Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today and tonight from south Texas into western Louisiana. ...South/Southeast Texas and Louisiana... Prevalent cyclonic upper-level flow will exist ahead of the low-latitude southern-stream trough that will further dig and amplify over northwest Mexico. A relatively moist (mid 60s F surface dewpoints) warm sector will persist across much of south/east Texas into Louisiana, to the east/southeast of a front across Texas. Periodic showers/thunderstorms and prevalent multi-layer cloud cover will tend to hinder appreciable destabilization, but a few near-surface-based storms may evolve this afternoon into this evening. This convection could pose a risk for locally damaging winds and/or a brief tornado coincident with moderately strong low-level SRH. Some risk for gusty winds should eventually spread into parts of western Louisiana, though severe potential will remain relatively low through the end of the period. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 01/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today and tonight from south Texas into western Louisiana. ...South/Southeast Texas and Louisiana... Prevalent cyclonic upper-level flow will exist ahead of the low-latitude southern-stream trough that will further dig and amplify over northwest Mexico. A relatively moist (mid 60s F surface dewpoints) warm sector will persist across much of south/east Texas into Louisiana, to the east/southeast of a front across Texas. Periodic showers/thunderstorms and prevalent multi-layer cloud cover will tend to hinder appreciable destabilization, but a few near-surface-based storms may evolve this afternoon into this evening. This convection could pose a risk for locally damaging winds and/or a brief tornado coincident with moderately strong low-level SRH. Some risk for gusty winds should eventually spread into parts of western Louisiana, though severe potential will remain relatively low through the end of the period. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 01/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today and tonight from south Texas into western Louisiana. ...South/Southeast Texas and Louisiana... Prevalent cyclonic upper-level flow will exist ahead of the low-latitude southern-stream trough that will further dig and amplify over northwest Mexico. A relatively moist (mid 60s F surface dewpoints) warm sector will persist across much of south/east Texas into Louisiana, to the east/southeast of a front across Texas. Periodic showers/thunderstorms and prevalent multi-layer cloud cover will tend to hinder appreciable destabilization, but a few near-surface-based storms may evolve this afternoon into this evening. This convection could pose a risk for locally damaging winds and/or a brief tornado coincident with moderately strong low-level SRH. Some risk for gusty winds should eventually spread into parts of western Louisiana, though severe potential will remain relatively low through the end of the period. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 01/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN TO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight from south Texas into western Louisiana. ...South Texas and the Coastal Plain into western Louisiana... Showers and scattered/elevated thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across Texas, in tandem with a southwesterly mid-level jet that will continue advancing northeastward out of Mexico across the southern Plains through tonight. Instability remains weak, and generally elevated atop a cool/still-stable boundary layer, with small hail locally approaching severe levels possible, as waves of convection spread across the area. Nearer the coast, as a very weak surface low develops over east Texas today, some inland advection of more moist gulf air will continue, with potential that a few near-surface-based storms eventually evolve this afternoon. This convection could pose local risk for gusty/damaging winds, and possibly a brief/weak tornado or two, though modest CAPE/weak lapse rates will limit severe potential despite favorably strong/veering flow with height. Some risk for gusty winds should eventually spread into parts of western Louisiana, though severe potential will remain low through the end of the period. ..Goss/Mosier.. 01/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN TO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight from south Texas into western Louisiana. ...South Texas and the Coastal Plain into western Louisiana... Showers and scattered/elevated thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across Texas, in tandem with a southwesterly mid-level jet that will continue advancing northeastward out of Mexico across the southern Plains through tonight. Instability remains weak, and generally elevated atop a cool/still-stable boundary layer, with small hail locally approaching severe levels possible, as waves of convection spread across the area. Nearer the coast, as a very weak surface low develops over east Texas today, some inland advection of more moist gulf air will continue, with potential that a few near-surface-based storms eventually evolve this afternoon. This convection could pose local risk for gusty/damaging winds, and possibly a brief/weak tornado or two, though modest CAPE/weak lapse rates will limit severe potential despite favorably strong/veering flow with height. Some risk for gusty winds should eventually spread into parts of western Louisiana, though severe potential will remain low through the end of the period. ..Goss/Mosier.. 01/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN TO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight from south Texas into western Louisiana. ...South Texas and the Coastal Plain into western Louisiana... Showers and scattered/elevated thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across Texas, in tandem with a southwesterly mid-level jet that will continue advancing northeastward out of Mexico across the southern Plains through tonight. Instability remains weak, and generally elevated atop a cool/still-stable boundary layer, with small hail locally approaching severe levels possible, as waves of convection spread across the area. Nearer the coast, as a very weak surface low develops over east Texas today, some inland advection of more moist gulf air will continue, with potential that a few near-surface-based storms eventually evolve this afternoon. This convection could pose local risk for gusty/damaging winds, and possibly a brief/weak tornado or two, though modest CAPE/weak lapse rates will limit severe potential despite favorably strong/veering flow with height. Some risk for gusty winds should eventually spread into parts of western Louisiana, though severe potential will remain low through the end of the period. ..Goss/Mosier.. 01/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN TO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight from south Texas into western Louisiana. ...South Texas and the Coastal Plain into western Louisiana... Showers and scattered/elevated thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across Texas, in tandem with a southwesterly mid-level jet that will continue advancing northeastward out of Mexico across the southern Plains through tonight. Instability remains weak, and generally elevated atop a cool/still-stable boundary layer, with small hail locally approaching severe levels possible, as waves of convection spread across the area. Nearer the coast, as a very weak surface low develops over east Texas today, some inland advection of more moist gulf air will continue, with potential that a few near-surface-based storms eventually evolve this afternoon. This convection could pose local risk for gusty/damaging winds, and possibly a brief/weak tornado or two, though modest CAPE/weak lapse rates will limit severe potential despite favorably strong/veering flow with height. Some risk for gusty winds should eventually spread into parts of western Louisiana, though severe potential will remain low through the end of the period. ..Goss/Mosier.. 01/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN TO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight from south Texas into western Louisiana. ...South Texas and the Coastal Plain into western Louisiana... Showers and scattered/elevated thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across Texas, in tandem with a southwesterly mid-level jet that will continue advancing northeastward out of Mexico across the southern Plains through tonight. Instability remains weak, and generally elevated atop a cool/still-stable boundary layer, with small hail locally approaching severe levels possible, as waves of convection spread across the area. Nearer the coast, as a very weak surface low develops over east Texas today, some inland advection of more moist gulf air will continue, with potential that a few near-surface-based storms eventually evolve this afternoon. This convection could pose local risk for gusty/damaging winds, and possibly a brief/weak tornado or two, though modest CAPE/weak lapse rates will limit severe potential despite favorably strong/veering flow with height. Some risk for gusty winds should eventually spread into parts of western Louisiana, though severe potential will remain low through the end of the period. ..Goss/Mosier.. 01/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN TO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight from south Texas into western Louisiana. ...South Texas and the Coastal Plain into western Louisiana... Showers and scattered/elevated thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across Texas, in tandem with a southwesterly mid-level jet that will continue advancing northeastward out of Mexico across the southern Plains through tonight. Instability remains weak, and generally elevated atop a cool/still-stable boundary layer, with small hail locally approaching severe levels possible, as waves of convection spread across the area. Nearer the coast, as a very weak surface low develops over east Texas today, some inland advection of more moist gulf air will continue, with potential that a few near-surface-based storms eventually evolve this afternoon. This convection could pose local risk for gusty/damaging winds, and possibly a brief/weak tornado or two, though modest CAPE/weak lapse rates will limit severe potential despite favorably strong/veering flow with height. Some risk for gusty winds should eventually spread into parts of western Louisiana, though severe potential will remain low through the end of the period. ..Goss/Mosier.. 01/23/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward from the southern Plains on Friday to the eastern U.S. on Saturday. A moist airmass is forecast to be in place across the Southeast and Carolinas, where scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop each afternoon and evening. Although a marginal severe threat will be possible each day, the greatest threat would be from Friday night into Saturday, as an upper-level trough and associated mid-level jet move across the region. At this time, model forecasts have weak instability ahead of the upper-level system, which would be a limiting factor for a severe threat. However, the progressive nature of the mid-level jet and the associated strong deep-layer shear could be enough for a cluster of severe storms capable of producing wind damage. At this time, will keep the forecast at predictability too low, mainly due to uncertainty concerning the timing of the upper-level system and magnitude of instability across the moist sector. By Saturday, a severe threat would be possible in parts of the Carolinas. However, instability is again forecast to be very weak which introduces considerable uncertainty into the forecast scenario. ...Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8... The upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the western Atlantic on Sunday. In its wake, dry surface high pressure is forecast to move into much of the central and eastern U.S. For this reason, the potential for thunderstorm development across the continental U.S. from Sunday to Tuesday appears to be low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward from the southern Plains on Friday to the eastern U.S. on Saturday. A moist airmass is forecast to be in place across the Southeast and Carolinas, where scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop each afternoon and evening. Although a marginal severe threat will be possible each day, the greatest threat would be from Friday night into Saturday, as an upper-level trough and associated mid-level jet move across the region. At this time, model forecasts have weak instability ahead of the upper-level system, which would be a limiting factor for a severe threat. However, the progressive nature of the mid-level jet and the associated strong deep-layer shear could be enough for a cluster of severe storms capable of producing wind damage. At this time, will keep the forecast at predictability too low, mainly due to uncertainty concerning the timing of the upper-level system and magnitude of instability across the moist sector. By Saturday, a severe threat would be possible in parts of the Carolinas. However, instability is again forecast to be very weak which introduces considerable uncertainty into the forecast scenario. ...Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8... The upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the western Atlantic on Sunday. In its wake, dry surface high pressure is forecast to move into much of the central and eastern U.S. For this reason, the potential for thunderstorm development across the continental U.S. from Sunday to Tuesday appears to be low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward from the southern Plains on Friday to the eastern U.S. on Saturday. A moist airmass is forecast to be in place across the Southeast and Carolinas, where scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop each afternoon and evening. Although a marginal severe threat will be possible each day, the greatest threat would be from Friday night into Saturday, as an upper-level trough and associated mid-level jet move across the region. At this time, model forecasts have weak instability ahead of the upper-level system, which would be a limiting factor for a severe threat. However, the progressive nature of the mid-level jet and the associated strong deep-layer shear could be enough for a cluster of severe storms capable of producing wind damage. At this time, will keep the forecast at predictability too low, mainly due to uncertainty concerning the timing of the upper-level system and magnitude of instability across the moist sector. By Saturday, a severe threat would be possible in parts of the Carolinas. However, instability is again forecast to be very weak which introduces considerable uncertainty into the forecast scenario. ...Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8... The upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the western Atlantic on Sunday. In its wake, dry surface high pressure is forecast to move into much of the central and eastern U.S. For this reason, the potential for thunderstorm development across the continental U.S. from Sunday to Tuesday appears to be low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward from the southern Plains on Friday to the eastern U.S. on Saturday. A moist airmass is forecast to be in place across the Southeast and Carolinas, where scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop each afternoon and evening. Although a marginal severe threat will be possible each day, the greatest threat would be from Friday night into Saturday, as an upper-level trough and associated mid-level jet move across the region. At this time, model forecasts have weak instability ahead of the upper-level system, which would be a limiting factor for a severe threat. However, the progressive nature of the mid-level jet and the associated strong deep-layer shear could be enough for a cluster of severe storms capable of producing wind damage. At this time, will keep the forecast at predictability too low, mainly due to uncertainty concerning the timing of the upper-level system and magnitude of instability across the moist sector. By Saturday, a severe threat would be possible in parts of the Carolinas. However, instability is again forecast to be very weak which introduces considerable uncertainty into the forecast scenario. ...Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8... The upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the western Atlantic on Sunday. In its wake, dry surface high pressure is forecast to move into much of the central and eastern U.S. For this reason, the potential for thunderstorm development across the continental U.S. from Sunday to Tuesday appears to be low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward from the southern Plains on Friday to the eastern U.S. on Saturday. A moist airmass is forecast to be in place across the Southeast and Carolinas, where scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop each afternoon and evening. Although a marginal severe threat will be possible each day, the greatest threat would be from Friday night into Saturday, as an upper-level trough and associated mid-level jet move across the region. At this time, model forecasts have weak instability ahead of the upper-level system, which would be a limiting factor for a severe threat. However, the progressive nature of the mid-level jet and the associated strong deep-layer shear could be enough for a cluster of severe storms capable of producing wind damage. At this time, will keep the forecast at predictability too low, mainly due to uncertainty concerning the timing of the upper-level system and magnitude of instability across the moist sector. By Saturday, a severe threat would be possible in parts of the Carolinas. However, instability is again forecast to be very weak which introduces considerable uncertainty into the forecast scenario. ...Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8... The upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the western Atlantic on Sunday. In its wake, dry surface high pressure is forecast to move into much of the central and eastern U.S. For this reason, the potential for thunderstorm development across the continental U.S. from Sunday to Tuesday appears to be low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward from the southern Plains on Friday to the eastern U.S. on Saturday. A moist airmass is forecast to be in place across the Southeast and Carolinas, where scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop each afternoon and evening. Although a marginal severe threat will be possible each day, the greatest threat would be from Friday night into Saturday, as an upper-level trough and associated mid-level jet move across the region. At this time, model forecasts have weak instability ahead of the upper-level system, which would be a limiting factor for a severe threat. However, the progressive nature of the mid-level jet and the associated strong deep-layer shear could be enough for a cluster of severe storms capable of producing wind damage. At this time, will keep the forecast at predictability too low, mainly due to uncertainty concerning the timing of the upper-level system and magnitude of instability across the moist sector. By Saturday, a severe threat would be possible in parts of the Carolinas. However, instability is again forecast to be very weak which introduces considerable uncertainty into the forecast scenario. ...Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8... The upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the western Atlantic on Sunday. In its wake, dry surface high pressure is forecast to move into much of the central and eastern U.S. For this reason, the potential for thunderstorm development across the continental U.S. from Sunday to Tuesday appears to be low. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with marginally severe gusts, will be possible across parts of the central Gulf Coast region on Thursday. ...Central Gulf Coast... Southwest flow at mid-levels will be in place on Thursday across much of the eastern half of the nation, as a shortwave trough moves northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located across the central Gulf Coast states, where surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the 60s F. A cold front is forecast to advance eastward through the lower Mississippi Valley, with thunderstorms increasing in coverage during the morning and afternoon. Model solutions suggest that a relatively disorganized line of storms could develop near the front. Ahead of the line, a small area of weak instability is forecast from southeast Louisiana into far southern Mississippi. Thunderstorms that move northeastward through this unstable airmass could develop an isolated severe threat. Although deep-layer shear may be strong enough for a low-end wind-damage threat, poor low to mid-level lapse rates should keep any threat marginal and confined to a small area. ..Broyles.. 01/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with marginally severe gusts, will be possible across parts of the central Gulf Coast region on Thursday. ...Central Gulf Coast... Southwest flow at mid-levels will be in place on Thursday across much of the eastern half of the nation, as a shortwave trough moves northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located across the central Gulf Coast states, where surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the 60s F. A cold front is forecast to advance eastward through the lower Mississippi Valley, with thunderstorms increasing in coverage during the morning and afternoon. Model solutions suggest that a relatively disorganized line of storms could develop near the front. Ahead of the line, a small area of weak instability is forecast from southeast Louisiana into far southern Mississippi. Thunderstorms that move northeastward through this unstable airmass could develop an isolated severe threat. Although deep-layer shear may be strong enough for a low-end wind-damage threat, poor low to mid-level lapse rates should keep any threat marginal and confined to a small area. ..Broyles.. 01/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with marginally severe gusts, will be possible across parts of the central Gulf Coast region on Thursday. ...Central Gulf Coast... Southwest flow at mid-levels will be in place on Thursday across much of the eastern half of the nation, as a shortwave trough moves northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located across the central Gulf Coast states, where surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the 60s F. A cold front is forecast to advance eastward through the lower Mississippi Valley, with thunderstorms increasing in coverage during the morning and afternoon. Model solutions suggest that a relatively disorganized line of storms could develop near the front. Ahead of the line, a small area of weak instability is forecast from southeast Louisiana into far southern Mississippi. Thunderstorms that move northeastward through this unstable airmass could develop an isolated severe threat. Although deep-layer shear may be strong enough for a low-end wind-damage threat, poor low to mid-level lapse rates should keep any threat marginal and confined to a small area. ..Broyles.. 01/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with marginally severe gusts, will be possible across parts of the central Gulf Coast region on Thursday. ...Central Gulf Coast... Southwest flow at mid-levels will be in place on Thursday across much of the eastern half of the nation, as a shortwave trough moves northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located across the central Gulf Coast states, where surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the 60s F. A cold front is forecast to advance eastward through the lower Mississippi Valley, with thunderstorms increasing in coverage during the morning and afternoon. Model solutions suggest that a relatively disorganized line of storms could develop near the front. Ahead of the line, a small area of weak instability is forecast from southeast Louisiana into far southern Mississippi. Thunderstorms that move northeastward through this unstable airmass could develop an isolated severe threat. Although deep-layer shear may be strong enough for a low-end wind-damage threat, poor low to mid-level lapse rates should keep any threat marginal and confined to a small area. ..Broyles.. 01/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with marginally severe gusts, will be possible across parts of the central Gulf Coast region on Thursday. ...Central Gulf Coast... Southwest flow at mid-levels will be in place on Thursday across much of the eastern half of the nation, as a shortwave trough moves northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located across the central Gulf Coast states, where surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the 60s F. A cold front is forecast to advance eastward through the lower Mississippi Valley, with thunderstorms increasing in coverage during the morning and afternoon. Model solutions suggest that a relatively disorganized line of storms could develop near the front. Ahead of the line, a small area of weak instability is forecast from southeast Louisiana into far southern Mississippi. Thunderstorms that move northeastward through this unstable airmass could develop an isolated severe threat. Although deep-layer shear may be strong enough for a low-end wind-damage threat, poor low to mid-level lapse rates should keep any threat marginal and confined to a small area. ..Broyles.. 01/23/2024 Read more