Severe Storms

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with marginally severe gusts, will be possible across parts of the central Gulf Coast region on Thursday. ...Central Gulf Coast... Southwest flow at mid-levels will be in place on Thursday across much of the eastern half of the nation, as a shortwave trough moves northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located across the central Gulf Coast states, where surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the 60s F. A cold front is forecast to advance eastward through the lower Mississippi Valley, with thunderstorms increasing in coverage during the morning and afternoon. Model solutions suggest that a relatively disorganized line of storms could develop near the front. Ahead of the line, a small area of weak instability is forecast from southeast Louisiana into far southern Mississippi. Thunderstorms that move northeastward through this unstable airmass could develop an isolated severe threat. Although deep-layer shear may be strong enough for a low-end wind-damage threat, poor low to mid-level lapse rates should keep any threat marginal and confined to a small area. ..Broyles.. 01/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, some with potential to be marginally severe, will be possible on Wednesday from near the Texas Coast eastward to the central Gulf Coast. ...Western and Central Gulf Coast... Southwest flow at mid-levels will remain in place across much of the central and eastern U.S. on Wednesday, as an upper-level trough over northern Mexico approaches the southern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place from the Texas coast extending east-northeastward into the central Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain. Thunderstorms are forecast to increase in coverage, expanding eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley by early afternoon. Although surface dewpoints will likely be in the 60s F across much of the moist airmass, low to mid-level lapse rates are generally forecast to remain in the 6.0 to 6.5 C/km range. In addition, the stronger large-scale ascent, associated with the upper-level trough, is forecast to remain well to the west. As a result, the potential for severe convection should remain isolated. A few marginally severe gusts will be possible, with the threat concentrated in the afternoon when temperatures will be the warmest. ..Broyles.. 01/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, some with potential to be marginally severe, will be possible on Wednesday from near the Texas Coast eastward to the central Gulf Coast. ...Western and Central Gulf Coast... Southwest flow at mid-levels will remain in place across much of the central and eastern U.S. on Wednesday, as an upper-level trough over northern Mexico approaches the southern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place from the Texas coast extending east-northeastward into the central Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain. Thunderstorms are forecast to increase in coverage, expanding eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley by early afternoon. Although surface dewpoints will likely be in the 60s F across much of the moist airmass, low to mid-level lapse rates are generally forecast to remain in the 6.0 to 6.5 C/km range. In addition, the stronger large-scale ascent, associated with the upper-level trough, is forecast to remain well to the west. As a result, the potential for severe convection should remain isolated. A few marginally severe gusts will be possible, with the threat concentrated in the afternoon when temperatures will be the warmest. ..Broyles.. 01/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, some with potential to be marginally severe, will be possible on Wednesday from near the Texas Coast eastward to the central Gulf Coast. ...Western and Central Gulf Coast... Southwest flow at mid-levels will remain in place across much of the central and eastern U.S. on Wednesday, as an upper-level trough over northern Mexico approaches the southern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place from the Texas coast extending east-northeastward into the central Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain. Thunderstorms are forecast to increase in coverage, expanding eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley by early afternoon. Although surface dewpoints will likely be in the 60s F across much of the moist airmass, low to mid-level lapse rates are generally forecast to remain in the 6.0 to 6.5 C/km range. In addition, the stronger large-scale ascent, associated with the upper-level trough, is forecast to remain well to the west. As a result, the potential for severe convection should remain isolated. A few marginally severe gusts will be possible, with the threat concentrated in the afternoon when temperatures will be the warmest. ..Broyles.. 01/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, some with potential to be marginally severe, will be possible on Wednesday from near the Texas Coast eastward to the central Gulf Coast. ...Western and Central Gulf Coast... Southwest flow at mid-levels will remain in place across much of the central and eastern U.S. on Wednesday, as an upper-level trough over northern Mexico approaches the southern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place from the Texas coast extending east-northeastward into the central Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain. Thunderstorms are forecast to increase in coverage, expanding eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley by early afternoon. Although surface dewpoints will likely be in the 60s F across much of the moist airmass, low to mid-level lapse rates are generally forecast to remain in the 6.0 to 6.5 C/km range. In addition, the stronger large-scale ascent, associated with the upper-level trough, is forecast to remain well to the west. As a result, the potential for severe convection should remain isolated. A few marginally severe gusts will be possible, with the threat concentrated in the afternoon when temperatures will be the warmest. ..Broyles.. 01/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, some with potential to be marginally severe, will be possible on Wednesday from near the Texas Coast eastward to the central Gulf Coast. ...Western and Central Gulf Coast... Southwest flow at mid-levels will remain in place across much of the central and eastern U.S. on Wednesday, as an upper-level trough over northern Mexico approaches the southern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place from the Texas coast extending east-northeastward into the central Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain. Thunderstorms are forecast to increase in coverage, expanding eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley by early afternoon. Although surface dewpoints will likely be in the 60s F across much of the moist airmass, low to mid-level lapse rates are generally forecast to remain in the 6.0 to 6.5 C/km range. In addition, the stronger large-scale ascent, associated with the upper-level trough, is forecast to remain well to the west. As a result, the potential for severe convection should remain isolated. A few marginally severe gusts will be possible, with the threat concentrated in the afternoon when temperatures will be the warmest. ..Broyles.. 01/23/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Disturbances rotating through the trough across the western/central US will bring continued chances for precipitation across the Pacific Northwest and central/eastern US. Given the cool and moist conditions across these regions, along with snow pack in place across the northern US, wildfire spread potential will remain low on Wednesday. ..Thornton.. 01/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Disturbances rotating through the trough across the western/central US will bring continued chances for precipitation across the Pacific Northwest and central/eastern US. Given the cool and moist conditions across these regions, along with snow pack in place across the northern US, wildfire spread potential will remain low on Wednesday. ..Thornton.. 01/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Disturbances rotating through the trough across the western/central US will bring continued chances for precipitation across the Pacific Northwest and central/eastern US. Given the cool and moist conditions across these regions, along with snow pack in place across the northern US, wildfire spread potential will remain low on Wednesday. ..Thornton.. 01/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Disturbances rotating through the trough across the western/central US will bring continued chances for precipitation across the Pacific Northwest and central/eastern US. Given the cool and moist conditions across these regions, along with snow pack in place across the northern US, wildfire spread potential will remain low on Wednesday. ..Thornton.. 01/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Disturbances rotating through the trough across the western/central US will bring continued chances for precipitation across the Pacific Northwest and central/eastern US. Given the cool and moist conditions across these regions, along with snow pack in place across the northern US, wildfire spread potential will remain low on Wednesday. ..Thornton.. 01/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A trough across the western/central US today will bring continued cool and moist conditions today, extending into the eastern US by late Tuesday. Given the cool and moist conditions across these regions, along with snow pack in place across the northern US, wildfire spread potential will remain low on Tuesday. ..Thornton.. 01/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A trough across the western/central US today will bring continued cool and moist conditions today, extending into the eastern US by late Tuesday. Given the cool and moist conditions across these regions, along with snow pack in place across the northern US, wildfire spread potential will remain low on Tuesday. ..Thornton.. 01/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A trough across the western/central US today will bring continued cool and moist conditions today, extending into the eastern US by late Tuesday. Given the cool and moist conditions across these regions, along with snow pack in place across the northern US, wildfire spread potential will remain low on Tuesday. ..Thornton.. 01/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A trough across the western/central US today will bring continued cool and moist conditions today, extending into the eastern US by late Tuesday. Given the cool and moist conditions across these regions, along with snow pack in place across the northern US, wildfire spread potential will remain low on Tuesday. ..Thornton.. 01/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A trough across the western/central US today will bring continued cool and moist conditions today, extending into the eastern US by late Tuesday. Given the cool and moist conditions across these regions, along with snow pack in place across the northern US, wildfire spread potential will remain low on Tuesday. ..Thornton.. 01/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight from south Texas into western Louisiana. ...TX/LA... Very active southern stream will continue into mid week with the primary core of stronger midlevel flow forecast to extend across northern Mexico before rotating across TX into the lower OH Valley. This flow regime will result in negligible height changes across south TX into LA, but deep southwesterly flow will encourage a slow northward advance of modified Gulf air into Coastal TX/LA. Lower 60s surface dew points have returned to coastal TX as the main surface boundary is now oriented from near LRD-north of VCT-IAH. This wind shift is expected to advance north across east TX as a weak surface low tracks into southeast OK Tuesday night. Even so, any appreciable airmass destabilization is expected to hold across coastal TX into western LA, due in part to substantial elevated convection from warm advection. Forecast soundings suggest surface-based buoyancy is possible where dew points are able to rise above 67F, albeit weak due to poor low-level lapse rates. With time midlevel lapse rates should steepen across south-central TX in response to the approaching trough. This should aid instability such that some robustness is possible with convection that evolves across this region. Several bouts of convection will be noted, modulated in part by the LLJ and warm advection. At this time it appears overall severe threat should remain too isolated to warrant a SLGT Risk. However, some threat for wind/hail does exist with some of this activity, and a brief tornado can not be ruled out. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight from south Texas into western Louisiana. ...TX/LA... Very active southern stream will continue into mid week with the primary core of stronger midlevel flow forecast to extend across northern Mexico before rotating across TX into the lower OH Valley. This flow regime will result in negligible height changes across south TX into LA, but deep southwesterly flow will encourage a slow northward advance of modified Gulf air into Coastal TX/LA. Lower 60s surface dew points have returned to coastal TX as the main surface boundary is now oriented from near LRD-north of VCT-IAH. This wind shift is expected to advance north across east TX as a weak surface low tracks into southeast OK Tuesday night. Even so, any appreciable airmass destabilization is expected to hold across coastal TX into western LA, due in part to substantial elevated convection from warm advection. Forecast soundings suggest surface-based buoyancy is possible where dew points are able to rise above 67F, albeit weak due to poor low-level lapse rates. With time midlevel lapse rates should steepen across south-central TX in response to the approaching trough. This should aid instability such that some robustness is possible with convection that evolves across this region. Several bouts of convection will be noted, modulated in part by the LLJ and warm advection. At this time it appears overall severe threat should remain too isolated to warrant a SLGT Risk. However, some threat for wind/hail does exist with some of this activity, and a brief tornado can not be ruled out. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight from south Texas into western Louisiana. ...TX/LA... Very active southern stream will continue into mid week with the primary core of stronger midlevel flow forecast to extend across northern Mexico before rotating across TX into the lower OH Valley. This flow regime will result in negligible height changes across south TX into LA, but deep southwesterly flow will encourage a slow northward advance of modified Gulf air into Coastal TX/LA. Lower 60s surface dew points have returned to coastal TX as the main surface boundary is now oriented from near LRD-north of VCT-IAH. This wind shift is expected to advance north across east TX as a weak surface low tracks into southeast OK Tuesday night. Even so, any appreciable airmass destabilization is expected to hold across coastal TX into western LA, due in part to substantial elevated convection from warm advection. Forecast soundings suggest surface-based buoyancy is possible where dew points are able to rise above 67F, albeit weak due to poor low-level lapse rates. With time midlevel lapse rates should steepen across south-central TX in response to the approaching trough. This should aid instability such that some robustness is possible with convection that evolves across this region. Several bouts of convection will be noted, modulated in part by the LLJ and warm advection. At this time it appears overall severe threat should remain too isolated to warrant a SLGT Risk. However, some threat for wind/hail does exist with some of this activity, and a brief tornado can not be ruled out. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight from south Texas into western Louisiana. ...TX/LA... Very active southern stream will continue into mid week with the primary core of stronger midlevel flow forecast to extend across northern Mexico before rotating across TX into the lower OH Valley. This flow regime will result in negligible height changes across south TX into LA, but deep southwesterly flow will encourage a slow northward advance of modified Gulf air into Coastal TX/LA. Lower 60s surface dew points have returned to coastal TX as the main surface boundary is now oriented from near LRD-north of VCT-IAH. This wind shift is expected to advance north across east TX as a weak surface low tracks into southeast OK Tuesday night. Even so, any appreciable airmass destabilization is expected to hold across coastal TX into western LA, due in part to substantial elevated convection from warm advection. Forecast soundings suggest surface-based buoyancy is possible where dew points are able to rise above 67F, albeit weak due to poor low-level lapse rates. With time midlevel lapse rates should steepen across south-central TX in response to the approaching trough. This should aid instability such that some robustness is possible with convection that evolves across this region. Several bouts of convection will be noted, modulated in part by the LLJ and warm advection. At this time it appears overall severe threat should remain too isolated to warrant a SLGT Risk. However, some threat for wind/hail does exist with some of this activity, and a brief tornado can not be ruled out. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/23/2024 Read more