Severe Storms

MD 0182 CONCERNING SNOW SQUALL FOR SOUTHEAST IDAHO INTO FAR NORTHERN UTAH AND WESTERN WYOMING
Mesoscale Discussion 0182 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Areas affected...Southeast Idaho into far northern Utah and western Wyoming Concerning...Snow Squall Valid 021726Z - 022130Z SUMMARY...A snow squall moving across southeast Idaho into western Wyoming and far northern Utah will bring periods of moderate to heavy snowfall rates and potentially near-blizzard conditions. DISCUSSION...Over the past 1-2 hours, a somewhat organized shallow convective band has developed along an eastward-pushing cold front across southeast ID into northwest UT. Although temperatures are currently hovering near or just above freezing over the region, surface observations have reported visibility reductions down to 1/4 mile with the passage of the front, likely due to a combination of moderate to heavy snowfall rates as well as 35-45 mph wind gusts. Multiple lightning flashes have also been observed with the past 30 minutes associated with a few of the deeper convective cores. The downstream environment appears supportive for maintenance, if not enhancement, of the convective band with SBCAPE values around 250 J/kg noted in recent mesoanalyses with further destabilization up to around 500 J/kg possible by mid-afternoon across west/southwest WY. Furthermore, low-level lapse rates on the order of 8-9 C/km are noted across northern UT to central WY based on modified observed soundings and mesoanalysis fields. Dynamically, strong ascent within the left-exit region of the approach mid-level jet should continue to promote broadscale ascent favorable for further deepening of the attendant surface low, which should foster a strong frontal surge through the afternoon. The result will be a continuation of moderate to heavy snowfall rates and periods of near-blizzard conditions along and behind the snow squall/cold front for the next several hours. ..Moore.. 03/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH... LAT...LON 41831313 42431264 42911236 43561209 44261207 44521200 44721158 44731064 44661006 44480931 44100909 43620896 42910912 42370930 41840983 41571051 41551128 41601298 41831313 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A mid-level trough will eject into the northern Plains early this week, encouraging broad surface troughing and some low-level moisture return across eastern portions of the Plains states. Dry and occasionally breezy surface conditions are possible across portions of the southern into central High Plains as well as parts of the central Plains through much of the week. At the moment, these conditions appear localized, though a few Elevated highlights may be needed by the Days 1-2 periods. The best chance for at least Elevated surface winds/RH would be toward the end of the week (Days 6-8/Thursday_Saturday) over the southern High Plains as another mid-level trough amplifies over the southern U.S., encouraging dry downslope flow. ..Squitieri.. 03/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A mid-level trough will eject into the northern Plains early this week, encouraging broad surface troughing and some low-level moisture return across eastern portions of the Plains states. Dry and occasionally breezy surface conditions are possible across portions of the southern into central High Plains as well as parts of the central Plains through much of the week. At the moment, these conditions appear localized, though a few Elevated highlights may be needed by the Days 1-2 periods. The best chance for at least Elevated surface winds/RH would be toward the end of the week (Days 6-8/Thursday_Saturday) over the southern High Plains as another mid-level trough amplifies over the southern U.S., encouraging dry downslope flow. ..Squitieri.. 03/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A mid-level trough will eject into the northern Plains early this week, encouraging broad surface troughing and some low-level moisture return across eastern portions of the Plains states. Dry and occasionally breezy surface conditions are possible across portions of the southern into central High Plains as well as parts of the central Plains through much of the week. At the moment, these conditions appear localized, though a few Elevated highlights may be needed by the Days 1-2 periods. The best chance for at least Elevated surface winds/RH would be toward the end of the week (Days 6-8/Thursday_Saturday) over the southern High Plains as another mid-level trough amplifies over the southern U.S., encouraging dry downslope flow. ..Squitieri.. 03/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A mid-level trough will eject into the northern Plains early this week, encouraging broad surface troughing and some low-level moisture return across eastern portions of the Plains states. Dry and occasionally breezy surface conditions are possible across portions of the southern into central High Plains as well as parts of the central Plains through much of the week. At the moment, these conditions appear localized, though a few Elevated highlights may be needed by the Days 1-2 periods. The best chance for at least Elevated surface winds/RH would be toward the end of the week (Days 6-8/Thursday_Saturday) over the southern High Plains as another mid-level trough amplifies over the southern U.S., encouraging dry downslope flow. ..Squitieri.. 03/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A mid-level trough will eject into the northern Plains early this week, encouraging broad surface troughing and some low-level moisture return across eastern portions of the Plains states. Dry and occasionally breezy surface conditions are possible across portions of the southern into central High Plains as well as parts of the central Plains through much of the week. At the moment, these conditions appear localized, though a few Elevated highlights may be needed by the Days 1-2 periods. The best chance for at least Elevated surface winds/RH would be toward the end of the week (Days 6-8/Thursday_Saturday) over the southern High Plains as another mid-level trough amplifies over the southern U.S., encouraging dry downslope flow. ..Squitieri.. 03/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A mid-level trough will eject into the northern Plains early this week, encouraging broad surface troughing and some low-level moisture return across eastern portions of the Plains states. Dry and occasionally breezy surface conditions are possible across portions of the southern into central High Plains as well as parts of the central Plains through much of the week. At the moment, these conditions appear localized, though a few Elevated highlights may be needed by the Days 1-2 periods. The best chance for at least Elevated surface winds/RH would be toward the end of the week (Days 6-8/Thursday_Saturday) over the southern High Plains as another mid-level trough amplifies over the southern U.S., encouraging dry downslope flow. ..Squitieri.. 03/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A mid-level trough will eject into the northern Plains early this week, encouraging broad surface troughing and some low-level moisture return across eastern portions of the Plains states. Dry and occasionally breezy surface conditions are possible across portions of the southern into central High Plains as well as parts of the central Plains through much of the week. At the moment, these conditions appear localized, though a few Elevated highlights may be needed by the Days 1-2 periods. The best chance for at least Elevated surface winds/RH would be toward the end of the week (Days 6-8/Thursday_Saturday) over the southern High Plains as another mid-level trough amplifies over the southern U.S., encouraging dry downslope flow. ..Squitieri.. 03/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms - primarily posing a severe wind risk - are possible across portions of Utah this afternoon. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previously issued convective outlook. ..Smith.. 03/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Latest water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses show a strong upper-level wave over the western CONUS with a 100-120 knot 500 mb jet nosing into central CA. This wave is expected to translate east into the Great Basin/inter-mountain West over the next 24 hours, which should support isolated thunderstorms across a large swath of the West Coast, Great Basin, and northern Rockies. Across the Southeast, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue as a diffuse cold frontal boundary continues to push east towards the Gulf/Atlantic coasts. ...Utah into far eastern Nevada... Recent surface observations reveal a 996 mb surface low over northeast NV into northwest UT with an attendant cold front draped to the southwest. This low/cold front is expected to push east across the Great Basin through the day in tandem with the mid-level trough axis. As this occurs, 50-60 knot low-level flow (sampled in 12 UTC soundings across NV and the KICX VWP) will overspread much of UT along/ahead of the front. Shallow convection is already noted along the front in IR imagery across central NV, and this activity should persist amid downstream destabilization through the afternoon. The combination of focused shallow convection along the front, 50-60 knot winds within the lowest 1-2 km, and somewhat steep low-level lapse rates (per forecast soundings and recent RAP mesoanalysis), suggests that a few strong to severe wind gusts are possible across portions of far eastern NV into UT this afternoon. ...Florida... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue across much of FL through the afternoon and evening as a cold frontal boundary gradually pushes southeast through the day. Regional 12 UTC soundings sampled poor mid-level lapse rates, but broken mid/high-level clouds have allowed for modest diurnal destabilization with temperatures climbing into the mid 70s. If temperatures can continue to warm into the low 80s, diurnal heating/mixing may be sufficient to overcome low-level inhibition and support a few deeper updrafts. With 30-40 knot mid-level level flow moving in this afternoon, a few stronger organized storms seem plausible. However, latest ensemble guidance shows a mixed signal on whether such heating can take place, and extensive cloud cover over the region limits overall confidence in the severe threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms - primarily posing a severe wind risk - are possible across portions of Utah this afternoon. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previously issued convective outlook. ..Smith.. 03/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Latest water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses show a strong upper-level wave over the western CONUS with a 100-120 knot 500 mb jet nosing into central CA. This wave is expected to translate east into the Great Basin/inter-mountain West over the next 24 hours, which should support isolated thunderstorms across a large swath of the West Coast, Great Basin, and northern Rockies. Across the Southeast, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue as a diffuse cold frontal boundary continues to push east towards the Gulf/Atlantic coasts. ...Utah into far eastern Nevada... Recent surface observations reveal a 996 mb surface low over northeast NV into northwest UT with an attendant cold front draped to the southwest. This low/cold front is expected to push east across the Great Basin through the day in tandem with the mid-level trough axis. As this occurs, 50-60 knot low-level flow (sampled in 12 UTC soundings across NV and the KICX VWP) will overspread much of UT along/ahead of the front. Shallow convection is already noted along the front in IR imagery across central NV, and this activity should persist amid downstream destabilization through the afternoon. The combination of focused shallow convection along the front, 50-60 knot winds within the lowest 1-2 km, and somewhat steep low-level lapse rates (per forecast soundings and recent RAP mesoanalysis), suggests that a few strong to severe wind gusts are possible across portions of far eastern NV into UT this afternoon. ...Florida... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue across much of FL through the afternoon and evening as a cold frontal boundary gradually pushes southeast through the day. Regional 12 UTC soundings sampled poor mid-level lapse rates, but broken mid/high-level clouds have allowed for modest diurnal destabilization with temperatures climbing into the mid 70s. If temperatures can continue to warm into the low 80s, diurnal heating/mixing may be sufficient to overcome low-level inhibition and support a few deeper updrafts. With 30-40 knot mid-level level flow moving in this afternoon, a few stronger organized storms seem plausible. However, latest ensemble guidance shows a mixed signal on whether such heating can take place, and extensive cloud cover over the region limits overall confidence in the severe threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms - primarily posing a severe wind risk - are possible across portions of Utah this afternoon. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previously issued convective outlook. ..Smith.. 03/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Latest water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses show a strong upper-level wave over the western CONUS with a 100-120 knot 500 mb jet nosing into central CA. This wave is expected to translate east into the Great Basin/inter-mountain West over the next 24 hours, which should support isolated thunderstorms across a large swath of the West Coast, Great Basin, and northern Rockies. Across the Southeast, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue as a diffuse cold frontal boundary continues to push east towards the Gulf/Atlantic coasts. ...Utah into far eastern Nevada... Recent surface observations reveal a 996 mb surface low over northeast NV into northwest UT with an attendant cold front draped to the southwest. This low/cold front is expected to push east across the Great Basin through the day in tandem with the mid-level trough axis. As this occurs, 50-60 knot low-level flow (sampled in 12 UTC soundings across NV and the KICX VWP) will overspread much of UT along/ahead of the front. Shallow convection is already noted along the front in IR imagery across central NV, and this activity should persist amid downstream destabilization through the afternoon. The combination of focused shallow convection along the front, 50-60 knot winds within the lowest 1-2 km, and somewhat steep low-level lapse rates (per forecast soundings and recent RAP mesoanalysis), suggests that a few strong to severe wind gusts are possible across portions of far eastern NV into UT this afternoon. ...Florida... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue across much of FL through the afternoon and evening as a cold frontal boundary gradually pushes southeast through the day. Regional 12 UTC soundings sampled poor mid-level lapse rates, but broken mid/high-level clouds have allowed for modest diurnal destabilization with temperatures climbing into the mid 70s. If temperatures can continue to warm into the low 80s, diurnal heating/mixing may be sufficient to overcome low-level inhibition and support a few deeper updrafts. With 30-40 knot mid-level level flow moving in this afternoon, a few stronger organized storms seem plausible. However, latest ensemble guidance shows a mixed signal on whether such heating can take place, and extensive cloud cover over the region limits overall confidence in the severe threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms - primarily posing a severe wind risk - are possible across portions of Utah this afternoon. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previously issued convective outlook. ..Smith.. 03/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Latest water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses show a strong upper-level wave over the western CONUS with a 100-120 knot 500 mb jet nosing into central CA. This wave is expected to translate east into the Great Basin/inter-mountain West over the next 24 hours, which should support isolated thunderstorms across a large swath of the West Coast, Great Basin, and northern Rockies. Across the Southeast, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue as a diffuse cold frontal boundary continues to push east towards the Gulf/Atlantic coasts. ...Utah into far eastern Nevada... Recent surface observations reveal a 996 mb surface low over northeast NV into northwest UT with an attendant cold front draped to the southwest. This low/cold front is expected to push east across the Great Basin through the day in tandem with the mid-level trough axis. As this occurs, 50-60 knot low-level flow (sampled in 12 UTC soundings across NV and the KICX VWP) will overspread much of UT along/ahead of the front. Shallow convection is already noted along the front in IR imagery across central NV, and this activity should persist amid downstream destabilization through the afternoon. The combination of focused shallow convection along the front, 50-60 knot winds within the lowest 1-2 km, and somewhat steep low-level lapse rates (per forecast soundings and recent RAP mesoanalysis), suggests that a few strong to severe wind gusts are possible across portions of far eastern NV into UT this afternoon. ...Florida... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue across much of FL through the afternoon and evening as a cold frontal boundary gradually pushes southeast through the day. Regional 12 UTC soundings sampled poor mid-level lapse rates, but broken mid/high-level clouds have allowed for modest diurnal destabilization with temperatures climbing into the mid 70s. If temperatures can continue to warm into the low 80s, diurnal heating/mixing may be sufficient to overcome low-level inhibition and support a few deeper updrafts. With 30-40 knot mid-level level flow moving in this afternoon, a few stronger organized storms seem plausible. However, latest ensemble guidance shows a mixed signal on whether such heating can take place, and extensive cloud cover over the region limits overall confidence in the severe threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms - primarily posing a severe wind risk - are possible across portions of Utah this afternoon. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previously issued convective outlook. ..Smith.. 03/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Latest water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses show a strong upper-level wave over the western CONUS with a 100-120 knot 500 mb jet nosing into central CA. This wave is expected to translate east into the Great Basin/inter-mountain West over the next 24 hours, which should support isolated thunderstorms across a large swath of the West Coast, Great Basin, and northern Rockies. Across the Southeast, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue as a diffuse cold frontal boundary continues to push east towards the Gulf/Atlantic coasts. ...Utah into far eastern Nevada... Recent surface observations reveal a 996 mb surface low over northeast NV into northwest UT with an attendant cold front draped to the southwest. This low/cold front is expected to push east across the Great Basin through the day in tandem with the mid-level trough axis. As this occurs, 50-60 knot low-level flow (sampled in 12 UTC soundings across NV and the KICX VWP) will overspread much of UT along/ahead of the front. Shallow convection is already noted along the front in IR imagery across central NV, and this activity should persist amid downstream destabilization through the afternoon. The combination of focused shallow convection along the front, 50-60 knot winds within the lowest 1-2 km, and somewhat steep low-level lapse rates (per forecast soundings and recent RAP mesoanalysis), suggests that a few strong to severe wind gusts are possible across portions of far eastern NV into UT this afternoon. ...Florida... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue across much of FL through the afternoon and evening as a cold frontal boundary gradually pushes southeast through the day. Regional 12 UTC soundings sampled poor mid-level lapse rates, but broken mid/high-level clouds have allowed for modest diurnal destabilization with temperatures climbing into the mid 70s. If temperatures can continue to warm into the low 80s, diurnal heating/mixing may be sufficient to overcome low-level inhibition and support a few deeper updrafts. With 30-40 knot mid-level level flow moving in this afternoon, a few stronger organized storms seem plausible. However, latest ensemble guidance shows a mixed signal on whether such heating can take place, and extensive cloud cover over the region limits overall confidence in the severe threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms - primarily posing a severe wind risk - are possible across portions of Utah this afternoon. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previously issued convective outlook. ..Smith.. 03/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Latest water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses show a strong upper-level wave over the western CONUS with a 100-120 knot 500 mb jet nosing into central CA. This wave is expected to translate east into the Great Basin/inter-mountain West over the next 24 hours, which should support isolated thunderstorms across a large swath of the West Coast, Great Basin, and northern Rockies. Across the Southeast, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue as a diffuse cold frontal boundary continues to push east towards the Gulf/Atlantic coasts. ...Utah into far eastern Nevada... Recent surface observations reveal a 996 mb surface low over northeast NV into northwest UT with an attendant cold front draped to the southwest. This low/cold front is expected to push east across the Great Basin through the day in tandem with the mid-level trough axis. As this occurs, 50-60 knot low-level flow (sampled in 12 UTC soundings across NV and the KICX VWP) will overspread much of UT along/ahead of the front. Shallow convection is already noted along the front in IR imagery across central NV, and this activity should persist amid downstream destabilization through the afternoon. The combination of focused shallow convection along the front, 50-60 knot winds within the lowest 1-2 km, and somewhat steep low-level lapse rates (per forecast soundings and recent RAP mesoanalysis), suggests that a few strong to severe wind gusts are possible across portions of far eastern NV into UT this afternoon. ...Florida... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue across much of FL through the afternoon and evening as a cold frontal boundary gradually pushes southeast through the day. Regional 12 UTC soundings sampled poor mid-level lapse rates, but broken mid/high-level clouds have allowed for modest diurnal destabilization with temperatures climbing into the mid 70s. If temperatures can continue to warm into the low 80s, diurnal heating/mixing may be sufficient to overcome low-level inhibition and support a few deeper updrafts. With 30-40 knot mid-level level flow moving in this afternoon, a few stronger organized storms seem plausible. However, latest ensemble guidance shows a mixed signal on whether such heating can take place, and extensive cloud cover over the region limits overall confidence in the severe threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms - primarily posing a severe wind risk - are possible across portions of Utah this afternoon. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previously issued convective outlook. ..Smith.. 03/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Latest water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses show a strong upper-level wave over the western CONUS with a 100-120 knot 500 mb jet nosing into central CA. This wave is expected to translate east into the Great Basin/inter-mountain West over the next 24 hours, which should support isolated thunderstorms across a large swath of the West Coast, Great Basin, and northern Rockies. Across the Southeast, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue as a diffuse cold frontal boundary continues to push east towards the Gulf/Atlantic coasts. ...Utah into far eastern Nevada... Recent surface observations reveal a 996 mb surface low over northeast NV into northwest UT with an attendant cold front draped to the southwest. This low/cold front is expected to push east across the Great Basin through the day in tandem with the mid-level trough axis. As this occurs, 50-60 knot low-level flow (sampled in 12 UTC soundings across NV and the KICX VWP) will overspread much of UT along/ahead of the front. Shallow convection is already noted along the front in IR imagery across central NV, and this activity should persist amid downstream destabilization through the afternoon. The combination of focused shallow convection along the front, 50-60 knot winds within the lowest 1-2 km, and somewhat steep low-level lapse rates (per forecast soundings and recent RAP mesoanalysis), suggests that a few strong to severe wind gusts are possible across portions of far eastern NV into UT this afternoon. ...Florida... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue across much of FL through the afternoon and evening as a cold frontal boundary gradually pushes southeast through the day. Regional 12 UTC soundings sampled poor mid-level lapse rates, but broken mid/high-level clouds have allowed for modest diurnal destabilization with temperatures climbing into the mid 70s. If temperatures can continue to warm into the low 80s, diurnal heating/mixing may be sufficient to overcome low-level inhibition and support a few deeper updrafts. With 30-40 knot mid-level level flow moving in this afternoon, a few stronger organized storms seem plausible. However, latest ensemble guidance shows a mixed signal on whether such heating can take place, and extensive cloud cover over the region limits overall confidence in the severe threat. Read more

MD 0183 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT INTO WASATCH VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 0183 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Areas affected...the Great Salt Lake Desert into Wasatch vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 021755Z - 022030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity may overspread the region, including much of the Salt Lake City area, through 2-3 PM MST, accompanied by potentially damaging surface gusts, small hail, sharply reduced visibilities and a changeover of precipitation to at least a brief period of heavy snow. DISCUSSION...Forecast soundings indicate thermodynamic profiles with largely sub-freezing temperatures and/or wet-bulb temperatures across the Great Salt Lake Desert into Wasatch vicinity, except for initially a shallow near-surface layer over lower elevations. With insolation, a modestly deep and well-mixed boundary-layer appears to be evolving in advance of an approaching cold front, with sufficient moisture to support the development of weak boundary-layer based CAPE. With continuing insolation, further cooling aloft will support additional destabilization through mid afternoon. Deepening pre-frontal convective development, some of which has begun to produce lightning, is already underway upstream in response to the destabilization, aided by forcing for ascent ahead of mid-level troughing overspreading much of the Great Basin and Northwest. One northeastward progressing embedded short wave perturbation appears to passing near or to the northwest of the Great Salt Lake, with another trailing to its southwest. It appears that associated forcing for ascent may be accompanied by a developing cluster of convection with embedded thunderstorms overspreading the Great Salt Lake Desert into Wasatch vicinity through 20-22Z. Beneath the exit region of a vigorous upper jet streak, Rapid Refresh and NAM output indicate strong mean flow on the order of 45-50+ kt developing in the lowest few kilometers above ground-level, both ahead and to the rear of the convection. Coupled with latent cooling in convective downdrafts, aided by melting small hail or graupel, downward mixing of momentum may promote strong to severe gusts reaching the surface. This may also coincide with a precipitation changeover from rain and graupel to at least a brief period of heavy snow, contributing to sharply reduced visibilities as surface temperatures cool to near freezing. ..Kerr/Hart.. 03/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SLC...LKN... LAT...LON 40701408 41461309 41391244 40731205 39441349 39441442 39871463 40701408 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The major change made to this outlook was to expand Elevated highlights into much of the central Plains. Some questions remain regarding how strong the surface winds will become within either the post cold-frontal regime or immediately ahead of the surface trough. Nonetheless, there is a general agreement among guidance members that some increase in sustained winds (i.e. 15+ mph) is likely over parts of the central Plains Sunday afternoon. In addition, prolonged dry conditions across the central Plains suggest that fuels should support rapid wildfire-spread. Furthermore, the latest guidance consensus shows RH dipping into the 20-25 percent range by afternoon ahead and immediately behind the cold front as a very dry boundary layer advects northeast from the High Plains over the next 24 hours. If later guidance consensus shows stronger winds/lower RH across the central Plains than what is currently depicted, an upgrade to Critical highlights may be needed by Day 1. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track across the southern High Plains, where Critical highlights have been maintained. ..Squitieri.. 03/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong midlevel westerly flow will persist across the central/southern Rockies and adjacent Plains on D2/Sunday, with the primary embedded speed maximum expected to cross the CO Rockies during the afternoon. This will yield lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO/western KS, with an associated tight surface pressure gradient developing across much of the central and southern High Plains. Similar to D1/Saturday, this pattern will favor an expansive area of warm, dry, and windy conditions over receptive fuels -- with elevated to critical fire-weather conditions expected. ...Central and Southern High Plains... In response to the tightening surface pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft, an expansive area of 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) are expected across much of the central and southern High Plains. Here, continued downslope warming/drying and deep mixing will contribute to 10-15 percent minimum RH. Slightly cooler temperatures and higher RH are expected along the I-25 corridor, though gusts upwards of 60 mph and receptive fuels should compensate for this. While guidance suggests a slight minimum in the strong sustained surface winds over parts of the TX South Plains, low RH and breezy/gusty surface winds should still favor near-critical to critical conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The major change made to this outlook was to expand Elevated highlights into much of the central Plains. Some questions remain regarding how strong the surface winds will become within either the post cold-frontal regime or immediately ahead of the surface trough. Nonetheless, there is a general agreement among guidance members that some increase in sustained winds (i.e. 15+ mph) is likely over parts of the central Plains Sunday afternoon. In addition, prolonged dry conditions across the central Plains suggest that fuels should support rapid wildfire-spread. Furthermore, the latest guidance consensus shows RH dipping into the 20-25 percent range by afternoon ahead and immediately behind the cold front as a very dry boundary layer advects northeast from the High Plains over the next 24 hours. If later guidance consensus shows stronger winds/lower RH across the central Plains than what is currently depicted, an upgrade to Critical highlights may be needed by Day 1. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track across the southern High Plains, where Critical highlights have been maintained. ..Squitieri.. 03/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong midlevel westerly flow will persist across the central/southern Rockies and adjacent Plains on D2/Sunday, with the primary embedded speed maximum expected to cross the CO Rockies during the afternoon. This will yield lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO/western KS, with an associated tight surface pressure gradient developing across much of the central and southern High Plains. Similar to D1/Saturday, this pattern will favor an expansive area of warm, dry, and windy conditions over receptive fuels -- with elevated to critical fire-weather conditions expected. ...Central and Southern High Plains... In response to the tightening surface pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft, an expansive area of 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) are expected across much of the central and southern High Plains. Here, continued downslope warming/drying and deep mixing will contribute to 10-15 percent minimum RH. Slightly cooler temperatures and higher RH are expected along the I-25 corridor, though gusts upwards of 60 mph and receptive fuels should compensate for this. While guidance suggests a slight minimum in the strong sustained surface winds over parts of the TX South Plains, low RH and breezy/gusty surface winds should still favor near-critical to critical conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The major change made to this outlook was to expand Elevated highlights into much of the central Plains. Some questions remain regarding how strong the surface winds will become within either the post cold-frontal regime or immediately ahead of the surface trough. Nonetheless, there is a general agreement among guidance members that some increase in sustained winds (i.e. 15+ mph) is likely over parts of the central Plains Sunday afternoon. In addition, prolonged dry conditions across the central Plains suggest that fuels should support rapid wildfire-spread. Furthermore, the latest guidance consensus shows RH dipping into the 20-25 percent range by afternoon ahead and immediately behind the cold front as a very dry boundary layer advects northeast from the High Plains over the next 24 hours. If later guidance consensus shows stronger winds/lower RH across the central Plains than what is currently depicted, an upgrade to Critical highlights may be needed by Day 1. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track across the southern High Plains, where Critical highlights have been maintained. ..Squitieri.. 03/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong midlevel westerly flow will persist across the central/southern Rockies and adjacent Plains on D2/Sunday, with the primary embedded speed maximum expected to cross the CO Rockies during the afternoon. This will yield lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO/western KS, with an associated tight surface pressure gradient developing across much of the central and southern High Plains. Similar to D1/Saturday, this pattern will favor an expansive area of warm, dry, and windy conditions over receptive fuels -- with elevated to critical fire-weather conditions expected. ...Central and Southern High Plains... In response to the tightening surface pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft, an expansive area of 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) are expected across much of the central and southern High Plains. Here, continued downslope warming/drying and deep mixing will contribute to 10-15 percent minimum RH. Slightly cooler temperatures and higher RH are expected along the I-25 corridor, though gusts upwards of 60 mph and receptive fuels should compensate for this. While guidance suggests a slight minimum in the strong sustained surface winds over parts of the TX South Plains, low RH and breezy/gusty surface winds should still favor near-critical to critical conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The major change made to this outlook was to expand Elevated highlights into much of the central Plains. Some questions remain regarding how strong the surface winds will become within either the post cold-frontal regime or immediately ahead of the surface trough. Nonetheless, there is a general agreement among guidance members that some increase in sustained winds (i.e. 15+ mph) is likely over parts of the central Plains Sunday afternoon. In addition, prolonged dry conditions across the central Plains suggest that fuels should support rapid wildfire-spread. Furthermore, the latest guidance consensus shows RH dipping into the 20-25 percent range by afternoon ahead and immediately behind the cold front as a very dry boundary layer advects northeast from the High Plains over the next 24 hours. If later guidance consensus shows stronger winds/lower RH across the central Plains than what is currently depicted, an upgrade to Critical highlights may be needed by Day 1. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track across the southern High Plains, where Critical highlights have been maintained. ..Squitieri.. 03/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong midlevel westerly flow will persist across the central/southern Rockies and adjacent Plains on D2/Sunday, with the primary embedded speed maximum expected to cross the CO Rockies during the afternoon. This will yield lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO/western KS, with an associated tight surface pressure gradient developing across much of the central and southern High Plains. Similar to D1/Saturday, this pattern will favor an expansive area of warm, dry, and windy conditions over receptive fuels -- with elevated to critical fire-weather conditions expected. ...Central and Southern High Plains... In response to the tightening surface pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft, an expansive area of 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) are expected across much of the central and southern High Plains. Here, continued downslope warming/drying and deep mixing will contribute to 10-15 percent minimum RH. Slightly cooler temperatures and higher RH are expected along the I-25 corridor, though gusts upwards of 60 mph and receptive fuels should compensate for this. While guidance suggests a slight minimum in the strong sustained surface winds over parts of the TX South Plains, low RH and breezy/gusty surface winds should still favor near-critical to critical conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more