Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...20z Update... Newest forecast guidance has shown the cold front moving slightly farther south than expected over parts of west TX. As such, the elevated area has been shifted south toward more concentrated dry and breezy conditions. Elevated fire-weather concerns remain possible over West TX and the Trans Pecos. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... The western periphery of a mid-level trough will overspread the southern High Plains tomorrow/Wednesday, encouraging weak surface low development and deep-layer northwesterly flow over portions of southeastern New Mexico into western Texas. Dry downslope winds should occur west of the surface low, promoting some wildfire-spread potential given modestly receptive fuels. By afternoon peak heating, northwesterly sustained surface winds of 15-25 mph will coincide with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours Wednesday afternoon. Since fuel ERCs are only around the 50th percentile, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...20z Update... Newest forecast guidance has shown the cold front moving slightly farther south than expected over parts of west TX. As such, the elevated area has been shifted south toward more concentrated dry and breezy conditions. Elevated fire-weather concerns remain possible over West TX and the Trans Pecos. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... The western periphery of a mid-level trough will overspread the southern High Plains tomorrow/Wednesday, encouraging weak surface low development and deep-layer northwesterly flow over portions of southeastern New Mexico into western Texas. Dry downslope winds should occur west of the surface low, promoting some wildfire-spread potential given modestly receptive fuels. By afternoon peak heating, northwesterly sustained surface winds of 15-25 mph will coincide with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours Wednesday afternoon. Since fuel ERCs are only around the 50th percentile, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...20z Update... Newest forecast guidance has shown the cold front moving slightly farther south than expected over parts of west TX. As such, the elevated area has been shifted south toward more concentrated dry and breezy conditions. Elevated fire-weather concerns remain possible over West TX and the Trans Pecos. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... The western periphery of a mid-level trough will overspread the southern High Plains tomorrow/Wednesday, encouraging weak surface low development and deep-layer northwesterly flow over portions of southeastern New Mexico into western Texas. Dry downslope winds should occur west of the surface low, promoting some wildfire-spread potential given modestly receptive fuels. By afternoon peak heating, northwesterly sustained surface winds of 15-25 mph will coincide with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours Wednesday afternoon. Since fuel ERCs are only around the 50th percentile, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...20z Update... Newest forecast guidance has shown the cold front moving slightly farther south than expected over parts of west TX. As such, the elevated area has been shifted south toward more concentrated dry and breezy conditions. Elevated fire-weather concerns remain possible over West TX and the Trans Pecos. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... The western periphery of a mid-level trough will overspread the southern High Plains tomorrow/Wednesday, encouraging weak surface low development and deep-layer northwesterly flow over portions of southeastern New Mexico into western Texas. Dry downslope winds should occur west of the surface low, promoting some wildfire-spread potential given modestly receptive fuels. By afternoon peak heating, northwesterly sustained surface winds of 15-25 mph will coincide with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours Wednesday afternoon. Since fuel ERCs are only around the 50th percentile, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...20z Update... Newest forecast guidance has shown the cold front moving slightly farther south than expected over parts of west TX. As such, the elevated area has been shifted south toward more concentrated dry and breezy conditions. Elevated fire-weather concerns remain possible over West TX and the Trans Pecos. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... The western periphery of a mid-level trough will overspread the southern High Plains tomorrow/Wednesday, encouraging weak surface low development and deep-layer northwesterly flow over portions of southeastern New Mexico into western Texas. Dry downslope winds should occur west of the surface low, promoting some wildfire-spread potential given modestly receptive fuels. By afternoon peak heating, northwesterly sustained surface winds of 15-25 mph will coincide with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours Wednesday afternoon. Since fuel ERCs are only around the 50th percentile, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0306 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0306 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Areas affected...central Florida Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 261704Z - 261900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Marginal risk of wind and a tornado through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...A broken line of convection is ongoing this afternoon across southern Alabama into the central Florida Panhandle. This activity remains elevated, with surface inhibition evident from modified 12z observed soundings from Tallahassee and in forecast RAP soundings along the Gulf. In addition, extensive mid-level cloud cover remains in place across much of the Panhandle this afternoon, limiting destabilization. As a result, the most favorable warm sector remains offshore, with minimal MLCAPE observed inland. Over the next couple of hours as this convection moves eastward, a few instances of more robust embedded storms may be possible where the warm sector can creep inland. Wind profiles indicate deep layer shear around 55-60 kts. Given that convection is likely rooted above the surface, much of the low-level cyclonic curvature of hodographs will not be realized. Should the warm sector move inland and a storm could become surface based, an isolated tornado could be possible, though weak low-level lapse rates and strong surface inhibition will likely work to further inhibit this potential. Otherwise, the main threats will remain occasional gusty winds. A watch is unlikely to be needed at this time. ..Thornton/Hart.. 03/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB... LAT...LON 30458635 30858593 30958555 30918513 30548400 30268382 30138382 29808431 29598493 29688548 29748581 30048640 30178664 30458635 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across north Florida, and also across parts of north-central Texas. Isolated hail and damaging winds should be the main hazards for both areas. ...Florida into the Carolinas... A cold front is forecast to gradually move eastward across parts of Florida into the Carolinas on Wednesday, in conjunction with the southern portion of a deep upper-level trough moving into the eastern CONUS. Early-day convection and related cloudiness may tend to limit destabilization, but some diurnal heating along the eastern periphery of the morning convection may support MLCAPE increasing above 1000 J/kg by early afternoon. Favorable deep-layer shear will support potential for a few strong storms through the forecast period, with potential for isolated hail and damaging gusts. Multiple rounds of storms will be possible in some areas, with some convection lingering through the morning, and later redevelopment possible in areas where stronger heating occurs, and also potentially along the trailing cold front. Farther north, a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out from southeast GA into the coastal Carolinas vicinity, along/ahead of the cold front. However, there is greater uncertainty regarding potential for destabilization across these areas in the wake of morning convection. If some diurnal heating/destabilization can occur in advance of the front, then an isolated severe threat could eventually evolve, though uncertainty remains too high to include severe probabilities at this time. ...Parts of north into central TX... Despite generally meager low-level moisture across the region, cold temperatures aloft (500 mb temperatures around -25C) will support modest diurnal destabilization from north into central TX. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected by late afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, and a southeastward-moving supercell or two will be possible. Hail may be the most likely hazard, given the cold temperature profiles, but steep lapse rates could also support isolated strong/damaging gusts. ..Dean.. 03/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across north Florida, and also across parts of north-central Texas. Isolated hail and damaging winds should be the main hazards for both areas. ...Florida into the Carolinas... A cold front is forecast to gradually move eastward across parts of Florida into the Carolinas on Wednesday, in conjunction with the southern portion of a deep upper-level trough moving into the eastern CONUS. Early-day convection and related cloudiness may tend to limit destabilization, but some diurnal heating along the eastern periphery of the morning convection may support MLCAPE increasing above 1000 J/kg by early afternoon. Favorable deep-layer shear will support potential for a few strong storms through the forecast period, with potential for isolated hail and damaging gusts. Multiple rounds of storms will be possible in some areas, with some convection lingering through the morning, and later redevelopment possible in areas where stronger heating occurs, and also potentially along the trailing cold front. Farther north, a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out from southeast GA into the coastal Carolinas vicinity, along/ahead of the cold front. However, there is greater uncertainty regarding potential for destabilization across these areas in the wake of morning convection. If some diurnal heating/destabilization can occur in advance of the front, then an isolated severe threat could eventually evolve, though uncertainty remains too high to include severe probabilities at this time. ...Parts of north into central TX... Despite generally meager low-level moisture across the region, cold temperatures aloft (500 mb temperatures around -25C) will support modest diurnal destabilization from north into central TX. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected by late afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, and a southeastward-moving supercell or two will be possible. Hail may be the most likely hazard, given the cold temperature profiles, but steep lapse rates could also support isolated strong/damaging gusts. ..Dean.. 03/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across north Florida, and also across parts of north-central Texas. Isolated hail and damaging winds should be the main hazards for both areas. ...Florida into the Carolinas... A cold front is forecast to gradually move eastward across parts of Florida into the Carolinas on Wednesday, in conjunction with the southern portion of a deep upper-level trough moving into the eastern CONUS. Early-day convection and related cloudiness may tend to limit destabilization, but some diurnal heating along the eastern periphery of the morning convection may support MLCAPE increasing above 1000 J/kg by early afternoon. Favorable deep-layer shear will support potential for a few strong storms through the forecast period, with potential for isolated hail and damaging gusts. Multiple rounds of storms will be possible in some areas, with some convection lingering through the morning, and later redevelopment possible in areas where stronger heating occurs, and also potentially along the trailing cold front. Farther north, a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out from southeast GA into the coastal Carolinas vicinity, along/ahead of the cold front. However, there is greater uncertainty regarding potential for destabilization across these areas in the wake of morning convection. If some diurnal heating/destabilization can occur in advance of the front, then an isolated severe threat could eventually evolve, though uncertainty remains too high to include severe probabilities at this time. ...Parts of north into central TX... Despite generally meager low-level moisture across the region, cold temperatures aloft (500 mb temperatures around -25C) will support modest diurnal destabilization from north into central TX. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected by late afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, and a southeastward-moving supercell or two will be possible. Hail may be the most likely hazard, given the cold temperature profiles, but steep lapse rates could also support isolated strong/damaging gusts. ..Dean.. 03/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across north Florida, and also across parts of north-central Texas. Isolated hail and damaging winds should be the main hazards for both areas. ...Florida into the Carolinas... A cold front is forecast to gradually move eastward across parts of Florida into the Carolinas on Wednesday, in conjunction with the southern portion of a deep upper-level trough moving into the eastern CONUS. Early-day convection and related cloudiness may tend to limit destabilization, but some diurnal heating along the eastern periphery of the morning convection may support MLCAPE increasing above 1000 J/kg by early afternoon. Favorable deep-layer shear will support potential for a few strong storms through the forecast period, with potential for isolated hail and damaging gusts. Multiple rounds of storms will be possible in some areas, with some convection lingering through the morning, and later redevelopment possible in areas where stronger heating occurs, and also potentially along the trailing cold front. Farther north, a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out from southeast GA into the coastal Carolinas vicinity, along/ahead of the cold front. However, there is greater uncertainty regarding potential for destabilization across these areas in the wake of morning convection. If some diurnal heating/destabilization can occur in advance of the front, then an isolated severe threat could eventually evolve, though uncertainty remains too high to include severe probabilities at this time. ...Parts of north into central TX... Despite generally meager low-level moisture across the region, cold temperatures aloft (500 mb temperatures around -25C) will support modest diurnal destabilization from north into central TX. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected by late afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, and a southeastward-moving supercell or two will be possible. Hail may be the most likely hazard, given the cold temperature profiles, but steep lapse rates could also support isolated strong/damaging gusts. ..Dean.. 03/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across north Florida, and also across parts of north-central Texas. Isolated hail and damaging winds should be the main hazards for both areas. ...Florida into the Carolinas... A cold front is forecast to gradually move eastward across parts of Florida into the Carolinas on Wednesday, in conjunction with the southern portion of a deep upper-level trough moving into the eastern CONUS. Early-day convection and related cloudiness may tend to limit destabilization, but some diurnal heating along the eastern periphery of the morning convection may support MLCAPE increasing above 1000 J/kg by early afternoon. Favorable deep-layer shear will support potential for a few strong storms through the forecast period, with potential for isolated hail and damaging gusts. Multiple rounds of storms will be possible in some areas, with some convection lingering through the morning, and later redevelopment possible in areas where stronger heating occurs, and also potentially along the trailing cold front. Farther north, a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out from southeast GA into the coastal Carolinas vicinity, along/ahead of the cold front. However, there is greater uncertainty regarding potential for destabilization across these areas in the wake of morning convection. If some diurnal heating/destabilization can occur in advance of the front, then an isolated severe threat could eventually evolve, though uncertainty remains too high to include severe probabilities at this time. ...Parts of north into central TX... Despite generally meager low-level moisture across the region, cold temperatures aloft (500 mb temperatures around -25C) will support modest diurnal destabilization from north into central TX. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected by late afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, and a southeastward-moving supercell or two will be possible. Hail may be the most likely hazard, given the cold temperature profiles, but steep lapse rates could also support isolated strong/damaging gusts. ..Dean.. 03/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across north Florida, and also across parts of north-central Texas. Isolated hail and damaging winds should be the main hazards for both areas. ...Florida into the Carolinas... A cold front is forecast to gradually move eastward across parts of Florida into the Carolinas on Wednesday, in conjunction with the southern portion of a deep upper-level trough moving into the eastern CONUS. Early-day convection and related cloudiness may tend to limit destabilization, but some diurnal heating along the eastern periphery of the morning convection may support MLCAPE increasing above 1000 J/kg by early afternoon. Favorable deep-layer shear will support potential for a few strong storms through the forecast period, with potential for isolated hail and damaging gusts. Multiple rounds of storms will be possible in some areas, with some convection lingering through the morning, and later redevelopment possible in areas where stronger heating occurs, and also potentially along the trailing cold front. Farther north, a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out from southeast GA into the coastal Carolinas vicinity, along/ahead of the cold front. However, there is greater uncertainty regarding potential for destabilization across these areas in the wake of morning convection. If some diurnal heating/destabilization can occur in advance of the front, then an isolated severe threat could eventually evolve, though uncertainty remains too high to include severe probabilities at this time. ...Parts of north into central TX... Despite generally meager low-level moisture across the region, cold temperatures aloft (500 mb temperatures around -25C) will support modest diurnal destabilization from north into central TX. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected by late afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, and a southeastward-moving supercell or two will be possible. Hail may be the most likely hazard, given the cold temperature profiles, but steep lapse rates could also support isolated strong/damaging gusts. ..Dean.. 03/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across north Florida, and also across parts of north-central Texas. Isolated hail and damaging winds should be the main hazards for both areas. ...Florida into the Carolinas... A cold front is forecast to gradually move eastward across parts of Florida into the Carolinas on Wednesday, in conjunction with the southern portion of a deep upper-level trough moving into the eastern CONUS. Early-day convection and related cloudiness may tend to limit destabilization, but some diurnal heating along the eastern periphery of the morning convection may support MLCAPE increasing above 1000 J/kg by early afternoon. Favorable deep-layer shear will support potential for a few strong storms through the forecast period, with potential for isolated hail and damaging gusts. Multiple rounds of storms will be possible in some areas, with some convection lingering through the morning, and later redevelopment possible in areas where stronger heating occurs, and also potentially along the trailing cold front. Farther north, a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out from southeast GA into the coastal Carolinas vicinity, along/ahead of the cold front. However, there is greater uncertainty regarding potential for destabilization across these areas in the wake of morning convection. If some diurnal heating/destabilization can occur in advance of the front, then an isolated severe threat could eventually evolve, though uncertainty remains too high to include severe probabilities at this time. ...Parts of north into central TX... Despite generally meager low-level moisture across the region, cold temperatures aloft (500 mb temperatures around -25C) will support modest diurnal destabilization from north into central TX. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected by late afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, and a southeastward-moving supercell or two will be possible. Hail may be the most likely hazard, given the cold temperature profiles, but steep lapse rates could also support isolated strong/damaging gusts. ..Dean.. 03/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across north Florida, and also across parts of north-central Texas. Isolated hail and damaging winds should be the main hazards for both areas. ...Florida into the Carolinas... A cold front is forecast to gradually move eastward across parts of Florida into the Carolinas on Wednesday, in conjunction with the southern portion of a deep upper-level trough moving into the eastern CONUS. Early-day convection and related cloudiness may tend to limit destabilization, but some diurnal heating along the eastern periphery of the morning convection may support MLCAPE increasing above 1000 J/kg by early afternoon. Favorable deep-layer shear will support potential for a few strong storms through the forecast period, with potential for isolated hail and damaging gusts. Multiple rounds of storms will be possible in some areas, with some convection lingering through the morning, and later redevelopment possible in areas where stronger heating occurs, and also potentially along the trailing cold front. Farther north, a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out from southeast GA into the coastal Carolinas vicinity, along/ahead of the cold front. However, there is greater uncertainty regarding potential for destabilization across these areas in the wake of morning convection. If some diurnal heating/destabilization can occur in advance of the front, then an isolated severe threat could eventually evolve, though uncertainty remains too high to include severe probabilities at this time. ...Parts of north into central TX... Despite generally meager low-level moisture across the region, cold temperatures aloft (500 mb temperatures around -25C) will support modest diurnal destabilization from north into central TX. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected by late afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, and a southeastward-moving supercell or two will be possible. Hail may be the most likely hazard, given the cold temperature profiles, but steep lapse rates could also support isolated strong/damaging gusts. ..Dean.. 03/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across north Florida, and also across parts of north-central Texas. Isolated hail and damaging winds should be the main hazards for both areas. ...Florida into the Carolinas... A cold front is forecast to gradually move eastward across parts of Florida into the Carolinas on Wednesday, in conjunction with the southern portion of a deep upper-level trough moving into the eastern CONUS. Early-day convection and related cloudiness may tend to limit destabilization, but some diurnal heating along the eastern periphery of the morning convection may support MLCAPE increasing above 1000 J/kg by early afternoon. Favorable deep-layer shear will support potential for a few strong storms through the forecast period, with potential for isolated hail and damaging gusts. Multiple rounds of storms will be possible in some areas, with some convection lingering through the morning, and later redevelopment possible in areas where stronger heating occurs, and also potentially along the trailing cold front. Farther north, a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out from southeast GA into the coastal Carolinas vicinity, along/ahead of the cold front. However, there is greater uncertainty regarding potential for destabilization across these areas in the wake of morning convection. If some diurnal heating/destabilization can occur in advance of the front, then an isolated severe threat could eventually evolve, though uncertainty remains too high to include severe probabilities at this time. ...Parts of north into central TX... Despite generally meager low-level moisture across the region, cold temperatures aloft (500 mb temperatures around -25C) will support modest diurnal destabilization from north into central TX. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected by late afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, and a southeastward-moving supercell or two will be possible. Hail may be the most likely hazard, given the cold temperature profiles, but steep lapse rates could also support isolated strong/damaging gusts. ..Dean.. 03/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across north Florida, and also across parts of north-central Texas. Isolated hail and damaging winds should be the main hazards for both areas. ...Florida into the Carolinas... A cold front is forecast to gradually move eastward across parts of Florida into the Carolinas on Wednesday, in conjunction with the southern portion of a deep upper-level trough moving into the eastern CONUS. Early-day convection and related cloudiness may tend to limit destabilization, but some diurnal heating along the eastern periphery of the morning convection may support MLCAPE increasing above 1000 J/kg by early afternoon. Favorable deep-layer shear will support potential for a few strong storms through the forecast period, with potential for isolated hail and damaging gusts. Multiple rounds of storms will be possible in some areas, with some convection lingering through the morning, and later redevelopment possible in areas where stronger heating occurs, and also potentially along the trailing cold front. Farther north, a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out from southeast GA into the coastal Carolinas vicinity, along/ahead of the cold front. However, there is greater uncertainty regarding potential for destabilization across these areas in the wake of morning convection. If some diurnal heating/destabilization can occur in advance of the front, then an isolated severe threat could eventually evolve, though uncertainty remains too high to include severe probabilities at this time. ...Parts of north into central TX... Despite generally meager low-level moisture across the region, cold temperatures aloft (500 mb temperatures around -25C) will support modest diurnal destabilization from north into central TX. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected by late afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, and a southeastward-moving supercell or two will be possible. Hail may be the most likely hazard, given the cold temperature profiles, but steep lapse rates could also support isolated strong/damaging gusts. ..Dean.. 03/26/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, see the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will overspread the Plains states as a mid-level trough and accompanying surface low progress toward the eastern U.S. and Canada today. Generally quiescent fire weather conditions are expected for most of the U.S. One small exception may be portions of western Texas during the afternoon hours, where locally dry and breezy conditions may occur. Nonetheless, wildfire-spread potential should remain localized, since RH may not dip below 20 percent on a widespread basis. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, see the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will overspread the Plains states as a mid-level trough and accompanying surface low progress toward the eastern U.S. and Canada today. Generally quiescent fire weather conditions are expected for most of the U.S. One small exception may be portions of western Texas during the afternoon hours, where locally dry and breezy conditions may occur. Nonetheless, wildfire-spread potential should remain localized, since RH may not dip below 20 percent on a widespread basis. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, see the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will overspread the Plains states as a mid-level trough and accompanying surface low progress toward the eastern U.S. and Canada today. Generally quiescent fire weather conditions are expected for most of the U.S. One small exception may be portions of western Texas during the afternoon hours, where locally dry and breezy conditions may occur. Nonetheless, wildfire-spread potential should remain localized, since RH may not dip below 20 percent on a widespread basis. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, see the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will overspread the Plains states as a mid-level trough and accompanying surface low progress toward the eastern U.S. and Canada today. Generally quiescent fire weather conditions are expected for most of the U.S. One small exception may be portions of western Texas during the afternoon hours, where locally dry and breezy conditions may occur. Nonetheless, wildfire-spread potential should remain localized, since RH may not dip below 20 percent on a widespread basis. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more