Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions are expected again on Sunday across a broad swath of the Four Corners region with more concentrated areas of elevated conditions across the southern High Plains. The upper low currently off the central CA coast is forecast to move onshore over the next 48 hours, reaching the lower CO River Valley region by late Sunday. This will result in surface pressure falls across much of the intermountain West with an accompanying uptick in low-level winds. Widespread fire weather conditions are anticipated across much of the Four Corners region, but fuel analyses suggest that most fuels are currently not receptive. A weaker low-level mass response is anticipated further east across the southern High Plains, but corridors of dry/windy conditions are anticipated over areas with receptive fuels. ...Southeast NM to the southern Permian Basin... Both deterministic and ensemble guidance show the potential for pockets of elevated fire weather conditions across NM into adjacent areas of western TX and southern CO. However, the most consistent signal among all solutions appears to be across southeast NM into the southern Permian Basin where 15-20 mph winds and RH in the single digits to low teens are expected. This signal is likely attributable to topographical influences with enhanced downslope warming/drying in the lee of the Guadelupe Mountains within a modest west/southwesterly flow regime. Dry grasses across this region should support the fire weather concern, and fuel guidance will be monitored across the Four Corners region given the relatively higher confidence for elevated (to locally critical) fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 04/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions are expected again on Sunday across a broad swath of the Four Corners region with more concentrated areas of elevated conditions across the southern High Plains. The upper low currently off the central CA coast is forecast to move onshore over the next 48 hours, reaching the lower CO River Valley region by late Sunday. This will result in surface pressure falls across much of the intermountain West with an accompanying uptick in low-level winds. Widespread fire weather conditions are anticipated across much of the Four Corners region, but fuel analyses suggest that most fuels are currently not receptive. A weaker low-level mass response is anticipated further east across the southern High Plains, but corridors of dry/windy conditions are anticipated over areas with receptive fuels. ...Southeast NM to the southern Permian Basin... Both deterministic and ensemble guidance show the potential for pockets of elevated fire weather conditions across NM into adjacent areas of western TX and southern CO. However, the most consistent signal among all solutions appears to be across southeast NM into the southern Permian Basin where 15-20 mph winds and RH in the single digits to low teens are expected. This signal is likely attributable to topographical influences with enhanced downslope warming/drying in the lee of the Guadelupe Mountains within a modest west/southwesterly flow regime. Dry grasses across this region should support the fire weather concern, and fuel guidance will be monitored across the Four Corners region given the relatively higher confidence for elevated (to locally critical) fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 04/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions are expected again on Sunday across a broad swath of the Four Corners region with more concentrated areas of elevated conditions across the southern High Plains. The upper low currently off the central CA coast is forecast to move onshore over the next 48 hours, reaching the lower CO River Valley region by late Sunday. This will result in surface pressure falls across much of the intermountain West with an accompanying uptick in low-level winds. Widespread fire weather conditions are anticipated across much of the Four Corners region, but fuel analyses suggest that most fuels are currently not receptive. A weaker low-level mass response is anticipated further east across the southern High Plains, but corridors of dry/windy conditions are anticipated over areas with receptive fuels. ...Southeast NM to the southern Permian Basin... Both deterministic and ensemble guidance show the potential for pockets of elevated fire weather conditions across NM into adjacent areas of western TX and southern CO. However, the most consistent signal among all solutions appears to be across southeast NM into the southern Permian Basin where 15-20 mph winds and RH in the single digits to low teens are expected. This signal is likely attributable to topographical influences with enhanced downslope warming/drying in the lee of the Guadelupe Mountains within a modest west/southwesterly flow regime. Dry grasses across this region should support the fire weather concern, and fuel guidance will be monitored across the Four Corners region given the relatively higher confidence for elevated (to locally critical) fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 04/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions are expected again on Sunday across a broad swath of the Four Corners region with more concentrated areas of elevated conditions across the southern High Plains. The upper low currently off the central CA coast is forecast to move onshore over the next 48 hours, reaching the lower CO River Valley region by late Sunday. This will result in surface pressure falls across much of the intermountain West with an accompanying uptick in low-level winds. Widespread fire weather conditions are anticipated across much of the Four Corners region, but fuel analyses suggest that most fuels are currently not receptive. A weaker low-level mass response is anticipated further east across the southern High Plains, but corridors of dry/windy conditions are anticipated over areas with receptive fuels. ...Southeast NM to the southern Permian Basin... Both deterministic and ensemble guidance show the potential for pockets of elevated fire weather conditions across NM into adjacent areas of western TX and southern CO. However, the most consistent signal among all solutions appears to be across southeast NM into the southern Permian Basin where 15-20 mph winds and RH in the single digits to low teens are expected. This signal is likely attributable to topographical influences with enhanced downslope warming/drying in the lee of the Guadelupe Mountains within a modest west/southwesterly flow regime. Dry grasses across this region should support the fire weather concern, and fuel guidance will be monitored across the Four Corners region given the relatively higher confidence for elevated (to locally critical) fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 04/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions are expected again on Sunday across a broad swath of the Four Corners region with more concentrated areas of elevated conditions across the southern High Plains. The upper low currently off the central CA coast is forecast to move onshore over the next 48 hours, reaching the lower CO River Valley region by late Sunday. This will result in surface pressure falls across much of the intermountain West with an accompanying uptick in low-level winds. Widespread fire weather conditions are anticipated across much of the Four Corners region, but fuel analyses suggest that most fuels are currently not receptive. A weaker low-level mass response is anticipated further east across the southern High Plains, but corridors of dry/windy conditions are anticipated over areas with receptive fuels. ...Southeast NM to the southern Permian Basin... Both deterministic and ensemble guidance show the potential for pockets of elevated fire weather conditions across NM into adjacent areas of western TX and southern CO. However, the most consistent signal among all solutions appears to be across southeast NM into the southern Permian Basin where 15-20 mph winds and RH in the single digits to low teens are expected. This signal is likely attributable to topographical influences with enhanced downslope warming/drying in the lee of the Guadelupe Mountains within a modest west/southwesterly flow regime. Dry grasses across this region should support the fire weather concern, and fuel guidance will be monitored across the Four Corners region given the relatively higher confidence for elevated (to locally critical) fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 04/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated across a broad swath of the southern Great Basin to the southern/central Plains this afternoon. However, the fire weather threat will likely be focused primarily across portions of the southern High Plains where the overlap of receptive fuels and dry/windy conditions will be greatest. ...Southern High Plains to northern KS... 05 UTC surface observations show somewhat poor overnight RH recover with RH values remaining in the 15-30% range across eastern NM into far western TX. Additionally, regional 00 UTC soundings sampled very dry boundary-layer conditions across NM and western TX. This dry air mass will spread to the east/northeast through the afternoon as southwesterly winds increase in tandem with a deepening lee trough. Widespread RH values in the low teens to low 20s will likely coincide with 15-20 mph winds (gusting to 25-30 mph). Elevated fire weather conditions will likely be widespread across the southern High Plains into western TX, OK, and KS. However, rainfall over the past 72 hours across parts of TX and OK has limited fuel receptiveness based on recent rainfall analyses and fuel reports. Early spring green up is also more prevalent with eastern extent, which will further limit fire potential. Therefore, the Elevated risk area delineates where the best overlap of dry fine fuels and dry/windy conditions should occur. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... Southerly winds are expected to strengthen through the day in response to the deepening lee trough. Very limited moisture return until late in the day, coupled with strong diurnal warming, should result in areas of 25-35% RH with 15-20 mph winds. Localized elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across parts of IA, MN, and southwestern WI, but are expected to remain sufficiently limited spatially and temporally to negate the need for additional highlights. ..Moore.. 04/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated across a broad swath of the southern Great Basin to the southern/central Plains this afternoon. However, the fire weather threat will likely be focused primarily across portions of the southern High Plains where the overlap of receptive fuels and dry/windy conditions will be greatest. ...Southern High Plains to northern KS... 05 UTC surface observations show somewhat poor overnight RH recover with RH values remaining in the 15-30% range across eastern NM into far western TX. Additionally, regional 00 UTC soundings sampled very dry boundary-layer conditions across NM and western TX. This dry air mass will spread to the east/northeast through the afternoon as southwesterly winds increase in tandem with a deepening lee trough. Widespread RH values in the low teens to low 20s will likely coincide with 15-20 mph winds (gusting to 25-30 mph). Elevated fire weather conditions will likely be widespread across the southern High Plains into western TX, OK, and KS. However, rainfall over the past 72 hours across parts of TX and OK has limited fuel receptiveness based on recent rainfall analyses and fuel reports. Early spring green up is also more prevalent with eastern extent, which will further limit fire potential. Therefore, the Elevated risk area delineates where the best overlap of dry fine fuels and dry/windy conditions should occur. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... Southerly winds are expected to strengthen through the day in response to the deepening lee trough. Very limited moisture return until late in the day, coupled with strong diurnal warming, should result in areas of 25-35% RH with 15-20 mph winds. Localized elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across parts of IA, MN, and southwestern WI, but are expected to remain sufficiently limited spatially and temporally to negate the need for additional highlights. ..Moore.. 04/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated across a broad swath of the southern Great Basin to the southern/central Plains this afternoon. However, the fire weather threat will likely be focused primarily across portions of the southern High Plains where the overlap of receptive fuels and dry/windy conditions will be greatest. ...Southern High Plains to northern KS... 05 UTC surface observations show somewhat poor overnight RH recover with RH values remaining in the 15-30% range across eastern NM into far western TX. Additionally, regional 00 UTC soundings sampled very dry boundary-layer conditions across NM and western TX. This dry air mass will spread to the east/northeast through the afternoon as southwesterly winds increase in tandem with a deepening lee trough. Widespread RH values in the low teens to low 20s will likely coincide with 15-20 mph winds (gusting to 25-30 mph). Elevated fire weather conditions will likely be widespread across the southern High Plains into western TX, OK, and KS. However, rainfall over the past 72 hours across parts of TX and OK has limited fuel receptiveness based on recent rainfall analyses and fuel reports. Early spring green up is also more prevalent with eastern extent, which will further limit fire potential. Therefore, the Elevated risk area delineates where the best overlap of dry fine fuels and dry/windy conditions should occur. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... Southerly winds are expected to strengthen through the day in response to the deepening lee trough. Very limited moisture return until late in the day, coupled with strong diurnal warming, should result in areas of 25-35% RH with 15-20 mph winds. Localized elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across parts of IA, MN, and southwestern WI, but are expected to remain sufficiently limited spatially and temporally to negate the need for additional highlights. ..Moore.. 04/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated across a broad swath of the southern Great Basin to the southern/central Plains this afternoon. However, the fire weather threat will likely be focused primarily across portions of the southern High Plains where the overlap of receptive fuels and dry/windy conditions will be greatest. ...Southern High Plains to northern KS... 05 UTC surface observations show somewhat poor overnight RH recover with RH values remaining in the 15-30% range across eastern NM into far western TX. Additionally, regional 00 UTC soundings sampled very dry boundary-layer conditions across NM and western TX. This dry air mass will spread to the east/northeast through the afternoon as southwesterly winds increase in tandem with a deepening lee trough. Widespread RH values in the low teens to low 20s will likely coincide with 15-20 mph winds (gusting to 25-30 mph). Elevated fire weather conditions will likely be widespread across the southern High Plains into western TX, OK, and KS. However, rainfall over the past 72 hours across parts of TX and OK has limited fuel receptiveness based on recent rainfall analyses and fuel reports. Early spring green up is also more prevalent with eastern extent, which will further limit fire potential. Therefore, the Elevated risk area delineates where the best overlap of dry fine fuels and dry/windy conditions should occur. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... Southerly winds are expected to strengthen through the day in response to the deepening lee trough. Very limited moisture return until late in the day, coupled with strong diurnal warming, should result in areas of 25-35% RH with 15-20 mph winds. Localized elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across parts of IA, MN, and southwestern WI, but are expected to remain sufficiently limited spatially and temporally to negate the need for additional highlights. ..Moore.. 04/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated across a broad swath of the southern Great Basin to the southern/central Plains this afternoon. However, the fire weather threat will likely be focused primarily across portions of the southern High Plains where the overlap of receptive fuels and dry/windy conditions will be greatest. ...Southern High Plains to northern KS... 05 UTC surface observations show somewhat poor overnight RH recover with RH values remaining in the 15-30% range across eastern NM into far western TX. Additionally, regional 00 UTC soundings sampled very dry boundary-layer conditions across NM and western TX. This dry air mass will spread to the east/northeast through the afternoon as southwesterly winds increase in tandem with a deepening lee trough. Widespread RH values in the low teens to low 20s will likely coincide with 15-20 mph winds (gusting to 25-30 mph). Elevated fire weather conditions will likely be widespread across the southern High Plains into western TX, OK, and KS. However, rainfall over the past 72 hours across parts of TX and OK has limited fuel receptiveness based on recent rainfall analyses and fuel reports. Early spring green up is also more prevalent with eastern extent, which will further limit fire potential. Therefore, the Elevated risk area delineates where the best overlap of dry fine fuels and dry/windy conditions should occur. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... Southerly winds are expected to strengthen through the day in response to the deepening lee trough. Very limited moisture return until late in the day, coupled with strong diurnal warming, should result in areas of 25-35% RH with 15-20 mph winds. Localized elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across parts of IA, MN, and southwestern WI, but are expected to remain sufficiently limited spatially and temporally to negate the need for additional highlights. ..Moore.. 04/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF PA TO EAST OH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from late afternoon into the evening on Sunday, across eastern Indiana into the Northeast States. Damaging winds should be the primary hazard, but a tornado or two and large hail are also possible. ...Northeast States to eastern IN... A mid-level jetlet attendant to a low-amplitude shortwave impulse should progress across the northern Great Lakes and Ontario into New England by Sunday evening. Weak cyclogenesis should occur with the surface low tracking east across parts of NY. An attendant cold front should arc westward and progress southeastward. A pronounced elevated mixed layer across the Midwest and southern Great Lakes will shift southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast States. This elevated mixed layer will likely cap surface-based convection until near/after peak heating along the west/east-oriented cold front. 00Z RRFS/NAM soundings appear relatively reasonable with this evolution as modified low-level moisture return emanating from the southern Great Plains struggles to reduce MLCIN until cooling aloft advects in from the west-northwest. Other guidance may be too moist within the boundary layer given upstream observations and 36 hours of air mass modification remaining. Still, a corridor of MLCAPE reaching 1000-1500 J/kg will probably develop in IN/OH given the initially steep mid-level lapse rates. This buoyancy plume will subside with eastern extent towards the DE Valley. Hodographs across the region should be dominated by low-level curvature enlargement, especially with eastern extent. However, weak speed and directional shear components are expected above that within the buoyancy layer. Maturing cells will attempt to form supercell structures, but given the nearly parallel orientation of the front with respect to the deep-layer westerly flow regime, convective mode should favor west/east-oriented clusters. These should largely progress south-southeast amid the undercutting nature of the composite front and emerging convective outflows. Due to the initially steep mid-level lapse rates and enlarged low-level hodographs, there is concern for a brief supercell tornado and isolated hail threat. Though with the limiting factors, it appears damaging winds should be the primary hazard during the evening before convection wanes with southern extent overnight. ..Grams.. 04/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF PA TO EAST OH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from late afternoon into the evening on Sunday, across eastern Indiana into the Northeast States. Damaging winds should be the primary hazard, but a tornado or two and large hail are also possible. ...Northeast States to eastern IN... A mid-level jetlet attendant to a low-amplitude shortwave impulse should progress across the northern Great Lakes and Ontario into New England by Sunday evening. Weak cyclogenesis should occur with the surface low tracking east across parts of NY. An attendant cold front should arc westward and progress southeastward. A pronounced elevated mixed layer across the Midwest and southern Great Lakes will shift southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast States. This elevated mixed layer will likely cap surface-based convection until near/after peak heating along the west/east-oriented cold front. 00Z RRFS/NAM soundings appear relatively reasonable with this evolution as modified low-level moisture return emanating from the southern Great Plains struggles to reduce MLCIN until cooling aloft advects in from the west-northwest. Other guidance may be too moist within the boundary layer given upstream observations and 36 hours of air mass modification remaining. Still, a corridor of MLCAPE reaching 1000-1500 J/kg will probably develop in IN/OH given the initially steep mid-level lapse rates. This buoyancy plume will subside with eastern extent towards the DE Valley. Hodographs across the region should be dominated by low-level curvature enlargement, especially with eastern extent. However, weak speed and directional shear components are expected above that within the buoyancy layer. Maturing cells will attempt to form supercell structures, but given the nearly parallel orientation of the front with respect to the deep-layer westerly flow regime, convective mode should favor west/east-oriented clusters. These should largely progress south-southeast amid the undercutting nature of the composite front and emerging convective outflows. Due to the initially steep mid-level lapse rates and enlarged low-level hodographs, there is concern for a brief supercell tornado and isolated hail threat. Though with the limiting factors, it appears damaging winds should be the primary hazard during the evening before convection wanes with southern extent overnight. ..Grams.. 04/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF PA TO EAST OH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from late afternoon into the evening on Sunday, across eastern Indiana into the Northeast States. Damaging winds should be the primary hazard, but a tornado or two and large hail are also possible. ...Northeast States to eastern IN... A mid-level jetlet attendant to a low-amplitude shortwave impulse should progress across the northern Great Lakes and Ontario into New England by Sunday evening. Weak cyclogenesis should occur with the surface low tracking east across parts of NY. An attendant cold front should arc westward and progress southeastward. A pronounced elevated mixed layer across the Midwest and southern Great Lakes will shift southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast States. This elevated mixed layer will likely cap surface-based convection until near/after peak heating along the west/east-oriented cold front. 00Z RRFS/NAM soundings appear relatively reasonable with this evolution as modified low-level moisture return emanating from the southern Great Plains struggles to reduce MLCIN until cooling aloft advects in from the west-northwest. Other guidance may be too moist within the boundary layer given upstream observations and 36 hours of air mass modification remaining. Still, a corridor of MLCAPE reaching 1000-1500 J/kg will probably develop in IN/OH given the initially steep mid-level lapse rates. This buoyancy plume will subside with eastern extent towards the DE Valley. Hodographs across the region should be dominated by low-level curvature enlargement, especially with eastern extent. However, weak speed and directional shear components are expected above that within the buoyancy layer. Maturing cells will attempt to form supercell structures, but given the nearly parallel orientation of the front with respect to the deep-layer westerly flow regime, convective mode should favor west/east-oriented clusters. These should largely progress south-southeast amid the undercutting nature of the composite front and emerging convective outflows. Due to the initially steep mid-level lapse rates and enlarged low-level hodographs, there is concern for a brief supercell tornado and isolated hail threat. Though with the limiting factors, it appears damaging winds should be the primary hazard during the evening before convection wanes with southern extent overnight. ..Grams.. 04/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF PA TO EAST OH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from late afternoon into the evening on Sunday, across eastern Indiana into the Northeast States. Damaging winds should be the primary hazard, but a tornado or two and large hail are also possible. ...Northeast States to eastern IN... A mid-level jetlet attendant to a low-amplitude shortwave impulse should progress across the northern Great Lakes and Ontario into New England by Sunday evening. Weak cyclogenesis should occur with the surface low tracking east across parts of NY. An attendant cold front should arc westward and progress southeastward. A pronounced elevated mixed layer across the Midwest and southern Great Lakes will shift southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast States. This elevated mixed layer will likely cap surface-based convection until near/after peak heating along the west/east-oriented cold front. 00Z RRFS/NAM soundings appear relatively reasonable with this evolution as modified low-level moisture return emanating from the southern Great Plains struggles to reduce MLCIN until cooling aloft advects in from the west-northwest. Other guidance may be too moist within the boundary layer given upstream observations and 36 hours of air mass modification remaining. Still, a corridor of MLCAPE reaching 1000-1500 J/kg will probably develop in IN/OH given the initially steep mid-level lapse rates. This buoyancy plume will subside with eastern extent towards the DE Valley. Hodographs across the region should be dominated by low-level curvature enlargement, especially with eastern extent. However, weak speed and directional shear components are expected above that within the buoyancy layer. Maturing cells will attempt to form supercell structures, but given the nearly parallel orientation of the front with respect to the deep-layer westerly flow regime, convective mode should favor west/east-oriented clusters. These should largely progress south-southeast amid the undercutting nature of the composite front and emerging convective outflows. Due to the initially steep mid-level lapse rates and enlarged low-level hodographs, there is concern for a brief supercell tornado and isolated hail threat. Though with the limiting factors, it appears damaging winds should be the primary hazard during the evening before convection wanes with southern extent overnight. ..Grams.. 04/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF PA TO EAST OH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from late afternoon into the evening on Sunday, across eastern Indiana into the Northeast States. Damaging winds should be the primary hazard, but a tornado or two and large hail are also possible. ...Northeast States to eastern IN... A mid-level jetlet attendant to a low-amplitude shortwave impulse should progress across the northern Great Lakes and Ontario into New England by Sunday evening. Weak cyclogenesis should occur with the surface low tracking east across parts of NY. An attendant cold front should arc westward and progress southeastward. A pronounced elevated mixed layer across the Midwest and southern Great Lakes will shift southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast States. This elevated mixed layer will likely cap surface-based convection until near/after peak heating along the west/east-oriented cold front. 00Z RRFS/NAM soundings appear relatively reasonable with this evolution as modified low-level moisture return emanating from the southern Great Plains struggles to reduce MLCIN until cooling aloft advects in from the west-northwest. Other guidance may be too moist within the boundary layer given upstream observations and 36 hours of air mass modification remaining. Still, a corridor of MLCAPE reaching 1000-1500 J/kg will probably develop in IN/OH given the initially steep mid-level lapse rates. This buoyancy plume will subside with eastern extent towards the DE Valley. Hodographs across the region should be dominated by low-level curvature enlargement, especially with eastern extent. However, weak speed and directional shear components are expected above that within the buoyancy layer. Maturing cells will attempt to form supercell structures, but given the nearly parallel orientation of the front with respect to the deep-layer westerly flow regime, convective mode should favor west/east-oriented clusters. These should largely progress south-southeast amid the undercutting nature of the composite front and emerging convective outflows. Due to the initially steep mid-level lapse rates and enlarged low-level hodographs, there is concern for a brief supercell tornado and isolated hail threat. Though with the limiting factors, it appears damaging winds should be the primary hazard during the evening before convection wanes with southern extent overnight. ..Grams.. 04/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm associated with strong wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon and early this evening across parts of central Oregon. ...Central Oregon... An upper-level low will remain just offshore from the northern California coast today. To the east of the system, a diffluent upper-level pattern will be present from the Intermountain West into the Pacific Northwest. As surface heating takes place across the Pacific Northwest today, a pocket of weak instability will develop across Oregon, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. To the northeast of the upper-level low, large-scale ascent will aid scattered thunderstorm development. The instability, along with moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates, will likely support a marginal severe threat. The stronger rotating cells could be associated with hail and isolated damaging gusts. ..Broyles.. 04/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm associated with strong wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon and early this evening across parts of central Oregon. ...Central Oregon... An upper-level low will remain just offshore from the northern California coast today. To the east of the system, a diffluent upper-level pattern will be present from the Intermountain West into the Pacific Northwest. As surface heating takes place across the Pacific Northwest today, a pocket of weak instability will develop across Oregon, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. To the northeast of the upper-level low, large-scale ascent will aid scattered thunderstorm development. The instability, along with moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates, will likely support a marginal severe threat. The stronger rotating cells could be associated with hail and isolated damaging gusts. ..Broyles.. 04/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm associated with strong wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon and early this evening across parts of central Oregon. ...Central Oregon... An upper-level low will remain just offshore from the northern California coast today. To the east of the system, a diffluent upper-level pattern will be present from the Intermountain West into the Pacific Northwest. As surface heating takes place across the Pacific Northwest today, a pocket of weak instability will develop across Oregon, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. To the northeast of the upper-level low, large-scale ascent will aid scattered thunderstorm development. The instability, along with moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates, will likely support a marginal severe threat. The stronger rotating cells could be associated with hail and isolated damaging gusts. ..Broyles.. 04/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm associated with strong wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon and early this evening across parts of central Oregon. ...Central Oregon... An upper-level low will remain just offshore from the northern California coast today. To the east of the system, a diffluent upper-level pattern will be present from the Intermountain West into the Pacific Northwest. As surface heating takes place across the Pacific Northwest today, a pocket of weak instability will develop across Oregon, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. To the northeast of the upper-level low, large-scale ascent will aid scattered thunderstorm development. The instability, along with moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates, will likely support a marginal severe threat. The stronger rotating cells could be associated with hail and isolated damaging gusts. ..Broyles.. 04/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm associated with strong wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon and early this evening across parts of central Oregon. ...Central Oregon... An upper-level low will remain just offshore from the northern California coast today. To the east of the system, a diffluent upper-level pattern will be present from the Intermountain West into the Pacific Northwest. As surface heating takes place across the Pacific Northwest today, a pocket of weak instability will develop across Oregon, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. To the northeast of the upper-level low, large-scale ascent will aid scattered thunderstorm development. The instability, along with moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates, will likely support a marginal severe threat. The stronger rotating cells could be associated with hail and isolated damaging gusts. ..Broyles.. 04/13/2024 Read more