Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... Across the western US, southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to intensify Saturday as a broad upper low moves onshore over the West Coast and begins to phase with the sub tropical jet. The strong flow aloft from the intensifying upper low will deepen a lee trough into a surface low over the northern Plains. The low will bolster surface winds across the Great Basin and Southwest, while gusty surface winds will extend eastward to the lee of the Rockies and over much of the Great Plains. With gusty winds overlapping areas of dry fuels and warm temperatures, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ...High Plains... To the west of the deepening lee trough, gusty west/southwest winds are expected to increase through the afternoon over parts of eastern CO, eastern NM, western KS, and the far western TX Panhandle. Widespread gusts of 20-25 mph are likely, overlapping with minimum humidity values of 10-20%. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns are likely, especially over parts of southeastern CO, western KS and eastern NM, where fuels are driest. Less confidence exists over part of the TX panhandle and northwest OK. Here, recent rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. Still, several days of drying may result in some potential for elevated and critical fire-weather conditions Saturday afternoon. ...Central Plains... As the lee trough continues to deepen into a broad lee low over the northern Plains, strong southerly winds are expected across much of the southern and central Plains. Ahead of the returning moisture, sustained winds of 20-25 mph are expected Saturday. While RH values may not reach nominal diurnal minimums, widespread RH below 30% is still likely. In combination with increasingly warm temperatures and very dry fuels, the gusty winds and marginally dry surface conditions should support at least a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential across parts of central/eastern KS into southern NE. Localized fire-weather concerns are also possible farther east into portions of MO, though lesser confidence in sustained winds and fuels exists here. ..Lyons.. 04/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... Across the western US, southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to intensify Saturday as a broad upper low moves onshore over the West Coast and begins to phase with the sub tropical jet. The strong flow aloft from the intensifying upper low will deepen a lee trough into a surface low over the northern Plains. The low will bolster surface winds across the Great Basin and Southwest, while gusty surface winds will extend eastward to the lee of the Rockies and over much of the Great Plains. With gusty winds overlapping areas of dry fuels and warm temperatures, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ...High Plains... To the west of the deepening lee trough, gusty west/southwest winds are expected to increase through the afternoon over parts of eastern CO, eastern NM, western KS, and the far western TX Panhandle. Widespread gusts of 20-25 mph are likely, overlapping with minimum humidity values of 10-20%. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns are likely, especially over parts of southeastern CO, western KS and eastern NM, where fuels are driest. Less confidence exists over part of the TX panhandle and northwest OK. Here, recent rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. Still, several days of drying may result in some potential for elevated and critical fire-weather conditions Saturday afternoon. ...Central Plains... As the lee trough continues to deepen into a broad lee low over the northern Plains, strong southerly winds are expected across much of the southern and central Plains. Ahead of the returning moisture, sustained winds of 20-25 mph are expected Saturday. While RH values may not reach nominal diurnal minimums, widespread RH below 30% is still likely. In combination with increasingly warm temperatures and very dry fuels, the gusty winds and marginally dry surface conditions should support at least a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential across parts of central/eastern KS into southern NE. Localized fire-weather concerns are also possible farther east into portions of MO, though lesser confidence in sustained winds and fuels exists here. ..Lyons.. 04/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... Across the western US, southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to intensify Saturday as a broad upper low moves onshore over the West Coast and begins to phase with the sub tropical jet. The strong flow aloft from the intensifying upper low will deepen a lee trough into a surface low over the northern Plains. The low will bolster surface winds across the Great Basin and Southwest, while gusty surface winds will extend eastward to the lee of the Rockies and over much of the Great Plains. With gusty winds overlapping areas of dry fuels and warm temperatures, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ...High Plains... To the west of the deepening lee trough, gusty west/southwest winds are expected to increase through the afternoon over parts of eastern CO, eastern NM, western KS, and the far western TX Panhandle. Widespread gusts of 20-25 mph are likely, overlapping with minimum humidity values of 10-20%. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns are likely, especially over parts of southeastern CO, western KS and eastern NM, where fuels are driest. Less confidence exists over part of the TX panhandle and northwest OK. Here, recent rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. Still, several days of drying may result in some potential for elevated and critical fire-weather conditions Saturday afternoon. ...Central Plains... As the lee trough continues to deepen into a broad lee low over the northern Plains, strong southerly winds are expected across much of the southern and central Plains. Ahead of the returning moisture, sustained winds of 20-25 mph are expected Saturday. While RH values may not reach nominal diurnal minimums, widespread RH below 30% is still likely. In combination with increasingly warm temperatures and very dry fuels, the gusty winds and marginally dry surface conditions should support at least a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential across parts of central/eastern KS into southern NE. Localized fire-weather concerns are also possible farther east into portions of MO, though lesser confidence in sustained winds and fuels exists here. ..Lyons.. 04/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... Across the western US, southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to intensify Saturday as a broad upper low moves onshore over the West Coast and begins to phase with the sub tropical jet. The strong flow aloft from the intensifying upper low will deepen a lee trough into a surface low over the northern Plains. The low will bolster surface winds across the Great Basin and Southwest, while gusty surface winds will extend eastward to the lee of the Rockies and over much of the Great Plains. With gusty winds overlapping areas of dry fuels and warm temperatures, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ...High Plains... To the west of the deepening lee trough, gusty west/southwest winds are expected to increase through the afternoon over parts of eastern CO, eastern NM, western KS, and the far western TX Panhandle. Widespread gusts of 20-25 mph are likely, overlapping with minimum humidity values of 10-20%. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns are likely, especially over parts of southeastern CO, western KS and eastern NM, where fuels are driest. Less confidence exists over part of the TX panhandle and northwest OK. Here, recent rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. Still, several days of drying may result in some potential for elevated and critical fire-weather conditions Saturday afternoon. ...Central Plains... As the lee trough continues to deepen into a broad lee low over the northern Plains, strong southerly winds are expected across much of the southern and central Plains. Ahead of the returning moisture, sustained winds of 20-25 mph are expected Saturday. While RH values may not reach nominal diurnal minimums, widespread RH below 30% is still likely. In combination with increasingly warm temperatures and very dry fuels, the gusty winds and marginally dry surface conditions should support at least a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential across parts of central/eastern KS into southern NE. Localized fire-weather concerns are also possible farther east into portions of MO, though lesser confidence in sustained winds and fuels exists here. ..Lyons.. 04/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... Across the western US, southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to intensify Saturday as a broad upper low moves onshore over the West Coast and begins to phase with the sub tropical jet. The strong flow aloft from the intensifying upper low will deepen a lee trough into a surface low over the northern Plains. The low will bolster surface winds across the Great Basin and Southwest, while gusty surface winds will extend eastward to the lee of the Rockies and over much of the Great Plains. With gusty winds overlapping areas of dry fuels and warm temperatures, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ...High Plains... To the west of the deepening lee trough, gusty west/southwest winds are expected to increase through the afternoon over parts of eastern CO, eastern NM, western KS, and the far western TX Panhandle. Widespread gusts of 20-25 mph are likely, overlapping with minimum humidity values of 10-20%. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns are likely, especially over parts of southeastern CO, western KS and eastern NM, where fuels are driest. Less confidence exists over part of the TX panhandle and northwest OK. Here, recent rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. Still, several days of drying may result in some potential for elevated and critical fire-weather conditions Saturday afternoon. ...Central Plains... As the lee trough continues to deepen into a broad lee low over the northern Plains, strong southerly winds are expected across much of the southern and central Plains. Ahead of the returning moisture, sustained winds of 20-25 mph are expected Saturday. While RH values may not reach nominal diurnal minimums, widespread RH below 30% is still likely. In combination with increasingly warm temperatures and very dry fuels, the gusty winds and marginally dry surface conditions should support at least a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential across parts of central/eastern KS into southern NE. Localized fire-weather concerns are also possible farther east into portions of MO, though lesser confidence in sustained winds and fuels exists here. ..Lyons.. 04/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... In the wake of the upper-level cyclone departing to the east, transient ridging aloft will give way to increasingly strong southwest flow over the southern Rockies. An embedded perturbation passing overhead will aid in deepening a lee trough over parts of the southern High Plains Friday. Downslope surface winds are forecast to increase through afternoon over part of eastern NM and southeastern CO. Dry southerly return flow is also possible across parts of the TX Rio Grande Valley. The gusty winds and low humidity will likely support elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Northeast New Mexico and southern Colorado... As flow aloft begins to strengthen ahead of the approaching shortwave trough, a deepening lee trough will bolster westerly surface flow over northeastern NM and southern CO. Dry downslope trajectories and daytime heating should support widespread minimum RH values of 10-15%. Overlapping with sustained surface winds of 15-25 mph, and dry fuels devoid of recent rainfall, several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of NM and southern CO. ...Texas Rio Grande Valley... To the east of the deepening lee trough, southerly winds are forest to increase through much of the day with the approach of the upper-level shortwave trough. With limited surface moisture in place behind the previous frontal passage, dry return flow is expected over parts of South TX and the central Rio Grande Valley. Periodic surface wind gusts of 15-20 mph and diurnal RH minimums of 15-20% may support a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Lyons.. 04/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... In the wake of the upper-level cyclone departing to the east, transient ridging aloft will give way to increasingly strong southwest flow over the southern Rockies. An embedded perturbation passing overhead will aid in deepening a lee trough over parts of the southern High Plains Friday. Downslope surface winds are forecast to increase through afternoon over part of eastern NM and southeastern CO. Dry southerly return flow is also possible across parts of the TX Rio Grande Valley. The gusty winds and low humidity will likely support elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Northeast New Mexico and southern Colorado... As flow aloft begins to strengthen ahead of the approaching shortwave trough, a deepening lee trough will bolster westerly surface flow over northeastern NM and southern CO. Dry downslope trajectories and daytime heating should support widespread minimum RH values of 10-15%. Overlapping with sustained surface winds of 15-25 mph, and dry fuels devoid of recent rainfall, several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of NM and southern CO. ...Texas Rio Grande Valley... To the east of the deepening lee trough, southerly winds are forest to increase through much of the day with the approach of the upper-level shortwave trough. With limited surface moisture in place behind the previous frontal passage, dry return flow is expected over parts of South TX and the central Rio Grande Valley. Periodic surface wind gusts of 15-20 mph and diurnal RH minimums of 15-20% may support a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Lyons.. 04/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... In the wake of the upper-level cyclone departing to the east, transient ridging aloft will give way to increasingly strong southwest flow over the southern Rockies. An embedded perturbation passing overhead will aid in deepening a lee trough over parts of the southern High Plains Friday. Downslope surface winds are forecast to increase through afternoon over part of eastern NM and southeastern CO. Dry southerly return flow is also possible across parts of the TX Rio Grande Valley. The gusty winds and low humidity will likely support elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Northeast New Mexico and southern Colorado... As flow aloft begins to strengthen ahead of the approaching shortwave trough, a deepening lee trough will bolster westerly surface flow over northeastern NM and southern CO. Dry downslope trajectories and daytime heating should support widespread minimum RH values of 10-15%. Overlapping with sustained surface winds of 15-25 mph, and dry fuels devoid of recent rainfall, several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of NM and southern CO. ...Texas Rio Grande Valley... To the east of the deepening lee trough, southerly winds are forest to increase through much of the day with the approach of the upper-level shortwave trough. With limited surface moisture in place behind the previous frontal passage, dry return flow is expected over parts of South TX and the central Rio Grande Valley. Periodic surface wind gusts of 15-20 mph and diurnal RH minimums of 15-20% may support a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Lyons.. 04/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... In the wake of the upper-level cyclone departing to the east, transient ridging aloft will give way to increasingly strong southwest flow over the southern Rockies. An embedded perturbation passing overhead will aid in deepening a lee trough over parts of the southern High Plains Friday. Downslope surface winds are forecast to increase through afternoon over part of eastern NM and southeastern CO. Dry southerly return flow is also possible across parts of the TX Rio Grande Valley. The gusty winds and low humidity will likely support elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Northeast New Mexico and southern Colorado... As flow aloft begins to strengthen ahead of the approaching shortwave trough, a deepening lee trough will bolster westerly surface flow over northeastern NM and southern CO. Dry downslope trajectories and daytime heating should support widespread minimum RH values of 10-15%. Overlapping with sustained surface winds of 15-25 mph, and dry fuels devoid of recent rainfall, several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of NM and southern CO. ...Texas Rio Grande Valley... To the east of the deepening lee trough, southerly winds are forest to increase through much of the day with the approach of the upper-level shortwave trough. With limited surface moisture in place behind the previous frontal passage, dry return flow is expected over parts of South TX and the central Rio Grande Valley. Periodic surface wind gusts of 15-20 mph and diurnal RH minimums of 15-20% may support a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Lyons.. 04/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... In the wake of the upper-level cyclone departing to the east, transient ridging aloft will give way to increasingly strong southwest flow over the southern Rockies. An embedded perturbation passing overhead will aid in deepening a lee trough over parts of the southern High Plains Friday. Downslope surface winds are forecast to increase through afternoon over part of eastern NM and southeastern CO. Dry southerly return flow is also possible across parts of the TX Rio Grande Valley. The gusty winds and low humidity will likely support elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Northeast New Mexico and southern Colorado... As flow aloft begins to strengthen ahead of the approaching shortwave trough, a deepening lee trough will bolster westerly surface flow over northeastern NM and southern CO. Dry downslope trajectories and daytime heating should support widespread minimum RH values of 10-15%. Overlapping with sustained surface winds of 15-25 mph, and dry fuels devoid of recent rainfall, several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of NM and southern CO. ...Texas Rio Grande Valley... To the east of the deepening lee trough, southerly winds are forest to increase through much of the day with the approach of the upper-level shortwave trough. With limited surface moisture in place behind the previous frontal passage, dry return flow is expected over parts of South TX and the central Rio Grande Valley. Periodic surface wind gusts of 15-20 mph and diurnal RH minimums of 15-20% may support a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Lyons.. 04/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0428 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 107... FOR EASTERN VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN MARYLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 0428 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Areas affected...Eastern Virginia...Southern Maryland Concerning...Tornado Watch 107... Valid 120415Z - 120615Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 107 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated wind damage and tornado threat will likely continue for a few more hours across eastern Virginia. The threat may eventually affect southern Maryland, but the need for another watch is unclear. DISCUSSION...An upper-level trough and an associated 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet, will move through Carolinas early tonight. Ahead of the trough, a 60 to 70 knot low-level jet will continue from eastern North Carolina into eastern Virginia and southern Maryland. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms, ongoing to the northwest of Wakefield, Virginia, will move eastward toward the low-level jet over the next couple of hours. RAP forecast soundings across eastern Virginia from 05Z to 06Z have 0-6 km shear near 60 knots, and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 350 m2/s2 range. This environment will support an isolated tornado and wind-damage threat with low-topped supercells, however recent trends suggest that the cloud tops have warmed, and lightning flash rates have come down. Although the severe threat should spread northeastward into southern Maryland early tonight, the threat should be marginal. ..Broyles.. 04/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX... LAT...LON 38477588 38867634 38967685 38937731 38527775 37867777 37267765 37037736 36977682 37237608 37697583 38477588 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OR... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail is possible across central Oregon between about 2 to 8 PM MDT on Saturday. ...OR... An amplified mid/upper low just off the central CA coast will dampen as it gradually wobbles inland near the Bay Area into the Central Valley by early Sunday. The initially meridional and fast mid-level jet east of the low will weaken somewhat as it flattens to a southwesterly orientation across south CA into the eastern Great Basin. Mid-level flow will become more backed and subside somewhat across the Northwest relative to Friday. But within the exit region of the mid-level jet, inland surface cyclogenesis will occur in the northwest NV/southeast OR vicinity. To the north of this cyclone, moderate elongation of the hodograph is anticipated with a sufficient wind profile to sustain a supercell or two. 00Z CAMs are fairly consistent with this signal across the central OR vicinity. Despite MLCAPE holding at or below 500 J/kg, isolated severe hail will be possible from mid-afternoon to early evening. ...Great Lakes... Poleward low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will become more pervasive across the central states on Saturday as a surface anticyclone drifts east in the northeast Gulf. This will occur beneath an increasingly broad elevated mixed layer. By Saturday night, strengthening low-level warm theta-e advection should yield at least isolated, highly elevated convection across northern WI and parts of MI. Available CAM guidance in this time frame is generally more sparse with coverage relative to convectively parameterized guidance. It seems likely that bulk of elevated convection will remain north-northeast of capping from the elevated mixed layer until perhaps close to the end of the period. MUCAPE should largely remain weak with only modest effective shear in the cloud-bearing layer. Small hail is possible with overall thunder probabilities from 10-20 percent. ...Central Great Plains... Guidance is consistent with indicating a minor mid-level impulse drifting east from the southern Rockies into KS/NE on Saturday, impinging on the full latitude mid-level ridge across the Great Plains. Rather deeply mixed thermodynamic profiles with LCL heights approaching 600 mb are expected within the modified moisture return ahead of a weak surface trough/dryline. 00Z CAMs outside of the HRRR are fairly consistent in simulating convective development with the HRW-FV3 the most aggressive of the HREF members. MLCAPE should be meager at most, but a locally strong gust from the high-based, low-topped convection is possible given such large DCAPE. ..Grams.. 04/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OR... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail is possible across central Oregon between about 2 to 8 PM MDT on Saturday. ...OR... An amplified mid/upper low just off the central CA coast will dampen as it gradually wobbles inland near the Bay Area into the Central Valley by early Sunday. The initially meridional and fast mid-level jet east of the low will weaken somewhat as it flattens to a southwesterly orientation across south CA into the eastern Great Basin. Mid-level flow will become more backed and subside somewhat across the Northwest relative to Friday. But within the exit region of the mid-level jet, inland surface cyclogenesis will occur in the northwest NV/southeast OR vicinity. To the north of this cyclone, moderate elongation of the hodograph is anticipated with a sufficient wind profile to sustain a supercell or two. 00Z CAMs are fairly consistent with this signal across the central OR vicinity. Despite MLCAPE holding at or below 500 J/kg, isolated severe hail will be possible from mid-afternoon to early evening. ...Great Lakes... Poleward low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will become more pervasive across the central states on Saturday as a surface anticyclone drifts east in the northeast Gulf. This will occur beneath an increasingly broad elevated mixed layer. By Saturday night, strengthening low-level warm theta-e advection should yield at least isolated, highly elevated convection across northern WI and parts of MI. Available CAM guidance in this time frame is generally more sparse with coverage relative to convectively parameterized guidance. It seems likely that bulk of elevated convection will remain north-northeast of capping from the elevated mixed layer until perhaps close to the end of the period. MUCAPE should largely remain weak with only modest effective shear in the cloud-bearing layer. Small hail is possible with overall thunder probabilities from 10-20 percent. ...Central Great Plains... Guidance is consistent with indicating a minor mid-level impulse drifting east from the southern Rockies into KS/NE on Saturday, impinging on the full latitude mid-level ridge across the Great Plains. Rather deeply mixed thermodynamic profiles with LCL heights approaching 600 mb are expected within the modified moisture return ahead of a weak surface trough/dryline. 00Z CAMs outside of the HRRR are fairly consistent in simulating convective development with the HRW-FV3 the most aggressive of the HREF members. MLCAPE should be meager at most, but a locally strong gust from the high-based, low-topped convection is possible given such large DCAPE. ..Grams.. 04/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OR... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail is possible across central Oregon between about 2 to 8 PM MDT on Saturday. ...OR... An amplified mid/upper low just off the central CA coast will dampen as it gradually wobbles inland near the Bay Area into the Central Valley by early Sunday. The initially meridional and fast mid-level jet east of the low will weaken somewhat as it flattens to a southwesterly orientation across south CA into the eastern Great Basin. Mid-level flow will become more backed and subside somewhat across the Northwest relative to Friday. But within the exit region of the mid-level jet, inland surface cyclogenesis will occur in the northwest NV/southeast OR vicinity. To the north of this cyclone, moderate elongation of the hodograph is anticipated with a sufficient wind profile to sustain a supercell or two. 00Z CAMs are fairly consistent with this signal across the central OR vicinity. Despite MLCAPE holding at or below 500 J/kg, isolated severe hail will be possible from mid-afternoon to early evening. ...Great Lakes... Poleward low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will become more pervasive across the central states on Saturday as a surface anticyclone drifts east in the northeast Gulf. This will occur beneath an increasingly broad elevated mixed layer. By Saturday night, strengthening low-level warm theta-e advection should yield at least isolated, highly elevated convection across northern WI and parts of MI. Available CAM guidance in this time frame is generally more sparse with coverage relative to convectively parameterized guidance. It seems likely that bulk of elevated convection will remain north-northeast of capping from the elevated mixed layer until perhaps close to the end of the period. MUCAPE should largely remain weak with only modest effective shear in the cloud-bearing layer. Small hail is possible with overall thunder probabilities from 10-20 percent. ...Central Great Plains... Guidance is consistent with indicating a minor mid-level impulse drifting east from the southern Rockies into KS/NE on Saturday, impinging on the full latitude mid-level ridge across the Great Plains. Rather deeply mixed thermodynamic profiles with LCL heights approaching 600 mb are expected within the modified moisture return ahead of a weak surface trough/dryline. 00Z CAMs outside of the HRRR are fairly consistent in simulating convective development with the HRW-FV3 the most aggressive of the HREF members. MLCAPE should be meager at most, but a locally strong gust from the high-based, low-topped convection is possible given such large DCAPE. ..Grams.. 04/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OR... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail is possible across central Oregon between about 2 to 8 PM MDT on Saturday. ...OR... An amplified mid/upper low just off the central CA coast will dampen as it gradually wobbles inland near the Bay Area into the Central Valley by early Sunday. The initially meridional and fast mid-level jet east of the low will weaken somewhat as it flattens to a southwesterly orientation across south CA into the eastern Great Basin. Mid-level flow will become more backed and subside somewhat across the Northwest relative to Friday. But within the exit region of the mid-level jet, inland surface cyclogenesis will occur in the northwest NV/southeast OR vicinity. To the north of this cyclone, moderate elongation of the hodograph is anticipated with a sufficient wind profile to sustain a supercell or two. 00Z CAMs are fairly consistent with this signal across the central OR vicinity. Despite MLCAPE holding at or below 500 J/kg, isolated severe hail will be possible from mid-afternoon to early evening. ...Great Lakes... Poleward low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will become more pervasive across the central states on Saturday as a surface anticyclone drifts east in the northeast Gulf. This will occur beneath an increasingly broad elevated mixed layer. By Saturday night, strengthening low-level warm theta-e advection should yield at least isolated, highly elevated convection across northern WI and parts of MI. Available CAM guidance in this time frame is generally more sparse with coverage relative to convectively parameterized guidance. It seems likely that bulk of elevated convection will remain north-northeast of capping from the elevated mixed layer until perhaps close to the end of the period. MUCAPE should largely remain weak with only modest effective shear in the cloud-bearing layer. Small hail is possible with overall thunder probabilities from 10-20 percent. ...Central Great Plains... Guidance is consistent with indicating a minor mid-level impulse drifting east from the southern Rockies into KS/NE on Saturday, impinging on the full latitude mid-level ridge across the Great Plains. Rather deeply mixed thermodynamic profiles with LCL heights approaching 600 mb are expected within the modified moisture return ahead of a weak surface trough/dryline. 00Z CAMs outside of the HRRR are fairly consistent in simulating convective development with the HRW-FV3 the most aggressive of the HREF members. MLCAPE should be meager at most, but a locally strong gust from the high-based, low-topped convection is possible given such large DCAPE. ..Grams.. 04/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OR... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail is possible across central Oregon between about 2 to 8 PM MDT on Saturday. ...OR... An amplified mid/upper low just off the central CA coast will dampen as it gradually wobbles inland near the Bay Area into the Central Valley by early Sunday. The initially meridional and fast mid-level jet east of the low will weaken somewhat as it flattens to a southwesterly orientation across south CA into the eastern Great Basin. Mid-level flow will become more backed and subside somewhat across the Northwest relative to Friday. But within the exit region of the mid-level jet, inland surface cyclogenesis will occur in the northwest NV/southeast OR vicinity. To the north of this cyclone, moderate elongation of the hodograph is anticipated with a sufficient wind profile to sustain a supercell or two. 00Z CAMs are fairly consistent with this signal across the central OR vicinity. Despite MLCAPE holding at or below 500 J/kg, isolated severe hail will be possible from mid-afternoon to early evening. ...Great Lakes... Poleward low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will become more pervasive across the central states on Saturday as a surface anticyclone drifts east in the northeast Gulf. This will occur beneath an increasingly broad elevated mixed layer. By Saturday night, strengthening low-level warm theta-e advection should yield at least isolated, highly elevated convection across northern WI and parts of MI. Available CAM guidance in this time frame is generally more sparse with coverage relative to convectively parameterized guidance. It seems likely that bulk of elevated convection will remain north-northeast of capping from the elevated mixed layer until perhaps close to the end of the period. MUCAPE should largely remain weak with only modest effective shear in the cloud-bearing layer. Small hail is possible with overall thunder probabilities from 10-20 percent. ...Central Great Plains... Guidance is consistent with indicating a minor mid-level impulse drifting east from the southern Rockies into KS/NE on Saturday, impinging on the full latitude mid-level ridge across the Great Plains. Rather deeply mixed thermodynamic profiles with LCL heights approaching 600 mb are expected within the modified moisture return ahead of a weak surface trough/dryline. 00Z CAMs outside of the HRRR are fairly consistent in simulating convective development with the HRW-FV3 the most aggressive of the HREF members. MLCAPE should be meager at most, but a locally strong gust from the high-based, low-topped convection is possible given such large DCAPE. ..Grams.. 04/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OR... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail is possible across central Oregon between about 2 to 8 PM MDT on Saturday. ...OR... An amplified mid/upper low just off the central CA coast will dampen as it gradually wobbles inland near the Bay Area into the Central Valley by early Sunday. The initially meridional and fast mid-level jet east of the low will weaken somewhat as it flattens to a southwesterly orientation across south CA into the eastern Great Basin. Mid-level flow will become more backed and subside somewhat across the Northwest relative to Friday. But within the exit region of the mid-level jet, inland surface cyclogenesis will occur in the northwest NV/southeast OR vicinity. To the north of this cyclone, moderate elongation of the hodograph is anticipated with a sufficient wind profile to sustain a supercell or two. 00Z CAMs are fairly consistent with this signal across the central OR vicinity. Despite MLCAPE holding at or below 500 J/kg, isolated severe hail will be possible from mid-afternoon to early evening. ...Great Lakes... Poleward low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will become more pervasive across the central states on Saturday as a surface anticyclone drifts east in the northeast Gulf. This will occur beneath an increasingly broad elevated mixed layer. By Saturday night, strengthening low-level warm theta-e advection should yield at least isolated, highly elevated convection across northern WI and parts of MI. Available CAM guidance in this time frame is generally more sparse with coverage relative to convectively parameterized guidance. It seems likely that bulk of elevated convection will remain north-northeast of capping from the elevated mixed layer until perhaps close to the end of the period. MUCAPE should largely remain weak with only modest effective shear in the cloud-bearing layer. Small hail is possible with overall thunder probabilities from 10-20 percent. ...Central Great Plains... Guidance is consistent with indicating a minor mid-level impulse drifting east from the southern Rockies into KS/NE on Saturday, impinging on the full latitude mid-level ridge across the Great Plains. Rather deeply mixed thermodynamic profiles with LCL heights approaching 600 mb are expected within the modified moisture return ahead of a weak surface trough/dryline. 00Z CAMs outside of the HRRR are fairly consistent in simulating convective development with the HRW-FV3 the most aggressive of the HREF members. MLCAPE should be meager at most, but a locally strong gust from the high-based, low-topped convection is possible given such large DCAPE. ..Grams.. 04/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OR... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail is possible across central Oregon between about 2 to 8 PM MDT on Saturday. ...OR... An amplified mid/upper low just off the central CA coast will dampen as it gradually wobbles inland near the Bay Area into the Central Valley by early Sunday. The initially meridional and fast mid-level jet east of the low will weaken somewhat as it flattens to a southwesterly orientation across south CA into the eastern Great Basin. Mid-level flow will become more backed and subside somewhat across the Northwest relative to Friday. But within the exit region of the mid-level jet, inland surface cyclogenesis will occur in the northwest NV/southeast OR vicinity. To the north of this cyclone, moderate elongation of the hodograph is anticipated with a sufficient wind profile to sustain a supercell or two. 00Z CAMs are fairly consistent with this signal across the central OR vicinity. Despite MLCAPE holding at or below 500 J/kg, isolated severe hail will be possible from mid-afternoon to early evening. ...Great Lakes... Poleward low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will become more pervasive across the central states on Saturday as a surface anticyclone drifts east in the northeast Gulf. This will occur beneath an increasingly broad elevated mixed layer. By Saturday night, strengthening low-level warm theta-e advection should yield at least isolated, highly elevated convection across northern WI and parts of MI. Available CAM guidance in this time frame is generally more sparse with coverage relative to convectively parameterized guidance. It seems likely that bulk of elevated convection will remain north-northeast of capping from the elevated mixed layer until perhaps close to the end of the period. MUCAPE should largely remain weak with only modest effective shear in the cloud-bearing layer. Small hail is possible with overall thunder probabilities from 10-20 percent. ...Central Great Plains... Guidance is consistent with indicating a minor mid-level impulse drifting east from the southern Rockies into KS/NE on Saturday, impinging on the full latitude mid-level ridge across the Great Plains. Rather deeply mixed thermodynamic profiles with LCL heights approaching 600 mb are expected within the modified moisture return ahead of a weak surface trough/dryline. 00Z CAMs outside of the HRRR are fairly consistent in simulating convective development with the HRW-FV3 the most aggressive of the HREF members. MLCAPE should be meager at most, but a locally strong gust from the high-based, low-topped convection is possible given such large DCAPE. ..Grams.. 04/12/2024 Read more

MD 0427 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0427 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Areas affected...Northeast North Carolina...Southeast Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 120336Z - 120600Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may continue for a few more hours across parts of northeastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia. The threat should be too marginal for weather watch issuance. DISCUSSION...An upper-level trough is currently moving through the southern Appalachians according to water vapor imagery. Ahead of the trough, the RAP is analyzing a 60 to 70 knot low-level jet from eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia. Thunderstorms are developing to the west of the low-level jet in a strongly sheared environment, where 0-6 km shear is 50 to 60 knots and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is around 350 m2/s2, according to the Raleigh WSR-88D VWP. This should support an isolated tornado threat with low-topped supercells. An isolated wind-damage threat will also be possible. However, the storms will continue to move northeastward toward the coast where instability is considerably weaker. The boundary layer will also continue to cool contributing to a more stable airmass. This should result in a severe threat becoming more marginal with time. ..Broyles/Thompson.. 04/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH... LAT...LON 36957584 37187643 36857723 36257799 35827838 35587837 35397817 35307780 35397698 35757626 36067583 36437566 36957584 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN INTER MOUNTAIN REGION... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe wind gusts and hail are possible over northern Nevada, eastern Oregon, and western Idaho during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Northern Inter Mountain Region... Upper low is forecast to settle southeast toward the northern CA Coast late in the day1 period. This evolution will ensure short-wave ridging holds across the northern Rockies, effectively suppressing any appreciable large-scale ascent. Even so, some moistening is expected across this region, albeit meager, as meridional flow across northern CA/eastern OR will encourage PW values to exceed 0.50 inch within a warm-advection regime. Latest model guidance suggests some boundary-layer heating will contribute to weak buoyancy within a strongly sheared environment. Isolated-scattered convection is expected to develop across northwestern NV/eastern OR extending into the northern Rockies of western MT by late afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest gusty winds may accompany some of this convection, and marginally severe hail may also be noted with the most robust updrafts. Boundary-layer cooling should result in weakening convection during the mid-evening hours. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 04/12/2024 Read more