Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are probable this afternoon across parts of the Midwest and southern Great Lakes and across portions of the central Gulf Coast today. ...OH Valley/Southern Lower MI... A potent deep-layer cyclone over the Midwest will continue northeast during the day over parts of the Upper Great Lakes. Concurrently, a surface low will occlude while a trailing frontal zone extends southward into the OH Valley. Ahead of the front, a warm conveyor will promote widespread clouds and scattered showers over the OH Valley northward into Lower MI. A plume of moderately steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (near 7 deg C/km) are forecast to protrude northeastward from the lower OH Valley into the southern Great Lakes during the day, in wake of the early clouds/rain. Cloud breaks will foster some diurnal heating with temperatures likely warmer (into the mid 50s to lower 60s) than the cool-biased NAM model depiction. Shallow convection is forecast to deepen near the front with thunderstorms gradually intensifying as the airmass becomes weakly unstable (100-300 J/kg MUCAPE). Although the 0-3km shear vector will be oriented mostly parallel to the front and resulting convection, convection-allowing models generally show an elongated low-topped thunderstorm band from IN/OH northward into Lower MI during the afternoon. Given the strength of background flow fields and the potentially adequate steepening of lapse rates immediately preceding the convection, damaging gusts (peaking in the 55-70 mph range) are possible. This activity will likely diminish during the early evening owing to the loss of daytime heating and while encountering weaker instability farther east. ...Southern AL into Southeast GA and the FL Panhandle... Ongoing convective line is expected to extend from central AL into coastal AL and the far western FL Panhandle early this morning. It is unclear whether this activity will pose a severe risk during the morning owing to the diurnal minimum in instability. Nonetheless, the airmass is forecast to destabilize during the day ahead of the line with some strengthening possible, especially during the midday to afternoon period. Damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado are the primary hazards with this activity. As upper forcing continues to be displaced from the region, a general waning in both storm organization and intensity is expected as the band of storms moves from the western to central part of the FL Panhandle. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 03/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are probable this afternoon across parts of the Midwest and southern Great Lakes and across portions of the central Gulf Coast today. ...OH Valley/Southern Lower MI... A potent deep-layer cyclone over the Midwest will continue northeast during the day over parts of the Upper Great Lakes. Concurrently, a surface low will occlude while a trailing frontal zone extends southward into the OH Valley. Ahead of the front, a warm conveyor will promote widespread clouds and scattered showers over the OH Valley northward into Lower MI. A plume of moderately steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (near 7 deg C/km) are forecast to protrude northeastward from the lower OH Valley into the southern Great Lakes during the day, in wake of the early clouds/rain. Cloud breaks will foster some diurnal heating with temperatures likely warmer (into the mid 50s to lower 60s) than the cool-biased NAM model depiction. Shallow convection is forecast to deepen near the front with thunderstorms gradually intensifying as the airmass becomes weakly unstable (100-300 J/kg MUCAPE). Although the 0-3km shear vector will be oriented mostly parallel to the front and resulting convection, convection-allowing models generally show an elongated low-topped thunderstorm band from IN/OH northward into Lower MI during the afternoon. Given the strength of background flow fields and the potentially adequate steepening of lapse rates immediately preceding the convection, damaging gusts (peaking in the 55-70 mph range) are possible. This activity will likely diminish during the early evening owing to the loss of daytime heating and while encountering weaker instability farther east. ...Southern AL into Southeast GA and the FL Panhandle... Ongoing convective line is expected to extend from central AL into coastal AL and the far western FL Panhandle early this morning. It is unclear whether this activity will pose a severe risk during the morning owing to the diurnal minimum in instability. Nonetheless, the airmass is forecast to destabilize during the day ahead of the line with some strengthening possible, especially during the midday to afternoon period. Damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado are the primary hazards with this activity. As upper forcing continues to be displaced from the region, a general waning in both storm organization and intensity is expected as the band of storms moves from the western to central part of the FL Panhandle. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 03/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are probable this afternoon across parts of the Midwest and southern Great Lakes and across portions of the central Gulf Coast today. ...OH Valley/Southern Lower MI... A potent deep-layer cyclone over the Midwest will continue northeast during the day over parts of the Upper Great Lakes. Concurrently, a surface low will occlude while a trailing frontal zone extends southward into the OH Valley. Ahead of the front, a warm conveyor will promote widespread clouds and scattered showers over the OH Valley northward into Lower MI. A plume of moderately steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (near 7 deg C/km) are forecast to protrude northeastward from the lower OH Valley into the southern Great Lakes during the day, in wake of the early clouds/rain. Cloud breaks will foster some diurnal heating with temperatures likely warmer (into the mid 50s to lower 60s) than the cool-biased NAM model depiction. Shallow convection is forecast to deepen near the front with thunderstorms gradually intensifying as the airmass becomes weakly unstable (100-300 J/kg MUCAPE). Although the 0-3km shear vector will be oriented mostly parallel to the front and resulting convection, convection-allowing models generally show an elongated low-topped thunderstorm band from IN/OH northward into Lower MI during the afternoon. Given the strength of background flow fields and the potentially adequate steepening of lapse rates immediately preceding the convection, damaging gusts (peaking in the 55-70 mph range) are possible. This activity will likely diminish during the early evening owing to the loss of daytime heating and while encountering weaker instability farther east. ...Southern AL into Southeast GA and the FL Panhandle... Ongoing convective line is expected to extend from central AL into coastal AL and the far western FL Panhandle early this morning. It is unclear whether this activity will pose a severe risk during the morning owing to the diurnal minimum in instability. Nonetheless, the airmass is forecast to destabilize during the day ahead of the line with some strengthening possible, especially during the midday to afternoon period. Damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado are the primary hazards with this activity. As upper forcing continues to be displaced from the region, a general waning in both storm organization and intensity is expected as the band of storms moves from the western to central part of the FL Panhandle. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 03/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are probable this afternoon across parts of the Midwest and southern Great Lakes and across portions of the central Gulf Coast today. ...OH Valley/Southern Lower MI... A potent deep-layer cyclone over the Midwest will continue northeast during the day over parts of the Upper Great Lakes. Concurrently, a surface low will occlude while a trailing frontal zone extends southward into the OH Valley. Ahead of the front, a warm conveyor will promote widespread clouds and scattered showers over the OH Valley northward into Lower MI. A plume of moderately steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (near 7 deg C/km) are forecast to protrude northeastward from the lower OH Valley into the southern Great Lakes during the day, in wake of the early clouds/rain. Cloud breaks will foster some diurnal heating with temperatures likely warmer (into the mid 50s to lower 60s) than the cool-biased NAM model depiction. Shallow convection is forecast to deepen near the front with thunderstorms gradually intensifying as the airmass becomes weakly unstable (100-300 J/kg MUCAPE). Although the 0-3km shear vector will be oriented mostly parallel to the front and resulting convection, convection-allowing models generally show an elongated low-topped thunderstorm band from IN/OH northward into Lower MI during the afternoon. Given the strength of background flow fields and the potentially adequate steepening of lapse rates immediately preceding the convection, damaging gusts (peaking in the 55-70 mph range) are possible. This activity will likely diminish during the early evening owing to the loss of daytime heating and while encountering weaker instability farther east. ...Southern AL into Southeast GA and the FL Panhandle... Ongoing convective line is expected to extend from central AL into coastal AL and the far western FL Panhandle early this morning. It is unclear whether this activity will pose a severe risk during the morning owing to the diurnal minimum in instability. Nonetheless, the airmass is forecast to destabilize during the day ahead of the line with some strengthening possible, especially during the midday to afternoon period. Damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado are the primary hazards with this activity. As upper forcing continues to be displaced from the region, a general waning in both storm organization and intensity is expected as the band of storms moves from the western to central part of the FL Panhandle. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 03/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are probable this afternoon across parts of the Midwest and southern Great Lakes and across portions of the central Gulf Coast today. ...OH Valley/Southern Lower MI... A potent deep-layer cyclone over the Midwest will continue northeast during the day over parts of the Upper Great Lakes. Concurrently, a surface low will occlude while a trailing frontal zone extends southward into the OH Valley. Ahead of the front, a warm conveyor will promote widespread clouds and scattered showers over the OH Valley northward into Lower MI. A plume of moderately steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (near 7 deg C/km) are forecast to protrude northeastward from the lower OH Valley into the southern Great Lakes during the day, in wake of the early clouds/rain. Cloud breaks will foster some diurnal heating with temperatures likely warmer (into the mid 50s to lower 60s) than the cool-biased NAM model depiction. Shallow convection is forecast to deepen near the front with thunderstorms gradually intensifying as the airmass becomes weakly unstable (100-300 J/kg MUCAPE). Although the 0-3km shear vector will be oriented mostly parallel to the front and resulting convection, convection-allowing models generally show an elongated low-topped thunderstorm band from IN/OH northward into Lower MI during the afternoon. Given the strength of background flow fields and the potentially adequate steepening of lapse rates immediately preceding the convection, damaging gusts (peaking in the 55-70 mph range) are possible. This activity will likely diminish during the early evening owing to the loss of daytime heating and while encountering weaker instability farther east. ...Southern AL into Southeast GA and the FL Panhandle... Ongoing convective line is expected to extend from central AL into coastal AL and the far western FL Panhandle early this morning. It is unclear whether this activity will pose a severe risk during the morning owing to the diurnal minimum in instability. Nonetheless, the airmass is forecast to destabilize during the day ahead of the line with some strengthening possible, especially during the midday to afternoon period. Damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado are the primary hazards with this activity. As upper forcing continues to be displaced from the region, a general waning in both storm organization and intensity is expected as the band of storms moves from the western to central part of the FL Panhandle. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 03/26/2024 Read more

WW 0062 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 62 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E LFT TO 20 SSW MCB TO 30 NNW PIB TO 15 W MEI TO 40 S CBM TO 20 ESE CBM. ..LEITMAN..03/26/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 62 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC063-103-105-117-260640- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE LIVINGSTON ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON MSC023-031-035-061-065-067-069-073-075-091-103-109-147-260640- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARKE COVINGTON FORREST JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE MARION NOXUBEE PEARL RIVER WALTHALL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0062 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 62 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E LFT TO 20 SSW MCB TO 30 NNW PIB TO 15 W MEI TO 40 S CBM TO 20 ESE CBM. ..LEITMAN..03/26/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 62 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC063-103-105-117-260640- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE LIVINGSTON ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON MSC023-031-035-061-065-067-069-073-075-091-103-109-147-260640- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARKE COVINGTON FORREST JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE MARION NOXUBEE PEARL RIVER WALTHALL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 62 TORNADO LA MS 252350Z - 260700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 62 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 650 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeastern Louisiana Most of the southern two-thirds of Mississippi * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 650 PM until 200 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Strong/locally severe thunderstorms will spread eastward across the lower Mississippi Valley area and central/southern Mississippi, along with adjacent portions of Louisiana, over the next several hours. Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are expected locally, along with some risk for hail with stronger storms. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 85 miles north northwest of Meridian MS to 40 miles south southwest of Mc Comb MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 61... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 45. Mean storm motion vector 23040. ...Goss Read more

WW 0062 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 62 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E LFT TO 60 NW PIB TO 45 NW MEI TO 30 W CBM. ..BROYLES..03/26/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 62 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC033-063-091-103-105-117-121-260540- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE EAST BATON ROUGE LIVINGSTON ST. HELENA ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE MSC023-031-035-061-065-067-069-073-075-077-085-087-091-099-101- 103-105-109-113-123-127-129-147-159-260540- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARKE COVINGTON FORREST JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LINCOLN LOWNDES MARION NESHOBA NEWTON NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA PEARL RIVER PIKE SCOTT SIMPSON SMITH WALTHALL WINSTON Read more

WW 0062 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 62 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE ESF TO 45 ENE HEZ TO 50 SSE GWO TO 30 ENE GWO. ..BROYLES..03/26/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 62 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC033-037-063-077-091-103-105-117-121-125-260440- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA LIVINGSTON POINTE COUPEE ST. HELENA ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA MSC005-007-019-023-025-029-031-035-037-061-065-067-069-073-075- 077-079-085-087-091-099-101-103-105-109-113-121-123-127-129-147- 157-159-260440- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AMITE ATTALA CHOCTAW CLARKE CLAY COPIAH COVINGTON FORREST FRANKLIN JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LEAKE LINCOLN LOWNDES MARION NESHOBA Read more

MD 0304 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 62... FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...FAR EASTERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0304 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0935 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Areas affected...Southern and Central Mississippi...Far Eastern Louisiana Concerning...Tornado Watch 62... Valid 260235Z - 260430Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 62 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for tornadoes and wind damage will likely continue over the next couple of hours across Tornado Watch 62. DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery from Jackson, MS shows an organized line of strong thunderstorms located across southwest and central Mississippi. This line of storms is located in weak instability along an axis of maximized low-level moisture with surface dewpoints from 65 to 70 F. On the large-scale, an 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet is passing through the Ark-La-Tex. Large-scale ascent associated with this feature is helping to support and intensify the line. In addition, the latest WSR-88D VWP from Jackson, MS has an impressive shear profile, with an increase to 65 knots in the lowest 1 km, and a large looping hodograph. This will likely support a tornado threat with embedded rotating cells within the line. The greatest threat will likely be in central Mississippi, where the combination of shear and lift appears to be maximized. Wind damage will also be possible ahead of the more intense line segments. ..Broyles.. 03/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 30749019 30848963 31308920 32178868 32878845 33328841 33578862 33638900 33638939 33528969 33178998 32669032 32049084 31499123 31189135 30849115 30759089 30749019 Read more

WW 0062 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 62 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..03/26/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 62 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC029-033-037-063-077-091-103-105-117-121-125-260240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE CONCORDIA EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA LIVINGSTON POINTE COUPEE ST. HELENA ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA MSC001-005-007-015-019-021-023-025-029-031-035-037-049-051-053- 055-061-063-065-067-069-073-075-077-079-083-085-087-089-091-097- 099-101-103-105-109-113-121-123-125-127-129-147-149-155-157-159- 163-260240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS AMITE ATTALA CARROLL CHOCTAW CLAIBORNE CLARKE CLAY COPIAH COVINGTON FORREST FRANKLIN HINDS HOLMES HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA JASPER JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER Read more

WW 0062 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 62 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..03/26/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 62 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC029-033-037-063-077-091-103-105-117-121-125-260240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE CONCORDIA EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA LIVINGSTON POINTE COUPEE ST. HELENA ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA MSC001-005-007-015-019-021-023-025-029-031-035-037-049-051-053- 055-061-063-065-067-069-073-075-077-079-083-085-087-089-091-097- 099-101-103-105-109-113-121-123-125-127-129-147-149-155-157-159- 163-260240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS AMITE ATTALA CARROLL CHOCTAW CLAIBORNE CLARKE CLAY COPIAH COVINGTON FORREST FRANKLIN HINDS HOLMES HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA JASPER JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER Read more

MD 0303 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 61... FOR EASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0303 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0624 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Areas affected...Eastern Louisiana...Southwest and West-central Mississippi Concerning...Tornado Watch 61... Valid 252324Z - 260130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 61 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat across the lower Mississippi Valley is expected to gradually increase over the next few hours. Wind damage, tornadoes and isolated large hail will be possible. New weather watch issuance will likely be needed to the east of the current watch. DISCUSSION...High-resolution radar imagery from Jackson, MS and Fort Polk, LA currently show a line of strong thunderstorms located across central and northeastern Louisiana. A weakly unstable, but moist airmass is present ahead of the line across much of the lower Mississippi Valley, where surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F. On a broader scale, water vapor imagery shows a 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet moving through south-central Texas. As this feature ejects northeastward this evening, the mass response should be maintained or may increase across the lower Mississippi Valley. This, combined with strong deep-layer shear will likely create an environment supportive of severe storms. Recent trends suggest that the line has become somewhat more organized over the last hour. The threat for wind damage, tornadoes and isolated large hail will be possible, especially with cells that are more likely surface-based to the east of the ongoing line. ..Broyles.. 03/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 31759222 31179274 30679278 30299222 30289120 30639041 31248983 31998925 32688918 33068950 33198993 33209053 32989109 32249183 31759222 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and scattered damaging thunderstorm gusts are possible through tonight over portions of the northern Gulf Coast states. ...Central Gulf Coast... Water-vapor imagery early this evening shows a potent mid- to upper-level trough centered over the central U.S. The belt of strongest mid-level flow and forcing for ascent associated with the upper trough, will focus over the mid MS Valley through tonight. However, an extensive belt of strong southwesterly flow increasing with height across the lower MS Valley has greatly enlarged hodographs as strong low-level warm-air advection continues across the central Gulf Coast through tonight. As the upper system accelerates eastward tonight into the MS Valley, a cold front will push east into the mid MS Valley southward through the lower MS Valley by daybreak. The 00z Jackson, MS raob showed weak instability early this evening with richer low-level moisture confined to the coastal plain (mid 60s deg F surface dewpoints). The low CAPE/extreme shear setup will continue to support organized line segments and perhaps several embedded supercells this evening into the overnight. An accompanying risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will seemingly continue into the late night, especially if the airmass sampled by the 00z Lake Charles raob can influence storm activity, as the convective band gradually shifts east across the central Gulf Coast states. ..Smith.. 03/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and scattered damaging thunderstorm gusts are possible through tonight over portions of the northern Gulf Coast states. ...Central Gulf Coast... Water-vapor imagery early this evening shows a potent mid- to upper-level trough centered over the central U.S. The belt of strongest mid-level flow and forcing for ascent associated with the upper trough, will focus over the mid MS Valley through tonight. However, an extensive belt of strong southwesterly flow increasing with height across the lower MS Valley has greatly enlarged hodographs as strong low-level warm-air advection continues across the central Gulf Coast through tonight. As the upper system accelerates eastward tonight into the MS Valley, a cold front will push east into the mid MS Valley southward through the lower MS Valley by daybreak. The 00z Jackson, MS raob showed weak instability early this evening with richer low-level moisture confined to the coastal plain (mid 60s deg F surface dewpoints). The low CAPE/extreme shear setup will continue to support organized line segments and perhaps several embedded supercells this evening into the overnight. An accompanying risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will seemingly continue into the late night, especially if the airmass sampled by the 00z Lake Charles raob can influence storm activity, as the convective band gradually shifts east across the central Gulf Coast states. ..Smith.. 03/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and scattered damaging thunderstorm gusts are possible through tonight over portions of the northern Gulf Coast states. ...Central Gulf Coast... Water-vapor imagery early this evening shows a potent mid- to upper-level trough centered over the central U.S. The belt of strongest mid-level flow and forcing for ascent associated with the upper trough, will focus over the mid MS Valley through tonight. However, an extensive belt of strong southwesterly flow increasing with height across the lower MS Valley has greatly enlarged hodographs as strong low-level warm-air advection continues across the central Gulf Coast through tonight. As the upper system accelerates eastward tonight into the MS Valley, a cold front will push east into the mid MS Valley southward through the lower MS Valley by daybreak. The 00z Jackson, MS raob showed weak instability early this evening with richer low-level moisture confined to the coastal plain (mid 60s deg F surface dewpoints). The low CAPE/extreme shear setup will continue to support organized line segments and perhaps several embedded supercells this evening into the overnight. An accompanying risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will seemingly continue into the late night, especially if the airmass sampled by the 00z Lake Charles raob can influence storm activity, as the convective band gradually shifts east across the central Gulf Coast states. ..Smith.. 03/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and scattered damaging thunderstorm gusts are possible through tonight over portions of the northern Gulf Coast states. ...Central Gulf Coast... Water-vapor imagery early this evening shows a potent mid- to upper-level trough centered over the central U.S. The belt of strongest mid-level flow and forcing for ascent associated with the upper trough, will focus over the mid MS Valley through tonight. However, an extensive belt of strong southwesterly flow increasing with height across the lower MS Valley has greatly enlarged hodographs as strong low-level warm-air advection continues across the central Gulf Coast through tonight. As the upper system accelerates eastward tonight into the MS Valley, a cold front will push east into the mid MS Valley southward through the lower MS Valley by daybreak. The 00z Jackson, MS raob showed weak instability early this evening with richer low-level moisture confined to the coastal plain (mid 60s deg F surface dewpoints). The low CAPE/extreme shear setup will continue to support organized line segments and perhaps several embedded supercells this evening into the overnight. An accompanying risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will seemingly continue into the late night, especially if the airmass sampled by the 00z Lake Charles raob can influence storm activity, as the convective band gradually shifts east across the central Gulf Coast states. ..Smith.. 03/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and scattered damaging thunderstorm gusts are possible through tonight over portions of the northern Gulf Coast states. ...Central Gulf Coast... Water-vapor imagery early this evening shows a potent mid- to upper-level trough centered over the central U.S. The belt of strongest mid-level flow and forcing for ascent associated with the upper trough, will focus over the mid MS Valley through tonight. However, an extensive belt of strong southwesterly flow increasing with height across the lower MS Valley has greatly enlarged hodographs as strong low-level warm-air advection continues across the central Gulf Coast through tonight. As the upper system accelerates eastward tonight into the MS Valley, a cold front will push east into the mid MS Valley southward through the lower MS Valley by daybreak. The 00z Jackson, MS raob showed weak instability early this evening with richer low-level moisture confined to the coastal plain (mid 60s deg F surface dewpoints). The low CAPE/extreme shear setup will continue to support organized line segments and perhaps several embedded supercells this evening into the overnight. An accompanying risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will seemingly continue into the late night, especially if the airmass sampled by the 00z Lake Charles raob can influence storm activity, as the convective band gradually shifts east across the central Gulf Coast states. ..Smith.. 03/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and scattered damaging thunderstorm gusts are possible through tonight over portions of the northern Gulf Coast states. ...Central Gulf Coast... Water-vapor imagery early this evening shows a potent mid- to upper-level trough centered over the central U.S. The belt of strongest mid-level flow and forcing for ascent associated with the upper trough, will focus over the mid MS Valley through tonight. However, an extensive belt of strong southwesterly flow increasing with height across the lower MS Valley has greatly enlarged hodographs as strong low-level warm-air advection continues across the central Gulf Coast through tonight. As the upper system accelerates eastward tonight into the MS Valley, a cold front will push east into the mid MS Valley southward through the lower MS Valley by daybreak. The 00z Jackson, MS raob showed weak instability early this evening with richer low-level moisture confined to the coastal plain (mid 60s deg F surface dewpoints). The low CAPE/extreme shear setup will continue to support organized line segments and perhaps several embedded supercells this evening into the overnight. An accompanying risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will seemingly continue into the late night, especially if the airmass sampled by the 00z Lake Charles raob can influence storm activity, as the convective band gradually shifts east across the central Gulf Coast states. ..Smith.. 03/26/2024 Read more