Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN INTER MOUNTAIN REGION... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe wind gusts and hail are possible over northern Nevada, eastern Oregon, and western Idaho during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Northern Inter Mountain Region... Upper low is forecast to settle southeast toward the northern CA Coast late in the day1 period. This evolution will ensure short-wave ridging holds across the northern Rockies, effectively suppressing any appreciable large-scale ascent. Even so, some moistening is expected across this region, albeit meager, as meridional flow across northern CA/eastern OR will encourage PW values to exceed 0.50 inch within a warm-advection regime. Latest model guidance suggests some boundary-layer heating will contribute to weak buoyancy within a strongly sheared environment. Isolated-scattered convection is expected to develop across northwestern NV/eastern OR extending into the northern Rockies of western MT by late afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest gusty winds may accompany some of this convection, and marginally severe hail may also be noted with the most robust updrafts. Boundary-layer cooling should result in weakening convection during the mid-evening hours. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 04/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN INTER MOUNTAIN REGION... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe wind gusts and hail are possible over northern Nevada, eastern Oregon, and western Idaho during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Northern Inter Mountain Region... Upper low is forecast to settle southeast toward the northern CA Coast late in the day1 period. This evolution will ensure short-wave ridging holds across the northern Rockies, effectively suppressing any appreciable large-scale ascent. Even so, some moistening is expected across this region, albeit meager, as meridional flow across northern CA/eastern OR will encourage PW values to exceed 0.50 inch within a warm-advection regime. Latest model guidance suggests some boundary-layer heating will contribute to weak buoyancy within a strongly sheared environment. Isolated-scattered convection is expected to develop across northwestern NV/eastern OR extending into the northern Rockies of western MT by late afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest gusty winds may accompany some of this convection, and marginally severe hail may also be noted with the most robust updrafts. Boundary-layer cooling should result in weakening convection during the mid-evening hours. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 04/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN INTER MOUNTAIN REGION... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe wind gusts and hail are possible over northern Nevada, eastern Oregon, and western Idaho during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Northern Inter Mountain Region... Upper low is forecast to settle southeast toward the northern CA Coast late in the day1 period. This evolution will ensure short-wave ridging holds across the northern Rockies, effectively suppressing any appreciable large-scale ascent. Even so, some moistening is expected across this region, albeit meager, as meridional flow across northern CA/eastern OR will encourage PW values to exceed 0.50 inch within a warm-advection regime. Latest model guidance suggests some boundary-layer heating will contribute to weak buoyancy within a strongly sheared environment. Isolated-scattered convection is expected to develop across northwestern NV/eastern OR extending into the northern Rockies of western MT by late afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest gusty winds may accompany some of this convection, and marginally severe hail may also be noted with the most robust updrafts. Boundary-layer cooling should result in weakening convection during the mid-evening hours. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 04/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN INTER MOUNTAIN REGION... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe wind gusts and hail are possible over northern Nevada, eastern Oregon, and western Idaho during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Northern Inter Mountain Region... Upper low is forecast to settle southeast toward the northern CA Coast late in the day1 period. This evolution will ensure short-wave ridging holds across the northern Rockies, effectively suppressing any appreciable large-scale ascent. Even so, some moistening is expected across this region, albeit meager, as meridional flow across northern CA/eastern OR will encourage PW values to exceed 0.50 inch within a warm-advection regime. Latest model guidance suggests some boundary-layer heating will contribute to weak buoyancy within a strongly sheared environment. Isolated-scattered convection is expected to develop across northwestern NV/eastern OR extending into the northern Rockies of western MT by late afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest gusty winds may accompany some of this convection, and marginally severe hail may also be noted with the most robust updrafts. Boundary-layer cooling should result in weakening convection during the mid-evening hours. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 04/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN INTER MOUNTAIN REGION... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe wind gusts and hail are possible over northern Nevada, eastern Oregon, and western Idaho during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Northern Inter Mountain Region... Upper low is forecast to settle southeast toward the northern CA Coast late in the day1 period. This evolution will ensure short-wave ridging holds across the northern Rockies, effectively suppressing any appreciable large-scale ascent. Even so, some moistening is expected across this region, albeit meager, as meridional flow across northern CA/eastern OR will encourage PW values to exceed 0.50 inch within a warm-advection regime. Latest model guidance suggests some boundary-layer heating will contribute to weak buoyancy within a strongly sheared environment. Isolated-scattered convection is expected to develop across northwestern NV/eastern OR extending into the northern Rockies of western MT by late afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest gusty winds may accompany some of this convection, and marginally severe hail may also be noted with the most robust updrafts. Boundary-layer cooling should result in weakening convection during the mid-evening hours. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 04/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN INTER MOUNTAIN REGION... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe wind gusts and hail are possible over northern Nevada, eastern Oregon, and western Idaho during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Northern Inter Mountain Region... Upper low is forecast to settle southeast toward the northern CA Coast late in the day1 period. This evolution will ensure short-wave ridging holds across the northern Rockies, effectively suppressing any appreciable large-scale ascent. Even so, some moistening is expected across this region, albeit meager, as meridional flow across northern CA/eastern OR will encourage PW values to exceed 0.50 inch within a warm-advection regime. Latest model guidance suggests some boundary-layer heating will contribute to weak buoyancy within a strongly sheared environment. Isolated-scattered convection is expected to develop across northwestern NV/eastern OR extending into the northern Rockies of western MT by late afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest gusty winds may accompany some of this convection, and marginally severe hail may also be noted with the most robust updrafts. Boundary-layer cooling should result in weakening convection during the mid-evening hours. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 04/12/2024 Read more

WW 0107 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 107 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..04/12/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 107 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS VAC003-007-047-049-065-075-079-109-111-113-117-135-137-145-147- 177-540-630-120340- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBEMARLE AMELIA CULPEPER CUMBERLAND FLUVANNA GOOCHLAND GREENE LOUISA LUNENBURG MADISON MECKLENBURG NOTTOWAY ORANGE POWHATAN PRINCE EDWARD SPOTSYLVANIA VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE CHARLOTTESVILLE FREDERICKSBURG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0107 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 107 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..04/12/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 107 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS VAC003-007-047-049-065-075-079-109-111-113-117-135-137-145-147- 177-540-630-120340- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBEMARLE AMELIA CULPEPER CUMBERLAND FLUVANNA GOOCHLAND GREENE LOUISA LUNENBURG MADISON MECKLENBURG NOTTOWAY ORANGE POWHATAN PRINCE EDWARD SPOTSYLVANIA VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE CHARLOTTESVILLE FREDERICKSBURG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0107 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 107 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..04/12/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 107 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS VAC003-007-047-049-065-075-079-109-111-113-117-135-137-145-147- 177-540-630-120340- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBEMARLE AMELIA CULPEPER CUMBERLAND FLUVANNA GOOCHLAND GREENE LOUISA LUNENBURG MADISON MECKLENBURG NOTTOWAY ORANGE POWHATAN PRINCE EDWARD SPOTSYLVANIA VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE CHARLOTTESVILLE FREDERICKSBURG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 107 TORNADO VA 120205Z - 120500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 107 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1005 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central Virginia * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 1005 PM until 100 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...A line of storms with a history of wind damage will spread northeastward for the next 2-3 hours before weakening. A couple of tornadoes will also be possible with embedded circulations in the line. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 30 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles east northeast of Charlottesville VA to 60 miles south southwest of Charlottesville VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 106... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 22040. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0106 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 106 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E DAN TO 15 ENE DAN TO 25 SSW SHD. WW 106 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 120300Z. ..LYONS..04/12/24 ATTN...WFO...GSP...RNK...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 106 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS VAC011-029-037-083-120300- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPOMATTOX BUCKINGHAM CHARLOTTE HALIFAX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0106 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 106 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E DAN TO 15 ENE DAN TO 25 SSW SHD. WW 106 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 120300Z. ..LYONS..04/12/24 ATTN...WFO...GSP...RNK...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 106 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS VAC011-029-037-083-120300- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPOMATTOX BUCKINGHAM CHARLOTTE HALIFAX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0106 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 106 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E DAN TO 15 ENE DAN TO 25 SSW SHD. WW 106 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 120300Z. ..LYONS..04/12/24 ATTN...WFO...GSP...RNK...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 106 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS VAC011-029-037-083-120300- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPOMATTOX BUCKINGHAM CHARLOTTE HALIFAX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 106 TORNADO NC VA 112245Z - 120300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 106 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 645 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western North Carolina South central Virginia * Effective this Thursday evening from 645 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered storm clusters and isolated supercells will be possible this evening from western North Carolina into southern Virginia, with the potential for a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts up to 65 mph. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles east of Roanoke VA to 10 miles west of Charlotte NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 105... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 22035. ...Thompson Read more

MD 0426 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 106... FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0426 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Areas affected...Portions of western North Carolina and southern Virginia Concerning...Tornado Watch 106... Valid 120051Z - 120215Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 106 continues. SUMMARY...The risk for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes will continue this evening. Short bowing segments and a few supercells should continue into south-central VA and central NC tonight. Some guidance suggests the severe threat may persist beyond WW106 this evening. DISCUSSION...As of 0040 UTC, ongoing storms over portions of NC/VA have produced several reports of damage. Storm organization has trended towards more liner structures over the last couple of hours owing to numerous storm interactions. However, more clustered cellular elements have persisted to the south. The environment ahead of these storms across parts of south-central VA and west-central NC remains modestly unstable and strongly sheared with ESRH of 250-400 m2/s2. Rotating structures within the line and broader cluster will likely remain capable of damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes into this evening. Recent HRRR guidance also suggests these storms may continue to pose a severe risk across parts of southern VA and central NC later this evening. While it is somewhat unclear how far north/east the risk may continue this evening with weakening buoyancy and nocturnal cooling, the general environment remains favorable. Mesoscale trends will be monitored for the need of a downstream watch should storms maintain intensity. ..Lyons/Thompson.. 04/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...GSP... LAT...LON 35677867 34767954 34847983 35118001 35498028 35838043 36088053 36538059 37068051 37727950 37877904 37857862 37717830 37487815 37127810 36667814 36527822 36007850 35677867 Read more

WW 0106 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 106 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW SOP TO 20 SE GSO TO 20 WNW DAN TO 25 SW LYH TO 15 NE ROA. ..LYONS..04/12/24 ATTN...WFO...GSP...RNK...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 106 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC001-033-037-105-125-135-145-120240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMANCE CASWELL CHATHAM LEE MOORE ORANGE PERSON VAC011-019-029-031-037-083-143-590-680-120240- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPOMATTOX BEDFORD BUCKINGHAM CAMPBELL CHARLOTTE HALIFAX PITTSYLVANIA VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE DANVILLE LYNCHBURG Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are possible across the upper Ohio River Valley and parts of the Appalachians tonight. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude southern-stream short-wave trough is advancing across the southern Appalachians this evening. This feature is ejecting northeast in response to upstream height falls ahead of digging Midwest trough. Leading edge of large-scale ascent appears to be aiding an arcing band of convection across NC into western VA. Additionally, a well-defined MCV is evident over central WV, and the southern influence of this feature may be contributing to upscale growth along the northern fringe of the aforementioned arcing band. LLJ is expected to intensify across the middle Atlantic this evening/overnight ahead of the approaching short wave, which will encourage convection to spread/develop downstream across western VA/MD into western PA. Strong deep-layer shear favors organized updrafts along with rotation. However, convective mode is complex and larger clusters/MCSs may be the dominant storm mode much of the night. Even so, some risk for tornadoes continues, along with the potential for damaging winds. ..Darrow.. 04/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are possible across the upper Ohio River Valley and parts of the Appalachians tonight. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude southern-stream short-wave trough is advancing across the southern Appalachians this evening. This feature is ejecting northeast in response to upstream height falls ahead of digging Midwest trough. Leading edge of large-scale ascent appears to be aiding an arcing band of convection across NC into western VA. Additionally, a well-defined MCV is evident over central WV, and the southern influence of this feature may be contributing to upscale growth along the northern fringe of the aforementioned arcing band. LLJ is expected to intensify across the middle Atlantic this evening/overnight ahead of the approaching short wave, which will encourage convection to spread/develop downstream across western VA/MD into western PA. Strong deep-layer shear favors organized updrafts along with rotation. However, convective mode is complex and larger clusters/MCSs may be the dominant storm mode much of the night. Even so, some risk for tornadoes continues, along with the potential for damaging winds. ..Darrow.. 04/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are possible across the upper Ohio River Valley and parts of the Appalachians tonight. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude southern-stream short-wave trough is advancing across the southern Appalachians this evening. This feature is ejecting northeast in response to upstream height falls ahead of digging Midwest trough. Leading edge of large-scale ascent appears to be aiding an arcing band of convection across NC into western VA. Additionally, a well-defined MCV is evident over central WV, and the southern influence of this feature may be contributing to upscale growth along the northern fringe of the aforementioned arcing band. LLJ is expected to intensify across the middle Atlantic this evening/overnight ahead of the approaching short wave, which will encourage convection to spread/develop downstream across western VA/MD into western PA. Strong deep-layer shear favors organized updrafts along with rotation. However, convective mode is complex and larger clusters/MCSs may be the dominant storm mode much of the night. Even so, some risk for tornadoes continues, along with the potential for damaging winds. ..Darrow.. 04/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are possible across the upper Ohio River Valley and parts of the Appalachians tonight. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude southern-stream short-wave trough is advancing across the southern Appalachians this evening. This feature is ejecting northeast in response to upstream height falls ahead of digging Midwest trough. Leading edge of large-scale ascent appears to be aiding an arcing band of convection across NC into western VA. Additionally, a well-defined MCV is evident over central WV, and the southern influence of this feature may be contributing to upscale growth along the northern fringe of the aforementioned arcing band. LLJ is expected to intensify across the middle Atlantic this evening/overnight ahead of the approaching short wave, which will encourage convection to spread/develop downstream across western VA/MD into western PA. Strong deep-layer shear favors organized updrafts along with rotation. However, convective mode is complex and larger clusters/MCSs may be the dominant storm mode much of the night. Even so, some risk for tornadoes continues, along with the potential for damaging winds. ..Darrow.. 04/12/2024 Read more