Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern-stream upper trough will continue to progress eastward over the Gulf and Southeast on Thursday. A weak surface low near the NC/SC Coast should likewise develop eastward over the western Atlantic through the day, while a trailing cold front sweeps southeastward across FL. Limited low-level convergence along this front should keep any thunderstorm potential quite isolated, and the overall threat appears too low to include any severe probabilities at this time. Generally elevated thunderstorms may also occur across parts of coastal GA/SC/NC through early Thursday afternoon, as pronounced forcing for ascent associated with the upper trough overlaps weak MUCAPE. Occasional lightning flashes may also occur Thursday across parts of both the coastal and interior Northwest, as well as northern California. An upper trough is forecast to move eastward across these areas through the period, with cold mid-level temperatures (around -24 to -30C at 500 mb) aiding in weak destabilization. Limited moisture and instability are expected to preclude severe thunderstorms. ..Gleason.. 03/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern-stream upper trough will continue to progress eastward over the Gulf and Southeast on Thursday. A weak surface low near the NC/SC Coast should likewise develop eastward over the western Atlantic through the day, while a trailing cold front sweeps southeastward across FL. Limited low-level convergence along this front should keep any thunderstorm potential quite isolated, and the overall threat appears too low to include any severe probabilities at this time. Generally elevated thunderstorms may also occur across parts of coastal GA/SC/NC through early Thursday afternoon, as pronounced forcing for ascent associated with the upper trough overlaps weak MUCAPE. Occasional lightning flashes may also occur Thursday across parts of both the coastal and interior Northwest, as well as northern California. An upper trough is forecast to move eastward across these areas through the period, with cold mid-level temperatures (around -24 to -30C at 500 mb) aiding in weak destabilization. Limited moisture and instability are expected to preclude severe thunderstorms. ..Gleason.. 03/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern-stream upper trough will continue to progress eastward over the Gulf and Southeast on Thursday. A weak surface low near the NC/SC Coast should likewise develop eastward over the western Atlantic through the day, while a trailing cold front sweeps southeastward across FL. Limited low-level convergence along this front should keep any thunderstorm potential quite isolated, and the overall threat appears too low to include any severe probabilities at this time. Generally elevated thunderstorms may also occur across parts of coastal GA/SC/NC through early Thursday afternoon, as pronounced forcing for ascent associated with the upper trough overlaps weak MUCAPE. Occasional lightning flashes may also occur Thursday across parts of both the coastal and interior Northwest, as well as northern California. An upper trough is forecast to move eastward across these areas through the period, with cold mid-level temperatures (around -24 to -30C at 500 mb) aiding in weak destabilization. Limited moisture and instability are expected to preclude severe thunderstorms. ..Gleason.. 03/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern-stream upper trough will continue to progress eastward over the Gulf and Southeast on Thursday. A weak surface low near the NC/SC Coast should likewise develop eastward over the western Atlantic through the day, while a trailing cold front sweeps southeastward across FL. Limited low-level convergence along this front should keep any thunderstorm potential quite isolated, and the overall threat appears too low to include any severe probabilities at this time. Generally elevated thunderstorms may also occur across parts of coastal GA/SC/NC through early Thursday afternoon, as pronounced forcing for ascent associated with the upper trough overlaps weak MUCAPE. Occasional lightning flashes may also occur Thursday across parts of both the coastal and interior Northwest, as well as northern California. An upper trough is forecast to move eastward across these areas through the period, with cold mid-level temperatures (around -24 to -30C at 500 mb) aiding in weak destabilization. Limited moisture and instability are expected to preclude severe thunderstorms. ..Gleason.. 03/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A southern-stream upper trough will continue to progress eastward over the Gulf and Southeast on Thursday. A weak surface low near the NC/SC Coast should likewise develop eastward over the western Atlantic through the day, while a trailing cold front sweeps southeastward across FL. Limited low-level convergence along this front should keep any thunderstorm potential quite isolated, and the overall threat appears too low to include any severe probabilities at this time. Generally elevated thunderstorms may also occur across parts of coastal GA/SC/NC through early Thursday afternoon, as pronounced forcing for ascent associated with the upper trough overlaps weak MUCAPE. Occasional lightning flashes may also occur Thursday across parts of both the coastal and interior Northwest, as well as northern California. An upper trough is forecast to move eastward across these areas through the period, with cold mid-level temperatures (around -24 to -30C at 500 mb) aiding in weak destabilization. Limited moisture and instability are expected to preclude severe thunderstorms. ..Gleason.. 03/26/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... The western periphery of a mid-level trough will overspread the southern High Plains tomorrow/Wednesday, encouraging weak surface low development and deep-layer northwesterly flow over portions of southeastern New Mexico into western Texas. Dry downslope winds should occur west of the surface low, promoting some wildfire-spread potential given modestly receptive fuels. By afternoon peak heating, northwesterly sustained surface winds of 15-25 mph will coincide with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours Wednesday afternoon. Since fuel ERCs are only around the 50th percentile, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 03/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... The western periphery of a mid-level trough will overspread the southern High Plains tomorrow/Wednesday, encouraging weak surface low development and deep-layer northwesterly flow over portions of southeastern New Mexico into western Texas. Dry downslope winds should occur west of the surface low, promoting some wildfire-spread potential given modestly receptive fuels. By afternoon peak heating, northwesterly sustained surface winds of 15-25 mph will coincide with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours Wednesday afternoon. Since fuel ERCs are only around the 50th percentile, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 03/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... The western periphery of a mid-level trough will overspread the southern High Plains tomorrow/Wednesday, encouraging weak surface low development and deep-layer northwesterly flow over portions of southeastern New Mexico into western Texas. Dry downslope winds should occur west of the surface low, promoting some wildfire-spread potential given modestly receptive fuels. By afternoon peak heating, northwesterly sustained surface winds of 15-25 mph will coincide with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours Wednesday afternoon. Since fuel ERCs are only around the 50th percentile, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 03/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... The western periphery of a mid-level trough will overspread the southern High Plains tomorrow/Wednesday, encouraging weak surface low development and deep-layer northwesterly flow over portions of southeastern New Mexico into western Texas. Dry downslope winds should occur west of the surface low, promoting some wildfire-spread potential given modestly receptive fuels. By afternoon peak heating, northwesterly sustained surface winds of 15-25 mph will coincide with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours Wednesday afternoon. Since fuel ERCs are only around the 50th percentile, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 03/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... The western periphery of a mid-level trough will overspread the southern High Plains tomorrow/Wednesday, encouraging weak surface low development and deep-layer northwesterly flow over portions of southeastern New Mexico into western Texas. Dry downslope winds should occur west of the surface low, promoting some wildfire-spread potential given modestly receptive fuels. By afternoon peak heating, northwesterly sustained surface winds of 15-25 mph will coincide with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours Wednesday afternoon. Since fuel ERCs are only around the 50th percentile, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 03/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will overspread the Plains states as a mid-level trough and accompanying surface low progress toward the eastern U.S. and Canada today. Generally quiescent fire weather conditions are expected for most of the U.S. One small exception may be portions of western Texas during the afternoon hours, where locally dry and breezy conditions may occur. Nonetheless, wildfire-spread potential should remain localized, since RH may not dip below 20 percent on a widespread basis. ..Squitieri.. 03/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will overspread the Plains states as a mid-level trough and accompanying surface low progress toward the eastern U.S. and Canada today. Generally quiescent fire weather conditions are expected for most of the U.S. One small exception may be portions of western Texas during the afternoon hours, where locally dry and breezy conditions may occur. Nonetheless, wildfire-spread potential should remain localized, since RH may not dip below 20 percent on a widespread basis. ..Squitieri.. 03/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will overspread the Plains states as a mid-level trough and accompanying surface low progress toward the eastern U.S. and Canada today. Generally quiescent fire weather conditions are expected for most of the U.S. One small exception may be portions of western Texas during the afternoon hours, where locally dry and breezy conditions may occur. Nonetheless, wildfire-spread potential should remain localized, since RH may not dip below 20 percent on a widespread basis. ..Squitieri.. 03/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will overspread the Plains states as a mid-level trough and accompanying surface low progress toward the eastern U.S. and Canada today. Generally quiescent fire weather conditions are expected for most of the U.S. One small exception may be portions of western Texas during the afternoon hours, where locally dry and breezy conditions may occur. Nonetheless, wildfire-spread potential should remain localized, since RH may not dip below 20 percent on a widespread basis. ..Squitieri.. 03/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will overspread the Plains states as a mid-level trough and accompanying surface low progress toward the eastern U.S. and Canada today. Generally quiescent fire weather conditions are expected for most of the U.S. One small exception may be portions of western Texas during the afternoon hours, where locally dry and breezy conditions may occur. Nonetheless, wildfire-spread potential should remain localized, since RH may not dip below 20 percent on a widespread basis. ..Squitieri.. 03/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0305 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 62... FOR MISSISSIPPI...WESTERN ALABAMA...FAR EASTERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0305 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Areas affected...Mississippi...Western Alabama...Far Eastern Louisiana Concerning...Tornado Watch 62... Valid 260453Z - 260700Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 62 continues. SUMMARY...A wind damage and isolated tornado threat is expected to continue for a couple more hours across parts of eastern and south-central Mississippi. Weather watch issuance may be needed later tonight in parts of far southern Mississippi and southern Alabama. DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a linear MCS ongoing from east-central into southern Mississippi, with a few embedded strong to severe storms. The northern half of the line is in very weak instability with the RAP showing MLCAPE generally below 250 J/kg. An isolated wind-damage threat may persist before the northern part of the line moves into western Alabama, where the airmass is relatively stable. Farther to the south-southwest, the airmass is more unstable across parts of southeastern Mississippi, with the RAP suggesting MLCAPE is in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. In addition, RAP forecast soundings after midnight in southeast Mississippi have 0-6 km shear near 65 knots, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 500 m2/s2. As the line moves eastward across southeast Mississippi over the next few hours, this environment could support an isolated tornado threat. Damaging wind gusts will also be possible with the more intense sections of the line. ..Broyles.. 03/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 33368874 32598932 31849008 31389055 30769072 30538997 30718886 32458768 33258761 33568799 33578831 33368874 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across parts of north Florida and north-central Texas. Severe hail and occasional damaging winds should be the main threats across both areas. ...North Florida... The southern portion of an upper trough will move across the southern Plains and Southeast on Wednesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Wednesday morning along a pre-frontal convergence zone over parts of north FL and coastal GA. This activity should hinder the development of appreciable instability through much of the day as the southern-stream upper trough approaches from the west. Still, some diurnal heating should occur on the southern flank of the morning activity. This will aid the development of weak to locally moderate instability by Wednesday afternoon across parts of north FL. Gradually strengthening mid-level west-southwesterly flow through the day should also foster moderate to strong deep-layer shear, supporting convective organization. There should be a narrow spatial area of strong to severe thunderstorm potential Wednesday afternoon across parts of north FL, assuming sufficient destabilization occurs. Overall thunderstorm coverage will probably remain isolated to perhaps widely scattered. But, the strongest cores may be capable of producing isolated, marginally severe hail and/or locally damaging winds before moving off the Atlantic Coast. ...North-Central Texas... Ample daytime heating should occur through Wednesday afternoon across TX, on the backside of a southern-stream upper trough. Steep mid-level lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft are forecast to be present across the much of the southern Plains. As the boundary layer warms and becomes well mixed, most guidance shows weak instability (around 500-750 J/kg of MLCAPE) developing along/east of a weak surface trough. Even though low-level moisture is expected to remain quite limited due to a recent frontal passage, there appears to be enough instability to support at least isolated thunderstorm development across parts of north-central TX and vicinity Wednesday afternoon. Given the well-mixed boundary layer, occasional strong to severe winds may occur with the more robust downdrafts. Isolated severe hail also appears possible, as around 25-35 kt of deep-layer supports some updraft organization. This marginal hail/wind threat should subside Wednesday evening with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason.. 03/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across parts of north Florida and north-central Texas. Severe hail and occasional damaging winds should be the main threats across both areas. ...North Florida... The southern portion of an upper trough will move across the southern Plains and Southeast on Wednesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Wednesday morning along a pre-frontal convergence zone over parts of north FL and coastal GA. This activity should hinder the development of appreciable instability through much of the day as the southern-stream upper trough approaches from the west. Still, some diurnal heating should occur on the southern flank of the morning activity. This will aid the development of weak to locally moderate instability by Wednesday afternoon across parts of north FL. Gradually strengthening mid-level west-southwesterly flow through the day should also foster moderate to strong deep-layer shear, supporting convective organization. There should be a narrow spatial area of strong to severe thunderstorm potential Wednesday afternoon across parts of north FL, assuming sufficient destabilization occurs. Overall thunderstorm coverage will probably remain isolated to perhaps widely scattered. But, the strongest cores may be capable of producing isolated, marginally severe hail and/or locally damaging winds before moving off the Atlantic Coast. ...North-Central Texas... Ample daytime heating should occur through Wednesday afternoon across TX, on the backside of a southern-stream upper trough. Steep mid-level lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft are forecast to be present across the much of the southern Plains. As the boundary layer warms and becomes well mixed, most guidance shows weak instability (around 500-750 J/kg of MLCAPE) developing along/east of a weak surface trough. Even though low-level moisture is expected to remain quite limited due to a recent frontal passage, there appears to be enough instability to support at least isolated thunderstorm development across parts of north-central TX and vicinity Wednesday afternoon. Given the well-mixed boundary layer, occasional strong to severe winds may occur with the more robust downdrafts. Isolated severe hail also appears possible, as around 25-35 kt of deep-layer supports some updraft organization. This marginal hail/wind threat should subside Wednesday evening with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason.. 03/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across parts of north Florida and north-central Texas. Severe hail and occasional damaging winds should be the main threats across both areas. ...North Florida... The southern portion of an upper trough will move across the southern Plains and Southeast on Wednesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Wednesday morning along a pre-frontal convergence zone over parts of north FL and coastal GA. This activity should hinder the development of appreciable instability through much of the day as the southern-stream upper trough approaches from the west. Still, some diurnal heating should occur on the southern flank of the morning activity. This will aid the development of weak to locally moderate instability by Wednesday afternoon across parts of north FL. Gradually strengthening mid-level west-southwesterly flow through the day should also foster moderate to strong deep-layer shear, supporting convective organization. There should be a narrow spatial area of strong to severe thunderstorm potential Wednesday afternoon across parts of north FL, assuming sufficient destabilization occurs. Overall thunderstorm coverage will probably remain isolated to perhaps widely scattered. But, the strongest cores may be capable of producing isolated, marginally severe hail and/or locally damaging winds before moving off the Atlantic Coast. ...North-Central Texas... Ample daytime heating should occur through Wednesday afternoon across TX, on the backside of a southern-stream upper trough. Steep mid-level lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft are forecast to be present across the much of the southern Plains. As the boundary layer warms and becomes well mixed, most guidance shows weak instability (around 500-750 J/kg of MLCAPE) developing along/east of a weak surface trough. Even though low-level moisture is expected to remain quite limited due to a recent frontal passage, there appears to be enough instability to support at least isolated thunderstorm development across parts of north-central TX and vicinity Wednesday afternoon. Given the well-mixed boundary layer, occasional strong to severe winds may occur with the more robust downdrafts. Isolated severe hail also appears possible, as around 25-35 kt of deep-layer supports some updraft organization. This marginal hail/wind threat should subside Wednesday evening with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason.. 03/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across parts of north Florida and north-central Texas. Severe hail and occasional damaging winds should be the main threats across both areas. ...North Florida... The southern portion of an upper trough will move across the southern Plains and Southeast on Wednesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Wednesday morning along a pre-frontal convergence zone over parts of north FL and coastal GA. This activity should hinder the development of appreciable instability through much of the day as the southern-stream upper trough approaches from the west. Still, some diurnal heating should occur on the southern flank of the morning activity. This will aid the development of weak to locally moderate instability by Wednesday afternoon across parts of north FL. Gradually strengthening mid-level west-southwesterly flow through the day should also foster moderate to strong deep-layer shear, supporting convective organization. There should be a narrow spatial area of strong to severe thunderstorm potential Wednesday afternoon across parts of north FL, assuming sufficient destabilization occurs. Overall thunderstorm coverage will probably remain isolated to perhaps widely scattered. But, the strongest cores may be capable of producing isolated, marginally severe hail and/or locally damaging winds before moving off the Atlantic Coast. ...North-Central Texas... Ample daytime heating should occur through Wednesday afternoon across TX, on the backside of a southern-stream upper trough. Steep mid-level lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft are forecast to be present across the much of the southern Plains. As the boundary layer warms and becomes well mixed, most guidance shows weak instability (around 500-750 J/kg of MLCAPE) developing along/east of a weak surface trough. Even though low-level moisture is expected to remain quite limited due to a recent frontal passage, there appears to be enough instability to support at least isolated thunderstorm development across parts of north-central TX and vicinity Wednesday afternoon. Given the well-mixed boundary layer, occasional strong to severe winds may occur with the more robust downdrafts. Isolated severe hail also appears possible, as around 25-35 kt of deep-layer supports some updraft organization. This marginal hail/wind threat should subside Wednesday evening with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason.. 03/26/2024 Read more