Severe Storms

MD 0266 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 55... FOR PARTS OF DEEP SOUTH TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0266 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Areas affected...Parts of Deep South TX Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 55... Valid 160711Z - 160915Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 55 continues. SUMMARY...Some threat for hail and isolated severe gusts will persist overnight. Local watch extension may be needed. DISCUSSION...A supercell cluster over Deep South TX has shown gradual signs of upscale growth early this morning. A supercell over Starr County has recently accelerated eastward, while an earlier supercell has nearly stalled over Brooks County. The merger of these cells and their respective cold pools could result in a forward-propagating complex that approaches the coast later this morning. Flow is generally rather weak below 6 km AGL, but upper-level flow is sufficient to aid in maintaining some storm organization through the early morning. Steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg will continue to support some hail threat for as long as semi-discrete storm mode is maintained. Strong to locally severe gusts will also be possible, especially if any additional upscale growth occurs. With WW 55 scheduled to expire at 08Z, local watch extension may need to be considered, depending on short-term convective trends. ..Dean/Thompson.. 03/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... LAT...LON 26629920 27219825 27299781 27229752 26949735 26729736 26539760 26399794 26329828 26269844 26329891 26629920 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather may linger across parts of northern Florida into early Monday before diminishing. ...Synopsis... It appears that the split flow emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific will remain amplified through this period. One initially prominent high centered over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to gradually become more suppressed Monday through Monday night, but not enough to impact the low over the Southwest, which is forecast to remain quasi-stationary or perhaps retrograde a bit farther across the lower Colorado Valley vicinity. At the same time, models indicate that a new high will begin to form within building ridging upstream, near or southwest of the Gulf of Alaska. Downstream of this regime, a vigorous short wave impulse is forecast to continue digging from the lower Missouri Valley through the south Atlantic coast, before turning eastward offshore late Monday night. As this occurs, larger-scale troughing may assume a neutral tilt, centered near the Atlantic Seaboard, with increasingly divergent downstream flow perhaps supporting strengthening surface cyclogenesis well offshore over the western Atlantic. Initial frontal wave development may commence offshore of the south Atlantic coast by early Monday, with a significant trailing cold front forecast to advance southward through much of the northern Gulf Basin and Florida by 12Z Tuesday. ...Florida... In advance of the cold front, models indicate that flow will veer to an increasingly westerly component while continuing to strengthening up to 30-50 kt around 850 mb during the day across the northern half of the peninsula. Any chance for the inland advance of the Atlantic sea-breeze seems limited to southeastern coastal areas, where forecast soundings (particularly the NAM) suggest that warm layers in mid-levels will contribute to substantial inhibition. As a result, while the environment may remain conducive to organized convection (including supercell structures) in a narrow pre-frontal corridor beyond 12Z Monday, particularly across the Cross City and Gainesville vicinities, as low-level convergence and forcing for ascent weaken by mid/late morning, convective potential through the remainder of the period becomes more unclear. ..Kerr.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather may linger across parts of northern Florida into early Monday before diminishing. ...Synopsis... It appears that the split flow emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific will remain amplified through this period. One initially prominent high centered over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to gradually become more suppressed Monday through Monday night, but not enough to impact the low over the Southwest, which is forecast to remain quasi-stationary or perhaps retrograde a bit farther across the lower Colorado Valley vicinity. At the same time, models indicate that a new high will begin to form within building ridging upstream, near or southwest of the Gulf of Alaska. Downstream of this regime, a vigorous short wave impulse is forecast to continue digging from the lower Missouri Valley through the south Atlantic coast, before turning eastward offshore late Monday night. As this occurs, larger-scale troughing may assume a neutral tilt, centered near the Atlantic Seaboard, with increasingly divergent downstream flow perhaps supporting strengthening surface cyclogenesis well offshore over the western Atlantic. Initial frontal wave development may commence offshore of the south Atlantic coast by early Monday, with a significant trailing cold front forecast to advance southward through much of the northern Gulf Basin and Florida by 12Z Tuesday. ...Florida... In advance of the cold front, models indicate that flow will veer to an increasingly westerly component while continuing to strengthening up to 30-50 kt around 850 mb during the day across the northern half of the peninsula. Any chance for the inland advance of the Atlantic sea-breeze seems limited to southeastern coastal areas, where forecast soundings (particularly the NAM) suggest that warm layers in mid-levels will contribute to substantial inhibition. As a result, while the environment may remain conducive to organized convection (including supercell structures) in a narrow pre-frontal corridor beyond 12Z Monday, particularly across the Cross City and Gainesville vicinities, as low-level convergence and forcing for ascent weaken by mid/late morning, convective potential through the remainder of the period becomes more unclear. ..Kerr.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather may linger across parts of northern Florida into early Monday before diminishing. ...Synopsis... It appears that the split flow emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific will remain amplified through this period. One initially prominent high centered over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to gradually become more suppressed Monday through Monday night, but not enough to impact the low over the Southwest, which is forecast to remain quasi-stationary or perhaps retrograde a bit farther across the lower Colorado Valley vicinity. At the same time, models indicate that a new high will begin to form within building ridging upstream, near or southwest of the Gulf of Alaska. Downstream of this regime, a vigorous short wave impulse is forecast to continue digging from the lower Missouri Valley through the south Atlantic coast, before turning eastward offshore late Monday night. As this occurs, larger-scale troughing may assume a neutral tilt, centered near the Atlantic Seaboard, with increasingly divergent downstream flow perhaps supporting strengthening surface cyclogenesis well offshore over the western Atlantic. Initial frontal wave development may commence offshore of the south Atlantic coast by early Monday, with a significant trailing cold front forecast to advance southward through much of the northern Gulf Basin and Florida by 12Z Tuesday. ...Florida... In advance of the cold front, models indicate that flow will veer to an increasingly westerly component while continuing to strengthening up to 30-50 kt around 850 mb during the day across the northern half of the peninsula. Any chance for the inland advance of the Atlantic sea-breeze seems limited to southeastern coastal areas, where forecast soundings (particularly the NAM) suggest that warm layers in mid-levels will contribute to substantial inhibition. As a result, while the environment may remain conducive to organized convection (including supercell structures) in a narrow pre-frontal corridor beyond 12Z Monday, particularly across the Cross City and Gainesville vicinities, as low-level convergence and forcing for ascent weaken by mid/late morning, convective potential through the remainder of the period becomes more unclear. ..Kerr.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather may linger across parts of northern Florida into early Monday before diminishing. ...Synopsis... It appears that the split flow emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific will remain amplified through this period. One initially prominent high centered over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to gradually become more suppressed Monday through Monday night, but not enough to impact the low over the Southwest, which is forecast to remain quasi-stationary or perhaps retrograde a bit farther across the lower Colorado Valley vicinity. At the same time, models indicate that a new high will begin to form within building ridging upstream, near or southwest of the Gulf of Alaska. Downstream of this regime, a vigorous short wave impulse is forecast to continue digging from the lower Missouri Valley through the south Atlantic coast, before turning eastward offshore late Monday night. As this occurs, larger-scale troughing may assume a neutral tilt, centered near the Atlantic Seaboard, with increasingly divergent downstream flow perhaps supporting strengthening surface cyclogenesis well offshore over the western Atlantic. Initial frontal wave development may commence offshore of the south Atlantic coast by early Monday, with a significant trailing cold front forecast to advance southward through much of the northern Gulf Basin and Florida by 12Z Tuesday. ...Florida... In advance of the cold front, models indicate that flow will veer to an increasingly westerly component while continuing to strengthening up to 30-50 kt around 850 mb during the day across the northern half of the peninsula. Any chance for the inland advance of the Atlantic sea-breeze seems limited to southeastern coastal areas, where forecast soundings (particularly the NAM) suggest that warm layers in mid-levels will contribute to substantial inhibition. As a result, while the environment may remain conducive to organized convection (including supercell structures) in a narrow pre-frontal corridor beyond 12Z Monday, particularly across the Cross City and Gainesville vicinities, as low-level convergence and forcing for ascent weaken by mid/late morning, convective potential through the remainder of the period becomes more unclear. ..Kerr.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather may linger across parts of northern Florida into early Monday before diminishing. ...Synopsis... It appears that the split flow emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific will remain amplified through this period. One initially prominent high centered over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to gradually become more suppressed Monday through Monday night, but not enough to impact the low over the Southwest, which is forecast to remain quasi-stationary or perhaps retrograde a bit farther across the lower Colorado Valley vicinity. At the same time, models indicate that a new high will begin to form within building ridging upstream, near or southwest of the Gulf of Alaska. Downstream of this regime, a vigorous short wave impulse is forecast to continue digging from the lower Missouri Valley through the south Atlantic coast, before turning eastward offshore late Monday night. As this occurs, larger-scale troughing may assume a neutral tilt, centered near the Atlantic Seaboard, with increasingly divergent downstream flow perhaps supporting strengthening surface cyclogenesis well offshore over the western Atlantic. Initial frontal wave development may commence offshore of the south Atlantic coast by early Monday, with a significant trailing cold front forecast to advance southward through much of the northern Gulf Basin and Florida by 12Z Tuesday. ...Florida... In advance of the cold front, models indicate that flow will veer to an increasingly westerly component while continuing to strengthening up to 30-50 kt around 850 mb during the day across the northern half of the peninsula. Any chance for the inland advance of the Atlantic sea-breeze seems limited to southeastern coastal areas, where forecast soundings (particularly the NAM) suggest that warm layers in mid-levels will contribute to substantial inhibition. As a result, while the environment may remain conducive to organized convection (including supercell structures) in a narrow pre-frontal corridor beyond 12Z Monday, particularly across the Cross City and Gainesville vicinities, as low-level convergence and forcing for ascent weaken by mid/late morning, convective potential through the remainder of the period becomes more unclear. ..Kerr.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather may linger across parts of northern Florida into early Monday before diminishing. ...Synopsis... It appears that the split flow emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific will remain amplified through this period. One initially prominent high centered over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to gradually become more suppressed Monday through Monday night, but not enough to impact the low over the Southwest, which is forecast to remain quasi-stationary or perhaps retrograde a bit farther across the lower Colorado Valley vicinity. At the same time, models indicate that a new high will begin to form within building ridging upstream, near or southwest of the Gulf of Alaska. Downstream of this regime, a vigorous short wave impulse is forecast to continue digging from the lower Missouri Valley through the south Atlantic coast, before turning eastward offshore late Monday night. As this occurs, larger-scale troughing may assume a neutral tilt, centered near the Atlantic Seaboard, with increasingly divergent downstream flow perhaps supporting strengthening surface cyclogenesis well offshore over the western Atlantic. Initial frontal wave development may commence offshore of the south Atlantic coast by early Monday, with a significant trailing cold front forecast to advance southward through much of the northern Gulf Basin and Florida by 12Z Tuesday. ...Florida... In advance of the cold front, models indicate that flow will veer to an increasingly westerly component while continuing to strengthening up to 30-50 kt around 850 mb during the day across the northern half of the peninsula. Any chance for the inland advance of the Atlantic sea-breeze seems limited to southeastern coastal areas, where forecast soundings (particularly the NAM) suggest that warm layers in mid-levels will contribute to substantial inhibition. As a result, while the environment may remain conducive to organized convection (including supercell structures) in a narrow pre-frontal corridor beyond 12Z Monday, particularly across the Cross City and Gainesville vicinities, as low-level convergence and forcing for ascent weaken by mid/late morning, convective potential through the remainder of the period becomes more unclear. ..Kerr.. 03/16/2024 Read more

MD 0265 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 55... FOR SOUTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0265 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Areas affected...South Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 55... Valid 160441Z - 160645Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 55 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for large hail and wind damage is likely to continue for a few more hours across south Texas. DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar from Corpus Christi shows a large supercell to the southeast of Laredo. This storm is located along the northern edge of a pocket of moderate to strong instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. The storm appears to be supported by a large-scale ascent associated with a subtle shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery. Lift associated with the trough, steep mid-level lapse rates, and moderate deep-layer shear will likely continue to be favorable for a severe threat as this storm moves eastward across south Texas, and with additional cells that develop within the small cluster. A potential for large hail and wind damage is expected to persist for a few more hours. ..Broyles.. 03/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... LAT...LON 27769923 27289940 26879930 27029825 27269806 27969816 27769923 Read more

WW 0055 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 55 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW LRD TO 45 WSW ALI TO 10 ESE NIR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0265 ..DEAN..03/16/24 ATTN...WFO...BRO...EWX...CRP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 55 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC047-131-215-247-249-427-505-160740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROOKS DUVAL HIDALGO JIM HOGG JIM WELLS STARR ZAPATA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0055 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 55 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW LRD TO 45 WSW ALI TO 10 ESE NIR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0265 ..DEAN..03/16/24 ATTN...WFO...BRO...EWX...CRP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 55 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC047-131-215-247-249-427-505-160740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROOKS DUVAL HIDALGO JIM HOGG JIM WELLS STARR ZAPATA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 55 SEVERE TSTM TX 160045Z - 160800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 55 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 745 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of South Texas * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 745 PM until 300 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms currently just west of the Rio Grande will build eastward into South Texas tonight, posing a risk of very large hail and damaging winds. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles northwest of Cotulla TX to 30 miles west southwest of Mcallen TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 54... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29035. ...Hart Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, perhaps including an organizing cluster or two, may impact the Gulf coast vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. This may be accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather, from mid/upper Texas coastal areas eastward through northern Florida and southern Georgia. ...Synopsis... Within an amplified split flow emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, a prominent blocking high appears likely to remain centered over the Pacific Northwest vicinity. To its south, a weakening low will remain quasi-stationary or retrograde a bit across the Southwest. Downstream of this regime, a significant digging short wave impulse of northern mid-latitude origins is forecast to contribute to a slow further amplification of positively-tilted larger-scale mid/upper troughing across the interior and eastern United States. Preceded by a short wave perturbation of subtropical eastern Pacific origins, which will probably become increasingly sheared as it accelerates into a confluent regime east-northeast of the lower Rio Grande Valley, initial low amplitude anticyclonic flow is forecast to trend broadly cyclonic across much of the northern Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Coast vicinity by late Sunday night. In lower levels, a significant cold intrusion accompanying the amplifying mid-level troughing will continue to advance southeastward and southward to the east of the Rockies. By 12Z Monday, it may begin to overtake a weak preceding front, initially stalled offshore of the south Atlantic coast through the Gulf coast vicinity. In advance of the approaching cold front, models suggest that a residual moist boundary-layer may become weak to moderately unstable across and perhaps somewhat inland of Gulf coastal areas during the day Sunday. ...Texas coastal plain through eastern Gulf coast... Due to spread within the various model output concerning shorter wavelength perturbations and associated forcing, depictions of potential convection evolution through this period remain varied. In general, it still appears that one or two clusters of thunderstorms, initially rooted in ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may be ongoing early Sunday across the northwest Gulf coast vicinity. As this activity begins to acquire increasing inflow of the destabilizing boundary-layer air, in the presence of gradually strengthening west-southwesterly mid-level flow (including 40-70+ kt in the 700-500 mb layer), there appears potential for convection to organize and pose a risk for damaging wind gusts while spreading eastward across much of the Gulf coast and coastal waters vicinity by Sunday evening. Sunday evening into Sunday night, southwesterly flow in lower levels may strengthen (including to 30-50 kt around 850 mb) ahead of the cold front across parts of northern Florida into the Georgia coastal plain. It is possible that this could be accompanied by sufficient low-level moistening and enlargement of low-level hodographs to contribute to an environment conducive to supercell structures with potential to produce tornadoes. ..Kerr.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, perhaps including an organizing cluster or two, may impact the Gulf coast vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. This may be accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather, from mid/upper Texas coastal areas eastward through northern Florida and southern Georgia. ...Synopsis... Within an amplified split flow emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, a prominent blocking high appears likely to remain centered over the Pacific Northwest vicinity. To its south, a weakening low will remain quasi-stationary or retrograde a bit across the Southwest. Downstream of this regime, a significant digging short wave impulse of northern mid-latitude origins is forecast to contribute to a slow further amplification of positively-tilted larger-scale mid/upper troughing across the interior and eastern United States. Preceded by a short wave perturbation of subtropical eastern Pacific origins, which will probably become increasingly sheared as it accelerates into a confluent regime east-northeast of the lower Rio Grande Valley, initial low amplitude anticyclonic flow is forecast to trend broadly cyclonic across much of the northern Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Coast vicinity by late Sunday night. In lower levels, a significant cold intrusion accompanying the amplifying mid-level troughing will continue to advance southeastward and southward to the east of the Rockies. By 12Z Monday, it may begin to overtake a weak preceding front, initially stalled offshore of the south Atlantic coast through the Gulf coast vicinity. In advance of the approaching cold front, models suggest that a residual moist boundary-layer may become weak to moderately unstable across and perhaps somewhat inland of Gulf coastal areas during the day Sunday. ...Texas coastal plain through eastern Gulf coast... Due to spread within the various model output concerning shorter wavelength perturbations and associated forcing, depictions of potential convection evolution through this period remain varied. In general, it still appears that one or two clusters of thunderstorms, initially rooted in ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may be ongoing early Sunday across the northwest Gulf coast vicinity. As this activity begins to acquire increasing inflow of the destabilizing boundary-layer air, in the presence of gradually strengthening west-southwesterly mid-level flow (including 40-70+ kt in the 700-500 mb layer), there appears potential for convection to organize and pose a risk for damaging wind gusts while spreading eastward across much of the Gulf coast and coastal waters vicinity by Sunday evening. Sunday evening into Sunday night, southwesterly flow in lower levels may strengthen (including to 30-50 kt around 850 mb) ahead of the cold front across parts of northern Florida into the Georgia coastal plain. It is possible that this could be accompanied by sufficient low-level moistening and enlargement of low-level hodographs to contribute to an environment conducive to supercell structures with potential to produce tornadoes. ..Kerr.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, perhaps including an organizing cluster or two, may impact the Gulf coast vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. This may be accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather, from mid/upper Texas coastal areas eastward through northern Florida and southern Georgia. ...Synopsis... Within an amplified split flow emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, a prominent blocking high appears likely to remain centered over the Pacific Northwest vicinity. To its south, a weakening low will remain quasi-stationary or retrograde a bit across the Southwest. Downstream of this regime, a significant digging short wave impulse of northern mid-latitude origins is forecast to contribute to a slow further amplification of positively-tilted larger-scale mid/upper troughing across the interior and eastern United States. Preceded by a short wave perturbation of subtropical eastern Pacific origins, which will probably become increasingly sheared as it accelerates into a confluent regime east-northeast of the lower Rio Grande Valley, initial low amplitude anticyclonic flow is forecast to trend broadly cyclonic across much of the northern Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Coast vicinity by late Sunday night. In lower levels, a significant cold intrusion accompanying the amplifying mid-level troughing will continue to advance southeastward and southward to the east of the Rockies. By 12Z Monday, it may begin to overtake a weak preceding front, initially stalled offshore of the south Atlantic coast through the Gulf coast vicinity. In advance of the approaching cold front, models suggest that a residual moist boundary-layer may become weak to moderately unstable across and perhaps somewhat inland of Gulf coastal areas during the day Sunday. ...Texas coastal plain through eastern Gulf coast... Due to spread within the various model output concerning shorter wavelength perturbations and associated forcing, depictions of potential convection evolution through this period remain varied. In general, it still appears that one or two clusters of thunderstorms, initially rooted in ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may be ongoing early Sunday across the northwest Gulf coast vicinity. As this activity begins to acquire increasing inflow of the destabilizing boundary-layer air, in the presence of gradually strengthening west-southwesterly mid-level flow (including 40-70+ kt in the 700-500 mb layer), there appears potential for convection to organize and pose a risk for damaging wind gusts while spreading eastward across much of the Gulf coast and coastal waters vicinity by Sunday evening. Sunday evening into Sunday night, southwesterly flow in lower levels may strengthen (including to 30-50 kt around 850 mb) ahead of the cold front across parts of northern Florida into the Georgia coastal plain. It is possible that this could be accompanied by sufficient low-level moistening and enlargement of low-level hodographs to contribute to an environment conducive to supercell structures with potential to produce tornadoes. ..Kerr.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, perhaps including an organizing cluster or two, may impact the Gulf coast vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. This may be accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather, from mid/upper Texas coastal areas eastward through northern Florida and southern Georgia. ...Synopsis... Within an amplified split flow emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, a prominent blocking high appears likely to remain centered over the Pacific Northwest vicinity. To its south, a weakening low will remain quasi-stationary or retrograde a bit across the Southwest. Downstream of this regime, a significant digging short wave impulse of northern mid-latitude origins is forecast to contribute to a slow further amplification of positively-tilted larger-scale mid/upper troughing across the interior and eastern United States. Preceded by a short wave perturbation of subtropical eastern Pacific origins, which will probably become increasingly sheared as it accelerates into a confluent regime east-northeast of the lower Rio Grande Valley, initial low amplitude anticyclonic flow is forecast to trend broadly cyclonic across much of the northern Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Coast vicinity by late Sunday night. In lower levels, a significant cold intrusion accompanying the amplifying mid-level troughing will continue to advance southeastward and southward to the east of the Rockies. By 12Z Monday, it may begin to overtake a weak preceding front, initially stalled offshore of the south Atlantic coast through the Gulf coast vicinity. In advance of the approaching cold front, models suggest that a residual moist boundary-layer may become weak to moderately unstable across and perhaps somewhat inland of Gulf coastal areas during the day Sunday. ...Texas coastal plain through eastern Gulf coast... Due to spread within the various model output concerning shorter wavelength perturbations and associated forcing, depictions of potential convection evolution through this period remain varied. In general, it still appears that one or two clusters of thunderstorms, initially rooted in ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may be ongoing early Sunday across the northwest Gulf coast vicinity. As this activity begins to acquire increasing inflow of the destabilizing boundary-layer air, in the presence of gradually strengthening west-southwesterly mid-level flow (including 40-70+ kt in the 700-500 mb layer), there appears potential for convection to organize and pose a risk for damaging wind gusts while spreading eastward across much of the Gulf coast and coastal waters vicinity by Sunday evening. Sunday evening into Sunday night, southwesterly flow in lower levels may strengthen (including to 30-50 kt around 850 mb) ahead of the cold front across parts of northern Florida into the Georgia coastal plain. It is possible that this could be accompanied by sufficient low-level moistening and enlargement of low-level hodographs to contribute to an environment conducive to supercell structures with potential to produce tornadoes. ..Kerr.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, perhaps including an organizing cluster or two, may impact the Gulf coast vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. This may be accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather, from mid/upper Texas coastal areas eastward through northern Florida and southern Georgia. ...Synopsis... Within an amplified split flow emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, a prominent blocking high appears likely to remain centered over the Pacific Northwest vicinity. To its south, a weakening low will remain quasi-stationary or retrograde a bit across the Southwest. Downstream of this regime, a significant digging short wave impulse of northern mid-latitude origins is forecast to contribute to a slow further amplification of positively-tilted larger-scale mid/upper troughing across the interior and eastern United States. Preceded by a short wave perturbation of subtropical eastern Pacific origins, which will probably become increasingly sheared as it accelerates into a confluent regime east-northeast of the lower Rio Grande Valley, initial low amplitude anticyclonic flow is forecast to trend broadly cyclonic across much of the northern Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Coast vicinity by late Sunday night. In lower levels, a significant cold intrusion accompanying the amplifying mid-level troughing will continue to advance southeastward and southward to the east of the Rockies. By 12Z Monday, it may begin to overtake a weak preceding front, initially stalled offshore of the south Atlantic coast through the Gulf coast vicinity. In advance of the approaching cold front, models suggest that a residual moist boundary-layer may become weak to moderately unstable across and perhaps somewhat inland of Gulf coastal areas during the day Sunday. ...Texas coastal plain through eastern Gulf coast... Due to spread within the various model output concerning shorter wavelength perturbations and associated forcing, depictions of potential convection evolution through this period remain varied. In general, it still appears that one or two clusters of thunderstorms, initially rooted in ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may be ongoing early Sunday across the northwest Gulf coast vicinity. As this activity begins to acquire increasing inflow of the destabilizing boundary-layer air, in the presence of gradually strengthening west-southwesterly mid-level flow (including 40-70+ kt in the 700-500 mb layer), there appears potential for convection to organize and pose a risk for damaging wind gusts while spreading eastward across much of the Gulf coast and coastal waters vicinity by Sunday evening. Sunday evening into Sunday night, southwesterly flow in lower levels may strengthen (including to 30-50 kt around 850 mb) ahead of the cold front across parts of northern Florida into the Georgia coastal plain. It is possible that this could be accompanied by sufficient low-level moistening and enlargement of low-level hodographs to contribute to an environment conducive to supercell structures with potential to produce tornadoes. ..Kerr.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, perhaps including an organizing cluster or two, may impact the Gulf coast vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. This may be accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather, from mid/upper Texas coastal areas eastward through northern Florida and southern Georgia. ...Synopsis... Within an amplified split flow emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, a prominent blocking high appears likely to remain centered over the Pacific Northwest vicinity. To its south, a weakening low will remain quasi-stationary or retrograde a bit across the Southwest. Downstream of this regime, a significant digging short wave impulse of northern mid-latitude origins is forecast to contribute to a slow further amplification of positively-tilted larger-scale mid/upper troughing across the interior and eastern United States. Preceded by a short wave perturbation of subtropical eastern Pacific origins, which will probably become increasingly sheared as it accelerates into a confluent regime east-northeast of the lower Rio Grande Valley, initial low amplitude anticyclonic flow is forecast to trend broadly cyclonic across much of the northern Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Coast vicinity by late Sunday night. In lower levels, a significant cold intrusion accompanying the amplifying mid-level troughing will continue to advance southeastward and southward to the east of the Rockies. By 12Z Monday, it may begin to overtake a weak preceding front, initially stalled offshore of the south Atlantic coast through the Gulf coast vicinity. In advance of the approaching cold front, models suggest that a residual moist boundary-layer may become weak to moderately unstable across and perhaps somewhat inland of Gulf coastal areas during the day Sunday. ...Texas coastal plain through eastern Gulf coast... Due to spread within the various model output concerning shorter wavelength perturbations and associated forcing, depictions of potential convection evolution through this period remain varied. In general, it still appears that one or two clusters of thunderstorms, initially rooted in ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may be ongoing early Sunday across the northwest Gulf coast vicinity. As this activity begins to acquire increasing inflow of the destabilizing boundary-layer air, in the presence of gradually strengthening west-southwesterly mid-level flow (including 40-70+ kt in the 700-500 mb layer), there appears potential for convection to organize and pose a risk for damaging wind gusts while spreading eastward across much of the Gulf coast and coastal waters vicinity by Sunday evening. Sunday evening into Sunday night, southwesterly flow in lower levels may strengthen (including to 30-50 kt around 850 mb) ahead of the cold front across parts of northern Florida into the Georgia coastal plain. It is possible that this could be accompanied by sufficient low-level moistening and enlargement of low-level hodographs to contribute to an environment conducive to supercell structures with potential to produce tornadoes. ..Kerr.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, perhaps including an organizing cluster or two, may impact the Gulf coast vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. This may be accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather, from mid/upper Texas coastal areas eastward through northern Florida and southern Georgia. ...Synopsis... Within an amplified split flow emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, a prominent blocking high appears likely to remain centered over the Pacific Northwest vicinity. To its south, a weakening low will remain quasi-stationary or retrograde a bit across the Southwest. Downstream of this regime, a significant digging short wave impulse of northern mid-latitude origins is forecast to contribute to a slow further amplification of positively-tilted larger-scale mid/upper troughing across the interior and eastern United States. Preceded by a short wave perturbation of subtropical eastern Pacific origins, which will probably become increasingly sheared as it accelerates into a confluent regime east-northeast of the lower Rio Grande Valley, initial low amplitude anticyclonic flow is forecast to trend broadly cyclonic across much of the northern Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Coast vicinity by late Sunday night. In lower levels, a significant cold intrusion accompanying the amplifying mid-level troughing will continue to advance southeastward and southward to the east of the Rockies. By 12Z Monday, it may begin to overtake a weak preceding front, initially stalled offshore of the south Atlantic coast through the Gulf coast vicinity. In advance of the approaching cold front, models suggest that a residual moist boundary-layer may become weak to moderately unstable across and perhaps somewhat inland of Gulf coastal areas during the day Sunday. ...Texas coastal plain through eastern Gulf coast... Due to spread within the various model output concerning shorter wavelength perturbations and associated forcing, depictions of potential convection evolution through this period remain varied. In general, it still appears that one or two clusters of thunderstorms, initially rooted in ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may be ongoing early Sunday across the northwest Gulf coast vicinity. As this activity begins to acquire increasing inflow of the destabilizing boundary-layer air, in the presence of gradually strengthening west-southwesterly mid-level flow (including 40-70+ kt in the 700-500 mb layer), there appears potential for convection to organize and pose a risk for damaging wind gusts while spreading eastward across much of the Gulf coast and coastal waters vicinity by Sunday evening. Sunday evening into Sunday night, southwesterly flow in lower levels may strengthen (including to 30-50 kt around 850 mb) ahead of the cold front across parts of northern Florida into the Georgia coastal plain. It is possible that this could be accompanied by sufficient low-level moistening and enlargement of low-level hodographs to contribute to an environment conducive to supercell structures with potential to produce tornadoes. ..Kerr.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, perhaps including an organizing cluster or two, may impact the Gulf coast vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. This may be accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather, from mid/upper Texas coastal areas eastward through northern Florida and southern Georgia. ...Synopsis... Within an amplified split flow emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, a prominent blocking high appears likely to remain centered over the Pacific Northwest vicinity. To its south, a weakening low will remain quasi-stationary or retrograde a bit across the Southwest. Downstream of this regime, a significant digging short wave impulse of northern mid-latitude origins is forecast to contribute to a slow further amplification of positively-tilted larger-scale mid/upper troughing across the interior and eastern United States. Preceded by a short wave perturbation of subtropical eastern Pacific origins, which will probably become increasingly sheared as it accelerates into a confluent regime east-northeast of the lower Rio Grande Valley, initial low amplitude anticyclonic flow is forecast to trend broadly cyclonic across much of the northern Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Coast vicinity by late Sunday night. In lower levels, a significant cold intrusion accompanying the amplifying mid-level troughing will continue to advance southeastward and southward to the east of the Rockies. By 12Z Monday, it may begin to overtake a weak preceding front, initially stalled offshore of the south Atlantic coast through the Gulf coast vicinity. In advance of the approaching cold front, models suggest that a residual moist boundary-layer may become weak to moderately unstable across and perhaps somewhat inland of Gulf coastal areas during the day Sunday. ...Texas coastal plain through eastern Gulf coast... Due to spread within the various model output concerning shorter wavelength perturbations and associated forcing, depictions of potential convection evolution through this period remain varied. In general, it still appears that one or two clusters of thunderstorms, initially rooted in ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may be ongoing early Sunday across the northwest Gulf coast vicinity. As this activity begins to acquire increasing inflow of the destabilizing boundary-layer air, in the presence of gradually strengthening west-southwesterly mid-level flow (including 40-70+ kt in the 700-500 mb layer), there appears potential for convection to organize and pose a risk for damaging wind gusts while spreading eastward across much of the Gulf coast and coastal waters vicinity by Sunday evening. Sunday evening into Sunday night, southwesterly flow in lower levels may strengthen (including to 30-50 kt around 850 mb) ahead of the cold front across parts of northern Florida into the Georgia coastal plain. It is possible that this could be accompanied by sufficient low-level moistening and enlargement of low-level hodographs to contribute to an environment conducive to supercell structures with potential to produce tornadoes. ..Kerr.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, perhaps including an organizing cluster or two, may impact the Gulf coast vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. This may be accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather, from mid/upper Texas coastal areas eastward through northern Florida and southern Georgia. ...Synopsis... Within an amplified split flow emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, a prominent blocking high appears likely to remain centered over the Pacific Northwest vicinity. To its south, a weakening low will remain quasi-stationary or retrograde a bit across the Southwest. Downstream of this regime, a significant digging short wave impulse of northern mid-latitude origins is forecast to contribute to a slow further amplification of positively-tilted larger-scale mid/upper troughing across the interior and eastern United States. Preceded by a short wave perturbation of subtropical eastern Pacific origins, which will probably become increasingly sheared as it accelerates into a confluent regime east-northeast of the lower Rio Grande Valley, initial low amplitude anticyclonic flow is forecast to trend broadly cyclonic across much of the northern Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Coast vicinity by late Sunday night. In lower levels, a significant cold intrusion accompanying the amplifying mid-level troughing will continue to advance southeastward and southward to the east of the Rockies. By 12Z Monday, it may begin to overtake a weak preceding front, initially stalled offshore of the south Atlantic coast through the Gulf coast vicinity. In advance of the approaching cold front, models suggest that a residual moist boundary-layer may become weak to moderately unstable across and perhaps somewhat inland of Gulf coastal areas during the day Sunday. ...Texas coastal plain through eastern Gulf coast... Due to spread within the various model output concerning shorter wavelength perturbations and associated forcing, depictions of potential convection evolution through this period remain varied. In general, it still appears that one or two clusters of thunderstorms, initially rooted in ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may be ongoing early Sunday across the northwest Gulf coast vicinity. As this activity begins to acquire increasing inflow of the destabilizing boundary-layer air, in the presence of gradually strengthening west-southwesterly mid-level flow (including 40-70+ kt in the 700-500 mb layer), there appears potential for convection to organize and pose a risk for damaging wind gusts while spreading eastward across much of the Gulf coast and coastal waters vicinity by Sunday evening. Sunday evening into Sunday night, southwesterly flow in lower levels may strengthen (including to 30-50 kt around 850 mb) ahead of the cold front across parts of northern Florida into the Georgia coastal plain. It is possible that this could be accompanied by sufficient low-level moistening and enlargement of low-level hodographs to contribute to an environment conducive to supercell structures with potential to produce tornadoes. ..Kerr.. 03/16/2024 Read more