Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the southern High Plains as a mid-level trough traverses the Lower Mississippi Valley today. Dry downslope flow will develop across southeastern New Mexico into western Texas this afternoon, promoting conditions favorable for wildfire spread. By afternoon peak heating, 20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds will overlap with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours. Given that these Critical meteorological surface conditions will overlap fuels that are at least marginally receptive to fire spread, "high-end" Elevated highlights have been maintained. ..Squitieri.. 03/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the southern High Plains as a mid-level trough traverses the Lower Mississippi Valley today. Dry downslope flow will develop across southeastern New Mexico into western Texas this afternoon, promoting conditions favorable for wildfire spread. By afternoon peak heating, 20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds will overlap with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours. Given that these Critical meteorological surface conditions will overlap fuels that are at least marginally receptive to fire spread, "high-end" Elevated highlights have been maintained. ..Squitieri.. 03/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the southern High Plains as a mid-level trough traverses the Lower Mississippi Valley today. Dry downslope flow will develop across southeastern New Mexico into western Texas this afternoon, promoting conditions favorable for wildfire spread. By afternoon peak heating, 20-25 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds will overlap with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours. Given that these Critical meteorological surface conditions will overlap fuels that are at least marginally receptive to fire spread, "high-end" Elevated highlights have been maintained. ..Squitieri.. 03/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0308 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0308 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Areas affected...Eastern Florida Panhandle...Far Southern Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 270355Z - 270630Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may continue for another hour or two across parts of the eastern Florida Panhandle and far southern Georgia. The threat is expected to be marginal and weather watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...The latest KTLH high-resolution radar shows a small cluster of thunderstorms, with one distinct rotating cell, near the Florida-Georgia state line to the northwest of Tallahassee. This cluster is located in a moist but weakly unstable airmass, where surface dewpoints are in the mid 60s F and MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP near 250 J/kg. The WSR-88D VWP in far southern Georgia has 0-6 km shear near 45 knots, and 0-3km storm-relative helicity around 270 m2/s2. This may be enough to continue an isolated severe threat over the next hour, as storms move eastward across the eastern Florida Panhandle. Marginally severe winds and hail will be the primary threats. Poor lapse rates are expected to limit the overall severe potential. ..Broyles/Goss.. 03/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 30478306 30318388 30298451 30498466 30878453 31068412 31128313 30868285 30478306 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern-stream upper trough will move from the Southeast to the western Atlantic on Thursday. A weak surface low near the NC/SC Coast will likewise develop east-northeastward over the Gulf Stream through the day, while a trailing cold front sweeps southeastward across the FL Peninsula and the Keys. Limited low-level convergence along this front should keep any thunderstorm potential quite isolated over land. While the environment across south FL appears conditionally favorable for organized thunderstorms, the overall severe potential still appears too low to add any severe probabilities. Generally elevated thunderstorms may also occur across parts of coastal NC/SC through early Thursday afternoon in a modest low-level warm advection regime, as pronounced forcing for ascent associated with the upper trough overlaps weak MUCAPE. Occasional lightning flashes may also occur Thursday across parts of both the coastal and interior Northwest, as well as northern California and the northern Rockies/Great Basin. An upper trough is forecast to move eastward across these areas through the period, with cold mid-level temperatures (around -20 to -30C at 500 mb) aiding in weak destabilization. Limited moisture and instability are expected to preclude severe thunderstorms across these areas. ..Gleason.. 03/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern-stream upper trough will move from the Southeast to the western Atlantic on Thursday. A weak surface low near the NC/SC Coast will likewise develop east-northeastward over the Gulf Stream through the day, while a trailing cold front sweeps southeastward across the FL Peninsula and the Keys. Limited low-level convergence along this front should keep any thunderstorm potential quite isolated over land. While the environment across south FL appears conditionally favorable for organized thunderstorms, the overall severe potential still appears too low to add any severe probabilities. Generally elevated thunderstorms may also occur across parts of coastal NC/SC through early Thursday afternoon in a modest low-level warm advection regime, as pronounced forcing for ascent associated with the upper trough overlaps weak MUCAPE. Occasional lightning flashes may also occur Thursday across parts of both the coastal and interior Northwest, as well as northern California and the northern Rockies/Great Basin. An upper trough is forecast to move eastward across these areas through the period, with cold mid-level temperatures (around -20 to -30C at 500 mb) aiding in weak destabilization. Limited moisture and instability are expected to preclude severe thunderstorms across these areas. ..Gleason.. 03/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern-stream upper trough will move from the Southeast to the western Atlantic on Thursday. A weak surface low near the NC/SC Coast will likewise develop east-northeastward over the Gulf Stream through the day, while a trailing cold front sweeps southeastward across the FL Peninsula and the Keys. Limited low-level convergence along this front should keep any thunderstorm potential quite isolated over land. While the environment across south FL appears conditionally favorable for organized thunderstorms, the overall severe potential still appears too low to add any severe probabilities. Generally elevated thunderstorms may also occur across parts of coastal NC/SC through early Thursday afternoon in a modest low-level warm advection regime, as pronounced forcing for ascent associated with the upper trough overlaps weak MUCAPE. Occasional lightning flashes may also occur Thursday across parts of both the coastal and interior Northwest, as well as northern California and the northern Rockies/Great Basin. An upper trough is forecast to move eastward across these areas through the period, with cold mid-level temperatures (around -20 to -30C at 500 mb) aiding in weak destabilization. Limited moisture and instability are expected to preclude severe thunderstorms across these areas. ..Gleason.. 03/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern-stream upper trough will move from the Southeast to the western Atlantic on Thursday. A weak surface low near the NC/SC Coast will likewise develop east-northeastward over the Gulf Stream through the day, while a trailing cold front sweeps southeastward across the FL Peninsula and the Keys. Limited low-level convergence along this front should keep any thunderstorm potential quite isolated over land. While the environment across south FL appears conditionally favorable for organized thunderstorms, the overall severe potential still appears too low to add any severe probabilities. Generally elevated thunderstorms may also occur across parts of coastal NC/SC through early Thursday afternoon in a modest low-level warm advection regime, as pronounced forcing for ascent associated with the upper trough overlaps weak MUCAPE. Occasional lightning flashes may also occur Thursday across parts of both the coastal and interior Northwest, as well as northern California and the northern Rockies/Great Basin. An upper trough is forecast to move eastward across these areas through the period, with cold mid-level temperatures (around -20 to -30C at 500 mb) aiding in weak destabilization. Limited moisture and instability are expected to preclude severe thunderstorms across these areas. ..Gleason.. 03/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern-stream upper trough will move from the Southeast to the western Atlantic on Thursday. A weak surface low near the NC/SC Coast will likewise develop east-northeastward over the Gulf Stream through the day, while a trailing cold front sweeps southeastward across the FL Peninsula and the Keys. Limited low-level convergence along this front should keep any thunderstorm potential quite isolated over land. While the environment across south FL appears conditionally favorable for organized thunderstorms, the overall severe potential still appears too low to add any severe probabilities. Generally elevated thunderstorms may also occur across parts of coastal NC/SC through early Thursday afternoon in a modest low-level warm advection regime, as pronounced forcing for ascent associated with the upper trough overlaps weak MUCAPE. Occasional lightning flashes may also occur Thursday across parts of both the coastal and interior Northwest, as well as northern California and the northern Rockies/Great Basin. An upper trough is forecast to move eastward across these areas through the period, with cold mid-level temperatures (around -20 to -30C at 500 mb) aiding in weak destabilization. Limited moisture and instability are expected to preclude severe thunderstorms across these areas. ..Gleason.. 03/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern-stream upper trough will move from the Southeast to the western Atlantic on Thursday. A weak surface low near the NC/SC Coast will likewise develop east-northeastward over the Gulf Stream through the day, while a trailing cold front sweeps southeastward across the FL Peninsula and the Keys. Limited low-level convergence along this front should keep any thunderstorm potential quite isolated over land. While the environment across south FL appears conditionally favorable for organized thunderstorms, the overall severe potential still appears too low to add any severe probabilities. Generally elevated thunderstorms may also occur across parts of coastal NC/SC through early Thursday afternoon in a modest low-level warm advection regime, as pronounced forcing for ascent associated with the upper trough overlaps weak MUCAPE. Occasional lightning flashes may also occur Thursday across parts of both the coastal and interior Northwest, as well as northern California and the northern Rockies/Great Basin. An upper trough is forecast to move eastward across these areas through the period, with cold mid-level temperatures (around -20 to -30C at 500 mb) aiding in weak destabilization. Limited moisture and instability are expected to preclude severe thunderstorms across these areas. ..Gleason.. 03/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern-stream upper trough will move from the Southeast to the western Atlantic on Thursday. A weak surface low near the NC/SC Coast will likewise develop east-northeastward over the Gulf Stream through the day, while a trailing cold front sweeps southeastward across the FL Peninsula and the Keys. Limited low-level convergence along this front should keep any thunderstorm potential quite isolated over land. While the environment across south FL appears conditionally favorable for organized thunderstorms, the overall severe potential still appears too low to add any severe probabilities. Generally elevated thunderstorms may also occur across parts of coastal NC/SC through early Thursday afternoon in a modest low-level warm advection regime, as pronounced forcing for ascent associated with the upper trough overlaps weak MUCAPE. Occasional lightning flashes may also occur Thursday across parts of both the coastal and interior Northwest, as well as northern California and the northern Rockies/Great Basin. An upper trough is forecast to move eastward across these areas through the period, with cold mid-level temperatures (around -20 to -30C at 500 mb) aiding in weak destabilization. Limited moisture and instability are expected to preclude severe thunderstorms across these areas. ..Gleason.. 03/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN OF SOUTH CAROLINA...AND ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across north Florida into the coastal plain of South Carolina, and also across parts of north-central Texas. Isolated hail and damaging winds should be the main hazards for both areas. ...Florida into the Carolinas... A core of a strong belt of southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to gradually overspread a pre-frontal region from the Carolinas into north FL during the day. Coincident with the strengthening flow, a large-scale trough initially over TX, will pivot east and reach AL by early Thursday morning. Early-day convection and related cloudiness will likely delay stronger heating, but cloud breaks and a cessation of precip will lead to weak to locally moderate destabilization during peak heating. Strengthening flow fields will support storm organization with any robust updrafts. Models continue to show episodic convection throughout the day, which lends some uncertainty when the potential for stronger storms will occur. Isolated damaging gusts (peaking in the 50-65 mph range) and severe hail (1.0-1.5 inches in diameter) are possible. The risk for stronger storms may persist into the late evening near the Carolina coast. ...Parts of north into central TX... Despite generally meager low-level moisture across the region, cold temperatures aloft (500 mb temperatures around -25C) in the vicinity of the mid-level trough axis, will support weak buoyancy (250-750 J/kg MLCAPE) from north into central TX. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected by late afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, and a southeastward-moving supercell or two will be possible. Hail may be the most likely hazard, given the cold temperature profiles, but steep lapse rates could also support isolated severe gusts. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 03/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN OF SOUTH CAROLINA...AND ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across north Florida into the coastal plain of South Carolina, and also across parts of north-central Texas. Isolated hail and damaging winds should be the main hazards for both areas. ...Florida into the Carolinas... A core of a strong belt of southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to gradually overspread a pre-frontal region from the Carolinas into north FL during the day. Coincident with the strengthening flow, a large-scale trough initially over TX, will pivot east and reach AL by early Thursday morning. Early-day convection and related cloudiness will likely delay stronger heating, but cloud breaks and a cessation of precip will lead to weak to locally moderate destabilization during peak heating. Strengthening flow fields will support storm organization with any robust updrafts. Models continue to show episodic convection throughout the day, which lends some uncertainty when the potential for stronger storms will occur. Isolated damaging gusts (peaking in the 50-65 mph range) and severe hail (1.0-1.5 inches in diameter) are possible. The risk for stronger storms may persist into the late evening near the Carolina coast. ...Parts of north into central TX... Despite generally meager low-level moisture across the region, cold temperatures aloft (500 mb temperatures around -25C) in the vicinity of the mid-level trough axis, will support weak buoyancy (250-750 J/kg MLCAPE) from north into central TX. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected by late afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, and a southeastward-moving supercell or two will be possible. Hail may be the most likely hazard, given the cold temperature profiles, but steep lapse rates could also support isolated severe gusts. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 03/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN OF SOUTH CAROLINA...AND ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across north Florida into the coastal plain of South Carolina, and also across parts of north-central Texas. Isolated hail and damaging winds should be the main hazards for both areas. ...Florida into the Carolinas... A core of a strong belt of southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to gradually overspread a pre-frontal region from the Carolinas into north FL during the day. Coincident with the strengthening flow, a large-scale trough initially over TX, will pivot east and reach AL by early Thursday morning. Early-day convection and related cloudiness will likely delay stronger heating, but cloud breaks and a cessation of precip will lead to weak to locally moderate destabilization during peak heating. Strengthening flow fields will support storm organization with any robust updrafts. Models continue to show episodic convection throughout the day, which lends some uncertainty when the potential for stronger storms will occur. Isolated damaging gusts (peaking in the 50-65 mph range) and severe hail (1.0-1.5 inches in diameter) are possible. The risk for stronger storms may persist into the late evening near the Carolina coast. ...Parts of north into central TX... Despite generally meager low-level moisture across the region, cold temperatures aloft (500 mb temperatures around -25C) in the vicinity of the mid-level trough axis, will support weak buoyancy (250-750 J/kg MLCAPE) from north into central TX. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected by late afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, and a southeastward-moving supercell or two will be possible. Hail may be the most likely hazard, given the cold temperature profiles, but steep lapse rates could also support isolated severe gusts. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 03/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN OF SOUTH CAROLINA...AND ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across north Florida into the coastal plain of South Carolina, and also across parts of north-central Texas. Isolated hail and damaging winds should be the main hazards for both areas. ...Florida into the Carolinas... A core of a strong belt of southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to gradually overspread a pre-frontal region from the Carolinas into north FL during the day. Coincident with the strengthening flow, a large-scale trough initially over TX, will pivot east and reach AL by early Thursday morning. Early-day convection and related cloudiness will likely delay stronger heating, but cloud breaks and a cessation of precip will lead to weak to locally moderate destabilization during peak heating. Strengthening flow fields will support storm organization with any robust updrafts. Models continue to show episodic convection throughout the day, which lends some uncertainty when the potential for stronger storms will occur. Isolated damaging gusts (peaking in the 50-65 mph range) and severe hail (1.0-1.5 inches in diameter) are possible. The risk for stronger storms may persist into the late evening near the Carolina coast. ...Parts of north into central TX... Despite generally meager low-level moisture across the region, cold temperatures aloft (500 mb temperatures around -25C) in the vicinity of the mid-level trough axis, will support weak buoyancy (250-750 J/kg MLCAPE) from north into central TX. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected by late afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, and a southeastward-moving supercell or two will be possible. Hail may be the most likely hazard, given the cold temperature profiles, but steep lapse rates could also support isolated severe gusts. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 03/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN OF SOUTH CAROLINA...AND ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across north Florida into the coastal plain of South Carolina, and also across parts of north-central Texas. Isolated hail and damaging winds should be the main hazards for both areas. ...Florida into the Carolinas... A core of a strong belt of southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to gradually overspread a pre-frontal region from the Carolinas into north FL during the day. Coincident with the strengthening flow, a large-scale trough initially over TX, will pivot east and reach AL by early Thursday morning. Early-day convection and related cloudiness will likely delay stronger heating, but cloud breaks and a cessation of precip will lead to weak to locally moderate destabilization during peak heating. Strengthening flow fields will support storm organization with any robust updrafts. Models continue to show episodic convection throughout the day, which lends some uncertainty when the potential for stronger storms will occur. Isolated damaging gusts (peaking in the 50-65 mph range) and severe hail (1.0-1.5 inches in diameter) are possible. The risk for stronger storms may persist into the late evening near the Carolina coast. ...Parts of north into central TX... Despite generally meager low-level moisture across the region, cold temperatures aloft (500 mb temperatures around -25C) in the vicinity of the mid-level trough axis, will support weak buoyancy (250-750 J/kg MLCAPE) from north into central TX. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected by late afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, and a southeastward-moving supercell or two will be possible. Hail may be the most likely hazard, given the cold temperature profiles, but steep lapse rates could also support isolated severe gusts. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 03/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN OF SOUTH CAROLINA...AND ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across north Florida into the coastal plain of South Carolina, and also across parts of north-central Texas. Isolated hail and damaging winds should be the main hazards for both areas. ...Florida into the Carolinas... A core of a strong belt of southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to gradually overspread a pre-frontal region from the Carolinas into north FL during the day. Coincident with the strengthening flow, a large-scale trough initially over TX, will pivot east and reach AL by early Thursday morning. Early-day convection and related cloudiness will likely delay stronger heating, but cloud breaks and a cessation of precip will lead to weak to locally moderate destabilization during peak heating. Strengthening flow fields will support storm organization with any robust updrafts. Models continue to show episodic convection throughout the day, which lends some uncertainty when the potential for stronger storms will occur. Isolated damaging gusts (peaking in the 50-65 mph range) and severe hail (1.0-1.5 inches in diameter) are possible. The risk for stronger storms may persist into the late evening near the Carolina coast. ...Parts of north into central TX... Despite generally meager low-level moisture across the region, cold temperatures aloft (500 mb temperatures around -25C) in the vicinity of the mid-level trough axis, will support weak buoyancy (250-750 J/kg MLCAPE) from north into central TX. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected by late afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, and a southeastward-moving supercell or two will be possible. Hail may be the most likely hazard, given the cold temperature profiles, but steep lapse rates could also support isolated severe gusts. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 03/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN OF SOUTH CAROLINA...AND ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across north Florida into the coastal plain of South Carolina, and also across parts of north-central Texas. Isolated hail and damaging winds should be the main hazards for both areas. ...Florida into the Carolinas... A core of a strong belt of southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to gradually overspread a pre-frontal region from the Carolinas into north FL during the day. Coincident with the strengthening flow, a large-scale trough initially over TX, will pivot east and reach AL by early Thursday morning. Early-day convection and related cloudiness will likely delay stronger heating, but cloud breaks and a cessation of precip will lead to weak to locally moderate destabilization during peak heating. Strengthening flow fields will support storm organization with any robust updrafts. Models continue to show episodic convection throughout the day, which lends some uncertainty when the potential for stronger storms will occur. Isolated damaging gusts (peaking in the 50-65 mph range) and severe hail (1.0-1.5 inches in diameter) are possible. The risk for stronger storms may persist into the late evening near the Carolina coast. ...Parts of north into central TX... Despite generally meager low-level moisture across the region, cold temperatures aloft (500 mb temperatures around -25C) in the vicinity of the mid-level trough axis, will support weak buoyancy (250-750 J/kg MLCAPE) from north into central TX. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected by late afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, and a southeastward-moving supercell or two will be possible. Hail may be the most likely hazard, given the cold temperature profiles, but steep lapse rates could also support isolated severe gusts. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 03/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST GULF COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... An isolated threat for damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado may continue tonight in the northeast Gulf Coastal Plain. ...Northeast Gulf Coast... Primary mid to upper trough and embedded disturbances remain displaced away from the region (i.e., Great Lakes and Midwest) through tonight. Broad, strong belt of southwesterly mid-level flow extends from the base of the larger-scale trough over South TX northeastward across the northern Gulf and into the Southeast. Ahead of a largely stalled cold front over the northern Gulf and central Gulf Coast, a maritime airmass featuring lower 60s dewpoints resides over the northeast Gulf Coast. The 00z Tallahassee observed sounding showed a deep moist layer with weak low-level lapse rates and weak buoyancy (400 J/kg MLCAPE). A persistent zone of low-level warm-air advection will seemingly be the primary impetus for sporadic storm development this evening into the overnight. If a few stronger storms can become sustained, a localized risk for wind damage and perhaps a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Elsewhere, diminishing instability with frontal-related convection over eastern Lower MI and OH will continue to wane over the next hour. Severe thunderstorms are not expected with this activity. ..Smith.. 03/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST GULF COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... An isolated threat for damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado may continue tonight in the northeast Gulf Coastal Plain. ...Northeast Gulf Coast... Primary mid to upper trough and embedded disturbances remain displaced away from the region (i.e., Great Lakes and Midwest) through tonight. Broad, strong belt of southwesterly mid-level flow extends from the base of the larger-scale trough over South TX northeastward across the northern Gulf and into the Southeast. Ahead of a largely stalled cold front over the northern Gulf and central Gulf Coast, a maritime airmass featuring lower 60s dewpoints resides over the northeast Gulf Coast. The 00z Tallahassee observed sounding showed a deep moist layer with weak low-level lapse rates and weak buoyancy (400 J/kg MLCAPE). A persistent zone of low-level warm-air advection will seemingly be the primary impetus for sporadic storm development this evening into the overnight. If a few stronger storms can become sustained, a localized risk for wind damage and perhaps a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Elsewhere, diminishing instability with frontal-related convection over eastern Lower MI and OH will continue to wane over the next hour. Severe thunderstorms are not expected with this activity. ..Smith.. 03/27/2024 Read more