Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough/low will dig southward very near the northern and central CA Coast on Friday. Isolated lightning flashes may occur across parts of coastal central CA through the period, as cold mid-level temperatures aid in the development of weak MUCAPE and ascent associated with the upper trough/low overspreads this region. A separate area of isolated thunderstorm potential, mainly related to orographic lift, also remains apparent over portions of central Rockies. Farther east, a modified Gulf airmass will slowly advance northward from the southern Plains into parts of the mid MS Valley and Upper Midwest through Friday evening. The northern extent of this low-level moisture plume should remain rather shallow and limited, with surface dewpoints no greater than the low 50s expected. Still, a low-amplitude shortwave trough that will eject across the northern/central Plains should aid in weak cyclogenesis across the Upper Midwest, with a related weak surface low forecast to be located along/near the MO/IA border Friday evening. These features should provide sufficient lift, in tandem with a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet, to support thunderstorm development mainly Friday evening into early Saturday morning from parts of the mid MO Valley into the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. Even though deep-layer shear is forecast to become strong in this time frame, convection will probably tend to remain elevated. Generally weak MUCAPE (500-1000 J/kg) should limit the threat for severe-caliber hail, although small hail with the most robust updrafts appears possible. ..Gleason.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough/low will dig southward very near the northern and central CA Coast on Friday. Isolated lightning flashes may occur across parts of coastal central CA through the period, as cold mid-level temperatures aid in the development of weak MUCAPE and ascent associated with the upper trough/low overspreads this region. A separate area of isolated thunderstorm potential, mainly related to orographic lift, also remains apparent over portions of central Rockies. Farther east, a modified Gulf airmass will slowly advance northward from the southern Plains into parts of the mid MS Valley and Upper Midwest through Friday evening. The northern extent of this low-level moisture plume should remain rather shallow and limited, with surface dewpoints no greater than the low 50s expected. Still, a low-amplitude shortwave trough that will eject across the northern/central Plains should aid in weak cyclogenesis across the Upper Midwest, with a related weak surface low forecast to be located along/near the MO/IA border Friday evening. These features should provide sufficient lift, in tandem with a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet, to support thunderstorm development mainly Friday evening into early Saturday morning from parts of the mid MO Valley into the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. Even though deep-layer shear is forecast to become strong in this time frame, convection will probably tend to remain elevated. Generally weak MUCAPE (500-1000 J/kg) should limit the threat for severe-caliber hail, although small hail with the most robust updrafts appears possible. ..Gleason.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough/low will dig southward very near the northern and central CA Coast on Friday. Isolated lightning flashes may occur across parts of coastal central CA through the period, as cold mid-level temperatures aid in the development of weak MUCAPE and ascent associated with the upper trough/low overspreads this region. A separate area of isolated thunderstorm potential, mainly related to orographic lift, also remains apparent over portions of central Rockies. Farther east, a modified Gulf airmass will slowly advance northward from the southern Plains into parts of the mid MS Valley and Upper Midwest through Friday evening. The northern extent of this low-level moisture plume should remain rather shallow and limited, with surface dewpoints no greater than the low 50s expected. Still, a low-amplitude shortwave trough that will eject across the northern/central Plains should aid in weak cyclogenesis across the Upper Midwest, with a related weak surface low forecast to be located along/near the MO/IA border Friday evening. These features should provide sufficient lift, in tandem with a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet, to support thunderstorm development mainly Friday evening into early Saturday morning from parts of the mid MO Valley into the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. Even though deep-layer shear is forecast to become strong in this time frame, convection will probably tend to remain elevated. Generally weak MUCAPE (500-1000 J/kg) should limit the threat for severe-caliber hail, although small hail with the most robust updrafts appears possible. ..Gleason.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Offshore flow will dominate the Gulf/Atlantic Coasts during the day1 period as the primary synoptic front advances east ahead of a pronounced upper trough. Early in the period, surface wind shift will extend from the NC Outer Banks region, southwest across the central FL Peninsula. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along this boundary, aided in part by large-scale forcing ahead of the upper trough. While strong deep-layer flow/shear will be noted, poor lapse rates and weak buoyancy do not appear conducive for particularly robust updrafts along the advancing wind shift. Upstream across the western US, very cold midlevel temperatures will overspread the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies/northern Great Basin. 500mb jet is forecast to sag south across CA/NV/UT into the Four Corners region during the latter half of the period. As a result, very steep lapse rates will be generated north of the jet, such that weak buoyancy is expected to support scattered convection. Given the cold profiles, some risk for thunderstorms will be noted, as low-topped convection could attain heights necessary for lightning discharge. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Offshore flow will dominate the Gulf/Atlantic Coasts during the day1 period as the primary synoptic front advances east ahead of a pronounced upper trough. Early in the period, surface wind shift will extend from the NC Outer Banks region, southwest across the central FL Peninsula. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along this boundary, aided in part by large-scale forcing ahead of the upper trough. While strong deep-layer flow/shear will be noted, poor lapse rates and weak buoyancy do not appear conducive for particularly robust updrafts along the advancing wind shift. Upstream across the western US, very cold midlevel temperatures will overspread the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies/northern Great Basin. 500mb jet is forecast to sag south across CA/NV/UT into the Four Corners region during the latter half of the period. As a result, very steep lapse rates will be generated north of the jet, such that weak buoyancy is expected to support scattered convection. Given the cold profiles, some risk for thunderstorms will be noted, as low-topped convection could attain heights necessary for lightning discharge. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Offshore flow will dominate the Gulf/Atlantic Coasts during the day1 period as the primary synoptic front advances east ahead of a pronounced upper trough. Early in the period, surface wind shift will extend from the NC Outer Banks region, southwest across the central FL Peninsula. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along this boundary, aided in part by large-scale forcing ahead of the upper trough. While strong deep-layer flow/shear will be noted, poor lapse rates and weak buoyancy do not appear conducive for particularly robust updrafts along the advancing wind shift. Upstream across the western US, very cold midlevel temperatures will overspread the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies/northern Great Basin. 500mb jet is forecast to sag south across CA/NV/UT into the Four Corners region during the latter half of the period. As a result, very steep lapse rates will be generated north of the jet, such that weak buoyancy is expected to support scattered convection. Given the cold profiles, some risk for thunderstorms will be noted, as low-topped convection could attain heights necessary for lightning discharge. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Offshore flow will dominate the Gulf/Atlantic Coasts during the day1 period as the primary synoptic front advances east ahead of a pronounced upper trough. Early in the period, surface wind shift will extend from the NC Outer Banks region, southwest across the central FL Peninsula. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along this boundary, aided in part by large-scale forcing ahead of the upper trough. While strong deep-layer flow/shear will be noted, poor lapse rates and weak buoyancy do not appear conducive for particularly robust updrafts along the advancing wind shift. Upstream across the western US, very cold midlevel temperatures will overspread the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies/northern Great Basin. 500mb jet is forecast to sag south across CA/NV/UT into the Four Corners region during the latter half of the period. As a result, very steep lapse rates will be generated north of the jet, such that weak buoyancy is expected to support scattered convection. Given the cold profiles, some risk for thunderstorms will be noted, as low-topped convection could attain heights necessary for lightning discharge. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Offshore flow will dominate the Gulf/Atlantic Coasts during the day1 period as the primary synoptic front advances east ahead of a pronounced upper trough. Early in the period, surface wind shift will extend from the NC Outer Banks region, southwest across the central FL Peninsula. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along this boundary, aided in part by large-scale forcing ahead of the upper trough. While strong deep-layer flow/shear will be noted, poor lapse rates and weak buoyancy do not appear conducive for particularly robust updrafts along the advancing wind shift. Upstream across the western US, very cold midlevel temperatures will overspread the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies/northern Great Basin. 500mb jet is forecast to sag south across CA/NV/UT into the Four Corners region during the latter half of the period. As a result, very steep lapse rates will be generated north of the jet, such that weak buoyancy is expected to support scattered convection. Given the cold profiles, some risk for thunderstorms will be noted, as low-topped convection could attain heights necessary for lightning discharge. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Offshore flow will dominate the Gulf/Atlantic Coasts during the day1 period as the primary synoptic front advances east ahead of a pronounced upper trough. Early in the period, surface wind shift will extend from the NC Outer Banks region, southwest across the central FL Peninsula. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along this boundary, aided in part by large-scale forcing ahead of the upper trough. While strong deep-layer flow/shear will be noted, poor lapse rates and weak buoyancy do not appear conducive for particularly robust updrafts along the advancing wind shift. Upstream across the western US, very cold midlevel temperatures will overspread the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies/northern Great Basin. 500mb jet is forecast to sag south across CA/NV/UT into the Four Corners region during the latter half of the period. As a result, very steep lapse rates will be generated north of the jet, such that weak buoyancy is expected to support scattered convection. Given the cold profiles, some risk for thunderstorms will be noted, as low-topped convection could attain heights necessary for lightning discharge. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal risk of severe hail and damaging winds persists this evening over parts of the near-coastal Southeast. ...01z Update... Progressive southern-stream short-wave trough is ejecting east across the Gulf States early this evening. At the surface, frontal zone will gradually shift toward the Southeast Coast, eventually migrating offshore by the end of the period. A narrow corridor of weak buoyancy currently resides across southeast GA into Coastal Carolinas. This air mass remains favorable for the maintenance of scattered convection along the advancing front. Even so, lapse rates are not particularly steep so the most robust activity is expected to only produce isolated gusty winds, and perhaps marginally severe hail. ..Darrow.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal risk of severe hail and damaging winds persists this evening over parts of the near-coastal Southeast. ...01z Update... Progressive southern-stream short-wave trough is ejecting east across the Gulf States early this evening. At the surface, frontal zone will gradually shift toward the Southeast Coast, eventually migrating offshore by the end of the period. A narrow corridor of weak buoyancy currently resides across southeast GA into Coastal Carolinas. This air mass remains favorable for the maintenance of scattered convection along the advancing front. Even so, lapse rates are not particularly steep so the most robust activity is expected to only produce isolated gusty winds, and perhaps marginally severe hail. ..Darrow.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal risk of severe hail and damaging winds persists this evening over parts of the near-coastal Southeast. ...01z Update... Progressive southern-stream short-wave trough is ejecting east across the Gulf States early this evening. At the surface, frontal zone will gradually shift toward the Southeast Coast, eventually migrating offshore by the end of the period. A narrow corridor of weak buoyancy currently resides across southeast GA into Coastal Carolinas. This air mass remains favorable for the maintenance of scattered convection along the advancing front. Even so, lapse rates are not particularly steep so the most robust activity is expected to only produce isolated gusty winds, and perhaps marginally severe hail. ..Darrow.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal risk of severe hail and damaging winds persists this evening over parts of the near-coastal Southeast. ...01z Update... Progressive southern-stream short-wave trough is ejecting east across the Gulf States early this evening. At the surface, frontal zone will gradually shift toward the Southeast Coast, eventually migrating offshore by the end of the period. A narrow corridor of weak buoyancy currently resides across southeast GA into Coastal Carolinas. This air mass remains favorable for the maintenance of scattered convection along the advancing front. Even so, lapse rates are not particularly steep so the most robust activity is expected to only produce isolated gusty winds, and perhaps marginally severe hail. ..Darrow.. 03/28/2024 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Mar 27 22:32:01 UTC 2024.

No watches are valid as of Wed Mar 27 22:32:01 UTC 2024.

MD 0311 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...FAR SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0311 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Areas affected...northern FLORIDA Peninsula...southeastern Georgia...eastern South Carolina...far southern North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 272022Z - 272215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage will increase this afternoon with potential for instances of severe hail and wind. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development has begun in eastern Georgia near a surface boundary that extends from the Carolinas southward into the eastern Florida Panhandle. CAMs continue to suggest this thunderstorm activity will increase into the afternoon, with scattered thunderstorms expected across much of the region. Afternoon heating has been slow, given mid-to upper level cloud cover and slow eroding of stable air behind morning convection. Surface objective analysis indicates MLCIN has weakened with around 500 J/kg MLCAPE across South Carolina into Georgia ahead of the boundary. This trend is further confirmed by thunderstorm development on radar. Currently, deep layer shear is strongest across the northern Florida Peninsula into southern Georgia. As the front shifts eastward this afternoon, stronger mid-level flow will spread northward, with deep layer shear increasing to the north as a result. This will support potential for a few more robust thunderstorms with potential for damaging winds and large hail. Given the slow air mass recovery and potential for messy storm mode with multi-cell clusters, a watch is unlikely to be needed this afternoon. ..Thornton/Hart.. 03/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 31138337 32258262 32988215 34258099 35118004 35207994 35057892 34787854 34447836 34237827 34057827 33567853 33117900 32538007 32188051 31928076 31518105 31358147 31158197 30938228 30708268 30408289 30138320 30128368 30278377 31138337 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Strong but predominately zonal mid-level flow is expected across the western US to start the extended forecast period. This pattern will quickly amplify into the weekend as a deepening upper trough moves onshore across southern CA. Strong flow aloft will overspread the southern Plains deepening a lee low and enhancing surface winds. Hot, dry, and windy conditions will support widespread elevated to critical conditions through the weekend and potentially into early next week. Model guidance begins to vary after this with colder and wetter conditions possible behind a cold front expected toward the end of the extended forecast period. ...Southern High Plains... Southwest flow aloft is forecast to quickly strengthen late this week and into the weekend ahead of the deepening Pacific trough. As flow aloft intensifies, several weak perturbations are forecast to move over the southern Rockies into the southern Plains Starting D3/Fri. Aided by the mid-level ascent, the surface lee trough should begin to deepen and bolster westerly surface winds through the afternoon. Forecast soundings show sustained winds of 15-20 mph with higher gusts likely across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle. With temperatures forecast to warm into the 70s, the dry air mass should allow for diurnal RH minimums of 15-20%. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely, with some hints that localized critical concerns are also possible but more uncertain. Flow aloft should weaken slightly D4/Saturday under the influence of shortwave ridging as the upper air pattern continues to amplify ahead of the western US trough. While weaker, westerly winds should still support lee troughing and 15-20 mph surface winds. Warming temperatures beneath the transient ridging should also keep RH minimums near 15% with elevated fire-weather conditions possible. More significant fire-weather conditions are expected D5/Sun into D6/Mon. The main upper trough will begin to eject eastward spreading 80-100 kt of mid-level flow over the southern Plains. A strong lee low will develop, enhancing southwest surface winds to 25-35 mph and higher gusts. With afternoon RH values in the 10-15% range, widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear likely across parts of west TX and eastern NM. This risk may continue into D6/Monday as the dryline and upper-level systems shift eastward. However, confidence in placement of these features remains lower owing to potential thunderstorms and the arrival of a cold front in the wake of the surface low. Fire-weather concerns appear much less likely through the end of the extended forecast period as below normal temperatures and wetter surface conditions are forecast to develop. ..Lyons.. 03/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Strong but predominately zonal mid-level flow is expected across the western US to start the extended forecast period. This pattern will quickly amplify into the weekend as a deepening upper trough moves onshore across southern CA. Strong flow aloft will overspread the southern Plains deepening a lee low and enhancing surface winds. Hot, dry, and windy conditions will support widespread elevated to critical conditions through the weekend and potentially into early next week. Model guidance begins to vary after this with colder and wetter conditions possible behind a cold front expected toward the end of the extended forecast period. ...Southern High Plains... Southwest flow aloft is forecast to quickly strengthen late this week and into the weekend ahead of the deepening Pacific trough. As flow aloft intensifies, several weak perturbations are forecast to move over the southern Rockies into the southern Plains Starting D3/Fri. Aided by the mid-level ascent, the surface lee trough should begin to deepen and bolster westerly surface winds through the afternoon. Forecast soundings show sustained winds of 15-20 mph with higher gusts likely across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle. With temperatures forecast to warm into the 70s, the dry air mass should allow for diurnal RH minimums of 15-20%. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely, with some hints that localized critical concerns are also possible but more uncertain. Flow aloft should weaken slightly D4/Saturday under the influence of shortwave ridging as the upper air pattern continues to amplify ahead of the western US trough. While weaker, westerly winds should still support lee troughing and 15-20 mph surface winds. Warming temperatures beneath the transient ridging should also keep RH minimums near 15% with elevated fire-weather conditions possible. More significant fire-weather conditions are expected D5/Sun into D6/Mon. The main upper trough will begin to eject eastward spreading 80-100 kt of mid-level flow over the southern Plains. A strong lee low will develop, enhancing southwest surface winds to 25-35 mph and higher gusts. With afternoon RH values in the 10-15% range, widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear likely across parts of west TX and eastern NM. This risk may continue into D6/Monday as the dryline and upper-level systems shift eastward. However, confidence in placement of these features remains lower owing to potential thunderstorms and the arrival of a cold front in the wake of the surface low. Fire-weather concerns appear much less likely through the end of the extended forecast period as below normal temperatures and wetter surface conditions are forecast to develop. ..Lyons.. 03/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Strong but predominately zonal mid-level flow is expected across the western US to start the extended forecast period. This pattern will quickly amplify into the weekend as a deepening upper trough moves onshore across southern CA. Strong flow aloft will overspread the southern Plains deepening a lee low and enhancing surface winds. Hot, dry, and windy conditions will support widespread elevated to critical conditions through the weekend and potentially into early next week. Model guidance begins to vary after this with colder and wetter conditions possible behind a cold front expected toward the end of the extended forecast period. ...Southern High Plains... Southwest flow aloft is forecast to quickly strengthen late this week and into the weekend ahead of the deepening Pacific trough. As flow aloft intensifies, several weak perturbations are forecast to move over the southern Rockies into the southern Plains Starting D3/Fri. Aided by the mid-level ascent, the surface lee trough should begin to deepen and bolster westerly surface winds through the afternoon. Forecast soundings show sustained winds of 15-20 mph with higher gusts likely across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle. With temperatures forecast to warm into the 70s, the dry air mass should allow for diurnal RH minimums of 15-20%. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely, with some hints that localized critical concerns are also possible but more uncertain. Flow aloft should weaken slightly D4/Saturday under the influence of shortwave ridging as the upper air pattern continues to amplify ahead of the western US trough. While weaker, westerly winds should still support lee troughing and 15-20 mph surface winds. Warming temperatures beneath the transient ridging should also keep RH minimums near 15% with elevated fire-weather conditions possible. More significant fire-weather conditions are expected D5/Sun into D6/Mon. The main upper trough will begin to eject eastward spreading 80-100 kt of mid-level flow over the southern Plains. A strong lee low will develop, enhancing southwest surface winds to 25-35 mph and higher gusts. With afternoon RH values in the 10-15% range, widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear likely across parts of west TX and eastern NM. This risk may continue into D6/Monday as the dryline and upper-level systems shift eastward. However, confidence in placement of these features remains lower owing to potential thunderstorms and the arrival of a cold front in the wake of the surface low. Fire-weather concerns appear much less likely through the end of the extended forecast period as below normal temperatures and wetter surface conditions are forecast to develop. ..Lyons.. 03/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Strong but predominately zonal mid-level flow is expected across the western US to start the extended forecast period. This pattern will quickly amplify into the weekend as a deepening upper trough moves onshore across southern CA. Strong flow aloft will overspread the southern Plains deepening a lee low and enhancing surface winds. Hot, dry, and windy conditions will support widespread elevated to critical conditions through the weekend and potentially into early next week. Model guidance begins to vary after this with colder and wetter conditions possible behind a cold front expected toward the end of the extended forecast period. ...Southern High Plains... Southwest flow aloft is forecast to quickly strengthen late this week and into the weekend ahead of the deepening Pacific trough. As flow aloft intensifies, several weak perturbations are forecast to move over the southern Rockies into the southern Plains Starting D3/Fri. Aided by the mid-level ascent, the surface lee trough should begin to deepen and bolster westerly surface winds through the afternoon. Forecast soundings show sustained winds of 15-20 mph with higher gusts likely across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle. With temperatures forecast to warm into the 70s, the dry air mass should allow for diurnal RH minimums of 15-20%. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely, with some hints that localized critical concerns are also possible but more uncertain. Flow aloft should weaken slightly D4/Saturday under the influence of shortwave ridging as the upper air pattern continues to amplify ahead of the western US trough. While weaker, westerly winds should still support lee troughing and 15-20 mph surface winds. Warming temperatures beneath the transient ridging should also keep RH minimums near 15% with elevated fire-weather conditions possible. More significant fire-weather conditions are expected D5/Sun into D6/Mon. The main upper trough will begin to eject eastward spreading 80-100 kt of mid-level flow over the southern Plains. A strong lee low will develop, enhancing southwest surface winds to 25-35 mph and higher gusts. With afternoon RH values in the 10-15% range, widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear likely across parts of west TX and eastern NM. This risk may continue into D6/Monday as the dryline and upper-level systems shift eastward. However, confidence in placement of these features remains lower owing to potential thunderstorms and the arrival of a cold front in the wake of the surface low. Fire-weather concerns appear much less likely through the end of the extended forecast period as below normal temperatures and wetter surface conditions are forecast to develop. ..Lyons.. 03/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more