Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS STATES/EASTERN U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe wind gusts will be possible today from the Tennessee Valley and west slopes of the Appalachians to western New England, the Mid-Atlantic Region, and portions of the Carolinas. ...Tennessee Valley/Appalachians... A well-organized northeast/southwest-oriented thunderstorm squall line continues to progress generally eastward across northern Alabama, eastern Tennessee as well as southeast Kentucky and southern West Virginia as of late morning, largely paralleling an eastward-moving cold front. Periodic strong or locally severe wind gusts will remain a possibility across a broad portion of the region today, but especially across the Tennessee Valley toward southern Appalachians where somewhat stronger heating and destabilization are expected coincident with the southern periphery of strong winds aloft and weak height falls. Farther north, showers and cloud cover will tend to remain prevalent across much of the pre-frontal warm sector across the Northeast, although some clearing/weak destabilization is possible later this afternoon immediately near the front currently across the Upper Ohio Valley. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS STATES/EASTERN U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe wind gusts will be possible today from the Tennessee Valley and west slopes of the Appalachians to western New England, the Mid-Atlantic Region, and portions of the Carolinas. ...Tennessee Valley/Appalachians... A well-organized northeast/southwest-oriented thunderstorm squall line continues to progress generally eastward across northern Alabama, eastern Tennessee as well as southeast Kentucky and southern West Virginia as of late morning, largely paralleling an eastward-moving cold front. Periodic strong or locally severe wind gusts will remain a possibility across a broad portion of the region today, but especially across the Tennessee Valley toward southern Appalachians where somewhat stronger heating and destabilization are expected coincident with the southern periphery of strong winds aloft and weak height falls. Farther north, showers and cloud cover will tend to remain prevalent across much of the pre-frontal warm sector across the Northeast, although some clearing/weak destabilization is possible later this afternoon immediately near the front currently across the Upper Ohio Valley. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS STATES/EASTERN U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe wind gusts will be possible today from the Tennessee Valley and west slopes of the Appalachians to western New England, the Mid-Atlantic Region, and portions of the Carolinas. ...Tennessee Valley/Appalachians... A well-organized northeast/southwest-oriented thunderstorm squall line continues to progress generally eastward across northern Alabama, eastern Tennessee as well as southeast Kentucky and southern West Virginia as of late morning, largely paralleling an eastward-moving cold front. Periodic strong or locally severe wind gusts will remain a possibility across a broad portion of the region today, but especially across the Tennessee Valley toward southern Appalachians where somewhat stronger heating and destabilization are expected coincident with the southern periphery of strong winds aloft and weak height falls. Farther north, showers and cloud cover will tend to remain prevalent across much of the pre-frontal warm sector across the Northeast, although some clearing/weak destabilization is possible later this afternoon immediately near the front currently across the Upper Ohio Valley. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS STATES/EASTERN U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe wind gusts will be possible today from the Tennessee Valley and west slopes of the Appalachians to western New England, the Mid-Atlantic Region, and portions of the Carolinas. ...Tennessee Valley/Appalachians... A well-organized northeast/southwest-oriented thunderstorm squall line continues to progress generally eastward across northern Alabama, eastern Tennessee as well as southeast Kentucky and southern West Virginia as of late morning, largely paralleling an eastward-moving cold front. Periodic strong or locally severe wind gusts will remain a possibility across a broad portion of the region today, but especially across the Tennessee Valley toward southern Appalachians where somewhat stronger heating and destabilization are expected coincident with the southern periphery of strong winds aloft and weak height falls. Farther north, showers and cloud cover will tend to remain prevalent across much of the pre-frontal warm sector across the Northeast, although some clearing/weak destabilization is possible later this afternoon immediately near the front currently across the Upper Ohio Valley. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS STATES/EASTERN U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe wind gusts will be possible today from the Tennessee Valley and west slopes of the Appalachians to western New England, the Mid-Atlantic Region, and portions of the Carolinas. ...Tennessee Valley/Appalachians... A well-organized northeast/southwest-oriented thunderstorm squall line continues to progress generally eastward across northern Alabama, eastern Tennessee as well as southeast Kentucky and southern West Virginia as of late morning, largely paralleling an eastward-moving cold front. Periodic strong or locally severe wind gusts will remain a possibility across a broad portion of the region today, but especially across the Tennessee Valley toward southern Appalachians where somewhat stronger heating and destabilization are expected coincident with the southern periphery of strong winds aloft and weak height falls. Farther north, showers and cloud cover will tend to remain prevalent across much of the pre-frontal warm sector across the Northeast, although some clearing/weak destabilization is possible later this afternoon immediately near the front currently across the Upper Ohio Valley. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS STATES/EASTERN U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe wind gusts will be possible today from the Tennessee Valley and west slopes of the Appalachians to western New England, the Mid-Atlantic Region, and portions of the Carolinas. ...Tennessee Valley/Appalachians... A well-organized northeast/southwest-oriented thunderstorm squall line continues to progress generally eastward across northern Alabama, eastern Tennessee as well as southeast Kentucky and southern West Virginia as of late morning, largely paralleling an eastward-moving cold front. Periodic strong or locally severe wind gusts will remain a possibility across a broad portion of the region today, but especially across the Tennessee Valley toward southern Appalachians where somewhat stronger heating and destabilization are expected coincident with the southern periphery of strong winds aloft and weak height falls. Farther north, showers and cloud cover will tend to remain prevalent across much of the pre-frontal warm sector across the Northeast, although some clearing/weak destabilization is possible later this afternoon immediately near the front currently across the Upper Ohio Valley. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS STATES/EASTERN U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe wind gusts will be possible today from the Tennessee Valley and west slopes of the Appalachians to western New England, the Mid-Atlantic Region, and portions of the Carolinas. ...Tennessee Valley/Appalachians... A well-organized northeast/southwest-oriented thunderstorm squall line continues to progress generally eastward across northern Alabama, eastern Tennessee as well as southeast Kentucky and southern West Virginia as of late morning, largely paralleling an eastward-moving cold front. Periodic strong or locally severe wind gusts will remain a possibility across a broad portion of the region today, but especially across the Tennessee Valley toward southern Appalachians where somewhat stronger heating and destabilization are expected coincident with the southern periphery of strong winds aloft and weak height falls. Farther north, showers and cloud cover will tend to remain prevalent across much of the pre-frontal warm sector across the Northeast, although some clearing/weak destabilization is possible later this afternoon immediately near the front currently across the Upper Ohio Valley. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS STATES/EASTERN U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe wind gusts will be possible today from the Tennessee Valley and west slopes of the Appalachians to western New England, the Mid-Atlantic Region, and portions of the Carolinas. ...Tennessee Valley/Appalachians... A well-organized northeast/southwest-oriented thunderstorm squall line continues to progress generally eastward across northern Alabama, eastern Tennessee as well as southeast Kentucky and southern West Virginia as of late morning, largely paralleling an eastward-moving cold front. Periodic strong or locally severe wind gusts will remain a possibility across a broad portion of the region today, but especially across the Tennessee Valley toward southern Appalachians where somewhat stronger heating and destabilization are expected coincident with the southern periphery of strong winds aloft and weak height falls. Farther north, showers and cloud cover will tend to remain prevalent across much of the pre-frontal warm sector across the Northeast, although some clearing/weak destabilization is possible later this afternoon immediately near the front currently across the Upper Ohio Valley. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 02/28/2024 Read more

MD 0175 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 28...29... FOR SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...WEST VIRGINIA...FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA...EASTERN KENTUCKY...NORTHERN TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 0175 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0715 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Areas affected...Southwest Pennsylvania...West Virginia...Far western Virginia...Eastern Kentucky...Northern Tennessee Concerning...Tornado Watch 28...29... Valid 281315Z - 281515Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 28, 29 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat is expected to continue as a line moves eastward into the Appalachians. The threat should become marginal this morning, and additional weather watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery from southwest Pennsylvania southwestward to middle Tennessee shows a line of thunderstorms with several embedded severe storms and short bowing line segments. This line will continue to move eastward into the Appalachians this morning, where RAP analysis suggests weak instability is present. This, combined with strong deep-layer shear will likely continue to support a wind-damage and hail threat for another hour or two. However, these threats are expected to become increasingly marginal as the line moves to the east of the current watches. At this time, weather watch issuance is not planned to the east of the ongoing watches. ..Broyles/Goss.. 02/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK... OHX... LAT...LON 39747882 40187907 40337963 40238016 39918047 39028108 38488181 38158309 37648434 37238527 36868599 36408645 35868586 36038458 36818283 37228134 37618023 39057892 39747882 Read more

WW 0029 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 29 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW CRW TO 20 NNE CRW. WW 29 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 281500Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0175. ..GRAMS..02/28/24 ATTN...WFO...ILN...RLX...PBZ...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 29 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WVC005-039-043-045-059-099-281500- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE KANAWHA LINCOLN LOGAN MINGO WAYNE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 29 TORNADO KY OH WV 280940Z - 281500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 29 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 440 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of parts of northeeastern Kentucky central and southern Ohio western West Virginia * Effective this Wednesday morning from 440 AM until 1000 AM EST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Strong/locally severe storms are ongoing across western Ohio and northern Kentucky at this time, and will continue to spread eastward over the next several hours. The storms will pose local risk for damaging winds and hail, as well as potential for a couple of tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles northeast of Columbus OH to 50 miles south of Athens OH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 27...WW 28... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 25040. ...Goss Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN STATES...AND EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN U.S. COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible today from the west slopes of the Appalachians to western New England, the Mid-Atlantic Region, and portions of the Carolinas. ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing over the central U.S. this morning will continue to intensify as it gradually takes on a more negative tilt, shifting eastward across the eastern third of the U.S. through tonight. Meanwhile, weak ridging will generally prevail over the West, ahead of second trough over the Gulf of Alaska digging southeastward toward the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a strong cold front will cross the Appalachians through midday, and then continue across the eastern U.S., with the boundary moving off the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts this evening and lingering only across Florida overnight. In the West, a cold front will gradually shift southeastward into/across the Pacific Northwest. In between, high pressure will prevail across much of the country. ...Appalachian states... Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from the Lower Great Lakes region southwestward to the Mississippi Delta, along and ahead of the advancing cold front. The strongest storms are ongoing from the Upper Ohio Valley southwestward across Kentucky, where occasionally severe storms -- capable of producing damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado or two -- continue moving eastward. Instability ahead of the convection weakens with eastward extent, particularly east of the mountains. However, pockets of near-surface-based CAPE in the 250 to 500 J/kg range will be possible through this afternoon -- enough to support broken/narrow frontal convective bands until the front moves offshore this evening. Despite the very weak instability, the deep-layer wind field will remain particularly strong -- including 40 to 60 kt as low as 1km AGL and increasing with height. As such, potential for convectively enhanced mixing/downward momentum transport appears to be sufficient to suggest the possibility if isolated severe-caliber wind gusts. This warrants eastward expansion of 5% wind probability/MRGL risk through the day, with risk ending as the front moves offshore this evening. ..Goss/Broyles.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN STATES...AND EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN U.S. COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible today from the west slopes of the Appalachians to western New England, the Mid-Atlantic Region, and portions of the Carolinas. ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing over the central U.S. this morning will continue to intensify as it gradually takes on a more negative tilt, shifting eastward across the eastern third of the U.S. through tonight. Meanwhile, weak ridging will generally prevail over the West, ahead of second trough over the Gulf of Alaska digging southeastward toward the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a strong cold front will cross the Appalachians through midday, and then continue across the eastern U.S., with the boundary moving off the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts this evening and lingering only across Florida overnight. In the West, a cold front will gradually shift southeastward into/across the Pacific Northwest. In between, high pressure will prevail across much of the country. ...Appalachian states... Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from the Lower Great Lakes region southwestward to the Mississippi Delta, along and ahead of the advancing cold front. The strongest storms are ongoing from the Upper Ohio Valley southwestward across Kentucky, where occasionally severe storms -- capable of producing damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado or two -- continue moving eastward. Instability ahead of the convection weakens with eastward extent, particularly east of the mountains. However, pockets of near-surface-based CAPE in the 250 to 500 J/kg range will be possible through this afternoon -- enough to support broken/narrow frontal convective bands until the front moves offshore this evening. Despite the very weak instability, the deep-layer wind field will remain particularly strong -- including 40 to 60 kt as low as 1km AGL and increasing with height. As such, potential for convectively enhanced mixing/downward momentum transport appears to be sufficient to suggest the possibility if isolated severe-caliber wind gusts. This warrants eastward expansion of 5% wind probability/MRGL risk through the day, with risk ending as the front moves offshore this evening. ..Goss/Broyles.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN STATES...AND EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN U.S. COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible today from the west slopes of the Appalachians to western New England, the Mid-Atlantic Region, and portions of the Carolinas. ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing over the central U.S. this morning will continue to intensify as it gradually takes on a more negative tilt, shifting eastward across the eastern third of the U.S. through tonight. Meanwhile, weak ridging will generally prevail over the West, ahead of second trough over the Gulf of Alaska digging southeastward toward the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a strong cold front will cross the Appalachians through midday, and then continue across the eastern U.S., with the boundary moving off the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts this evening and lingering only across Florida overnight. In the West, a cold front will gradually shift southeastward into/across the Pacific Northwest. In between, high pressure will prevail across much of the country. ...Appalachian states... Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from the Lower Great Lakes region southwestward to the Mississippi Delta, along and ahead of the advancing cold front. The strongest storms are ongoing from the Upper Ohio Valley southwestward across Kentucky, where occasionally severe storms -- capable of producing damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado or two -- continue moving eastward. Instability ahead of the convection weakens with eastward extent, particularly east of the mountains. However, pockets of near-surface-based CAPE in the 250 to 500 J/kg range will be possible through this afternoon -- enough to support broken/narrow frontal convective bands until the front moves offshore this evening. Despite the very weak instability, the deep-layer wind field will remain particularly strong -- including 40 to 60 kt as low as 1km AGL and increasing with height. As such, potential for convectively enhanced mixing/downward momentum transport appears to be sufficient to suggest the possibility if isolated severe-caliber wind gusts. This warrants eastward expansion of 5% wind probability/MRGL risk through the day, with risk ending as the front moves offshore this evening. ..Goss/Broyles.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN STATES...AND EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN U.S. COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible today from the west slopes of the Appalachians to western New England, the Mid-Atlantic Region, and portions of the Carolinas. ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing over the central U.S. this morning will continue to intensify as it gradually takes on a more negative tilt, shifting eastward across the eastern third of the U.S. through tonight. Meanwhile, weak ridging will generally prevail over the West, ahead of second trough over the Gulf of Alaska digging southeastward toward the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a strong cold front will cross the Appalachians through midday, and then continue across the eastern U.S., with the boundary moving off the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts this evening and lingering only across Florida overnight. In the West, a cold front will gradually shift southeastward into/across the Pacific Northwest. In between, high pressure will prevail across much of the country. ...Appalachian states... Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from the Lower Great Lakes region southwestward to the Mississippi Delta, along and ahead of the advancing cold front. The strongest storms are ongoing from the Upper Ohio Valley southwestward across Kentucky, where occasionally severe storms -- capable of producing damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado or two -- continue moving eastward. Instability ahead of the convection weakens with eastward extent, particularly east of the mountains. However, pockets of near-surface-based CAPE in the 250 to 500 J/kg range will be possible through this afternoon -- enough to support broken/narrow frontal convective bands until the front moves offshore this evening. Despite the very weak instability, the deep-layer wind field will remain particularly strong -- including 40 to 60 kt as low as 1km AGL and increasing with height. As such, potential for convectively enhanced mixing/downward momentum transport appears to be sufficient to suggest the possibility if isolated severe-caliber wind gusts. This warrants eastward expansion of 5% wind probability/MRGL risk through the day, with risk ending as the front moves offshore this evening. ..Goss/Broyles.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN STATES...AND EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN U.S. COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible today from the west slopes of the Appalachians to western New England, the Mid-Atlantic Region, and portions of the Carolinas. ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing over the central U.S. this morning will continue to intensify as it gradually takes on a more negative tilt, shifting eastward across the eastern third of the U.S. through tonight. Meanwhile, weak ridging will generally prevail over the West, ahead of second trough over the Gulf of Alaska digging southeastward toward the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a strong cold front will cross the Appalachians through midday, and then continue across the eastern U.S., with the boundary moving off the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts this evening and lingering only across Florida overnight. In the West, a cold front will gradually shift southeastward into/across the Pacific Northwest. In between, high pressure will prevail across much of the country. ...Appalachian states... Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from the Lower Great Lakes region southwestward to the Mississippi Delta, along and ahead of the advancing cold front. The strongest storms are ongoing from the Upper Ohio Valley southwestward across Kentucky, where occasionally severe storms -- capable of producing damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado or two -- continue moving eastward. Instability ahead of the convection weakens with eastward extent, particularly east of the mountains. However, pockets of near-surface-based CAPE in the 250 to 500 J/kg range will be possible through this afternoon -- enough to support broken/narrow frontal convective bands until the front moves offshore this evening. Despite the very weak instability, the deep-layer wind field will remain particularly strong -- including 40 to 60 kt as low as 1km AGL and increasing with height. As such, potential for convectively enhanced mixing/downward momentum transport appears to be sufficient to suggest the possibility if isolated severe-caliber wind gusts. This warrants eastward expansion of 5% wind probability/MRGL risk through the day, with risk ending as the front moves offshore this evening. ..Goss/Broyles.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN STATES...AND EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN U.S. COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible today from the west slopes of the Appalachians to western New England, the Mid-Atlantic Region, and portions of the Carolinas. ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing over the central U.S. this morning will continue to intensify as it gradually takes on a more negative tilt, shifting eastward across the eastern third of the U.S. through tonight. Meanwhile, weak ridging will generally prevail over the West, ahead of second trough over the Gulf of Alaska digging southeastward toward the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a strong cold front will cross the Appalachians through midday, and then continue across the eastern U.S., with the boundary moving off the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts this evening and lingering only across Florida overnight. In the West, a cold front will gradually shift southeastward into/across the Pacific Northwest. In between, high pressure will prevail across much of the country. ...Appalachian states... Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from the Lower Great Lakes region southwestward to the Mississippi Delta, along and ahead of the advancing cold front. The strongest storms are ongoing from the Upper Ohio Valley southwestward across Kentucky, where occasionally severe storms -- capable of producing damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado or two -- continue moving eastward. Instability ahead of the convection weakens with eastward extent, particularly east of the mountains. However, pockets of near-surface-based CAPE in the 250 to 500 J/kg range will be possible through this afternoon -- enough to support broken/narrow frontal convective bands until the front moves offshore this evening. Despite the very weak instability, the deep-layer wind field will remain particularly strong -- including 40 to 60 kt as low as 1km AGL and increasing with height. As such, potential for convectively enhanced mixing/downward momentum transport appears to be sufficient to suggest the possibility if isolated severe-caliber wind gusts. This warrants eastward expansion of 5% wind probability/MRGL risk through the day, with risk ending as the front moves offshore this evening. ..Goss/Broyles.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN STATES...AND EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN U.S. COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible today from the west slopes of the Appalachians to western New England, the Mid-Atlantic Region, and portions of the Carolinas. ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing over the central U.S. this morning will continue to intensify as it gradually takes on a more negative tilt, shifting eastward across the eastern third of the U.S. through tonight. Meanwhile, weak ridging will generally prevail over the West, ahead of second trough over the Gulf of Alaska digging southeastward toward the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a strong cold front will cross the Appalachians through midday, and then continue across the eastern U.S., with the boundary moving off the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts this evening and lingering only across Florida overnight. In the West, a cold front will gradually shift southeastward into/across the Pacific Northwest. In between, high pressure will prevail across much of the country. ...Appalachian states... Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from the Lower Great Lakes region southwestward to the Mississippi Delta, along and ahead of the advancing cold front. The strongest storms are ongoing from the Upper Ohio Valley southwestward across Kentucky, where occasionally severe storms -- capable of producing damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado or two -- continue moving eastward. Instability ahead of the convection weakens with eastward extent, particularly east of the mountains. However, pockets of near-surface-based CAPE in the 250 to 500 J/kg range will be possible through this afternoon -- enough to support broken/narrow frontal convective bands until the front moves offshore this evening. Despite the very weak instability, the deep-layer wind field will remain particularly strong -- including 40 to 60 kt as low as 1km AGL and increasing with height. As such, potential for convectively enhanced mixing/downward momentum transport appears to be sufficient to suggest the possibility if isolated severe-caliber wind gusts. This warrants eastward expansion of 5% wind probability/MRGL risk through the day, with risk ending as the front moves offshore this evening. ..Goss/Broyles.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN STATES...AND EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN U.S. COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible today from the west slopes of the Appalachians to western New England, the Mid-Atlantic Region, and portions of the Carolinas. ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing over the central U.S. this morning will continue to intensify as it gradually takes on a more negative tilt, shifting eastward across the eastern third of the U.S. through tonight. Meanwhile, weak ridging will generally prevail over the West, ahead of second trough over the Gulf of Alaska digging southeastward toward the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a strong cold front will cross the Appalachians through midday, and then continue across the eastern U.S., with the boundary moving off the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts this evening and lingering only across Florida overnight. In the West, a cold front will gradually shift southeastward into/across the Pacific Northwest. In between, high pressure will prevail across much of the country. ...Appalachian states... Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from the Lower Great Lakes region southwestward to the Mississippi Delta, along and ahead of the advancing cold front. The strongest storms are ongoing from the Upper Ohio Valley southwestward across Kentucky, where occasionally severe storms -- capable of producing damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado or two -- continue moving eastward. Instability ahead of the convection weakens with eastward extent, particularly east of the mountains. However, pockets of near-surface-based CAPE in the 250 to 500 J/kg range will be possible through this afternoon -- enough to support broken/narrow frontal convective bands until the front moves offshore this evening. Despite the very weak instability, the deep-layer wind field will remain particularly strong -- including 40 to 60 kt as low as 1km AGL and increasing with height. As such, potential for convectively enhanced mixing/downward momentum transport appears to be sufficient to suggest the possibility if isolated severe-caliber wind gusts. This warrants eastward expansion of 5% wind probability/MRGL risk through the day, with risk ending as the front moves offshore this evening. ..Goss/Broyles.. 02/28/2024 Read more

MD 0174 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 28...29... FOR OHIO..WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0174 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0508 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Areas affected...Ohio..Western West Virginia...Central and Eastern Kentucky Concerning...Tornado Watch 28...29... Valid 281108Z - 281315Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 28, 29 continues. SUMMARY...A tornado threat is expected to continue over the next few hours across parts of central and eastern Kentucky northward into southeast Ohio. Weather watch issuance or a watch extension in area may need to be considered to the east of the current watches. DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery from Wilmington, Ohio has a more extensive line segment in central and southern Ohio, containing multiple bowing structures. A tornado was recently reported with a bowing segment to the west of Columbus, Ohio. This part of the northern line is now located to the east of Columbus, and is expected to continue to have a tornado threat over the next hour or two. The severe threat, including a potential for hail and wind damage, may continue after daybreak. Further south in parts of central and eastern Kentucky, high-resolution radar shows a line of strong to severe storms from near Vanceburg, Kentucky southwestward to near Lexington. Strong to severe short bowing structures are evident within the line, with some supercells also present. This line is expected to continue to hold together as it moves eastward across the remainder of eastern Kentucky this morning. The strong low-level shear will likely support an isolated tornado threat. Hail and isolated damaging winds will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 02/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK... LAT...LON 40358275 40588175 40438080 39958056 39418067 38528124 37818199 37438299 37328369 37378438 37548473 37838474 38078441 38428386 39128315 39808295 40358275 Read more