Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and scattered damaging thunderstorm gusts are possible through tonight over portions of the northern Gulf Coast states. ...Central Gulf Coast... Water-vapor imagery early this evening shows a potent mid- to upper-level trough centered over the central U.S. The belt of strongest mid-level flow and forcing for ascent associated with the upper trough, will focus over the mid MS Valley through tonight. However, an extensive belt of strong southwesterly flow increasing with height across the lower MS Valley has greatly enlarged hodographs as strong low-level warm-air advection continues across the central Gulf Coast through tonight. As the upper system accelerates eastward tonight into the MS Valley, a cold front will push east into the mid MS Valley southward through the lower MS Valley by daybreak. The 00z Jackson, MS raob showed weak instability early this evening with richer low-level moisture confined to the coastal plain (mid 60s deg F surface dewpoints). The low CAPE/extreme shear setup will continue to support organized line segments and perhaps several embedded supercells this evening into the overnight. An accompanying risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will seemingly continue into the late night, especially if the airmass sampled by the 00z Lake Charles raob can influence storm activity, as the convective band gradually shifts east across the central Gulf Coast states. ..Smith.. 03/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and scattered damaging thunderstorm gusts are possible through tonight over portions of the northern Gulf Coast states. ...Central Gulf Coast... Water-vapor imagery early this evening shows a potent mid- to upper-level trough centered over the central U.S. The belt of strongest mid-level flow and forcing for ascent associated with the upper trough, will focus over the mid MS Valley through tonight. However, an extensive belt of strong southwesterly flow increasing with height across the lower MS Valley has greatly enlarged hodographs as strong low-level warm-air advection continues across the central Gulf Coast through tonight. As the upper system accelerates eastward tonight into the MS Valley, a cold front will push east into the mid MS Valley southward through the lower MS Valley by daybreak. The 00z Jackson, MS raob showed weak instability early this evening with richer low-level moisture confined to the coastal plain (mid 60s deg F surface dewpoints). The low CAPE/extreme shear setup will continue to support organized line segments and perhaps several embedded supercells this evening into the overnight. An accompanying risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will seemingly continue into the late night, especially if the airmass sampled by the 00z Lake Charles raob can influence storm activity, as the convective band gradually shifts east across the central Gulf Coast states. ..Smith.. 03/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and scattered damaging thunderstorm gusts are possible through tonight over portions of the northern Gulf Coast states. ...Central Gulf Coast... Water-vapor imagery early this evening shows a potent mid- to upper-level trough centered over the central U.S. The belt of strongest mid-level flow and forcing for ascent associated with the upper trough, will focus over the mid MS Valley through tonight. However, an extensive belt of strong southwesterly flow increasing with height across the lower MS Valley has greatly enlarged hodographs as strong low-level warm-air advection continues across the central Gulf Coast through tonight. As the upper system accelerates eastward tonight into the MS Valley, a cold front will push east into the mid MS Valley southward through the lower MS Valley by daybreak. The 00z Jackson, MS raob showed weak instability early this evening with richer low-level moisture confined to the coastal plain (mid 60s deg F surface dewpoints). The low CAPE/extreme shear setup will continue to support organized line segments and perhaps several embedded supercells this evening into the overnight. An accompanying risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will seemingly continue into the late night, especially if the airmass sampled by the 00z Lake Charles raob can influence storm activity, as the convective band gradually shifts east across the central Gulf Coast states. ..Smith.. 03/26/2024 Read more

WW 0061 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 61 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW LCH TO 35 NNE ESF TO 15 ESE GLH. ..BROYLES..03/26/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 61 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC003-025-035-041-053-059-065-079-107-260140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN CATAHOULA EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN JEFFERSON DAVIS LA SALLE MADISON RAPIDES TENSAS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0061 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 61 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW LCH TO 35 NNE ESF TO 15 ESE GLH. ..BROYLES..03/26/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 61 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC003-025-035-041-053-059-065-079-107-260140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN CATAHOULA EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN JEFFERSON DAVIS LA SALLE MADISON RAPIDES TENSAS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0061 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 61 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW LCH TO 35 NNE ESF TO 15 ESE GLH. ..BROYLES..03/26/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 61 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC003-025-035-041-053-059-065-079-107-260140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN CATAHOULA EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN JEFFERSON DAVIS LA SALLE MADISON RAPIDES TENSAS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0061 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 61 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW LCH TO 35 NNE ESF TO 15 ESE GLH. ..BROYLES..03/26/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 61 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC003-025-035-041-053-059-065-079-107-260140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN CATAHOULA EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN JEFFERSON DAVIS LA SALLE MADISON RAPIDES TENSAS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0061 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 61 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW LCH TO 35 NNE ESF TO 15 ESE GLH. ..BROYLES..03/26/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 61 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC003-025-035-041-053-059-065-079-107-260140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN CATAHOULA EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN JEFFERSON DAVIS LA SALLE MADISON RAPIDES TENSAS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 61 TORNADO AR LA TX 251845Z - 260100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 61 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 145 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Arkansas Western and Northern Louisiana Southeast Texas * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are beginning to intensify over southeast Texas and western Louisiana ahead of a cold front. Strong winds aloft will pose a risk of a few severe storms capable of damaging winds and a few tornadoes through the afternoon. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles south southwest of Fort Polk LA to 60 miles east northeast of El Dorado AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

WW 0062 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 62 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..03/26/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 62 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC029-033-037-063-077-091-103-105-117-121-125-260140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE CONCORDIA EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA LIVINGSTON POINTE COUPEE ST. HELENA ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA MSC001-005-007-015-019-021-023-025-029-031-035-037-049-051-053- 055-061-063-065-067-069-073-075-077-079-083-085-087-089-091-097- 099-101-103-105-109-113-121-123-125-127-129-147-149-155-157-159- 163-260140- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS AMITE ATTALA CARROLL CHOCTAW CLAIBORNE CLARKE CLAY COPIAH COVINGTON FORREST FRANKLIN HINDS HOLMES HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA JASPER JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER Read more

MD 0303 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 61... FOR EASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0303 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0624 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Areas affected...Eastern Louisiana...Southwest and West-central Mississippi Concerning...Tornado Watch 61... Valid 252324Z - 260130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 61 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat across the lower Mississippi Valley is expected to gradually increase over the next few hours. Wind damage, tornadoes and isolated large hail will be possible. New weather watch issuance will likely be needed to the east of the current watch. DISCUSSION...High-resolution radar imagery from Jackson, MS and Fort Polk, LA currently show a line of strong thunderstorms located across central and northeastern Louisiana. A weakly unstable, but moist airmass is present ahead of the line across much of the lower Mississippi Valley, where surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F. On a broader scale, water vapor imagery shows a 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet moving through south-central Texas. As this feature ejects northeastward this evening, the mass response should be maintained or may increase across the lower Mississippi Valley. This, combined with strong deep-layer shear will likely create an environment supportive of severe storms. Recent trends suggest that the line has become somewhat more organized over the last hour. The threat for wind damage, tornadoes and isolated large hail will be possible, especially with cells that are more likely surface-based to the east of the ongoing line. ..Broyles.. 03/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 31759222 31179274 30679278 30299222 30289120 30639041 31248983 31998925 32688918 33068950 33198993 33209053 32989109 32249183 31759222 Read more

WW 0062 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0062 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 62 TORNADO LA MS 252350Z - 260700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 62 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 650 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeastern Louisiana Most of the southern two-thirds of Mississippi * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 650 PM until 200 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Strong/locally severe thunderstorms will spread eastward across the lower Mississippi Valley area and central/southern Mississippi, along with adjacent portions of Louisiana, over the next several hours. Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are expected locally, along with some risk for hail with stronger storms. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 85 miles north northwest of Meridian MS to 40 miles south southwest of Mc Comb MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 61... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 45. Mean storm motion vector 23040. ...Goss Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Mar 25 22:32:02 UTC 2024.

MD 0302 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 61... FOR SOUTHWESTERN THROUGH NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0302 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Areas affected...southwestern through northeastern Louisiana Concerning...Tornado Watch 61... Valid 252017Z - 252215Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 61 continues. SUMMARY...More rapid intensification of stronger cells embedded within the developing line of storms still appears possible through 4-6 PM CDT, including the evolution of one or two supercells accompanied by increasing risk for tornadoes DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been slow to substantively intensify to this point. However, a gradual modification of the boundary-layer is ongoing, particularly in a narrow corridor in advance of the evolving line, southeast of Fort Polk through the Alexandria and Monroe vicinities, where surface dew points are likely to continue to increase through the mid/upper 60s F. Beneath 50-60 kt southerly flow in the 1-2 km AGL layer, low-level hodographs have become large and clockwise curved. Perhaps with at least some further low-level warming, inflow of more unstable air may become sufficient to support more rapid intensification of stronger cells embedded within the line. If this occurs, the environment is conducive to the evolution of supercells posing a risk for tornadoes, possibly including a strong tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 03/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 30939304 32209230 32799193 32589143 31649180 30709256 30539321 30939304 Read more

MD 0301 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWESTERN IOWA AND FAR NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0301 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Areas affected...southwestern Iowa and far northwestern Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 251938Z - 252145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Storms capable of hail, gusty wind, and an isolated tornado possible through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Low top thunderstorm development has been ongoing near the surface low and front across western Iowa into northwestern Missouri. Surface observations have shown slow warming and moistening of a relatively cool and stable boundary layer through the morning, with temperatures now in the upper 50s to mid 60s and dew points in the 50s. Though the thermal profile is marginal (around 500 J/kg MUCAPE), steep low-level lapse rates around 7-8 C/km will continue to nose into southern Iowa through the afternoon. Given the proximity of the low, steep lapse rates, and modest low-level curvature of hodographs, a funnel cloud or isolated tornado could be possible. A few instances of gusty winds or hail will be possible. A watch is unlikely to be needed at this time. ..Thornton/Hart.. 03/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX... LAT...LON 41439629 41699622 42379593 42829519 42649468 42359435 41779425 41489424 40829441 40329464 40209511 40269555 40589588 41439629 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z Amplified and progressive mid-level flow will remain in place over the CONUS supporting periodic fire-weather concerns through the extended forecast period. The deep trough over the central US will slowly move eastward while strong northwest flow aloft lingers behind it. At the surface, a cold front will move into the Southwest and slowly weaken through midweek. Shortwave ridging will intensify over the Southwest/southern Plains mid to late week ahead of a second trough deepening off the West Coast. This trough will then move onshore this weekend into early next week. Strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Desert Southwest and Southern Plains supporting gusty winds and the potential for critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern High Plains and Rio Grande Valley... Amplified northwest flow is expected to linger over the southern Great Plains through mid-late week. As the post-frontal air mass slowly modifies, dry downslope flow is expected over parts of eastern NM and west TX. Daily RH minimums of 20-25% appear likely along with increasing winds of 15-20 mph. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions appear possible D3/Wed. Shortwave ridging is expected to develop D4/Thur-D5/Friday ahead of the next mid-level trough forecast to deepen off the Pacific Coast. Westerly flow aloft is expected to remain fairly stout (45-55 kt) aiding the development of a lee trough. Gusty west/southwest winds are likely over eastern NM and parts of west TX. The low-level air mass should also continue to dry with minimum RH values of 15-20% likely. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions appear likely, especially D5/Friday as meteorological conditions overlap drying fuels. Confidence remains modest but medium-range and ensemble guidance continue to show potential for an active period of critical fire-weather conditions D6/Saturday through D8/Monday. Southwest flow is forecast to quickly increase trough the weekend as the Pacific trough deepens. Gradual deepening of the lee trough into a surface cyclone over the southern High Plains will bolster southwest surface winds through the weekend and into early next week. Coincident with warming temperatures and an increasingly dry air mass, this will likely support several days of elevated to critical fire-weather concerns. However, due to model discrepancies in, exact timing and magnitude of this remains unclear. Will maintain broad 40% probabilities until more clear solutions become evident. ..Lyons.. 03/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z Amplified and progressive mid-level flow will remain in place over the CONUS supporting periodic fire-weather concerns through the extended forecast period. The deep trough over the central US will slowly move eastward while strong northwest flow aloft lingers behind it. At the surface, a cold front will move into the Southwest and slowly weaken through midweek. Shortwave ridging will intensify over the Southwest/southern Plains mid to late week ahead of a second trough deepening off the West Coast. This trough will then move onshore this weekend into early next week. Strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Desert Southwest and Southern Plains supporting gusty winds and the potential for critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern High Plains and Rio Grande Valley... Amplified northwest flow is expected to linger over the southern Great Plains through mid-late week. As the post-frontal air mass slowly modifies, dry downslope flow is expected over parts of eastern NM and west TX. Daily RH minimums of 20-25% appear likely along with increasing winds of 15-20 mph. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions appear possible D3/Wed. Shortwave ridging is expected to develop D4/Thur-D5/Friday ahead of the next mid-level trough forecast to deepen off the Pacific Coast. Westerly flow aloft is expected to remain fairly stout (45-55 kt) aiding the development of a lee trough. Gusty west/southwest winds are likely over eastern NM and parts of west TX. The low-level air mass should also continue to dry with minimum RH values of 15-20% likely. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions appear likely, especially D5/Friday as meteorological conditions overlap drying fuels. Confidence remains modest but medium-range and ensemble guidance continue to show potential for an active period of critical fire-weather conditions D6/Saturday through D8/Monday. Southwest flow is forecast to quickly increase trough the weekend as the Pacific trough deepens. Gradual deepening of the lee trough into a surface cyclone over the southern High Plains will bolster southwest surface winds through the weekend and into early next week. Coincident with warming temperatures and an increasingly dry air mass, this will likely support several days of elevated to critical fire-weather concerns. However, due to model discrepancies in, exact timing and magnitude of this remains unclear. Will maintain broad 40% probabilities until more clear solutions become evident. ..Lyons.. 03/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z Amplified and progressive mid-level flow will remain in place over the CONUS supporting periodic fire-weather concerns through the extended forecast period. The deep trough over the central US will slowly move eastward while strong northwest flow aloft lingers behind it. At the surface, a cold front will move into the Southwest and slowly weaken through midweek. Shortwave ridging will intensify over the Southwest/southern Plains mid to late week ahead of a second trough deepening off the West Coast. This trough will then move onshore this weekend into early next week. Strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Desert Southwest and Southern Plains supporting gusty winds and the potential for critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern High Plains and Rio Grande Valley... Amplified northwest flow is expected to linger over the southern Great Plains through mid-late week. As the post-frontal air mass slowly modifies, dry downslope flow is expected over parts of eastern NM and west TX. Daily RH minimums of 20-25% appear likely along with increasing winds of 15-20 mph. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions appear possible D3/Wed. Shortwave ridging is expected to develop D4/Thur-D5/Friday ahead of the next mid-level trough forecast to deepen off the Pacific Coast. Westerly flow aloft is expected to remain fairly stout (45-55 kt) aiding the development of a lee trough. Gusty west/southwest winds are likely over eastern NM and parts of west TX. The low-level air mass should also continue to dry with minimum RH values of 15-20% likely. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions appear likely, especially D5/Friday as meteorological conditions overlap drying fuels. Confidence remains modest but medium-range and ensemble guidance continue to show potential for an active period of critical fire-weather conditions D6/Saturday through D8/Monday. Southwest flow is forecast to quickly increase trough the weekend as the Pacific trough deepens. Gradual deepening of the lee trough into a surface cyclone over the southern High Plains will bolster southwest surface winds through the weekend and into early next week. Coincident with warming temperatures and an increasingly dry air mass, this will likely support several days of elevated to critical fire-weather concerns. However, due to model discrepancies in, exact timing and magnitude of this remains unclear. Will maintain broad 40% probabilities until more clear solutions become evident. ..Lyons.. 03/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z Amplified and progressive mid-level flow will remain in place over the CONUS supporting periodic fire-weather concerns through the extended forecast period. The deep trough over the central US will slowly move eastward while strong northwest flow aloft lingers behind it. At the surface, a cold front will move into the Southwest and slowly weaken through midweek. Shortwave ridging will intensify over the Southwest/southern Plains mid to late week ahead of a second trough deepening off the West Coast. This trough will then move onshore this weekend into early next week. Strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Desert Southwest and Southern Plains supporting gusty winds and the potential for critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern High Plains and Rio Grande Valley... Amplified northwest flow is expected to linger over the southern Great Plains through mid-late week. As the post-frontal air mass slowly modifies, dry downslope flow is expected over parts of eastern NM and west TX. Daily RH minimums of 20-25% appear likely along with increasing winds of 15-20 mph. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions appear possible D3/Wed. Shortwave ridging is expected to develop D4/Thur-D5/Friday ahead of the next mid-level trough forecast to deepen off the Pacific Coast. Westerly flow aloft is expected to remain fairly stout (45-55 kt) aiding the development of a lee trough. Gusty west/southwest winds are likely over eastern NM and parts of west TX. The low-level air mass should also continue to dry with minimum RH values of 15-20% likely. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions appear likely, especially D5/Friday as meteorological conditions overlap drying fuels. Confidence remains modest but medium-range and ensemble guidance continue to show potential for an active period of critical fire-weather conditions D6/Saturday through D8/Monday. Southwest flow is forecast to quickly increase trough the weekend as the Pacific trough deepens. Gradual deepening of the lee trough into a surface cyclone over the southern High Plains will bolster southwest surface winds through the weekend and into early next week. Coincident with warming temperatures and an increasingly dry air mass, this will likely support several days of elevated to critical fire-weather concerns. However, due to model discrepancies in, exact timing and magnitude of this remains unclear. Will maintain broad 40% probabilities until more clear solutions become evident. ..Lyons.. 03/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more