Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of Texas centered on the Edwards Plateau into mid-evening. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. ...20Z Update... Primary severe outlook change is to add a low tornado probability to the Everglades and the greater Miami Metro Area. Within a nearly moist-adiabatic thermodynamic profile, transient low-level rotation may continue for a few more hours with slow-moving deep convection across the south FL Peninsula. Amid 0-1 km shear of 30-35 kts per the AMX VWP, a low probability for a brief tornado exists until the deeper convective elements subside/shift off the Atlantic coast. Heavy rainfall will still be the overarching hazard; see WPC MPD 422 for info on that threat. Elsewhere, minor adjustments have been made based on recent observational trends. See MCD 1232 for short-term discussion on the southeast CO/northeast NM marginal severe wind/hail threat. ..Grams.. 06/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024/ ...West Central TX... Late morning visible/radar shows an MCS over north TX. This activity is associated with a weak upper low and related low-level warm advection. An outflow boundary along the southern flank of this MCS will likely be the focus for afternoon thunderstorm development in a moist and moderately unstable airmass over central portions of TX. Model guidance indicates a small cluster of storms will eventually evolve towards the early evening. Upscale growth into a linear cluster may focus the severe-wind risk (60-70 mph) mainly this evening as this activity moves south-southeast within an environment of steep 0-3 km lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km) on the northwest rim of richer low-level moisture. ...CO/NM... Scattered high-based thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon over the Sangre de Cristos and adjacent High Plains. These storms will be in a deeply mixed air mass, capable of locally gusty winds and hail for a few hours before weakening during the evening. ...Upper MS Valley... A surface cold front will sweep eastward across the upper MS Valley this afternoon as an upper trough currently over the Dakotas approaches the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to form along/ahead of the front during the afternoon. The stronger storms may be capable of a localized hail/wind risk, but these storms will likely diminish by the early to mid evening. ...Eastern NC... A mid-level trough over the East Coast will gradually pivot east into the western Atlantic by late tonight. Weak large-scale ascent atop an adequately moist/moderately unstable, post frontal airmass may lead to a stronger storm or two developing this afternoon into the early evening. A localized risk for a strong/damaging gust cannot be ruled out before this activity weakens by sunset. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of Texas centered on the Edwards Plateau into mid-evening. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. ...20Z Update... Primary severe outlook change is to add a low tornado probability to the Everglades and the greater Miami Metro Area. Within a nearly moist-adiabatic thermodynamic profile, transient low-level rotation may continue for a few more hours with slow-moving deep convection across the south FL Peninsula. Amid 0-1 km shear of 30-35 kts per the AMX VWP, a low probability for a brief tornado exists until the deeper convective elements subside/shift off the Atlantic coast. Heavy rainfall will still be the overarching hazard; see WPC MPD 422 for info on that threat. Elsewhere, minor adjustments have been made based on recent observational trends. See MCD 1232 for short-term discussion on the southeast CO/northeast NM marginal severe wind/hail threat. ..Grams.. 06/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024/ ...West Central TX... Late morning visible/radar shows an MCS over north TX. This activity is associated with a weak upper low and related low-level warm advection. An outflow boundary along the southern flank of this MCS will likely be the focus for afternoon thunderstorm development in a moist and moderately unstable airmass over central portions of TX. Model guidance indicates a small cluster of storms will eventually evolve towards the early evening. Upscale growth into a linear cluster may focus the severe-wind risk (60-70 mph) mainly this evening as this activity moves south-southeast within an environment of steep 0-3 km lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km) on the northwest rim of richer low-level moisture. ...CO/NM... Scattered high-based thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon over the Sangre de Cristos and adjacent High Plains. These storms will be in a deeply mixed air mass, capable of locally gusty winds and hail for a few hours before weakening during the evening. ...Upper MS Valley... A surface cold front will sweep eastward across the upper MS Valley this afternoon as an upper trough currently over the Dakotas approaches the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to form along/ahead of the front during the afternoon. The stronger storms may be capable of a localized hail/wind risk, but these storms will likely diminish by the early to mid evening. ...Eastern NC... A mid-level trough over the East Coast will gradually pivot east into the western Atlantic by late tonight. Weak large-scale ascent atop an adequately moist/moderately unstable, post frontal airmass may lead to a stronger storm or two developing this afternoon into the early evening. A localized risk for a strong/damaging gust cannot be ruled out before this activity weakens by sunset. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of Texas centered on the Edwards Plateau into mid-evening. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. ...20Z Update... Primary severe outlook change is to add a low tornado probability to the Everglades and the greater Miami Metro Area. Within a nearly moist-adiabatic thermodynamic profile, transient low-level rotation may continue for a few more hours with slow-moving deep convection across the south FL Peninsula. Amid 0-1 km shear of 30-35 kts per the AMX VWP, a low probability for a brief tornado exists until the deeper convective elements subside/shift off the Atlantic coast. Heavy rainfall will still be the overarching hazard; see WPC MPD 422 for info on that threat. Elsewhere, minor adjustments have been made based on recent observational trends. See MCD 1232 for short-term discussion on the southeast CO/northeast NM marginal severe wind/hail threat. ..Grams.. 06/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024/ ...West Central TX... Late morning visible/radar shows an MCS over north TX. This activity is associated with a weak upper low and related low-level warm advection. An outflow boundary along the southern flank of this MCS will likely be the focus for afternoon thunderstorm development in a moist and moderately unstable airmass over central portions of TX. Model guidance indicates a small cluster of storms will eventually evolve towards the early evening. Upscale growth into a linear cluster may focus the severe-wind risk (60-70 mph) mainly this evening as this activity moves south-southeast within an environment of steep 0-3 km lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km) on the northwest rim of richer low-level moisture. ...CO/NM... Scattered high-based thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon over the Sangre de Cristos and adjacent High Plains. These storms will be in a deeply mixed air mass, capable of locally gusty winds and hail for a few hours before weakening during the evening. ...Upper MS Valley... A surface cold front will sweep eastward across the upper MS Valley this afternoon as an upper trough currently over the Dakotas approaches the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to form along/ahead of the front during the afternoon. The stronger storms may be capable of a localized hail/wind risk, but these storms will likely diminish by the early to mid evening. ...Eastern NC... A mid-level trough over the East Coast will gradually pivot east into the western Atlantic by late tonight. Weak large-scale ascent atop an adequately moist/moderately unstable, post frontal airmass may lead to a stronger storm or two developing this afternoon into the early evening. A localized risk for a strong/damaging gust cannot be ruled out before this activity weakens by sunset. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of Texas centered on the Edwards Plateau into mid-evening. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. ...20Z Update... Primary severe outlook change is to add a low tornado probability to the Everglades and the greater Miami Metro Area. Within a nearly moist-adiabatic thermodynamic profile, transient low-level rotation may continue for a few more hours with slow-moving deep convection across the south FL Peninsula. Amid 0-1 km shear of 30-35 kts per the AMX VWP, a low probability for a brief tornado exists until the deeper convective elements subside/shift off the Atlantic coast. Heavy rainfall will still be the overarching hazard; see WPC MPD 422 for info on that threat. Elsewhere, minor adjustments have been made based on recent observational trends. See MCD 1232 for short-term discussion on the southeast CO/northeast NM marginal severe wind/hail threat. ..Grams.. 06/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024/ ...West Central TX... Late morning visible/radar shows an MCS over north TX. This activity is associated with a weak upper low and related low-level warm advection. An outflow boundary along the southern flank of this MCS will likely be the focus for afternoon thunderstorm development in a moist and moderately unstable airmass over central portions of TX. Model guidance indicates a small cluster of storms will eventually evolve towards the early evening. Upscale growth into a linear cluster may focus the severe-wind risk (60-70 mph) mainly this evening as this activity moves south-southeast within an environment of steep 0-3 km lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km) on the northwest rim of richer low-level moisture. ...CO/NM... Scattered high-based thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon over the Sangre de Cristos and adjacent High Plains. These storms will be in a deeply mixed air mass, capable of locally gusty winds and hail for a few hours before weakening during the evening. ...Upper MS Valley... A surface cold front will sweep eastward across the upper MS Valley this afternoon as an upper trough currently over the Dakotas approaches the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to form along/ahead of the front during the afternoon. The stronger storms may be capable of a localized hail/wind risk, but these storms will likely diminish by the early to mid evening. ...Eastern NC... A mid-level trough over the East Coast will gradually pivot east into the western Atlantic by late tonight. Weak large-scale ascent atop an adequately moist/moderately unstable, post frontal airmass may lead to a stronger storm or two developing this afternoon into the early evening. A localized risk for a strong/damaging gust cannot be ruled out before this activity weakens by sunset. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains valid. Increasing south to west surface flow will develop Wednesday afternoon from the southern Great Basin near southeastern NV/western UT to northeast of the Mogollon Rim of AZ respectively. An Elevated area was considered here, but the highest wind speeds will only overlap near to just above average fuels. Still, a few hours of elevated meteorological fire weather conditions remain possible, with low teens to single-digits RH also anticipated within these regions. ..Barnes.. 06/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a slow-moving midlevel low off the southern CA coast, a belt of moderate southerly flow aloft will overspread the Desert Southwest and southern Great Basin. This will promote modestly breezy southerly surface winds across portions of northern AZ, southern NV, and southern UT -- where a deep/dry boundary layer will be in place. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible here, sustained surface winds appear too marginal for fire-weather highlights, given near-normal fuels across much of the area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains valid. Increasing south to west surface flow will develop Wednesday afternoon from the southern Great Basin near southeastern NV/western UT to northeast of the Mogollon Rim of AZ respectively. An Elevated area was considered here, but the highest wind speeds will only overlap near to just above average fuels. Still, a few hours of elevated meteorological fire weather conditions remain possible, with low teens to single-digits RH also anticipated within these regions. ..Barnes.. 06/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a slow-moving midlevel low off the southern CA coast, a belt of moderate southerly flow aloft will overspread the Desert Southwest and southern Great Basin. This will promote modestly breezy southerly surface winds across portions of northern AZ, southern NV, and southern UT -- where a deep/dry boundary layer will be in place. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible here, sustained surface winds appear too marginal for fire-weather highlights, given near-normal fuels across much of the area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains valid. Increasing south to west surface flow will develop Wednesday afternoon from the southern Great Basin near southeastern NV/western UT to northeast of the Mogollon Rim of AZ respectively. An Elevated area was considered here, but the highest wind speeds will only overlap near to just above average fuels. Still, a few hours of elevated meteorological fire weather conditions remain possible, with low teens to single-digits RH also anticipated within these regions. ..Barnes.. 06/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a slow-moving midlevel low off the southern CA coast, a belt of moderate southerly flow aloft will overspread the Desert Southwest and southern Great Basin. This will promote modestly breezy southerly surface winds across portions of northern AZ, southern NV, and southern UT -- where a deep/dry boundary layer will be in place. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible here, sustained surface winds appear too marginal for fire-weather highlights, given near-normal fuels across much of the area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains valid. Increasing south to west surface flow will develop Wednesday afternoon from the southern Great Basin near southeastern NV/western UT to northeast of the Mogollon Rim of AZ respectively. An Elevated area was considered here, but the highest wind speeds will only overlap near to just above average fuels. Still, a few hours of elevated meteorological fire weather conditions remain possible, with low teens to single-digits RH also anticipated within these regions. ..Barnes.. 06/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a slow-moving midlevel low off the southern CA coast, a belt of moderate southerly flow aloft will overspread the Desert Southwest and southern Great Basin. This will promote modestly breezy southerly surface winds across portions of northern AZ, southern NV, and southern UT -- where a deep/dry boundary layer will be in place. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible here, sustained surface winds appear too marginal for fire-weather highlights, given near-normal fuels across much of the area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains valid. Increasing south to west surface flow will develop Wednesday afternoon from the southern Great Basin near southeastern NV/western UT to northeast of the Mogollon Rim of AZ respectively. An Elevated area was considered here, but the highest wind speeds will only overlap near to just above average fuels. Still, a few hours of elevated meteorological fire weather conditions remain possible, with low teens to single-digits RH also anticipated within these regions. ..Barnes.. 06/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a slow-moving midlevel low off the southern CA coast, a belt of moderate southerly flow aloft will overspread the Desert Southwest and southern Great Basin. This will promote modestly breezy southerly surface winds across portions of northern AZ, southern NV, and southern UT -- where a deep/dry boundary layer will be in place. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible here, sustained surface winds appear too marginal for fire-weather highlights, given near-normal fuels across much of the area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains valid. Increasing south to west surface flow will develop Wednesday afternoon from the southern Great Basin near southeastern NV/western UT to northeast of the Mogollon Rim of AZ respectively. An Elevated area was considered here, but the highest wind speeds will only overlap near to just above average fuels. Still, a few hours of elevated meteorological fire weather conditions remain possible, with low teens to single-digits RH also anticipated within these regions. ..Barnes.. 06/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a slow-moving midlevel low off the southern CA coast, a belt of moderate southerly flow aloft will overspread the Desert Southwest and southern Great Basin. This will promote modestly breezy southerly surface winds across portions of northern AZ, southern NV, and southern UT -- where a deep/dry boundary layer will be in place. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible here, sustained surface winds appear too marginal for fire-weather highlights, given near-normal fuels across much of the area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains valid. Increasing south to west surface flow will develop Wednesday afternoon from the southern Great Basin near southeastern NV/western UT to northeast of the Mogollon Rim of AZ respectively. An Elevated area was considered here, but the highest wind speeds will only overlap near to just above average fuels. Still, a few hours of elevated meteorological fire weather conditions remain possible, with low teens to single-digits RH also anticipated within these regions. ..Barnes.. 06/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a slow-moving midlevel low off the southern CA coast, a belt of moderate southerly flow aloft will overspread the Desert Southwest and southern Great Basin. This will promote modestly breezy southerly surface winds across portions of northern AZ, southern NV, and southern UT -- where a deep/dry boundary layer will be in place. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible here, sustained surface winds appear too marginal for fire-weather highlights, given near-normal fuels across much of the area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains valid. Increasing south to west surface flow will develop Wednesday afternoon from the southern Great Basin near southeastern NV/western UT to northeast of the Mogollon Rim of AZ respectively. An Elevated area was considered here, but the highest wind speeds will only overlap near to just above average fuels. Still, a few hours of elevated meteorological fire weather conditions remain possible, with low teens to single-digits RH also anticipated within these regions. ..Barnes.. 06/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a slow-moving midlevel low off the southern CA coast, a belt of moderate southerly flow aloft will overspread the Desert Southwest and southern Great Basin. This will promote modestly breezy southerly surface winds across portions of northern AZ, southern NV, and southern UT -- where a deep/dry boundary layer will be in place. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible here, sustained surface winds appear too marginal for fire-weather highlights, given near-normal fuels across much of the area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains valid. Increasing south to west surface flow will develop Wednesday afternoon from the southern Great Basin near southeastern NV/western UT to northeast of the Mogollon Rim of AZ respectively. An Elevated area was considered here, but the highest wind speeds will only overlap near to just above average fuels. Still, a few hours of elevated meteorological fire weather conditions remain possible, with low teens to single-digits RH also anticipated within these regions. ..Barnes.. 06/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a slow-moving midlevel low off the southern CA coast, a belt of moderate southerly flow aloft will overspread the Desert Southwest and southern Great Basin. This will promote modestly breezy southerly surface winds across portions of northern AZ, southern NV, and southern UT -- where a deep/dry boundary layer will be in place. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible here, sustained surface winds appear too marginal for fire-weather highlights, given near-normal fuels across much of the area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes will be possible across parts of the Upper Midwest on Wednesday. The probable time frame for the most intense storms should be centered on late afternoon to early evening. ...Upper Midwest... A relatively complex convective scenario should unfold Wednesday with multiple rounds of severe potential anticipated. A mesoscale corridor of level 3-ENH risk may be warranted in later cycles, likely driven by greater hail probabilities, if spatial confidence increases. A fast largely zonal upper jet, initially along the international border over the Northwest, will spread into ND and northern MN by early Thursday. This will be coincident with a shortwave trough moving from the Canadian Rockies to the southern Prairie Provinces. A surface cyclone should track from southeast SK to along the MN/ON border by Wednesday evening. In advance of this wave, pronounced low-level warm theta-e advection will occur from the Great Plains amid an elevated mixed layer shifting east from the Dakotas and central High Plains. At least isolated elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z along the periphery of the EML, centered on eastern SD into southwest MN. Consensus of guidance suggests this activity should persist into the diurnal heating cycle, centered on southern MN with a threat for isolated severe hail. Some of this activity may transition to surface-based character by midday to early afternoon with potential for an isolated strong wind threat as well. The spatial evolution of this early-day activity will likely modulate the overall threat, especially with northeast extent into western WI, where surface-based destabilization may be limited. The primary mid to late afternoon scenario should be focused ahead of the impinging cold front/surface trough in northwest MN to eastern SD. A confined plume of moderately large buoyancy should develop by peak heating with MLCAPE reaching 2000-3000 J/kg. The southwesterly low-level wind profile coupled with gradual veering to west-northwesterly (and strengthening) upper-level winds will favor hodograph elongation. Discrete supercells may tend to be more favored across northern MN initially before clustering into the evening. A messier convective mode is anticipated with southern extent, where residual outflow from early-day storms will likely focus regenerative convection. Tornado potential should be mesoscale-focused in this regime with enhanced low-level SRH near the trailing outflow, amid a more deeply mixed boundary layer to the west/south. This scenario should include embedded supercells within a southeast-sagging cluster into the evening as low-level winds become increasingly veered over IA. With greater buoyancy/instability to the west, the western portion of an evening cluster/MCS should contain the primary large hail/severe wind threat before convection wanes overnight. ..Grams.. 06/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes will be possible across parts of the Upper Midwest on Wednesday. The probable time frame for the most intense storms should be centered on late afternoon to early evening. ...Upper Midwest... A relatively complex convective scenario should unfold Wednesday with multiple rounds of severe potential anticipated. A mesoscale corridor of level 3-ENH risk may be warranted in later cycles, likely driven by greater hail probabilities, if spatial confidence increases. A fast largely zonal upper jet, initially along the international border over the Northwest, will spread into ND and northern MN by early Thursday. This will be coincident with a shortwave trough moving from the Canadian Rockies to the southern Prairie Provinces. A surface cyclone should track from southeast SK to along the MN/ON border by Wednesday evening. In advance of this wave, pronounced low-level warm theta-e advection will occur from the Great Plains amid an elevated mixed layer shifting east from the Dakotas and central High Plains. At least isolated elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z along the periphery of the EML, centered on eastern SD into southwest MN. Consensus of guidance suggests this activity should persist into the diurnal heating cycle, centered on southern MN with a threat for isolated severe hail. Some of this activity may transition to surface-based character by midday to early afternoon with potential for an isolated strong wind threat as well. The spatial evolution of this early-day activity will likely modulate the overall threat, especially with northeast extent into western WI, where surface-based destabilization may be limited. The primary mid to late afternoon scenario should be focused ahead of the impinging cold front/surface trough in northwest MN to eastern SD. A confined plume of moderately large buoyancy should develop by peak heating with MLCAPE reaching 2000-3000 J/kg. The southwesterly low-level wind profile coupled with gradual veering to west-northwesterly (and strengthening) upper-level winds will favor hodograph elongation. Discrete supercells may tend to be more favored across northern MN initially before clustering into the evening. A messier convective mode is anticipated with southern extent, where residual outflow from early-day storms will likely focus regenerative convection. Tornado potential should be mesoscale-focused in this regime with enhanced low-level SRH near the trailing outflow, amid a more deeply mixed boundary layer to the west/south. This scenario should include embedded supercells within a southeast-sagging cluster into the evening as low-level winds become increasingly veered over IA. With greater buoyancy/instability to the west, the western portion of an evening cluster/MCS should contain the primary large hail/severe wind threat before convection wanes overnight. ..Grams.. 06/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes will be possible across parts of the Upper Midwest on Wednesday. The probable time frame for the most intense storms should be centered on late afternoon to early evening. ...Upper Midwest... A relatively complex convective scenario should unfold Wednesday with multiple rounds of severe potential anticipated. A mesoscale corridor of level 3-ENH risk may be warranted in later cycles, likely driven by greater hail probabilities, if spatial confidence increases. A fast largely zonal upper jet, initially along the international border over the Northwest, will spread into ND and northern MN by early Thursday. This will be coincident with a shortwave trough moving from the Canadian Rockies to the southern Prairie Provinces. A surface cyclone should track from southeast SK to along the MN/ON border by Wednesday evening. In advance of this wave, pronounced low-level warm theta-e advection will occur from the Great Plains amid an elevated mixed layer shifting east from the Dakotas and central High Plains. At least isolated elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z along the periphery of the EML, centered on eastern SD into southwest MN. Consensus of guidance suggests this activity should persist into the diurnal heating cycle, centered on southern MN with a threat for isolated severe hail. Some of this activity may transition to surface-based character by midday to early afternoon with potential for an isolated strong wind threat as well. The spatial evolution of this early-day activity will likely modulate the overall threat, especially with northeast extent into western WI, where surface-based destabilization may be limited. The primary mid to late afternoon scenario should be focused ahead of the impinging cold front/surface trough in northwest MN to eastern SD. A confined plume of moderately large buoyancy should develop by peak heating with MLCAPE reaching 2000-3000 J/kg. The southwesterly low-level wind profile coupled with gradual veering to west-northwesterly (and strengthening) upper-level winds will favor hodograph elongation. Discrete supercells may tend to be more favored across northern MN initially before clustering into the evening. A messier convective mode is anticipated with southern extent, where residual outflow from early-day storms will likely focus regenerative convection. Tornado potential should be mesoscale-focused in this regime with enhanced low-level SRH near the trailing outflow, amid a more deeply mixed boundary layer to the west/south. This scenario should include embedded supercells within a southeast-sagging cluster into the evening as low-level winds become increasingly veered over IA. With greater buoyancy/instability to the west, the western portion of an evening cluster/MCS should contain the primary large hail/severe wind threat before convection wanes overnight. ..Grams.. 06/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes will be possible across parts of the Upper Midwest on Wednesday. The probable time frame for the most intense storms should be centered on late afternoon to early evening. ...Upper Midwest... A relatively complex convective scenario should unfold Wednesday with multiple rounds of severe potential anticipated. A mesoscale corridor of level 3-ENH risk may be warranted in later cycles, likely driven by greater hail probabilities, if spatial confidence increases. A fast largely zonal upper jet, initially along the international border over the Northwest, will spread into ND and northern MN by early Thursday. This will be coincident with a shortwave trough moving from the Canadian Rockies to the southern Prairie Provinces. A surface cyclone should track from southeast SK to along the MN/ON border by Wednesday evening. In advance of this wave, pronounced low-level warm theta-e advection will occur from the Great Plains amid an elevated mixed layer shifting east from the Dakotas and central High Plains. At least isolated elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z along the periphery of the EML, centered on eastern SD into southwest MN. Consensus of guidance suggests this activity should persist into the diurnal heating cycle, centered on southern MN with a threat for isolated severe hail. Some of this activity may transition to surface-based character by midday to early afternoon with potential for an isolated strong wind threat as well. The spatial evolution of this early-day activity will likely modulate the overall threat, especially with northeast extent into western WI, where surface-based destabilization may be limited. The primary mid to late afternoon scenario should be focused ahead of the impinging cold front/surface trough in northwest MN to eastern SD. A confined plume of moderately large buoyancy should develop by peak heating with MLCAPE reaching 2000-3000 J/kg. The southwesterly low-level wind profile coupled with gradual veering to west-northwesterly (and strengthening) upper-level winds will favor hodograph elongation. Discrete supercells may tend to be more favored across northern MN initially before clustering into the evening. A messier convective mode is anticipated with southern extent, where residual outflow from early-day storms will likely focus regenerative convection. Tornado potential should be mesoscale-focused in this regime with enhanced low-level SRH near the trailing outflow, amid a more deeply mixed boundary layer to the west/south. This scenario should include embedded supercells within a southeast-sagging cluster into the evening as low-level winds become increasingly veered over IA. With greater buoyancy/instability to the west, the western portion of an evening cluster/MCS should contain the primary large hail/severe wind threat before convection wanes overnight. ..Grams.. 06/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes will be possible across parts of the Upper Midwest on Wednesday. The probable time frame for the most intense storms should be centered on late afternoon to early evening. ...Upper Midwest... A relatively complex convective scenario should unfold Wednesday with multiple rounds of severe potential anticipated. A mesoscale corridor of level 3-ENH risk may be warranted in later cycles, likely driven by greater hail probabilities, if spatial confidence increases. A fast largely zonal upper jet, initially along the international border over the Northwest, will spread into ND and northern MN by early Thursday. This will be coincident with a shortwave trough moving from the Canadian Rockies to the southern Prairie Provinces. A surface cyclone should track from southeast SK to along the MN/ON border by Wednesday evening. In advance of this wave, pronounced low-level warm theta-e advection will occur from the Great Plains amid an elevated mixed layer shifting east from the Dakotas and central High Plains. At least isolated elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z along the periphery of the EML, centered on eastern SD into southwest MN. Consensus of guidance suggests this activity should persist into the diurnal heating cycle, centered on southern MN with a threat for isolated severe hail. Some of this activity may transition to surface-based character by midday to early afternoon with potential for an isolated strong wind threat as well. The spatial evolution of this early-day activity will likely modulate the overall threat, especially with northeast extent into western WI, where surface-based destabilization may be limited. The primary mid to late afternoon scenario should be focused ahead of the impinging cold front/surface trough in northwest MN to eastern SD. A confined plume of moderately large buoyancy should develop by peak heating with MLCAPE reaching 2000-3000 J/kg. The southwesterly low-level wind profile coupled with gradual veering to west-northwesterly (and strengthening) upper-level winds will favor hodograph elongation. Discrete supercells may tend to be more favored across northern MN initially before clustering into the evening. A messier convective mode is anticipated with southern extent, where residual outflow from early-day storms will likely focus regenerative convection. Tornado potential should be mesoscale-focused in this regime with enhanced low-level SRH near the trailing outflow, amid a more deeply mixed boundary layer to the west/south. This scenario should include embedded supercells within a southeast-sagging cluster into the evening as low-level winds become increasingly veered over IA. With greater buoyancy/instability to the west, the western portion of an evening cluster/MCS should contain the primary large hail/severe wind threat before convection wanes overnight. ..Grams.. 06/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes will be possible across parts of the Upper Midwest on Wednesday. The probable time frame for the most intense storms should be centered on late afternoon to early evening. ...Upper Midwest... A relatively complex convective scenario should unfold Wednesday with multiple rounds of severe potential anticipated. A mesoscale corridor of level 3-ENH risk may be warranted in later cycles, likely driven by greater hail probabilities, if spatial confidence increases. A fast largely zonal upper jet, initially along the international border over the Northwest, will spread into ND and northern MN by early Thursday. This will be coincident with a shortwave trough moving from the Canadian Rockies to the southern Prairie Provinces. A surface cyclone should track from southeast SK to along the MN/ON border by Wednesday evening. In advance of this wave, pronounced low-level warm theta-e advection will occur from the Great Plains amid an elevated mixed layer shifting east from the Dakotas and central High Plains. At least isolated elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z along the periphery of the EML, centered on eastern SD into southwest MN. Consensus of guidance suggests this activity should persist into the diurnal heating cycle, centered on southern MN with a threat for isolated severe hail. Some of this activity may transition to surface-based character by midday to early afternoon with potential for an isolated strong wind threat as well. The spatial evolution of this early-day activity will likely modulate the overall threat, especially with northeast extent into western WI, where surface-based destabilization may be limited. The primary mid to late afternoon scenario should be focused ahead of the impinging cold front/surface trough in northwest MN to eastern SD. A confined plume of moderately large buoyancy should develop by peak heating with MLCAPE reaching 2000-3000 J/kg. The southwesterly low-level wind profile coupled with gradual veering to west-northwesterly (and strengthening) upper-level winds will favor hodograph elongation. Discrete supercells may tend to be more favored across northern MN initially before clustering into the evening. A messier convective mode is anticipated with southern extent, where residual outflow from early-day storms will likely focus regenerative convection. Tornado potential should be mesoscale-focused in this regime with enhanced low-level SRH near the trailing outflow, amid a more deeply mixed boundary layer to the west/south. This scenario should include embedded supercells within a southeast-sagging cluster into the evening as low-level winds become increasingly veered over IA. With greater buoyancy/instability to the west, the western portion of an evening cluster/MCS should contain the primary large hail/severe wind threat before convection wanes overnight. ..Grams.. 06/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes will be possible across parts of the Upper Midwest on Wednesday. The probable time frame for the most intense storms should be centered on late afternoon to early evening. ...Upper Midwest... A relatively complex convective scenario should unfold Wednesday with multiple rounds of severe potential anticipated. A mesoscale corridor of level 3-ENH risk may be warranted in later cycles, likely driven by greater hail probabilities, if spatial confidence increases. A fast largely zonal upper jet, initially along the international border over the Northwest, will spread into ND and northern MN by early Thursday. This will be coincident with a shortwave trough moving from the Canadian Rockies to the southern Prairie Provinces. A surface cyclone should track from southeast SK to along the MN/ON border by Wednesday evening. In advance of this wave, pronounced low-level warm theta-e advection will occur from the Great Plains amid an elevated mixed layer shifting east from the Dakotas and central High Plains. At least isolated elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z along the periphery of the EML, centered on eastern SD into southwest MN. Consensus of guidance suggests this activity should persist into the diurnal heating cycle, centered on southern MN with a threat for isolated severe hail. Some of this activity may transition to surface-based character by midday to early afternoon with potential for an isolated strong wind threat as well. The spatial evolution of this early-day activity will likely modulate the overall threat, especially with northeast extent into western WI, where surface-based destabilization may be limited. The primary mid to late afternoon scenario should be focused ahead of the impinging cold front/surface trough in northwest MN to eastern SD. A confined plume of moderately large buoyancy should develop by peak heating with MLCAPE reaching 2000-3000 J/kg. The southwesterly low-level wind profile coupled with gradual veering to west-northwesterly (and strengthening) upper-level winds will favor hodograph elongation. Discrete supercells may tend to be more favored across northern MN initially before clustering into the evening. A messier convective mode is anticipated with southern extent, where residual outflow from early-day storms will likely focus regenerative convection. Tornado potential should be mesoscale-focused in this regime with enhanced low-level SRH near the trailing outflow, amid a more deeply mixed boundary layer to the west/south. This scenario should include embedded supercells within a southeast-sagging cluster into the evening as low-level winds become increasingly veered over IA. With greater buoyancy/instability to the west, the western portion of an evening cluster/MCS should contain the primary large hail/severe wind threat before convection wanes overnight. ..Grams.. 06/11/2024 Read more