Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Large-scale mid- to upper-level troughing will encompass the West and also include the northern Great Plains on Sunday into Sunday night. Farther east, a weak mid-level trough will meander over FL and the Southeast U.S. vicinity, while ridging builds across the Northeast. Showers are forecast in the coastal areas of the Pacific Northwest with occasional isolated thunderstorms possible due to scant instability near the coast. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are also possible across portions of the Southeast associated with a weak mid-level trough. Elsewhere, tranquil conditions will occur across much of the central states eastward into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast states. ..Smith.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Large-scale mid- to upper-level troughing will encompass the West and also include the northern Great Plains on Sunday into Sunday night. Farther east, a weak mid-level trough will meander over FL and the Southeast U.S. vicinity, while ridging builds across the Northeast. Showers are forecast in the coastal areas of the Pacific Northwest with occasional isolated thunderstorms possible due to scant instability near the coast. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are also possible across portions of the Southeast associated with a weak mid-level trough. Elsewhere, tranquil conditions will occur across much of the central states eastward into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast states. ..Smith.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Large-scale mid- to upper-level troughing will encompass the West and also include the northern Great Plains on Sunday into Sunday night. Farther east, a weak mid-level trough will meander over FL and the Southeast U.S. vicinity, while ridging builds across the Northeast. Showers are forecast in the coastal areas of the Pacific Northwest with occasional isolated thunderstorms possible due to scant instability near the coast. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are also possible across portions of the Southeast associated with a weak mid-level trough. Elsewhere, tranquil conditions will occur across much of the central states eastward into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast states. ..Smith.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Large-scale mid- to upper-level troughing will encompass the West and also include the northern Great Plains on Sunday into Sunday night. Farther east, a weak mid-level trough will meander over FL and the Southeast U.S. vicinity, while ridging builds across the Northeast. Showers are forecast in the coastal areas of the Pacific Northwest with occasional isolated thunderstorms possible due to scant instability near the coast. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are also possible across portions of the Southeast associated with a weak mid-level trough. Elsewhere, tranquil conditions will occur across much of the central states eastward into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast states. ..Smith.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Large-scale mid- to upper-level troughing will encompass the West and also include the northern Great Plains on Sunday into Sunday night. Farther east, a weak mid-level trough will meander over FL and the Southeast U.S. vicinity, while ridging builds across the Northeast. Showers are forecast in the coastal areas of the Pacific Northwest with occasional isolated thunderstorms possible due to scant instability near the coast. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are also possible across portions of the Southeast associated with a weak mid-level trough. Elsewhere, tranquil conditions will occur across much of the central states eastward into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast states. ..Smith.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Large-scale mid- to upper-level troughing will encompass the West and also include the northern Great Plains on Sunday into Sunday night. Farther east, a weak mid-level trough will meander over FL and the Southeast U.S. vicinity, while ridging builds across the Northeast. Showers are forecast in the coastal areas of the Pacific Northwest with occasional isolated thunderstorms possible due to scant instability near the coast. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are also possible across portions of the Southeast associated with a weak mid-level trough. Elsewhere, tranquil conditions will occur across much of the central states eastward into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast states. ..Smith.. 03/02/2024 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Mar 2 17:22:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN TO CENTRAL UTAH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms - primarily posing a severe wind risk - are possible across portions of Utah this afternoon. ...Synopsis... Latest water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses show a strong upper-level wave over the western CONUS with a 100-120 knot 500 mb jet nosing into central CA. This wave is expected to translate east into the Great Basin/inter-mountain West over the next 24 hours, which should support isolated thunderstorms across a large swath of the West Coast, Great Basin, and northern Rockies. Across the Southeast, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue as a diffuse cold frontal boundary continues to push east towards the Gulf/Atlantic coasts. ...Utah into far eastern Nevada... Recent surface observations reveal a 996 mb surface low over northeast NV into northwest UT with an attendant cold front draped to the southwest. This low/cold front is expected to push east across the Great Basin through the day in tandem with the mid-level trough axis. As this occurs, 50-60 knot low-level flow (sampled in 12 UTC soundings across NV and the KICX VWP) will overspread much of UT along/ahead of the front. Shallow convection is already noted along the front in IR imagery across central NV, and this activity should persist amid downstream destabilization through the afternoon. The combination of focused shallow convection along the front, 50-60 knot winds within the lowest 1-2 km, and somewhat steep low-level lapse rates (per forecast soundings and recent RAP mesoanalysis), suggests that a few strong to severe wind gusts are possible across portions of far eastern NV into UT this afternoon. ...Florida... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue across much of FL through the afternoon and evening as a cold frontal boundary gradually pushes southeast through the day. Regional 12 UTC soundings sampled poor mid-level lapse rates, but broken mid/high-level clouds have allowed for modest diurnal destabilization with temperatures climbing into the mid 70s. If temperatures can continue to warm into the low 80s, diurnal heating/mixing may be sufficient to overcome low-level inhibition and support a few deeper updrafts. With 30-40 knot mid-level level flow moving in this afternoon, a few stronger organized storms seem plausible. However, latest ensemble guidance shows a mixed signal on whether such heating can take place, and extensive cloud cover over the region limits overall confidence in the severe threat. ..Moore.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN TO CENTRAL UTAH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms - primarily posing a severe wind risk - are possible across portions of Utah this afternoon. ...Synopsis... Latest water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses show a strong upper-level wave over the western CONUS with a 100-120 knot 500 mb jet nosing into central CA. This wave is expected to translate east into the Great Basin/inter-mountain West over the next 24 hours, which should support isolated thunderstorms across a large swath of the West Coast, Great Basin, and northern Rockies. Across the Southeast, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue as a diffuse cold frontal boundary continues to push east towards the Gulf/Atlantic coasts. ...Utah into far eastern Nevada... Recent surface observations reveal a 996 mb surface low over northeast NV into northwest UT with an attendant cold front draped to the southwest. This low/cold front is expected to push east across the Great Basin through the day in tandem with the mid-level trough axis. As this occurs, 50-60 knot low-level flow (sampled in 12 UTC soundings across NV and the KICX VWP) will overspread much of UT along/ahead of the front. Shallow convection is already noted along the front in IR imagery across central NV, and this activity should persist amid downstream destabilization through the afternoon. The combination of focused shallow convection along the front, 50-60 knot winds within the lowest 1-2 km, and somewhat steep low-level lapse rates (per forecast soundings and recent RAP mesoanalysis), suggests that a few strong to severe wind gusts are possible across portions of far eastern NV into UT this afternoon. ...Florida... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue across much of FL through the afternoon and evening as a cold frontal boundary gradually pushes southeast through the day. Regional 12 UTC soundings sampled poor mid-level lapse rates, but broken mid/high-level clouds have allowed for modest diurnal destabilization with temperatures climbing into the mid 70s. If temperatures can continue to warm into the low 80s, diurnal heating/mixing may be sufficient to overcome low-level inhibition and support a few deeper updrafts. With 30-40 knot mid-level level flow moving in this afternoon, a few stronger organized storms seem plausible. However, latest ensemble guidance shows a mixed signal on whether such heating can take place, and extensive cloud cover over the region limits overall confidence in the severe threat. ..Moore.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN TO CENTRAL UTAH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms - primarily posing a severe wind risk - are possible across portions of Utah this afternoon. ...Synopsis... Latest water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses show a strong upper-level wave over the western CONUS with a 100-120 knot 500 mb jet nosing into central CA. This wave is expected to translate east into the Great Basin/inter-mountain West over the next 24 hours, which should support isolated thunderstorms across a large swath of the West Coast, Great Basin, and northern Rockies. Across the Southeast, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue as a diffuse cold frontal boundary continues to push east towards the Gulf/Atlantic coasts. ...Utah into far eastern Nevada... Recent surface observations reveal a 996 mb surface low over northeast NV into northwest UT with an attendant cold front draped to the southwest. This low/cold front is expected to push east across the Great Basin through the day in tandem with the mid-level trough axis. As this occurs, 50-60 knot low-level flow (sampled in 12 UTC soundings across NV and the KICX VWP) will overspread much of UT along/ahead of the front. Shallow convection is already noted along the front in IR imagery across central NV, and this activity should persist amid downstream destabilization through the afternoon. The combination of focused shallow convection along the front, 50-60 knot winds within the lowest 1-2 km, and somewhat steep low-level lapse rates (per forecast soundings and recent RAP mesoanalysis), suggests that a few strong to severe wind gusts are possible across portions of far eastern NV into UT this afternoon. ...Florida... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue across much of FL through the afternoon and evening as a cold frontal boundary gradually pushes southeast through the day. Regional 12 UTC soundings sampled poor mid-level lapse rates, but broken mid/high-level clouds have allowed for modest diurnal destabilization with temperatures climbing into the mid 70s. If temperatures can continue to warm into the low 80s, diurnal heating/mixing may be sufficient to overcome low-level inhibition and support a few deeper updrafts. With 30-40 knot mid-level level flow moving in this afternoon, a few stronger organized storms seem plausible. However, latest ensemble guidance shows a mixed signal on whether such heating can take place, and extensive cloud cover over the region limits overall confidence in the severe threat. ..Moore.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN TO CENTRAL UTAH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms - primarily posing a severe wind risk - are possible across portions of Utah this afternoon. ...Synopsis... Latest water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses show a strong upper-level wave over the western CONUS with a 100-120 knot 500 mb jet nosing into central CA. This wave is expected to translate east into the Great Basin/inter-mountain West over the next 24 hours, which should support isolated thunderstorms across a large swath of the West Coast, Great Basin, and northern Rockies. Across the Southeast, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue as a diffuse cold frontal boundary continues to push east towards the Gulf/Atlantic coasts. ...Utah into far eastern Nevada... Recent surface observations reveal a 996 mb surface low over northeast NV into northwest UT with an attendant cold front draped to the southwest. This low/cold front is expected to push east across the Great Basin through the day in tandem with the mid-level trough axis. As this occurs, 50-60 knot low-level flow (sampled in 12 UTC soundings across NV and the KICX VWP) will overspread much of UT along/ahead of the front. Shallow convection is already noted along the front in IR imagery across central NV, and this activity should persist amid downstream destabilization through the afternoon. The combination of focused shallow convection along the front, 50-60 knot winds within the lowest 1-2 km, and somewhat steep low-level lapse rates (per forecast soundings and recent RAP mesoanalysis), suggests that a few strong to severe wind gusts are possible across portions of far eastern NV into UT this afternoon. ...Florida... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue across much of FL through the afternoon and evening as a cold frontal boundary gradually pushes southeast through the day. Regional 12 UTC soundings sampled poor mid-level lapse rates, but broken mid/high-level clouds have allowed for modest diurnal destabilization with temperatures climbing into the mid 70s. If temperatures can continue to warm into the low 80s, diurnal heating/mixing may be sufficient to overcome low-level inhibition and support a few deeper updrafts. With 30-40 knot mid-level level flow moving in this afternoon, a few stronger organized storms seem plausible. However, latest ensemble guidance shows a mixed signal on whether such heating can take place, and extensive cloud cover over the region limits overall confidence in the severe threat. ..Moore.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN TO CENTRAL UTAH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms - primarily posing a severe wind risk - are possible across portions of Utah this afternoon. ...Synopsis... Latest water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses show a strong upper-level wave over the western CONUS with a 100-120 knot 500 mb jet nosing into central CA. This wave is expected to translate east into the Great Basin/inter-mountain West over the next 24 hours, which should support isolated thunderstorms across a large swath of the West Coast, Great Basin, and northern Rockies. Across the Southeast, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue as a diffuse cold frontal boundary continues to push east towards the Gulf/Atlantic coasts. ...Utah into far eastern Nevada... Recent surface observations reveal a 996 mb surface low over northeast NV into northwest UT with an attendant cold front draped to the southwest. This low/cold front is expected to push east across the Great Basin through the day in tandem with the mid-level trough axis. As this occurs, 50-60 knot low-level flow (sampled in 12 UTC soundings across NV and the KICX VWP) will overspread much of UT along/ahead of the front. Shallow convection is already noted along the front in IR imagery across central NV, and this activity should persist amid downstream destabilization through the afternoon. The combination of focused shallow convection along the front, 50-60 knot winds within the lowest 1-2 km, and somewhat steep low-level lapse rates (per forecast soundings and recent RAP mesoanalysis), suggests that a few strong to severe wind gusts are possible across portions of far eastern NV into UT this afternoon. ...Florida... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue across much of FL through the afternoon and evening as a cold frontal boundary gradually pushes southeast through the day. Regional 12 UTC soundings sampled poor mid-level lapse rates, but broken mid/high-level clouds have allowed for modest diurnal destabilization with temperatures climbing into the mid 70s. If temperatures can continue to warm into the low 80s, diurnal heating/mixing may be sufficient to overcome low-level inhibition and support a few deeper updrafts. With 30-40 knot mid-level level flow moving in this afternoon, a few stronger organized storms seem plausible. However, latest ensemble guidance shows a mixed signal on whether such heating can take place, and extensive cloud cover over the region limits overall confidence in the severe threat. ..Moore.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN TO CENTRAL UTAH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms - primarily posing a severe wind risk - are possible across portions of Utah this afternoon. ...Synopsis... Latest water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses show a strong upper-level wave over the western CONUS with a 100-120 knot 500 mb jet nosing into central CA. This wave is expected to translate east into the Great Basin/inter-mountain West over the next 24 hours, which should support isolated thunderstorms across a large swath of the West Coast, Great Basin, and northern Rockies. Across the Southeast, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue as a diffuse cold frontal boundary continues to push east towards the Gulf/Atlantic coasts. ...Utah into far eastern Nevada... Recent surface observations reveal a 996 mb surface low over northeast NV into northwest UT with an attendant cold front draped to the southwest. This low/cold front is expected to push east across the Great Basin through the day in tandem with the mid-level trough axis. As this occurs, 50-60 knot low-level flow (sampled in 12 UTC soundings across NV and the KICX VWP) will overspread much of UT along/ahead of the front. Shallow convection is already noted along the front in IR imagery across central NV, and this activity should persist amid downstream destabilization through the afternoon. The combination of focused shallow convection along the front, 50-60 knot winds within the lowest 1-2 km, and somewhat steep low-level lapse rates (per forecast soundings and recent RAP mesoanalysis), suggests that a few strong to severe wind gusts are possible across portions of far eastern NV into UT this afternoon. ...Florida... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue across much of FL through the afternoon and evening as a cold frontal boundary gradually pushes southeast through the day. Regional 12 UTC soundings sampled poor mid-level lapse rates, but broken mid/high-level clouds have allowed for modest diurnal destabilization with temperatures climbing into the mid 70s. If temperatures can continue to warm into the low 80s, diurnal heating/mixing may be sufficient to overcome low-level inhibition and support a few deeper updrafts. With 30-40 knot mid-level level flow moving in this afternoon, a few stronger organized storms seem plausible. However, latest ensemble guidance shows a mixed signal on whether such heating can take place, and extensive cloud cover over the region limits overall confidence in the severe threat. ..Moore.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN TO CENTRAL UTAH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms - primarily posing a severe wind risk - are possible across portions of Utah this afternoon. ...Synopsis... Latest water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses show a strong upper-level wave over the western CONUS with a 100-120 knot 500 mb jet nosing into central CA. This wave is expected to translate east into the Great Basin/inter-mountain West over the next 24 hours, which should support isolated thunderstorms across a large swath of the West Coast, Great Basin, and northern Rockies. Across the Southeast, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue as a diffuse cold frontal boundary continues to push east towards the Gulf/Atlantic coasts. ...Utah into far eastern Nevada... Recent surface observations reveal a 996 mb surface low over northeast NV into northwest UT with an attendant cold front draped to the southwest. This low/cold front is expected to push east across the Great Basin through the day in tandem with the mid-level trough axis. As this occurs, 50-60 knot low-level flow (sampled in 12 UTC soundings across NV and the KICX VWP) will overspread much of UT along/ahead of the front. Shallow convection is already noted along the front in IR imagery across central NV, and this activity should persist amid downstream destabilization through the afternoon. The combination of focused shallow convection along the front, 50-60 knot winds within the lowest 1-2 km, and somewhat steep low-level lapse rates (per forecast soundings and recent RAP mesoanalysis), suggests that a few strong to severe wind gusts are possible across portions of far eastern NV into UT this afternoon. ...Florida... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue across much of FL through the afternoon and evening as a cold frontal boundary gradually pushes southeast through the day. Regional 12 UTC soundings sampled poor mid-level lapse rates, but broken mid/high-level clouds have allowed for modest diurnal destabilization with temperatures climbing into the mid 70s. If temperatures can continue to warm into the low 80s, diurnal heating/mixing may be sufficient to overcome low-level inhibition and support a few deeper updrafts. With 30-40 knot mid-level level flow moving in this afternoon, a few stronger organized storms seem plausible. However, latest ensemble guidance shows a mixed signal on whether such heating can take place, and extensive cloud cover over the region limits overall confidence in the severe threat. ..Moore.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN TO CENTRAL UTAH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms - primarily posing a severe wind risk - are possible across portions of Utah this afternoon. ...Synopsis... Latest water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses show a strong upper-level wave over the western CONUS with a 100-120 knot 500 mb jet nosing into central CA. This wave is expected to translate east into the Great Basin/inter-mountain West over the next 24 hours, which should support isolated thunderstorms across a large swath of the West Coast, Great Basin, and northern Rockies. Across the Southeast, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue as a diffuse cold frontal boundary continues to push east towards the Gulf/Atlantic coasts. ...Utah into far eastern Nevada... Recent surface observations reveal a 996 mb surface low over northeast NV into northwest UT with an attendant cold front draped to the southwest. This low/cold front is expected to push east across the Great Basin through the day in tandem with the mid-level trough axis. As this occurs, 50-60 knot low-level flow (sampled in 12 UTC soundings across NV and the KICX VWP) will overspread much of UT along/ahead of the front. Shallow convection is already noted along the front in IR imagery across central NV, and this activity should persist amid downstream destabilization through the afternoon. The combination of focused shallow convection along the front, 50-60 knot winds within the lowest 1-2 km, and somewhat steep low-level lapse rates (per forecast soundings and recent RAP mesoanalysis), suggests that a few strong to severe wind gusts are possible across portions of far eastern NV into UT this afternoon. ...Florida... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue across much of FL through the afternoon and evening as a cold frontal boundary gradually pushes southeast through the day. Regional 12 UTC soundings sampled poor mid-level lapse rates, but broken mid/high-level clouds have allowed for modest diurnal destabilization with temperatures climbing into the mid 70s. If temperatures can continue to warm into the low 80s, diurnal heating/mixing may be sufficient to overcome low-level inhibition and support a few deeper updrafts. With 30-40 knot mid-level level flow moving in this afternoon, a few stronger organized storms seem plausible. However, latest ensemble guidance shows a mixed signal on whether such heating can take place, and extensive cloud cover over the region limits overall confidence in the severe threat. ..Moore.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN TO CENTRAL UTAH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms - primarily posing a severe wind risk - are possible across portions of Utah this afternoon. ...Synopsis... Latest water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses show a strong upper-level wave over the western CONUS with a 100-120 knot 500 mb jet nosing into central CA. This wave is expected to translate east into the Great Basin/inter-mountain West over the next 24 hours, which should support isolated thunderstorms across a large swath of the West Coast, Great Basin, and northern Rockies. Across the Southeast, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue as a diffuse cold frontal boundary continues to push east towards the Gulf/Atlantic coasts. ...Utah into far eastern Nevada... Recent surface observations reveal a 996 mb surface low over northeast NV into northwest UT with an attendant cold front draped to the southwest. This low/cold front is expected to push east across the Great Basin through the day in tandem with the mid-level trough axis. As this occurs, 50-60 knot low-level flow (sampled in 12 UTC soundings across NV and the KICX VWP) will overspread much of UT along/ahead of the front. Shallow convection is already noted along the front in IR imagery across central NV, and this activity should persist amid downstream destabilization through the afternoon. The combination of focused shallow convection along the front, 50-60 knot winds within the lowest 1-2 km, and somewhat steep low-level lapse rates (per forecast soundings and recent RAP mesoanalysis), suggests that a few strong to severe wind gusts are possible across portions of far eastern NV into UT this afternoon. ...Florida... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue across much of FL through the afternoon and evening as a cold frontal boundary gradually pushes southeast through the day. Regional 12 UTC soundings sampled poor mid-level lapse rates, but broken mid/high-level clouds have allowed for modest diurnal destabilization with temperatures climbing into the mid 70s. If temperatures can continue to warm into the low 80s, diurnal heating/mixing may be sufficient to overcome low-level inhibition and support a few deeper updrafts. With 30-40 knot mid-level level flow moving in this afternoon, a few stronger organized storms seem plausible. However, latest ensemble guidance shows a mixed signal on whether such heating can take place, and extensive cloud cover over the region limits overall confidence in the severe threat. ..Moore.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough accompanied by strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will move eastward across the western CONUS, with the leading edge of the strong flow aloft impinging on the Rockies during the afternoon hours. In response, a surface cyclone will rapidly deepen as it tracks slowly eastward across the northern Plains, while a deepening lee trough and tightening surface pressure gradient develop southward across much of the central and southern Plains. This large-scale pattern will result in an expansive area of warm, dry, and windy conditions across the central/southern High Plains, leading to a large area of elevated to high-end critical fire-weather conditions. ...Central and Southern High Plains... The strong deep-layer west-southwesterlies will support robust downslope warming/drying across the central and southern High Plains, where upper 60s to lower/middle 70s temperatures and 5-10 percent minimum RH is expected during the afternoon. At the same time, the tightening surface pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will favor an expansive area of 25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 40 mph). Over the I-25 corridor, gusts could reach 50-60 mph, though RH will be slightly higher compared to areas farther east over the Plains. Given mostly receptive fuels across the central and southern High Plains, high-end critical fire-weather conditions are expected -- with the most volatile fire-weather conditions expected over portions of southern CO, northeast NM, and the TX Panhandle. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough accompanied by strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will move eastward across the western CONUS, with the leading edge of the strong flow aloft impinging on the Rockies during the afternoon hours. In response, a surface cyclone will rapidly deepen as it tracks slowly eastward across the northern Plains, while a deepening lee trough and tightening surface pressure gradient develop southward across much of the central and southern Plains. This large-scale pattern will result in an expansive area of warm, dry, and windy conditions across the central/southern High Plains, leading to a large area of elevated to high-end critical fire-weather conditions. ...Central and Southern High Plains... The strong deep-layer west-southwesterlies will support robust downslope warming/drying across the central and southern High Plains, where upper 60s to lower/middle 70s temperatures and 5-10 percent minimum RH is expected during the afternoon. At the same time, the tightening surface pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will favor an expansive area of 25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 40 mph). Over the I-25 corridor, gusts could reach 50-60 mph, though RH will be slightly higher compared to areas farther east over the Plains. Given mostly receptive fuels across the central and southern High Plains, high-end critical fire-weather conditions are expected -- with the most volatile fire-weather conditions expected over portions of southern CO, northeast NM, and the TX Panhandle. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough accompanied by strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will move eastward across the western CONUS, with the leading edge of the strong flow aloft impinging on the Rockies during the afternoon hours. In response, a surface cyclone will rapidly deepen as it tracks slowly eastward across the northern Plains, while a deepening lee trough and tightening surface pressure gradient develop southward across much of the central and southern Plains. This large-scale pattern will result in an expansive area of warm, dry, and windy conditions across the central/southern High Plains, leading to a large area of elevated to high-end critical fire-weather conditions. ...Central and Southern High Plains... The strong deep-layer west-southwesterlies will support robust downslope warming/drying across the central and southern High Plains, where upper 60s to lower/middle 70s temperatures and 5-10 percent minimum RH is expected during the afternoon. At the same time, the tightening surface pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will favor an expansive area of 25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 40 mph). Over the I-25 corridor, gusts could reach 50-60 mph, though RH will be slightly higher compared to areas farther east over the Plains. Given mostly receptive fuels across the central and southern High Plains, high-end critical fire-weather conditions are expected -- with the most volatile fire-weather conditions expected over portions of southern CO, northeast NM, and the TX Panhandle. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough accompanied by strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will move eastward across the western CONUS, with the leading edge of the strong flow aloft impinging on the Rockies during the afternoon hours. In response, a surface cyclone will rapidly deepen as it tracks slowly eastward across the northern Plains, while a deepening lee trough and tightening surface pressure gradient develop southward across much of the central and southern Plains. This large-scale pattern will result in an expansive area of warm, dry, and windy conditions across the central/southern High Plains, leading to a large area of elevated to high-end critical fire-weather conditions. ...Central and Southern High Plains... The strong deep-layer west-southwesterlies will support robust downslope warming/drying across the central and southern High Plains, where upper 60s to lower/middle 70s temperatures and 5-10 percent minimum RH is expected during the afternoon. At the same time, the tightening surface pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will favor an expansive area of 25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 40 mph). Over the I-25 corridor, gusts could reach 50-60 mph, though RH will be slightly higher compared to areas farther east over the Plains. Given mostly receptive fuels across the central and southern High Plains, high-end critical fire-weather conditions are expected -- with the most volatile fire-weather conditions expected over portions of southern CO, northeast NM, and the TX Panhandle. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more