Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST GULF COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... An isolated threat for damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado may continue tonight in the northeast Gulf Coastal Plain. ...Northeast Gulf Coast... Primary mid to upper trough and embedded disturbances remain displaced away from the region (i.e., Great Lakes and Midwest) through tonight. Broad, strong belt of southwesterly mid-level flow extends from the base of the larger-scale trough over South TX northeastward across the northern Gulf and into the Southeast. Ahead of a largely stalled cold front over the northern Gulf and central Gulf Coast, a maritime airmass featuring lower 60s dewpoints resides over the northeast Gulf Coast. The 00z Tallahassee observed sounding showed a deep moist layer with weak low-level lapse rates and weak buoyancy (400 J/kg MLCAPE). A persistent zone of low-level warm-air advection will seemingly be the primary impetus for sporadic storm development this evening into the overnight. If a few stronger storms can become sustained, a localized risk for wind damage and perhaps a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Elsewhere, diminishing instability with frontal-related convection over eastern Lower MI and OH will continue to wane over the next hour. Severe thunderstorms are not expected with this activity. ..Smith.. 03/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST GULF COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... An isolated threat for damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado may continue tonight in the northeast Gulf Coastal Plain. ...Northeast Gulf Coast... Primary mid to upper trough and embedded disturbances remain displaced away from the region (i.e., Great Lakes and Midwest) through tonight. Broad, strong belt of southwesterly mid-level flow extends from the base of the larger-scale trough over South TX northeastward across the northern Gulf and into the Southeast. Ahead of a largely stalled cold front over the northern Gulf and central Gulf Coast, a maritime airmass featuring lower 60s dewpoints resides over the northeast Gulf Coast. The 00z Tallahassee observed sounding showed a deep moist layer with weak low-level lapse rates and weak buoyancy (400 J/kg MLCAPE). A persistent zone of low-level warm-air advection will seemingly be the primary impetus for sporadic storm development this evening into the overnight. If a few stronger storms can become sustained, a localized risk for wind damage and perhaps a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Elsewhere, diminishing instability with frontal-related convection over eastern Lower MI and OH will continue to wane over the next hour. Severe thunderstorms are not expected with this activity. ..Smith.. 03/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST GULF COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... An isolated threat for damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado may continue tonight in the northeast Gulf Coastal Plain. ...Northeast Gulf Coast... Primary mid to upper trough and embedded disturbances remain displaced away from the region (i.e., Great Lakes and Midwest) through tonight. Broad, strong belt of southwesterly mid-level flow extends from the base of the larger-scale trough over South TX northeastward across the northern Gulf and into the Southeast. Ahead of a largely stalled cold front over the northern Gulf and central Gulf Coast, a maritime airmass featuring lower 60s dewpoints resides over the northeast Gulf Coast. The 00z Tallahassee observed sounding showed a deep moist layer with weak low-level lapse rates and weak buoyancy (400 J/kg MLCAPE). A persistent zone of low-level warm-air advection will seemingly be the primary impetus for sporadic storm development this evening into the overnight. If a few stronger storms can become sustained, a localized risk for wind damage and perhaps a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Elsewhere, diminishing instability with frontal-related convection over eastern Lower MI and OH will continue to wane over the next hour. Severe thunderstorms are not expected with this activity. ..Smith.. 03/27/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Mar 26 22:33:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Mar 26 22:33:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0427 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Mid-level flow is forecast to amplify over the CONUS from midweek this week into early next week. An upper trough/low should dig southward along/near the West Coast with strong southwesterly flow aloft overspreading the Southwest and southern Plains. A lee trough will develop and intensify late this week into the weekend supporting dry and breezy conditions over west TX and eastern NM. Critical fire-weather conditions are possible, but confidence in spatial coverage and intensity remains low. ...Southern High Plains... As northwest flow begins to shift more west/southwesterly midweek this week, fire-weather potential is generally expected to increase across parts of the Southern High Plains. A strengthening lee trough is expected to develop D3/Thur aiding in gusty southwest surface winds of 15-25 mph across parts of the northwestern TX Panhandle and eastern NM. Colocated with afternoon RH minimums of 15-20%, elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely to develop. Confidence in the dryness of area fuels remains lower in the wake of an earlier frontal passage, but sufficient fuel loading and drying ahead of time should support some risk for fire concerns. Confidence in fire-weather potential continues to increase D4/Fri through D6/Sun as flow aloft strengthens and becomes more southwesterly ahead of the Pacific trough. Several days of drying in the wake of the frontal passage should allow for more receptive fuels across parts of the southern High Plains. Afternoon RH minimums near 10-15% and gusty winds of 15-25 mph appear likely to support elevated to near-critical fire-weather through the weekend. A lee low developing by D5/Sat may also allow for surface winds strong enough to support more widespread critical fire conditions, especially D6/Sun. Fire-weather concerns will likely continue into early next week as strong flow aloft lingers over the southern Plains. However, confidence in any particular model solution is low. D7/Monday appears to have higher potential for elevated to critical concerns ahead of a forecast cold front over the southern Plains. However, with uncertainty high, probabilities will be withheld for now with the expectation that some fire-weather risk may emerge as guidance improves. ..Lyons.. 03/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0427 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Mid-level flow is forecast to amplify over the CONUS from midweek this week into early next week. An upper trough/low should dig southward along/near the West Coast with strong southwesterly flow aloft overspreading the Southwest and southern Plains. A lee trough will develop and intensify late this week into the weekend supporting dry and breezy conditions over west TX and eastern NM. Critical fire-weather conditions are possible, but confidence in spatial coverage and intensity remains low. ...Southern High Plains... As northwest flow begins to shift more west/southwesterly midweek this week, fire-weather potential is generally expected to increase across parts of the Southern High Plains. A strengthening lee trough is expected to develop D3/Thur aiding in gusty southwest surface winds of 15-25 mph across parts of the northwestern TX Panhandle and eastern NM. Colocated with afternoon RH minimums of 15-20%, elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely to develop. Confidence in the dryness of area fuels remains lower in the wake of an earlier frontal passage, but sufficient fuel loading and drying ahead of time should support some risk for fire concerns. Confidence in fire-weather potential continues to increase D4/Fri through D6/Sun as flow aloft strengthens and becomes more southwesterly ahead of the Pacific trough. Several days of drying in the wake of the frontal passage should allow for more receptive fuels across parts of the southern High Plains. Afternoon RH minimums near 10-15% and gusty winds of 15-25 mph appear likely to support elevated to near-critical fire-weather through the weekend. A lee low developing by D5/Sat may also allow for surface winds strong enough to support more widespread critical fire conditions, especially D6/Sun. Fire-weather concerns will likely continue into early next week as strong flow aloft lingers over the southern Plains. However, confidence in any particular model solution is low. D7/Monday appears to have higher potential for elevated to critical concerns ahead of a forecast cold front over the southern Plains. However, with uncertainty high, probabilities will be withheld for now with the expectation that some fire-weather risk may emerge as guidance improves. ..Lyons.. 03/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0427 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Mid-level flow is forecast to amplify over the CONUS from midweek this week into early next week. An upper trough/low should dig southward along/near the West Coast with strong southwesterly flow aloft overspreading the Southwest and southern Plains. A lee trough will develop and intensify late this week into the weekend supporting dry and breezy conditions over west TX and eastern NM. Critical fire-weather conditions are possible, but confidence in spatial coverage and intensity remains low. ...Southern High Plains... As northwest flow begins to shift more west/southwesterly midweek this week, fire-weather potential is generally expected to increase across parts of the Southern High Plains. A strengthening lee trough is expected to develop D3/Thur aiding in gusty southwest surface winds of 15-25 mph across parts of the northwestern TX Panhandle and eastern NM. Colocated with afternoon RH minimums of 15-20%, elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely to develop. Confidence in the dryness of area fuels remains lower in the wake of an earlier frontal passage, but sufficient fuel loading and drying ahead of time should support some risk for fire concerns. Confidence in fire-weather potential continues to increase D4/Fri through D6/Sun as flow aloft strengthens and becomes more southwesterly ahead of the Pacific trough. Several days of drying in the wake of the frontal passage should allow for more receptive fuels across parts of the southern High Plains. Afternoon RH minimums near 10-15% and gusty winds of 15-25 mph appear likely to support elevated to near-critical fire-weather through the weekend. A lee low developing by D5/Sat may also allow for surface winds strong enough to support more widespread critical fire conditions, especially D6/Sun. Fire-weather concerns will likely continue into early next week as strong flow aloft lingers over the southern Plains. However, confidence in any particular model solution is low. D7/Monday appears to have higher potential for elevated to critical concerns ahead of a forecast cold front over the southern Plains. However, with uncertainty high, probabilities will be withheld for now with the expectation that some fire-weather risk may emerge as guidance improves. ..Lyons.. 03/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0427 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Mid-level flow is forecast to amplify over the CONUS from midweek this week into early next week. An upper trough/low should dig southward along/near the West Coast with strong southwesterly flow aloft overspreading the Southwest and southern Plains. A lee trough will develop and intensify late this week into the weekend supporting dry and breezy conditions over west TX and eastern NM. Critical fire-weather conditions are possible, but confidence in spatial coverage and intensity remains low. ...Southern High Plains... As northwest flow begins to shift more west/southwesterly midweek this week, fire-weather potential is generally expected to increase across parts of the Southern High Plains. A strengthening lee trough is expected to develop D3/Thur aiding in gusty southwest surface winds of 15-25 mph across parts of the northwestern TX Panhandle and eastern NM. Colocated with afternoon RH minimums of 15-20%, elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely to develop. Confidence in the dryness of area fuels remains lower in the wake of an earlier frontal passage, but sufficient fuel loading and drying ahead of time should support some risk for fire concerns. Confidence in fire-weather potential continues to increase D4/Fri through D6/Sun as flow aloft strengthens and becomes more southwesterly ahead of the Pacific trough. Several days of drying in the wake of the frontal passage should allow for more receptive fuels across parts of the southern High Plains. Afternoon RH minimums near 10-15% and gusty winds of 15-25 mph appear likely to support elevated to near-critical fire-weather through the weekend. A lee low developing by D5/Sat may also allow for surface winds strong enough to support more widespread critical fire conditions, especially D6/Sun. Fire-weather concerns will likely continue into early next week as strong flow aloft lingers over the southern Plains. However, confidence in any particular model solution is low. D7/Monday appears to have higher potential for elevated to critical concerns ahead of a forecast cold front over the southern Plains. However, with uncertainty high, probabilities will be withheld for now with the expectation that some fire-weather risk may emerge as guidance improves. ..Lyons.. 03/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0427 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Mid-level flow is forecast to amplify over the CONUS from midweek this week into early next week. An upper trough/low should dig southward along/near the West Coast with strong southwesterly flow aloft overspreading the Southwest and southern Plains. A lee trough will develop and intensify late this week into the weekend supporting dry and breezy conditions over west TX and eastern NM. Critical fire-weather conditions are possible, but confidence in spatial coverage and intensity remains low. ...Southern High Plains... As northwest flow begins to shift more west/southwesterly midweek this week, fire-weather potential is generally expected to increase across parts of the Southern High Plains. A strengthening lee trough is expected to develop D3/Thur aiding in gusty southwest surface winds of 15-25 mph across parts of the northwestern TX Panhandle and eastern NM. Colocated with afternoon RH minimums of 15-20%, elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely to develop. Confidence in the dryness of area fuels remains lower in the wake of an earlier frontal passage, but sufficient fuel loading and drying ahead of time should support some risk for fire concerns. Confidence in fire-weather potential continues to increase D4/Fri through D6/Sun as flow aloft strengthens and becomes more southwesterly ahead of the Pacific trough. Several days of drying in the wake of the frontal passage should allow for more receptive fuels across parts of the southern High Plains. Afternoon RH minimums near 10-15% and gusty winds of 15-25 mph appear likely to support elevated to near-critical fire-weather through the weekend. A lee low developing by D5/Sat may also allow for surface winds strong enough to support more widespread critical fire conditions, especially D6/Sun. Fire-weather concerns will likely continue into early next week as strong flow aloft lingers over the southern Plains. However, confidence in any particular model solution is low. D7/Monday appears to have higher potential for elevated to critical concerns ahead of a forecast cold front over the southern Plains. However, with uncertainty high, probabilities will be withheld for now with the expectation that some fire-weather risk may emerge as guidance improves. ..Lyons.. 03/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN...EASTERN INDIANA...AND WESTERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts remain possible late this afternoon into the evening over parts of the Lower Michigan/southern Great Lakes region, and the eastern Gulf Coastal Plain. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities have been trimmed across parts of IN and southwest lower MI, in the wake of a cold frontal passage. Otherwise, no changes have been made. See the previous discussion below and MCD 307 for more details. A small part of the Marginal Risk has been trimmed across the FL Panhandle, based on the progression of ongoing convection. See the previous discussion below for more details regarding the threat across the FL Peninsula and south GA. ..Dean.. 03/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024/ ...FL Panhandle and Vicinity... A surface cold front continues to sag southward across parts of AL and the FL Panhandle. Scattered thunderstorms are occurring along the front (mainly offshore), with occasional updrafts showing some organization. It is expected that the bulk of this activity will remain offshore due to widespread clouds and limited destabilization inland. However, there is some chance of a strong storm or two this afternoon. After dark, most model guidance suggest the frontal convection will strengthen, with a continued risk of a few strong storms into north FL. ...Lower MI/IN/Western OH... A strong cold front is sweeping eastward into western IN late this morning, and will move across Lower MI/IN/western OH through the day. Widespread clouds and meager low-level moisture ahead of the front will limit destabilization, with forecast soundings suggesting the convective layer may remain too shallow to support much lightning. Nevertheless, strong winds just above the surface coupled with cold temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few strong storms later today, capable of damaging wind gusts. The time period of greatest concern should roughly be from 22-02z. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN...EASTERN INDIANA...AND WESTERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts remain possible late this afternoon into the evening over parts of the Lower Michigan/southern Great Lakes region, and the eastern Gulf Coastal Plain. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities have been trimmed across parts of IN and southwest lower MI, in the wake of a cold frontal passage. Otherwise, no changes have been made. See the previous discussion below and MCD 307 for more details. A small part of the Marginal Risk has been trimmed across the FL Panhandle, based on the progression of ongoing convection. See the previous discussion below for more details regarding the threat across the FL Peninsula and south GA. ..Dean.. 03/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024/ ...FL Panhandle and Vicinity... A surface cold front continues to sag southward across parts of AL and the FL Panhandle. Scattered thunderstorms are occurring along the front (mainly offshore), with occasional updrafts showing some organization. It is expected that the bulk of this activity will remain offshore due to widespread clouds and limited destabilization inland. However, there is some chance of a strong storm or two this afternoon. After dark, most model guidance suggest the frontal convection will strengthen, with a continued risk of a few strong storms into north FL. ...Lower MI/IN/Western OH... A strong cold front is sweeping eastward into western IN late this morning, and will move across Lower MI/IN/western OH through the day. Widespread clouds and meager low-level moisture ahead of the front will limit destabilization, with forecast soundings suggesting the convective layer may remain too shallow to support much lightning. Nevertheless, strong winds just above the surface coupled with cold temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few strong storms later today, capable of damaging wind gusts. The time period of greatest concern should roughly be from 22-02z. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN...EASTERN INDIANA...AND WESTERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts remain possible late this afternoon into the evening over parts of the Lower Michigan/southern Great Lakes region, and the eastern Gulf Coastal Plain. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities have been trimmed across parts of IN and southwest lower MI, in the wake of a cold frontal passage. Otherwise, no changes have been made. See the previous discussion below and MCD 307 for more details. A small part of the Marginal Risk has been trimmed across the FL Panhandle, based on the progression of ongoing convection. See the previous discussion below for more details regarding the threat across the FL Peninsula and south GA. ..Dean.. 03/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024/ ...FL Panhandle and Vicinity... A surface cold front continues to sag southward across parts of AL and the FL Panhandle. Scattered thunderstorms are occurring along the front (mainly offshore), with occasional updrafts showing some organization. It is expected that the bulk of this activity will remain offshore due to widespread clouds and limited destabilization inland. However, there is some chance of a strong storm or two this afternoon. After dark, most model guidance suggest the frontal convection will strengthen, with a continued risk of a few strong storms into north FL. ...Lower MI/IN/Western OH... A strong cold front is sweeping eastward into western IN late this morning, and will move across Lower MI/IN/western OH through the day. Widespread clouds and meager low-level moisture ahead of the front will limit destabilization, with forecast soundings suggesting the convective layer may remain too shallow to support much lightning. Nevertheless, strong winds just above the surface coupled with cold temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few strong storms later today, capable of damaging wind gusts. The time period of greatest concern should roughly be from 22-02z. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN...EASTERN INDIANA...AND WESTERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts remain possible late this afternoon into the evening over parts of the Lower Michigan/southern Great Lakes region, and the eastern Gulf Coastal Plain. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities have been trimmed across parts of IN and southwest lower MI, in the wake of a cold frontal passage. Otherwise, no changes have been made. See the previous discussion below and MCD 307 for more details. A small part of the Marginal Risk has been trimmed across the FL Panhandle, based on the progression of ongoing convection. See the previous discussion below for more details regarding the threat across the FL Peninsula and south GA. ..Dean.. 03/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024/ ...FL Panhandle and Vicinity... A surface cold front continues to sag southward across parts of AL and the FL Panhandle. Scattered thunderstorms are occurring along the front (mainly offshore), with occasional updrafts showing some organization. It is expected that the bulk of this activity will remain offshore due to widespread clouds and limited destabilization inland. However, there is some chance of a strong storm or two this afternoon. After dark, most model guidance suggest the frontal convection will strengthen, with a continued risk of a few strong storms into north FL. ...Lower MI/IN/Western OH... A strong cold front is sweeping eastward into western IN late this morning, and will move across Lower MI/IN/western OH through the day. Widespread clouds and meager low-level moisture ahead of the front will limit destabilization, with forecast soundings suggesting the convective layer may remain too shallow to support much lightning. Nevertheless, strong winds just above the surface coupled with cold temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few strong storms later today, capable of damaging wind gusts. The time period of greatest concern should roughly be from 22-02z. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN...EASTERN INDIANA...AND WESTERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts remain possible late this afternoon into the evening over parts of the Lower Michigan/southern Great Lakes region, and the eastern Gulf Coastal Plain. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities have been trimmed across parts of IN and southwest lower MI, in the wake of a cold frontal passage. Otherwise, no changes have been made. See the previous discussion below and MCD 307 for more details. A small part of the Marginal Risk has been trimmed across the FL Panhandle, based on the progression of ongoing convection. See the previous discussion below for more details regarding the threat across the FL Peninsula and south GA. ..Dean.. 03/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024/ ...FL Panhandle and Vicinity... A surface cold front continues to sag southward across parts of AL and the FL Panhandle. Scattered thunderstorms are occurring along the front (mainly offshore), with occasional updrafts showing some organization. It is expected that the bulk of this activity will remain offshore due to widespread clouds and limited destabilization inland. However, there is some chance of a strong storm or two this afternoon. After dark, most model guidance suggest the frontal convection will strengthen, with a continued risk of a few strong storms into north FL. ...Lower MI/IN/Western OH... A strong cold front is sweeping eastward into western IN late this morning, and will move across Lower MI/IN/western OH through the day. Widespread clouds and meager low-level moisture ahead of the front will limit destabilization, with forecast soundings suggesting the convective layer may remain too shallow to support much lightning. Nevertheless, strong winds just above the surface coupled with cold temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few strong storms later today, capable of damaging wind gusts. The time period of greatest concern should roughly be from 22-02z. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN...EASTERN INDIANA...AND WESTERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts remain possible late this afternoon into the evening over parts of the Lower Michigan/southern Great Lakes region, and the eastern Gulf Coastal Plain. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities have been trimmed across parts of IN and southwest lower MI, in the wake of a cold frontal passage. Otherwise, no changes have been made. See the previous discussion below and MCD 307 for more details. A small part of the Marginal Risk has been trimmed across the FL Panhandle, based on the progression of ongoing convection. See the previous discussion below for more details regarding the threat across the FL Peninsula and south GA. ..Dean.. 03/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024/ ...FL Panhandle and Vicinity... A surface cold front continues to sag southward across parts of AL and the FL Panhandle. Scattered thunderstorms are occurring along the front (mainly offshore), with occasional updrafts showing some organization. It is expected that the bulk of this activity will remain offshore due to widespread clouds and limited destabilization inland. However, there is some chance of a strong storm or two this afternoon. After dark, most model guidance suggest the frontal convection will strengthen, with a continued risk of a few strong storms into north FL. ...Lower MI/IN/Western OH... A strong cold front is sweeping eastward into western IN late this morning, and will move across Lower MI/IN/western OH through the day. Widespread clouds and meager low-level moisture ahead of the front will limit destabilization, with forecast soundings suggesting the convective layer may remain too shallow to support much lightning. Nevertheless, strong winds just above the surface coupled with cold temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few strong storms later today, capable of damaging wind gusts. The time period of greatest concern should roughly be from 22-02z. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN...EASTERN INDIANA...AND WESTERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts remain possible late this afternoon into the evening over parts of the Lower Michigan/southern Great Lakes region, and the eastern Gulf Coastal Plain. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities have been trimmed across parts of IN and southwest lower MI, in the wake of a cold frontal passage. Otherwise, no changes have been made. See the previous discussion below and MCD 307 for more details. A small part of the Marginal Risk has been trimmed across the FL Panhandle, based on the progression of ongoing convection. See the previous discussion below for more details regarding the threat across the FL Peninsula and south GA. ..Dean.. 03/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024/ ...FL Panhandle and Vicinity... A surface cold front continues to sag southward across parts of AL and the FL Panhandle. Scattered thunderstorms are occurring along the front (mainly offshore), with occasional updrafts showing some organization. It is expected that the bulk of this activity will remain offshore due to widespread clouds and limited destabilization inland. However, there is some chance of a strong storm or two this afternoon. After dark, most model guidance suggest the frontal convection will strengthen, with a continued risk of a few strong storms into north FL. ...Lower MI/IN/Western OH... A strong cold front is sweeping eastward into western IN late this morning, and will move across Lower MI/IN/western OH through the day. Widespread clouds and meager low-level moisture ahead of the front will limit destabilization, with forecast soundings suggesting the convective layer may remain too shallow to support much lightning. Nevertheless, strong winds just above the surface coupled with cold temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few strong storms later today, capable of damaging wind gusts. The time period of greatest concern should roughly be from 22-02z. Read more

MD 0307 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR MUCH OF LOWER MICHIGAN...NORTHEASTERN INDIANA...NORTHWESTERN OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 0307 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Areas affected...much of lower Michigan...northeastern Indiana...northwestern Ohio Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 261808Z - 262045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An increasingly organized band of showers, and developing thunderstorms, may be accompanied by increasing potential for strong to locally severe surface gusts by 4-5 PM EDT. It is still not clear that a severe weather watch is needed, but trends are being monitored for this possibility. DISCUSSION...Weak destabilization within a narrow pre-frontal corridor of low-level warming and moistening, coupled with large-scale ascent aided by warm advection, has contributed to increasing showers across western lower Michigan southward toward the Indianapolis IN vicinity. Some lightning has recently been noted southeast of South Bend, but low-level lapse rates are still relatively modest and the moistening is only contributing to very weak CAPE. This may be slow to improve, but breaks in cloud cover may allow for at least some continuing insolation during the next few hours. Perhaps more notably, within the left exit region of an intensifying mid-level jet (in excess of 100 kt around 500 mb) nosing north-northeastward through the lower Ohio Valley, strengthening low-level frontogenetic forcing is forecast along the eastward advancing front across central lower Michigan through the Indiana/Ohio border area by 20-21Z. This may support a consolidating and deepening band of convection with increasing potential to produce lightning. In the presence of fairly strong (and strongly sheared) south-southwesterly lower/mid-tropospheric flow (including 40-50+ kt mean ambient flow in the lowest 3-6 km AGL), activity may become increasingly organized. Downward mixing of momentum may contribute to potentially damaging wind gusts reaching the surface in northeastward surging segments, while the line advances eastward toward the lower Great Lakes region through late afternoon. ..Kerr/Hart.. 03/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR... LAT...LON 40428544 42978529 44938539 44928356 43948281 41398341 40408392 40428544 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...20z Update... Newest forecast guidance has shown the cold front moving slightly farther south than expected over parts of west TX. As such, the elevated area has been shifted south toward more concentrated dry and breezy conditions. Elevated fire-weather concerns remain possible over West TX and the Trans Pecos. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... The western periphery of a mid-level trough will overspread the southern High Plains tomorrow/Wednesday, encouraging weak surface low development and deep-layer northwesterly flow over portions of southeastern New Mexico into western Texas. Dry downslope winds should occur west of the surface low, promoting some wildfire-spread potential given modestly receptive fuels. By afternoon peak heating, northwesterly sustained surface winds of 15-25 mph will coincide with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours Wednesday afternoon. Since fuel ERCs are only around the 50th percentile, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...20z Update... Newest forecast guidance has shown the cold front moving slightly farther south than expected over parts of west TX. As such, the elevated area has been shifted south toward more concentrated dry and breezy conditions. Elevated fire-weather concerns remain possible over West TX and the Trans Pecos. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... The western periphery of a mid-level trough will overspread the southern High Plains tomorrow/Wednesday, encouraging weak surface low development and deep-layer northwesterly flow over portions of southeastern New Mexico into western Texas. Dry downslope winds should occur west of the surface low, promoting some wildfire-spread potential given modestly receptive fuels. By afternoon peak heating, northwesterly sustained surface winds of 15-25 mph will coincide with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours Wednesday afternoon. Since fuel ERCs are only around the 50th percentile, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more