Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Ahead of a slow-moving midlevel low off the southern CA coast, a belt of moderate southerly flow aloft will overspread the Desert Southwest and southern Great Basin. This will promote modestly breezy southerly surface winds across portions of northern AZ, southern NV, and southern UT -- where a deep/dry boundary layer will be in place. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible here, sustained surface winds appear too marginal for fire-weather highlights, given near-normal fuels across much of the area. ..Weinman.. 06/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A belt of strong westerly midlevel flow will overspread the Pacific Northwest, while a related cold front moves eastward across the region. This will favor downslope warming/drying and a tightening surface pressure gradient east of the Cascades. As a result, locally dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of eastern WA and OR, and locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, marginal fuels limit confidence in an appreciable fire-weather threat -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time. Over the Southwest, warm/dry conditions will continue beneath a midlevel ridge. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible (given dry fuels across the region), a modest surface pressure gradient and fairly weak surface winds should limit the overall fire-weather threat. ..Weinman.. 06/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A belt of strong westerly midlevel flow will overspread the Pacific Northwest, while a related cold front moves eastward across the region. This will favor downslope warming/drying and a tightening surface pressure gradient east of the Cascades. As a result, locally dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of eastern WA and OR, and locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, marginal fuels limit confidence in an appreciable fire-weather threat -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time. Over the Southwest, warm/dry conditions will continue beneath a midlevel ridge. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible (given dry fuels across the region), a modest surface pressure gradient and fairly weak surface winds should limit the overall fire-weather threat. ..Weinman.. 06/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A belt of strong westerly midlevel flow will overspread the Pacific Northwest, while a related cold front moves eastward across the region. This will favor downslope warming/drying and a tightening surface pressure gradient east of the Cascades. As a result, locally dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of eastern WA and OR, and locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, marginal fuels limit confidence in an appreciable fire-weather threat -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time. Over the Southwest, warm/dry conditions will continue beneath a midlevel ridge. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible (given dry fuels across the region), a modest surface pressure gradient and fairly weak surface winds should limit the overall fire-weather threat. ..Weinman.. 06/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A belt of strong westerly midlevel flow will overspread the Pacific Northwest, while a related cold front moves eastward across the region. This will favor downslope warming/drying and a tightening surface pressure gradient east of the Cascades. As a result, locally dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of eastern WA and OR, and locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, marginal fuels limit confidence in an appreciable fire-weather threat -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time. Over the Southwest, warm/dry conditions will continue beneath a midlevel ridge. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible (given dry fuels across the region), a modest surface pressure gradient and fairly weak surface winds should limit the overall fire-weather threat. ..Weinman.. 06/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A belt of strong westerly midlevel flow will overspread the Pacific Northwest, while a related cold front moves eastward across the region. This will favor downslope warming/drying and a tightening surface pressure gradient east of the Cascades. As a result, locally dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of eastern WA and OR, and locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, marginal fuels limit confidence in an appreciable fire-weather threat -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time. Over the Southwest, warm/dry conditions will continue beneath a midlevel ridge. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible (given dry fuels across the region), a modest surface pressure gradient and fairly weak surface winds should limit the overall fire-weather threat. ..Weinman.. 06/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with large hail and severe wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two are expected on Wednesday in parts of the Upper Midwest. ...Upper Midwest... A belt of strong mid-level flow will be in place on Wednesday across the far northern U.S. Within the flow, a 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet is forecast to move eastward across far southern Saskatchewan. The exit region of this feature will overspread the upper Mississippi Valley during the day, strengthening large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward through the eastern Dakotas. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will likely reach the lower to mid 60s F from the mid Missouri Valley northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. During the afternoon, surface-based thunderstorms are expected to form along the western edge of the moist airmass, from eastern South Dakota into western Minnesota. These storms are expected to gradually increase in coverage, moving eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley during the late afternoon and early evening. NAM forecast soundings near the instability axis at 00Z/Thursday from central Minnesota into far northwest Iowa have MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear around 45 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This environment will favorable for severe storms. The stronger cells could become supercellular and have a large hail threat. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with supercells that form in areas that destabilize the most. Some model solutions suggest that cells could be separated enough to favor discrete modes. By early evening, forecast soundings increase 0-3 km storm-relative into the 200 to 250 m2/s2 range. These factors would support an isolated tornado threat with the more intense supercells. A wind-damage threat will also be possible with supercells, and with organized short line segments. The severe threat should continue into the mid to late evening as storms move eastward into the far western Great Lakes region. ..Broyles.. 06/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with large hail and severe wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two are expected on Wednesday in parts of the Upper Midwest. ...Upper Midwest... A belt of strong mid-level flow will be in place on Wednesday across the far northern U.S. Within the flow, a 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet is forecast to move eastward across far southern Saskatchewan. The exit region of this feature will overspread the upper Mississippi Valley during the day, strengthening large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward through the eastern Dakotas. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will likely reach the lower to mid 60s F from the mid Missouri Valley northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. During the afternoon, surface-based thunderstorms are expected to form along the western edge of the moist airmass, from eastern South Dakota into western Minnesota. These storms are expected to gradually increase in coverage, moving eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley during the late afternoon and early evening. NAM forecast soundings near the instability axis at 00Z/Thursday from central Minnesota into far northwest Iowa have MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear around 45 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This environment will favorable for severe storms. The stronger cells could become supercellular and have a large hail threat. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with supercells that form in areas that destabilize the most. Some model solutions suggest that cells could be separated enough to favor discrete modes. By early evening, forecast soundings increase 0-3 km storm-relative into the 200 to 250 m2/s2 range. These factors would support an isolated tornado threat with the more intense supercells. A wind-damage threat will also be possible with supercells, and with organized short line segments. The severe threat should continue into the mid to late evening as storms move eastward into the far western Great Lakes region. ..Broyles.. 06/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with large hail and severe wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two are expected on Wednesday in parts of the Upper Midwest. ...Upper Midwest... A belt of strong mid-level flow will be in place on Wednesday across the far northern U.S. Within the flow, a 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet is forecast to move eastward across far southern Saskatchewan. The exit region of this feature will overspread the upper Mississippi Valley during the day, strengthening large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward through the eastern Dakotas. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will likely reach the lower to mid 60s F from the mid Missouri Valley northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. During the afternoon, surface-based thunderstorms are expected to form along the western edge of the moist airmass, from eastern South Dakota into western Minnesota. These storms are expected to gradually increase in coverage, moving eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley during the late afternoon and early evening. NAM forecast soundings near the instability axis at 00Z/Thursday from central Minnesota into far northwest Iowa have MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear around 45 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This environment will favorable for severe storms. The stronger cells could become supercellular and have a large hail threat. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with supercells that form in areas that destabilize the most. Some model solutions suggest that cells could be separated enough to favor discrete modes. By early evening, forecast soundings increase 0-3 km storm-relative into the 200 to 250 m2/s2 range. These factors would support an isolated tornado threat with the more intense supercells. A wind-damage threat will also be possible with supercells, and with organized short line segments. The severe threat should continue into the mid to late evening as storms move eastward into the far western Great Lakes region. ..Broyles.. 06/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with large hail and severe wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two are expected on Wednesday in parts of the Upper Midwest. ...Upper Midwest... A belt of strong mid-level flow will be in place on Wednesday across the far northern U.S. Within the flow, a 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet is forecast to move eastward across far southern Saskatchewan. The exit region of this feature will overspread the upper Mississippi Valley during the day, strengthening large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward through the eastern Dakotas. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will likely reach the lower to mid 60s F from the mid Missouri Valley northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. During the afternoon, surface-based thunderstorms are expected to form along the western edge of the moist airmass, from eastern South Dakota into western Minnesota. These storms are expected to gradually increase in coverage, moving eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley during the late afternoon and early evening. NAM forecast soundings near the instability axis at 00Z/Thursday from central Minnesota into far northwest Iowa have MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear around 45 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This environment will favorable for severe storms. The stronger cells could become supercellular and have a large hail threat. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with supercells that form in areas that destabilize the most. Some model solutions suggest that cells could be separated enough to favor discrete modes. By early evening, forecast soundings increase 0-3 km storm-relative into the 200 to 250 m2/s2 range. These factors would support an isolated tornado threat with the more intense supercells. A wind-damage threat will also be possible with supercells, and with organized short line segments. The severe threat should continue into the mid to late evening as storms move eastward into the far western Great Lakes region. ..Broyles.. 06/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with large hail and severe wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two are expected on Wednesday in parts of the Upper Midwest. ...Upper Midwest... A belt of strong mid-level flow will be in place on Wednesday across the far northern U.S. Within the flow, a 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet is forecast to move eastward across far southern Saskatchewan. The exit region of this feature will overspread the upper Mississippi Valley during the day, strengthening large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward through the eastern Dakotas. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will likely reach the lower to mid 60s F from the mid Missouri Valley northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. During the afternoon, surface-based thunderstorms are expected to form along the western edge of the moist airmass, from eastern South Dakota into western Minnesota. These storms are expected to gradually increase in coverage, moving eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley during the late afternoon and early evening. NAM forecast soundings near the instability axis at 00Z/Thursday from central Minnesota into far northwest Iowa have MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear around 45 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This environment will favorable for severe storms. The stronger cells could become supercellular and have a large hail threat. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with supercells that form in areas that destabilize the most. Some model solutions suggest that cells could be separated enough to favor discrete modes. By early evening, forecast soundings increase 0-3 km storm-relative into the 200 to 250 m2/s2 range. These factors would support an isolated tornado threat with the more intense supercells. A wind-damage threat will also be possible with supercells, and with organized short line segments. The severe threat should continue into the mid to late evening as storms move eastward into the far western Great Lakes region. ..Broyles.. 06/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS CENTERED ON THE EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across portions of Texas centered on the Edwards Plateau. Hail and gusty winds are the primary threats. ...Texas... Weak upper low is currently centered near the NM/TX border northwest of LBB. This feature is forecast to drift southeast during the day1 period which will ensure a belt of modest 500mb northwesterly flow will stretch across much of west into south-central Texas. Low-level flow will remain weak ahead of this feature and any notable surface boundaries are not evident at this time for potential convective concentration. However, some boundary-layer heating is expected just downstream of the digging trough and this should contribute to destabilization such that robust convection is possible as surface temperatures warm through the 80s. While forecast instability is not expected to be particularly strong (MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg), ample surface-6km bulk shear should contribute to some multi cell storm organization and a few supercells. Gusty winds and hail are the primary risks during the afternoon/evening hours. ...Elsewhere... A few strong storms are expected along the Front Range of the Rockies from northeast NM into central CO. A few strong storms may also develop ahead of a short-wave trough over the upper MS Valley region where gusty winds and marginally severe hail could be noted. A few robust storms may also evolve along the coastal middle Atlantic from southeast VA into eastern NC. In each of these regions the severe threat appears too limited to warrant more than a MRGL risk for wind/hail. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 06/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS CENTERED ON THE EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across portions of Texas centered on the Edwards Plateau. Hail and gusty winds are the primary threats. ...Texas... Weak upper low is currently centered near the NM/TX border northwest of LBB. This feature is forecast to drift southeast during the day1 period which will ensure a belt of modest 500mb northwesterly flow will stretch across much of west into south-central Texas. Low-level flow will remain weak ahead of this feature and any notable surface boundaries are not evident at this time for potential convective concentration. However, some boundary-layer heating is expected just downstream of the digging trough and this should contribute to destabilization such that robust convection is possible as surface temperatures warm through the 80s. While forecast instability is not expected to be particularly strong (MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg), ample surface-6km bulk shear should contribute to some multi cell storm organization and a few supercells. Gusty winds and hail are the primary risks during the afternoon/evening hours. ...Elsewhere... A few strong storms are expected along the Front Range of the Rockies from northeast NM into central CO. A few strong storms may also develop ahead of a short-wave trough over the upper MS Valley region where gusty winds and marginally severe hail could be noted. A few robust storms may also evolve along the coastal middle Atlantic from southeast VA into eastern NC. In each of these regions the severe threat appears too limited to warrant more than a MRGL risk for wind/hail. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 06/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS CENTERED ON THE EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across portions of Texas centered on the Edwards Plateau. Hail and gusty winds are the primary threats. ...Texas... Weak upper low is currently centered near the NM/TX border northwest of LBB. This feature is forecast to drift southeast during the day1 period which will ensure a belt of modest 500mb northwesterly flow will stretch across much of west into south-central Texas. Low-level flow will remain weak ahead of this feature and any notable surface boundaries are not evident at this time for potential convective concentration. However, some boundary-layer heating is expected just downstream of the digging trough and this should contribute to destabilization such that robust convection is possible as surface temperatures warm through the 80s. While forecast instability is not expected to be particularly strong (MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg), ample surface-6km bulk shear should contribute to some multi cell storm organization and a few supercells. Gusty winds and hail are the primary risks during the afternoon/evening hours. ...Elsewhere... A few strong storms are expected along the Front Range of the Rockies from northeast NM into central CO. A few strong storms may also develop ahead of a short-wave trough over the upper MS Valley region where gusty winds and marginally severe hail could be noted. A few robust storms may also evolve along the coastal middle Atlantic from southeast VA into eastern NC. In each of these regions the severe threat appears too limited to warrant more than a MRGL risk for wind/hail. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 06/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS CENTERED ON THE EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across portions of Texas centered on the Edwards Plateau. Hail and gusty winds are the primary threats. ...Texas... Weak upper low is currently centered near the NM/TX border northwest of LBB. This feature is forecast to drift southeast during the day1 period which will ensure a belt of modest 500mb northwesterly flow will stretch across much of west into south-central Texas. Low-level flow will remain weak ahead of this feature and any notable surface boundaries are not evident at this time for potential convective concentration. However, some boundary-layer heating is expected just downstream of the digging trough and this should contribute to destabilization such that robust convection is possible as surface temperatures warm through the 80s. While forecast instability is not expected to be particularly strong (MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg), ample surface-6km bulk shear should contribute to some multi cell storm organization and a few supercells. Gusty winds and hail are the primary risks during the afternoon/evening hours. ...Elsewhere... A few strong storms are expected along the Front Range of the Rockies from northeast NM into central CO. A few strong storms may also develop ahead of a short-wave trough over the upper MS Valley region where gusty winds and marginally severe hail could be noted. A few robust storms may also evolve along the coastal middle Atlantic from southeast VA into eastern NC. In each of these regions the severe threat appears too limited to warrant more than a MRGL risk for wind/hail. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 06/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS CENTERED ON THE EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across portions of Texas centered on the Edwards Plateau. Hail and gusty winds are the primary threats. ...Texas... Weak upper low is currently centered near the NM/TX border northwest of LBB. This feature is forecast to drift southeast during the day1 period which will ensure a belt of modest 500mb northwesterly flow will stretch across much of west into south-central Texas. Low-level flow will remain weak ahead of this feature and any notable surface boundaries are not evident at this time for potential convective concentration. However, some boundary-layer heating is expected just downstream of the digging trough and this should contribute to destabilization such that robust convection is possible as surface temperatures warm through the 80s. While forecast instability is not expected to be particularly strong (MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg), ample surface-6km bulk shear should contribute to some multi cell storm organization and a few supercells. Gusty winds and hail are the primary risks during the afternoon/evening hours. ...Elsewhere... A few strong storms are expected along the Front Range of the Rockies from northeast NM into central CO. A few strong storms may also develop ahead of a short-wave trough over the upper MS Valley region where gusty winds and marginally severe hail could be noted. A few robust storms may also evolve along the coastal middle Atlantic from southeast VA into eastern NC. In each of these regions the severe threat appears too limited to warrant more than a MRGL risk for wind/hail. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 06/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS CENTERED ON THE EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across portions of Texas centered on the Edwards Plateau. Hail and gusty winds are the primary threats. ...Texas... Weak upper low is currently centered near the NM/TX border northwest of LBB. This feature is forecast to drift southeast during the day1 period which will ensure a belt of modest 500mb northwesterly flow will stretch across much of west into south-central Texas. Low-level flow will remain weak ahead of this feature and any notable surface boundaries are not evident at this time for potential convective concentration. However, some boundary-layer heating is expected just downstream of the digging trough and this should contribute to destabilization such that robust convection is possible as surface temperatures warm through the 80s. While forecast instability is not expected to be particularly strong (MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg), ample surface-6km bulk shear should contribute to some multi cell storm organization and a few supercells. Gusty winds and hail are the primary risks during the afternoon/evening hours. ...Elsewhere... A few strong storms are expected along the Front Range of the Rockies from northeast NM into central CO. A few strong storms may also develop ahead of a short-wave trough over the upper MS Valley region where gusty winds and marginally severe hail could be noted. A few robust storms may also evolve along the coastal middle Atlantic from southeast VA into eastern NC. In each of these regions the severe threat appears too limited to warrant more than a MRGL risk for wind/hail. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 06/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern High Plains of TX this evening. Otherwise, only a few strong, to locally severe, storms are expected across the central plains and the Southeast. ...01z Update... Narrow corridor of strong/locally severe thunderstorms has developed ahead of a progressive short-wave trough over the High Plains. Latest radar depicts a mature squall line that extends from central SD-NE Panhandle-northeast CO. This activity will shift east this evening and gradually decrease in intensity as the linear MCS encounters less buoyant air. Farther south across the TX South Plains, an apparent weak short-wave trough is rotating around a weak upper low that is centered along the NM/TX border. Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms have evolved ahead of this feature and are propagating southeast into an air mass characterized by MLCAPE on the order of 1500 J/kg. Weak warm advection profiles and favorable inflow suggest this activity may continue to grow upscale this evening. Ultimately, a slow-moving MCS may evolve which will progress toward the Edwards Plateau. Significant convective overturning, along with a frontal passage have stabilized much of the Southeast this evening. Surface temperatures have cooled into the 70s across most of the SLGT risk and convection should generally be sub-severe the rest of this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern High Plains of TX this evening. Otherwise, only a few strong, to locally severe, storms are expected across the central plains and the Southeast. ...01z Update... Narrow corridor of strong/locally severe thunderstorms has developed ahead of a progressive short-wave trough over the High Plains. Latest radar depicts a mature squall line that extends from central SD-NE Panhandle-northeast CO. This activity will shift east this evening and gradually decrease in intensity as the linear MCS encounters less buoyant air. Farther south across the TX South Plains, an apparent weak short-wave trough is rotating around a weak upper low that is centered along the NM/TX border. Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms have evolved ahead of this feature and are propagating southeast into an air mass characterized by MLCAPE on the order of 1500 J/kg. Weak warm advection profiles and favorable inflow suggest this activity may continue to grow upscale this evening. Ultimately, a slow-moving MCS may evolve which will progress toward the Edwards Plateau. Significant convective overturning, along with a frontal passage have stabilized much of the Southeast this evening. Surface temperatures have cooled into the 70s across most of the SLGT risk and convection should generally be sub-severe the rest of this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern High Plains of TX this evening. Otherwise, only a few strong, to locally severe, storms are expected across the central plains and the Southeast. ...01z Update... Narrow corridor of strong/locally severe thunderstorms has developed ahead of a progressive short-wave trough over the High Plains. Latest radar depicts a mature squall line that extends from central SD-NE Panhandle-northeast CO. This activity will shift east this evening and gradually decrease in intensity as the linear MCS encounters less buoyant air. Farther south across the TX South Plains, an apparent weak short-wave trough is rotating around a weak upper low that is centered along the NM/TX border. Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms have evolved ahead of this feature and are propagating southeast into an air mass characterized by MLCAPE on the order of 1500 J/kg. Weak warm advection profiles and favorable inflow suggest this activity may continue to grow upscale this evening. Ultimately, a slow-moving MCS may evolve which will progress toward the Edwards Plateau. Significant convective overturning, along with a frontal passage have stabilized much of the Southeast this evening. Surface temperatures have cooled into the 70s across most of the SLGT risk and convection should generally be sub-severe the rest of this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/11/2024 Read more