Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A belt of strong west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the Rockies and adjacent Plains, while an embedded shortwave trough and attendant surface cyclone lift northeastward across the northern Plains. At the same time, the core of the strongest flow aloft will overspread the central Rockies, encouraging secondary/lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO into western KS. In response to these developments, a tight surface pressure gradient will develop across much of the Great Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley, where seasonably warm, dry, and windy conditions will favor widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern High Plains... Along/south of the deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (higher along the I-25 corridor) will develop across much of the southern High Plains in response to the tightening surface pressure gradient. In addition, deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will support gusts upwards of 30-40 mph over the Plains, and 50-60 mph gusts along the higher terrain/I-25 corridor. These strong/gusty surface winds, coupled with 10-15 percent minimum RH (aided by the strong downsloping), will yield critical fire-weather conditions given dry fuels across the region. While a slight minimum in sustained surface winds is possible over the TX South Plains (owing to terrain influences), breezy/gusty winds amid single-digit RH should still support near-critical to critical conditions. For the northern Plains, the strongest westerly surface winds will generally remain to the north of the lowest RH (where cooler surface temperatures are expected). However, high-end elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are still expected given 25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). Similarly, 20-25 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop across the Mid/Upper MS Valley -- along the eastern periphery of the lowest RH. Despite the slightly higher RH here, high-end elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are still expected owing to the strong/gusty surface winds atop increasingly receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 03/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A belt of strong west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the Rockies and adjacent Plains, while an embedded shortwave trough and attendant surface cyclone lift northeastward across the northern Plains. At the same time, the core of the strongest flow aloft will overspread the central Rockies, encouraging secondary/lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO into western KS. In response to these developments, a tight surface pressure gradient will develop across much of the Great Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley, where seasonably warm, dry, and windy conditions will favor widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern High Plains... Along/south of the deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (higher along the I-25 corridor) will develop across much of the southern High Plains in response to the tightening surface pressure gradient. In addition, deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will support gusts upwards of 30-40 mph over the Plains, and 50-60 mph gusts along the higher terrain/I-25 corridor. These strong/gusty surface winds, coupled with 10-15 percent minimum RH (aided by the strong downsloping), will yield critical fire-weather conditions given dry fuels across the region. While a slight minimum in sustained surface winds is possible over the TX South Plains (owing to terrain influences), breezy/gusty winds amid single-digit RH should still support near-critical to critical conditions. For the northern Plains, the strongest westerly surface winds will generally remain to the north of the lowest RH (where cooler surface temperatures are expected). However, high-end elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are still expected given 25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). Similarly, 20-25 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop across the Mid/Upper MS Valley -- along the eastern periphery of the lowest RH. Despite the slightly higher RH here, high-end elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are still expected owing to the strong/gusty surface winds atop increasingly receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 03/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A belt of strong west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the Rockies and adjacent Plains, while an embedded shortwave trough and attendant surface cyclone lift northeastward across the northern Plains. At the same time, the core of the strongest flow aloft will overspread the central Rockies, encouraging secondary/lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO into western KS. In response to these developments, a tight surface pressure gradient will develop across much of the Great Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley, where seasonably warm, dry, and windy conditions will favor widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern High Plains... Along/south of the deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (higher along the I-25 corridor) will develop across much of the southern High Plains in response to the tightening surface pressure gradient. In addition, deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will support gusts upwards of 30-40 mph over the Plains, and 50-60 mph gusts along the higher terrain/I-25 corridor. These strong/gusty surface winds, coupled with 10-15 percent minimum RH (aided by the strong downsloping), will yield critical fire-weather conditions given dry fuels across the region. While a slight minimum in sustained surface winds is possible over the TX South Plains (owing to terrain influences), breezy/gusty winds amid single-digit RH should still support near-critical to critical conditions. For the northern Plains, the strongest westerly surface winds will generally remain to the north of the lowest RH (where cooler surface temperatures are expected). However, high-end elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are still expected given 25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). Similarly, 20-25 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop across the Mid/Upper MS Valley -- along the eastern periphery of the lowest RH. Despite the slightly higher RH here, high-end elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are still expected owing to the strong/gusty surface winds atop increasingly receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 03/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A belt of strong west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the Rockies and adjacent Plains, while an embedded shortwave trough and attendant surface cyclone lift northeastward across the northern Plains. At the same time, the core of the strongest flow aloft will overspread the central Rockies, encouraging secondary/lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO into western KS. In response to these developments, a tight surface pressure gradient will develop across much of the Great Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley, where seasonably warm, dry, and windy conditions will favor widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern High Plains... Along/south of the deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (higher along the I-25 corridor) will develop across much of the southern High Plains in response to the tightening surface pressure gradient. In addition, deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will support gusts upwards of 30-40 mph over the Plains, and 50-60 mph gusts along the higher terrain/I-25 corridor. These strong/gusty surface winds, coupled with 10-15 percent minimum RH (aided by the strong downsloping), will yield critical fire-weather conditions given dry fuels across the region. While a slight minimum in sustained surface winds is possible over the TX South Plains (owing to terrain influences), breezy/gusty winds amid single-digit RH should still support near-critical to critical conditions. For the northern Plains, the strongest westerly surface winds will generally remain to the north of the lowest RH (where cooler surface temperatures are expected). However, high-end elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are still expected given 25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). Similarly, 20-25 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop across the Mid/Upper MS Valley -- along the eastern periphery of the lowest RH. Despite the slightly higher RH here, high-end elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are still expected owing to the strong/gusty surface winds atop increasingly receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 03/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday through Monday night from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail should be the main threat, but occasional strong/gusty winds may also occur. ...Synopsis... A split flow upper pattern will persist on Monday across the CONUS, with a southern-stream upper jet extending across northern Mexico and parts of the southern Plains through the day. Farther north, broad upper troughing will remain over much of the northwestern states into the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. A subtle mid-level shortwave trough moving eastward across TX and the lower MS Valley may encourage convective development through the period, while thunderstorm initiation from the Ozarks into the mid MS Valley/Midwest may be tied more to a southeastward-moving cold front Monday evening through early Tuesday morning. ...Central Texas into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley... A moist low-level airmass will be present along/east of a surface dryline across central TX Monday afternoon. The presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and diurnal heating of the moist airmass will support the development of weak to moderate instability from parts of central/east TX into the lower MS Valley/Mid-South. While mid-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong, it should still be enough to foster some updraft organization with around 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear. The main uncertainty is convective initiation through the day, as a lingering cap and generally weak forcing associated with the ejecting mid-level shortwave trough may keep overall thunderstorm coverage fairly isolated. Still, some guidance suggests that convection will gradually increase in intensity and coverage through Monday evening in a modest low-level warm advection regime. Additional thunderstorms may develop along/east of the dryline extending southward into central TX. Any convection that can initiate may pose an isolated threat for large hail and strong to locally damaging winds as it continues eastward through Monday night. The Marginal Risk has been expanded westward into parts of central TX to account for the possibility of isolated initiation along the dryline. But, confidence in a corridor of greater severe potential remains too low to include higher severe hail probabilities across this region. ...Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley and Midwest... Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing Monday morning across parts of IA and vicinity, associated with a northeastward-ejecting shortwave trough embedded within the larger upper troughing present over the northern/central Plains. This activity is expected to remain elevated as it continues northeastward across the Upper Midwest through the day. At the surface, a weak low is forecast to develop northeastward from the central Plains to the Midwest along a southeastward-advancing cold front. Modest low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, should advance northeastward through the period ahead of the front. Even with the quality of the low-level moisture remaining limited, somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates should aid in at least weak MUCAPE developing by Monday evening. While the stronger mid/upper-level southwesterly flow will likely remain displaced to the cool side of the front, sufficient deep-layer shear to support updraft organization should be present over the warm sector extending from the Ozarks into the mid MS Valley/Midwest. Most guidance shows a convective precipitation signal along the front beginning Monday evening and continuing through early Tuesday morning. Isolated severe hail may occur with any of the stronger cells that can develop and remain at least semi-discrete. Occasional strong/gusty winds may also occur, even though low-level stability from nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer may mostly hinder convective downdrafts from reaching the surface. ..Gleason.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday through Monday night from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail should be the main threat, but occasional strong/gusty winds may also occur. ...Synopsis... A split flow upper pattern will persist on Monday across the CONUS, with a southern-stream upper jet extending across northern Mexico and parts of the southern Plains through the day. Farther north, broad upper troughing will remain over much of the northwestern states into the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. A subtle mid-level shortwave trough moving eastward across TX and the lower MS Valley may encourage convective development through the period, while thunderstorm initiation from the Ozarks into the mid MS Valley/Midwest may be tied more to a southeastward-moving cold front Monday evening through early Tuesday morning. ...Central Texas into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley... A moist low-level airmass will be present along/east of a surface dryline across central TX Monday afternoon. The presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and diurnal heating of the moist airmass will support the development of weak to moderate instability from parts of central/east TX into the lower MS Valley/Mid-South. While mid-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong, it should still be enough to foster some updraft organization with around 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear. The main uncertainty is convective initiation through the day, as a lingering cap and generally weak forcing associated with the ejecting mid-level shortwave trough may keep overall thunderstorm coverage fairly isolated. Still, some guidance suggests that convection will gradually increase in intensity and coverage through Monday evening in a modest low-level warm advection regime. Additional thunderstorms may develop along/east of the dryline extending southward into central TX. Any convection that can initiate may pose an isolated threat for large hail and strong to locally damaging winds as it continues eastward through Monday night. The Marginal Risk has been expanded westward into parts of central TX to account for the possibility of isolated initiation along the dryline. But, confidence in a corridor of greater severe potential remains too low to include higher severe hail probabilities across this region. ...Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley and Midwest... Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing Monday morning across parts of IA and vicinity, associated with a northeastward-ejecting shortwave trough embedded within the larger upper troughing present over the northern/central Plains. This activity is expected to remain elevated as it continues northeastward across the Upper Midwest through the day. At the surface, a weak low is forecast to develop northeastward from the central Plains to the Midwest along a southeastward-advancing cold front. Modest low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, should advance northeastward through the period ahead of the front. Even with the quality of the low-level moisture remaining limited, somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates should aid in at least weak MUCAPE developing by Monday evening. While the stronger mid/upper-level southwesterly flow will likely remain displaced to the cool side of the front, sufficient deep-layer shear to support updraft organization should be present over the warm sector extending from the Ozarks into the mid MS Valley/Midwest. Most guidance shows a convective precipitation signal along the front beginning Monday evening and continuing through early Tuesday morning. Isolated severe hail may occur with any of the stronger cells that can develop and remain at least semi-discrete. Occasional strong/gusty winds may also occur, even though low-level stability from nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer may mostly hinder convective downdrafts from reaching the surface. ..Gleason.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday through Monday night from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail should be the main threat, but occasional strong/gusty winds may also occur. ...Synopsis... A split flow upper pattern will persist on Monday across the CONUS, with a southern-stream upper jet extending across northern Mexico and parts of the southern Plains through the day. Farther north, broad upper troughing will remain over much of the northwestern states into the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. A subtle mid-level shortwave trough moving eastward across TX and the lower MS Valley may encourage convective development through the period, while thunderstorm initiation from the Ozarks into the mid MS Valley/Midwest may be tied more to a southeastward-moving cold front Monday evening through early Tuesday morning. ...Central Texas into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley... A moist low-level airmass will be present along/east of a surface dryline across central TX Monday afternoon. The presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and diurnal heating of the moist airmass will support the development of weak to moderate instability from parts of central/east TX into the lower MS Valley/Mid-South. While mid-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong, it should still be enough to foster some updraft organization with around 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear. The main uncertainty is convective initiation through the day, as a lingering cap and generally weak forcing associated with the ejecting mid-level shortwave trough may keep overall thunderstorm coverage fairly isolated. Still, some guidance suggests that convection will gradually increase in intensity and coverage through Monday evening in a modest low-level warm advection regime. Additional thunderstorms may develop along/east of the dryline extending southward into central TX. Any convection that can initiate may pose an isolated threat for large hail and strong to locally damaging winds as it continues eastward through Monday night. The Marginal Risk has been expanded westward into parts of central TX to account for the possibility of isolated initiation along the dryline. But, confidence in a corridor of greater severe potential remains too low to include higher severe hail probabilities across this region. ...Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley and Midwest... Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing Monday morning across parts of IA and vicinity, associated with a northeastward-ejecting shortwave trough embedded within the larger upper troughing present over the northern/central Plains. This activity is expected to remain elevated as it continues northeastward across the Upper Midwest through the day. At the surface, a weak low is forecast to develop northeastward from the central Plains to the Midwest along a southeastward-advancing cold front. Modest low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, should advance northeastward through the period ahead of the front. Even with the quality of the low-level moisture remaining limited, somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates should aid in at least weak MUCAPE developing by Monday evening. While the stronger mid/upper-level southwesterly flow will likely remain displaced to the cool side of the front, sufficient deep-layer shear to support updraft organization should be present over the warm sector extending from the Ozarks into the mid MS Valley/Midwest. Most guidance shows a convective precipitation signal along the front beginning Monday evening and continuing through early Tuesday morning. Isolated severe hail may occur with any of the stronger cells that can develop and remain at least semi-discrete. Occasional strong/gusty winds may also occur, even though low-level stability from nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer may mostly hinder convective downdrafts from reaching the surface. ..Gleason.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday through Monday night from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail should be the main threat, but occasional strong/gusty winds may also occur. ...Synopsis... A split flow upper pattern will persist on Monday across the CONUS, with a southern-stream upper jet extending across northern Mexico and parts of the southern Plains through the day. Farther north, broad upper troughing will remain over much of the northwestern states into the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. A subtle mid-level shortwave trough moving eastward across TX and the lower MS Valley may encourage convective development through the period, while thunderstorm initiation from the Ozarks into the mid MS Valley/Midwest may be tied more to a southeastward-moving cold front Monday evening through early Tuesday morning. ...Central Texas into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley... A moist low-level airmass will be present along/east of a surface dryline across central TX Monday afternoon. The presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and diurnal heating of the moist airmass will support the development of weak to moderate instability from parts of central/east TX into the lower MS Valley/Mid-South. While mid-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong, it should still be enough to foster some updraft organization with around 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear. The main uncertainty is convective initiation through the day, as a lingering cap and generally weak forcing associated with the ejecting mid-level shortwave trough may keep overall thunderstorm coverage fairly isolated. Still, some guidance suggests that convection will gradually increase in intensity and coverage through Monday evening in a modest low-level warm advection regime. Additional thunderstorms may develop along/east of the dryline extending southward into central TX. Any convection that can initiate may pose an isolated threat for large hail and strong to locally damaging winds as it continues eastward through Monday night. The Marginal Risk has been expanded westward into parts of central TX to account for the possibility of isolated initiation along the dryline. But, confidence in a corridor of greater severe potential remains too low to include higher severe hail probabilities across this region. ...Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley and Midwest... Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing Monday morning across parts of IA and vicinity, associated with a northeastward-ejecting shortwave trough embedded within the larger upper troughing present over the northern/central Plains. This activity is expected to remain elevated as it continues northeastward across the Upper Midwest through the day. At the surface, a weak low is forecast to develop northeastward from the central Plains to the Midwest along a southeastward-advancing cold front. Modest low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, should advance northeastward through the period ahead of the front. Even with the quality of the low-level moisture remaining limited, somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates should aid in at least weak MUCAPE developing by Monday evening. While the stronger mid/upper-level southwesterly flow will likely remain displaced to the cool side of the front, sufficient deep-layer shear to support updraft organization should be present over the warm sector extending from the Ozarks into the mid MS Valley/Midwest. Most guidance shows a convective precipitation signal along the front beginning Monday evening and continuing through early Tuesday morning. Isolated severe hail may occur with any of the stronger cells that can develop and remain at least semi-discrete. Occasional strong/gusty winds may also occur, even though low-level stability from nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer may mostly hinder convective downdrafts from reaching the surface. ..Gleason.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday through Monday night from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail should be the main threat, but occasional strong/gusty winds may also occur. ...Synopsis... A split flow upper pattern will persist on Monday across the CONUS, with a southern-stream upper jet extending across northern Mexico and parts of the southern Plains through the day. Farther north, broad upper troughing will remain over much of the northwestern states into the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. A subtle mid-level shortwave trough moving eastward across TX and the lower MS Valley may encourage convective development through the period, while thunderstorm initiation from the Ozarks into the mid MS Valley/Midwest may be tied more to a southeastward-moving cold front Monday evening through early Tuesday morning. ...Central Texas into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley... A moist low-level airmass will be present along/east of a surface dryline across central TX Monday afternoon. The presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and diurnal heating of the moist airmass will support the development of weak to moderate instability from parts of central/east TX into the lower MS Valley/Mid-South. While mid-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong, it should still be enough to foster some updraft organization with around 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear. The main uncertainty is convective initiation through the day, as a lingering cap and generally weak forcing associated with the ejecting mid-level shortwave trough may keep overall thunderstorm coverage fairly isolated. Still, some guidance suggests that convection will gradually increase in intensity and coverage through Monday evening in a modest low-level warm advection regime. Additional thunderstorms may develop along/east of the dryline extending southward into central TX. Any convection that can initiate may pose an isolated threat for large hail and strong to locally damaging winds as it continues eastward through Monday night. The Marginal Risk has been expanded westward into parts of central TX to account for the possibility of isolated initiation along the dryline. But, confidence in a corridor of greater severe potential remains too low to include higher severe hail probabilities across this region. ...Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley and Midwest... Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing Monday morning across parts of IA and vicinity, associated with a northeastward-ejecting shortwave trough embedded within the larger upper troughing present over the northern/central Plains. This activity is expected to remain elevated as it continues northeastward across the Upper Midwest through the day. At the surface, a weak low is forecast to develop northeastward from the central Plains to the Midwest along a southeastward-advancing cold front. Modest low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, should advance northeastward through the period ahead of the front. Even with the quality of the low-level moisture remaining limited, somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates should aid in at least weak MUCAPE developing by Monday evening. While the stronger mid/upper-level southwesterly flow will likely remain displaced to the cool side of the front, sufficient deep-layer shear to support updraft organization should be present over the warm sector extending from the Ozarks into the mid MS Valley/Midwest. Most guidance shows a convective precipitation signal along the front beginning Monday evening and continuing through early Tuesday morning. Isolated severe hail may occur with any of the stronger cells that can develop and remain at least semi-discrete. Occasional strong/gusty winds may also occur, even though low-level stability from nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer may mostly hinder convective downdrafts from reaching the surface. ..Gleason.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINES ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida during the afternoon and early evening. Isolated hail is expected to be the primary threat, though locally gusty winds may also occur. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough will persist over the western CONUS through the period, as a strong embedded shortwave moves from the central High Plains toward the upper Great Lakes region. A surface low attendant to this shortwave will move northward across the Dakotas and Minnesota, with secondary cyclogenesis expected over the central High Plains during the afternoon/evening. Farther east, a weak upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across parts of the Southeast, to the south of a building upper ridge across the Mid Atlantic/Northeast. ...Florida... Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) will likely develop during the afternoon across much of the FL Peninsula, resulting from seasonably strong diurnal heating of a relatively moist low-level environment. Diminishing MLCINH will support scattered thunderstorm development, especially in association with sea-breeze circulations and possibly near any other boundaries left over from overnight/early-morning convection. Very weak low-level flow and only modest deep-layer flow/shear will tend to limit storm organization and longevity, but storm interactions and locally enhanced shear near the sea breezes could yield a couple stronger multicells and perhaps a marginal supercell. With relatively cold temperatures aloft (-13C to -16C at 500 mb) associated with the upper trough, the strongest storms could pose an isolated hail threat. Locally gusty winds will also be possible, though the severe-wind threat appears relatively limited due to very weak low-level flow and limited potential for organized upscale growth. ..Dean/Weinman.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINES ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida during the afternoon and early evening. Isolated hail is expected to be the primary threat, though locally gusty winds may also occur. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough will persist over the western CONUS through the period, as a strong embedded shortwave moves from the central High Plains toward the upper Great Lakes region. A surface low attendant to this shortwave will move northward across the Dakotas and Minnesota, with secondary cyclogenesis expected over the central High Plains during the afternoon/evening. Farther east, a weak upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across parts of the Southeast, to the south of a building upper ridge across the Mid Atlantic/Northeast. ...Florida... Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) will likely develop during the afternoon across much of the FL Peninsula, resulting from seasonably strong diurnal heating of a relatively moist low-level environment. Diminishing MLCINH will support scattered thunderstorm development, especially in association with sea-breeze circulations and possibly near any other boundaries left over from overnight/early-morning convection. Very weak low-level flow and only modest deep-layer flow/shear will tend to limit storm organization and longevity, but storm interactions and locally enhanced shear near the sea breezes could yield a couple stronger multicells and perhaps a marginal supercell. With relatively cold temperatures aloft (-13C to -16C at 500 mb) associated with the upper trough, the strongest storms could pose an isolated hail threat. Locally gusty winds will also be possible, though the severe-wind threat appears relatively limited due to very weak low-level flow and limited potential for organized upscale growth. ..Dean/Weinman.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINES ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida during the afternoon and early evening. Isolated hail is expected to be the primary threat, though locally gusty winds may also occur. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough will persist over the western CONUS through the period, as a strong embedded shortwave moves from the central High Plains toward the upper Great Lakes region. A surface low attendant to this shortwave will move northward across the Dakotas and Minnesota, with secondary cyclogenesis expected over the central High Plains during the afternoon/evening. Farther east, a weak upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across parts of the Southeast, to the south of a building upper ridge across the Mid Atlantic/Northeast. ...Florida... Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) will likely develop during the afternoon across much of the FL Peninsula, resulting from seasonably strong diurnal heating of a relatively moist low-level environment. Diminishing MLCINH will support scattered thunderstorm development, especially in association with sea-breeze circulations and possibly near any other boundaries left over from overnight/early-morning convection. Very weak low-level flow and only modest deep-layer flow/shear will tend to limit storm organization and longevity, but storm interactions and locally enhanced shear near the sea breezes could yield a couple stronger multicells and perhaps a marginal supercell. With relatively cold temperatures aloft (-13C to -16C at 500 mb) associated with the upper trough, the strongest storms could pose an isolated hail threat. Locally gusty winds will also be possible, though the severe-wind threat appears relatively limited due to very weak low-level flow and limited potential for organized upscale growth. ..Dean/Weinman.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINES ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida during the afternoon and early evening. Isolated hail is expected to be the primary threat, though locally gusty winds may also occur. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough will persist over the western CONUS through the period, as a strong embedded shortwave moves from the central High Plains toward the upper Great Lakes region. A surface low attendant to this shortwave will move northward across the Dakotas and Minnesota, with secondary cyclogenesis expected over the central High Plains during the afternoon/evening. Farther east, a weak upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across parts of the Southeast, to the south of a building upper ridge across the Mid Atlantic/Northeast. ...Florida... Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) will likely develop during the afternoon across much of the FL Peninsula, resulting from seasonably strong diurnal heating of a relatively moist low-level environment. Diminishing MLCINH will support scattered thunderstorm development, especially in association with sea-breeze circulations and possibly near any other boundaries left over from overnight/early-morning convection. Very weak low-level flow and only modest deep-layer flow/shear will tend to limit storm organization and longevity, but storm interactions and locally enhanced shear near the sea breezes could yield a couple stronger multicells and perhaps a marginal supercell. With relatively cold temperatures aloft (-13C to -16C at 500 mb) associated with the upper trough, the strongest storms could pose an isolated hail threat. Locally gusty winds will also be possible, though the severe-wind threat appears relatively limited due to very weak low-level flow and limited potential for organized upscale growth. ..Dean/Weinman.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINES ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida during the afternoon and early evening. Isolated hail is expected to be the primary threat, though locally gusty winds may also occur. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough will persist over the western CONUS through the period, as a strong embedded shortwave moves from the central High Plains toward the upper Great Lakes region. A surface low attendant to this shortwave will move northward across the Dakotas and Minnesota, with secondary cyclogenesis expected over the central High Plains during the afternoon/evening. Farther east, a weak upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across parts of the Southeast, to the south of a building upper ridge across the Mid Atlantic/Northeast. ...Florida... Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) will likely develop during the afternoon across much of the FL Peninsula, resulting from seasonably strong diurnal heating of a relatively moist low-level environment. Diminishing MLCINH will support scattered thunderstorm development, especially in association with sea-breeze circulations and possibly near any other boundaries left over from overnight/early-morning convection. Very weak low-level flow and only modest deep-layer flow/shear will tend to limit storm organization and longevity, but storm interactions and locally enhanced shear near the sea breezes could yield a couple stronger multicells and perhaps a marginal supercell. With relatively cold temperatures aloft (-13C to -16C at 500 mb) associated with the upper trough, the strongest storms could pose an isolated hail threat. Locally gusty winds will also be possible, though the severe-wind threat appears relatively limited due to very weak low-level flow and limited potential for organized upscale growth. ..Dean/Weinman.. 03/03/2024 Read more

MD 0184 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL SIERRA NEVADA
Mesoscale Discussion 0184 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Areas affected...portions of the higher terrain of the central Sierra Nevada Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 022116Z - 030215Z SUMMARY...A gradual increase in heavy snowfall rates is anticipated heading into the late afternoon/evening hours within the higher terrain of the central Sierra Nevada range in California. Snowfall rates of 2-3 inches/hour appear possible. DISCUSSION...Surface observations and regional radar composites have recently shown a temporary lull in precipitation/snowfall rates along the higher terrain of the Sierra Nevada over the past hour. However, recent RAP upper air analyses and GOES water-vapor imagery indicate that the nose of a 100+ knot mid-level jet is beginning to push into central CA. Broadscale ascent within the left-exit region of this wave, combined with an increase in orographic ascent along the Sierra Nevada owing to strengthening mid-level winds, should promote a gradual uptick in precipitation across central CA late this afternoon into the evening hours. Recent high-res guidance indicates multiple rounds of heavier precipitation bands moving into the region during the 23-03 UTC time frame as ascent increases. Both deterministic and probabilistic guidance suggest that the potential for snowfall rates between 2-3 inches/hour will increase during this period for higher elevations (generally above 5 kft) where temperatures are below freezing. ..Moore.. 03/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...VEF...REV...HNX...STO... LAT...LON 36741877 37071933 38652051 38872057 39072040 39112017 38952003 38631982 38221940 37911914 37651895 37481864 37341848 37171837 36971833 36771829 36681841 36661854 36741877 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely for the rest of tonight. ...Synopsis... Convection with sporadic lightning flashes is ongoing early this evening from parts of MT/WY into UT and western CO, though this convection is generally less organized than the frontal convection that produced severe gusts earlier today. While gusty winds remain possible with storms this evening, diminishing instability should tend to limit any organized severe risk. Elsewhere, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will remain possible this evening from south GA into FL, where locally moderate instability persists, but deep-layer shear is generally rather weak. Storms have been subsevere across this region thus far, and no appreciable increase in the severe risk is currently anticipated. For the Pacific Northwest into parts of CA, low-topped convection with sporadic lightning flashes will continue this evening, aided by cold temperatures aloft. ..Dean.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely for the rest of tonight. ...Synopsis... Convection with sporadic lightning flashes is ongoing early this evening from parts of MT/WY into UT and western CO, though this convection is generally less organized than the frontal convection that produced severe gusts earlier today. While gusty winds remain possible with storms this evening, diminishing instability should tend to limit any organized severe risk. Elsewhere, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will remain possible this evening from south GA into FL, where locally moderate instability persists, but deep-layer shear is generally rather weak. Storms have been subsevere across this region thus far, and no appreciable increase in the severe risk is currently anticipated. For the Pacific Northwest into parts of CA, low-topped convection with sporadic lightning flashes will continue this evening, aided by cold temperatures aloft. ..Dean.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely for the rest of tonight. ...Synopsis... Convection with sporadic lightning flashes is ongoing early this evening from parts of MT/WY into UT and western CO, though this convection is generally less organized than the frontal convection that produced severe gusts earlier today. While gusty winds remain possible with storms this evening, diminishing instability should tend to limit any organized severe risk. Elsewhere, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will remain possible this evening from south GA into FL, where locally moderate instability persists, but deep-layer shear is generally rather weak. Storms have been subsevere across this region thus far, and no appreciable increase in the severe risk is currently anticipated. For the Pacific Northwest into parts of CA, low-topped convection with sporadic lightning flashes will continue this evening, aided by cold temperatures aloft. ..Dean.. 03/03/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Mar 2 22:22:01 UTC 2024.

MD 0184 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL SIERRA NEVADA
Mesoscale Discussion 0184 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Areas affected...portions of the higher terrain of the central Sierra Nevada Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 022116Z - 030215Z SUMMARY...A gradual increase in heavy snowfall rates is anticipated heading into the late afternoon/evening hours within the higher terrain of the central Sierra Nevada range in California. Snowfall rates of 2-3 inches/hour appear possible. DISCUSSION...Surface observations and regional radar composites have recently shown a temporary lull in precipitation/snowfall rates along the higher terrain of the Sierra Nevada over the past hour. However, recent RAP upper air analyses and GOES water-vapor imagery indicate that the nose of a 100+ knot mid-level jet is beginning to push into central CA. Broadscale ascent within the left-exit region of this wave, combined with an increase in orographic ascent along the Sierra Nevada owing to strengthening mid-level winds, should promote a gradual uptick in precipitation across central CA late this afternoon into the evening hours. Recent high-res guidance indicates multiple rounds of heavier precipitation bands moving into the region during the 23-03 UTC time frame as ascent increases. Both deterministic and probabilistic guidance suggest that the potential for snowfall rates between 2-3 inches/hour will increase during this period for higher elevations (generally above 5 kft) where temperatures are below freezing. ..Moore.. 03/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...VEF...REV...HNX...STO... LAT...LON 36741877 37071933 38652051 38872057 39072040 39112017 38952003 38631982 38221940 37911914 37651895 37481864 37341848 37171837 36971833 36771829 36681841 36661854 36741877 Read more