Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... During the day on Sunday, mid-level pattern will be characterized by a digging longwave trough over the central and eastern US with a cutoff low in the southwest US. This will promote cool, northerly surface flow across much of the central US and precipitation across parts of the southern High Plains. As such, aside from perhaps some locally Elevated fire risk in parts of southwest Kansas and northwest Oklahoma, fire concerns are expected to be minimal. ..Supinie.. 03/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... During the day on Sunday, mid-level pattern will be characterized by a digging longwave trough over the central and eastern US with a cutoff low in the southwest US. This will promote cool, northerly surface flow across much of the central US and precipitation across parts of the southern High Plains. As such, aside from perhaps some locally Elevated fire risk in parts of southwest Kansas and northwest Oklahoma, fire concerns are expected to be minimal. ..Supinie.. 03/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... During the day on Sunday, mid-level pattern will be characterized by a digging longwave trough over the central and eastern US with a cutoff low in the southwest US. This will promote cool, northerly surface flow across much of the central US and precipitation across parts of the southern High Plains. As such, aside from perhaps some locally Elevated fire risk in parts of southwest Kansas and northwest Oklahoma, fire concerns are expected to be minimal. ..Supinie.. 03/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... During the day on Sunday, mid-level pattern will be characterized by a digging longwave trough over the central and eastern US with a cutoff low in the southwest US. This will promote cool, northerly surface flow across much of the central US and precipitation across parts of the southern High Plains. As such, aside from perhaps some locally Elevated fire risk in parts of southwest Kansas and northwest Oklahoma, fire concerns are expected to be minimal. ..Supinie.. 03/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... During the day on Sunday, mid-level pattern will be characterized by a digging longwave trough over the central and eastern US with a cutoff low in the southwest US. This will promote cool, northerly surface flow across much of the central US and precipitation across parts of the southern High Plains. As such, aside from perhaps some locally Elevated fire risk in parts of southwest Kansas and northwest Oklahoma, fire concerns are expected to be minimal. ..Supinie.. 03/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... During the day on Sunday, mid-level pattern will be characterized by a digging longwave trough over the central and eastern US with a cutoff low in the southwest US. This will promote cool, northerly surface flow across much of the central US and precipitation across parts of the southern High Plains. As such, aside from perhaps some locally Elevated fire risk in parts of southwest Kansas and northwest Oklahoma, fire concerns are expected to be minimal. ..Supinie.. 03/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... During the day on Sunday, mid-level pattern will be characterized by a digging longwave trough over the central and eastern US with a cutoff low in the southwest US. This will promote cool, northerly surface flow across much of the central US and precipitation across parts of the southern High Plains. As such, aside from perhaps some locally Elevated fire risk in parts of southwest Kansas and northwest Oklahoma, fire concerns are expected to be minimal. ..Supinie.. 03/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0056 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 56 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NW LRD TO 45 S JCT. ..DEAN..03/17/24 ATTN...WFO...EWX...CRP...BRO... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 56 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC013-025-047-127-131-163-247-249-273-283-297-311-325-355-409- 427-463-479-505-507-170640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATASCOSA BEE BROOKS DIMMIT DUVAL FRIO JIM HOGG JIM WELLS KLEBERG LA SALLE LIVE OAK MCMULLEN MEDINA NUECES SAN PATRICIO STARR UVALDE WEBB ZAPATA ZAVALA GMZ231-232-170640- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE BAFFIN BAY AND UPPER LAGUNA MADRE CORPUS CHRISTI AND NUECES BAYS Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may move inland off the Gulf of Mexico into portions of the northern and central Florida peninsula early Monday, perhaps accompanied by some risk of severe weather. ...Synopsis... Split flow emanating from the western mid-latitude Pacific likely will remain amplified through this period, with a new high beginning to form within building ridging, near or southwest of the Gulf of Alaska. Downstream, models still indicate that the initially prominent high over Pacific Northwest vicinity will gradually become more suppressed, but blocking will be maintained, with the persistent low over the Southwest remaining quasi-stationary or perhaps retrograding a bit to the west of the lower Colorado Valley. To the east of this regime, a vigorous short wave trough is forecast to continue digging southeast of the lower Missouri Valley, through the south Atlantic coast vicinity, before turning eastward and offshore by late Monday night. As this occurs, larger-scale mid/upper troughing centered near the Atlantic Seaboard may assume a neutral tilt, with increasingly divergent downstream flow perhaps supporting strengthening surface cyclogenesis well offshore over the western Atlantic. Initial frontal wave development may commence closer to the coast by early Monday, with a significant trailing cold front advancing southeastward in its wake, through much of the northern Gulf Basin and Florida by 12Z Tuesday. ...Florida... In advance of the cold front, models still indicate that low-level flow will veer to an increasingly westerly component while continuing to strengthen (up to 30-40+ kt around 850 mb) during the day across northern into central portions of the peninsula. It appears unlikely that the Atlantic sea-breeze will be maintained near coastal areas through peak afternoon destabilization, except perhaps across southeastern Florida, where forecast soundings (particularly the NAM) suggest that warm layers in mid-levels will contribute to strong inhibition. Due to spread concerning shorter wavelength developments within the large-scale flow, depictions of potential convective evolution into and through this period remain varied. However, while the potential for vigorous thunderstorms to develop, or be maintained, across interior and eastern portions of the peninsula appears low, it might not be out of the question that an organized cluster could spread off the northeastern Gulf into northern and west central portions of the peninsula early in the period, accompanied by some risk for damaging wind gusts before weakening. ..Kerr.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may move inland off the Gulf of Mexico into portions of the northern and central Florida peninsula early Monday, perhaps accompanied by some risk of severe weather. ...Synopsis... Split flow emanating from the western mid-latitude Pacific likely will remain amplified through this period, with a new high beginning to form within building ridging, near or southwest of the Gulf of Alaska. Downstream, models still indicate that the initially prominent high over Pacific Northwest vicinity will gradually become more suppressed, but blocking will be maintained, with the persistent low over the Southwest remaining quasi-stationary or perhaps retrograding a bit to the west of the lower Colorado Valley. To the east of this regime, a vigorous short wave trough is forecast to continue digging southeast of the lower Missouri Valley, through the south Atlantic coast vicinity, before turning eastward and offshore by late Monday night. As this occurs, larger-scale mid/upper troughing centered near the Atlantic Seaboard may assume a neutral tilt, with increasingly divergent downstream flow perhaps supporting strengthening surface cyclogenesis well offshore over the western Atlantic. Initial frontal wave development may commence closer to the coast by early Monday, with a significant trailing cold front advancing southeastward in its wake, through much of the northern Gulf Basin and Florida by 12Z Tuesday. ...Florida... In advance of the cold front, models still indicate that low-level flow will veer to an increasingly westerly component while continuing to strengthen (up to 30-40+ kt around 850 mb) during the day across northern into central portions of the peninsula. It appears unlikely that the Atlantic sea-breeze will be maintained near coastal areas through peak afternoon destabilization, except perhaps across southeastern Florida, where forecast soundings (particularly the NAM) suggest that warm layers in mid-levels will contribute to strong inhibition. Due to spread concerning shorter wavelength developments within the large-scale flow, depictions of potential convective evolution into and through this period remain varied. However, while the potential for vigorous thunderstorms to develop, or be maintained, across interior and eastern portions of the peninsula appears low, it might not be out of the question that an organized cluster could spread off the northeastern Gulf into northern and west central portions of the peninsula early in the period, accompanied by some risk for damaging wind gusts before weakening. ..Kerr.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may move inland off the Gulf of Mexico into portions of the northern and central Florida peninsula early Monday, perhaps accompanied by some risk of severe weather. ...Synopsis... Split flow emanating from the western mid-latitude Pacific likely will remain amplified through this period, with a new high beginning to form within building ridging, near or southwest of the Gulf of Alaska. Downstream, models still indicate that the initially prominent high over Pacific Northwest vicinity will gradually become more suppressed, but blocking will be maintained, with the persistent low over the Southwest remaining quasi-stationary or perhaps retrograding a bit to the west of the lower Colorado Valley. To the east of this regime, a vigorous short wave trough is forecast to continue digging southeast of the lower Missouri Valley, through the south Atlantic coast vicinity, before turning eastward and offshore by late Monday night. As this occurs, larger-scale mid/upper troughing centered near the Atlantic Seaboard may assume a neutral tilt, with increasingly divergent downstream flow perhaps supporting strengthening surface cyclogenesis well offshore over the western Atlantic. Initial frontal wave development may commence closer to the coast by early Monday, with a significant trailing cold front advancing southeastward in its wake, through much of the northern Gulf Basin and Florida by 12Z Tuesday. ...Florida... In advance of the cold front, models still indicate that low-level flow will veer to an increasingly westerly component while continuing to strengthen (up to 30-40+ kt around 850 mb) during the day across northern into central portions of the peninsula. It appears unlikely that the Atlantic sea-breeze will be maintained near coastal areas through peak afternoon destabilization, except perhaps across southeastern Florida, where forecast soundings (particularly the NAM) suggest that warm layers in mid-levels will contribute to strong inhibition. Due to spread concerning shorter wavelength developments within the large-scale flow, depictions of potential convective evolution into and through this period remain varied. However, while the potential for vigorous thunderstorms to develop, or be maintained, across interior and eastern portions of the peninsula appears low, it might not be out of the question that an organized cluster could spread off the northeastern Gulf into northern and west central portions of the peninsula early in the period, accompanied by some risk for damaging wind gusts before weakening. ..Kerr.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may move inland off the Gulf of Mexico into portions of the northern and central Florida peninsula early Monday, perhaps accompanied by some risk of severe weather. ...Synopsis... Split flow emanating from the western mid-latitude Pacific likely will remain amplified through this period, with a new high beginning to form within building ridging, near or southwest of the Gulf of Alaska. Downstream, models still indicate that the initially prominent high over Pacific Northwest vicinity will gradually become more suppressed, but blocking will be maintained, with the persistent low over the Southwest remaining quasi-stationary or perhaps retrograding a bit to the west of the lower Colorado Valley. To the east of this regime, a vigorous short wave trough is forecast to continue digging southeast of the lower Missouri Valley, through the south Atlantic coast vicinity, before turning eastward and offshore by late Monday night. As this occurs, larger-scale mid/upper troughing centered near the Atlantic Seaboard may assume a neutral tilt, with increasingly divergent downstream flow perhaps supporting strengthening surface cyclogenesis well offshore over the western Atlantic. Initial frontal wave development may commence closer to the coast by early Monday, with a significant trailing cold front advancing southeastward in its wake, through much of the northern Gulf Basin and Florida by 12Z Tuesday. ...Florida... In advance of the cold front, models still indicate that low-level flow will veer to an increasingly westerly component while continuing to strengthen (up to 30-40+ kt around 850 mb) during the day across northern into central portions of the peninsula. It appears unlikely that the Atlantic sea-breeze will be maintained near coastal areas through peak afternoon destabilization, except perhaps across southeastern Florida, where forecast soundings (particularly the NAM) suggest that warm layers in mid-levels will contribute to strong inhibition. Due to spread concerning shorter wavelength developments within the large-scale flow, depictions of potential convective evolution into and through this period remain varied. However, while the potential for vigorous thunderstorms to develop, or be maintained, across interior and eastern portions of the peninsula appears low, it might not be out of the question that an organized cluster could spread off the northeastern Gulf into northern and west central portions of the peninsula early in the period, accompanied by some risk for damaging wind gusts before weakening. ..Kerr.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may move inland off the Gulf of Mexico into portions of the northern and central Florida peninsula early Monday, perhaps accompanied by some risk of severe weather. ...Synopsis... Split flow emanating from the western mid-latitude Pacific likely will remain amplified through this period, with a new high beginning to form within building ridging, near or southwest of the Gulf of Alaska. Downstream, models still indicate that the initially prominent high over Pacific Northwest vicinity will gradually become more suppressed, but blocking will be maintained, with the persistent low over the Southwest remaining quasi-stationary or perhaps retrograding a bit to the west of the lower Colorado Valley. To the east of this regime, a vigorous short wave trough is forecast to continue digging southeast of the lower Missouri Valley, through the south Atlantic coast vicinity, before turning eastward and offshore by late Monday night. As this occurs, larger-scale mid/upper troughing centered near the Atlantic Seaboard may assume a neutral tilt, with increasingly divergent downstream flow perhaps supporting strengthening surface cyclogenesis well offshore over the western Atlantic. Initial frontal wave development may commence closer to the coast by early Monday, with a significant trailing cold front advancing southeastward in its wake, through much of the northern Gulf Basin and Florida by 12Z Tuesday. ...Florida... In advance of the cold front, models still indicate that low-level flow will veer to an increasingly westerly component while continuing to strengthen (up to 30-40+ kt around 850 mb) during the day across northern into central portions of the peninsula. It appears unlikely that the Atlantic sea-breeze will be maintained near coastal areas through peak afternoon destabilization, except perhaps across southeastern Florida, where forecast soundings (particularly the NAM) suggest that warm layers in mid-levels will contribute to strong inhibition. Due to spread concerning shorter wavelength developments within the large-scale flow, depictions of potential convective evolution into and through this period remain varied. However, while the potential for vigorous thunderstorms to develop, or be maintained, across interior and eastern portions of the peninsula appears low, it might not be out of the question that an organized cluster could spread off the northeastern Gulf into northern and west central portions of the peninsula early in the period, accompanied by some risk for damaging wind gusts before weakening. ..Kerr.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may move inland off the Gulf of Mexico into portions of the northern and central Florida peninsula early Monday, perhaps accompanied by some risk of severe weather. ...Synopsis... Split flow emanating from the western mid-latitude Pacific likely will remain amplified through this period, with a new high beginning to form within building ridging, near or southwest of the Gulf of Alaska. Downstream, models still indicate that the initially prominent high over Pacific Northwest vicinity will gradually become more suppressed, but blocking will be maintained, with the persistent low over the Southwest remaining quasi-stationary or perhaps retrograding a bit to the west of the lower Colorado Valley. To the east of this regime, a vigorous short wave trough is forecast to continue digging southeast of the lower Missouri Valley, through the south Atlantic coast vicinity, before turning eastward and offshore by late Monday night. As this occurs, larger-scale mid/upper troughing centered near the Atlantic Seaboard may assume a neutral tilt, with increasingly divergent downstream flow perhaps supporting strengthening surface cyclogenesis well offshore over the western Atlantic. Initial frontal wave development may commence closer to the coast by early Monday, with a significant trailing cold front advancing southeastward in its wake, through much of the northern Gulf Basin and Florida by 12Z Tuesday. ...Florida... In advance of the cold front, models still indicate that low-level flow will veer to an increasingly westerly component while continuing to strengthen (up to 30-40+ kt around 850 mb) during the day across northern into central portions of the peninsula. It appears unlikely that the Atlantic sea-breeze will be maintained near coastal areas through peak afternoon destabilization, except perhaps across southeastern Florida, where forecast soundings (particularly the NAM) suggest that warm layers in mid-levels will contribute to strong inhibition. Due to spread concerning shorter wavelength developments within the large-scale flow, depictions of potential convective evolution into and through this period remain varied. However, while the potential for vigorous thunderstorms to develop, or be maintained, across interior and eastern portions of the peninsula appears low, it might not be out of the question that an organized cluster could spread off the northeastern Gulf into northern and west central portions of the peninsula early in the period, accompanied by some risk for damaging wind gusts before weakening. ..Kerr.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may move inland off the Gulf of Mexico into portions of the northern and central Florida peninsula early Monday, perhaps accompanied by some risk of severe weather. ...Synopsis... Split flow emanating from the western mid-latitude Pacific likely will remain amplified through this period, with a new high beginning to form within building ridging, near or southwest of the Gulf of Alaska. Downstream, models still indicate that the initially prominent high over Pacific Northwest vicinity will gradually become more suppressed, but blocking will be maintained, with the persistent low over the Southwest remaining quasi-stationary or perhaps retrograding a bit to the west of the lower Colorado Valley. To the east of this regime, a vigorous short wave trough is forecast to continue digging southeast of the lower Missouri Valley, through the south Atlantic coast vicinity, before turning eastward and offshore by late Monday night. As this occurs, larger-scale mid/upper troughing centered near the Atlantic Seaboard may assume a neutral tilt, with increasingly divergent downstream flow perhaps supporting strengthening surface cyclogenesis well offshore over the western Atlantic. Initial frontal wave development may commence closer to the coast by early Monday, with a significant trailing cold front advancing southeastward in its wake, through much of the northern Gulf Basin and Florida by 12Z Tuesday. ...Florida... In advance of the cold front, models still indicate that low-level flow will veer to an increasingly westerly component while continuing to strengthen (up to 30-40+ kt around 850 mb) during the day across northern into central portions of the peninsula. It appears unlikely that the Atlantic sea-breeze will be maintained near coastal areas through peak afternoon destabilization, except perhaps across southeastern Florida, where forecast soundings (particularly the NAM) suggest that warm layers in mid-levels will contribute to strong inhibition. Due to spread concerning shorter wavelength developments within the large-scale flow, depictions of potential convective evolution into and through this period remain varied. However, while the potential for vigorous thunderstorms to develop, or be maintained, across interior and eastern portions of the peninsula appears low, it might not be out of the question that an organized cluster could spread off the northeastern Gulf into northern and west central portions of the peninsula early in the period, accompanied by some risk for damaging wind gusts before weakening. ..Kerr.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may move inland off the Gulf of Mexico into portions of the northern and central Florida peninsula early Monday, perhaps accompanied by some risk of severe weather. ...Synopsis... Split flow emanating from the western mid-latitude Pacific likely will remain amplified through this period, with a new high beginning to form within building ridging, near or southwest of the Gulf of Alaska. Downstream, models still indicate that the initially prominent high over Pacific Northwest vicinity will gradually become more suppressed, but blocking will be maintained, with the persistent low over the Southwest remaining quasi-stationary or perhaps retrograding a bit to the west of the lower Colorado Valley. To the east of this regime, a vigorous short wave trough is forecast to continue digging southeast of the lower Missouri Valley, through the south Atlantic coast vicinity, before turning eastward and offshore by late Monday night. As this occurs, larger-scale mid/upper troughing centered near the Atlantic Seaboard may assume a neutral tilt, with increasingly divergent downstream flow perhaps supporting strengthening surface cyclogenesis well offshore over the western Atlantic. Initial frontal wave development may commence closer to the coast by early Monday, with a significant trailing cold front advancing southeastward in its wake, through much of the northern Gulf Basin and Florida by 12Z Tuesday. ...Florida... In advance of the cold front, models still indicate that low-level flow will veer to an increasingly westerly component while continuing to strengthen (up to 30-40+ kt around 850 mb) during the day across northern into central portions of the peninsula. It appears unlikely that the Atlantic sea-breeze will be maintained near coastal areas through peak afternoon destabilization, except perhaps across southeastern Florida, where forecast soundings (particularly the NAM) suggest that warm layers in mid-levels will contribute to strong inhibition. Due to spread concerning shorter wavelength developments within the large-scale flow, depictions of potential convective evolution into and through this period remain varied. However, while the potential for vigorous thunderstorms to develop, or be maintained, across interior and eastern portions of the peninsula appears low, it might not be out of the question that an organized cluster could spread off the northeastern Gulf into northern and west central portions of the peninsula early in the period, accompanied by some risk for damaging wind gusts before weakening. ..Kerr.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may move inland off the Gulf of Mexico into portions of the northern and central Florida peninsula early Monday, perhaps accompanied by some risk of severe weather. ...Synopsis... Split flow emanating from the western mid-latitude Pacific likely will remain amplified through this period, with a new high beginning to form within building ridging, near or southwest of the Gulf of Alaska. Downstream, models still indicate that the initially prominent high over Pacific Northwest vicinity will gradually become more suppressed, but blocking will be maintained, with the persistent low over the Southwest remaining quasi-stationary or perhaps retrograding a bit to the west of the lower Colorado Valley. To the east of this regime, a vigorous short wave trough is forecast to continue digging southeast of the lower Missouri Valley, through the south Atlantic coast vicinity, before turning eastward and offshore by late Monday night. As this occurs, larger-scale mid/upper troughing centered near the Atlantic Seaboard may assume a neutral tilt, with increasingly divergent downstream flow perhaps supporting strengthening surface cyclogenesis well offshore over the western Atlantic. Initial frontal wave development may commence closer to the coast by early Monday, with a significant trailing cold front advancing southeastward in its wake, through much of the northern Gulf Basin and Florida by 12Z Tuesday. ...Florida... In advance of the cold front, models still indicate that low-level flow will veer to an increasingly westerly component while continuing to strengthen (up to 30-40+ kt around 850 mb) during the day across northern into central portions of the peninsula. It appears unlikely that the Atlantic sea-breeze will be maintained near coastal areas through peak afternoon destabilization, except perhaps across southeastern Florida, where forecast soundings (particularly the NAM) suggest that warm layers in mid-levels will contribute to strong inhibition. Due to spread concerning shorter wavelength developments within the large-scale flow, depictions of potential convective evolution into and through this period remain varied. However, while the potential for vigorous thunderstorms to develop, or be maintained, across interior and eastern portions of the peninsula appears low, it might not be out of the question that an organized cluster could spread off the northeastern Gulf into northern and west central portions of the peninsula early in the period, accompanied by some risk for damaging wind gusts before weakening. ..Kerr.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may move inland off the Gulf of Mexico into portions of the northern and central Florida peninsula early Monday, perhaps accompanied by some risk of severe weather. ...Synopsis... Split flow emanating from the western mid-latitude Pacific likely will remain amplified through this period, with a new high beginning to form within building ridging, near or southwest of the Gulf of Alaska. Downstream, models still indicate that the initially prominent high over Pacific Northwest vicinity will gradually become more suppressed, but blocking will be maintained, with the persistent low over the Southwest remaining quasi-stationary or perhaps retrograding a bit to the west of the lower Colorado Valley. To the east of this regime, a vigorous short wave trough is forecast to continue digging southeast of the lower Missouri Valley, through the south Atlantic coast vicinity, before turning eastward and offshore by late Monday night. As this occurs, larger-scale mid/upper troughing centered near the Atlantic Seaboard may assume a neutral tilt, with increasingly divergent downstream flow perhaps supporting strengthening surface cyclogenesis well offshore over the western Atlantic. Initial frontal wave development may commence closer to the coast by early Monday, with a significant trailing cold front advancing southeastward in its wake, through much of the northern Gulf Basin and Florida by 12Z Tuesday. ...Florida... In advance of the cold front, models still indicate that low-level flow will veer to an increasingly westerly component while continuing to strengthen (up to 30-40+ kt around 850 mb) during the day across northern into central portions of the peninsula. It appears unlikely that the Atlantic sea-breeze will be maintained near coastal areas through peak afternoon destabilization, except perhaps across southeastern Florida, where forecast soundings (particularly the NAM) suggest that warm layers in mid-levels will contribute to strong inhibition. Due to spread concerning shorter wavelength developments within the large-scale flow, depictions of potential convective evolution into and through this period remain varied. However, while the potential for vigorous thunderstorms to develop, or be maintained, across interior and eastern portions of the peninsula appears low, it might not be out of the question that an organized cluster could spread off the northeastern Gulf into northern and west central portions of the peninsula early in the period, accompanied by some risk for damaging wind gusts before weakening. ..Kerr.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from south-central Texas eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through the early evening. ...Gulf Coast states... A mid-level speed max initially over south TX will move east to the northeast Gulf Coast through the evening, while a large-scale trough amplifies over the Great Lakes/eastern U.S. A frontal zone draped along the northern Gulf Coast will move little through the midday before a cold front accelerates southward over the northwest Gulf Coast. Showers and scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across parts of the coastal plain of TX into southwest LA. A relatively moist and weakly unstable environment amidst strong deep-layer shear may yield a few strong to locally severe thunderstorms. Model guidance indicates embedded clusters of thunderstorms within a broader rain shield over LA will gradually move east into the FL Panhandle towards the evening, as the risk for strong thunderstorms diminishes. ..Smith/Supinie.. 03/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from south-central Texas eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through the early evening. ...Gulf Coast states... A mid-level speed max initially over south TX will move east to the northeast Gulf Coast through the evening, while a large-scale trough amplifies over the Great Lakes/eastern U.S. A frontal zone draped along the northern Gulf Coast will move little through the midday before a cold front accelerates southward over the northwest Gulf Coast. Showers and scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across parts of the coastal plain of TX into southwest LA. A relatively moist and weakly unstable environment amidst strong deep-layer shear may yield a few strong to locally severe thunderstorms. Model guidance indicates embedded clusters of thunderstorms within a broader rain shield over LA will gradually move east into the FL Panhandle towards the evening, as the risk for strong thunderstorms diminishes. ..Smith/Supinie.. 03/17/2024 Read more