakota. However, there is some uncertainty given the increase in mid/high-level clouds. Furthermore, the strongest surface winds appear probable to be displaced farther north where RH reductions are even less certain. Locally elevated conditions may occur near the North/South Dakota border. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced for portions of the Dakotas. Although relatively moist conditions are noted in morning surface observations along the SD/ND border, westerly winds are forecast to increase through the afternoon with ensemble consensus showing high probability for sustained winds between 15-20 mph (gusting to around 25-30 mph). The combination of diurnal heating and westerly downslope flow off the northern High Plains should yield RH reductions into the 20-30% range across northern SD into far southern ND. Spread among guidance regarding afternoon RH minimums persists, but there appears to be sufficient agreement in near-20% RH along the SD/ND border (where fine fuels are fairly dry) to warrant an Elevated fire weather risk area. Elevated conditions may extend further north and east of the risk area, but cloud cover overspreading ND out of southern Canada introduces uncertainty in the RH minimum and max wind forecast. ..Moore.. 03/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1223 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A cutoff low will remain within the lower Colorado River Valley today. Within the northern Plains and parts of the upper Midwest, an upper-level trough will dig southward out of Canada. A surface low will deepen in southern Canada, increasing the surface pressure gradient in the northern Plains. Breezy conditions are likely across the Dakotas. RH may fall to near critical levels, particularly in pars of northern South Dakota. However, there is some uncertainty given the increase in mid/high-level clouds. Furthermore, the strongest surface winds appear probable to be displaced farther north where RH reductions are even less certain. Locally elevated conditions may occur near the North/South Dakota border. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced for portions of the Dakotas. Although relatively moist conditions are noted in morning surface observations along the SD/ND border, westerly winds are forecast to increase through the afternoon with ensemble consensus showing high probability for sustained winds between 15-20 mph (gusting to around 25-30 mph). The combination of diurnal heating and westerly downslope flow off the northern High Plains should yield RH reductions into the 20-30% range across northern SD into far southern ND. Spread among guidance regarding afternoon RH minimums persists, but there appears to be sufficient agreement in near-20% RH along the SD/ND border (where fine fuels are fairly dry) to warrant an Elevated fire weather risk area. Elevated conditions may extend further north and east of the risk area, but cloud cover overspreading ND out of southern Canada introduces uncertainty in the RH minimum and max wind forecast. ..Moore.. 03/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1223 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A cutoff low will remain within the lower Colorado River Valley today. Within the northern Plains and parts of the upper Midwest, an upper-level trough will dig southward out of Canada. A surface low will deepen in southern Canada, increasing the surface pressure gradient in the northern Plains. Breezy conditions are likely across the Dakotas. RH may fall to near critical levels, particularly in pars of northern South Dakota. However, there is some uncertainty given the increase in mid/high-level clouds. Furthermore, the strongest surface winds appear probable to be displaced farther north where RH reductions are even less certain. Locally elevated conditions may occur near the North/South Dakota border. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced for portions of the Dakotas. Although relatively moist conditions are noted in morning surface observations along the SD/ND border, westerly winds are forecast to increase through the afternoon with ensemble consensus showing high probability for sustained winds between 15-20 mph (gusting to around 25-30 mph). The combination of diurnal heating and westerly downslope flow off the northern High Plains should yield RH reductions into the 20-30% range across northern SD into far southern ND. Spread among guidance regarding afternoon RH minimums persists, but there appears to be sufficient agreement in near-20% RH along the SD/ND border (where fine fuels are fairly dry) to warrant an Elevated fire weather risk area. Elevated conditions may extend further north and east of the risk area, but cloud cover overspreading ND out of southern Canada introduces uncertainty in the RH minimum and max wind forecast. ..Moore.. 03/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1223 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A cutoff low will remain within the lower Colorado River Valley today. Within the northern Plains and parts of the upper Midwest, an upper-level trough will dig southward out of Canada. A surface low will deepen in southern Canada, increasing the surface pressure gradient in the northern Plains. Breezy conditions are likely across the Dakotas. RH may fall to near critical levels, particularly in pars of northern South Dakota. However, there is some uncertainty given the increase in mid/high-level clouds. Furthermore, the strongest surface winds appear probable to be displaced farther north where RH reductions are even less certain. Locally elevated conditions may occur near the North/South Dakota border. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced for portions of the Dakotas. Although relatively moist conditions are noted in morning surface observations along the SD/ND border, westerly winds are forecast to increase through the afternoon with ensemble consensus showing high probability for sustained winds between 15-20 mph (gusting to around 25-30 mph). The combination of diurnal heating and westerly downslope flow off the northern High Plains should yield RH reductions into the 20-30% range across northern SD into far southern ND. Spread among guidance regarding afternoon RH minimums persists, but there appears to be sufficient agreement in near-20% RH along the SD/ND border (where fine fuels are fairly dry) to warrant an Elevated fire weather risk area. Elevated conditions may extend further north and east of the risk area, but cloud cover overspreading ND out of southern Canada introduces uncertainty in the RH minimum and max wind forecast. ..Moore.. 03/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1223 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A cutoff low will remain within the lower Colorado River Valley today. Within the northern Plains and parts of the upper Midwest, an upper-level trough will dig southward out of Canada. A surface low will deepen in southern Canada, increasing the surface pressure gradient in the northern Plains. Breezy conditions are likely across the Dakotas. RH may fall to near critical levels, particularly in pars of northern South Dakota. However, there is some uncertainty given the increase in mid/high-level clouds. Furthermore, the strongest surface winds appear probable to be displaced farther north where RH reductions are even less certain. Locally elevated conditions may occur near the North/South Dakota border. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced for portions of the Dakotas. Although relatively moist conditions are noted in morning surface observations along the SD/ND border, westerly winds are forecast to increase through the afternoon with ensemble consensus showing high probability for sustained winds between 15-20 mph (gusting to around 25-30 mph). The combination of diurnal heating and westerly downslope flow off the northern High Plains should yield RH reductions into the 20-30% range across northern SD into far southern ND. Spread among guidance regarding afternoon RH minimums persists, but there appears to be sufficient agreement in near-20% RH along the SD/ND border (where fine fuels are fairly dry) to warrant an Elevated fire weather risk area. Elevated conditions may extend further north and east of the risk area, but cloud cover overspreading ND out of southern Canada introduces uncertainty in the RH minimum and max wind forecast. ..Moore.. 03/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1223 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A cutoff low will remain within the lower Colorado River Valley today. Within the northern Plains and parts of the upper Midwest, an upper-level trough will dig southward out of Canada. A surface low will deepen in southern Canada, increasing the surface pressure gradient in the northern Plains. Breezy conditions are likely across the Dakotas. RH may fall to near critical levels, particularly in pars of northern South Dakota. However, there is some uncertainty given the increase in mid/high-level clouds. Furthermore, the strongest surface winds appear probable to be displaced farther north where RH reductions are even less certain. Locally elevated conditions may occur near the North/South Dakota border. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0256 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 51... FOR EAST-CENTRAL MS INTO CENTRAL/NORTHEAST AL AND NORTHWEST GA
Mesoscale Discussion 0256 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Areas affected...East-central MS into central/northeast AL and northwest GA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 51... Valid 151245Z - 151415Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 51 continues. SUMMARY...A localized damaging-wind threat may persist through the morning. DISCUSSION...A long-lived QLCS is gradually moving eastward across parts of MS/AL into northwest GA this morning. Within the larger QLCS, shorter line segments have occasionally taken on a north-south orientation through the early morning, accompanied by some increase in organization and damaging-wind potential. This general trend may persist into mid morning, with an isolated damaging-wind threat accompanying the stronger line segments that do not get undercut by outflow. Some threat may spread outside of WW 51 into northwest GA, though the need for downstream watch issuance is uncertain, due to weaker instability with northeastward extent (as noted in the 12Z FFC sounding and objective mesoanalyses). Farther southwest, some uptick remains possible from east-central MS into central AL, where MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and favorable deep-layer shear remain in place this morning. Local watch extension may need to be considered for parts of MS/AL, depending on short-term convective trends. ..Dean/Thompson.. 03/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...JAN... LAT...LON 33048915 33118746 34018604 34848520 34838479 34428447 33348515 32728639 32478762 32358836 32318902 32338946 32608954 33048915 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM SOUTHEAST MS INTO CENTRAL AL... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with very large hail and isolated damaging winds are expected through this evening from the Edwards Plateau into south central Texas. Damaging winds will be possible today from southeast Mississippi into central Alabama. ...Synopsis... As part of an evolving Rex block, a midlevel closed low will remain quasi-stationary over the lower CO River Valley through tonight. Farther east, subtle embedded speed maxima will eject northeastward from northern Mexico to TX, while within the northern stream a shortwave trough digs southeastward toward the upper Great Lakes overnight. Near and ahead of a surface cold front, an expansive band of convection has persisted through the early morning hours from the AR/LA border into northern AL. ...Edwards Plateau/south central TX through tonight... Isolated supercells are ongoing over the Edwards Plateau in association with a subtle speed max moving northeastward from Mexico. Steep midlevel lapse rates, boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-72 F south of a cold front, and sufficiently long hodographs will favor a continuation of the isolated supercell/very large hail threat this morning. Additional supercell development is expected later today through the afternoon into south central TX, with isolated storm development possible into parts of southeast TX. The more intense storms will be capable of producing swaths of very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter), along with isolated damaging winds of 60-70 mph. A storm cluster or two could also persist through tonight near or a little east of the Rio Grande, with a continued hail/wind threat into south TX. ...MS/AL today... The MS/AL convection will persist through the day as the moist boundary layer warms ahead of the storms. Low-level flow will tend to veer to westerly and slowly weaken through the day, though 50 kt midlevel flow will be maintained into the Southeast. This will support the potential for occasional/embedded line segments capable of producing damaging winds, mainly across southeast MS into central AL where the larger buoyancy is expected. ..Thompson/Dean.. 03/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM SOUTHEAST MS INTO CENTRAL AL... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with very large hail and isolated damaging winds are expected through this evening from the Edwards Plateau into south central Texas. Damaging winds will be possible today from southeast Mississippi into central Alabama. ...Synopsis... As part of an evolving Rex block, a midlevel closed low will remain quasi-stationary over the lower CO River Valley through tonight. Farther east, subtle embedded speed maxima will eject northeastward from northern Mexico to TX, while within the northern stream a shortwave trough digs southeastward toward the upper Great Lakes overnight. Near and ahead of a surface cold front, an expansive band of convection has persisted through the early morning hours from the AR/LA border into northern AL. ...Edwards Plateau/south central TX through tonight... Isolated supercells are ongoing over the Edwards Plateau in association with a subtle speed max moving northeastward from Mexico. Steep midlevel lapse rates, boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-72 F south of a cold front, and sufficiently long hodographs will favor a continuation of the isolated supercell/very large hail threat this morning. Additional supercell development is expected later today through the afternoon into south central TX, with isolated storm development possible into parts of southeast TX. The more intense storms will be capable of producing swaths of very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter), along with isolated damaging winds of 60-70 mph. A storm cluster or two could also persist through tonight near or a little east of the Rio Grande, with a continued hail/wind threat into south TX. ...MS/AL today... The MS/AL convection will persist through the day as the moist boundary layer warms ahead of the storms. Low-level flow will tend to veer to westerly and slowly weaken through the day, though 50 kt midlevel flow will be maintained into the Southeast. This will support the potential for occasional/embedded line segments capable of producing damaging winds, mainly across southeast MS into central AL where the larger buoyancy is expected. ..Thompson/Dean.. 03/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM SOUTHEAST MS INTO CENTRAL AL... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with very large hail and isolated damaging winds are expected through this evening from the Edwards Plateau into south central Texas. Damaging winds will be possible today from southeast Mississippi into central Alabama. ...Synopsis... As part of an evolving Rex block, a midlevel closed low will remain quasi-stationary over the lower CO River Valley through tonight. Farther east, subtle embedded speed maxima will eject northeastward from northern Mexico to TX, while within the northern stream a shortwave trough digs southeastward toward the upper Great Lakes overnight. Near and ahead of a surface cold front, an expansive band of convection has persisted through the early morning hours from the AR/LA border into northern AL. ...Edwards Plateau/south central TX through tonight... Isolated supercells are ongoing over the Edwards Plateau in association with a subtle speed max moving northeastward from Mexico. Steep midlevel lapse rates, boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-72 F south of a cold front, and sufficiently long hodographs will favor a continuation of the isolated supercell/very large hail threat this morning. Additional supercell development is expected later today through the afternoon into south central TX, with isolated storm development possible into parts of southeast TX. The more intense storms will be capable of producing swaths of very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter), along with isolated damaging winds of 60-70 mph. A storm cluster or two could also persist through tonight near or a little east of the Rio Grande, with a continued hail/wind threat into south TX. ...MS/AL today... The MS/AL convection will persist through the day as the moist boundary layer warms ahead of the storms. Low-level flow will tend to veer to westerly and slowly weaken through the day, though 50 kt midlevel flow will be maintained into the Southeast. This will support the potential for occasional/embedded line segments capable of producing damaging winds, mainly across southeast MS into central AL where the larger buoyancy is expected. ..Thompson/Dean.. 03/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM SOUTHEAST MS INTO CENTRAL AL... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with very large hail and isolated damaging winds are expected through this evening from the Edwards Plateau into south central Texas. Damaging winds will be possible today from southeast Mississippi into central Alabama. ...Synopsis... As part of an evolving Rex block, a midlevel closed low will remain quasi-stationary over the lower CO River Valley through tonight. Farther east, subtle embedded speed maxima will eject northeastward from northern Mexico to TX, while within the northern stream a shortwave trough digs southeastward toward the upper Great Lakes overnight. Near and ahead of a surface cold front, an expansive band of convection has persisted through the early morning hours from the AR/LA border into northern AL. ...Edwards Plateau/south central TX through tonight... Isolated supercells are ongoing over the Edwards Plateau in association with a subtle speed max moving northeastward from Mexico. Steep midlevel lapse rates, boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-72 F south of a cold front, and sufficiently long hodographs will favor a continuation of the isolated supercell/very large hail threat this morning. Additional supercell development is expected later today through the afternoon into south central TX, with isolated storm development possible into parts of southeast TX. The more intense storms will be capable of producing swaths of very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter), along with isolated damaging winds of 60-70 mph. A storm cluster or two could also persist through tonight near or a little east of the Rio Grande, with a continued hail/wind threat into south TX. ...MS/AL today... The MS/AL convection will persist through the day as the moist boundary layer warms ahead of the storms. Low-level flow will tend to veer to westerly and slowly weaken through the day, though 50 kt midlevel flow will be maintained into the Southeast. This will support the potential for occasional/embedded line segments capable of producing damaging winds, mainly across southeast MS into central AL where the larger buoyancy is expected. ..Thompson/Dean.. 03/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM SOUTHEAST MS INTO CENTRAL AL... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with very large hail and isolated damaging winds are expected through this evening from the Edwards Plateau into south central Texas. Damaging winds will be possible today from southeast Mississippi into central Alabama. ...Synopsis... As part of an evolving Rex block, a midlevel closed low will remain quasi-stationary over the lower CO River Valley through tonight. Farther east, subtle embedded speed maxima will eject northeastward from northern Mexico to TX, while within the northern stream a shortwave trough digs southeastward toward the upper Great Lakes overnight. Near and ahead of a surface cold front, an expansive band of convection has persisted through the early morning hours from the AR/LA border into northern AL. ...Edwards Plateau/south central TX through tonight... Isolated supercells are ongoing over the Edwards Plateau in association with a subtle speed max moving northeastward from Mexico. Steep midlevel lapse rates, boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-72 F south of a cold front, and sufficiently long hodographs will favor a continuation of the isolated supercell/very large hail threat this morning. Additional supercell development is expected later today through the afternoon into south central TX, with isolated storm development possible into parts of southeast TX. The more intense storms will be capable of producing swaths of very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter), along with isolated damaging winds of 60-70 mph. A storm cluster or two could also persist through tonight near or a little east of the Rio Grande, with a continued hail/wind threat into south TX. ...MS/AL today... The MS/AL convection will persist through the day as the moist boundary layer warms ahead of the storms. Low-level flow will tend to veer to westerly and slowly weaken through the day, though 50 kt midlevel flow will be maintained into the Southeast. This will support the potential for occasional/embedded line segments capable of producing damaging winds, mainly across southeast MS into central AL where the larger buoyancy is expected. ..Thompson/Dean.. 03/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM SOUTHEAST MS INTO CENTRAL AL... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with very large hail and isolated damaging winds are expected through this evening from the Edwards Plateau into south central Texas. Damaging winds will be possible today from southeast Mississippi into central Alabama. ...Synopsis... As part of an evolving Rex block, a midlevel closed low will remain quasi-stationary over the lower CO River Valley through tonight. Farther east, subtle embedded speed maxima will eject northeastward from northern Mexico to TX, while within the northern stream a shortwave trough digs southeastward toward the upper Great Lakes overnight. Near and ahead of a surface cold front, an expansive band of convection has persisted through the early morning hours from the AR/LA border into northern AL. ...Edwards Plateau/south central TX through tonight... Isolated supercells are ongoing over the Edwards Plateau in association with a subtle speed max moving northeastward from Mexico. Steep midlevel lapse rates, boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-72 F south of a cold front, and sufficiently long hodographs will favor a continuation of the isolated supercell/very large hail threat this morning. Additional supercell development is expected later today through the afternoon into south central TX, with isolated storm development possible into parts of southeast TX. The more intense storms will be capable of producing swaths of very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter), along with isolated damaging winds of 60-70 mph. A storm cluster or two could also persist through tonight near or a little east of the Rio Grande, with a continued hail/wind threat into south TX. ...MS/AL today... The MS/AL convection will persist through the day as the moist boundary layer warms ahead of the storms. Low-level flow will tend to veer to westerly and slowly weaken through the day, though 50 kt midlevel flow will be maintained into the Southeast. This will support the potential for occasional/embedded line segments capable of producing damaging winds, mainly across southeast MS into central AL where the larger buoyancy is expected. ..Thompson/Dean.. 03/15/2024 Read more