Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT FROM EASTERN IA INTO NORTHERN IL... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe hail is possible tonight from eastern Iowa into northern Illinois. ...Synopsis... A deep midlevel low over the eastern Pacific will approach the central CA coast tonight, as an associated baroclinic zone spreads slowly eastward/inland this afternoon/evening. Weak buoyancy within the baroclinic zone could support some embedded convection with isolated lightning flashes. A downstream speed max over CO this morning will move toward the mid MS Valley overnight, and will help maintain lee cyclogenesis today across western KS and a weak/mobile cyclone into IA/IL tonight. ...Eastern IA/northern IL tonight... A modifying Gulf of Mexico air mass is returning northward into the southern Plains, to the east of the lee cyclone in western KS. Some increase in low-level moisture in a zone of low-level warm advection, beneath midlevel lapse rates near 7.5 C/km, will support elevated thunderstorm development early tonight over eastern IA and storms will subsequently spread eastward over northern IL (immediately in advance of the weak surface cyclone and ejecting midlevel speed max). MUCAPE near 1000 J/kg, relatively cool midlevel temperatures (near -18 C at 500 mb) and modest hodograph length/curvature may support some low-end/elevated supercells capable of producing isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter before storm coverage increases and storm intensity decreases late tonight. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 03/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe hail is possible over portions of the Midwest tonight. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern will feature strong, progressive troughs -- each with an accompanying synoptic-scale cyclone -- near the East and West Coasts, and low-amplitude, large-scale ridging in between. The western low -- quite prominent in moisture-channel imagery now west of Cape Mendocino -- should move southeastward and stay offshore from CA through the period. However, downstream southwest flow and several embedded vorticity lobes/shortwaves will move over the Intermountain West. Portions of the central and northern Rockies, as well as the Pacific Coast, should reside beneath enough midlevel cooling/instability and low/middle-level moisture to support isolated thunderstorms. Downstream, a leading shortwave trough is evident from southern SK across eastern MT to central WY. This feature should move eastward across the northern Plains today, reaching the eastern Dakotas by 00Z, and crossing the upper Mississippi Valley around 12Z tomorrow. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a frontal-wave low near HLC, with short cold front southwestward over western KS, and warm front across northern MO, south-central IL, to near CVG, and northern WV. Another low was apparent over southeastern SK, with a trough connecting these lows across the western Dakotas and central NE. By 00Z, the southern low should reach southwestern/central IA, with cold front southwestward over southwestern KS, and warm front across central IL to southern IN. A trough -- with some reinforcement related to the mid/upper perturbation -- still should extend from that low to the northern one, by then near the southern SK/MB line. By 12Z, the southern low should approach the southwestern shore of Lake Michigan (near the IL/WI line), with cold front to northern MO, northern OK and the TX Panhandle. The warm front should extend from the low across southwestern Lower MI to western/southern OH. ...Midwest... During the day, the central Plains to Midwest should remain capped for substantial, surface-based convection, the result of a combination of advection of EML air aloft from higher terrain in the West, with insufficient moisture and lift. However, with continued moist/warm advection in the increasing LLJ, and the approach of large-scale DCVA/lift aloft related to the mid/upper trough, convective potential will increase this evening north of the warm front over parts of IA/IL. Isentropic lift to LFC will occur as parcels saturate in the 700-850-mb layer and MUCINH erodes rather quickly. Resulting elevated thunderstorms should shift eastward into southern WI and central/northern IL, then late overnight, the Michiana/northwest OH area. Greatest inflow-layer buoyancy and hail potential should be with relatively discrete cells in the early stage of the convective process across IA/IL, then mainly the southern part of the thunderstorm area as it crosses IL. Expect MUCAPE of around 500-700 J/kg developing from southern IA to central IL, decreasing to under 300 J/kg over much of southern WI. In forecast soundings, effective-shear magnitudes vary a lot with CAPE depth, but generally should be in a 30-40 kt range to support some thunderstorm organization. Locally strong gusts cannot be ruled out either, given a relatively dry subcloud layer present in forecast soundings, and potential for downdraft winds to penetrate a relatively shallow, near-surface stable layer. However, severe-gust potential still appears too uncertain and unfocused for a wind area to be added at this time. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 03/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe hail is possible over portions of the Midwest tonight. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern will feature strong, progressive troughs -- each with an accompanying synoptic-scale cyclone -- near the East and West Coasts, and low-amplitude, large-scale ridging in between. The western low -- quite prominent in moisture-channel imagery now west of Cape Mendocino -- should move southeastward and stay offshore from CA through the period. However, downstream southwest flow and several embedded vorticity lobes/shortwaves will move over the Intermountain West. Portions of the central and northern Rockies, as well as the Pacific Coast, should reside beneath enough midlevel cooling/instability and low/middle-level moisture to support isolated thunderstorms. Downstream, a leading shortwave trough is evident from southern SK across eastern MT to central WY. This feature should move eastward across the northern Plains today, reaching the eastern Dakotas by 00Z, and crossing the upper Mississippi Valley around 12Z tomorrow. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a frontal-wave low near HLC, with short cold front southwestward over western KS, and warm front across northern MO, south-central IL, to near CVG, and northern WV. Another low was apparent over southeastern SK, with a trough connecting these lows across the western Dakotas and central NE. By 00Z, the southern low should reach southwestern/central IA, with cold front southwestward over southwestern KS, and warm front across central IL to southern IN. A trough -- with some reinforcement related to the mid/upper perturbation -- still should extend from that low to the northern one, by then near the southern SK/MB line. By 12Z, the southern low should approach the southwestern shore of Lake Michigan (near the IL/WI line), with cold front to northern MO, northern OK and the TX Panhandle. The warm front should extend from the low across southwestern Lower MI to western/southern OH. ...Midwest... During the day, the central Plains to Midwest should remain capped for substantial, surface-based convection, the result of a combination of advection of EML air aloft from higher terrain in the West, with insufficient moisture and lift. However, with continued moist/warm advection in the increasing LLJ, and the approach of large-scale DCVA/lift aloft related to the mid/upper trough, convective potential will increase this evening north of the warm front over parts of IA/IL. Isentropic lift to LFC will occur as parcels saturate in the 700-850-mb layer and MUCINH erodes rather quickly. Resulting elevated thunderstorms should shift eastward into southern WI and central/northern IL, then late overnight, the Michiana/northwest OH area. Greatest inflow-layer buoyancy and hail potential should be with relatively discrete cells in the early stage of the convective process across IA/IL, then mainly the southern part of the thunderstorm area as it crosses IL. Expect MUCAPE of around 500-700 J/kg developing from southern IA to central IL, decreasing to under 300 J/kg over much of southern WI. In forecast soundings, effective-shear magnitudes vary a lot with CAPE depth, but generally should be in a 30-40 kt range to support some thunderstorm organization. Locally strong gusts cannot be ruled out either, given a relatively dry subcloud layer present in forecast soundings, and potential for downdraft winds to penetrate a relatively shallow, near-surface stable layer. However, severe-gust potential still appears too uncertain and unfocused for a wind area to be added at this time. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 03/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe hail is possible over portions of the Midwest tonight. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern will feature strong, progressive troughs -- each with an accompanying synoptic-scale cyclone -- near the East and West Coasts, and low-amplitude, large-scale ridging in between. The western low -- quite prominent in moisture-channel imagery now west of Cape Mendocino -- should move southeastward and stay offshore from CA through the period. However, downstream southwest flow and several embedded vorticity lobes/shortwaves will move over the Intermountain West. Portions of the central and northern Rockies, as well as the Pacific Coast, should reside beneath enough midlevel cooling/instability and low/middle-level moisture to support isolated thunderstorms. Downstream, a leading shortwave trough is evident from southern SK across eastern MT to central WY. This feature should move eastward across the northern Plains today, reaching the eastern Dakotas by 00Z, and crossing the upper Mississippi Valley around 12Z tomorrow. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a frontal-wave low near HLC, with short cold front southwestward over western KS, and warm front across northern MO, south-central IL, to near CVG, and northern WV. Another low was apparent over southeastern SK, with a trough connecting these lows across the western Dakotas and central NE. By 00Z, the southern low should reach southwestern/central IA, with cold front southwestward over southwestern KS, and warm front across central IL to southern IN. A trough -- with some reinforcement related to the mid/upper perturbation -- still should extend from that low to the northern one, by then near the southern SK/MB line. By 12Z, the southern low should approach the southwestern shore of Lake Michigan (near the IL/WI line), with cold front to northern MO, northern OK and the TX Panhandle. The warm front should extend from the low across southwestern Lower MI to western/southern OH. ...Midwest... During the day, the central Plains to Midwest should remain capped for substantial, surface-based convection, the result of a combination of advection of EML air aloft from higher terrain in the West, with insufficient moisture and lift. However, with continued moist/warm advection in the increasing LLJ, and the approach of large-scale DCVA/lift aloft related to the mid/upper trough, convective potential will increase this evening north of the warm front over parts of IA/IL. Isentropic lift to LFC will occur as parcels saturate in the 700-850-mb layer and MUCINH erodes rather quickly. Resulting elevated thunderstorms should shift eastward into southern WI and central/northern IL, then late overnight, the Michiana/northwest OH area. Greatest inflow-layer buoyancy and hail potential should be with relatively discrete cells in the early stage of the convective process across IA/IL, then mainly the southern part of the thunderstorm area as it crosses IL. Expect MUCAPE of around 500-700 J/kg developing from southern IA to central IL, decreasing to under 300 J/kg over much of southern WI. In forecast soundings, effective-shear magnitudes vary a lot with CAPE depth, but generally should be in a 30-40 kt range to support some thunderstorm organization. Locally strong gusts cannot be ruled out either, given a relatively dry subcloud layer present in forecast soundings, and potential for downdraft winds to penetrate a relatively shallow, near-surface stable layer. However, severe-gust potential still appears too uncertain and unfocused for a wind area to be added at this time. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 03/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe hail is possible over portions of the Midwest tonight. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern will feature strong, progressive troughs -- each with an accompanying synoptic-scale cyclone -- near the East and West Coasts, and low-amplitude, large-scale ridging in between. The western low -- quite prominent in moisture-channel imagery now west of Cape Mendocino -- should move southeastward and stay offshore from CA through the period. However, downstream southwest flow and several embedded vorticity lobes/shortwaves will move over the Intermountain West. Portions of the central and northern Rockies, as well as the Pacific Coast, should reside beneath enough midlevel cooling/instability and low/middle-level moisture to support isolated thunderstorms. Downstream, a leading shortwave trough is evident from southern SK across eastern MT to central WY. This feature should move eastward across the northern Plains today, reaching the eastern Dakotas by 00Z, and crossing the upper Mississippi Valley around 12Z tomorrow. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a frontal-wave low near HLC, with short cold front southwestward over western KS, and warm front across northern MO, south-central IL, to near CVG, and northern WV. Another low was apparent over southeastern SK, with a trough connecting these lows across the western Dakotas and central NE. By 00Z, the southern low should reach southwestern/central IA, with cold front southwestward over southwestern KS, and warm front across central IL to southern IN. A trough -- with some reinforcement related to the mid/upper perturbation -- still should extend from that low to the northern one, by then near the southern SK/MB line. By 12Z, the southern low should approach the southwestern shore of Lake Michigan (near the IL/WI line), with cold front to northern MO, northern OK and the TX Panhandle. The warm front should extend from the low across southwestern Lower MI to western/southern OH. ...Midwest... During the day, the central Plains to Midwest should remain capped for substantial, surface-based convection, the result of a combination of advection of EML air aloft from higher terrain in the West, with insufficient moisture and lift. However, with continued moist/warm advection in the increasing LLJ, and the approach of large-scale DCVA/lift aloft related to the mid/upper trough, convective potential will increase this evening north of the warm front over parts of IA/IL. Isentropic lift to LFC will occur as parcels saturate in the 700-850-mb layer and MUCINH erodes rather quickly. Resulting elevated thunderstorms should shift eastward into southern WI and central/northern IL, then late overnight, the Michiana/northwest OH area. Greatest inflow-layer buoyancy and hail potential should be with relatively discrete cells in the early stage of the convective process across IA/IL, then mainly the southern part of the thunderstorm area as it crosses IL. Expect MUCAPE of around 500-700 J/kg developing from southern IA to central IL, decreasing to under 300 J/kg over much of southern WI. In forecast soundings, effective-shear magnitudes vary a lot with CAPE depth, but generally should be in a 30-40 kt range to support some thunderstorm organization. Locally strong gusts cannot be ruled out either, given a relatively dry subcloud layer present in forecast soundings, and potential for downdraft winds to penetrate a relatively shallow, near-surface stable layer. However, severe-gust potential still appears too uncertain and unfocused for a wind area to be added at this time. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 03/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe hail is possible over portions of the Midwest tonight. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern will feature strong, progressive troughs -- each with an accompanying synoptic-scale cyclone -- near the East and West Coasts, and low-amplitude, large-scale ridging in between. The western low -- quite prominent in moisture-channel imagery now west of Cape Mendocino -- should move southeastward and stay offshore from CA through the period. However, downstream southwest flow and several embedded vorticity lobes/shortwaves will move over the Intermountain West. Portions of the central and northern Rockies, as well as the Pacific Coast, should reside beneath enough midlevel cooling/instability and low/middle-level moisture to support isolated thunderstorms. Downstream, a leading shortwave trough is evident from southern SK across eastern MT to central WY. This feature should move eastward across the northern Plains today, reaching the eastern Dakotas by 00Z, and crossing the upper Mississippi Valley around 12Z tomorrow. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a frontal-wave low near HLC, with short cold front southwestward over western KS, and warm front across northern MO, south-central IL, to near CVG, and northern WV. Another low was apparent over southeastern SK, with a trough connecting these lows across the western Dakotas and central NE. By 00Z, the southern low should reach southwestern/central IA, with cold front southwestward over southwestern KS, and warm front across central IL to southern IN. A trough -- with some reinforcement related to the mid/upper perturbation -- still should extend from that low to the northern one, by then near the southern SK/MB line. By 12Z, the southern low should approach the southwestern shore of Lake Michigan (near the IL/WI line), with cold front to northern MO, northern OK and the TX Panhandle. The warm front should extend from the low across southwestern Lower MI to western/southern OH. ...Midwest... During the day, the central Plains to Midwest should remain capped for substantial, surface-based convection, the result of a combination of advection of EML air aloft from higher terrain in the West, with insufficient moisture and lift. However, with continued moist/warm advection in the increasing LLJ, and the approach of large-scale DCVA/lift aloft related to the mid/upper trough, convective potential will increase this evening north of the warm front over parts of IA/IL. Isentropic lift to LFC will occur as parcels saturate in the 700-850-mb layer and MUCINH erodes rather quickly. Resulting elevated thunderstorms should shift eastward into southern WI and central/northern IL, then late overnight, the Michiana/northwest OH area. Greatest inflow-layer buoyancy and hail potential should be with relatively discrete cells in the early stage of the convective process across IA/IL, then mainly the southern part of the thunderstorm area as it crosses IL. Expect MUCAPE of around 500-700 J/kg developing from southern IA to central IL, decreasing to under 300 J/kg over much of southern WI. In forecast soundings, effective-shear magnitudes vary a lot with CAPE depth, but generally should be in a 30-40 kt range to support some thunderstorm organization. Locally strong gusts cannot be ruled out either, given a relatively dry subcloud layer present in forecast soundings, and potential for downdraft winds to penetrate a relatively shallow, near-surface stable layer. However, severe-gust potential still appears too uncertain and unfocused for a wind area to be added at this time. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 03/29/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0519 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the Four Corners region on Monday, as strong southwest mid-level flow remains in place from the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. Early in the day, an east-to-west boundary is forecast from northern Missouri eastward into the Ohio Valley, along which will likely focus elevated thunderstorm development from Monday morning into the afternoon. Large hail could occur with some of the more intense storms. The severe threat is expected to persist into the evening, and possibly into the overnight period as an MCS moves into the region from the west-southwest Further southwest, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place from northeast Texas into eastern Oklahoma and eastern Kansas, extending eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. A surface low is forecast to develop over the central Plains, as a 75 to 90 knot mid-level jet ejects northeastward across the southern Plains. As the nose of the jet moves over the moist and unstable airmass during the afternoon and evening, widespread severe weather is expected to occur. Strong deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates are forecast to be favorable for a large-hail threat with supercells across parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas eastward into the lower Missouri Valley. Tornadoes and wind damage will also be possible, especially as the low-level jet strengthens and an MCS organizes across the region during the evening. The MCS is expected to remain severe into the overnight period, moving eastward into the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...Tuesday/Day 5... The upper-level system is forecast to move eastward into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. An associated cold front will likely move quickly eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley early in the day. Ahead of the front, a moist and unstable airmass is expected to be in place by midday, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys in the afternoon. The mid-level jet is forecast to move into the Ohio Valley by late afternoon, suggesting that a widespread severe threat will be possible. Strong deep-layer shear and lift associated with the jet would be favorable for supercells with a threat for wind damage, large hail and some tornadoes. The severe threat is forecast to extend southward into the Tennessee Valley, and eastward into the Mid-Atlantic, where scattered severe storms will be possible within a moist and unstable airmass. ...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8... An upper-level low is forecast to move through the Ohio Valley on Wednesday as a cold front advances eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard. A severe threat would be possible ahead of the front during the day from the Mid-Atlantic southward into the eastern Carolinas. However, the timing of the front and the magnitude of any severe potential are uncertain at this time. Model consensus suggests that the severe threat should be less widespread than on previous days further west. On Thursday and Friday, a large area of high pressure is forecast to move into the central and eastern U.S. This will reduce the potential for thunderstorm development across most of the U.S. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0519 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the Four Corners region on Monday, as strong southwest mid-level flow remains in place from the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. Early in the day, an east-to-west boundary is forecast from northern Missouri eastward into the Ohio Valley, along which will likely focus elevated thunderstorm development from Monday morning into the afternoon. Large hail could occur with some of the more intense storms. The severe threat is expected to persist into the evening, and possibly into the overnight period as an MCS moves into the region from the west-southwest Further southwest, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place from northeast Texas into eastern Oklahoma and eastern Kansas, extending eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. A surface low is forecast to develop over the central Plains, as a 75 to 90 knot mid-level jet ejects northeastward across the southern Plains. As the nose of the jet moves over the moist and unstable airmass during the afternoon and evening, widespread severe weather is expected to occur. Strong deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates are forecast to be favorable for a large-hail threat with supercells across parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas eastward into the lower Missouri Valley. Tornadoes and wind damage will also be possible, especially as the low-level jet strengthens and an MCS organizes across the region during the evening. The MCS is expected to remain severe into the overnight period, moving eastward into the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...Tuesday/Day 5... The upper-level system is forecast to move eastward into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. An associated cold front will likely move quickly eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley early in the day. Ahead of the front, a moist and unstable airmass is expected to be in place by midday, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys in the afternoon. The mid-level jet is forecast to move into the Ohio Valley by late afternoon, suggesting that a widespread severe threat will be possible. Strong deep-layer shear and lift associated with the jet would be favorable for supercells with a threat for wind damage, large hail and some tornadoes. The severe threat is forecast to extend southward into the Tennessee Valley, and eastward into the Mid-Atlantic, where scattered severe storms will be possible within a moist and unstable airmass. ...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8... An upper-level low is forecast to move through the Ohio Valley on Wednesday as a cold front advances eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard. A severe threat would be possible ahead of the front during the day from the Mid-Atlantic southward into the eastern Carolinas. However, the timing of the front and the magnitude of any severe potential are uncertain at this time. Model consensus suggests that the severe threat should be less widespread than on previous days further west. On Thursday and Friday, a large area of high pressure is forecast to move into the central and eastern U.S. This will reduce the potential for thunderstorm development across most of the U.S. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0519 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the Four Corners region on Monday, as strong southwest mid-level flow remains in place from the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. Early in the day, an east-to-west boundary is forecast from northern Missouri eastward into the Ohio Valley, along which will likely focus elevated thunderstorm development from Monday morning into the afternoon. Large hail could occur with some of the more intense storms. The severe threat is expected to persist into the evening, and possibly into the overnight period as an MCS moves into the region from the west-southwest Further southwest, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place from northeast Texas into eastern Oklahoma and eastern Kansas, extending eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. A surface low is forecast to develop over the central Plains, as a 75 to 90 knot mid-level jet ejects northeastward across the southern Plains. As the nose of the jet moves over the moist and unstable airmass during the afternoon and evening, widespread severe weather is expected to occur. Strong deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates are forecast to be favorable for a large-hail threat with supercells across parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas eastward into the lower Missouri Valley. Tornadoes and wind damage will also be possible, especially as the low-level jet strengthens and an MCS organizes across the region during the evening. The MCS is expected to remain severe into the overnight period, moving eastward into the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...Tuesday/Day 5... The upper-level system is forecast to move eastward into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. An associated cold front will likely move quickly eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley early in the day. Ahead of the front, a moist and unstable airmass is expected to be in place by midday, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys in the afternoon. The mid-level jet is forecast to move into the Ohio Valley by late afternoon, suggesting that a widespread severe threat will be possible. Strong deep-layer shear and lift associated with the jet would be favorable for supercells with a threat for wind damage, large hail and some tornadoes. The severe threat is forecast to extend southward into the Tennessee Valley, and eastward into the Mid-Atlantic, where scattered severe storms will be possible within a moist and unstable airmass. ...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8... An upper-level low is forecast to move through the Ohio Valley on Wednesday as a cold front advances eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard. A severe threat would be possible ahead of the front during the day from the Mid-Atlantic southward into the eastern Carolinas. However, the timing of the front and the magnitude of any severe potential are uncertain at this time. Model consensus suggests that the severe threat should be less widespread than on previous days further west. On Thursday and Friday, a large area of high pressure is forecast to move into the central and eastern U.S. This will reduce the potential for thunderstorm development across most of the U.S. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0519 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the Four Corners region on Monday, as strong southwest mid-level flow remains in place from the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. Early in the day, an east-to-west boundary is forecast from northern Missouri eastward into the Ohio Valley, along which will likely focus elevated thunderstorm development from Monday morning into the afternoon. Large hail could occur with some of the more intense storms. The severe threat is expected to persist into the evening, and possibly into the overnight period as an MCS moves into the region from the west-southwest Further southwest, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place from northeast Texas into eastern Oklahoma and eastern Kansas, extending eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. A surface low is forecast to develop over the central Plains, as a 75 to 90 knot mid-level jet ejects northeastward across the southern Plains. As the nose of the jet moves over the moist and unstable airmass during the afternoon and evening, widespread severe weather is expected to occur. Strong deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates are forecast to be favorable for a large-hail threat with supercells across parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas eastward into the lower Missouri Valley. Tornadoes and wind damage will also be possible, especially as the low-level jet strengthens and an MCS organizes across the region during the evening. The MCS is expected to remain severe into the overnight period, moving eastward into the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...Tuesday/Day 5... The upper-level system is forecast to move eastward into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. An associated cold front will likely move quickly eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley early in the day. Ahead of the front, a moist and unstable airmass is expected to be in place by midday, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys in the afternoon. The mid-level jet is forecast to move into the Ohio Valley by late afternoon, suggesting that a widespread severe threat will be possible. Strong deep-layer shear and lift associated with the jet would be favorable for supercells with a threat for wind damage, large hail and some tornadoes. The severe threat is forecast to extend southward into the Tennessee Valley, and eastward into the Mid-Atlantic, where scattered severe storms will be possible within a moist and unstable airmass. ...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8... An upper-level low is forecast to move through the Ohio Valley on Wednesday as a cold front advances eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard. A severe threat would be possible ahead of the front during the day from the Mid-Atlantic southward into the eastern Carolinas. However, the timing of the front and the magnitude of any severe potential are uncertain at this time. Model consensus suggests that the severe threat should be less widespread than on previous days further west. On Thursday and Friday, a large area of high pressure is forecast to move into the central and eastern U.S. This will reduce the potential for thunderstorm development across most of the U.S. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the Four Corners region on Monday, as strong southwest mid-level flow remains in place from the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. Early in the day, an east-to-west boundary is forecast from northern Missouri eastward into the Ohio Valley, along which will likely focus elevated thunderstorm development from Monday morning into the afternoon. Large hail could occur with some of the more intense storms. The severe threat is expected to persist into the evening, and possibly into the overnight period as an MCS moves into the region from the west-southwest Further southwest, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place from northeast Texas into eastern Oklahoma and eastern Kansas, extending eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. A surface low is forecast to develop over the central Plains, as a 75 to 90 knot mid-level jet ejects northeastward across the southern Plains. As the nose of the jet moves over the moist and unstable airmass during the afternoon and evening, widespread severe weather is expected to occur. Strong deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates are forecast to be favorable for a large-hail threat with supercells across parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas eastward into the lower Missouri Valley. Tornadoes and wind damage will also be possible, especially as the low-level jet strengthens and an MCS organizes across the region during the evening. The MCS is expected to remain severe into the overnight period, moving eastward into the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...Tuesday/Day 5... The upper-level system is forecast to move eastward into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. An associated cold front will likely move quickly eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley early in the day. Ahead of the front, a moist and unstable airmass is expected to be in place by midday, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys in the afternoon. The mid-level jet is forecast to move into the Ohio Valley by late afternoon, suggesting that a widespread severe threat will be possible. Strong deep-layer shear and lift associated with the jet would be favorable for supercells with a threat for wind damage, large hail and some tornadoes. The severe threat is forecast to extend southward into the Tennessee Valley, and eastward into the Mid-Atlantic, where scattered severe storms will be possible within a moist and unstable airmass. ...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8... An upper-level low is forecast to move through the Ohio Valley on Wednesday as a cold front advances eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard. A severe threat would be possible ahead of the front during the day from the Mid-Atlantic southward into the eastern Carolinas. However, the timing of the front and the magnitude of any severe potential are uncertain at this time. Model consensus suggests that the severe threat should be less widespread than on previous days further west. On Thursday and Friday, a large area of high pressure is forecast to move into the central and eastern U.S. This will reduce the potential for thunderstorm development across most of the U.S. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat with a potential for hail, is expected Sunday and Sunday night from the lower Missouri Valley eastward into the mid to upper Misssissippi and Ohio Valleys. ...Lower Missouri Valley/Mid To Upper Mississippi and Ohio Valleys... At mid-levels, an anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place on Sunday across much of the central and eastern U.S. Subtle shortwave troughs could move eastward from the Lower Missouri Valley into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is forecast in the lower Missouri Valley, with a warm front extending eastward into the Ohio Valley. This front should be a focus for potentially strong thunderstorm development during the day and into the overnight period. Forecast soundings, along the east-to-west corridor from northern Missouri to central Indiana, have a sharp temperature inversion in place. Above the inversion, MUCAPE could reach the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km. This environment, along with effective shear in the 45 to 55 knot range, would support an isolated large hail threat with the stronger elevated storms. At this time, the exact area with the greatest hail threat is uncertain. Model guidance places the greatest potential somewhere from northern Missouri/southeast Iowa to central Indiana/southwest Ohio. For this outlook, will place a Marginal Risk along this corridor. Further west into the central Plains, an unstable airmass is forecast to develop by evening across much of Kansas and southeastern Nebraska due to low-level moisture advection. In spite of this, the airmass is expected to remain strongly capped due to a warm nose near 700 mb. Elevated thunderstorm development will be possible Sunday night as far west as parts of far southeast Nebraska and far northeast Kansas. However, further southwest the airmass is expected to be too capped for convective initiation. ..Broyles.. 03/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat with a potential for hail, is expected Sunday and Sunday night from the lower Missouri Valley eastward into the mid to upper Misssissippi and Ohio Valleys. ...Lower Missouri Valley/Mid To Upper Mississippi and Ohio Valleys... At mid-levels, an anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place on Sunday across much of the central and eastern U.S. Subtle shortwave troughs could move eastward from the Lower Missouri Valley into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is forecast in the lower Missouri Valley, with a warm front extending eastward into the Ohio Valley. This front should be a focus for potentially strong thunderstorm development during the day and into the overnight period. Forecast soundings, along the east-to-west corridor from northern Missouri to central Indiana, have a sharp temperature inversion in place. Above the inversion, MUCAPE could reach the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km. This environment, along with effective shear in the 45 to 55 knot range, would support an isolated large hail threat with the stronger elevated storms. At this time, the exact area with the greatest hail threat is uncertain. Model guidance places the greatest potential somewhere from northern Missouri/southeast Iowa to central Indiana/southwest Ohio. For this outlook, will place a Marginal Risk along this corridor. Further west into the central Plains, an unstable airmass is forecast to develop by evening across much of Kansas and southeastern Nebraska due to low-level moisture advection. In spite of this, the airmass is expected to remain strongly capped due to a warm nose near 700 mb. Elevated thunderstorm development will be possible Sunday night as far west as parts of far southeast Nebraska and far northeast Kansas. However, further southwest the airmass is expected to be too capped for convective initiation. ..Broyles.. 03/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat with a potential for hail, is expected Sunday and Sunday night from the lower Missouri Valley eastward into the mid to upper Misssissippi and Ohio Valleys. ...Lower Missouri Valley/Mid To Upper Mississippi and Ohio Valleys... At mid-levels, an anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place on Sunday across much of the central and eastern U.S. Subtle shortwave troughs could move eastward from the Lower Missouri Valley into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is forecast in the lower Missouri Valley, with a warm front extending eastward into the Ohio Valley. This front should be a focus for potentially strong thunderstorm development during the day and into the overnight period. Forecast soundings, along the east-to-west corridor from northern Missouri to central Indiana, have a sharp temperature inversion in place. Above the inversion, MUCAPE could reach the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km. This environment, along with effective shear in the 45 to 55 knot range, would support an isolated large hail threat with the stronger elevated storms. At this time, the exact area with the greatest hail threat is uncertain. Model guidance places the greatest potential somewhere from northern Missouri/southeast Iowa to central Indiana/southwest Ohio. For this outlook, will place a Marginal Risk along this corridor. Further west into the central Plains, an unstable airmass is forecast to develop by evening across much of Kansas and southeastern Nebraska due to low-level moisture advection. In spite of this, the airmass is expected to remain strongly capped due to a warm nose near 700 mb. Elevated thunderstorm development will be possible Sunday night as far west as parts of far southeast Nebraska and far northeast Kansas. However, further southwest the airmass is expected to be too capped for convective initiation. ..Broyles.. 03/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat with a potential for hail, is expected Sunday and Sunday night from the lower Missouri Valley eastward into the mid to upper Misssissippi and Ohio Valleys. ...Lower Missouri Valley/Mid To Upper Mississippi and Ohio Valleys... At mid-levels, an anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place on Sunday across much of the central and eastern U.S. Subtle shortwave troughs could move eastward from the Lower Missouri Valley into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is forecast in the lower Missouri Valley, with a warm front extending eastward into the Ohio Valley. This front should be a focus for potentially strong thunderstorm development during the day and into the overnight period. Forecast soundings, along the east-to-west corridor from northern Missouri to central Indiana, have a sharp temperature inversion in place. Above the inversion, MUCAPE could reach the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km. This environment, along with effective shear in the 45 to 55 knot range, would support an isolated large hail threat with the stronger elevated storms. At this time, the exact area with the greatest hail threat is uncertain. Model guidance places the greatest potential somewhere from northern Missouri/southeast Iowa to central Indiana/southwest Ohio. For this outlook, will place a Marginal Risk along this corridor. Further west into the central Plains, an unstable airmass is forecast to develop by evening across much of Kansas and southeastern Nebraska due to low-level moisture advection. In spite of this, the airmass is expected to remain strongly capped due to a warm nose near 700 mb. Elevated thunderstorm development will be possible Sunday night as far west as parts of far southeast Nebraska and far northeast Kansas. However, further southwest the airmass is expected to be too capped for convective initiation. ..Broyles.. 03/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat with a potential for hail, is expected Sunday and Sunday night from the lower Missouri Valley eastward into the mid to upper Misssissippi and Ohio Valleys. ...Lower Missouri Valley/Mid To Upper Mississippi and Ohio Valleys... At mid-levels, an anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place on Sunday across much of the central and eastern U.S. Subtle shortwave troughs could move eastward from the Lower Missouri Valley into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is forecast in the lower Missouri Valley, with a warm front extending eastward into the Ohio Valley. This front should be a focus for potentially strong thunderstorm development during the day and into the overnight period. Forecast soundings, along the east-to-west corridor from northern Missouri to central Indiana, have a sharp temperature inversion in place. Above the inversion, MUCAPE could reach the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km. This environment, along with effective shear in the 45 to 55 knot range, would support an isolated large hail threat with the stronger elevated storms. At this time, the exact area with the greatest hail threat is uncertain. Model guidance places the greatest potential somewhere from northern Missouri/southeast Iowa to central Indiana/southwest Ohio. For this outlook, will place a Marginal Risk along this corridor. Further west into the central Plains, an unstable airmass is forecast to develop by evening across much of Kansas and southeastern Nebraska due to low-level moisture advection. In spite of this, the airmass is expected to remain strongly capped due to a warm nose near 700 mb. Elevated thunderstorm development will be possible Sunday night as far west as parts of far southeast Nebraska and far northeast Kansas. However, further southwest the airmass is expected to be too capped for convective initiation. ..Broyles.. 03/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is not expected to develop across the continental U.S. on Saturday and Saturday night. ...DISCUSSION... Anticyclonic mid-level flow is forecast across much of the central and eastern U.S. on Saturday. Thunderstorms will be possible during the day into the evening from the Mid Mississippi Valley into the upper Ohio Valley, as a subtle shortwave trough moves eastward. Thunderstorms will also be possible across parts of California and Nevada, along the eastern edge of an upper-level system moving south-southeastward, offshore and parallel to the California coast. A severe threat is not expected to develop in any of these areas on Saturday and Saturday night. ..Broyles.. 03/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is not expected to develop across the continental U.S. on Saturday and Saturday night. ...DISCUSSION... Anticyclonic mid-level flow is forecast across much of the central and eastern U.S. on Saturday. Thunderstorms will be possible during the day into the evening from the Mid Mississippi Valley into the upper Ohio Valley, as a subtle shortwave trough moves eastward. Thunderstorms will also be possible across parts of California and Nevada, along the eastern edge of an upper-level system moving south-southeastward, offshore and parallel to the California coast. A severe threat is not expected to develop in any of these areas on Saturday and Saturday night. ..Broyles.. 03/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is not expected to develop across the continental U.S. on Saturday and Saturday night. ...DISCUSSION... Anticyclonic mid-level flow is forecast across much of the central and eastern U.S. on Saturday. Thunderstorms will be possible during the day into the evening from the Mid Mississippi Valley into the upper Ohio Valley, as a subtle shortwave trough moves eastward. Thunderstorms will also be possible across parts of California and Nevada, along the eastern edge of an upper-level system moving south-southeastward, offshore and parallel to the California coast. A severe threat is not expected to develop in any of these areas on Saturday and Saturday night. ..Broyles.. 03/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is not expected to develop across the continental U.S. on Saturday and Saturday night. ...DISCUSSION... Anticyclonic mid-level flow is forecast across much of the central and eastern U.S. on Saturday. Thunderstorms will be possible during the day into the evening from the Mid Mississippi Valley into the upper Ohio Valley, as a subtle shortwave trough moves eastward. Thunderstorms will also be possible across parts of California and Nevada, along the eastern edge of an upper-level system moving south-southeastward, offshore and parallel to the California coast. A severe threat is not expected to develop in any of these areas on Saturday and Saturday night. ..Broyles.. 03/29/2024 Read more