Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... In the wake of Wednesday's frontal passage, a dry continental air mass will be in place east of the Rockies, with any notable low-level moisture confined the Gulf of Mexico. Even so, mid-level moisture and ascent attendant to a southern-stream shortwave trough forecast to progress across the southern Plains may support a few thunderstorms across north/central TX during the afternoon and evening. Higher thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later in the period from southeast TX into the Lower MS Valley, where more mid-level moisture will promote elevated buoyancy and greater storm depth. Limited buoyancy should keep the severe thunderstorm potential very low. Farther west, upper troughing is expected to gradually spread eastward across the Pacific Northwest throughout the day. An embedded shortwave is forecast to progress through this troughing, reaching the Pacific Northwest coast by Thursday afternoon before continuing northeastward across the interior Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies Thursday night into Friday morning. Some deeper convective cores are possible within the frontal band associated with this shortwave, but the general expectation for these cores to remain too shallow for lightning production. Mid-level temperatures will continue to cool in the wake of this wave, dropping below -30 deg C at 500-mb by late Thursday afternoon. Low to mid-level moisture will remain rather scant, but this cooling aloft should still result in the development of minimal buoyancy along the coast. Greater storm depth should result, which should contribute to more thunderstorms and higher overall thunderstorm coverage. ..Mosier.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... In the wake of Wednesday's frontal passage, a dry continental air mass will be in place east of the Rockies, with any notable low-level moisture confined the Gulf of Mexico. Even so, mid-level moisture and ascent attendant to a southern-stream shortwave trough forecast to progress across the southern Plains may support a few thunderstorms across north/central TX during the afternoon and evening. Higher thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later in the period from southeast TX into the Lower MS Valley, where more mid-level moisture will promote elevated buoyancy and greater storm depth. Limited buoyancy should keep the severe thunderstorm potential very low. Farther west, upper troughing is expected to gradually spread eastward across the Pacific Northwest throughout the day. An embedded shortwave is forecast to progress through this troughing, reaching the Pacific Northwest coast by Thursday afternoon before continuing northeastward across the interior Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies Thursday night into Friday morning. Some deeper convective cores are possible within the frontal band associated with this shortwave, but the general expectation for these cores to remain too shallow for lightning production. Mid-level temperatures will continue to cool in the wake of this wave, dropping below -30 deg C at 500-mb by late Thursday afternoon. Low to mid-level moisture will remain rather scant, but this cooling aloft should still result in the development of minimal buoyancy along the coast. Greater storm depth should result, which should contribute to more thunderstorms and higher overall thunderstorm coverage. ..Mosier.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... In the wake of Wednesday's frontal passage, a dry continental air mass will be in place east of the Rockies, with any notable low-level moisture confined the Gulf of Mexico. Even so, mid-level moisture and ascent attendant to a southern-stream shortwave trough forecast to progress across the southern Plains may support a few thunderstorms across north/central TX during the afternoon and evening. Higher thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later in the period from southeast TX into the Lower MS Valley, where more mid-level moisture will promote elevated buoyancy and greater storm depth. Limited buoyancy should keep the severe thunderstorm potential very low. Farther west, upper troughing is expected to gradually spread eastward across the Pacific Northwest throughout the day. An embedded shortwave is forecast to progress through this troughing, reaching the Pacific Northwest coast by Thursday afternoon before continuing northeastward across the interior Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies Thursday night into Friday morning. Some deeper convective cores are possible within the frontal band associated with this shortwave, but the general expectation for these cores to remain too shallow for lightning production. Mid-level temperatures will continue to cool in the wake of this wave, dropping below -30 deg C at 500-mb by late Thursday afternoon. Low to mid-level moisture will remain rather scant, but this cooling aloft should still result in the development of minimal buoyancy along the coast. Greater storm depth should result, which should contribute to more thunderstorms and higher overall thunderstorm coverage. ..Mosier.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... In the wake of Wednesday's frontal passage, a dry continental air mass will be in place east of the Rockies, with any notable low-level moisture confined the Gulf of Mexico. Even so, mid-level moisture and ascent attendant to a southern-stream shortwave trough forecast to progress across the southern Plains may support a few thunderstorms across north/central TX during the afternoon and evening. Higher thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later in the period from southeast TX into the Lower MS Valley, where more mid-level moisture will promote elevated buoyancy and greater storm depth. Limited buoyancy should keep the severe thunderstorm potential very low. Farther west, upper troughing is expected to gradually spread eastward across the Pacific Northwest throughout the day. An embedded shortwave is forecast to progress through this troughing, reaching the Pacific Northwest coast by Thursday afternoon before continuing northeastward across the interior Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies Thursday night into Friday morning. Some deeper convective cores are possible within the frontal band associated with this shortwave, but the general expectation for these cores to remain too shallow for lightning production. Mid-level temperatures will continue to cool in the wake of this wave, dropping below -30 deg C at 500-mb by late Thursday afternoon. Low to mid-level moisture will remain rather scant, but this cooling aloft should still result in the development of minimal buoyancy along the coast. Greater storm depth should result, which should contribute to more thunderstorms and higher overall thunderstorm coverage. ..Mosier.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... In the wake of Wednesday's frontal passage, a dry continental air mass will be in place east of the Rockies, with any notable low-level moisture confined the Gulf of Mexico. Even so, mid-level moisture and ascent attendant to a southern-stream shortwave trough forecast to progress across the southern Plains may support a few thunderstorms across north/central TX during the afternoon and evening. Higher thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later in the period from southeast TX into the Lower MS Valley, where more mid-level moisture will promote elevated buoyancy and greater storm depth. Limited buoyancy should keep the severe thunderstorm potential very low. Farther west, upper troughing is expected to gradually spread eastward across the Pacific Northwest throughout the day. An embedded shortwave is forecast to progress through this troughing, reaching the Pacific Northwest coast by Thursday afternoon before continuing northeastward across the interior Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies Thursday night into Friday morning. Some deeper convective cores are possible within the frontal band associated with this shortwave, but the general expectation for these cores to remain too shallow for lightning production. Mid-level temperatures will continue to cool in the wake of this wave, dropping below -30 deg C at 500-mb by late Thursday afternoon. Low to mid-level moisture will remain rather scant, but this cooling aloft should still result in the development of minimal buoyancy along the coast. Greater storm depth should result, which should contribute to more thunderstorms and higher overall thunderstorm coverage. ..Mosier.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... In the wake of Wednesday's frontal passage, a dry continental air mass will be in place east of the Rockies, with any notable low-level moisture confined the Gulf of Mexico. Even so, mid-level moisture and ascent attendant to a southern-stream shortwave trough forecast to progress across the southern Plains may support a few thunderstorms across north/central TX during the afternoon and evening. Higher thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later in the period from southeast TX into the Lower MS Valley, where more mid-level moisture will promote elevated buoyancy and greater storm depth. Limited buoyancy should keep the severe thunderstorm potential very low. Farther west, upper troughing is expected to gradually spread eastward across the Pacific Northwest throughout the day. An embedded shortwave is forecast to progress through this troughing, reaching the Pacific Northwest coast by Thursday afternoon before continuing northeastward across the interior Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies Thursday night into Friday morning. Some deeper convective cores are possible within the frontal band associated with this shortwave, but the general expectation for these cores to remain too shallow for lightning production. Mid-level temperatures will continue to cool in the wake of this wave, dropping below -30 deg C at 500-mb by late Thursday afternoon. Low to mid-level moisture will remain rather scant, but this cooling aloft should still result in the development of minimal buoyancy along the coast. Greater storm depth should result, which should contribute to more thunderstorms and higher overall thunderstorm coverage. ..Mosier.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... In the wake of Wednesday's frontal passage, a dry continental air mass will be in place east of the Rockies, with any notable low-level moisture confined the Gulf of Mexico. Even so, mid-level moisture and ascent attendant to a southern-stream shortwave trough forecast to progress across the southern Plains may support a few thunderstorms across north/central TX during the afternoon and evening. Higher thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later in the period from southeast TX into the Lower MS Valley, where more mid-level moisture will promote elevated buoyancy and greater storm depth. Limited buoyancy should keep the severe thunderstorm potential very low. Farther west, upper troughing is expected to gradually spread eastward across the Pacific Northwest throughout the day. An embedded shortwave is forecast to progress through this troughing, reaching the Pacific Northwest coast by Thursday afternoon before continuing northeastward across the interior Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies Thursday night into Friday morning. Some deeper convective cores are possible within the frontal band associated with this shortwave, but the general expectation for these cores to remain too shallow for lightning production. Mid-level temperatures will continue to cool in the wake of this wave, dropping below -30 deg C at 500-mb by late Thursday afternoon. Low to mid-level moisture will remain rather scant, but this cooling aloft should still result in the development of minimal buoyancy along the coast. Greater storm depth should result, which should contribute to more thunderstorms and higher overall thunderstorm coverage. ..Mosier.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... In the wake of Wednesday's frontal passage, a dry continental air mass will be in place east of the Rockies, with any notable low-level moisture confined the Gulf of Mexico. Even so, mid-level moisture and ascent attendant to a southern-stream shortwave trough forecast to progress across the southern Plains may support a few thunderstorms across north/central TX during the afternoon and evening. Higher thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later in the period from southeast TX into the Lower MS Valley, where more mid-level moisture will promote elevated buoyancy and greater storm depth. Limited buoyancy should keep the severe thunderstorm potential very low. Farther west, upper troughing is expected to gradually spread eastward across the Pacific Northwest throughout the day. An embedded shortwave is forecast to progress through this troughing, reaching the Pacific Northwest coast by Thursday afternoon before continuing northeastward across the interior Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies Thursday night into Friday morning. Some deeper convective cores are possible within the frontal band associated with this shortwave, but the general expectation for these cores to remain too shallow for lightning production. Mid-level temperatures will continue to cool in the wake of this wave, dropping below -30 deg C at 500-mb by late Thursday afternoon. Low to mid-level moisture will remain rather scant, but this cooling aloft should still result in the development of minimal buoyancy along the coast. Greater storm depth should result, which should contribute to more thunderstorms and higher overall thunderstorm coverage. ..Mosier.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. The previous forecast reasoning remains valid. ..Wendt.. 02/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... An intensifying mid-level trough will quickly move eastward over the Atlantic coast as ridging develops over the western CONUS. Beneath the ridge, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move out of northern Mexico across the Southwest and west TX. A powerful cold front over the Plains will continue south, ushering in a much colder air mass. With cooler temperatures and gradually weakening winds expected within the post-frontal air mass, overall fire-weather concerns appear low for much of the Plains. One exception may be across parts of south TX and the Rio Grande Valley. Here, area fuels are dry and RH values may still fall below 25% briefly. Combined with north/northeast winds near 20 mph, brief, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Dry and breezy conditions may also persist behind the front across parts of AR and the lower MS Valley. However, widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. The previous forecast reasoning remains valid. ..Wendt.. 02/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... An intensifying mid-level trough will quickly move eastward over the Atlantic coast as ridging develops over the western CONUS. Beneath the ridge, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move out of northern Mexico across the Southwest and west TX. A powerful cold front over the Plains will continue south, ushering in a much colder air mass. With cooler temperatures and gradually weakening winds expected within the post-frontal air mass, overall fire-weather concerns appear low for much of the Plains. One exception may be across parts of south TX and the Rio Grande Valley. Here, area fuels are dry and RH values may still fall below 25% briefly. Combined with north/northeast winds near 20 mph, brief, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Dry and breezy conditions may also persist behind the front across parts of AR and the lower MS Valley. However, widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. The previous forecast reasoning remains valid. ..Wendt.. 02/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... An intensifying mid-level trough will quickly move eastward over the Atlantic coast as ridging develops over the western CONUS. Beneath the ridge, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move out of northern Mexico across the Southwest and west TX. A powerful cold front over the Plains will continue south, ushering in a much colder air mass. With cooler temperatures and gradually weakening winds expected within the post-frontal air mass, overall fire-weather concerns appear low for much of the Plains. One exception may be across parts of south TX and the Rio Grande Valley. Here, area fuels are dry and RH values may still fall below 25% briefly. Combined with north/northeast winds near 20 mph, brief, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Dry and breezy conditions may also persist behind the front across parts of AR and the lower MS Valley. However, widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. The previous forecast reasoning remains valid. ..Wendt.. 02/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... An intensifying mid-level trough will quickly move eastward over the Atlantic coast as ridging develops over the western CONUS. Beneath the ridge, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move out of northern Mexico across the Southwest and west TX. A powerful cold front over the Plains will continue south, ushering in a much colder air mass. With cooler temperatures and gradually weakening winds expected within the post-frontal air mass, overall fire-weather concerns appear low for much of the Plains. One exception may be across parts of south TX and the Rio Grande Valley. Here, area fuels are dry and RH values may still fall below 25% briefly. Combined with north/northeast winds near 20 mph, brief, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Dry and breezy conditions may also persist behind the front across parts of AR and the lower MS Valley. However, widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. The previous forecast reasoning remains valid. ..Wendt.. 02/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... An intensifying mid-level trough will quickly move eastward over the Atlantic coast as ridging develops over the western CONUS. Beneath the ridge, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move out of northern Mexico across the Southwest and west TX. A powerful cold front over the Plains will continue south, ushering in a much colder air mass. With cooler temperatures and gradually weakening winds expected within the post-frontal air mass, overall fire-weather concerns appear low for much of the Plains. One exception may be across parts of south TX and the Rio Grande Valley. Here, area fuels are dry and RH values may still fall below 25% briefly. Combined with north/northeast winds near 20 mph, brief, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Dry and breezy conditions may also persist behind the front across parts of AR and the lower MS Valley. However, widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. The previous forecast reasoning remains valid. ..Wendt.. 02/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... An intensifying mid-level trough will quickly move eastward over the Atlantic coast as ridging develops over the western CONUS. Beneath the ridge, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move out of northern Mexico across the Southwest and west TX. A powerful cold front over the Plains will continue south, ushering in a much colder air mass. With cooler temperatures and gradually weakening winds expected within the post-frontal air mass, overall fire-weather concerns appear low for much of the Plains. One exception may be across parts of south TX and the Rio Grande Valley. Here, area fuels are dry and RH values may still fall below 25% briefly. Combined with north/northeast winds near 20 mph, brief, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Dry and breezy conditions may also persist behind the front across parts of AR and the lower MS Valley. However, widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. The previous forecast reasoning remains valid. ..Wendt.. 02/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... An intensifying mid-level trough will quickly move eastward over the Atlantic coast as ridging develops over the western CONUS. Beneath the ridge, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move out of northern Mexico across the Southwest and west TX. A powerful cold front over the Plains will continue south, ushering in a much colder air mass. With cooler temperatures and gradually weakening winds expected within the post-frontal air mass, overall fire-weather concerns appear low for much of the Plains. One exception may be across parts of south TX and the Rio Grande Valley. Here, area fuels are dry and RH values may still fall below 25% briefly. Combined with north/northeast winds near 20 mph, brief, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Dry and breezy conditions may also persist behind the front across parts of AR and the lower MS Valley. However, widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. The previous forecast reasoning remains valid. ..Wendt.. 02/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... An intensifying mid-level trough will quickly move eastward over the Atlantic coast as ridging develops over the western CONUS. Beneath the ridge, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move out of northern Mexico across the Southwest and west TX. A powerful cold front over the Plains will continue south, ushering in a much colder air mass. With cooler temperatures and gradually weakening winds expected within the post-frontal air mass, overall fire-weather concerns appear low for much of the Plains. One exception may be across parts of south TX and the Rio Grande Valley. Here, area fuels are dry and RH values may still fall below 25% briefly. Combined with north/northeast winds near 20 mph, brief, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Dry and breezy conditions may also persist behind the front across parts of AR and the lower MS Valley. However, widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. The previous forecast reasoning remains valid. ..Wendt.. 02/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... An intensifying mid-level trough will quickly move eastward over the Atlantic coast as ridging develops over the western CONUS. Beneath the ridge, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move out of northern Mexico across the Southwest and west TX. A powerful cold front over the Plains will continue south, ushering in a much colder air mass. With cooler temperatures and gradually weakening winds expected within the post-frontal air mass, overall fire-weather concerns appear low for much of the Plains. One exception may be across parts of south TX and the Rio Grande Valley. Here, area fuels are dry and RH values may still fall below 25% briefly. Combined with north/northeast winds near 20 mph, brief, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Dry and breezy conditions may also persist behind the front across parts of AR and the lower MS Valley. However, widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. The previous forecast reasoning remains valid. ..Wendt.. 02/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... An intensifying mid-level trough will quickly move eastward over the Atlantic coast as ridging develops over the western CONUS. Beneath the ridge, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move out of northern Mexico across the Southwest and west TX. A powerful cold front over the Plains will continue south, ushering in a much colder air mass. With cooler temperatures and gradually weakening winds expected within the post-frontal air mass, overall fire-weather concerns appear low for much of the Plains. One exception may be across parts of south TX and the Rio Grande Valley. Here, area fuels are dry and RH values may still fall below 25% briefly. Combined with north/northeast winds near 20 mph, brief, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Dry and breezy conditions may also persist behind the front across parts of AR and the lower MS Valley. However, widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0176 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR TN VALLEY TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
Mesoscale Discussion 0176 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0856 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Areas affected...TN Valley to southern Appalachians Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 281456Z - 281700Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Southern portion of a low-topped squall line should continue eastward across parts of the Tennessee Valley through at least midday. Strong to localized severe wind gusts capable of sporadic damage should be the primary threat. DISCUSSION...The southern portion of a long, but thin, low-topped (echo tops to around 30k ft) squall line extends as far south as northeast MS. Large-scale ascent, outside of low-level convergence attendant to the southeast-moving cold front, will be gradually weakening across the region into the afternoon. However, a few cloud breaks noted ahead of the line should yield modest boundary-layer destabilization. In conjunction with the northeast extent of low 60s surface dew points, the relatively more favorable thermodynamic environment should compensate for the diminishing ascent and will probably sustain the low-topped convective line eastward through at least midday. This scenario is generally supported by 12Z CAM guidance. With veered surface and low-level flow, increasing to 40-45 kts at 1 km AGL, the primary threat should be strong to locally severe surface gusts, peaking in the 50-65 mph range. A 53-kt gust was measured at KMSL at 1437Z. ..Grams/Guyer.. 02/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 35578600 35818470 35458401 35098380 34608371 34258386 33948462 33558572 33448683 33518828 33618872 34638751 35578600 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS STATES/EASTERN U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe wind gusts will be possible today from the Tennessee Valley and west slopes of the Appalachians to western New England, the Mid-Atlantic Region, and portions of the Carolinas. ...Tennessee Valley/Appalachians... A well-organized northeast/southwest-oriented thunderstorm squall line continues to progress generally eastward across northern Alabama, eastern Tennessee as well as southeast Kentucky and southern West Virginia as of late morning, largely paralleling an eastward-moving cold front. Periodic strong or locally severe wind gusts will remain a possibility across a broad portion of the region today, but especially across the Tennessee Valley toward southern Appalachians where somewhat stronger heating and destabilization are expected coincident with the southern periphery of strong winds aloft and weak height falls. Farther north, showers and cloud cover will tend to remain prevalent across much of the pre-frontal warm sector across the Northeast, although some clearing/weak destabilization is possible later this afternoon immediately near the front currently across the Upper Ohio Valley. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 02/28/2024 Read more