Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z Zonal flow aloft will quickly amplify ahead of a Pacific trough forecast to move onshore this weekend. Strong southwesterly flow will overspread the Southwest and southern high Plains, deepening a surface low over the southern Rockies. Strong surface winds are expected over much of the southern Plains along with an increasingly warm and dry air mass. As the upper-level system moves east, strong winds and lower RH will continue into early next week before a cold front moves south. Critical fire-weather concerns appear likely this weekend and early next week. ...Southern High Plains... Critical fire-weather conditions appear likely this weekend and into early next week as the main wave of the aforementioned Pacific trough moves over the southern Plains. Accompanied by a powerful 80-100 kt mid-level jet streak, strong lee cyclogenesis is expected over southeastern CO. The enhanced flow aloft and strong low-level pressure gradient will help drive 25-35 mph sustained surface winds across parts of the TX Panhandle, eastern NM and western OK. Dry downslope winds and warm temperatures behind a dryline/lee trough should also support widespread humidity values below 15%. The overlap of strong winds and several hours of hot and dry surface conditions will be favorable for widespread critical fire-weather concerns, especially D5/Sun. Fire-weather concerns will likely continue into D6/Mon as the upper trough and surface low move to the east. Confidence on the coverage and duration of critical fire-weather concerns is lower owing to uncertainty on a potential frontal passage. However, gusty winds and lower humidity still appear likely over southern portions of the TX Panhandle into southeastern NM and west TX. Through the remainder of next week, fire-weather concerns appear much lower as the cold front is forecast to move southeastward ushering in a colder air mass. ..Lyons.. 03/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z Zonal flow aloft will quickly amplify ahead of a Pacific trough forecast to move onshore this weekend. Strong southwesterly flow will overspread the Southwest and southern high Plains, deepening a surface low over the southern Rockies. Strong surface winds are expected over much of the southern Plains along with an increasingly warm and dry air mass. As the upper-level system moves east, strong winds and lower RH will continue into early next week before a cold front moves south. Critical fire-weather concerns appear likely this weekend and early next week. ...Southern High Plains... Critical fire-weather conditions appear likely this weekend and into early next week as the main wave of the aforementioned Pacific trough moves over the southern Plains. Accompanied by a powerful 80-100 kt mid-level jet streak, strong lee cyclogenesis is expected over southeastern CO. The enhanced flow aloft and strong low-level pressure gradient will help drive 25-35 mph sustained surface winds across parts of the TX Panhandle, eastern NM and western OK. Dry downslope winds and warm temperatures behind a dryline/lee trough should also support widespread humidity values below 15%. The overlap of strong winds and several hours of hot and dry surface conditions will be favorable for widespread critical fire-weather concerns, especially D5/Sun. Fire-weather concerns will likely continue into D6/Mon as the upper trough and surface low move to the east. Confidence on the coverage and duration of critical fire-weather concerns is lower owing to uncertainty on a potential frontal passage. However, gusty winds and lower humidity still appear likely over southern portions of the TX Panhandle into southeastern NM and west TX. Through the remainder of next week, fire-weather concerns appear much lower as the cold front is forecast to move southeastward ushering in a colder air mass. ..Lyons.. 03/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z Zonal flow aloft will quickly amplify ahead of a Pacific trough forecast to move onshore this weekend. Strong southwesterly flow will overspread the Southwest and southern high Plains, deepening a surface low over the southern Rockies. Strong surface winds are expected over much of the southern Plains along with an increasingly warm and dry air mass. As the upper-level system moves east, strong winds and lower RH will continue into early next week before a cold front moves south. Critical fire-weather concerns appear likely this weekend and early next week. ...Southern High Plains... Critical fire-weather conditions appear likely this weekend and into early next week as the main wave of the aforementioned Pacific trough moves over the southern Plains. Accompanied by a powerful 80-100 kt mid-level jet streak, strong lee cyclogenesis is expected over southeastern CO. The enhanced flow aloft and strong low-level pressure gradient will help drive 25-35 mph sustained surface winds across parts of the TX Panhandle, eastern NM and western OK. Dry downslope winds and warm temperatures behind a dryline/lee trough should also support widespread humidity values below 15%. The overlap of strong winds and several hours of hot and dry surface conditions will be favorable for widespread critical fire-weather concerns, especially D5/Sun. Fire-weather concerns will likely continue into D6/Mon as the upper trough and surface low move to the east. Confidence on the coverage and duration of critical fire-weather concerns is lower owing to uncertainty on a potential frontal passage. However, gusty winds and lower humidity still appear likely over southern portions of the TX Panhandle into southeastern NM and west TX. Through the remainder of next week, fire-weather concerns appear much lower as the cold front is forecast to move southeastward ushering in a colder air mass. ..Lyons.. 03/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z Zonal flow aloft will quickly amplify ahead of a Pacific trough forecast to move onshore this weekend. Strong southwesterly flow will overspread the Southwest and southern high Plains, deepening a surface low over the southern Rockies. Strong surface winds are expected over much of the southern Plains along with an increasingly warm and dry air mass. As the upper-level system moves east, strong winds and lower RH will continue into early next week before a cold front moves south. Critical fire-weather concerns appear likely this weekend and early next week. ...Southern High Plains... Critical fire-weather conditions appear likely this weekend and into early next week as the main wave of the aforementioned Pacific trough moves over the southern Plains. Accompanied by a powerful 80-100 kt mid-level jet streak, strong lee cyclogenesis is expected over southeastern CO. The enhanced flow aloft and strong low-level pressure gradient will help drive 25-35 mph sustained surface winds across parts of the TX Panhandle, eastern NM and western OK. Dry downslope winds and warm temperatures behind a dryline/lee trough should also support widespread humidity values below 15%. The overlap of strong winds and several hours of hot and dry surface conditions will be favorable for widespread critical fire-weather concerns, especially D5/Sun. Fire-weather concerns will likely continue into D6/Mon as the upper trough and surface low move to the east. Confidence on the coverage and duration of critical fire-weather concerns is lower owing to uncertainty on a potential frontal passage. However, gusty winds and lower humidity still appear likely over southern portions of the TX Panhandle into southeastern NM and west TX. Through the remainder of next week, fire-weather concerns appear much lower as the cold front is forecast to move southeastward ushering in a colder air mass. ..Lyons.. 03/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20Z Update... Some adjustments have been made to the thunder lines across the Southeast. The potential for deep convection along/ahead of the front across south FL appears to be waning, as the primary mid/upper-level shortwave trough becomes increasingly removed from the region. However, low-topped convection beneath the midlevel cold core may be capable of producing sporadic lightning flashes across southeast GA and adjacent parts of far northeast FL and southern SC into early evening. No changes have been made to the thunder areas across the West. ..Dean.. 03/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024/ Relatively dry and stable conditions are expected today over most of the CONUS, with only a few areas of thunderstorm activity. A cold front will depart the Carolinas and FL region this afternoon, with associated showers and thunderstorms moving offshore by mid-afternoon. Other scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may occur over parts of the northwestern US where cold mid-level temperatures and marginal afternoon instability will be present. No severe storms are anticipated in either region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20Z Update... Some adjustments have been made to the thunder lines across the Southeast. The potential for deep convection along/ahead of the front across south FL appears to be waning, as the primary mid/upper-level shortwave trough becomes increasingly removed from the region. However, low-topped convection beneath the midlevel cold core may be capable of producing sporadic lightning flashes across southeast GA and adjacent parts of far northeast FL and southern SC into early evening. No changes have been made to the thunder areas across the West. ..Dean.. 03/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024/ Relatively dry and stable conditions are expected today over most of the CONUS, with only a few areas of thunderstorm activity. A cold front will depart the Carolinas and FL region this afternoon, with associated showers and thunderstorms moving offshore by mid-afternoon. Other scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may occur over parts of the northwestern US where cold mid-level temperatures and marginal afternoon instability will be present. No severe storms are anticipated in either region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20Z Update... Some adjustments have been made to the thunder lines across the Southeast. The potential for deep convection along/ahead of the front across south FL appears to be waning, as the primary mid/upper-level shortwave trough becomes increasingly removed from the region. However, low-topped convection beneath the midlevel cold core may be capable of producing sporadic lightning flashes across southeast GA and adjacent parts of far northeast FL and southern SC into early evening. No changes have been made to the thunder areas across the West. ..Dean.. 03/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024/ Relatively dry and stable conditions are expected today over most of the CONUS, with only a few areas of thunderstorm activity. A cold front will depart the Carolinas and FL region this afternoon, with associated showers and thunderstorms moving offshore by mid-afternoon. Other scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may occur over parts of the northwestern US where cold mid-level temperatures and marginal afternoon instability will be present. No severe storms are anticipated in either region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20Z Update... Some adjustments have been made to the thunder lines across the Southeast. The potential for deep convection along/ahead of the front across south FL appears to be waning, as the primary mid/upper-level shortwave trough becomes increasingly removed from the region. However, low-topped convection beneath the midlevel cold core may be capable of producing sporadic lightning flashes across southeast GA and adjacent parts of far northeast FL and southern SC into early evening. No changes have been made to the thunder areas across the West. ..Dean.. 03/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024/ Relatively dry and stable conditions are expected today over most of the CONUS, with only a few areas of thunderstorm activity. A cold front will depart the Carolinas and FL region this afternoon, with associated showers and thunderstorms moving offshore by mid-afternoon. Other scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may occur over parts of the northwestern US where cold mid-level temperatures and marginal afternoon instability will be present. No severe storms are anticipated in either region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20Z Update... Some adjustments have been made to the thunder lines across the Southeast. The potential for deep convection along/ahead of the front across south FL appears to be waning, as the primary mid/upper-level shortwave trough becomes increasingly removed from the region. However, low-topped convection beneath the midlevel cold core may be capable of producing sporadic lightning flashes across southeast GA and adjacent parts of far northeast FL and southern SC into early evening. No changes have been made to the thunder areas across the West. ..Dean.. 03/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024/ Relatively dry and stable conditions are expected today over most of the CONUS, with only a few areas of thunderstorm activity. A cold front will depart the Carolinas and FL region this afternoon, with associated showers and thunderstorms moving offshore by mid-afternoon. Other scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may occur over parts of the northwestern US where cold mid-level temperatures and marginal afternoon instability will be present. No severe storms are anticipated in either region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20Z Update... Some adjustments have been made to the thunder lines across the Southeast. The potential for deep convection along/ahead of the front across south FL appears to be waning, as the primary mid/upper-level shortwave trough becomes increasingly removed from the region. However, low-topped convection beneath the midlevel cold core may be capable of producing sporadic lightning flashes across southeast GA and adjacent parts of far northeast FL and southern SC into early evening. No changes have been made to the thunder areas across the West. ..Dean.. 03/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024/ Relatively dry and stable conditions are expected today over most of the CONUS, with only a few areas of thunderstorm activity. A cold front will depart the Carolinas and FL region this afternoon, with associated showers and thunderstorms moving offshore by mid-afternoon. Other scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may occur over parts of the northwestern US where cold mid-level temperatures and marginal afternoon instability will be present. No severe storms are anticipated in either region. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20Z Update... Some adjustments have been made to the thunder lines across the Southeast. The potential for deep convection along/ahead of the front across south FL appears to be waning, as the primary mid/upper-level shortwave trough becomes increasingly removed from the region. However, low-topped convection beneath the midlevel cold core may be capable of producing sporadic lightning flashes across southeast GA and adjacent parts of far northeast FL and southern SC into early evening. No changes have been made to the thunder areas across the West. ..Dean.. 03/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024/ Relatively dry and stable conditions are expected today over most of the CONUS, with only a few areas of thunderstorm activity. A cold front will depart the Carolinas and FL region this afternoon, with associated showers and thunderstorms moving offshore by mid-afternoon. Other scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may occur over parts of the northwestern US where cold mid-level temperatures and marginal afternoon instability will be present. No severe storms are anticipated in either region. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...19z Update... Added critical area for parts of eastern NM. Confidence has increased that more widespread winds of 20-25 mph will overlap with RH below 10% for several hours Friday afternoon. While some uncertainty regarding fuel states remains, drying today and delayed green up in fine fuels west of the Caprock should support some critical fire-weather risk across parts of eastern NM and potentially the TX Panhandle. Elsewhere, southwest surface winds and low humidity should support widespread elevated fire-weather potential over much of the southern High Plains and into southern CO. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Surface cyclone development is expected across the southern High Plains as a mid-level trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow (Friday). Downslope flow will increase in the process, with much of the southern High Plains experiencing widespread 10-15 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Given multiple days of dry and windy conditions, fine fuels will continue to cure further, supporting at least widespread "high-end" Elevated conditions, especially over eastern New Mexico into western Texas. If fuel receptiveness increases at a greater rate than currently anticipated, Critical highlights may be needed in future outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...19z Update... Added critical area for parts of eastern NM. Confidence has increased that more widespread winds of 20-25 mph will overlap with RH below 10% for several hours Friday afternoon. While some uncertainty regarding fuel states remains, drying today and delayed green up in fine fuels west of the Caprock should support some critical fire-weather risk across parts of eastern NM and potentially the TX Panhandle. Elsewhere, southwest surface winds and low humidity should support widespread elevated fire-weather potential over much of the southern High Plains and into southern CO. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Surface cyclone development is expected across the southern High Plains as a mid-level trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow (Friday). Downslope flow will increase in the process, with much of the southern High Plains experiencing widespread 10-15 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Given multiple days of dry and windy conditions, fine fuels will continue to cure further, supporting at least widespread "high-end" Elevated conditions, especially over eastern New Mexico into western Texas. If fuel receptiveness increases at a greater rate than currently anticipated, Critical highlights may be needed in future outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...19z Update... Added critical area for parts of eastern NM. Confidence has increased that more widespread winds of 20-25 mph will overlap with RH below 10% for several hours Friday afternoon. While some uncertainty regarding fuel states remains, drying today and delayed green up in fine fuels west of the Caprock should support some critical fire-weather risk across parts of eastern NM and potentially the TX Panhandle. Elsewhere, southwest surface winds and low humidity should support widespread elevated fire-weather potential over much of the southern High Plains and into southern CO. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Surface cyclone development is expected across the southern High Plains as a mid-level trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow (Friday). Downslope flow will increase in the process, with much of the southern High Plains experiencing widespread 10-15 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Given multiple days of dry and windy conditions, fine fuels will continue to cure further, supporting at least widespread "high-end" Elevated conditions, especially over eastern New Mexico into western Texas. If fuel receptiveness increases at a greater rate than currently anticipated, Critical highlights may be needed in future outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...19z Update... Added critical area for parts of eastern NM. Confidence has increased that more widespread winds of 20-25 mph will overlap with RH below 10% for several hours Friday afternoon. While some uncertainty regarding fuel states remains, drying today and delayed green up in fine fuels west of the Caprock should support some critical fire-weather risk across parts of eastern NM and potentially the TX Panhandle. Elsewhere, southwest surface winds and low humidity should support widespread elevated fire-weather potential over much of the southern High Plains and into southern CO. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Surface cyclone development is expected across the southern High Plains as a mid-level trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow (Friday). Downslope flow will increase in the process, with much of the southern High Plains experiencing widespread 10-15 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Given multiple days of dry and windy conditions, fine fuels will continue to cure further, supporting at least widespread "high-end" Elevated conditions, especially over eastern New Mexico into western Texas. If fuel receptiveness increases at a greater rate than currently anticipated, Critical highlights may be needed in future outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...19z Update... Added critical area for parts of eastern NM. Confidence has increased that more widespread winds of 20-25 mph will overlap with RH below 10% for several hours Friday afternoon. While some uncertainty regarding fuel states remains, drying today and delayed green up in fine fuels west of the Caprock should support some critical fire-weather risk across parts of eastern NM and potentially the TX Panhandle. Elsewhere, southwest surface winds and low humidity should support widespread elevated fire-weather potential over much of the southern High Plains and into southern CO. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Surface cyclone development is expected across the southern High Plains as a mid-level trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow (Friday). Downslope flow will increase in the process, with much of the southern High Plains experiencing widespread 10-15 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Given multiple days of dry and windy conditions, fine fuels will continue to cure further, supporting at least widespread "high-end" Elevated conditions, especially over eastern New Mexico into western Texas. If fuel receptiveness increases at a greater rate than currently anticipated, Critical highlights may be needed in future outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...19z Update... Added critical area for parts of eastern NM. Confidence has increased that more widespread winds of 20-25 mph will overlap with RH below 10% for several hours Friday afternoon. While some uncertainty regarding fuel states remains, drying today and delayed green up in fine fuels west of the Caprock should support some critical fire-weather risk across parts of eastern NM and potentially the TX Panhandle. Elsewhere, southwest surface winds and low humidity should support widespread elevated fire-weather potential over much of the southern High Plains and into southern CO. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Surface cyclone development is expected across the southern High Plains as a mid-level trough amplifies across the Southwest tomorrow (Friday). Downslope flow will increase in the process, with much of the southern High Plains experiencing widespread 10-15 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds by afternoon peak heating. Given multiple days of dry and windy conditions, fine fuels will continue to cure further, supporting at least widespread "high-end" Elevated conditions, especially over eastern New Mexico into western Texas. If fuel receptiveness increases at a greater rate than currently anticipated, Critical highlights may be needed in future outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough over the eastern CONUS is forecast to continue moving eastward on Friday. Upstream, an upper-level trough will continue to amplify across the West, as a deep-layer cyclone moves southeastward just offshore of the central CA coast. Between the eastern and western troughs, multiple low-amplitude shortwaves will move northeastward across parts of the central/northern Plains and upper Midwest. The greatest relative thunderstorm potential is currently expected over parts of the Midwest/Mid-Upper MS Valley within a warm-advection regime, and near the central CA coast in association with the offshore cyclone. ...Parts of the Midwest/Mid-Upper MS Valley... Modest low-level moisture return (surface dewpoints in the low 50s F) is expected across parts of MO/IA into western/northern IL, as a weak surface low moves from the east-central Great Plains toward southern WI. Modest MLCAPE (increasing to near/above 500 J/kg) may develop in the warm sector of the surface low, though capping is currently expected to limit the potential for surface-based storm development. Elevated thunderstorm development will become increasingly possible with time Friday evening, within a low-level warm-advection regime. While increasing effective shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, rather weak elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE generally 500-1000 J/kg) is currently expected to limit severe-hail potential. If elevated buoyancy trends larger than currently forecast, and/or if surface-based storm development becomes more of a concern, then low-end severe probabilities may eventually be needed. ..Dean.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough over the eastern CONUS is forecast to continue moving eastward on Friday. Upstream, an upper-level trough will continue to amplify across the West, as a deep-layer cyclone moves southeastward just offshore of the central CA coast. Between the eastern and western troughs, multiple low-amplitude shortwaves will move northeastward across parts of the central/northern Plains and upper Midwest. The greatest relative thunderstorm potential is currently expected over parts of the Midwest/Mid-Upper MS Valley within a warm-advection regime, and near the central CA coast in association with the offshore cyclone. ...Parts of the Midwest/Mid-Upper MS Valley... Modest low-level moisture return (surface dewpoints in the low 50s F) is expected across parts of MO/IA into western/northern IL, as a weak surface low moves from the east-central Great Plains toward southern WI. Modest MLCAPE (increasing to near/above 500 J/kg) may develop in the warm sector of the surface low, though capping is currently expected to limit the potential for surface-based storm development. Elevated thunderstorm development will become increasingly possible with time Friday evening, within a low-level warm-advection regime. While increasing effective shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, rather weak elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE generally 500-1000 J/kg) is currently expected to limit severe-hail potential. If elevated buoyancy trends larger than currently forecast, and/or if surface-based storm development becomes more of a concern, then low-end severe probabilities may eventually be needed. ..Dean.. 03/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A deep upper-level trough over the eastern CONUS is forecast to continue moving eastward on Friday. Upstream, an upper-level trough will continue to amplify across the West, as a deep-layer cyclone moves southeastward just offshore of the central CA coast. Between the eastern and western troughs, multiple low-amplitude shortwaves will move northeastward across parts of the central/northern Plains and upper Midwest. The greatest relative thunderstorm potential is currently expected over parts of the Midwest/Mid-Upper MS Valley within a warm-advection regime, and near the central CA coast in association with the offshore cyclone. ...Parts of the Midwest/Mid-Upper MS Valley... Modest low-level moisture return (surface dewpoints in the low 50s F) is expected across parts of MO/IA into western/northern IL, as a weak surface low moves from the east-central Great Plains toward southern WI. Modest MLCAPE (increasing to near/above 500 J/kg) may develop in the warm sector of the surface low, though capping is currently expected to limit the potential for surface-based storm development. Elevated thunderstorm development will become increasingly possible with time Friday evening, within a low-level warm-advection regime. While increasing effective shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, rather weak elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE generally 500-1000 J/kg) is currently expected to limit severe-hail potential. If elevated buoyancy trends larger than currently forecast, and/or if surface-based storm development becomes more of a concern, then low-end severe probabilities may eventually be needed. ..Dean.. 03/28/2024 Read more