Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS CENTERED ON THE EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across portions of Texas centered on the Edwards Plateau. Hail and gusty winds are the primary threats. ...Texas... Weak upper low is currently centered near the NM/TX border northwest of LBB. This feature is forecast to drift southeast during the day1 period which will ensure a belt of modest 500mb northwesterly flow will stretch across much of west into south-central Texas. Low-level flow will remain weak ahead of this feature and any notable surface boundaries are not evident at this time for potential convective concentration. However, some boundary-layer heating is expected just downstream of the digging trough and this should contribute to destabilization such that robust convection is possible as surface temperatures warm through the 80s. While forecast instability is not expected to be particularly strong (MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg), ample surface-6km bulk shear should contribute to some multi cell storm organization and a few supercells. Gusty winds and hail are the primary risks during the afternoon/evening hours. ...Elsewhere... A few strong storms are expected along the Front Range of the Rockies from northeast NM into central CO. A few strong storms may also develop ahead of a short-wave trough over the upper MS Valley region where gusty winds and marginally severe hail could be noted. A few robust storms may also evolve along the coastal middle Atlantic from southeast VA into eastern NC. In each of these regions the severe threat appears too limited to warrant more than a MRGL risk for wind/hail. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 06/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS CENTERED ON THE EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across portions of Texas centered on the Edwards Plateau. Hail and gusty winds are the primary threats. ...Texas... Weak upper low is currently centered near the NM/TX border northwest of LBB. This feature is forecast to drift southeast during the day1 period which will ensure a belt of modest 500mb northwesterly flow will stretch across much of west into south-central Texas. Low-level flow will remain weak ahead of this feature and any notable surface boundaries are not evident at this time for potential convective concentration. However, some boundary-layer heating is expected just downstream of the digging trough and this should contribute to destabilization such that robust convection is possible as surface temperatures warm through the 80s. While forecast instability is not expected to be particularly strong (MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg), ample surface-6km bulk shear should contribute to some multi cell storm organization and a few supercells. Gusty winds and hail are the primary risks during the afternoon/evening hours. ...Elsewhere... A few strong storms are expected along the Front Range of the Rockies from northeast NM into central CO. A few strong storms may also develop ahead of a short-wave trough over the upper MS Valley region where gusty winds and marginally severe hail could be noted. A few robust storms may also evolve along the coastal middle Atlantic from southeast VA into eastern NC. In each of these regions the severe threat appears too limited to warrant more than a MRGL risk for wind/hail. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 06/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS CENTERED ON THE EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across portions of Texas centered on the Edwards Plateau. Hail and gusty winds are the primary threats. ...Texas... Weak upper low is currently centered near the NM/TX border northwest of LBB. This feature is forecast to drift southeast during the day1 period which will ensure a belt of modest 500mb northwesterly flow will stretch across much of west into south-central Texas. Low-level flow will remain weak ahead of this feature and any notable surface boundaries are not evident at this time for potential convective concentration. However, some boundary-layer heating is expected just downstream of the digging trough and this should contribute to destabilization such that robust convection is possible as surface temperatures warm through the 80s. While forecast instability is not expected to be particularly strong (MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg), ample surface-6km bulk shear should contribute to some multi cell storm organization and a few supercells. Gusty winds and hail are the primary risks during the afternoon/evening hours. ...Elsewhere... A few strong storms are expected along the Front Range of the Rockies from northeast NM into central CO. A few strong storms may also develop ahead of a short-wave trough over the upper MS Valley region where gusty winds and marginally severe hail could be noted. A few robust storms may also evolve along the coastal middle Atlantic from southeast VA into eastern NC. In each of these regions the severe threat appears too limited to warrant more than a MRGL risk for wind/hail. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 06/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern High Plains of TX this evening. Otherwise, only a few strong, to locally severe, storms are expected across the central plains and the Southeast. ...01z Update... Narrow corridor of strong/locally severe thunderstorms has developed ahead of a progressive short-wave trough over the High Plains. Latest radar depicts a mature squall line that extends from central SD-NE Panhandle-northeast CO. This activity will shift east this evening and gradually decrease in intensity as the linear MCS encounters less buoyant air. Farther south across the TX South Plains, an apparent weak short-wave trough is rotating around a weak upper low that is centered along the NM/TX border. Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms have evolved ahead of this feature and are propagating southeast into an air mass characterized by MLCAPE on the order of 1500 J/kg. Weak warm advection profiles and favorable inflow suggest this activity may continue to grow upscale this evening. Ultimately, a slow-moving MCS may evolve which will progress toward the Edwards Plateau. Significant convective overturning, along with a frontal passage have stabilized much of the Southeast this evening. Surface temperatures have cooled into the 70s across most of the SLGT risk and convection should generally be sub-severe the rest of this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern High Plains of TX this evening. Otherwise, only a few strong, to locally severe, storms are expected across the central plains and the Southeast. ...01z Update... Narrow corridor of strong/locally severe thunderstorms has developed ahead of a progressive short-wave trough over the High Plains. Latest radar depicts a mature squall line that extends from central SD-NE Panhandle-northeast CO. This activity will shift east this evening and gradually decrease in intensity as the linear MCS encounters less buoyant air. Farther south across the TX South Plains, an apparent weak short-wave trough is rotating around a weak upper low that is centered along the NM/TX border. Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms have evolved ahead of this feature and are propagating southeast into an air mass characterized by MLCAPE on the order of 1500 J/kg. Weak warm advection profiles and favorable inflow suggest this activity may continue to grow upscale this evening. Ultimately, a slow-moving MCS may evolve which will progress toward the Edwards Plateau. Significant convective overturning, along with a frontal passage have stabilized much of the Southeast this evening. Surface temperatures have cooled into the 70s across most of the SLGT risk and convection should generally be sub-severe the rest of this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern High Plains of TX this evening. Otherwise, only a few strong, to locally severe, storms are expected across the central plains and the Southeast. ...01z Update... Narrow corridor of strong/locally severe thunderstorms has developed ahead of a progressive short-wave trough over the High Plains. Latest radar depicts a mature squall line that extends from central SD-NE Panhandle-northeast CO. This activity will shift east this evening and gradually decrease in intensity as the linear MCS encounters less buoyant air. Farther south across the TX South Plains, an apparent weak short-wave trough is rotating around a weak upper low that is centered along the NM/TX border. Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms have evolved ahead of this feature and are propagating southeast into an air mass characterized by MLCAPE on the order of 1500 J/kg. Weak warm advection profiles and favorable inflow suggest this activity may continue to grow upscale this evening. Ultimately, a slow-moving MCS may evolve which will progress toward the Edwards Plateau. Significant convective overturning, along with a frontal passage have stabilized much of the Southeast this evening. Surface temperatures have cooled into the 70s across most of the SLGT risk and convection should generally be sub-severe the rest of this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern High Plains of TX this evening. Otherwise, only a few strong, to locally severe, storms are expected across the central plains and the Southeast. ...01z Update... Narrow corridor of strong/locally severe thunderstorms has developed ahead of a progressive short-wave trough over the High Plains. Latest radar depicts a mature squall line that extends from central SD-NE Panhandle-northeast CO. This activity will shift east this evening and gradually decrease in intensity as the linear MCS encounters less buoyant air. Farther south across the TX South Plains, an apparent weak short-wave trough is rotating around a weak upper low that is centered along the NM/TX border. Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms have evolved ahead of this feature and are propagating southeast into an air mass characterized by MLCAPE on the order of 1500 J/kg. Weak warm advection profiles and favorable inflow suggest this activity may continue to grow upscale this evening. Ultimately, a slow-moving MCS may evolve which will progress toward the Edwards Plateau. Significant convective overturning, along with a frontal passage have stabilized much of the Southeast this evening. Surface temperatures have cooled into the 70s across most of the SLGT risk and convection should generally be sub-severe the rest of this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/11/2024 Read more

WW 0403 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 403 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE SAV TO 5 ESE SAV TO 45 NNW SAV TO 20 E AGS. ..LYONS..06/11/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...CHS...CAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 403 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC103-251-110140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EFFINGHAM SCREVEN SCC005-009-011-013-015-019-029-035-049-053-075-110140- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLENDALE BAMBERG BARNWELL BEAUFORT BERKELEY CHARLESTON COLLETON DORCHESTER HAMPTON JASPER ORANGEBURG AMZ330-350-352-110140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0403 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 403 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE SAV TO 5 ESE SAV TO 45 NNW SAV TO 20 E AGS. ..LYONS..06/11/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...CHS...CAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 403 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC103-251-110140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EFFINGHAM SCREVEN SCC005-009-011-013-015-019-029-035-049-053-075-110140- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLENDALE BAMBERG BARNWELL BEAUFORT BERKELEY CHARLESTON COLLETON DORCHESTER HAMPTON JASPER ORANGEBURG AMZ330-350-352-110140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 403 SEVERE TSTM GA SC CW 101810Z - 110100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 403 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 210 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Georgia Coastal/southern South Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 210 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon while posing a threat for large hail around 1-2 inches in diameter. Any small bowing clusters that can form may also pose a threat for strong to locally severe winds of 55-70 mph. Convection should spread towards, and eventually off, the coast later this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west southwest of Vidalia GA to 15 miles southeast of Charleston SC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Gleason Read more

MD 1231 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 404... FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1231 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0532 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Areas affected...much of central South Dakota into northern Nebraska Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 404... Valid 102232Z - 110100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 404 continues. SUMMARY...A threat of severe gusts and localized hail may spread east/southeast out of WW 404 into central South Dakota and northern Nebraska. DISCUSSION...A line of storms producing locally severe gusts has consolidated across west-central SD, with an additional cluster of cells over northwest NE. Merging/colliding outflows may aid further development from south-central SD into parts of northern NE this evening. Northeastern parts of the line have weakened recently as it has interacted with cooler air. Objective analysis and surface obs show a surface theta-e gradient just east of the existing watch, and given the northeast/southwest line orientation, the primary severe risk is forecast to translate southward over time, as new development prefers the warmer boundary layer. As such, a new watch may be considered. ..Jewell.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 42040275 42210317 42500323 42830287 43780220 44670173 45400139 45600128 45600102 44980060 44390025 43429993 42720017 42230088 42030210 42040275 Read more

WW 0404 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 404 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW DGW TO 10 NW CDR TO 35 SSW PHP TO 20 W PIR. ..LYONS..06/11/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...BIS...CYS...LBF...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 404 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-007-013-031-033-045-049-069-075-091-101-105-123-157-161- 165-110140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BANNER BOX BUTTE CHERRY CHEYENNE DAWES DEUEL GARDEN GRANT HOOKER KEITH KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN SIOUX SDC007-071-110140- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT JACKSON WYC015-021-031-110140- WY Read more

WW 0404 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 404 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW DGW TO 10 NW CDR TO 35 SSW PHP TO 20 W PIR. ..LYONS..06/11/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...BIS...CYS...LBF...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 404 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-007-013-031-033-045-049-069-075-091-101-105-123-157-161- 165-110140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BANNER BOX BUTTE CHERRY CHEYENNE DAWES DEUEL GARDEN GRANT HOOKER KEITH KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN SIOUX SDC007-071-110140- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT JACKSON WYC015-021-031-110140- WY Read more

WW 404 SEVERE TSTM MT ND NE SD WY 101845Z - 110200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 404 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far Southeast Montana Far Southwest North Dakota The Nebraska Panhandle Western South Dakota Eastern Wyoming * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1245 PM until 800 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to strengthen this afternoon and early evening while posing a threat for large hail around 1-2 inches in diameter and severe/damaging wind gusts of 60-70 mph. A brief tornado may also occur with any sustained supercell, especially in western South Dakota. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 165 statute miles north and south of a line from 95 miles north northwest of Torrington WY to 55 miles east southeast of Rapid City SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 403... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Gleason Read more

MD 1231 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 404... FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1231 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0532 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Areas affected...much of central South Dakota into northern Nebraska Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 404... Valid 102232Z - 110100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 404 continues. SUMMARY...A threat of severe gusts and localized hail may spread east/southeast out of WW 404 into central South Dakota and northern Nebraska. DISCUSSION...A line of storms producing locally severe gusts has consolidated across west-central SD, with an additional cluster of cells over northwest NE. Merging/colliding outflows may aid further development from south-central SD into parts of northern NE this evening. Northeastern parts of the line have weakened recently as it has interacted with cooler air. Objective analysis and surface obs show a surface theta-e gradient just east of the existing watch, and given the northeast/southwest line orientation, the primary severe risk is forecast to translate southward over time, as new development prefers the warmer boundary layer. As such, a new watch may be considered. ..Jewell.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 42040275 42210317 42500323 42830287 43780220 44670173 45400139 45600128 45600102 44980060 44390025 43429993 42720017 42230088 42030210 42040275 Read more

MD 1230 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 403... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN GA AND SOUTHERN SC
Mesoscale Discussion 1230 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0510 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Areas affected...Portions of southeastern GA and southern SC Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 403... Valid 102210Z - 102345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 403 continues. SUMMARY...Instances of isolated large hail and locally damaging gusts remain possible across portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 403 through around 01Z. DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KJGX and KCLX depict widely scattered splitting/discrete thunderstorms with occasional supercell structures. This activity is being aided by a long/mostly straight hodograph (around 45 kt of 0-6 km shear), sampled by regional VWP. Antecedent heating/destabilization of a moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints) should support the maintenance of these storms through around 01Z -- despite the gradual onset of nocturnal stabilization. Given the aforementioned hodograph structure (and splitting storm mode), isolated large hail generally (1-1.5 inches) and locally damaging gusts (45-60 mph) are the main concerns. However, isolated hail up to 2 inches cannot be entirely ruled out with any longer-lived/organized supercell structures. ..Weinman.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 31828192 31888250 31788306 32048350 32548325 33138224 33168143 32908018 32637991 31568084 31378118 31828192 Read more

WW 0403 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 403 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE SAV TO 25 SE SAV TO 5 SSW SAV TO 30 W SAV TO 25 WSW VDI TO 40 W VDI TO 50 SSE MCN TO 35 SSE MCN. ..LYONS..06/10/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...CHS...CAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 403 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC031-033-043-091-103-107-165-167-175-209-251-279-283-309- 110040- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BULLOCH BURKE CANDLER DODGE EFFINGHAM EMANUEL JENKINS JOHNSON LAURENS MONTGOMERY SCREVEN TOOMBS TREUTLEN WHEELER SCC005-009-011-013-015-019-029-035-049-053-075-110040- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLENDALE BAMBERG BARNWELL BEAUFORT BERKELEY CHARLESTON COLLETON DORCHESTER HAMPTON JASPER ORANGEBURG Read more

WW 403 SEVERE TSTM GA SC CW 101810Z - 110100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 403 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 210 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Georgia Coastal/southern South Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 210 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon while posing a threat for large hail around 1-2 inches in diameter. Any small bowing clusters that can form may also pose a threat for strong to locally severe winds of 55-70 mph. Convection should spread towards, and eventually off, the coast later this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west southwest of Vidalia GA to 15 miles southeast of Charleston SC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Gleason Read more

MD 1229 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 404... FOR EASTERN WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1229 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Areas affected...Eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota and the Nebraska Panhandle Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 404... Valid 102053Z - 102300Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 404 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind/hail continues across the northern High Plains with more focused corridors of greater wind/hail potential noted based on recent observed trends across northwest South Dakota and southeastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle. DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, an organized squall line has emerged from a cluster of initially semi-discrete cells across northwest SD. This line has a history of producing severe wind, including a measured 66 mph gust. This line will continue to pose a severe wind risk through the eastern edge of WW 404; however, downstream into central SD, lower quality moisture/buoyancy should result in a gradual weakening trend through the late afternoon/early evening. Some indications of this weakening have already been noted as portions of the line are slowly becoming outflow dominant. Downstream watch issuance does not appear likely at this time, but convective trends will continue to be monitored to ensure the line weakens as expected as it exits WW 404. Further south, a cluster of semi-discrete cells continues to move east along the front. MRMS hail estimates suggests the more intense cells have been capable of large to very large hail (possibly up to 2 inches in diameter). The expectation over the next hour or so is for these semi-discrete cells to continue to pose a large hail risk as they migrate towards an axis of greater (2000-2500 J/kg) SBCAPE. Continued thunderstorm development along the front should favor a gradual transition to an organized line with an increasing wind threat. When this transition occurs remains somewhat unclear, but most indications suggest this may occur around or just after 22 UTC across far southwest SD and the NE Panhandle. ..Moore.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 40760474 40920503 41240519 42380502 43210460 44120464 44460436 45020372 45430340 45760320 45990299 46140255 46150178 46050135 45870106 45550092 45140090 44190105 43850114 42440150 41510236 41210283 41060330 40750437 40760474 Read more

WW 0404 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 404 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE CPR TO 55 WSW RAP TO 30 NNE RAP TO 20 SSW Y22 TO 40 ESE DIK. ..LYONS..06/10/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...BIS...CYS...LBF...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 404 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-007-013-031-033-045-049-069-075-091-101-105-123-157-161- 165-102340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BANNER BOX BUTTE CHERRY CHEYENNE DAWES DEUEL GARDEN GRANT HOOKER KEITH KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN SIOUX SDC007-033-047-055-071-093-102-103-105-137-102340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT CUSTER FALL RIVER HAAKON JACKSON MEADE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON PERKINS ZIEBACH Read more