Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are possible across the upper Ohio River Valley and parts of the Appalachians tonight. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude southern-stream short-wave trough is advancing across the southern Appalachians this evening. This feature is ejecting northeast in response to upstream height falls ahead of digging Midwest trough. Leading edge of large-scale ascent appears to be aiding an arcing band of convection across NC into western VA. Additionally, a well-defined MCV is evident over central WV, and the southern influence of this feature may be contributing to upscale growth along the northern fringe of the aforementioned arcing band. LLJ is expected to intensify across the middle Atlantic this evening/overnight ahead of the approaching short wave, which will encourage convection to spread/develop downstream across western VA/MD into western PA. Strong deep-layer shear favors organized updrafts along with rotation. However, convective mode is complex and larger clusters/MCSs may be the dominant storm mode much of the night. Even so, some risk for tornadoes continues, along with the potential for damaging winds. ..Darrow.. 04/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are possible across the upper Ohio River Valley and parts of the Appalachians tonight. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude southern-stream short-wave trough is advancing across the southern Appalachians this evening. This feature is ejecting northeast in response to upstream height falls ahead of digging Midwest trough. Leading edge of large-scale ascent appears to be aiding an arcing band of convection across NC into western VA. Additionally, a well-defined MCV is evident over central WV, and the southern influence of this feature may be contributing to upscale growth along the northern fringe of the aforementioned arcing band. LLJ is expected to intensify across the middle Atlantic this evening/overnight ahead of the approaching short wave, which will encourage convection to spread/develop downstream across western VA/MD into western PA. Strong deep-layer shear favors organized updrafts along with rotation. However, convective mode is complex and larger clusters/MCSs may be the dominant storm mode much of the night. Even so, some risk for tornadoes continues, along with the potential for damaging winds. ..Darrow.. 04/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are possible across the upper Ohio River Valley and parts of the Appalachians tonight. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude southern-stream short-wave trough is advancing across the southern Appalachians this evening. This feature is ejecting northeast in response to upstream height falls ahead of digging Midwest trough. Leading edge of large-scale ascent appears to be aiding an arcing band of convection across NC into western VA. Additionally, a well-defined MCV is evident over central WV, and the southern influence of this feature may be contributing to upscale growth along the northern fringe of the aforementioned arcing band. LLJ is expected to intensify across the middle Atlantic this evening/overnight ahead of the approaching short wave, which will encourage convection to spread/develop downstream across western VA/MD into western PA. Strong deep-layer shear favors organized updrafts along with rotation. However, convective mode is complex and larger clusters/MCSs may be the dominant storm mode much of the night. Even so, some risk for tornadoes continues, along with the potential for damaging winds. ..Darrow.. 04/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are possible across the upper Ohio River Valley and parts of the Appalachians tonight. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude southern-stream short-wave trough is advancing across the southern Appalachians this evening. This feature is ejecting northeast in response to upstream height falls ahead of digging Midwest trough. Leading edge of large-scale ascent appears to be aiding an arcing band of convection across NC into western VA. Additionally, a well-defined MCV is evident over central WV, and the southern influence of this feature may be contributing to upscale growth along the northern fringe of the aforementioned arcing band. LLJ is expected to intensify across the middle Atlantic this evening/overnight ahead of the approaching short wave, which will encourage convection to spread/develop downstream across western VA/MD into western PA. Strong deep-layer shear favors organized updrafts along with rotation. However, convective mode is complex and larger clusters/MCSs may be the dominant storm mode much of the night. Even so, some risk for tornadoes continues, along with the potential for damaging winds. ..Darrow.. 04/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are possible across the upper Ohio River Valley and parts of the Appalachians tonight. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude southern-stream short-wave trough is advancing across the southern Appalachians this evening. This feature is ejecting northeast in response to upstream height falls ahead of digging Midwest trough. Leading edge of large-scale ascent appears to be aiding an arcing band of convection across NC into western VA. Additionally, a well-defined MCV is evident over central WV, and the southern influence of this feature may be contributing to upscale growth along the northern fringe of the aforementioned arcing band. LLJ is expected to intensify across the middle Atlantic this evening/overnight ahead of the approaching short wave, which will encourage convection to spread/develop downstream across western VA/MD into western PA. Strong deep-layer shear favors organized updrafts along with rotation. However, convective mode is complex and larger clusters/MCSs may be the dominant storm mode much of the night. Even so, some risk for tornadoes continues, along with the potential for damaging winds. ..Darrow.. 04/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are possible across the upper Ohio River Valley and parts of the Appalachians tonight. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude southern-stream short-wave trough is advancing across the southern Appalachians this evening. This feature is ejecting northeast in response to upstream height falls ahead of digging Midwest trough. Leading edge of large-scale ascent appears to be aiding an arcing band of convection across NC into western VA. Additionally, a well-defined MCV is evident over central WV, and the southern influence of this feature may be contributing to upscale growth along the northern fringe of the aforementioned arcing band. LLJ is expected to intensify across the middle Atlantic this evening/overnight ahead of the approaching short wave, which will encourage convection to spread/develop downstream across western VA/MD into western PA. Strong deep-layer shear favors organized updrafts along with rotation. However, convective mode is complex and larger clusters/MCSs may be the dominant storm mode much of the night. Even so, some risk for tornadoes continues, along with the potential for damaging winds. ..Darrow.. 04/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are possible across the upper Ohio River Valley and parts of the Appalachians tonight. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude southern-stream short-wave trough is advancing across the southern Appalachians this evening. This feature is ejecting northeast in response to upstream height falls ahead of digging Midwest trough. Leading edge of large-scale ascent appears to be aiding an arcing band of convection across NC into western VA. Additionally, a well-defined MCV is evident over central WV, and the southern influence of this feature may be contributing to upscale growth along the northern fringe of the aforementioned arcing band. LLJ is expected to intensify across the middle Atlantic this evening/overnight ahead of the approaching short wave, which will encourage convection to spread/develop downstream across western VA/MD into western PA. Strong deep-layer shear favors organized updrafts along with rotation. However, convective mode is complex and larger clusters/MCSs may be the dominant storm mode much of the night. Even so, some risk for tornadoes continues, along with the potential for damaging winds. ..Darrow.. 04/12/2024 Read more

MD 0425 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 105... FOR WEST VIRGINIA...FAR WESTERN MARYLAND...FAR SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0425 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0543 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Areas affected...West Virginia...Far Western Maryland...Far Southwest Pennsylvania Concerning...Tornado Watch 105... Valid 112243Z - 120045Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 105 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated tornado and wind-damage threat is expected to continue across parts of the central Appalachians for several more hours this evening. At this time, it appears that new watch issuance to the east of the ongoing watch will be unlikely. DISCUSSION...The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, with the exit region of a mid-level jet moving across the central Appalachians. Large-scale ascent appears to be maximized within this feature, which will continue to support scattered thunderstorm development this evening. The exit region of the jet was also creating moderate deep-layer shear over the top of a weakly unstable airmass, with MLCAPE estimated between 250 and 500 J/kg. The instability and shear should be just enough to continue an isolated tornado and wind-damage threat over the next few hours with the watch. An isolated severe threat could also develop just to the east of the current watch, but the magnitude of the threat is expected to be too marginal for new weather watch issuance. ..Broyles.. 04/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 37518051 37348117 37458191 37848214 38518186 39378104 39978011 39807892 39257887 38637931 37518051 Read more

MD 0424 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH/SOUTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0424 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0524 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Areas affected...portions of western North/South Carolina into southern Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 112224Z - 120030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The potential for damaging wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes may increase through this evening. While there is some uncertainty in storm coverage/intensity a watch is possible. DISCUSSION...As of 2215 UTC, regional satellite and radar showed small storms developing across portions of western NC into northern SC. While small, lightning and reflectively structures have intensified over the last 30 minutes, indicating deepening updrafts. Ongoing within a relatively moist environment (dewpoints in the mid 60s F) modest low and mid-level lapse rates are contributing to 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. 60-70 kt of deep-layer shear from area VADs and modest forcing for ascent are favorable for storm organization with supercell structures. While storms have steadily increased in intensity, modest buoyancy/lapse rates have so far favored relatively low topped convection. However, further maturation is possible, and low-level shear is forecast to increase through this evening as storms move north/northeast. Effective SRH of 200-350 m2/s2 from SPC mesoanalysis may support a risk for a couple of tornadoes with the more robust supercells able to become established. Damaging gusts will also be possible given strong background flow. Given the potential for some increase in the tornado/wind risk this evening, a WW is possible. ..Lyons/Thompson.. 04/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX... LAT...LON 36577967 36227970 35458015 34728087 34628114 34688152 34908191 35268226 35608230 36028219 36508176 37258065 36977991 36577967 Read more

WW 0105 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 105 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..04/11/24 ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 105 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC019-043-063-071-089-115-127-153-159-175-195-120040- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOYD CARTER ELLIOTT FLOYD GREENUP JOHNSON LAWRENCE MAGOFFIN MARTIN MORGAN PIKE OHC009-013-053-059-067-079-081-087-105-111-115-121-163-167- 120040- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATHENS BELMONT GALLIA GUERNSEY HARRISON JACKSON JEFFERSON LAWRENCE MEIGS MONROE MORGAN NOBLE VINTON WASHINGTON PAC051-059-125-120040- Read more

WW 0105 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 105 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..04/11/24 ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 105 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC019-043-063-071-089-115-127-153-159-175-195-120040- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOYD CARTER ELLIOTT FLOYD GREENUP JOHNSON LAWRENCE MAGOFFIN MARTIN MORGAN PIKE OHC009-013-053-059-067-079-081-087-105-111-115-121-163-167- 120040- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATHENS BELMONT GALLIA GUERNSEY HARRISON JACKSON JEFFERSON LAWRENCE MEIGS MONROE MORGAN NOBLE VINTON WASHINGTON PAC051-059-125-120040- Read more

WW 0105 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 105 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..04/11/24 ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 105 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC019-043-063-071-089-115-127-153-159-175-195-120040- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOYD CARTER ELLIOTT FLOYD GREENUP JOHNSON LAWRENCE MAGOFFIN MARTIN MORGAN PIKE OHC009-013-053-059-067-079-081-087-105-111-115-121-163-167- 120040- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATHENS BELMONT GALLIA GUERNSEY HARRISON JACKSON JEFFERSON LAWRENCE MEIGS MONROE MORGAN NOBLE VINTON WASHINGTON PAC051-059-125-120040- Read more

WW 0105 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 105 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..04/11/24 ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 105 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC019-043-063-071-089-115-127-153-159-175-195-120040- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOYD CARTER ELLIOTT FLOYD GREENUP JOHNSON LAWRENCE MAGOFFIN MARTIN MORGAN PIKE OHC009-013-053-059-067-079-081-087-105-111-115-121-163-167- 120040- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATHENS BELMONT GALLIA GUERNSEY HARRISON JACKSON JEFFERSON LAWRENCE MEIGS MONROE MORGAN NOBLE VINTON WASHINGTON PAC051-059-125-120040- Read more

WW 0105 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 105 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..04/11/24 ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 105 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC019-043-063-071-089-115-127-153-159-175-195-120040- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOYD CARTER ELLIOTT FLOYD GREENUP JOHNSON LAWRENCE MAGOFFIN MARTIN MORGAN PIKE OHC009-013-053-059-067-079-081-087-105-111-115-121-163-167- 120040- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATHENS BELMONT GALLIA GUERNSEY HARRISON JACKSON JEFFERSON LAWRENCE MEIGS MONROE MORGAN NOBLE VINTON WASHINGTON PAC051-059-125-120040- Read more

WW 0106 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 106 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W CLT TO 15 NE HKY TO 50 N HKY. ..LYONS..04/11/24 ATTN...WFO...GSP...RNK...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 106 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC003-025-033-035-057-059-067-071-081-097-109-119-157-159-169- 171-179-193-197-120040- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER CABARRUS CASWELL CATAWBA DAVIDSON DAVIE FORSYTH GASTON GUILFORD IREDELL LINCOLN MECKLENBURG ROCKINGHAM ROWAN STOKES SURRY UNION WILKES YADKIN VAC019-031-035-037-063-067-083-089-121-141-143-161-590-640-680- 690-750-770-775-120040- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEDFORD CAMPBELL CARROLL CHARLOTTE FLOYD FRANKLIN HALIFAX HENRY MONTGOMERY PATRICK PITTSYLVANIA ROANOKE Read more

WW 105 TORNADO KY OH PA VA WV 112005Z - 120100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 105 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 405 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Kentucky Southeast Ohio Southwest Pennsylvania Far Western Virginia West Virginia * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 405 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...At least widely scattered severe storms are expected to develop and race generally northeastward through late afternoon and evening, potentially including some supercells capable of a tornado risk as well as damaging winds and possibly some hail. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles east southeast of Jackson KY to 15 miles east northeast of Wheeling WV. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 23035. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0106 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 106 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W CLT TO 15 NE HKY TO 50 N HKY. ..LYONS..04/11/24 ATTN...WFO...GSP...RNK...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 106 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC003-025-033-035-057-059-067-071-081-097-109-119-157-159-169- 171-179-193-197-120040- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER CABARRUS CASWELL CATAWBA DAVIDSON DAVIE FORSYTH GASTON GUILFORD IREDELL LINCOLN MECKLENBURG ROCKINGHAM ROWAN STOKES SURRY UNION WILKES YADKIN VAC019-031-035-037-063-067-083-089-121-141-143-161-590-640-680- 690-750-770-775-120040- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEDFORD CAMPBELL CARROLL CHARLOTTE FLOYD FRANKLIN HALIFAX HENRY MONTGOMERY PATRICK PITTSYLVANIA ROANOKE Read more

WW 106 TORNADO NC VA 112245Z - 120300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 106 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 645 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western North Carolina South central Virginia * Effective this Thursday evening from 645 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered storm clusters and isolated supercells will be possible this evening from western North Carolina into southern Virginia, with the potential for a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts up to 65 mph. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles east of Roanoke VA to 10 miles west of Charlotte NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 105... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 22035. ...Thompson Read more

MD 0425 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 105... FOR WEST VIRGINIA...FAR WESTERN MARYLAND...FAR SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0425 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0543 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Areas affected...West Virginia...Far Western Maryland...Far Southwest Pennsylvania Concerning...Tornado Watch 105... Valid 112243Z - 120045Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 105 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated tornado and wind-damage threat is expected to continue across parts of the central Appalachians for several more hours this evening. At this time, it appears that new watch issuance to the east of the ongoing watch will be unlikely. DISCUSSION...The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, with the exit region of a mid-level jet moving across the central Appalachians. Large-scale ascent appears to be maximized within this feature, which will continue to support scattered thunderstorm development this evening. The exit region of the jet was also creating moderate deep-layer shear over the top of a weakly unstable airmass, with MLCAPE estimated between 250 and 500 J/kg. The instability and shear should be just enough to continue an isolated tornado and wind-damage threat over the next few hours with the watch. An isolated severe threat could also develop just to the east of the current watch, but the magnitude of the threat is expected to be too marginal for new weather watch issuance. ..Broyles.. 04/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 37518051 37348117 37458191 37848214 38518186 39378104 39978011 39807892 39257887 38637931 37518051 Read more

MD 0424 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH/SOUTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0424 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0524 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Areas affected...portions of western North/South Carolina into southern Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 112224Z - 120030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The potential for damaging wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes may increase through this evening. While there is some uncertainty in storm coverage/intensity a watch is possible. DISCUSSION...As of 2215 UTC, regional satellite and radar showed small storms developing across portions of western NC into northern SC. While small, lightning and reflectively structures have intensified over the last 30 minutes, indicating deepening updrafts. Ongoing within a relatively moist environment (dewpoints in the mid 60s F) modest low and mid-level lapse rates are contributing to 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. 60-70 kt of deep-layer shear from area VADs and modest forcing for ascent are favorable for storm organization with supercell structures. While storms have steadily increased in intensity, modest buoyancy/lapse rates have so far favored relatively low topped convection. However, further maturation is possible, and low-level shear is forecast to increase through this evening as storms move north/northeast. Effective SRH of 200-350 m2/s2 from SPC mesoanalysis may support a risk for a couple of tornadoes with the more robust supercells able to become established. Damaging gusts will also be possible given strong background flow. Given the potential for some increase in the tornado/wind risk this evening, a WW is possible. ..Lyons/Thompson.. 04/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX... LAT...LON 36577967 36227970 35458015 34728087 34628114 34688152 34908191 35268226 35608230 36028219 36508176 37258065 36977991 36577967 Read more