Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Strong but predominately zonal mid-level flow is expected across the western US to start the extended forecast period. This pattern will quickly amplify into the weekend as a deepening upper trough moves onshore across southern CA. Strong flow aloft will overspread the southern Plains deepening a lee low and enhancing surface winds. Hot, dry, and windy conditions will support widespread elevated to critical conditions through the weekend and potentially into early next week. Model guidance begins to vary after this with colder and wetter conditions possible behind a cold front expected toward the end of the extended forecast period. ...Southern High Plains... Southwest flow aloft is forecast to quickly strengthen late this week and into the weekend ahead of the deepening Pacific trough. As flow aloft intensifies, several weak perturbations are forecast to move over the southern Rockies into the southern Plains Starting D3/Fri. Aided by the mid-level ascent, the surface lee trough should begin to deepen and bolster westerly surface winds through the afternoon. Forecast soundings show sustained winds of 15-20 mph with higher gusts likely across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle. With temperatures forecast to warm into the 70s, the dry air mass should allow for diurnal RH minimums of 15-20%. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely, with some hints that localized critical concerns are also possible but more uncertain. Flow aloft should weaken slightly D4/Saturday under the influence of shortwave ridging as the upper air pattern continues to amplify ahead of the western US trough. While weaker, westerly winds should still support lee troughing and 15-20 mph surface winds. Warming temperatures beneath the transient ridging should also keep RH minimums near 15% with elevated fire-weather conditions possible. More significant fire-weather conditions are expected D5/Sun into D6/Mon. The main upper trough will begin to eject eastward spreading 80-100 kt of mid-level flow over the southern Plains. A strong lee low will develop, enhancing southwest surface winds to 25-35 mph and higher gusts. With afternoon RH values in the 10-15% range, widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear likely across parts of west TX and eastern NM. This risk may continue into D6/Monday as the dryline and upper-level systems shift eastward. However, confidence in placement of these features remains lower owing to potential thunderstorms and the arrival of a cold front in the wake of the surface low. Fire-weather concerns appear much less likely through the end of the extended forecast period as below normal temperatures and wetter surface conditions are forecast to develop. ..Lyons.. 03/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Strong but predominately zonal mid-level flow is expected across the western US to start the extended forecast period. This pattern will quickly amplify into the weekend as a deepening upper trough moves onshore across southern CA. Strong flow aloft will overspread the southern Plains deepening a lee low and enhancing surface winds. Hot, dry, and windy conditions will support widespread elevated to critical conditions through the weekend and potentially into early next week. Model guidance begins to vary after this with colder and wetter conditions possible behind a cold front expected toward the end of the extended forecast period. ...Southern High Plains... Southwest flow aloft is forecast to quickly strengthen late this week and into the weekend ahead of the deepening Pacific trough. As flow aloft intensifies, several weak perturbations are forecast to move over the southern Rockies into the southern Plains Starting D3/Fri. Aided by the mid-level ascent, the surface lee trough should begin to deepen and bolster westerly surface winds through the afternoon. Forecast soundings show sustained winds of 15-20 mph with higher gusts likely across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle. With temperatures forecast to warm into the 70s, the dry air mass should allow for diurnal RH minimums of 15-20%. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely, with some hints that localized critical concerns are also possible but more uncertain. Flow aloft should weaken slightly D4/Saturday under the influence of shortwave ridging as the upper air pattern continues to amplify ahead of the western US trough. While weaker, westerly winds should still support lee troughing and 15-20 mph surface winds. Warming temperatures beneath the transient ridging should also keep RH minimums near 15% with elevated fire-weather conditions possible. More significant fire-weather conditions are expected D5/Sun into D6/Mon. The main upper trough will begin to eject eastward spreading 80-100 kt of mid-level flow over the southern Plains. A strong lee low will develop, enhancing southwest surface winds to 25-35 mph and higher gusts. With afternoon RH values in the 10-15% range, widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear likely across parts of west TX and eastern NM. This risk may continue into D6/Monday as the dryline and upper-level systems shift eastward. However, confidence in placement of these features remains lower owing to potential thunderstorms and the arrival of a cold front in the wake of the surface low. Fire-weather concerns appear much less likely through the end of the extended forecast period as below normal temperatures and wetter surface conditions are forecast to develop. ..Lyons.. 03/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0310 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0310 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Areas affected...parts of central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 271852Z - 272115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...The risk for a few strong thunderstorms with potential to produce severe hail and locally strong surface gusts appears likely to increase by 4-6 PM CDT. DISCUSSION...Beneath cold air (including 500 mb temperatures around -23 to -26 C) associated with mid-level troughing shifting across the southern Great Plains, a deepening well-mixed boundary-layer continues to evolve with daytime heating across the Edwards Plateau into Hill Country. Near the leading edge of the stronger differential surface heating, where surface dew points are still as high as the mid/upper 40s F, destabilization is contributing to deepening convective development, within moderately sheared westerly to west-northwesterly deep-layer mean flow. With additional insolation, it appears that mixed-layer CAPE may increase in excess of 500 J/kg. As the sharp trailing flank of the mid-level cold pool begins to progress east-northeast of the Permian Basin, strongest instability is forecast to shift toward the I-35 corridor of central Texas through 21-23Z, where/when initiation and intensification of thunderstorm activity appear increasingly probable, perhaps aided by ascent associated with low-level warm advection. Given the evolving thermodynamic profiles and favorable deep-layer shear, a few supercell structures may develop and pose a risk for producing severe hail and locally strong surface gusts through early evening, before weakening. ..Kerr/Hart.. 03/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 32339814 31519735 30239760 30089850 32119908 32339814 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NEAR-COASTAL SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and damaging winds remain possible over parts of the near-coastal Southeast, as well as portions of central and north Texas. ...20Z Update... No major changes have been made to the outlook. The evolution of convection remains uncertain across north FL due to ongoing storms, but redevelopment of a few strong storms remains possible along the cold front into southeast GA and the Carolinas late this afternoon into this evening. Storms have recently developed across central TX, with additional development possible into north TX later this afternoon. Cold air aloft will support an isolated hail threat with the strongest storms in this area. See the previous discussion below for more information, and MCD 310 regarding the short-term threat in central TX. ..Dean.. 03/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Minor changes were made to expand the Marginal risk across the southeast into portions of southern South Carolina and to expand the Marginal Risk across Texas further south into central Texas to account for recent trends. ...Southeast CONUS... A broken line of thunderstorms continues to move eastward across the northern Florida Panhandle this morning. This activity will move offshore through the late morning/afternoon. A surface cold front/stationary front will slowly move eastward as weak frontal wave develops across the Carolinas this afternoon and a surface low deepens across the Gulf. Broken mid-to high level cloud cover will remain in place across much of the northern Florida Peninsula northward into the Carolinas in the wake of morning convection. Strengthening warm air advection in combination with some breaks in the cloud cover across this region should help to allow air mass recovery into the afternoon, with RAP forecast soundings developing around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE in a band from southern South Carolina into the northern Florida Peninsula. Widespread thunderstorm development is expected along the front by late afternoon/early evening. A few more robust thunderstorms will be capable of damaging winds and large hail, given strong deep layer shear profiles. A few of these stronger storms may extend as far northward as southern South Carolina where a surface warm front/stationary front will extend, supporting a northward expansion of the Marginal risk into this region. ...Central and North Texas.... Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to develop across northern and central Texas this afternoon as temperatures cool aloft and steep lapse rates overspread modest moisture. This activity will largely be driven by diurnal heating, with storms developing in the afternoon and decreasing in coverage through the evening. Given the cooling aloft, steep lapse rates, and modest deep layer shear. A few transient supercell structures will be possible with potential for large hail and gusty winds. The Marginal across this region was expanded southward to account for recent trends in hi-res guidance to capture potential for afternoon thunderstorm coverage. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NEAR-COASTAL SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and damaging winds remain possible over parts of the near-coastal Southeast, as well as portions of central and north Texas. ...20Z Update... No major changes have been made to the outlook. The evolution of convection remains uncertain across north FL due to ongoing storms, but redevelopment of a few strong storms remains possible along the cold front into southeast GA and the Carolinas late this afternoon into this evening. Storms have recently developed across central TX, with additional development possible into north TX later this afternoon. Cold air aloft will support an isolated hail threat with the strongest storms in this area. See the previous discussion below for more information, and MCD 310 regarding the short-term threat in central TX. ..Dean.. 03/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Minor changes were made to expand the Marginal risk across the southeast into portions of southern South Carolina and to expand the Marginal Risk across Texas further south into central Texas to account for recent trends. ...Southeast CONUS... A broken line of thunderstorms continues to move eastward across the northern Florida Panhandle this morning. This activity will move offshore through the late morning/afternoon. A surface cold front/stationary front will slowly move eastward as weak frontal wave develops across the Carolinas this afternoon and a surface low deepens across the Gulf. Broken mid-to high level cloud cover will remain in place across much of the northern Florida Peninsula northward into the Carolinas in the wake of morning convection. Strengthening warm air advection in combination with some breaks in the cloud cover across this region should help to allow air mass recovery into the afternoon, with RAP forecast soundings developing around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE in a band from southern South Carolina into the northern Florida Peninsula. Widespread thunderstorm development is expected along the front by late afternoon/early evening. A few more robust thunderstorms will be capable of damaging winds and large hail, given strong deep layer shear profiles. A few of these stronger storms may extend as far northward as southern South Carolina where a surface warm front/stationary front will extend, supporting a northward expansion of the Marginal risk into this region. ...Central and North Texas.... Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to develop across northern and central Texas this afternoon as temperatures cool aloft and steep lapse rates overspread modest moisture. This activity will largely be driven by diurnal heating, with storms developing in the afternoon and decreasing in coverage through the evening. Given the cooling aloft, steep lapse rates, and modest deep layer shear. A few transient supercell structures will be possible with potential for large hail and gusty winds. The Marginal across this region was expanded southward to account for recent trends in hi-res guidance to capture potential for afternoon thunderstorm coverage. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NEAR-COASTAL SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and damaging winds remain possible over parts of the near-coastal Southeast, as well as portions of central and north Texas. ...20Z Update... No major changes have been made to the outlook. The evolution of convection remains uncertain across north FL due to ongoing storms, but redevelopment of a few strong storms remains possible along the cold front into southeast GA and the Carolinas late this afternoon into this evening. Storms have recently developed across central TX, with additional development possible into north TX later this afternoon. Cold air aloft will support an isolated hail threat with the strongest storms in this area. See the previous discussion below for more information, and MCD 310 regarding the short-term threat in central TX. ..Dean.. 03/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Minor changes were made to expand the Marginal risk across the southeast into portions of southern South Carolina and to expand the Marginal Risk across Texas further south into central Texas to account for recent trends. ...Southeast CONUS... A broken line of thunderstorms continues to move eastward across the northern Florida Panhandle this morning. This activity will move offshore through the late morning/afternoon. A surface cold front/stationary front will slowly move eastward as weak frontal wave develops across the Carolinas this afternoon and a surface low deepens across the Gulf. Broken mid-to high level cloud cover will remain in place across much of the northern Florida Peninsula northward into the Carolinas in the wake of morning convection. Strengthening warm air advection in combination with some breaks in the cloud cover across this region should help to allow air mass recovery into the afternoon, with RAP forecast soundings developing around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE in a band from southern South Carolina into the northern Florida Peninsula. Widespread thunderstorm development is expected along the front by late afternoon/early evening. A few more robust thunderstorms will be capable of damaging winds and large hail, given strong deep layer shear profiles. A few of these stronger storms may extend as far northward as southern South Carolina where a surface warm front/stationary front will extend, supporting a northward expansion of the Marginal risk into this region. ...Central and North Texas.... Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to develop across northern and central Texas this afternoon as temperatures cool aloft and steep lapse rates overspread modest moisture. This activity will largely be driven by diurnal heating, with storms developing in the afternoon and decreasing in coverage through the evening. Given the cooling aloft, steep lapse rates, and modest deep layer shear. A few transient supercell structures will be possible with potential for large hail and gusty winds. The Marginal across this region was expanded southward to account for recent trends in hi-res guidance to capture potential for afternoon thunderstorm coverage. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NEAR-COASTAL SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and damaging winds remain possible over parts of the near-coastal Southeast, as well as portions of central and north Texas. ...20Z Update... No major changes have been made to the outlook. The evolution of convection remains uncertain across north FL due to ongoing storms, but redevelopment of a few strong storms remains possible along the cold front into southeast GA and the Carolinas late this afternoon into this evening. Storms have recently developed across central TX, with additional development possible into north TX later this afternoon. Cold air aloft will support an isolated hail threat with the strongest storms in this area. See the previous discussion below for more information, and MCD 310 regarding the short-term threat in central TX. ..Dean.. 03/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Minor changes were made to expand the Marginal risk across the southeast into portions of southern South Carolina and to expand the Marginal Risk across Texas further south into central Texas to account for recent trends. ...Southeast CONUS... A broken line of thunderstorms continues to move eastward across the northern Florida Panhandle this morning. This activity will move offshore through the late morning/afternoon. A surface cold front/stationary front will slowly move eastward as weak frontal wave develops across the Carolinas this afternoon and a surface low deepens across the Gulf. Broken mid-to high level cloud cover will remain in place across much of the northern Florida Peninsula northward into the Carolinas in the wake of morning convection. Strengthening warm air advection in combination with some breaks in the cloud cover across this region should help to allow air mass recovery into the afternoon, with RAP forecast soundings developing around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE in a band from southern South Carolina into the northern Florida Peninsula. Widespread thunderstorm development is expected along the front by late afternoon/early evening. A few more robust thunderstorms will be capable of damaging winds and large hail, given strong deep layer shear profiles. A few of these stronger storms may extend as far northward as southern South Carolina where a surface warm front/stationary front will extend, supporting a northward expansion of the Marginal risk into this region. ...Central and North Texas.... Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to develop across northern and central Texas this afternoon as temperatures cool aloft and steep lapse rates overspread modest moisture. This activity will largely be driven by diurnal heating, with storms developing in the afternoon and decreasing in coverage through the evening. Given the cooling aloft, steep lapse rates, and modest deep layer shear. A few transient supercell structures will be possible with potential for large hail and gusty winds. The Marginal across this region was expanded southward to account for recent trends in hi-res guidance to capture potential for afternoon thunderstorm coverage. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NEAR-COASTAL SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and damaging winds remain possible over parts of the near-coastal Southeast, as well as portions of central and north Texas. ...20Z Update... No major changes have been made to the outlook. The evolution of convection remains uncertain across north FL due to ongoing storms, but redevelopment of a few strong storms remains possible along the cold front into southeast GA and the Carolinas late this afternoon into this evening. Storms have recently developed across central TX, with additional development possible into north TX later this afternoon. Cold air aloft will support an isolated hail threat with the strongest storms in this area. See the previous discussion below for more information, and MCD 310 regarding the short-term threat in central TX. ..Dean.. 03/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Minor changes were made to expand the Marginal risk across the southeast into portions of southern South Carolina and to expand the Marginal Risk across Texas further south into central Texas to account for recent trends. ...Southeast CONUS... A broken line of thunderstorms continues to move eastward across the northern Florida Panhandle this morning. This activity will move offshore through the late morning/afternoon. A surface cold front/stationary front will slowly move eastward as weak frontal wave develops across the Carolinas this afternoon and a surface low deepens across the Gulf. Broken mid-to high level cloud cover will remain in place across much of the northern Florida Peninsula northward into the Carolinas in the wake of morning convection. Strengthening warm air advection in combination with some breaks in the cloud cover across this region should help to allow air mass recovery into the afternoon, with RAP forecast soundings developing around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE in a band from southern South Carolina into the northern Florida Peninsula. Widespread thunderstorm development is expected along the front by late afternoon/early evening. A few more robust thunderstorms will be capable of damaging winds and large hail, given strong deep layer shear profiles. A few of these stronger storms may extend as far northward as southern South Carolina where a surface warm front/stationary front will extend, supporting a northward expansion of the Marginal risk into this region. ...Central and North Texas.... Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to develop across northern and central Texas this afternoon as temperatures cool aloft and steep lapse rates overspread modest moisture. This activity will largely be driven by diurnal heating, with storms developing in the afternoon and decreasing in coverage through the evening. Given the cooling aloft, steep lapse rates, and modest deep layer shear. A few transient supercell structures will be possible with potential for large hail and gusty winds. The Marginal across this region was expanded southward to account for recent trends in hi-res guidance to capture potential for afternoon thunderstorm coverage. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NEAR-COASTAL SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and damaging winds remain possible over parts of the near-coastal Southeast, as well as portions of central and north Texas. ...20Z Update... No major changes have been made to the outlook. The evolution of convection remains uncertain across north FL due to ongoing storms, but redevelopment of a few strong storms remains possible along the cold front into southeast GA and the Carolinas late this afternoon into this evening. Storms have recently developed across central TX, with additional development possible into north TX later this afternoon. Cold air aloft will support an isolated hail threat with the strongest storms in this area. See the previous discussion below for more information, and MCD 310 regarding the short-term threat in central TX. ..Dean.. 03/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Minor changes were made to expand the Marginal risk across the southeast into portions of southern South Carolina and to expand the Marginal Risk across Texas further south into central Texas to account for recent trends. ...Southeast CONUS... A broken line of thunderstorms continues to move eastward across the northern Florida Panhandle this morning. This activity will move offshore through the late morning/afternoon. A surface cold front/stationary front will slowly move eastward as weak frontal wave develops across the Carolinas this afternoon and a surface low deepens across the Gulf. Broken mid-to high level cloud cover will remain in place across much of the northern Florida Peninsula northward into the Carolinas in the wake of morning convection. Strengthening warm air advection in combination with some breaks in the cloud cover across this region should help to allow air mass recovery into the afternoon, with RAP forecast soundings developing around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE in a band from southern South Carolina into the northern Florida Peninsula. Widespread thunderstorm development is expected along the front by late afternoon/early evening. A few more robust thunderstorms will be capable of damaging winds and large hail, given strong deep layer shear profiles. A few of these stronger storms may extend as far northward as southern South Carolina where a surface warm front/stationary front will extend, supporting a northward expansion of the Marginal risk into this region. ...Central and North Texas.... Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to develop across northern and central Texas this afternoon as temperatures cool aloft and steep lapse rates overspread modest moisture. This activity will largely be driven by diurnal heating, with storms developing in the afternoon and decreasing in coverage through the evening. Given the cooling aloft, steep lapse rates, and modest deep layer shear. A few transient supercell structures will be possible with potential for large hail and gusty winds. The Marginal across this region was expanded southward to account for recent trends in hi-res guidance to capture potential for afternoon thunderstorm coverage. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NEAR-COASTAL SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and damaging winds remain possible over parts of the near-coastal Southeast, as well as portions of central and north Texas. ...20Z Update... No major changes have been made to the outlook. The evolution of convection remains uncertain across north FL due to ongoing storms, but redevelopment of a few strong storms remains possible along the cold front into southeast GA and the Carolinas late this afternoon into this evening. Storms have recently developed across central TX, with additional development possible into north TX later this afternoon. Cold air aloft will support an isolated hail threat with the strongest storms in this area. See the previous discussion below for more information, and MCD 310 regarding the short-term threat in central TX. ..Dean.. 03/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Minor changes were made to expand the Marginal risk across the southeast into portions of southern South Carolina and to expand the Marginal Risk across Texas further south into central Texas to account for recent trends. ...Southeast CONUS... A broken line of thunderstorms continues to move eastward across the northern Florida Panhandle this morning. This activity will move offshore through the late morning/afternoon. A surface cold front/stationary front will slowly move eastward as weak frontal wave develops across the Carolinas this afternoon and a surface low deepens across the Gulf. Broken mid-to high level cloud cover will remain in place across much of the northern Florida Peninsula northward into the Carolinas in the wake of morning convection. Strengthening warm air advection in combination with some breaks in the cloud cover across this region should help to allow air mass recovery into the afternoon, with RAP forecast soundings developing around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE in a band from southern South Carolina into the northern Florida Peninsula. Widespread thunderstorm development is expected along the front by late afternoon/early evening. A few more robust thunderstorms will be capable of damaging winds and large hail, given strong deep layer shear profiles. A few of these stronger storms may extend as far northward as southern South Carolina where a surface warm front/stationary front will extend, supporting a northward expansion of the Marginal risk into this region. ...Central and North Texas.... Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to develop across northern and central Texas this afternoon as temperatures cool aloft and steep lapse rates overspread modest moisture. This activity will largely be driven by diurnal heating, with storms developing in the afternoon and decreasing in coverage through the evening. Given the cooling aloft, steep lapse rates, and modest deep layer shear. A few transient supercell structures will be possible with potential for large hail and gusty winds. The Marginal across this region was expanded southward to account for recent trends in hi-res guidance to capture potential for afternoon thunderstorm coverage. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NEAR-COASTAL SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and damaging winds remain possible over parts of the near-coastal Southeast, as well as portions of central and north Texas. ...20Z Update... No major changes have been made to the outlook. The evolution of convection remains uncertain across north FL due to ongoing storms, but redevelopment of a few strong storms remains possible along the cold front into southeast GA and the Carolinas late this afternoon into this evening. Storms have recently developed across central TX, with additional development possible into north TX later this afternoon. Cold air aloft will support an isolated hail threat with the strongest storms in this area. See the previous discussion below for more information, and MCD 310 regarding the short-term threat in central TX. ..Dean.. 03/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Minor changes were made to expand the Marginal risk across the southeast into portions of southern South Carolina and to expand the Marginal Risk across Texas further south into central Texas to account for recent trends. ...Southeast CONUS... A broken line of thunderstorms continues to move eastward across the northern Florida Panhandle this morning. This activity will move offshore through the late morning/afternoon. A surface cold front/stationary front will slowly move eastward as weak frontal wave develops across the Carolinas this afternoon and a surface low deepens across the Gulf. Broken mid-to high level cloud cover will remain in place across much of the northern Florida Peninsula northward into the Carolinas in the wake of morning convection. Strengthening warm air advection in combination with some breaks in the cloud cover across this region should help to allow air mass recovery into the afternoon, with RAP forecast soundings developing around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE in a band from southern South Carolina into the northern Florida Peninsula. Widespread thunderstorm development is expected along the front by late afternoon/early evening. A few more robust thunderstorms will be capable of damaging winds and large hail, given strong deep layer shear profiles. A few of these stronger storms may extend as far northward as southern South Carolina where a surface warm front/stationary front will extend, supporting a northward expansion of the Marginal risk into this region. ...Central and North Texas.... Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to develop across northern and central Texas this afternoon as temperatures cool aloft and steep lapse rates overspread modest moisture. This activity will largely be driven by diurnal heating, with storms developing in the afternoon and decreasing in coverage through the evening. Given the cooling aloft, steep lapse rates, and modest deep layer shear. A few transient supercell structures will be possible with potential for large hail and gusty winds. The Marginal across this region was expanded southward to account for recent trends in hi-res guidance to capture potential for afternoon thunderstorm coverage. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...20z Update... Despite recent light precipitation including snow, rapidly warming temperatures and a switch to southerly winds should support drying across much of the southern High Plains Thursday. Widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely with sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph and relative humidity of 15-20%. Localized critical conditions may also develop across parts of the western TX Panhandle where winds could gust closer to 30 mph with RH below 15% briefly. See previous discussion for additional information. Trimmed the eastern edge of the Elevated area away from heavier precipitation. ..Lyons.. 03/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will approach the Rocky Mountains tomorrow (Thursday), with surface lee troughing and associated dry downslope flow anticipated across portions of the southern High Plains. For the afternoon hours, the latest guidance consensus depicts 15+ mph sustained south-southwesterly winds coinciding with 15-20 percent RH across eastern New Mexico into western Texas. With fuels being marginally receptive to wildfire spread, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...20z Update... Despite recent light precipitation including snow, rapidly warming temperatures and a switch to southerly winds should support drying across much of the southern High Plains Thursday. Widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely with sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph and relative humidity of 15-20%. Localized critical conditions may also develop across parts of the western TX Panhandle where winds could gust closer to 30 mph with RH below 15% briefly. See previous discussion for additional information. Trimmed the eastern edge of the Elevated area away from heavier precipitation. ..Lyons.. 03/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will approach the Rocky Mountains tomorrow (Thursday), with surface lee troughing and associated dry downslope flow anticipated across portions of the southern High Plains. For the afternoon hours, the latest guidance consensus depicts 15+ mph sustained south-southwesterly winds coinciding with 15-20 percent RH across eastern New Mexico into western Texas. With fuels being marginally receptive to wildfire spread, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...20z Update... Despite recent light precipitation including snow, rapidly warming temperatures and a switch to southerly winds should support drying across much of the southern High Plains Thursday. Widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely with sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph and relative humidity of 15-20%. Localized critical conditions may also develop across parts of the western TX Panhandle where winds could gust closer to 30 mph with RH below 15% briefly. See previous discussion for additional information. Trimmed the eastern edge of the Elevated area away from heavier precipitation. ..Lyons.. 03/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will approach the Rocky Mountains tomorrow (Thursday), with surface lee troughing and associated dry downslope flow anticipated across portions of the southern High Plains. For the afternoon hours, the latest guidance consensus depicts 15+ mph sustained south-southwesterly winds coinciding with 15-20 percent RH across eastern New Mexico into western Texas. With fuels being marginally receptive to wildfire spread, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...20z Update... Despite recent light precipitation including snow, rapidly warming temperatures and a switch to southerly winds should support drying across much of the southern High Plains Thursday. Widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely with sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph and relative humidity of 15-20%. Localized critical conditions may also develop across parts of the western TX Panhandle where winds could gust closer to 30 mph with RH below 15% briefly. See previous discussion for additional information. Trimmed the eastern edge of the Elevated area away from heavier precipitation. ..Lyons.. 03/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will approach the Rocky Mountains tomorrow (Thursday), with surface lee troughing and associated dry downslope flow anticipated across portions of the southern High Plains. For the afternoon hours, the latest guidance consensus depicts 15+ mph sustained south-southwesterly winds coinciding with 15-20 percent RH across eastern New Mexico into western Texas. With fuels being marginally receptive to wildfire spread, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...20z Update... Despite recent light precipitation including snow, rapidly warming temperatures and a switch to southerly winds should support drying across much of the southern High Plains Thursday. Widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely with sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph and relative humidity of 15-20%. Localized critical conditions may also develop across parts of the western TX Panhandle where winds could gust closer to 30 mph with RH below 15% briefly. See previous discussion for additional information. Trimmed the eastern edge of the Elevated area away from heavier precipitation. ..Lyons.. 03/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will approach the Rocky Mountains tomorrow (Thursday), with surface lee troughing and associated dry downslope flow anticipated across portions of the southern High Plains. For the afternoon hours, the latest guidance consensus depicts 15+ mph sustained south-southwesterly winds coinciding with 15-20 percent RH across eastern New Mexico into western Texas. With fuels being marginally receptive to wildfire spread, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...20z Update... Despite recent light precipitation including snow, rapidly warming temperatures and a switch to southerly winds should support drying across much of the southern High Plains Thursday. Widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely with sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph and relative humidity of 15-20%. Localized critical conditions may also develop across parts of the western TX Panhandle where winds could gust closer to 30 mph with RH below 15% briefly. See previous discussion for additional information. Trimmed the eastern edge of the Elevated area away from heavier precipitation. ..Lyons.. 03/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will approach the Rocky Mountains tomorrow (Thursday), with surface lee troughing and associated dry downslope flow anticipated across portions of the southern High Plains. For the afternoon hours, the latest guidance consensus depicts 15+ mph sustained south-southwesterly winds coinciding with 15-20 percent RH across eastern New Mexico into western Texas. With fuels being marginally receptive to wildfire spread, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...20z Update... Despite recent light precipitation including snow, rapidly warming temperatures and a switch to southerly winds should support drying across much of the southern High Plains Thursday. Widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely with sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph and relative humidity of 15-20%. Localized critical conditions may also develop across parts of the western TX Panhandle where winds could gust closer to 30 mph with RH below 15% briefly. See previous discussion for additional information. Trimmed the eastern edge of the Elevated area away from heavier precipitation. ..Lyons.. 03/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will approach the Rocky Mountains tomorrow (Thursday), with surface lee troughing and associated dry downslope flow anticipated across portions of the southern High Plains. For the afternoon hours, the latest guidance consensus depicts 15+ mph sustained south-southwesterly winds coinciding with 15-20 percent RH across eastern New Mexico into western Texas. With fuels being marginally receptive to wildfire spread, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...20z Update... Despite recent light precipitation including snow, rapidly warming temperatures and a switch to southerly winds should support drying across much of the southern High Plains Thursday. Widespread elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely with sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph and relative humidity of 15-20%. Localized critical conditions may also develop across parts of the western TX Panhandle where winds could gust closer to 30 mph with RH below 15% briefly. See previous discussion for additional information. Trimmed the eastern edge of the Elevated area away from heavier precipitation. ..Lyons.. 03/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will approach the Rocky Mountains tomorrow (Thursday), with surface lee troughing and associated dry downslope flow anticipated across portions of the southern High Plains. For the afternoon hours, the latest guidance consensus depicts 15+ mph sustained south-southwesterly winds coinciding with 15-20 percent RH across eastern New Mexico into western Texas. With fuels being marginally receptive to wildfire spread, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0309 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 0309 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Areas affected...portions of the central Florida Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 271753Z - 271900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms may produce damaging winds and hail over the next hour. DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms off the coast of the Florida peninsula has shown an increase intensity as it moves inland. Surface objective analysis would suggest that MLCIN is still in place inland, though deep layer shear remains strong (45-50 kts). More robust portions of this line may produce localized large hail and damaging winds before it begins to weaken further inland. Overall this threat should remain brief and as such a watch is not likely to be needed. ..Thornton/Hart.. 03/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 28908327 29238282 29368237 29398201 29358173 29188138 28988136 28788150 28648161 28558175 28338226 28188267 28118291 28148324 28278330 28448331 28908327 Read more