Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is not expected to develop across the continental U.S. on Saturday and Saturday night. ...DISCUSSION... Anticyclonic mid-level flow is forecast across much of the central and eastern U.S. on Saturday. Thunderstorms will be possible during the day into the evening from the Mid Mississippi Valley into the upper Ohio Valley, as a subtle shortwave trough moves eastward. Thunderstorms will also be possible across parts of California and Nevada, along the eastern edge of an upper-level system moving south-southeastward, offshore and parallel to the California coast. A severe threat is not expected to develop in any of these areas on Saturday and Saturday night. ..Broyles.. 03/29/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN OK/TX PANHANDLES.... ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will strengthen across the Southwest on Saturday as a trough deepens and starts to shift east. This strong mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass across the southern High Plains and result in surface winds of 20 to 25 mph and relative humidity in the single digits. Dry and windy conditions on Friday will dry fuels and increase fuel receptiveness by Saturday with all fine fuels likely critically dry across portions of northeast New Mexico into the western TX/OK Panhandles. ..Bentley.. 03/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN OK/TX PANHANDLES.... ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will strengthen across the Southwest on Saturday as a trough deepens and starts to shift east. This strong mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass across the southern High Plains and result in surface winds of 20 to 25 mph and relative humidity in the single digits. Dry and windy conditions on Friday will dry fuels and increase fuel receptiveness by Saturday with all fine fuels likely critically dry across portions of northeast New Mexico into the western TX/OK Panhandles. ..Bentley.. 03/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN OK/TX PANHANDLES.... ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will strengthen across the Southwest on Saturday as a trough deepens and starts to shift east. This strong mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass across the southern High Plains and result in surface winds of 20 to 25 mph and relative humidity in the single digits. Dry and windy conditions on Friday will dry fuels and increase fuel receptiveness by Saturday with all fine fuels likely critically dry across portions of northeast New Mexico into the western TX/OK Panhandles. ..Bentley.. 03/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN OK/TX PANHANDLES.... ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will strengthen across the Southwest on Saturday as a trough deepens and starts to shift east. This strong mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass across the southern High Plains and result in surface winds of 20 to 25 mph and relative humidity in the single digits. Dry and windy conditions on Friday will dry fuels and increase fuel receptiveness by Saturday with all fine fuels likely critically dry across portions of northeast New Mexico into the western TX/OK Panhandles. ..Bentley.. 03/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN OK/TX PANHANDLES.... ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will strengthen across the Southwest on Saturday as a trough deepens and starts to shift east. This strong mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass across the southern High Plains and result in surface winds of 20 to 25 mph and relative humidity in the single digits. Dry and windy conditions on Friday will dry fuels and increase fuel receptiveness by Saturday with all fine fuels likely critically dry across portions of northeast New Mexico into the western TX/OK Panhandles. ..Bentley.. 03/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move into the Plains today with cyclogenesis expected across western Kansas. This will tighten the surface pressure gradient across the southern Plains and lead to windy conditions. The strongest winds are expected across eastern New Mexico into the western Texas Panhandle where moderate (50 to 60 knot) mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass. In this region, sustained surface winds of 25 mph are expected with relative humidity in the single digits. Fuels in this region were quite moist over the past week, but several days of dry weather have started to dry fuels, especially fine fuels. Therefore, some large-fire threat will exist across eastern New Mexico. ..Bentley.. 03/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move into the Plains today with cyclogenesis expected across western Kansas. This will tighten the surface pressure gradient across the southern Plains and lead to windy conditions. The strongest winds are expected across eastern New Mexico into the western Texas Panhandle where moderate (50 to 60 knot) mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass. In this region, sustained surface winds of 25 mph are expected with relative humidity in the single digits. Fuels in this region were quite moist over the past week, but several days of dry weather have started to dry fuels, especially fine fuels. Therefore, some large-fire threat will exist across eastern New Mexico. ..Bentley.. 03/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move into the Plains today with cyclogenesis expected across western Kansas. This will tighten the surface pressure gradient across the southern Plains and lead to windy conditions. The strongest winds are expected across eastern New Mexico into the western Texas Panhandle where moderate (50 to 60 knot) mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass. In this region, sustained surface winds of 25 mph are expected with relative humidity in the single digits. Fuels in this region were quite moist over the past week, but several days of dry weather have started to dry fuels, especially fine fuels. Therefore, some large-fire threat will exist across eastern New Mexico. ..Bentley.. 03/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move into the Plains today with cyclogenesis expected across western Kansas. This will tighten the surface pressure gradient across the southern Plains and lead to windy conditions. The strongest winds are expected across eastern New Mexico into the western Texas Panhandle where moderate (50 to 60 knot) mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass. In this region, sustained surface winds of 25 mph are expected with relative humidity in the single digits. Fuels in this region were quite moist over the past week, but several days of dry weather have started to dry fuels, especially fine fuels. Therefore, some large-fire threat will exist across eastern New Mexico. ..Bentley.. 03/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe hail is possible with storms over portions of the Midwest Friday night. ...Midwest... Upper ridge is forecast to shift east across the MS Valley today as a short-wave trough currently located over the lower CO River valley advances into the central Plains by 30/00z. This feature will then shift east, inducing weak height falls over the upper Midwest, before progressing to near 87W longitude by the end of the period. Latest model guidance suggests a LLJ will strengthen across the central Plains early, then shift downstream into IL by 06z, in response to the approaching short wave. While moisture is initially quite scant across this region, there is reason to believe PW values may increase to near one inch later this evening, with mean mixing ratios expected near 8 g/kg. Moisture is beginning to advance north across TX early this morning, as evidenced by 50F surface dew points now approaching the DFW Metroplex. While absolute moisture content will remain seasonally low with this return event, 500mb temperatures will remain cold (-20C) north of the midlevel jet. Forecast soundings suggest elevated parcels will become weakly inhibited by mid evening, and scattered convection should develop ahead of the short wave within the warm advection zone. While the magnitude of instability will remain a bit weak, steep midlevel lapse rates are expected to support robust updrafts, the strongest of which could generate marginally severe hail. Convection should initiate over eastern IA then spread into northern IL/southern WI during the late evening/overnight hours. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 03/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe hail is possible with storms over portions of the Midwest Friday night. ...Midwest... Upper ridge is forecast to shift east across the MS Valley today as a short-wave trough currently located over the lower CO River valley advances into the central Plains by 30/00z. This feature will then shift east, inducing weak height falls over the upper Midwest, before progressing to near 87W longitude by the end of the period. Latest model guidance suggests a LLJ will strengthen across the central Plains early, then shift downstream into IL by 06z, in response to the approaching short wave. While moisture is initially quite scant across this region, there is reason to believe PW values may increase to near one inch later this evening, with mean mixing ratios expected near 8 g/kg. Moisture is beginning to advance north across TX early this morning, as evidenced by 50F surface dew points now approaching the DFW Metroplex. While absolute moisture content will remain seasonally low with this return event, 500mb temperatures will remain cold (-20C) north of the midlevel jet. Forecast soundings suggest elevated parcels will become weakly inhibited by mid evening, and scattered convection should develop ahead of the short wave within the warm advection zone. While the magnitude of instability will remain a bit weak, steep midlevel lapse rates are expected to support robust updrafts, the strongest of which could generate marginally severe hail. Convection should initiate over eastern IA then spread into northern IL/southern WI during the late evening/overnight hours. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 03/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe hail is possible with storms over portions of the Midwest Friday night. ...Midwest... Upper ridge is forecast to shift east across the MS Valley today as a short-wave trough currently located over the lower CO River valley advances into the central Plains by 30/00z. This feature will then shift east, inducing weak height falls over the upper Midwest, before progressing to near 87W longitude by the end of the period. Latest model guidance suggests a LLJ will strengthen across the central Plains early, then shift downstream into IL by 06z, in response to the approaching short wave. While moisture is initially quite scant across this region, there is reason to believe PW values may increase to near one inch later this evening, with mean mixing ratios expected near 8 g/kg. Moisture is beginning to advance north across TX early this morning, as evidenced by 50F surface dew points now approaching the DFW Metroplex. While absolute moisture content will remain seasonally low with this return event, 500mb temperatures will remain cold (-20C) north of the midlevel jet. Forecast soundings suggest elevated parcels will become weakly inhibited by mid evening, and scattered convection should develop ahead of the short wave within the warm advection zone. While the magnitude of instability will remain a bit weak, steep midlevel lapse rates are expected to support robust updrafts, the strongest of which could generate marginally severe hail. Convection should initiate over eastern IA then spread into northern IL/southern WI during the late evening/overnight hours. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 03/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe hail is possible with storms over portions of the Midwest Friday night. ...Midwest... Upper ridge is forecast to shift east across the MS Valley today as a short-wave trough currently located over the lower CO River valley advances into the central Plains by 30/00z. This feature will then shift east, inducing weak height falls over the upper Midwest, before progressing to near 87W longitude by the end of the period. Latest model guidance suggests a LLJ will strengthen across the central Plains early, then shift downstream into IL by 06z, in response to the approaching short wave. While moisture is initially quite scant across this region, there is reason to believe PW values may increase to near one inch later this evening, with mean mixing ratios expected near 8 g/kg. Moisture is beginning to advance north across TX early this morning, as evidenced by 50F surface dew points now approaching the DFW Metroplex. While absolute moisture content will remain seasonally low with this return event, 500mb temperatures will remain cold (-20C) north of the midlevel jet. Forecast soundings suggest elevated parcels will become weakly inhibited by mid evening, and scattered convection should develop ahead of the short wave within the warm advection zone. While the magnitude of instability will remain a bit weak, steep midlevel lapse rates are expected to support robust updrafts, the strongest of which could generate marginally severe hail. Convection should initiate over eastern IA then spread into northern IL/southern WI during the late evening/overnight hours. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 03/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0728 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms will linger across the western US this evening. ...01z Update... Strong midlevel jet will continue to sag south across CA/Great Basin into the Four Corners region tonight. Steep lapse rates north of the jet have proven favorable for scattered convection across portions of the northwestern US into western WY. While a few flashes of lightning remain possible with this diurnally-enhanced convection, loss of daytime heating should lessen buoyancy along with the risk for thunderstorms. ..Darrow.. 03/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0728 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms will linger across the western US this evening. ...01z Update... Strong midlevel jet will continue to sag south across CA/Great Basin into the Four Corners region tonight. Steep lapse rates north of the jet have proven favorable for scattered convection across portions of the northwestern US into western WY. While a few flashes of lightning remain possible with this diurnally-enhanced convection, loss of daytime heating should lessen buoyancy along with the risk for thunderstorms. ..Darrow.. 03/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0728 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms will linger across the western US this evening. ...01z Update... Strong midlevel jet will continue to sag south across CA/Great Basin into the Four Corners region tonight. Steep lapse rates north of the jet have proven favorable for scattered convection across portions of the northwestern US into western WY. While a few flashes of lightning remain possible with this diurnally-enhanced convection, loss of daytime heating should lessen buoyancy along with the risk for thunderstorms. ..Darrow.. 03/29/2024 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Mar 28 23:49:01 UTC 2024.

No watches are valid as of Thu Mar 28 23:49:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z Zonal flow aloft will quickly amplify ahead of a Pacific trough forecast to move onshore this weekend. Strong southwesterly flow will overspread the Southwest and southern high Plains, deepening a surface low over the southern Rockies. Strong surface winds are expected over much of the southern Plains along with an increasingly warm and dry air mass. As the upper-level system moves east, strong winds and lower RH will continue into early next week before a cold front moves south. Critical fire-weather concerns appear likely this weekend and early next week. ...Southern High Plains... Critical fire-weather conditions appear likely this weekend and into early next week as the main wave of the aforementioned Pacific trough moves over the southern Plains. Accompanied by a powerful 80-100 kt mid-level jet streak, strong lee cyclogenesis is expected over southeastern CO. The enhanced flow aloft and strong low-level pressure gradient will help drive 25-35 mph sustained surface winds across parts of the TX Panhandle, eastern NM and western OK. Dry downslope winds and warm temperatures behind a dryline/lee trough should also support widespread humidity values below 15%. The overlap of strong winds and several hours of hot and dry surface conditions will be favorable for widespread critical fire-weather concerns, especially D5/Sun. Fire-weather concerns will likely continue into D6/Mon as the upper trough and surface low move to the east. Confidence on the coverage and duration of critical fire-weather concerns is lower owing to uncertainty on a potential frontal passage. However, gusty winds and lower humidity still appear likely over southern portions of the TX Panhandle into southeastern NM and west TX. Through the remainder of next week, fire-weather concerns appear much lower as the cold front is forecast to move southeastward ushering in a colder air mass. ..Lyons.. 03/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more