Severe Storms

WW 0053 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 53 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE BVE TO 35 NE BVE TO 35 SE MOB TO 20 N PNS TO 10 WNW DHN TO 35 NE DHN. ..WENDT..03/15/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...TAE...LIX...LCH...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 53 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC045-061-067-069-152340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DALE GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON FLC005-033-059-091-113-131-133-152340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY ESCAMBIA HOLMES OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WALTON WASHINGTON GMZ557-633-634-635-636-650-655-750-152340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0053 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 53 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE BVE TO 35 NE BVE TO 35 SE MOB TO 20 N PNS TO 10 WNW DHN TO 35 NE DHN. ..WENDT..03/15/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...TAE...LIX...LCH...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 53 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC045-061-067-069-152340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DALE GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON FLC005-033-059-091-113-131-133-152340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY ESCAMBIA HOLMES OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WALTON WASHINGTON GMZ557-633-634-635-636-650-655-750-152340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0053 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 53 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE BVE TO 35 NE BVE TO 35 SE MOB TO 20 N PNS TO 10 WNW DHN TO 35 NE DHN. ..WENDT..03/15/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...TAE...LIX...LCH...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 53 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC045-061-067-069-152340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DALE GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON FLC005-033-059-091-113-131-133-152340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY ESCAMBIA HOLMES OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WALTON WASHINGTON GMZ557-633-634-635-636-650-655-750-152340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 0263 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 54... FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0263 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0605 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Areas affected...Southeast Texas...Southwest Louisiana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 54... Valid 152305Z - 160100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 54 continues. SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to continue across parts of southeast Texas and far southwest Louisiana for a couple more hours. Isolated large hail and wind damage will be the main threats. The severe threat may spread eastward further into southwest Louisiana, but is expected to be too marginal for additional weather watch issuance. DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Houston shows a cluster of strong thunderstorms near the Texas-Louisiana state line, with additional more discrete storms to the southwest of Houston. The storms are located along the eastern edge of a moderately unstable airmass where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition, the WSR-88D VWP at Houston and Lake Charles have 0-6 km shear generally in the 55 to 65 knot range. This environment should support a severe threat for a couple more hours, with a potential for wind damage and isolated large hail. On radar, an outflow boundary is moving southward off the coast of southwest Louisiana. The airmass behind the boundary is more stable. As the stronger cells move eastward into this relatively weak instability across southwest Louisiana, the severe threat is expected to become marginal. For this reason, watch issuance is not planned to the east of WW 54. ..Broyles.. 03/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...EWX... LAT...LON 30419530 30759385 30729304 30449271 30079276 29809298 29769337 29759408 29309496 28979547 28809597 28819640 29029669 29359686 29709673 30019629 30419530 Read more

WW 0054 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 54 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 WNW DRT TO 45 SSE SAT TO 30 N PSX TO 30 W BPT. ..BROYLES..03/15/24 ATTN...WFO...EWX...HGX...CRP...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 54 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC013-025-039-071-127-163-167-175-239-245-255-283-297-311-321- 323-361-469-479-507-160140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATASCOSA BEE BRAZORIA CHAMBERS DIMMIT FRIO GALVESTON GOLIAD JACKSON JEFFERSON KARNES LA SALLE LIVE OAK MCMULLEN MATAGORDA MAVERICK ORANGE VICTORIA WEBB ZAVALA GMZ335-160140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE GALVESTON BAY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 54 SEVERE TSTM TX CW 151835Z - 160100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 54 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 135 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of southern and southeastern Texas Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to expand in coverage across southern and eventually into southeastern Texas over the next few hours. Very large hail will be possible with these storms, along with potential for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado. Storms may linger into the evening, particularly across western portions of the watch across the Rio Grande Valley vicinity. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles either side of a line from 95 miles west of Hondo TX to 15 miles northeast of Galveston TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 53... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Goss Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Mar 15 22:47:03 UTC 2024.

WW 0053 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 53 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE BVE TO 35 NE BVE TO 35 SE MOB TO 20 N PNS TO 10 WNW DHN TO 35 NE DHN. ..WENDT..03/15/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...TAE...LIX...LCH...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 53 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC045-061-067-069-152340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DALE GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON FLC005-033-059-091-113-131-133-152340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY ESCAMBIA HOLMES OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WALTON WASHINGTON GMZ557-633-634-635-636-650-655-750-152340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0053 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 53 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE BVE TO 35 NE BVE TO 35 SE MOB TO 20 N PNS TO 10 WNW DHN TO 35 NE DHN. ..WENDT..03/15/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...TAE...LIX...LCH...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 53 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC045-061-067-069-152340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DALE GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON FLC005-033-059-091-113-131-133-152340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY ESCAMBIA HOLMES OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WALTON WASHINGTON GMZ557-633-634-635-636-650-655-750-152340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 53 SEVERE TSTM AL FL LA MS CW 151700Z - 160000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 53 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of southern Alabama western portions of the Florida Panhandle southeastern Louisiana southern Mississippi Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from NOON until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to continue increasing in coverage and intensity this afternoon, with stronger storms/bands likely to produce damaging wind gusts and hail. Storms will spread eastward/southeastward with time, weakening -- and gradually moving offshore -- by early evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles north northwest of Houma LA to 30 miles east of Crestview FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 52... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Goss Read more

WW 0054 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 54 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N DRT TO 45 SE JCT TO 20 ENE BAZ TO 40 SW CLL TO 15 NNE CLL. ..BROYLES..03/15/24 ATTN...WFO...EWX...HGX...CRP...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 54 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC013-015-019-025-029-039-041-071-089-091-123-127-137-149-157- 163-167-175-177-185-187-199-201-225-239-241-245-255-259-265-271- 283-285-291-297-311-313-321-323-325-339-351-361-373-385-407-455- 457-463-465-469-471-473-477-479-481-493-507-152340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATASCOSA AUSTIN BANDERA BEE BEXAR BRAZORIA BRAZOS CHAMBERS COLORADO COMAL DEWITT DIMMIT EDWARDS FAYETTE FORT BEND FRIO GALVESTON GOLIAD GONZALES GRIMES GUADALUPE HARDIN HARRIS HOUSTON JACKSON JASPER JEFFERSON KARNES KENDALL KERR KINNEY LA SALLE LAVACA LIBERTY LIVE OAK MCMULLEN MADISON MATAGORDA MAVERICK MEDINA MONTGOMERY NEWTON ORANGE POLK REAL SAN JACINTO TRINITY TYLER UVALDE VAL VERDE VICTORIA Read more

MD 0262 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 54... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0262 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Areas affected...Portions of south-central and southeast Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 54... Valid 152054Z - 152230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 54 continues. SUMMARY...The severe-storm risk continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 54. Large to very large hail remains the primary concern. DISCUSSION...Supercell clusters continue to evolve/intensify between San Antonio and Houston TX this afternoon, generally focused along the outflow-modified cold front draped across the area. The environment remains favorable for large to very large hail production (possibly increasing to near 2 to 3-inch diameter) with these supercells, given fairly weak sub-freezing level shear/buoyancy and favorable instability and cloud-layer shear through the hail-growth zone. So far, 1.75 inch hail and wind damage has been reported with this activity. In addition to the large-hail risk, severe-gust potential should also increase owing to localized upscale growth into larger supercell clusters and bowing segments. However, the increasing storm coverage could also lead to destructive interference with time, especially northwest of the Houston area. Farther west, two discrete supercells are ongoing west-northwest of Eagle Pass TX (across the International border). While these storms are largely anchored to the higher terrain, east-southeast right-mover and north-northeast left-mover storm motion vectors could allow this activity to spread across the border with time. Continued pre-convective heating/destabilization amid favorable vertical shear should support the maintenance of this activity into TX, with the primary risk being very large hail. ..Weinman.. 03/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 28560016 28540053 28840076 29190089 29580077 29860045 29920018 29629956 29549891 29659810 30339688 30569630 30579582 30509448 30139419 29849426 29069567 28849637 28729742 28739804 28899871 28859942 28560016 Read more

WW 0053 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 53 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW BVE TO 30 NW BVE TO 35 SSW GPT TO 25 E GPT TO 5 NE MOB TO 25 SE GZH TO 20 SE TOI TO 35 N DHN TO 40 S CSG. ..WENDT..03/15/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...TAE...LIX...LCH...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 53 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-005-031-039-045-053-061-067-069-097-152240- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BARBOUR COFFEE COVINGTON DALE ESCAMBIA GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON MOBILE FLC005-033-059-091-113-131-133-152240- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY ESCAMBIA HOLMES OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WALTON WASHINGTON LAC075-152240- LA Read more

MD 0261 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GA
Mesoscale Discussion 0261 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Areas affected...portions of southern GA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 152009Z - 152145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms near a southward-sagging front may produce sporadic hail to near 1 inch in diameter and locally gusty winds through early evening. A watch is not expected at this time. DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms ongoing near a southward-sagging boundary will continue into early evening. MUCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg amid moderate 0-6 km effective shear will support organized cells. Most of this activity appears somewhat elevated just to the cool side of the surface boundary and forcing across the area is expected to remain weak/unfocused. However, RAP forecast soundings indicate elongated/straight hodographs and modest midlevel lapse rates. This will continue to support sporadic instances of hail to near 1 inch in diameter. If any storms can develop ahead of the boundary or remain anchored to the front, steep low-level lapse rates across southern GA may support strong gusts as well. At this time, severe potential/storm coverage is expected to remain low and a watch is not expected at this time. ..Leitman/Goss.. 03/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX... LAT...LON 32318468 32648199 32188147 31858151 31568190 31308285 31158372 31158437 31288477 31548502 31728509 31958510 32118503 32318468 Read more

MD 0260 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 53... FOR CENTRAL GULF COAST VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 0260 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Areas affected...central Gulf Coast vicinity Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 53... Valid 151956Z - 152130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 53 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated hail and strong gusts remain possible across far southeast Louisiana into southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Convection continues this afternoon along a surging cold front/outflow boundary. The boundary has surged southeast a bit quicker than previously anticipated, resulting in slightly more elevated convection. Nevertheless, favorable thermodynamics and moderate vertical shear have been sufficient for organized convection. A few stronger cells have occasionally shows MRMS MESH to around 1.25 inches. Gusts to around 60 mph also will be possible, especially across southeast Louisiana where the front is quickly shifting southeast. General trends are expected to persist for another few hours into late afternoon/early evening across WW 53. ..Leitman.. 03/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 30998970 31798628 32138497 31228511 30638561 30108646 29808851 29458973 29469055 29569105 29999090 30279022 30998970 Read more

WW 0053 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 53 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW HUM TO 30 SSE ASD TO 25 NW MOB TO 20 SW GZH TO 30 SW TOI TO 35 S CSG. ..LEITMAN..03/15/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...TAE...LIX...LCH...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 53 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-005-031-039-045-053-061-067-069-097-152140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BARBOUR COFFEE COVINGTON DALE ESCAMBIA GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON MOBILE FLC005-033-059-091-113-131-133-152140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY ESCAMBIA HOLMES OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WALTON WASHINGTON LAC051-057-075-087-109-152140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Fire weather potential appears limited through the extended period. Although localized concerns may emerge across portions of the central Plains and southern High Plains around mid-week, the potential for critical fire weather conditions is too limited to confidently introduce risk probabilities. Long-range guidance shows relatively good agreement in the maintenance of a broad northwesterly flow regime across the central CONUS through the end of the weekend and into the middle of next week. This synoptic regime will favor cool, but dry, conditions across the central Plains with low probability for wetting precipitation through roughly D6/Wednesday (per recent GEFS/EC ensemble guidance). Dry cold frontal passages featuring breezy winds will pose a risk of localized fire weather concerns given the low probability for precipitation and ongoing drought conditions across portions of the central/northern Plains. Ensemble consensus suggests that such frontal passages are most probable during the D3/Sun to D4/Mon time frame, but confidence in reaching critical thresholds is limited at this time. To the south, the upper-low currently over the lower CO River Valley is forecast to gradually deamplify before meandering east into the southern High Plains around D6/Wednesday. Weakening upper-level flow should limit the potential for widespread strong winds, but localized elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible for parts of the southern High Plains - most likely Southwest TX into adjacent areas of southeast NM. While this potential is noted, a weak signal in extended ensemble guidance precludes introducing a risk area. ..Moore.. 03/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Fire weather potential appears limited through the extended period. Although localized concerns may emerge across portions of the central Plains and southern High Plains around mid-week, the potential for critical fire weather conditions is too limited to confidently introduce risk probabilities. Long-range guidance shows relatively good agreement in the maintenance of a broad northwesterly flow regime across the central CONUS through the end of the weekend and into the middle of next week. This synoptic regime will favor cool, but dry, conditions across the central Plains with low probability for wetting precipitation through roughly D6/Wednesday (per recent GEFS/EC ensemble guidance). Dry cold frontal passages featuring breezy winds will pose a risk of localized fire weather concerns given the low probability for precipitation and ongoing drought conditions across portions of the central/northern Plains. Ensemble consensus suggests that such frontal passages are most probable during the D3/Sun to D4/Mon time frame, but confidence in reaching critical thresholds is limited at this time. To the south, the upper-low currently over the lower CO River Valley is forecast to gradually deamplify before meandering east into the southern High Plains around D6/Wednesday. Weakening upper-level flow should limit the potential for widespread strong winds, but localized elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible for parts of the southern High Plains - most likely Southwest TX into adjacent areas of southeast NM. While this potential is noted, a weak signal in extended ensemble guidance precludes introducing a risk area. ..Moore.. 03/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Fire weather potential appears limited through the extended period. Although localized concerns may emerge across portions of the central Plains and southern High Plains around mid-week, the potential for critical fire weather conditions is too limited to confidently introduce risk probabilities. Long-range guidance shows relatively good agreement in the maintenance of a broad northwesterly flow regime across the central CONUS through the end of the weekend and into the middle of next week. This synoptic regime will favor cool, but dry, conditions across the central Plains with low probability for wetting precipitation through roughly D6/Wednesday (per recent GEFS/EC ensemble guidance). Dry cold frontal passages featuring breezy winds will pose a risk of localized fire weather concerns given the low probability for precipitation and ongoing drought conditions across portions of the central/northern Plains. Ensemble consensus suggests that such frontal passages are most probable during the D3/Sun to D4/Mon time frame, but confidence in reaching critical thresholds is limited at this time. To the south, the upper-low currently over the lower CO River Valley is forecast to gradually deamplify before meandering east into the southern High Plains around D6/Wednesday. Weakening upper-level flow should limit the potential for widespread strong winds, but localized elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible for parts of the southern High Plains - most likely Southwest TX into adjacent areas of southeast NM. While this potential is noted, a weak signal in extended ensemble guidance precludes introducing a risk area. ..Moore.. 03/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Fire weather potential appears limited through the extended period. Although localized concerns may emerge across portions of the central Plains and southern High Plains around mid-week, the potential for critical fire weather conditions is too limited to confidently introduce risk probabilities. Long-range guidance shows relatively good agreement in the maintenance of a broad northwesterly flow regime across the central CONUS through the end of the weekend and into the middle of next week. This synoptic regime will favor cool, but dry, conditions across the central Plains with low probability for wetting precipitation through roughly D6/Wednesday (per recent GEFS/EC ensemble guidance). Dry cold frontal passages featuring breezy winds will pose a risk of localized fire weather concerns given the low probability for precipitation and ongoing drought conditions across portions of the central/northern Plains. Ensemble consensus suggests that such frontal passages are most probable during the D3/Sun to D4/Mon time frame, but confidence in reaching critical thresholds is limited at this time. To the south, the upper-low currently over the lower CO River Valley is forecast to gradually deamplify before meandering east into the southern High Plains around D6/Wednesday. Weakening upper-level flow should limit the potential for widespread strong winds, but localized elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible for parts of the southern High Plains - most likely Southwest TX into adjacent areas of southeast NM. While this potential is noted, a weak signal in extended ensemble guidance precludes introducing a risk area. ..Moore.. 03/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more