Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough over the eastern CONUS is forecast to continue moving eastward on Friday. Upstream, an upper-level trough will continue to amplify across the West, as a deep-layer cyclone moves southeastward just offshore of the central CA coast. Between the eastern and western troughs, multiple low-amplitude shortwaves will move northeastward across parts of the central/northern Plains and upper Midwest. The greatest relative thunderstorm potential is currently expected over parts of the Midwest/Mid-Upper MS Valley within a warm-advection regime, and near the central CA coast in association with the offshore cyclone. ...Parts of the Midwest/Mid-Upper MS Valley... Modest low-level moisture return (surface dewpoints in the low 50s F) is expected across parts of MO/IA into western/northern IL, as a weak surface low moves from the east-central Great Plains toward southern WI. Modest MLCAPE (increasing to near/above 500 J/kg) may develop in the warm sector of the surface low, though capping is currently expected to limit the potential for surface-based storm development. Elevated thunderstorm development will become increasingly possible with time Friday evening, within a low-level warm-advection regime. While increasing effective shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, rather weak elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE generally 500-1000 J/kg) is currently expected to limit severe-hail potential. If elevated buoyancy trends larger than currently forecast, and/or if surface-based storm development becomes more of a concern, then low-end severe probabilities may eventually be needed. ..Dean.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough over the eastern CONUS is forecast to continue moving eastward on Friday. Upstream, an upper-level trough will continue to amplify across the West, as a deep-layer cyclone moves southeastward just offshore of the central CA coast. Between the eastern and western troughs, multiple low-amplitude shortwaves will move northeastward across parts of the central/northern Plains and upper Midwest. The greatest relative thunderstorm potential is currently expected over parts of the Midwest/Mid-Upper MS Valley within a warm-advection regime, and near the central CA coast in association with the offshore cyclone. ...Parts of the Midwest/Mid-Upper MS Valley... Modest low-level moisture return (surface dewpoints in the low 50s F) is expected across parts of MO/IA into western/northern IL, as a weak surface low moves from the east-central Great Plains toward southern WI. Modest MLCAPE (increasing to near/above 500 J/kg) may develop in the warm sector of the surface low, though capping is currently expected to limit the potential for surface-based storm development. Elevated thunderstorm development will become increasingly possible with time Friday evening, within a low-level warm-advection regime. While increasing effective shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, rather weak elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE generally 500-1000 J/kg) is currently expected to limit severe-hail potential. If elevated buoyancy trends larger than currently forecast, and/or if surface-based storm development becomes more of a concern, then low-end severe probabilities may eventually be needed. ..Dean.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough over the eastern CONUS is forecast to continue moving eastward on Friday. Upstream, an upper-level trough will continue to amplify across the West, as a deep-layer cyclone moves southeastward just offshore of the central CA coast. Between the eastern and western troughs, multiple low-amplitude shortwaves will move northeastward across parts of the central/northern Plains and upper Midwest. The greatest relative thunderstorm potential is currently expected over parts of the Midwest/Mid-Upper MS Valley within a warm-advection regime, and near the central CA coast in association with the offshore cyclone. ...Parts of the Midwest/Mid-Upper MS Valley... Modest low-level moisture return (surface dewpoints in the low 50s F) is expected across parts of MO/IA into western/northern IL, as a weak surface low moves from the east-central Great Plains toward southern WI. Modest MLCAPE (increasing to near/above 500 J/kg) may develop in the warm sector of the surface low, though capping is currently expected to limit the potential for surface-based storm development. Elevated thunderstorm development will become increasingly possible with time Friday evening, within a low-level warm-advection regime. While increasing effective shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, rather weak elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE generally 500-1000 J/kg) is currently expected to limit severe-hail potential. If elevated buoyancy trends larger than currently forecast, and/or if surface-based storm development becomes more of a concern, then low-end severe probabilities may eventually be needed. ..Dean.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough over the eastern CONUS is forecast to continue moving eastward on Friday. Upstream, an upper-level trough will continue to amplify across the West, as a deep-layer cyclone moves southeastward just offshore of the central CA coast. Between the eastern and western troughs, multiple low-amplitude shortwaves will move northeastward across parts of the central/northern Plains and upper Midwest. The greatest relative thunderstorm potential is currently expected over parts of the Midwest/Mid-Upper MS Valley within a warm-advection regime, and near the central CA coast in association with the offshore cyclone. ...Parts of the Midwest/Mid-Upper MS Valley... Modest low-level moisture return (surface dewpoints in the low 50s F) is expected across parts of MO/IA into western/northern IL, as a weak surface low moves from the east-central Great Plains toward southern WI. Modest MLCAPE (increasing to near/above 500 J/kg) may develop in the warm sector of the surface low, though capping is currently expected to limit the potential for surface-based storm development. Elevated thunderstorm development will become increasingly possible with time Friday evening, within a low-level warm-advection regime. While increasing effective shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, rather weak elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE generally 500-1000 J/kg) is currently expected to limit severe-hail potential. If elevated buoyancy trends larger than currently forecast, and/or if surface-based storm development becomes more of a concern, then low-end severe probabilities may eventually be needed. ..Dean.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...17z Update... No major changes have been assessed to the outlook. The Elevated area was expanded slightly south and east across parts of the TX Big Bend. Here, southerly surface winds of 15-20 mph will briefly overlap with RH below 20%. Brief elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given recent drying of fuels. ..Lyons.. 03/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Surface lee troughing will intensify over the southern High Plains today in tandem with an increase in mid-level flow/upper-level support. Dry downslope flow is expected across the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Across eastern New Mexico into western Texas, 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH atop modestly receptive fuels will support some wildfire spread potential, necessitating the maintenance of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...17z Update... No major changes have been assessed to the outlook. The Elevated area was expanded slightly south and east across parts of the TX Big Bend. Here, southerly surface winds of 15-20 mph will briefly overlap with RH below 20%. Brief elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given recent drying of fuels. ..Lyons.. 03/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Surface lee troughing will intensify over the southern High Plains today in tandem with an increase in mid-level flow/upper-level support. Dry downslope flow is expected across the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Across eastern New Mexico into western Texas, 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH atop modestly receptive fuels will support some wildfire spread potential, necessitating the maintenance of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...17z Update... No major changes have been assessed to the outlook. The Elevated area was expanded slightly south and east across parts of the TX Big Bend. Here, southerly surface winds of 15-20 mph will briefly overlap with RH below 20%. Brief elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given recent drying of fuels. ..Lyons.. 03/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Surface lee troughing will intensify over the southern High Plains today in tandem with an increase in mid-level flow/upper-level support. Dry downslope flow is expected across the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Across eastern New Mexico into western Texas, 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH atop modestly receptive fuels will support some wildfire spread potential, necessitating the maintenance of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...17z Update... No major changes have been assessed to the outlook. The Elevated area was expanded slightly south and east across parts of the TX Big Bend. Here, southerly surface winds of 15-20 mph will briefly overlap with RH below 20%. Brief elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given recent drying of fuels. ..Lyons.. 03/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Surface lee troughing will intensify over the southern High Plains today in tandem with an increase in mid-level flow/upper-level support. Dry downslope flow is expected across the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Across eastern New Mexico into western Texas, 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH atop modestly receptive fuels will support some wildfire spread potential, necessitating the maintenance of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...17z Update... No major changes have been assessed to the outlook. The Elevated area was expanded slightly south and east across parts of the TX Big Bend. Here, southerly surface winds of 15-20 mph will briefly overlap with RH below 20%. Brief elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given recent drying of fuels. ..Lyons.. 03/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Surface lee troughing will intensify over the southern High Plains today in tandem with an increase in mid-level flow/upper-level support. Dry downslope flow is expected across the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Across eastern New Mexico into western Texas, 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH atop modestly receptive fuels will support some wildfire spread potential, necessitating the maintenance of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...17z Update... No major changes have been assessed to the outlook. The Elevated area was expanded slightly south and east across parts of the TX Big Bend. Here, southerly surface winds of 15-20 mph will briefly overlap with RH below 20%. Brief elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given recent drying of fuels. ..Lyons.. 03/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Surface lee troughing will intensify over the southern High Plains today in tandem with an increase in mid-level flow/upper-level support. Dry downslope flow is expected across the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Across eastern New Mexico into western Texas, 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH atop modestly receptive fuels will support some wildfire spread potential, necessitating the maintenance of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. Relatively dry and stable conditions are expected today over most of the CONUS, with only a few areas of thunderstorm activity. A cold front will depart the Carolinas and FL region this afternoon, with associated showers and thunderstorms moving offshore by mid-afternoon. Other scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may occur over parts of the northwestern US where cold mid-level temperatures and marginal afternoon instability will be present. No severe storms are anticipated in either region. ..Hart/Thornton.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. Relatively dry and stable conditions are expected today over most of the CONUS, with only a few areas of thunderstorm activity. A cold front will depart the Carolinas and FL region this afternoon, with associated showers and thunderstorms moving offshore by mid-afternoon. Other scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may occur over parts of the northwestern US where cold mid-level temperatures and marginal afternoon instability will be present. No severe storms are anticipated in either region. ..Hart/Thornton.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. Relatively dry and stable conditions are expected today over most of the CONUS, with only a few areas of thunderstorm activity. A cold front will depart the Carolinas and FL region this afternoon, with associated showers and thunderstorms moving offshore by mid-afternoon. Other scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may occur over parts of the northwestern US where cold mid-level temperatures and marginal afternoon instability will be present. No severe storms are anticipated in either region. ..Hart/Thornton.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. Relatively dry and stable conditions are expected today over most of the CONUS, with only a few areas of thunderstorm activity. A cold front will depart the Carolinas and FL region this afternoon, with associated showers and thunderstorms moving offshore by mid-afternoon. Other scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may occur over parts of the northwestern US where cold mid-level temperatures and marginal afternoon instability will be present. No severe storms are anticipated in either region. ..Hart/Thornton.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. Relatively dry and stable conditions are expected today over most of the CONUS, with only a few areas of thunderstorm activity. A cold front will depart the Carolinas and FL region this afternoon, with associated showers and thunderstorms moving offshore by mid-afternoon. Other scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may occur over parts of the northwestern US where cold mid-level temperatures and marginal afternoon instability will be present. No severe storms are anticipated in either region. ..Hart/Thornton.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. Relatively dry and stable conditions are expected today over most of the CONUS, with only a few areas of thunderstorm activity. A cold front will depart the Carolinas and FL region this afternoon, with associated showers and thunderstorms moving offshore by mid-afternoon. Other scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may occur over parts of the northwestern US where cold mid-level temperatures and marginal afternoon instability will be present. No severe storms are anticipated in either region. ..Hart/Thornton.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern will remain progressive, but deamplify temporarily, through the end of the period. This will occur as a strong synoptic-scale trough -- initially extending from northern ON across the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys to the central Gulf -- pivots preferentially faster eastward in its southern parts. By 12Z tomorrow, the synoptic trough will become negatively tilted from a low over James bay across the NYC area, then to a basal shortwave trough offshore from the Atlantic Coast farther south. That shortwave -- now apparent in moisture-channel imagery over the central Gulf Coast -- will follow a cold front offshore. Before that, however, a few more hours of general thunder potential are possible over coastal NC, including the sounds and Outer Banks. Isolated thunderstorms also are possible over much of the FL Peninsula amid favorable moisture along/ahead of the front, but with coverage limited by modest lift. Mid/upper-level winds and deep shear remain strong across the region, and a few cells moving through a diurnally destabilizing thermodynamic profile inland may produce strong gusts or small hail. Elsewhere, a large mid/upper-level cyclone was centered about 300 nm west of HQM, with synoptic trough extending south-southeastward offshore from the West Coast. As a strengthening shortwave trough south of the Gulf of Alaska digs southeastward to west of north- central CA through the period, the cyclone will weaken, but the larger-scale trough will be maintained. Several variably sized/ shaped shortwave perturbations were noted in downstream southwest flow over the Pacific Coast States and Intermountain West. Related large-scale ascent and steep midlevel lapse rates, with patches of weak but adequate low/middle-level moisture, will combine to support isolated general-thunder potential over parts of the West. This includes the Northwest Coast, where the cool but moist Pacific marine layer will underlie coldest air aloft. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern will remain progressive, but deamplify temporarily, through the end of the period. This will occur as a strong synoptic-scale trough -- initially extending from northern ON across the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys to the central Gulf -- pivots preferentially faster eastward in its southern parts. By 12Z tomorrow, the synoptic trough will become negatively tilted from a low over James bay across the NYC area, then to a basal shortwave trough offshore from the Atlantic Coast farther south. That shortwave -- now apparent in moisture-channel imagery over the central Gulf Coast -- will follow a cold front offshore. Before that, however, a few more hours of general thunder potential are possible over coastal NC, including the sounds and Outer Banks. Isolated thunderstorms also are possible over much of the FL Peninsula amid favorable moisture along/ahead of the front, but with coverage limited by modest lift. Mid/upper-level winds and deep shear remain strong across the region, and a few cells moving through a diurnally destabilizing thermodynamic profile inland may produce strong gusts or small hail. Elsewhere, a large mid/upper-level cyclone was centered about 300 nm west of HQM, with synoptic trough extending south-southeastward offshore from the West Coast. As a strengthening shortwave trough south of the Gulf of Alaska digs southeastward to west of north- central CA through the period, the cyclone will weaken, but the larger-scale trough will be maintained. Several variably sized/ shaped shortwave perturbations were noted in downstream southwest flow over the Pacific Coast States and Intermountain West. Related large-scale ascent and steep midlevel lapse rates, with patches of weak but adequate low/middle-level moisture, will combine to support isolated general-thunder potential over parts of the West. This includes the Northwest Coast, where the cool but moist Pacific marine layer will underlie coldest air aloft. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern will remain progressive, but deamplify temporarily, through the end of the period. This will occur as a strong synoptic-scale trough -- initially extending from northern ON across the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys to the central Gulf -- pivots preferentially faster eastward in its southern parts. By 12Z tomorrow, the synoptic trough will become negatively tilted from a low over James bay across the NYC area, then to a basal shortwave trough offshore from the Atlantic Coast farther south. That shortwave -- now apparent in moisture-channel imagery over the central Gulf Coast -- will follow a cold front offshore. Before that, however, a few more hours of general thunder potential are possible over coastal NC, including the sounds and Outer Banks. Isolated thunderstorms also are possible over much of the FL Peninsula amid favorable moisture along/ahead of the front, but with coverage limited by modest lift. Mid/upper-level winds and deep shear remain strong across the region, and a few cells moving through a diurnally destabilizing thermodynamic profile inland may produce strong gusts or small hail. Elsewhere, a large mid/upper-level cyclone was centered about 300 nm west of HQM, with synoptic trough extending south-southeastward offshore from the West Coast. As a strengthening shortwave trough south of the Gulf of Alaska digs southeastward to west of north- central CA through the period, the cyclone will weaken, but the larger-scale trough will be maintained. Several variably sized/ shaped shortwave perturbations were noted in downstream southwest flow over the Pacific Coast States and Intermountain West. Related large-scale ascent and steep midlevel lapse rates, with patches of weak but adequate low/middle-level moisture, will combine to support isolated general-thunder potential over parts of the West. This includes the Northwest Coast, where the cool but moist Pacific marine layer will underlie coldest air aloft. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern will remain progressive, but deamplify temporarily, through the end of the period. This will occur as a strong synoptic-scale trough -- initially extending from northern ON across the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys to the central Gulf -- pivots preferentially faster eastward in its southern parts. By 12Z tomorrow, the synoptic trough will become negatively tilted from a low over James bay across the NYC area, then to a basal shortwave trough offshore from the Atlantic Coast farther south. That shortwave -- now apparent in moisture-channel imagery over the central Gulf Coast -- will follow a cold front offshore. Before that, however, a few more hours of general thunder potential are possible over coastal NC, including the sounds and Outer Banks. Isolated thunderstorms also are possible over much of the FL Peninsula amid favorable moisture along/ahead of the front, but with coverage limited by modest lift. Mid/upper-level winds and deep shear remain strong across the region, and a few cells moving through a diurnally destabilizing thermodynamic profile inland may produce strong gusts or small hail. Elsewhere, a large mid/upper-level cyclone was centered about 300 nm west of HQM, with synoptic trough extending south-southeastward offshore from the West Coast. As a strengthening shortwave trough south of the Gulf of Alaska digs southeastward to west of north- central CA through the period, the cyclone will weaken, but the larger-scale trough will be maintained. Several variably sized/ shaped shortwave perturbations were noted in downstream southwest flow over the Pacific Coast States and Intermountain West. Related large-scale ascent and steep midlevel lapse rates, with patches of weak but adequate low/middle-level moisture, will combine to support isolated general-thunder potential over parts of the West. This includes the Northwest Coast, where the cool but moist Pacific marine layer will underlie coldest air aloft. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 03/28/2024 Read more