Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A deep, closed upper low initially off the coast of central CA should move slowly southward along/near the southern CA Coast on Saturday. Cold mid-level temperatures and strong forcing for ascent associated with an enhanced mid/upper-level jet should support weak instability, and the potential for isolated lighting flashes with any low-topped convection that can develop from parts of central into southern CA. Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across this region given the meager MUCAPE forecast. Isolated thunderstorms may occur Saturday over parts of the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley, as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves east-southeastward across these areas. A weak surface low is also forecast to develop eastward over this region in tandem with the shortwave trough. Limited low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in the low 50s, should temper how much instability can develop through Saturday afternoon given the presence of modest to poor mid-level lapse rates. This will likely hinder the overall severe threat across the OH Valley, even though deep-layer shear conditionally supports the potential for organized convection. Finally, occasional lightning flashes may occur with elevated convection that develops late Saturday night into early Sunday morning across parts of NE into southwestern IA and northern MO. Low-level moisture is expected to gradually return northward across the southern/central Plains through the day, and this area will be on northern fringe of this process. Strong forcing associated with a southerly low-level jet may provide sufficient lift for parcels to reach their LFC. Still, forecast MUCAPE appears too weak to support a meaningful hail threat through the end of the period (early Sunday morning). ..Gleason.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A deep, closed upper low initially off the coast of central CA should move slowly southward along/near the southern CA Coast on Saturday. Cold mid-level temperatures and strong forcing for ascent associated with an enhanced mid/upper-level jet should support weak instability, and the potential for isolated lighting flashes with any low-topped convection that can develop from parts of central into southern CA. Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across this region given the meager MUCAPE forecast. Isolated thunderstorms may occur Saturday over parts of the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley, as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves east-southeastward across these areas. A weak surface low is also forecast to develop eastward over this region in tandem with the shortwave trough. Limited low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in the low 50s, should temper how much instability can develop through Saturday afternoon given the presence of modest to poor mid-level lapse rates. This will likely hinder the overall severe threat across the OH Valley, even though deep-layer shear conditionally supports the potential for organized convection. Finally, occasional lightning flashes may occur with elevated convection that develops late Saturday night into early Sunday morning across parts of NE into southwestern IA and northern MO. Low-level moisture is expected to gradually return northward across the southern/central Plains through the day, and this area will be on northern fringe of this process. Strong forcing associated with a southerly low-level jet may provide sufficient lift for parcels to reach their LFC. Still, forecast MUCAPE appears too weak to support a meaningful hail threat through the end of the period (early Sunday morning). ..Gleason.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A deep, closed upper low initially off the coast of central CA should move slowly southward along/near the southern CA Coast on Saturday. Cold mid-level temperatures and strong forcing for ascent associated with an enhanced mid/upper-level jet should support weak instability, and the potential for isolated lighting flashes with any low-topped convection that can develop from parts of central into southern CA. Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across this region given the meager MUCAPE forecast. Isolated thunderstorms may occur Saturday over parts of the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley, as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves east-southeastward across these areas. A weak surface low is also forecast to develop eastward over this region in tandem with the shortwave trough. Limited low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in the low 50s, should temper how much instability can develop through Saturday afternoon given the presence of modest to poor mid-level lapse rates. This will likely hinder the overall severe threat across the OH Valley, even though deep-layer shear conditionally supports the potential for organized convection. Finally, occasional lightning flashes may occur with elevated convection that develops late Saturday night into early Sunday morning across parts of NE into southwestern IA and northern MO. Low-level moisture is expected to gradually return northward across the southern/central Plains through the day, and this area will be on northern fringe of this process. Strong forcing associated with a southerly low-level jet may provide sufficient lift for parcels to reach their LFC. Still, forecast MUCAPE appears too weak to support a meaningful hail threat through the end of the period (early Sunday morning). ..Gleason.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A deep, closed upper low initially off the coast of central CA should move slowly southward along/near the southern CA Coast on Saturday. Cold mid-level temperatures and strong forcing for ascent associated with an enhanced mid/upper-level jet should support weak instability, and the potential for isolated lighting flashes with any low-topped convection that can develop from parts of central into southern CA. Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across this region given the meager MUCAPE forecast. Isolated thunderstorms may occur Saturday over parts of the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley, as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves east-southeastward across these areas. A weak surface low is also forecast to develop eastward over this region in tandem with the shortwave trough. Limited low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in the low 50s, should temper how much instability can develop through Saturday afternoon given the presence of modest to poor mid-level lapse rates. This will likely hinder the overall severe threat across the OH Valley, even though deep-layer shear conditionally supports the potential for organized convection. Finally, occasional lightning flashes may occur with elevated convection that develops late Saturday night into early Sunday morning across parts of NE into southwestern IA and northern MO. Low-level moisture is expected to gradually return northward across the southern/central Plains through the day, and this area will be on northern fringe of this process. Strong forcing associated with a southerly low-level jet may provide sufficient lift for parcels to reach their LFC. Still, forecast MUCAPE appears too weak to support a meaningful hail threat through the end of the period (early Sunday morning). ..Gleason.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A deep, closed upper low initially off the coast of central CA should move slowly southward along/near the southern CA Coast on Saturday. Cold mid-level temperatures and strong forcing for ascent associated with an enhanced mid/upper-level jet should support weak instability, and the potential for isolated lighting flashes with any low-topped convection that can develop from parts of central into southern CA. Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across this region given the meager MUCAPE forecast. Isolated thunderstorms may occur Saturday over parts of the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley, as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves east-southeastward across these areas. A weak surface low is also forecast to develop eastward over this region in tandem with the shortwave trough. Limited low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in the low 50s, should temper how much instability can develop through Saturday afternoon given the presence of modest to poor mid-level lapse rates. This will likely hinder the overall severe threat across the OH Valley, even though deep-layer shear conditionally supports the potential for organized convection. Finally, occasional lightning flashes may occur with elevated convection that develops late Saturday night into early Sunday morning across parts of NE into southwestern IA and northern MO. Low-level moisture is expected to gradually return northward across the southern/central Plains through the day, and this area will be on northern fringe of this process. Strong forcing associated with a southerly low-level jet may provide sufficient lift for parcels to reach their LFC. Still, forecast MUCAPE appears too weak to support a meaningful hail threat through the end of the period (early Sunday morning). ..Gleason.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Surface cyclone development is expected across the southern High Plains as a mid-level trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow (Friday). Downslope flow will increase in the process, with much of the southern High Plains experiencing widespread 10-15 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Given multiple days of dry and windy conditions, fine fuels will continue to cure further, supporting at least widespread "high-end" Elevated conditions, especially over eastern New Mexico into western Texas. If fuel receptiveness increases at a greater rate than currently anticipated, Critical highlights may be needed in future outlooks. ..Squitieri.. 03/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Surface cyclone development is expected across the southern High Plains as a mid-level trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow (Friday). Downslope flow will increase in the process, with much of the southern High Plains experiencing widespread 10-15 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Given multiple days of dry and windy conditions, fine fuels will continue to cure further, supporting at least widespread "high-end" Elevated conditions, especially over eastern New Mexico into western Texas. If fuel receptiveness increases at a greater rate than currently anticipated, Critical highlights may be needed in future outlooks. ..Squitieri.. 03/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Surface cyclone development is expected across the southern High Plains as a mid-level trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow (Friday). Downslope flow will increase in the process, with much of the southern High Plains experiencing widespread 10-15 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Given multiple days of dry and windy conditions, fine fuels will continue to cure further, supporting at least widespread "high-end" Elevated conditions, especially over eastern New Mexico into western Texas. If fuel receptiveness increases at a greater rate than currently anticipated, Critical highlights may be needed in future outlooks. ..Squitieri.. 03/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Surface cyclone development is expected across the southern High Plains as a mid-level trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow (Friday). Downslope flow will increase in the process, with much of the southern High Plains experiencing widespread 10-15 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Given multiple days of dry and windy conditions, fine fuels will continue to cure further, supporting at least widespread "high-end" Elevated conditions, especially over eastern New Mexico into western Texas. If fuel receptiveness increases at a greater rate than currently anticipated, Critical highlights may be needed in future outlooks. ..Squitieri.. 03/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Surface cyclone development is expected across the southern High Plains as a mid-level trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow (Friday). Downslope flow will increase in the process, with much of the southern High Plains experiencing widespread 10-15 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Given multiple days of dry and windy conditions, fine fuels will continue to cure further, supporting at least widespread "high-end" Elevated conditions, especially over eastern New Mexico into western Texas. If fuel receptiveness increases at a greater rate than currently anticipated, Critical highlights may be needed in future outlooks. ..Squitieri.. 03/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Surface cyclone development is expected across the southern High Plains as a mid-level trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow (Friday). Downslope flow will increase in the process, with much of the southern High Plains experiencing widespread 10-15 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Given multiple days of dry and windy conditions, fine fuels will continue to cure further, supporting at least widespread "high-end" Elevated conditions, especially over eastern New Mexico into western Texas. If fuel receptiveness increases at a greater rate than currently anticipated, Critical highlights may be needed in future outlooks. ..Squitieri.. 03/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Surface lee troughing will intensify over the southern High Plains today in tandem with an increase in mid-level flow/upper-level support. Dry downslope flow is expected across the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Across eastern New Mexico into western Texas, 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH atop modestly receptive fuels will support some wildfire spread potential, necessitating the maintenance of Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Surface lee troughing will intensify over the southern High Plains today in tandem with an increase in mid-level flow/upper-level support. Dry downslope flow is expected across the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Across eastern New Mexico into western Texas, 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH atop modestly receptive fuels will support some wildfire spread potential, necessitating the maintenance of Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Surface lee troughing will intensify over the southern High Plains today in tandem with an increase in mid-level flow/upper-level support. Dry downslope flow is expected across the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Across eastern New Mexico into western Texas, 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH atop modestly receptive fuels will support some wildfire spread potential, necessitating the maintenance of Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Surface lee troughing will intensify over the southern High Plains today in tandem with an increase in mid-level flow/upper-level support. Dry downslope flow is expected across the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Across eastern New Mexico into western Texas, 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH atop modestly receptive fuels will support some wildfire spread potential, necessitating the maintenance of Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Surface lee troughing will intensify over the southern High Plains today in tandem with an increase in mid-level flow/upper-level support. Dry downslope flow is expected across the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Across eastern New Mexico into western Texas, 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH atop modestly receptive fuels will support some wildfire spread potential, necessitating the maintenance of Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Surface lee troughing will intensify over the southern High Plains today in tandem with an increase in mid-level flow/upper-level support. Dry downslope flow is expected across the southern High Plains during the afternoon. Across eastern New Mexico into western Texas, 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH atop modestly receptive fuels will support some wildfire spread potential, necessitating the maintenance of Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough/low will dig southward very near the northern and central CA Coast on Friday. Isolated lightning flashes may occur across parts of coastal central CA through the period, as cold mid-level temperatures aid in the development of weak MUCAPE and ascent associated with the upper trough/low overspreads this region. A separate area of isolated thunderstorm potential, mainly related to orographic lift, also remains apparent over portions of central Rockies. Farther east, a modified Gulf airmass will slowly advance northward from the southern Plains into parts of the mid MS Valley and Upper Midwest through Friday evening. The northern extent of this low-level moisture plume should remain rather shallow and limited, with surface dewpoints no greater than the low 50s expected. Still, a low-amplitude shortwave trough that will eject across the northern/central Plains should aid in weak cyclogenesis across the Upper Midwest, with a related weak surface low forecast to be located along/near the MO/IA border Friday evening. These features should provide sufficient lift, in tandem with a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet, to support thunderstorm development mainly Friday evening into early Saturday morning from parts of the mid MO Valley into the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. Even though deep-layer shear is forecast to become strong in this time frame, convection will probably tend to remain elevated. Generally weak MUCAPE (500-1000 J/kg) should limit the threat for severe-caliber hail, although small hail with the most robust updrafts appears possible. ..Gleason.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough/low will dig southward very near the northern and central CA Coast on Friday. Isolated lightning flashes may occur across parts of coastal central CA through the period, as cold mid-level temperatures aid in the development of weak MUCAPE and ascent associated with the upper trough/low overspreads this region. A separate area of isolated thunderstorm potential, mainly related to orographic lift, also remains apparent over portions of central Rockies. Farther east, a modified Gulf airmass will slowly advance northward from the southern Plains into parts of the mid MS Valley and Upper Midwest through Friday evening. The northern extent of this low-level moisture plume should remain rather shallow and limited, with surface dewpoints no greater than the low 50s expected. Still, a low-amplitude shortwave trough that will eject across the northern/central Plains should aid in weak cyclogenesis across the Upper Midwest, with a related weak surface low forecast to be located along/near the MO/IA border Friday evening. These features should provide sufficient lift, in tandem with a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet, to support thunderstorm development mainly Friday evening into early Saturday morning from parts of the mid MO Valley into the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. Even though deep-layer shear is forecast to become strong in this time frame, convection will probably tend to remain elevated. Generally weak MUCAPE (500-1000 J/kg) should limit the threat for severe-caliber hail, although small hail with the most robust updrafts appears possible. ..Gleason.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough/low will dig southward very near the northern and central CA Coast on Friday. Isolated lightning flashes may occur across parts of coastal central CA through the period, as cold mid-level temperatures aid in the development of weak MUCAPE and ascent associated with the upper trough/low overspreads this region. A separate area of isolated thunderstorm potential, mainly related to orographic lift, also remains apparent over portions of central Rockies. Farther east, a modified Gulf airmass will slowly advance northward from the southern Plains into parts of the mid MS Valley and Upper Midwest through Friday evening. The northern extent of this low-level moisture plume should remain rather shallow and limited, with surface dewpoints no greater than the low 50s expected. Still, a low-amplitude shortwave trough that will eject across the northern/central Plains should aid in weak cyclogenesis across the Upper Midwest, with a related weak surface low forecast to be located along/near the MO/IA border Friday evening. These features should provide sufficient lift, in tandem with a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet, to support thunderstorm development mainly Friday evening into early Saturday morning from parts of the mid MO Valley into the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. Even though deep-layer shear is forecast to become strong in this time frame, convection will probably tend to remain elevated. Generally weak MUCAPE (500-1000 J/kg) should limit the threat for severe-caliber hail, although small hail with the most robust updrafts appears possible. ..Gleason.. 03/28/2024 Read more