Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... A broad zone of amplifying cyclonic flow is forecast to expand eastward to eventually include the western 2/3 of the country, while ridging builds northward across the eastern U.S. through the period. Within the cyclonic flow field expanding eastward with time, multiple small-scale troughs/vorticity maxima will travel eastward in an arcing manner through the background flow. Associated ascent, coupled with abundant Pacific moisture, will support widespread precipitation. While cold/stable low-level air will continue to prevail over the eastern half of the country where the influence of surface high pressure remains, an area of thunderstorms -- largely elevated atop the low-level cold air -- will continue, from portions of Texas across the Arklatex region. Storms spreading northeastward across the Texas Coastal Plain today will encounter an area of weak near-surface-based CAPE along immediate coastal areas. With the background kinematic environment exhibiting favorably strong/veering flow with height, this may result in the evolution of a couple of stronger storms for a brief time late this morning/early this afternoon -- and possibly a brief window of non-zero severe potential. However, at this time risk does not appear sufficient to introduce even a lowest-end (5% wind/2% tornado) risk area. Meanwhile in the West, showers and occasional lightning flashes will be possible from portions of central and southern California into southern Arizona. This convection will be associated with a rather pronounced mid-level trough embedded within broader cyclonic flow -- and an associated mid-level jet -- digging southeastward out of the eastern Pacific into the southwestern states through the period. Severe weather is not expected. ..Goss/Mosier.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... A broad zone of amplifying cyclonic flow is forecast to expand eastward to eventually include the western 2/3 of the country, while ridging builds northward across the eastern U.S. through the period. Within the cyclonic flow field expanding eastward with time, multiple small-scale troughs/vorticity maxima will travel eastward in an arcing manner through the background flow. Associated ascent, coupled with abundant Pacific moisture, will support widespread precipitation. While cold/stable low-level air will continue to prevail over the eastern half of the country where the influence of surface high pressure remains, an area of thunderstorms -- largely elevated atop the low-level cold air -- will continue, from portions of Texas across the Arklatex region. Storms spreading northeastward across the Texas Coastal Plain today will encounter an area of weak near-surface-based CAPE along immediate coastal areas. With the background kinematic environment exhibiting favorably strong/veering flow with height, this may result in the evolution of a couple of stronger storms for a brief time late this morning/early this afternoon -- and possibly a brief window of non-zero severe potential. However, at this time risk does not appear sufficient to introduce even a lowest-end (5% wind/2% tornado) risk area. Meanwhile in the West, showers and occasional lightning flashes will be possible from portions of central and southern California into southern Arizona. This convection will be associated with a rather pronounced mid-level trough embedded within broader cyclonic flow -- and an associated mid-level jet -- digging southeastward out of the eastern Pacific into the southwestern states through the period. Severe weather is not expected. ..Goss/Mosier.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... A broad zone of amplifying cyclonic flow is forecast to expand eastward to eventually include the western 2/3 of the country, while ridging builds northward across the eastern U.S. through the period. Within the cyclonic flow field expanding eastward with time, multiple small-scale troughs/vorticity maxima will travel eastward in an arcing manner through the background flow. Associated ascent, coupled with abundant Pacific moisture, will support widespread precipitation. While cold/stable low-level air will continue to prevail over the eastern half of the country where the influence of surface high pressure remains, an area of thunderstorms -- largely elevated atop the low-level cold air -- will continue, from portions of Texas across the Arklatex region. Storms spreading northeastward across the Texas Coastal Plain today will encounter an area of weak near-surface-based CAPE along immediate coastal areas. With the background kinematic environment exhibiting favorably strong/veering flow with height, this may result in the evolution of a couple of stronger storms for a brief time late this morning/early this afternoon -- and possibly a brief window of non-zero severe potential. However, at this time risk does not appear sufficient to introduce even a lowest-end (5% wind/2% tornado) risk area. Meanwhile in the West, showers and occasional lightning flashes will be possible from portions of central and southern California into southern Arizona. This convection will be associated with a rather pronounced mid-level trough embedded within broader cyclonic flow -- and an associated mid-level jet -- digging southeastward out of the eastern Pacific into the southwestern states through the period. Severe weather is not expected. ..Goss/Mosier.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... A broad zone of amplifying cyclonic flow is forecast to expand eastward to eventually include the western 2/3 of the country, while ridging builds northward across the eastern U.S. through the period. Within the cyclonic flow field expanding eastward with time, multiple small-scale troughs/vorticity maxima will travel eastward in an arcing manner through the background flow. Associated ascent, coupled with abundant Pacific moisture, will support widespread precipitation. While cold/stable low-level air will continue to prevail over the eastern half of the country where the influence of surface high pressure remains, an area of thunderstorms -- largely elevated atop the low-level cold air -- will continue, from portions of Texas across the Arklatex region. Storms spreading northeastward across the Texas Coastal Plain today will encounter an area of weak near-surface-based CAPE along immediate coastal areas. With the background kinematic environment exhibiting favorably strong/veering flow with height, this may result in the evolution of a couple of stronger storms for a brief time late this morning/early this afternoon -- and possibly a brief window of non-zero severe potential. However, at this time risk does not appear sufficient to introduce even a lowest-end (5% wind/2% tornado) risk area. Meanwhile in the West, showers and occasional lightning flashes will be possible from portions of central and southern California into southern Arizona. This convection will be associated with a rather pronounced mid-level trough embedded within broader cyclonic flow -- and an associated mid-level jet -- digging southeastward out of the eastern Pacific into the southwestern states through the period. Severe weather is not expected. ..Goss/Mosier.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... A broad zone of amplifying cyclonic flow is forecast to expand eastward to eventually include the western 2/3 of the country, while ridging builds northward across the eastern U.S. through the period. Within the cyclonic flow field expanding eastward with time, multiple small-scale troughs/vorticity maxima will travel eastward in an arcing manner through the background flow. Associated ascent, coupled with abundant Pacific moisture, will support widespread precipitation. While cold/stable low-level air will continue to prevail over the eastern half of the country where the influence of surface high pressure remains, an area of thunderstorms -- largely elevated atop the low-level cold air -- will continue, from portions of Texas across the Arklatex region. Storms spreading northeastward across the Texas Coastal Plain today will encounter an area of weak near-surface-based CAPE along immediate coastal areas. With the background kinematic environment exhibiting favorably strong/veering flow with height, this may result in the evolution of a couple of stronger storms for a brief time late this morning/early this afternoon -- and possibly a brief window of non-zero severe potential. However, at this time risk does not appear sufficient to introduce even a lowest-end (5% wind/2% tornado) risk area. Meanwhile in the West, showers and occasional lightning flashes will be possible from portions of central and southern California into southern Arizona. This convection will be associated with a rather pronounced mid-level trough embedded within broader cyclonic flow -- and an associated mid-level jet -- digging southeastward out of the eastern Pacific into the southwestern states through the period. Severe weather is not expected. ..Goss/Mosier.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... A broad zone of amplifying cyclonic flow is forecast to expand eastward to eventually include the western 2/3 of the country, while ridging builds northward across the eastern U.S. through the period. Within the cyclonic flow field expanding eastward with time, multiple small-scale troughs/vorticity maxima will travel eastward in an arcing manner through the background flow. Associated ascent, coupled with abundant Pacific moisture, will support widespread precipitation. While cold/stable low-level air will continue to prevail over the eastern half of the country where the influence of surface high pressure remains, an area of thunderstorms -- largely elevated atop the low-level cold air -- will continue, from portions of Texas across the Arklatex region. Storms spreading northeastward across the Texas Coastal Plain today will encounter an area of weak near-surface-based CAPE along immediate coastal areas. With the background kinematic environment exhibiting favorably strong/veering flow with height, this may result in the evolution of a couple of stronger storms for a brief time late this morning/early this afternoon -- and possibly a brief window of non-zero severe potential. However, at this time risk does not appear sufficient to introduce even a lowest-end (5% wind/2% tornado) risk area. Meanwhile in the West, showers and occasional lightning flashes will be possible from portions of central and southern California into southern Arizona. This convection will be associated with a rather pronounced mid-level trough embedded within broader cyclonic flow -- and an associated mid-level jet -- digging southeastward out of the eastern Pacific into the southwestern states through the period. Severe weather is not expected. ..Goss/Mosier.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... A broad zone of amplifying cyclonic flow is forecast to expand eastward to eventually include the western 2/3 of the country, while ridging builds northward across the eastern U.S. through the period. Within the cyclonic flow field expanding eastward with time, multiple small-scale troughs/vorticity maxima will travel eastward in an arcing manner through the background flow. Associated ascent, coupled with abundant Pacific moisture, will support widespread precipitation. While cold/stable low-level air will continue to prevail over the eastern half of the country where the influence of surface high pressure remains, an area of thunderstorms -- largely elevated atop the low-level cold air -- will continue, from portions of Texas across the Arklatex region. Storms spreading northeastward across the Texas Coastal Plain today will encounter an area of weak near-surface-based CAPE along immediate coastal areas. With the background kinematic environment exhibiting favorably strong/veering flow with height, this may result in the evolution of a couple of stronger storms for a brief time late this morning/early this afternoon -- and possibly a brief window of non-zero severe potential. However, at this time risk does not appear sufficient to introduce even a lowest-end (5% wind/2% tornado) risk area. Meanwhile in the West, showers and occasional lightning flashes will be possible from portions of central and southern California into southern Arizona. This convection will be associated with a rather pronounced mid-level trough embedded within broader cyclonic flow -- and an associated mid-level jet -- digging southeastward out of the eastern Pacific into the southwestern states through the period. Severe weather is not expected. ..Goss/Mosier.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... A broad zone of amplifying cyclonic flow is forecast to expand eastward to eventually include the western 2/3 of the country, while ridging builds northward across the eastern U.S. through the period. Within the cyclonic flow field expanding eastward with time, multiple small-scale troughs/vorticity maxima will travel eastward in an arcing manner through the background flow. Associated ascent, coupled with abundant Pacific moisture, will support widespread precipitation. While cold/stable low-level air will continue to prevail over the eastern half of the country where the influence of surface high pressure remains, an area of thunderstorms -- largely elevated atop the low-level cold air -- will continue, from portions of Texas across the Arklatex region. Storms spreading northeastward across the Texas Coastal Plain today will encounter an area of weak near-surface-based CAPE along immediate coastal areas. With the background kinematic environment exhibiting favorably strong/veering flow with height, this may result in the evolution of a couple of stronger storms for a brief time late this morning/early this afternoon -- and possibly a brief window of non-zero severe potential. However, at this time risk does not appear sufficient to introduce even a lowest-end (5% wind/2% tornado) risk area. Meanwhile in the West, showers and occasional lightning flashes will be possible from portions of central and southern California into southern Arizona. This convection will be associated with a rather pronounced mid-level trough embedded within broader cyclonic flow -- and an associated mid-level jet -- digging southeastward out of the eastern Pacific into the southwestern states through the period. Severe weather is not expected. ..Goss/Mosier.. 01/22/2024 Read more

MD 0081 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL/EASTERN OK...SOUTHEAST KS...SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL MO...NORTHEAST AR
Mesoscale Discussion 0081 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Areas affected...Southwest/Central/Eastern OK...Southeast KS...Southwest/South-Central MO...Northeast AR Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 220651Z - 221245Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain, with rates of 0.01" to 0.03" per hour, will continue across much of central and eastern Oklahoma and into the Ozark Plateau for the next several hours. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery continues to show a large area of precipitation from OK into the Ozark Plateau. This area of precipitation, which is a supported by moderate warm-air advection across the southern Plains, is gradually moving eastward/northeastward and is occurring within an area of largely sub-freezing surface temperatures. A more coherent area of precipitation is entering the Ozark Plateau vicinity, where light but steady precipitation should lead to freezing rain rates on the order of 0.01" to 0.03" per hour. This initial area of precipitation is followed by a more banded precipitation structure, which is ongoing over central OK now. Precipitation rates within these bands are likely equivalent to those within the more broad area of precipitation (i.e. around 0.01" to 0.03"), but higher rates are possible if deeper convection is realized within any of these bands. Lightning was recently observed in Cooke County TX, which is indicative of some deeper convective cores and higher precipitation rates. Temperatures across this region are expected to stay below freezing for the next several hours, with temperatures then warming above freezing around 10 to 12Z across south-central and southeast OK. Gradual warming is expected to then expand northeastward over time, ending the threat for freezing rain. ..Mosier.. 01/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 34309907 35519815 36339726 37409554 37489206 35889252 34139432 33769678 34309907 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... Southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast to be in place across much of the central and eastern U.S. from Thursday to Saturday, as an upper-level trough moves from the Intermountain West to the southern Plains. Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Southeast on each of these days, as multiple shortwave troughs move across the region. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast across the southern Gulf Coast states late in the week where an isolated severe threat will be possible each afternoon and evening from Thursday to Saturday. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be strong, weak instability should help to keep any severe threat localized. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... By Sunday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as a cold front advances eastward off of the Atlantic Coast. In response, the airmass across the Southeast will likely become less favorable for thunderstorms through time from Sunday into Monday. No severe threat is expected for either of these two days. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... Southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast to be in place across much of the central and eastern U.S. from Thursday to Saturday, as an upper-level trough moves from the Intermountain West to the southern Plains. Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Southeast on each of these days, as multiple shortwave troughs move across the region. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast across the southern Gulf Coast states late in the week where an isolated severe threat will be possible each afternoon and evening from Thursday to Saturday. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be strong, weak instability should help to keep any severe threat localized. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... By Sunday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as a cold front advances eastward off of the Atlantic Coast. In response, the airmass across the Southeast will likely become less favorable for thunderstorms through time from Sunday into Monday. No severe threat is expected for either of these two days. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... Southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast to be in place across much of the central and eastern U.S. from Thursday to Saturday, as an upper-level trough moves from the Intermountain West to the southern Plains. Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Southeast on each of these days, as multiple shortwave troughs move across the region. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast across the southern Gulf Coast states late in the week where an isolated severe threat will be possible each afternoon and evening from Thursday to Saturday. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be strong, weak instability should help to keep any severe threat localized. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... By Sunday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as a cold front advances eastward off of the Atlantic Coast. In response, the airmass across the Southeast will likely become less favorable for thunderstorms through time from Sunday into Monday. No severe threat is expected for either of these two days. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... Southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast to be in place across much of the central and eastern U.S. from Thursday to Saturday, as an upper-level trough moves from the Intermountain West to the southern Plains. Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Southeast on each of these days, as multiple shortwave troughs move across the region. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast across the southern Gulf Coast states late in the week where an isolated severe threat will be possible each afternoon and evening from Thursday to Saturday. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be strong, weak instability should help to keep any severe threat localized. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... By Sunday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as a cold front advances eastward off of the Atlantic Coast. In response, the airmass across the Southeast will likely become less favorable for thunderstorms through time from Sunday into Monday. No severe threat is expected for either of these two days. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... Southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast to be in place across much of the central and eastern U.S. from Thursday to Saturday, as an upper-level trough moves from the Intermountain West to the southern Plains. Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Southeast on each of these days, as multiple shortwave troughs move across the region. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast across the southern Gulf Coast states late in the week where an isolated severe threat will be possible each afternoon and evening from Thursday to Saturday. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be strong, weak instability should help to keep any severe threat localized. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... By Sunday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as a cold front advances eastward off of the Atlantic Coast. In response, the airmass across the Southeast will likely become less favorable for thunderstorms through time from Sunday into Monday. No severe threat is expected for either of these two days. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... Southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast to be in place across much of the central and eastern U.S. from Thursday to Saturday, as an upper-level trough moves from the Intermountain West to the southern Plains. Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Southeast on each of these days, as multiple shortwave troughs move across the region. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast across the southern Gulf Coast states late in the week where an isolated severe threat will be possible each afternoon and evening from Thursday to Saturday. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be strong, weak instability should help to keep any severe threat localized. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... By Sunday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as a cold front advances eastward off of the Atlantic Coast. In response, the airmass across the Southeast will likely become less favorable for thunderstorms through time from Sunday into Monday. No severe threat is expected for either of these two days. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... Southwest flow at mid-levels is forecast to be in place across much of the central and eastern U.S. from Thursday to Saturday, as an upper-level trough moves from the Intermountain West to the southern Plains. Thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Southeast on each of these days, as multiple shortwave troughs move across the region. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast across the southern Gulf Coast states late in the week where an isolated severe threat will be possible each afternoon and evening from Thursday to Saturday. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be strong, weak instability should help to keep any severe threat localized. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... By Sunday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., as a cold front advances eastward off of the Atlantic Coast. In response, the airmass across the Southeast will likely become less favorable for thunderstorms through time from Sunday into Monday. No severe threat is expected for either of these two days. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PART OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, some with potential to be marginally severe, will be possible on Wednesday from near the Texas Coast eastward to the central Gulf Coast. ...Western and Central Gulf Coast... Southwest mid-level flow, associated with a broad belt of strong flow, will be in place on Wednesday from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward to the western Gulf Coast, with a moist airmass located from near the Texas Coast extending east-northeastward to the central Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm development will be possible along the front during the day. Although instability is expected to remain weak in most areas ahead of the front, low to mid-level flow may be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. A few of the stronger cells that develop near the front may have a potential to become marginally severe during the afternoon and evening. ..Broyles.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PART OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, some with potential to be marginally severe, will be possible on Wednesday from near the Texas Coast eastward to the central Gulf Coast. ...Western and Central Gulf Coast... Southwest mid-level flow, associated with a broad belt of strong flow, will be in place on Wednesday from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward to the western Gulf Coast, with a moist airmass located from near the Texas Coast extending east-northeastward to the central Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm development will be possible along the front during the day. Although instability is expected to remain weak in most areas ahead of the front, low to mid-level flow may be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. A few of the stronger cells that develop near the front may have a potential to become marginally severe during the afternoon and evening. ..Broyles.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PART OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, some with potential to be marginally severe, will be possible on Wednesday from near the Texas Coast eastward to the central Gulf Coast. ...Western and Central Gulf Coast... Southwest mid-level flow, associated with a broad belt of strong flow, will be in place on Wednesday from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward to the western Gulf Coast, with a moist airmass located from near the Texas Coast extending east-northeastward to the central Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm development will be possible along the front during the day. Although instability is expected to remain weak in most areas ahead of the front, low to mid-level flow may be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. A few of the stronger cells that develop near the front may have a potential to become marginally severe during the afternoon and evening. ..Broyles.. 01/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PART OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, some with potential to be marginally severe, will be possible on Wednesday from near the Texas Coast eastward to the central Gulf Coast. ...Western and Central Gulf Coast... Southwest mid-level flow, associated with a broad belt of strong flow, will be in place on Wednesday from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward to the western Gulf Coast, with a moist airmass located from near the Texas Coast extending east-northeastward to the central Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm development will be possible along the front during the day. Although instability is expected to remain weak in most areas ahead of the front, low to mid-level flow may be strong enough for an isolated severe threat. A few of the stronger cells that develop near the front may have a potential to become marginally severe during the afternoon and evening. ..Broyles.. 01/22/2024 Read more