Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper trough should move quickly eastward across FL and the East Coast up to the Mid-Atlantic on Day 4/Wednesday. While sufficient moisture to support thunderstorms will likely be in place to support thunderstorms across these areas, limited instability should tend to keep any severe threat fairly isolated/marginal. Attention then turns to another upper trough/low that is forecast to advance from the eastern Pacific across the Southwest and southern Plains from the middle to latter portion of the upcoming week. Lee cyclogenesis is expected to occur ahead of this feature across the southern High Plains, and corresponding low-level mass response should encourage low-level moisture to advance northward across parts of OK/TX into the lower MS Valley and Southeast. Severe potential may gradually increase across parts of OK/TX around Day 5/Thursday, as sufficient shear and instability should be present to support some risk for organized convection. This severe threat will probably continue into Day 6/Friday across parts of central/east TX into the lower MS Valley as the upper trough ejects eastward over these areas. By Day 7/Saturday, uncertainty increases regarding the evolution of the upper trough, as well as potential for convection to outpace the low-level moisture return and related warm sector. But, some severe threat may persist across parts of the Southeast ahead of an advancing cold front. While confidence is not high enough to include 15% severe areas for Thursday (OK/TX), Friday (southern Plains into lower MS Valley), and/or Saturday (Southeast) at this time, deterministic and ensemble model trends will be closely monitored for signs of increasing severe potential with this ejecting upper trough. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper trough should move quickly eastward across FL and the East Coast up to the Mid-Atlantic on Day 4/Wednesday. While sufficient moisture to support thunderstorms will likely be in place to support thunderstorms across these areas, limited instability should tend to keep any severe threat fairly isolated/marginal. Attention then turns to another upper trough/low that is forecast to advance from the eastern Pacific across the Southwest and southern Plains from the middle to latter portion of the upcoming week. Lee cyclogenesis is expected to occur ahead of this feature across the southern High Plains, and corresponding low-level mass response should encourage low-level moisture to advance northward across parts of OK/TX into the lower MS Valley and Southeast. Severe potential may gradually increase across parts of OK/TX around Day 5/Thursday, as sufficient shear and instability should be present to support some risk for organized convection. This severe threat will probably continue into Day 6/Friday across parts of central/east TX into the lower MS Valley as the upper trough ejects eastward over these areas. By Day 7/Saturday, uncertainty increases regarding the evolution of the upper trough, as well as potential for convection to outpace the low-level moisture return and related warm sector. But, some severe threat may persist across parts of the Southeast ahead of an advancing cold front. While confidence is not high enough to include 15% severe areas for Thursday (OK/TX), Friday (southern Plains into lower MS Valley), and/or Saturday (Southeast) at this time, deterministic and ensemble model trends will be closely monitored for signs of increasing severe potential with this ejecting upper trough. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper trough should move quickly eastward across FL and the East Coast up to the Mid-Atlantic on Day 4/Wednesday. While sufficient moisture to support thunderstorms will likely be in place to support thunderstorms across these areas, limited instability should tend to keep any severe threat fairly isolated/marginal. Attention then turns to another upper trough/low that is forecast to advance from the eastern Pacific across the Southwest and southern Plains from the middle to latter portion of the upcoming week. Lee cyclogenesis is expected to occur ahead of this feature across the southern High Plains, and corresponding low-level mass response should encourage low-level moisture to advance northward across parts of OK/TX into the lower MS Valley and Southeast. Severe potential may gradually increase across parts of OK/TX around Day 5/Thursday, as sufficient shear and instability should be present to support some risk for organized convection. This severe threat will probably continue into Day 6/Friday across parts of central/east TX into the lower MS Valley as the upper trough ejects eastward over these areas. By Day 7/Saturday, uncertainty increases regarding the evolution of the upper trough, as well as potential for convection to outpace the low-level moisture return and related warm sector. But, some severe threat may persist across parts of the Southeast ahead of an advancing cold front. While confidence is not high enough to include 15% severe areas for Thursday (OK/TX), Friday (southern Plains into lower MS Valley), and/or Saturday (Southeast) at this time, deterministic and ensemble model trends will be closely monitored for signs of increasing severe potential with this ejecting upper trough. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible mainly Tuesday morning across parts of east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms will probably be ongoing at the start of the period Tuesday morning from parts of east TX into the lower MS Valley. Some of this activity could be strong to locally severe, as a moist and modestly unstable airmass will be in place across this region. A low-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward across the Southeast and away from the lower MS Valley through the day. Corresponding deep-layer shear should gradually weaken through Tuesday afternoon as the related mid-level flow likewise lessens. Still, there should be sufficient shear for at least modest updraft organization with any ongoing convection Tuesday morning. Occasional strong to damaging winds and perhaps isolated severe hail may occur with more robust updrafts, before convection either weakens or moves offshore. The potential for additional robust thunderstorm development in the wake of the morning activity appears highly uncertain/conditional. But, some guidance suggests that the airmass will attempt to recover along/east of a dryline across east TX into the ArkLaTex vicinity. Regardless, large-scale subsidence behind the shortwave trough should tend to hinder additional development both along the dryline and with a slowly southeastward-moving cold front. ..Gleason.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible mainly Tuesday morning across parts of east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms will probably be ongoing at the start of the period Tuesday morning from parts of east TX into the lower MS Valley. Some of this activity could be strong to locally severe, as a moist and modestly unstable airmass will be in place across this region. A low-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward across the Southeast and away from the lower MS Valley through the day. Corresponding deep-layer shear should gradually weaken through Tuesday afternoon as the related mid-level flow likewise lessens. Still, there should be sufficient shear for at least modest updraft organization with any ongoing convection Tuesday morning. Occasional strong to damaging winds and perhaps isolated severe hail may occur with more robust updrafts, before convection either weakens or moves offshore. The potential for additional robust thunderstorm development in the wake of the morning activity appears highly uncertain/conditional. But, some guidance suggests that the airmass will attempt to recover along/east of a dryline across east TX into the ArkLaTex vicinity. Regardless, large-scale subsidence behind the shortwave trough should tend to hinder additional development both along the dryline and with a slowly southeastward-moving cold front. ..Gleason.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible mainly Tuesday morning across parts of east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms will probably be ongoing at the start of the period Tuesday morning from parts of east TX into the lower MS Valley. Some of this activity could be strong to locally severe, as a moist and modestly unstable airmass will be in place across this region. A low-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward across the Southeast and away from the lower MS Valley through the day. Corresponding deep-layer shear should gradually weaken through Tuesday afternoon as the related mid-level flow likewise lessens. Still, there should be sufficient shear for at least modest updraft organization with any ongoing convection Tuesday morning. Occasional strong to damaging winds and perhaps isolated severe hail may occur with more robust updrafts, before convection either weakens or moves offshore. The potential for additional robust thunderstorm development in the wake of the morning activity appears highly uncertain/conditional. But, some guidance suggests that the airmass will attempt to recover along/east of a dryline across east TX into the ArkLaTex vicinity. Regardless, large-scale subsidence behind the shortwave trough should tend to hinder additional development both along the dryline and with a slowly southeastward-moving cold front. ..Gleason.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible mainly Tuesday morning across parts of east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms will probably be ongoing at the start of the period Tuesday morning from parts of east TX into the lower MS Valley. Some of this activity could be strong to locally severe, as a moist and modestly unstable airmass will be in place across this region. A low-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward across the Southeast and away from the lower MS Valley through the day. Corresponding deep-layer shear should gradually weaken through Tuesday afternoon as the related mid-level flow likewise lessens. Still, there should be sufficient shear for at least modest updraft organization with any ongoing convection Tuesday morning. Occasional strong to damaging winds and perhaps isolated severe hail may occur with more robust updrafts, before convection either weakens or moves offshore. The potential for additional robust thunderstorm development in the wake of the morning activity appears highly uncertain/conditional. But, some guidance suggests that the airmass will attempt to recover along/east of a dryline across east TX into the ArkLaTex vicinity. Regardless, large-scale subsidence behind the shortwave trough should tend to hinder additional development both along the dryline and with a slowly southeastward-moving cold front. ..Gleason.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible mainly Tuesday morning across parts of east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms will probably be ongoing at the start of the period Tuesday morning from parts of east TX into the lower MS Valley. Some of this activity could be strong to locally severe, as a moist and modestly unstable airmass will be in place across this region. A low-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward across the Southeast and away from the lower MS Valley through the day. Corresponding deep-layer shear should gradually weaken through Tuesday afternoon as the related mid-level flow likewise lessens. Still, there should be sufficient shear for at least modest updraft organization with any ongoing convection Tuesday morning. Occasional strong to damaging winds and perhaps isolated severe hail may occur with more robust updrafts, before convection either weakens or moves offshore. The potential for additional robust thunderstorm development in the wake of the morning activity appears highly uncertain/conditional. But, some guidance suggests that the airmass will attempt to recover along/east of a dryline across east TX into the ArkLaTex vicinity. Regardless, large-scale subsidence behind the shortwave trough should tend to hinder additional development both along the dryline and with a slowly southeastward-moving cold front. ..Gleason.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible mainly Tuesday morning across parts of east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple clusters of thunderstorms will probably be ongoing at the start of the period Tuesday morning from parts of east TX into the lower MS Valley. Some of this activity could be strong to locally severe, as a moist and modestly unstable airmass will be in place across this region. A low-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward across the Southeast and away from the lower MS Valley through the day. Corresponding deep-layer shear should gradually weaken through Tuesday afternoon as the related mid-level flow likewise lessens. Still, there should be sufficient shear for at least modest updraft organization with any ongoing convection Tuesday morning. Occasional strong to damaging winds and perhaps isolated severe hail may occur with more robust updrafts, before convection either weakens or moves offshore. The potential for additional robust thunderstorm development in the wake of the morning activity appears highly uncertain/conditional. But, some guidance suggests that the airmass will attempt to recover along/east of a dryline across east TX into the ArkLaTex vicinity. Regardless, large-scale subsidence behind the shortwave trough should tend to hinder additional development both along the dryline and with a slowly southeastward-moving cold front. ..Gleason.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Midlevel westerly flow will gradually weaken across the central/southern Plains on D2/Monday, while a weak surface cyclone departs the region. On the backside of this feature, locally dry/breezy post-frontal conditions are expected across portions of KS during the afternoon, yielding a brief period of elevated fire-weather conditions. However, current indications are that these conditions will be too brief/marginal for Elevated highlights. Farther south, a weak/remnant lee cyclone over the central High Plains will encourage breezy westerly surface winds amid marginally low RH across portions of the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Similarly, any elevated fire-weather conditions should remain too localized/marginal for Elevated highlights. ..Weinman.. 03/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Midlevel westerly flow will gradually weaken across the central/southern Plains on D2/Monday, while a weak surface cyclone departs the region. On the backside of this feature, locally dry/breezy post-frontal conditions are expected across portions of KS during the afternoon, yielding a brief period of elevated fire-weather conditions. However, current indications are that these conditions will be too brief/marginal for Elevated highlights. Farther south, a weak/remnant lee cyclone over the central High Plains will encourage breezy westerly surface winds amid marginally low RH across portions of the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Similarly, any elevated fire-weather conditions should remain too localized/marginal for Elevated highlights. ..Weinman.. 03/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Midlevel westerly flow will gradually weaken across the central/southern Plains on D2/Monday, while a weak surface cyclone departs the region. On the backside of this feature, locally dry/breezy post-frontal conditions are expected across portions of KS during the afternoon, yielding a brief period of elevated fire-weather conditions. However, current indications are that these conditions will be too brief/marginal for Elevated highlights. Farther south, a weak/remnant lee cyclone over the central High Plains will encourage breezy westerly surface winds amid marginally low RH across portions of the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Similarly, any elevated fire-weather conditions should remain too localized/marginal for Elevated highlights. ..Weinman.. 03/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Midlevel westerly flow will gradually weaken across the central/southern Plains on D2/Monday, while a weak surface cyclone departs the region. On the backside of this feature, locally dry/breezy post-frontal conditions are expected across portions of KS during the afternoon, yielding a brief period of elevated fire-weather conditions. However, current indications are that these conditions will be too brief/marginal for Elevated highlights. Farther south, a weak/remnant lee cyclone over the central High Plains will encourage breezy westerly surface winds amid marginally low RH across portions of the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Similarly, any elevated fire-weather conditions should remain too localized/marginal for Elevated highlights. ..Weinman.. 03/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A belt of strong west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the Rockies and adjacent Plains, while an embedded shortwave trough and attendant surface cyclone lift northeastward across the northern Plains. At the same time, the core of the strongest flow aloft will overspread the central Rockies, encouraging secondary/lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO into western KS. In response to these developments, a tight surface pressure gradient will develop across much of the Great Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley, where seasonably warm, dry, and windy conditions will favor widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern High Plains... Along/south of the deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (higher along the I-25 corridor) will develop across much of the southern High Plains in response to the tightening surface pressure gradient. In addition, deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will support gusts upwards of 30-40 mph over the Plains, and 50-60 mph gusts along the higher terrain/I-25 corridor. These strong/gusty surface winds, coupled with 10-15 percent minimum RH (aided by the strong downsloping), will yield critical fire-weather conditions given dry fuels across the region. While a slight minimum in sustained surface winds is possible over the TX South Plains (owing to terrain influences), breezy/gusty winds amid single-digit RH should still support near-critical to critical conditions. For the northern Plains, the strongest westerly surface winds will generally remain to the north of the lowest RH (where cooler surface temperatures are expected). However, high-end elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are still expected given 25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). Similarly, 20-25 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop across the Mid/Upper MS Valley -- along the eastern periphery of the lowest RH. Despite the slightly higher RH here, high-end elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are still expected owing to the strong/gusty surface winds atop increasingly receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 03/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A belt of strong west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the Rockies and adjacent Plains, while an embedded shortwave trough and attendant surface cyclone lift northeastward across the northern Plains. At the same time, the core of the strongest flow aloft will overspread the central Rockies, encouraging secondary/lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO into western KS. In response to these developments, a tight surface pressure gradient will develop across much of the Great Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley, where seasonably warm, dry, and windy conditions will favor widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern High Plains... Along/south of the deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (higher along the I-25 corridor) will develop across much of the southern High Plains in response to the tightening surface pressure gradient. In addition, deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will support gusts upwards of 30-40 mph over the Plains, and 50-60 mph gusts along the higher terrain/I-25 corridor. These strong/gusty surface winds, coupled with 10-15 percent minimum RH (aided by the strong downsloping), will yield critical fire-weather conditions given dry fuels across the region. While a slight minimum in sustained surface winds is possible over the TX South Plains (owing to terrain influences), breezy/gusty winds amid single-digit RH should still support near-critical to critical conditions. For the northern Plains, the strongest westerly surface winds will generally remain to the north of the lowest RH (where cooler surface temperatures are expected). However, high-end elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are still expected given 25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). Similarly, 20-25 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop across the Mid/Upper MS Valley -- along the eastern periphery of the lowest RH. Despite the slightly higher RH here, high-end elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are still expected owing to the strong/gusty surface winds atop increasingly receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 03/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A belt of strong west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the Rockies and adjacent Plains, while an embedded shortwave trough and attendant surface cyclone lift northeastward across the northern Plains. At the same time, the core of the strongest flow aloft will overspread the central Rockies, encouraging secondary/lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO into western KS. In response to these developments, a tight surface pressure gradient will develop across much of the Great Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley, where seasonably warm, dry, and windy conditions will favor widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern High Plains... Along/south of the deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (higher along the I-25 corridor) will develop across much of the southern High Plains in response to the tightening surface pressure gradient. In addition, deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will support gusts upwards of 30-40 mph over the Plains, and 50-60 mph gusts along the higher terrain/I-25 corridor. These strong/gusty surface winds, coupled with 10-15 percent minimum RH (aided by the strong downsloping), will yield critical fire-weather conditions given dry fuels across the region. While a slight minimum in sustained surface winds is possible over the TX South Plains (owing to terrain influences), breezy/gusty winds amid single-digit RH should still support near-critical to critical conditions. For the northern Plains, the strongest westerly surface winds will generally remain to the north of the lowest RH (where cooler surface temperatures are expected). However, high-end elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are still expected given 25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). Similarly, 20-25 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop across the Mid/Upper MS Valley -- along the eastern periphery of the lowest RH. Despite the slightly higher RH here, high-end elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are still expected owing to the strong/gusty surface winds atop increasingly receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 03/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A belt of strong west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the Rockies and adjacent Plains, while an embedded shortwave trough and attendant surface cyclone lift northeastward across the northern Plains. At the same time, the core of the strongest flow aloft will overspread the central Rockies, encouraging secondary/lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO into western KS. In response to these developments, a tight surface pressure gradient will develop across much of the Great Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley, where seasonably warm, dry, and windy conditions will favor widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern High Plains... Along/south of the deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (higher along the I-25 corridor) will develop across much of the southern High Plains in response to the tightening surface pressure gradient. In addition, deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will support gusts upwards of 30-40 mph over the Plains, and 50-60 mph gusts along the higher terrain/I-25 corridor. These strong/gusty surface winds, coupled with 10-15 percent minimum RH (aided by the strong downsloping), will yield critical fire-weather conditions given dry fuels across the region. While a slight minimum in sustained surface winds is possible over the TX South Plains (owing to terrain influences), breezy/gusty winds amid single-digit RH should still support near-critical to critical conditions. For the northern Plains, the strongest westerly surface winds will generally remain to the north of the lowest RH (where cooler surface temperatures are expected). However, high-end elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are still expected given 25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). Similarly, 20-25 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop across the Mid/Upper MS Valley -- along the eastern periphery of the lowest RH. Despite the slightly higher RH here, high-end elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are still expected owing to the strong/gusty surface winds atop increasingly receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 03/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A belt of strong west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the Rockies and adjacent Plains, while an embedded shortwave trough and attendant surface cyclone lift northeastward across the northern Plains. At the same time, the core of the strongest flow aloft will overspread the central Rockies, encouraging secondary/lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO into western KS. In response to these developments, a tight surface pressure gradient will develop across much of the Great Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley, where seasonably warm, dry, and windy conditions will favor widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern High Plains... Along/south of the deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (higher along the I-25 corridor) will develop across much of the southern High Plains in response to the tightening surface pressure gradient. In addition, deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will support gusts upwards of 30-40 mph over the Plains, and 50-60 mph gusts along the higher terrain/I-25 corridor. These strong/gusty surface winds, coupled with 10-15 percent minimum RH (aided by the strong downsloping), will yield critical fire-weather conditions given dry fuels across the region. While a slight minimum in sustained surface winds is possible over the TX South Plains (owing to terrain influences), breezy/gusty winds amid single-digit RH should still support near-critical to critical conditions. For the northern Plains, the strongest westerly surface winds will generally remain to the north of the lowest RH (where cooler surface temperatures are expected). However, high-end elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are still expected given 25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). Similarly, 20-25 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop across the Mid/Upper MS Valley -- along the eastern periphery of the lowest RH. Despite the slightly higher RH here, high-end elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are still expected owing to the strong/gusty surface winds atop increasingly receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 03/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday through Monday night from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail should be the main threat, but occasional strong/gusty winds may also occur. ...Synopsis... A split flow upper pattern will persist on Monday across the CONUS, with a southern-stream upper jet extending across northern Mexico and parts of the southern Plains through the day. Farther north, broad upper troughing will remain over much of the northwestern states into the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. A subtle mid-level shortwave trough moving eastward across TX and the lower MS Valley may encourage convective development through the period, while thunderstorm initiation from the Ozarks into the mid MS Valley/Midwest may be tied more to a southeastward-moving cold front Monday evening through early Tuesday morning. ...Central Texas into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley... A moist low-level airmass will be present along/east of a surface dryline across central TX Monday afternoon. The presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and diurnal heating of the moist airmass will support the development of weak to moderate instability from parts of central/east TX into the lower MS Valley/Mid-South. While mid-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong, it should still be enough to foster some updraft organization with around 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear. The main uncertainty is convective initiation through the day, as a lingering cap and generally weak forcing associated with the ejecting mid-level shortwave trough may keep overall thunderstorm coverage fairly isolated. Still, some guidance suggests that convection will gradually increase in intensity and coverage through Monday evening in a modest low-level warm advection regime. Additional thunderstorms may develop along/east of the dryline extending southward into central TX. Any convection that can initiate may pose an isolated threat for large hail and strong to locally damaging winds as it continues eastward through Monday night. The Marginal Risk has been expanded westward into parts of central TX to account for the possibility of isolated initiation along the dryline. But, confidence in a corridor of greater severe potential remains too low to include higher severe hail probabilities across this region. ...Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley and Midwest... Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing Monday morning across parts of IA and vicinity, associated with a northeastward-ejecting shortwave trough embedded within the larger upper troughing present over the northern/central Plains. This activity is expected to remain elevated as it continues northeastward across the Upper Midwest through the day. At the surface, a weak low is forecast to develop northeastward from the central Plains to the Midwest along a southeastward-advancing cold front. Modest low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, should advance northeastward through the period ahead of the front. Even with the quality of the low-level moisture remaining limited, somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates should aid in at least weak MUCAPE developing by Monday evening. While the stronger mid/upper-level southwesterly flow will likely remain displaced to the cool side of the front, sufficient deep-layer shear to support updraft organization should be present over the warm sector extending from the Ozarks into the mid MS Valley/Midwest. Most guidance shows a convective precipitation signal along the front beginning Monday evening and continuing through early Tuesday morning. Isolated severe hail may occur with any of the stronger cells that can develop and remain at least semi-discrete. Occasional strong/gusty winds may also occur, even though low-level stability from nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer may mostly hinder convective downdrafts from reaching the surface. ..Gleason.. 03/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday through Monday night from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail should be the main threat, but occasional strong/gusty winds may also occur. ...Synopsis... A split flow upper pattern will persist on Monday across the CONUS, with a southern-stream upper jet extending across northern Mexico and parts of the southern Plains through the day. Farther north, broad upper troughing will remain over much of the northwestern states into the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. A subtle mid-level shortwave trough moving eastward across TX and the lower MS Valley may encourage convective development through the period, while thunderstorm initiation from the Ozarks into the mid MS Valley/Midwest may be tied more to a southeastward-moving cold front Monday evening through early Tuesday morning. ...Central Texas into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley... A moist low-level airmass will be present along/east of a surface dryline across central TX Monday afternoon. The presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and diurnal heating of the moist airmass will support the development of weak to moderate instability from parts of central/east TX into the lower MS Valley/Mid-South. While mid-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong, it should still be enough to foster some updraft organization with around 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear. The main uncertainty is convective initiation through the day, as a lingering cap and generally weak forcing associated with the ejecting mid-level shortwave trough may keep overall thunderstorm coverage fairly isolated. Still, some guidance suggests that convection will gradually increase in intensity and coverage through Monday evening in a modest low-level warm advection regime. Additional thunderstorms may develop along/east of the dryline extending southward into central TX. Any convection that can initiate may pose an isolated threat for large hail and strong to locally damaging winds as it continues eastward through Monday night. The Marginal Risk has been expanded westward into parts of central TX to account for the possibility of isolated initiation along the dryline. But, confidence in a corridor of greater severe potential remains too low to include higher severe hail probabilities across this region. ...Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley and Midwest... Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing Monday morning across parts of IA and vicinity, associated with a northeastward-ejecting shortwave trough embedded within the larger upper troughing present over the northern/central Plains. This activity is expected to remain elevated as it continues northeastward across the Upper Midwest through the day. At the surface, a weak low is forecast to develop northeastward from the central Plains to the Midwest along a southeastward-advancing cold front. Modest low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, should advance northeastward through the period ahead of the front. Even with the quality of the low-level moisture remaining limited, somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates should aid in at least weak MUCAPE developing by Monday evening. While the stronger mid/upper-level southwesterly flow will likely remain displaced to the cool side of the front, sufficient deep-layer shear to support updraft organization should be present over the warm sector extending from the Ozarks into the mid MS Valley/Midwest. Most guidance shows a convective precipitation signal along the front beginning Monday evening and continuing through early Tuesday morning. Isolated severe hail may occur with any of the stronger cells that can develop and remain at least semi-discrete. Occasional strong/gusty winds may also occur, even though low-level stability from nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer may mostly hinder convective downdrafts from reaching the surface. ..Gleason.. 03/03/2024 Read more