Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, perhaps including an organizing cluster or two, may impact the Gulf coast vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. This may be accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather, from mid/upper Texas coastal areas eastward through northern Florida and southern Georgia. ...Synopsis... Within an amplified split flow emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, a prominent blocking high appears likely to remain centered over the Pacific Northwest vicinity. To its south, a weakening low will remain quasi-stationary or retrograde a bit across the Southwest. Downstream of this regime, a significant digging short wave impulse of northern mid-latitude origins is forecast to contribute to a slow further amplification of positively-tilted larger-scale mid/upper troughing across the interior and eastern United States. Preceded by a short wave perturbation of subtropical eastern Pacific origins, which will probably become increasingly sheared as it accelerates into a confluent regime east-northeast of the lower Rio Grande Valley, initial low amplitude anticyclonic flow is forecast to trend broadly cyclonic across much of the northern Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Coast vicinity by late Sunday night. In lower levels, a significant cold intrusion accompanying the amplifying mid-level troughing will continue to advance southeastward and southward to the east of the Rockies. By 12Z Monday, it may begin to overtake a weak preceding front, initially stalled offshore of the south Atlantic coast through the Gulf coast vicinity. In advance of the approaching cold front, models suggest that a residual moist boundary-layer may become weak to moderately unstable across and perhaps somewhat inland of Gulf coastal areas during the day Sunday. ...Texas coastal plain through eastern Gulf coast... Due to spread within the various model output concerning shorter wavelength perturbations and associated forcing, depictions of potential convection evolution through this period remain varied. In general, it still appears that one or two clusters of thunderstorms, initially rooted in ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may be ongoing early Sunday across the northwest Gulf coast vicinity. As this activity begins to acquire increasing inflow of the destabilizing boundary-layer air, in the presence of gradually strengthening west-southwesterly mid-level flow (including 40-70+ kt in the 700-500 mb layer), there appears potential for convection to organize and pose a risk for damaging wind gusts while spreading eastward across much of the Gulf coast and coastal waters vicinity by Sunday evening. Sunday evening into Sunday night, southwesterly flow in lower levels may strengthen (including to 30-50 kt around 850 mb) ahead of the cold front across parts of northern Florida into the Georgia coastal plain. It is possible that this could be accompanied by sufficient low-level moistening and enlargement of low-level hodographs to contribute to an environment conducive to supercell structures with potential to produce tornadoes. ..Kerr.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, perhaps including an organizing cluster or two, may impact the Gulf coast vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. This may be accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather, from mid/upper Texas coastal areas eastward through northern Florida and southern Georgia. ...Synopsis... Within an amplified split flow emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, a prominent blocking high appears likely to remain centered over the Pacific Northwest vicinity. To its south, a weakening low will remain quasi-stationary or retrograde a bit across the Southwest. Downstream of this regime, a significant digging short wave impulse of northern mid-latitude origins is forecast to contribute to a slow further amplification of positively-tilted larger-scale mid/upper troughing across the interior and eastern United States. Preceded by a short wave perturbation of subtropical eastern Pacific origins, which will probably become increasingly sheared as it accelerates into a confluent regime east-northeast of the lower Rio Grande Valley, initial low amplitude anticyclonic flow is forecast to trend broadly cyclonic across much of the northern Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Coast vicinity by late Sunday night. In lower levels, a significant cold intrusion accompanying the amplifying mid-level troughing will continue to advance southeastward and southward to the east of the Rockies. By 12Z Monday, it may begin to overtake a weak preceding front, initially stalled offshore of the south Atlantic coast through the Gulf coast vicinity. In advance of the approaching cold front, models suggest that a residual moist boundary-layer may become weak to moderately unstable across and perhaps somewhat inland of Gulf coastal areas during the day Sunday. ...Texas coastal plain through eastern Gulf coast... Due to spread within the various model output concerning shorter wavelength perturbations and associated forcing, depictions of potential convection evolution through this period remain varied. In general, it still appears that one or two clusters of thunderstorms, initially rooted in ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may be ongoing early Sunday across the northwest Gulf coast vicinity. As this activity begins to acquire increasing inflow of the destabilizing boundary-layer air, in the presence of gradually strengthening west-southwesterly mid-level flow (including 40-70+ kt in the 700-500 mb layer), there appears potential for convection to organize and pose a risk for damaging wind gusts while spreading eastward across much of the Gulf coast and coastal waters vicinity by Sunday evening. Sunday evening into Sunday night, southwesterly flow in lower levels may strengthen (including to 30-50 kt around 850 mb) ahead of the cold front across parts of northern Florida into the Georgia coastal plain. It is possible that this could be accompanied by sufficient low-level moistening and enlargement of low-level hodographs to contribute to an environment conducive to supercell structures with potential to produce tornadoes. ..Kerr.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, perhaps including an organizing cluster or two, may impact the Gulf coast vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. This may be accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather, from mid/upper Texas coastal areas eastward through northern Florida and southern Georgia. ...Synopsis... Within an amplified split flow emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, a prominent blocking high appears likely to remain centered over the Pacific Northwest vicinity. To its south, a weakening low will remain quasi-stationary or retrograde a bit across the Southwest. Downstream of this regime, a significant digging short wave impulse of northern mid-latitude origins is forecast to contribute to a slow further amplification of positively-tilted larger-scale mid/upper troughing across the interior and eastern United States. Preceded by a short wave perturbation of subtropical eastern Pacific origins, which will probably become increasingly sheared as it accelerates into a confluent regime east-northeast of the lower Rio Grande Valley, initial low amplitude anticyclonic flow is forecast to trend broadly cyclonic across much of the northern Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Coast vicinity by late Sunday night. In lower levels, a significant cold intrusion accompanying the amplifying mid-level troughing will continue to advance southeastward and southward to the east of the Rockies. By 12Z Monday, it may begin to overtake a weak preceding front, initially stalled offshore of the south Atlantic coast through the Gulf coast vicinity. In advance of the approaching cold front, models suggest that a residual moist boundary-layer may become weak to moderately unstable across and perhaps somewhat inland of Gulf coastal areas during the day Sunday. ...Texas coastal plain through eastern Gulf coast... Due to spread within the various model output concerning shorter wavelength perturbations and associated forcing, depictions of potential convection evolution through this period remain varied. In general, it still appears that one or two clusters of thunderstorms, initially rooted in ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may be ongoing early Sunday across the northwest Gulf coast vicinity. As this activity begins to acquire increasing inflow of the destabilizing boundary-layer air, in the presence of gradually strengthening west-southwesterly mid-level flow (including 40-70+ kt in the 700-500 mb layer), there appears potential for convection to organize and pose a risk for damaging wind gusts while spreading eastward across much of the Gulf coast and coastal waters vicinity by Sunday evening. Sunday evening into Sunday night, southwesterly flow in lower levels may strengthen (including to 30-50 kt around 850 mb) ahead of the cold front across parts of northern Florida into the Georgia coastal plain. It is possible that this could be accompanied by sufficient low-level moistening and enlargement of low-level hodographs to contribute to an environment conducive to supercell structures with potential to produce tornadoes. ..Kerr.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, perhaps including an organizing cluster or two, may impact the Gulf coast vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. This may be accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather, from mid/upper Texas coastal areas eastward through northern Florida and southern Georgia. ...Synopsis... Within an amplified split flow emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, a prominent blocking high appears likely to remain centered over the Pacific Northwest vicinity. To its south, a weakening low will remain quasi-stationary or retrograde a bit across the Southwest. Downstream of this regime, a significant digging short wave impulse of northern mid-latitude origins is forecast to contribute to a slow further amplification of positively-tilted larger-scale mid/upper troughing across the interior and eastern United States. Preceded by a short wave perturbation of subtropical eastern Pacific origins, which will probably become increasingly sheared as it accelerates into a confluent regime east-northeast of the lower Rio Grande Valley, initial low amplitude anticyclonic flow is forecast to trend broadly cyclonic across much of the northern Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Coast vicinity by late Sunday night. In lower levels, a significant cold intrusion accompanying the amplifying mid-level troughing will continue to advance southeastward and southward to the east of the Rockies. By 12Z Monday, it may begin to overtake a weak preceding front, initially stalled offshore of the south Atlantic coast through the Gulf coast vicinity. In advance of the approaching cold front, models suggest that a residual moist boundary-layer may become weak to moderately unstable across and perhaps somewhat inland of Gulf coastal areas during the day Sunday. ...Texas coastal plain through eastern Gulf coast... Due to spread within the various model output concerning shorter wavelength perturbations and associated forcing, depictions of potential convection evolution through this period remain varied. In general, it still appears that one or two clusters of thunderstorms, initially rooted in ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may be ongoing early Sunday across the northwest Gulf coast vicinity. As this activity begins to acquire increasing inflow of the destabilizing boundary-layer air, in the presence of gradually strengthening west-southwesterly mid-level flow (including 40-70+ kt in the 700-500 mb layer), there appears potential for convection to organize and pose a risk for damaging wind gusts while spreading eastward across much of the Gulf coast and coastal waters vicinity by Sunday evening. Sunday evening into Sunday night, southwesterly flow in lower levels may strengthen (including to 30-50 kt around 850 mb) ahead of the cold front across parts of northern Florida into the Georgia coastal plain. It is possible that this could be accompanied by sufficient low-level moistening and enlargement of low-level hodographs to contribute to an environment conducive to supercell structures with potential to produce tornadoes. ..Kerr.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, perhaps including an organizing cluster or two, may impact the Gulf coast vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. This may be accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather, from mid/upper Texas coastal areas eastward through northern Florida and southern Georgia. ...Synopsis... Within an amplified split flow emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, a prominent blocking high appears likely to remain centered over the Pacific Northwest vicinity. To its south, a weakening low will remain quasi-stationary or retrograde a bit across the Southwest. Downstream of this regime, a significant digging short wave impulse of northern mid-latitude origins is forecast to contribute to a slow further amplification of positively-tilted larger-scale mid/upper troughing across the interior and eastern United States. Preceded by a short wave perturbation of subtropical eastern Pacific origins, which will probably become increasingly sheared as it accelerates into a confluent regime east-northeast of the lower Rio Grande Valley, initial low amplitude anticyclonic flow is forecast to trend broadly cyclonic across much of the northern Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Coast vicinity by late Sunday night. In lower levels, a significant cold intrusion accompanying the amplifying mid-level troughing will continue to advance southeastward and southward to the east of the Rockies. By 12Z Monday, it may begin to overtake a weak preceding front, initially stalled offshore of the south Atlantic coast through the Gulf coast vicinity. In advance of the approaching cold front, models suggest that a residual moist boundary-layer may become weak to moderately unstable across and perhaps somewhat inland of Gulf coastal areas during the day Sunday. ...Texas coastal plain through eastern Gulf coast... Due to spread within the various model output concerning shorter wavelength perturbations and associated forcing, depictions of potential convection evolution through this period remain varied. In general, it still appears that one or two clusters of thunderstorms, initially rooted in ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may be ongoing early Sunday across the northwest Gulf coast vicinity. As this activity begins to acquire increasing inflow of the destabilizing boundary-layer air, in the presence of gradually strengthening west-southwesterly mid-level flow (including 40-70+ kt in the 700-500 mb layer), there appears potential for convection to organize and pose a risk for damaging wind gusts while spreading eastward across much of the Gulf coast and coastal waters vicinity by Sunday evening. Sunday evening into Sunday night, southwesterly flow in lower levels may strengthen (including to 30-50 kt around 850 mb) ahead of the cold front across parts of northern Florida into the Georgia coastal plain. It is possible that this could be accompanied by sufficient low-level moistening and enlargement of low-level hodographs to contribute to an environment conducive to supercell structures with potential to produce tornadoes. ..Kerr.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are forecast across portions of south central and southeastern Texas Saturday through Saturday night. Damaging hail and wind may occur. ...South Central/Southeast Texas... Confluent high-level flow over the middle of the CONUS will maintain surface ridging across the Plains through the period. Latest model guidance suggests one or more weak disturbances will eject across northern Mexico into TX before advancing into the lower MS Valley. Each of these features should encourage convection, some of it may prove robust with severe possible. Early this morning, low-level confluence is focused across deep south TX as a weak synoptic front has eased into this portion of the state. Given the dominant surface ridging over the Plains, large-scale pattern does not appear favorable for appreciable surface cyclogenesis, even at low latitudes. In the mean, weak short-wave ridging will be noted across TX much of the period. Negligible height changes should ultimately lead to an inverted surface trough across south-central TX and low-level convergence may be somewhat limited along this weak wind shift. Greatest boundary-layer moisture will hold across the Coastal Plain, but forecast soundings do not reflect particularly steep surface-3km lapse rates due to relative warm layer around 2km. Even so, boundary-layer heating should contribute to appreciable SBCAPE, though surface parcels may remain slightly inhibited. Early in the period, LLJ will be focused across the Hill Country, but this feature will weaken by afternoon and remain weak the rest of the period. Scattered convection will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period within the favored warm advection corridor, much of it likely elevated in nature. This activity should propagate across much of TX, north of the wind shift during the daytime hours. With the surface pattern being somewhat nondescript, renewed robust convection may hold off until later in the afternoon when surface heating will be maximized across south-central TX. Forecast soundings certainly support organized updrafts and supercells are possible. Large hail is the primary concern with this activity. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are forecast across portions of south central and southeastern Texas Saturday through Saturday night. Damaging hail and wind may occur. ...South Central/Southeast Texas... Confluent high-level flow over the middle of the CONUS will maintain surface ridging across the Plains through the period. Latest model guidance suggests one or more weak disturbances will eject across northern Mexico into TX before advancing into the lower MS Valley. Each of these features should encourage convection, some of it may prove robust with severe possible. Early this morning, low-level confluence is focused across deep south TX as a weak synoptic front has eased into this portion of the state. Given the dominant surface ridging over the Plains, large-scale pattern does not appear favorable for appreciable surface cyclogenesis, even at low latitudes. In the mean, weak short-wave ridging will be noted across TX much of the period. Negligible height changes should ultimately lead to an inverted surface trough across south-central TX and low-level convergence may be somewhat limited along this weak wind shift. Greatest boundary-layer moisture will hold across the Coastal Plain, but forecast soundings do not reflect particularly steep surface-3km lapse rates due to relative warm layer around 2km. Even so, boundary-layer heating should contribute to appreciable SBCAPE, though surface parcels may remain slightly inhibited. Early in the period, LLJ will be focused across the Hill Country, but this feature will weaken by afternoon and remain weak the rest of the period. Scattered convection will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period within the favored warm advection corridor, much of it likely elevated in nature. This activity should propagate across much of TX, north of the wind shift during the daytime hours. With the surface pattern being somewhat nondescript, renewed robust convection may hold off until later in the afternoon when surface heating will be maximized across south-central TX. Forecast soundings certainly support organized updrafts and supercells are possible. Large hail is the primary concern with this activity. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are forecast across portions of south central and southeastern Texas Saturday through Saturday night. Damaging hail and wind may occur. ...South Central/Southeast Texas... Confluent high-level flow over the middle of the CONUS will maintain surface ridging across the Plains through the period. Latest model guidance suggests one or more weak disturbances will eject across northern Mexico into TX before advancing into the lower MS Valley. Each of these features should encourage convection, some of it may prove robust with severe possible. Early this morning, low-level confluence is focused across deep south TX as a weak synoptic front has eased into this portion of the state. Given the dominant surface ridging over the Plains, large-scale pattern does not appear favorable for appreciable surface cyclogenesis, even at low latitudes. In the mean, weak short-wave ridging will be noted across TX much of the period. Negligible height changes should ultimately lead to an inverted surface trough across south-central TX and low-level convergence may be somewhat limited along this weak wind shift. Greatest boundary-layer moisture will hold across the Coastal Plain, but forecast soundings do not reflect particularly steep surface-3km lapse rates due to relative warm layer around 2km. Even so, boundary-layer heating should contribute to appreciable SBCAPE, though surface parcels may remain slightly inhibited. Early in the period, LLJ will be focused across the Hill Country, but this feature will weaken by afternoon and remain weak the rest of the period. Scattered convection will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period within the favored warm advection corridor, much of it likely elevated in nature. This activity should propagate across much of TX, north of the wind shift during the daytime hours. With the surface pattern being somewhat nondescript, renewed robust convection may hold off until later in the afternoon when surface heating will be maximized across south-central TX. Forecast soundings certainly support organized updrafts and supercells are possible. Large hail is the primary concern with this activity. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are forecast across portions of south central and southeastern Texas Saturday through Saturday night. Damaging hail and wind may occur. ...South Central/Southeast Texas... Confluent high-level flow over the middle of the CONUS will maintain surface ridging across the Plains through the period. Latest model guidance suggests one or more weak disturbances will eject across northern Mexico into TX before advancing into the lower MS Valley. Each of these features should encourage convection, some of it may prove robust with severe possible. Early this morning, low-level confluence is focused across deep south TX as a weak synoptic front has eased into this portion of the state. Given the dominant surface ridging over the Plains, large-scale pattern does not appear favorable for appreciable surface cyclogenesis, even at low latitudes. In the mean, weak short-wave ridging will be noted across TX much of the period. Negligible height changes should ultimately lead to an inverted surface trough across south-central TX and low-level convergence may be somewhat limited along this weak wind shift. Greatest boundary-layer moisture will hold across the Coastal Plain, but forecast soundings do not reflect particularly steep surface-3km lapse rates due to relative warm layer around 2km. Even so, boundary-layer heating should contribute to appreciable SBCAPE, though surface parcels may remain slightly inhibited. Early in the period, LLJ will be focused across the Hill Country, but this feature will weaken by afternoon and remain weak the rest of the period. Scattered convection will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period within the favored warm advection corridor, much of it likely elevated in nature. This activity should propagate across much of TX, north of the wind shift during the daytime hours. With the surface pattern being somewhat nondescript, renewed robust convection may hold off until later in the afternoon when surface heating will be maximized across south-central TX. Forecast soundings certainly support organized updrafts and supercells are possible. Large hail is the primary concern with this activity. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are forecast across portions of south central and southeastern Texas Saturday through Saturday night. Damaging hail and wind may occur. ...South Central/Southeast Texas... Confluent high-level flow over the middle of the CONUS will maintain surface ridging across the Plains through the period. Latest model guidance suggests one or more weak disturbances will eject across northern Mexico into TX before advancing into the lower MS Valley. Each of these features should encourage convection, some of it may prove robust with severe possible. Early this morning, low-level confluence is focused across deep south TX as a weak synoptic front has eased into this portion of the state. Given the dominant surface ridging over the Plains, large-scale pattern does not appear favorable for appreciable surface cyclogenesis, even at low latitudes. In the mean, weak short-wave ridging will be noted across TX much of the period. Negligible height changes should ultimately lead to an inverted surface trough across south-central TX and low-level convergence may be somewhat limited along this weak wind shift. Greatest boundary-layer moisture will hold across the Coastal Plain, but forecast soundings do not reflect particularly steep surface-3km lapse rates due to relative warm layer around 2km. Even so, boundary-layer heating should contribute to appreciable SBCAPE, though surface parcels may remain slightly inhibited. Early in the period, LLJ will be focused across the Hill Country, but this feature will weaken by afternoon and remain weak the rest of the period. Scattered convection will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period within the favored warm advection corridor, much of it likely elevated in nature. This activity should propagate across much of TX, north of the wind shift during the daytime hours. With the surface pattern being somewhat nondescript, renewed robust convection may hold off until later in the afternoon when surface heating will be maximized across south-central TX. Forecast soundings certainly support organized updrafts and supercells are possible. Large hail is the primary concern with this activity. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are forecast across portions of south central and southeastern Texas Saturday through Saturday night. Damaging hail and wind may occur. ...South Central/Southeast Texas... Confluent high-level flow over the middle of the CONUS will maintain surface ridging across the Plains through the period. Latest model guidance suggests one or more weak disturbances will eject across northern Mexico into TX before advancing into the lower MS Valley. Each of these features should encourage convection, some of it may prove robust with severe possible. Early this morning, low-level confluence is focused across deep south TX as a weak synoptic front has eased into this portion of the state. Given the dominant surface ridging over the Plains, large-scale pattern does not appear favorable for appreciable surface cyclogenesis, even at low latitudes. In the mean, weak short-wave ridging will be noted across TX much of the period. Negligible height changes should ultimately lead to an inverted surface trough across south-central TX and low-level convergence may be somewhat limited along this weak wind shift. Greatest boundary-layer moisture will hold across the Coastal Plain, but forecast soundings do not reflect particularly steep surface-3km lapse rates due to relative warm layer around 2km. Even so, boundary-layer heating should contribute to appreciable SBCAPE, though surface parcels may remain slightly inhibited. Early in the period, LLJ will be focused across the Hill Country, but this feature will weaken by afternoon and remain weak the rest of the period. Scattered convection will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period within the favored warm advection corridor, much of it likely elevated in nature. This activity should propagate across much of TX, north of the wind shift during the daytime hours. With the surface pattern being somewhat nondescript, renewed robust convection may hold off until later in the afternoon when surface heating will be maximized across south-central TX. Forecast soundings certainly support organized updrafts and supercells are possible. Large hail is the primary concern with this activity. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are forecast across portions of south central and southeastern Texas Saturday through Saturday night. Damaging hail and wind may occur. ...South Central/Southeast Texas... Confluent high-level flow over the middle of the CONUS will maintain surface ridging across the Plains through the period. Latest model guidance suggests one or more weak disturbances will eject across northern Mexico into TX before advancing into the lower MS Valley. Each of these features should encourage convection, some of it may prove robust with severe possible. Early this morning, low-level confluence is focused across deep south TX as a weak synoptic front has eased into this portion of the state. Given the dominant surface ridging over the Plains, large-scale pattern does not appear favorable for appreciable surface cyclogenesis, even at low latitudes. In the mean, weak short-wave ridging will be noted across TX much of the period. Negligible height changes should ultimately lead to an inverted surface trough across south-central TX and low-level convergence may be somewhat limited along this weak wind shift. Greatest boundary-layer moisture will hold across the Coastal Plain, but forecast soundings do not reflect particularly steep surface-3km lapse rates due to relative warm layer around 2km. Even so, boundary-layer heating should contribute to appreciable SBCAPE, though surface parcels may remain slightly inhibited. Early in the period, LLJ will be focused across the Hill Country, but this feature will weaken by afternoon and remain weak the rest of the period. Scattered convection will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period within the favored warm advection corridor, much of it likely elevated in nature. This activity should propagate across much of TX, north of the wind shift during the daytime hours. With the surface pattern being somewhat nondescript, renewed robust convection may hold off until later in the afternoon when surface heating will be maximized across south-central TX. Forecast soundings certainly support organized updrafts and supercells are possible. Large hail is the primary concern with this activity. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are forecast across portions of south central and southeastern Texas Saturday through Saturday night. Damaging hail and wind may occur. ...South Central/Southeast Texas... Confluent high-level flow over the middle of the CONUS will maintain surface ridging across the Plains through the period. Latest model guidance suggests one or more weak disturbances will eject across northern Mexico into TX before advancing into the lower MS Valley. Each of these features should encourage convection, some of it may prove robust with severe possible. Early this morning, low-level confluence is focused across deep south TX as a weak synoptic front has eased into this portion of the state. Given the dominant surface ridging over the Plains, large-scale pattern does not appear favorable for appreciable surface cyclogenesis, even at low latitudes. In the mean, weak short-wave ridging will be noted across TX much of the period. Negligible height changes should ultimately lead to an inverted surface trough across south-central TX and low-level convergence may be somewhat limited along this weak wind shift. Greatest boundary-layer moisture will hold across the Coastal Plain, but forecast soundings do not reflect particularly steep surface-3km lapse rates due to relative warm layer around 2km. Even so, boundary-layer heating should contribute to appreciable SBCAPE, though surface parcels may remain slightly inhibited. Early in the period, LLJ will be focused across the Hill Country, but this feature will weaken by afternoon and remain weak the rest of the period. Scattered convection will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period within the favored warm advection corridor, much of it likely elevated in nature. This activity should propagate across much of TX, north of the wind shift during the daytime hours. With the surface pattern being somewhat nondescript, renewed robust convection may hold off until later in the afternoon when surface heating will be maximized across south-central TX. Forecast soundings certainly support organized updrafts and supercells are possible. Large hail is the primary concern with this activity. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are forecast across portions of south central and southeastern Texas Saturday through Saturday night. Damaging hail and wind may occur. ...South Central/Southeast Texas... Confluent high-level flow over the middle of the CONUS will maintain surface ridging across the Plains through the period. Latest model guidance suggests one or more weak disturbances will eject across northern Mexico into TX before advancing into the lower MS Valley. Each of these features should encourage convection, some of it may prove robust with severe possible. Early this morning, low-level confluence is focused across deep south TX as a weak synoptic front has eased into this portion of the state. Given the dominant surface ridging over the Plains, large-scale pattern does not appear favorable for appreciable surface cyclogenesis, even at low latitudes. In the mean, weak short-wave ridging will be noted across TX much of the period. Negligible height changes should ultimately lead to an inverted surface trough across south-central TX and low-level convergence may be somewhat limited along this weak wind shift. Greatest boundary-layer moisture will hold across the Coastal Plain, but forecast soundings do not reflect particularly steep surface-3km lapse rates due to relative warm layer around 2km. Even so, boundary-layer heating should contribute to appreciable SBCAPE, though surface parcels may remain slightly inhibited. Early in the period, LLJ will be focused across the Hill Country, but this feature will weaken by afternoon and remain weak the rest of the period. Scattered convection will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period within the favored warm advection corridor, much of it likely elevated in nature. This activity should propagate across much of TX, north of the wind shift during the daytime hours. With the surface pattern being somewhat nondescript, renewed robust convection may hold off until later in the afternoon when surface heating will be maximized across south-central TX. Forecast soundings certainly support organized updrafts and supercells are possible. Large hail is the primary concern with this activity. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are forecast across portions of south central and southeastern Texas Saturday through Saturday night. Damaging hail and wind may occur. ...South Central/Southeast Texas... Confluent high-level flow over the middle of the CONUS will maintain surface ridging across the Plains through the period. Latest model guidance suggests one or more weak disturbances will eject across northern Mexico into TX before advancing into the lower MS Valley. Each of these features should encourage convection, some of it may prove robust with severe possible. Early this morning, low-level confluence is focused across deep south TX as a weak synoptic front has eased into this portion of the state. Given the dominant surface ridging over the Plains, large-scale pattern does not appear favorable for appreciable surface cyclogenesis, even at low latitudes. In the mean, weak short-wave ridging will be noted across TX much of the period. Negligible height changes should ultimately lead to an inverted surface trough across south-central TX and low-level convergence may be somewhat limited along this weak wind shift. Greatest boundary-layer moisture will hold across the Coastal Plain, but forecast soundings do not reflect particularly steep surface-3km lapse rates due to relative warm layer around 2km. Even so, boundary-layer heating should contribute to appreciable SBCAPE, though surface parcels may remain slightly inhibited. Early in the period, LLJ will be focused across the Hill Country, but this feature will weaken by afternoon and remain weak the rest of the period. Scattered convection will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period within the favored warm advection corridor, much of it likely elevated in nature. This activity should propagate across much of TX, north of the wind shift during the daytime hours. With the surface pattern being somewhat nondescript, renewed robust convection may hold off until later in the afternoon when surface heating will be maximized across south-central TX. Forecast soundings certainly support organized updrafts and supercells are possible. Large hail is the primary concern with this activity. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will continue to push farther south on Sunday. Similar to Saturday, breezy northerly winds will continue in the Plains. With temperatures being cooler, RH reductions are even less certain. Furthermore, the areas where elevated conditions appear most likely have observed rainfall recently. While locally elevated conditions could occur in parts of Nebraska/Kansas, mitigating factors should preclude a greater fire weather threat. ..Wendt.. 03/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will continue to push farther south on Sunday. Similar to Saturday, breezy northerly winds will continue in the Plains. With temperatures being cooler, RH reductions are even less certain. Furthermore, the areas where elevated conditions appear most likely have observed rainfall recently. While locally elevated conditions could occur in parts of Nebraska/Kansas, mitigating factors should preclude a greater fire weather threat. ..Wendt.. 03/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will continue to push farther south on Sunday. Similar to Saturday, breezy northerly winds will continue in the Plains. With temperatures being cooler, RH reductions are even less certain. Furthermore, the areas where elevated conditions appear most likely have observed rainfall recently. While locally elevated conditions could occur in parts of Nebraska/Kansas, mitigating factors should preclude a greater fire weather threat. ..Wendt.. 03/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will continue to push farther south on Sunday. Similar to Saturday, breezy northerly winds will continue in the Plains. With temperatures being cooler, RH reductions are even less certain. Furthermore, the areas where elevated conditions appear most likely have observed rainfall recently. While locally elevated conditions could occur in parts of Nebraska/Kansas, mitigating factors should preclude a greater fire weather threat. ..Wendt.. 03/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will continue to push farther south on Sunday. Similar to Saturday, breezy northerly winds will continue in the Plains. With temperatures being cooler, RH reductions are even less certain. Furthermore, the areas where elevated conditions appear most likely have observed rainfall recently. While locally elevated conditions could occur in parts of Nebraska/Kansas, mitigating factors should preclude a greater fire weather threat. ..Wendt.. 03/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more