Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large negative-tilt upper trough will quickly move across the Northeast today, with upper riding over the northern Plains. Meanwhile, a southern-stream shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains during the day, likely losing amplitude as it moves across the lower MS Valley overnight. To the west, substantial cooling aloft will occur over the Pacific Northwest as a strong midlevel jet noses into northern CA. In advance of the southern Plains trough, a cool air mass will exist at the surface due to a strong surface high over land, and poor trajectories over the Gulf of Mexico initially. Low-level winds will veer to southerly overnight however, and robust moisture will return northward across the Gulf of Mexico. Through 12Z Friday, it appears only elevated instability will be present over land, with scattered showers and thunderstorms most likely tonight from eastern TX into LA. Poor midlevel lapse rates will preclude any severe hail threat. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 02/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large negative-tilt upper trough will quickly move across the Northeast today, with upper riding over the northern Plains. Meanwhile, a southern-stream shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains during the day, likely losing amplitude as it moves across the lower MS Valley overnight. To the west, substantial cooling aloft will occur over the Pacific Northwest as a strong midlevel jet noses into northern CA. In advance of the southern Plains trough, a cool air mass will exist at the surface due to a strong surface high over land, and poor trajectories over the Gulf of Mexico initially. Low-level winds will veer to southerly overnight however, and robust moisture will return northward across the Gulf of Mexico. Through 12Z Friday, it appears only elevated instability will be present over land, with scattered showers and thunderstorms most likely tonight from eastern TX into LA. Poor midlevel lapse rates will preclude any severe hail threat. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 02/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The threat of severe wind gusts appears negligible through tonight. ...East Coast... A cold front will continue to move rapidly eastward into New England, and across the remainder of the eastern Carolinas this evening, beneath the deep and progressive upper trough. A line of shallow convection persists this evening along parts of the front, most notably from SC into southeast VA. 00Z soundings from the region indicate little or no instability, and very little lightning has been observed with this activity. Gusty winds may still occur with low-topped convection along the front over the next few hours before moving offshore, but the threat of 50 kt wind gusts has likely ended with the loss of heating. ..Jewell.. 02/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The threat of severe wind gusts appears negligible through tonight. ...East Coast... A cold front will continue to move rapidly eastward into New England, and across the remainder of the eastern Carolinas this evening, beneath the deep and progressive upper trough. A line of shallow convection persists this evening along parts of the front, most notably from SC into southeast VA. 00Z soundings from the region indicate little or no instability, and very little lightning has been observed with this activity. Gusty winds may still occur with low-topped convection along the front over the next few hours before moving offshore, but the threat of 50 kt wind gusts has likely ended with the loss of heating. ..Jewell.. 02/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The threat of severe wind gusts appears negligible through tonight. ...East Coast... A cold front will continue to move rapidly eastward into New England, and across the remainder of the eastern Carolinas this evening, beneath the deep and progressive upper trough. A line of shallow convection persists this evening along parts of the front, most notably from SC into southeast VA. 00Z soundings from the region indicate little or no instability, and very little lightning has been observed with this activity. Gusty winds may still occur with low-topped convection along the front over the next few hours before moving offshore, but the threat of 50 kt wind gusts has likely ended with the loss of heating. ..Jewell.. 02/29/2024 Read more

MD 0179 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST GA INTO THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT REGION AND FAR SOUTHERN VA
Mesoscale Discussion 0179 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Areas affected...Northeast GA into the Carolina Piedmont region and far southern VA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 282246Z - 290015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Localized strong/damaging gusts will remain possible into early evening before the threat diminishes. DISCUSSION...A eastward-moving band of convection, which earlier produced isolated measured severe gusts across parts of north GA and Upstate SC, has shown some signs of weakening over the last hour, with diminishing lightning activity. Downstream instability is very limited due to poor midlevel lapse rates, but seasonably strong heating/mixing occurred over the Carolina Piedmont region this afternoon. The combination of relatively steep low-level lapse rates and moderate low-level flow will continue to support a threat of localized strong/damaging gusts into early evening, before a more definitive weakening trend occurs tonight. ..Dean/Edwards.. 02/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...FFC... LAT...LON 33678277 33758266 34958053 35338023 35488030 35598047 35668052 36058004 36917881 37077829 36997785 36587790 36087815 35487854 34807915 34208013 33758097 33158230 33328313 33678277 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Feb 28 22:49:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Feb 28 22:24:02 UTC 2024.

MD 0178 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH GA INTO WESTERN SC
Mesoscale Discussion 0178 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Areas affected...North GA into western SC Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 281959Z - 282200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Localized damaging winds will remain possible through the rest of the afternoon as a low-topped squall line moves east across north Georgia into western South Carolina. DISCUSSION...Lightning production within a long-lived but thin squall line has become confined to parts of north GA into east-central AL, where echo tops remain below 30k ft. A brief uptick in intensity was noted into northwest GA where 35-45 kt measured gusts and subsequent reports of nearby tree damage occurred, as the line has approached the greater Atlanta Metro Area. Scant buoyancy with MLCAPE below 200 J/kg remains the limiting factor to a more prominent severe threat. Still, with surface temperatures in the mid 70s ahead of the squall into the Savannah Valley, sporadic strong gusts from 45 to 60 mph will remain possible through sunset. ..Grams/Guyer.. 02/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...BMX... LAT...LON 34358391 34478298 34578230 34538197 34348147 33858125 33518130 33278149 33118206 33048329 33068467 33078510 33268542 33418538 34358391 Read more

MD 0177 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CASCADES IN WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTHERN OREGON.
Mesoscale Discussion 0177 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Areas affected...the northern and central Cascades in Washington and far northern Oregon. Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 281815Z - 282145Z SUMMARY...2 to 3 inch per hour snowfall rates are likely above 4000 feet this afternoon. DISCUSSION...A plume of deep moisture (PWAT of 0.81" on the UIL 12Z RAOB) continues to be transported into the Pacific Northwest by strong low to mid-level flow ahead of an approaching mid-level trough. Current snowfall levels are observed around 4000 feet which should stay consistent through the afternoon. The 12Z UIL RAOB sampled a 50 knot southwesterly low-level jet centered around 775mb. RAP forecast soundings show winds veering slightly and increasing to 60 to 65 knots around 20-22Z. This should represent a maximum in orographic ascent and snowfall rates during the afternoon. Snowfall rates of 3 inches per hour are likely during that period with locally higher rates, particularly at higher elevations. Heavy snowfall rates will persist into the late afternoon before waning after 00Z as low-level flow starts to weaken and PWAT values decrease. ..Bentley.. 02/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PDT...SEW...PQR... LAT...LON 46932225 47132198 47342189 47562176 47892181 48072193 48442220 48552228 48822230 48942228 49022227 49072095 48412119 47852119 47302129 45842145 45472147 45132168 44912210 44862234 45102240 45292221 45542221 45682230 45942245 46052258 46202263 46402255 46542248 46672251 46762252 46862242 46932225 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z A broad trough in the West is still forecast this weekend to move through the Great Basin into the Southwest. The northward/less amplified shift in guidance has halted for now. Despite some remaining uncertainty in the troughs evolution, critical fire weather appears likely for portions of the southern High Plains and perhaps into the central High Plains vicinity. Flow across the CONUS will trend more zonal into the middle next week. Thereafter, models suggest another trough moving into the West, but predictability is currently low. ...Parts of Central/Southern High Plains... A shortwave trough now over Baja will eject into the region this Thursday and is expected to produce at least light precipitation for parts of the southern High Plains. Current guidance suggests totals will be fairly minimal except where convective elements may develop. This continues to add some uncertainty to the forecast in terms of fuels. Increased probabilities were considered for Saturday, but they will be withheld until more confidence in the amount of precipitation and its impacts is higher. By Sunday, critical fire weather will likely peak with most impacts of any precipitation mitigated by dry and windy conditions on Saturday. Probabilities on Sunday have been increased across the OK/TX Panhandles vicinity where favorable overlap of strong low level and upper level winds will exist. ..Wendt.. 02/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z A broad trough in the West is still forecast this weekend to move through the Great Basin into the Southwest. The northward/less amplified shift in guidance has halted for now. Despite some remaining uncertainty in the troughs evolution, critical fire weather appears likely for portions of the southern High Plains and perhaps into the central High Plains vicinity. Flow across the CONUS will trend more zonal into the middle next week. Thereafter, models suggest another trough moving into the West, but predictability is currently low. ...Parts of Central/Southern High Plains... A shortwave trough now over Baja will eject into the region this Thursday and is expected to produce at least light precipitation for parts of the southern High Plains. Current guidance suggests totals will be fairly minimal except where convective elements may develop. This continues to add some uncertainty to the forecast in terms of fuels. Increased probabilities were considered for Saturday, but they will be withheld until more confidence in the amount of precipitation and its impacts is higher. By Sunday, critical fire weather will likely peak with most impacts of any precipitation mitigated by dry and windy conditions on Saturday. Probabilities on Sunday have been increased across the OK/TX Panhandles vicinity where favorable overlap of strong low level and upper level winds will exist. ..Wendt.. 02/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z A broad trough in the West is still forecast this weekend to move through the Great Basin into the Southwest. The northward/less amplified shift in guidance has halted for now. Despite some remaining uncertainty in the troughs evolution, critical fire weather appears likely for portions of the southern High Plains and perhaps into the central High Plains vicinity. Flow across the CONUS will trend more zonal into the middle next week. Thereafter, models suggest another trough moving into the West, but predictability is currently low. ...Parts of Central/Southern High Plains... A shortwave trough now over Baja will eject into the region this Thursday and is expected to produce at least light precipitation for parts of the southern High Plains. Current guidance suggests totals will be fairly minimal except where convective elements may develop. This continues to add some uncertainty to the forecast in terms of fuels. Increased probabilities were considered for Saturday, but they will be withheld until more confidence in the amount of precipitation and its impacts is higher. By Sunday, critical fire weather will likely peak with most impacts of any precipitation mitigated by dry and windy conditions on Saturday. Probabilities on Sunday have been increased across the OK/TX Panhandles vicinity where favorable overlap of strong low level and upper level winds will exist. ..Wendt.. 02/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z A broad trough in the West is still forecast this weekend to move through the Great Basin into the Southwest. The northward/less amplified shift in guidance has halted for now. Despite some remaining uncertainty in the troughs evolution, critical fire weather appears likely for portions of the southern High Plains and perhaps into the central High Plains vicinity. Flow across the CONUS will trend more zonal into the middle next week. Thereafter, models suggest another trough moving into the West, but predictability is currently low. ...Parts of Central/Southern High Plains... A shortwave trough now over Baja will eject into the region this Thursday and is expected to produce at least light precipitation for parts of the southern High Plains. Current guidance suggests totals will be fairly minimal except where convective elements may develop. This continues to add some uncertainty to the forecast in terms of fuels. Increased probabilities were considered for Saturday, but they will be withheld until more confidence in the amount of precipitation and its impacts is higher. By Sunday, critical fire weather will likely peak with most impacts of any precipitation mitigated by dry and windy conditions on Saturday. Probabilities on Sunday have been increased across the OK/TX Panhandles vicinity where favorable overlap of strong low level and upper level winds will exist. ..Wendt.. 02/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z A broad trough in the West is still forecast this weekend to move through the Great Basin into the Southwest. The northward/less amplified shift in guidance has halted for now. Despite some remaining uncertainty in the troughs evolution, critical fire weather appears likely for portions of the southern High Plains and perhaps into the central High Plains vicinity. Flow across the CONUS will trend more zonal into the middle next week. Thereafter, models suggest another trough moving into the West, but predictability is currently low. ...Parts of Central/Southern High Plains... A shortwave trough now over Baja will eject into the region this Thursday and is expected to produce at least light precipitation for parts of the southern High Plains. Current guidance suggests totals will be fairly minimal except where convective elements may develop. This continues to add some uncertainty to the forecast in terms of fuels. Increased probabilities were considered for Saturday, but they will be withheld until more confidence in the amount of precipitation and its impacts is higher. By Sunday, critical fire weather will likely peak with most impacts of any precipitation mitigated by dry and windy conditions on Saturday. Probabilities on Sunday have been increased across the OK/TX Panhandles vicinity where favorable overlap of strong low level and upper level winds will exist. ..Wendt.. 02/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z A broad trough in the West is still forecast this weekend to move through the Great Basin into the Southwest. The northward/less amplified shift in guidance has halted for now. Despite some remaining uncertainty in the troughs evolution, critical fire weather appears likely for portions of the southern High Plains and perhaps into the central High Plains vicinity. Flow across the CONUS will trend more zonal into the middle next week. Thereafter, models suggest another trough moving into the West, but predictability is currently low. ...Parts of Central/Southern High Plains... A shortwave trough now over Baja will eject into the region this Thursday and is expected to produce at least light precipitation for parts of the southern High Plains. Current guidance suggests totals will be fairly minimal except where convective elements may develop. This continues to add some uncertainty to the forecast in terms of fuels. Increased probabilities were considered for Saturday, but they will be withheld until more confidence in the amount of precipitation and its impacts is higher. By Sunday, critical fire weather will likely peak with most impacts of any precipitation mitigated by dry and windy conditions on Saturday. Probabilities on Sunday have been increased across the OK/TX Panhandles vicinity where favorable overlap of strong low level and upper level winds will exist. ..Wendt.. 02/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z A broad trough in the West is still forecast this weekend to move through the Great Basin into the Southwest. The northward/less amplified shift in guidance has halted for now. Despite some remaining uncertainty in the troughs evolution, critical fire weather appears likely for portions of the southern High Plains and perhaps into the central High Plains vicinity. Flow across the CONUS will trend more zonal into the middle next week. Thereafter, models suggest another trough moving into the West, but predictability is currently low. ...Parts of Central/Southern High Plains... A shortwave trough now over Baja will eject into the region this Thursday and is expected to produce at least light precipitation for parts of the southern High Plains. Current guidance suggests totals will be fairly minimal except where convective elements may develop. This continues to add some uncertainty to the forecast in terms of fuels. Increased probabilities were considered for Saturday, but they will be withheld until more confidence in the amount of precipitation and its impacts is higher. By Sunday, critical fire weather will likely peak with most impacts of any precipitation mitigated by dry and windy conditions on Saturday. Probabilities on Sunday have been increased across the OK/TX Panhandles vicinity where favorable overlap of strong low level and upper level winds will exist. ..Wendt.. 02/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z A broad trough in the West is still forecast this weekend to move through the Great Basin into the Southwest. The northward/less amplified shift in guidance has halted for now. Despite some remaining uncertainty in the troughs evolution, critical fire weather appears likely for portions of the southern High Plains and perhaps into the central High Plains vicinity. Flow across the CONUS will trend more zonal into the middle next week. Thereafter, models suggest another trough moving into the West, but predictability is currently low. ...Parts of Central/Southern High Plains... A shortwave trough now over Baja will eject into the region this Thursday and is expected to produce at least light precipitation for parts of the southern High Plains. Current guidance suggests totals will be fairly minimal except where convective elements may develop. This continues to add some uncertainty to the forecast in terms of fuels. Increased probabilities were considered for Saturday, but they will be withheld until more confidence in the amount of precipitation and its impacts is higher. By Sunday, critical fire weather will likely peak with most impacts of any precipitation mitigated by dry and windy conditions on Saturday. Probabilities on Sunday have been increased across the OK/TX Panhandles vicinity where favorable overlap of strong low level and upper level winds will exist. ..Wendt.. 02/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z A broad trough in the West is still forecast this weekend to move through the Great Basin into the Southwest. The northward/less amplified shift in guidance has halted for now. Despite some remaining uncertainty in the troughs evolution, critical fire weather appears likely for portions of the southern High Plains and perhaps into the central High Plains vicinity. Flow across the CONUS will trend more zonal into the middle next week. Thereafter, models suggest another trough moving into the West, but predictability is currently low. ...Parts of Central/Southern High Plains... A shortwave trough now over Baja will eject into the region this Thursday and is expected to produce at least light precipitation for parts of the southern High Plains. Current guidance suggests totals will be fairly minimal except where convective elements may develop. This continues to add some uncertainty to the forecast in terms of fuels. Increased probabilities were considered for Saturday, but they will be withheld until more confidence in the amount of precipitation and its impacts is higher. By Sunday, critical fire weather will likely peak with most impacts of any precipitation mitigated by dry and windy conditions on Saturday. Probabilities on Sunday have been increased across the OK/TX Panhandles vicinity where favorable overlap of strong low level and upper level winds will exist. ..Wendt.. 02/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe wind gusts will be possible today from portions of the Northeast southward into the Mid-Atlantic Region, and portions of the Carolinas and Southeast. ...20Z Update... Recent surface analysis places a low over southern Quebec, with an extensive cold front extending south of this low into the central Appalachians and then back more southwestward into southern LA. Thunderstorms are ongoing along this front over portions of TN, GA, and AL. The lack of buoyancy is limiting storm depth and lightning production along much the front farther north from the central Appalachians into southern Quebec. The only exception is over western NY, where brief clearing allowed surface temperatures to climb into the upper 50s/low 60s, promoting minimal buoyancy. Damaging gusts will remain possible along the length of this front throughout the afternoon and evening, particularly in areas where deeper storm depth contributes to stronger, convectively augmented gusts. ..Mosier.. 02/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024/ ...Tennessee Valley/Appalachians... A well-organized northeast/southwest-oriented thunderstorm squall line continues to progress generally eastward across northern Alabama, eastern Tennessee as well as southeast Kentucky and southern West Virginia as of late morning, largely paralleling an eastward-moving cold front. Periodic strong or locally severe wind gusts will remain a possibility across a broad portion of the region today, but especially across the Tennessee Valley toward southern Appalachians where somewhat stronger heating and destabilization are expected coincident with the southern periphery of strong winds aloft and weak height falls. Farther north, showers and cloud cover will tend to remain prevalent across much of the pre-frontal warm sector across the Northeast, although some clearing/weak destabilization is possible later this afternoon immediately near the front currently across the Upper Ohio Valley. Read more