Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHEAST GA/COASTAL SC...AND WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts should continue across parts of the northern/central High Plains into early evening. Other strong to severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds will remain possible across portions of the Southeast States and west Texas through this evening. ...20Z Update... Prior forecast reasoning remains largely on-track across the CONUS. Primary categorical change has been to sever parts of the southern High Plains level 1-MRGL risk area to the north/west of the mid-level impulse drifting east-southeast. Here, abundant cloudiness/rain has limited afternoon destabilization. In conjunction with weak deep-layer shear, the potential for an organized severe storm appears negligible. Please see MCD 1228 for in-depth discussion on the severe potential ahead of this impulse in the Permian Basin and TX South Plains. Minor adjustments have also been made across the northern/central High Plains area based on latest convective and observational trends. No changes have been made to the severe threat area in the Southeast States. ..Grams.. 06/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024/ ...Northern/Central High Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough noted on water vapor satellite imagery over the northern Rockies will continue to advance eastward today over the northern High Plains. A related weak surface low over eastern MT should consolidate and shift into Saskatchewan through early afternoon, while a separate surface low develops over the central High Plains. A cold front is progged to move eastward through the afternoon and early evening over the northern High Plains. Low-level moisture will remain fairly limited ahead of the front, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s. But, steep mid-level lapse rates and daytime heating will aid in the development of weak to locally moderate instability in a narrow corridor by mid afternoon. Although mid-level flow is not expected to be overly strong, sufficient veering/strengthening of the flow with height through mid levels will still support generally 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to develop along or just ahead of the front in the 18-20Z time frame. Initial supercells should pose a threat for mainly severe hail, but quick upscale growth into one or more small clusters will probably lead to a greater severe/damaging wind risk as convection moves quickly eastward. A tornado or two also appears possible. The relatively narrow warm sector suggests that thunderstorm intensity should decrease through the early evening with eastward extent across the northern/central High Plains. ...Southeast... Latest surface observations show a weak cold front situated across southern AL/GA into coastal SC. The presence of a moist low-level airmass and robust daytime heating along/south of this boundary will likely promote moderate to locally strong instability developing by early afternoon. Weak low-level convergence along the front, coupled with modest ascent on the southern fringe of an upper trough over the eastern CONUS, should support robust convective development by 18-20Z along/near the front in south/central GA and coastal SC. Weak westerly low-level flow is forecast to gradually increase with height through mid levels, which is expected to foster sufficient deep-layer shear to support supercells. Large hail should be a concern with this initially discrete activity, and some guidance shows potential for splitting supercells given a relatively long/straight westerly hodograph aloft. Occasional damaging winds will also be a concern with any small bowing clusters that can develop and spread eastward towards the coast through early evening. Weaker low-level convergence with southward extent into southern AL and the FL Panhandle suggests that overall thunderstorm coverage will remain more isolated across these areas. ...Southern Plains... A convectively augmented vorticity maximum/shortwave trough is evident late this morning over NM and west TX. An MCV is also noted in recent radar imagery across parts of northwest TX into the TX Panhandle. A surface cold front is in place over the southern High Plains. Although convective evolution remains somewhat uncertain later today, scattered thunderstorms will probably develop on the southern flank of the shortwave trough along and southwest of the front, and where better daytime heating can occur. Mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear should be a little stronger compared to yesterday, mainly owing to the influence of the MCV and mid-level shortwave trough. Latest high-resolution guidance continues to variability in whether an MCS will develop and become organized across west TX later today. Severe/damaging winds may occur if this scenario is realized, along with some hail with any isolated supercells that can develop. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHEAST GA/COASTAL SC...AND WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts should continue across parts of the northern/central High Plains into early evening. Other strong to severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds will remain possible across portions of the Southeast States and west Texas through this evening. ...20Z Update... Prior forecast reasoning remains largely on-track across the CONUS. Primary categorical change has been to sever parts of the southern High Plains level 1-MRGL risk area to the north/west of the mid-level impulse drifting east-southeast. Here, abundant cloudiness/rain has limited afternoon destabilization. In conjunction with weak deep-layer shear, the potential for an organized severe storm appears negligible. Please see MCD 1228 for in-depth discussion on the severe potential ahead of this impulse in the Permian Basin and TX South Plains. Minor adjustments have also been made across the northern/central High Plains area based on latest convective and observational trends. No changes have been made to the severe threat area in the Southeast States. ..Grams.. 06/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024/ ...Northern/Central High Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough noted on water vapor satellite imagery over the northern Rockies will continue to advance eastward today over the northern High Plains. A related weak surface low over eastern MT should consolidate and shift into Saskatchewan through early afternoon, while a separate surface low develops over the central High Plains. A cold front is progged to move eastward through the afternoon and early evening over the northern High Plains. Low-level moisture will remain fairly limited ahead of the front, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s. But, steep mid-level lapse rates and daytime heating will aid in the development of weak to locally moderate instability in a narrow corridor by mid afternoon. Although mid-level flow is not expected to be overly strong, sufficient veering/strengthening of the flow with height through mid levels will still support generally 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to develop along or just ahead of the front in the 18-20Z time frame. Initial supercells should pose a threat for mainly severe hail, but quick upscale growth into one or more small clusters will probably lead to a greater severe/damaging wind risk as convection moves quickly eastward. A tornado or two also appears possible. The relatively narrow warm sector suggests that thunderstorm intensity should decrease through the early evening with eastward extent across the northern/central High Plains. ...Southeast... Latest surface observations show a weak cold front situated across southern AL/GA into coastal SC. The presence of a moist low-level airmass and robust daytime heating along/south of this boundary will likely promote moderate to locally strong instability developing by early afternoon. Weak low-level convergence along the front, coupled with modest ascent on the southern fringe of an upper trough over the eastern CONUS, should support robust convective development by 18-20Z along/near the front in south/central GA and coastal SC. Weak westerly low-level flow is forecast to gradually increase with height through mid levels, which is expected to foster sufficient deep-layer shear to support supercells. Large hail should be a concern with this initially discrete activity, and some guidance shows potential for splitting supercells given a relatively long/straight westerly hodograph aloft. Occasional damaging winds will also be a concern with any small bowing clusters that can develop and spread eastward towards the coast through early evening. Weaker low-level convergence with southward extent into southern AL and the FL Panhandle suggests that overall thunderstorm coverage will remain more isolated across these areas. ...Southern Plains... A convectively augmented vorticity maximum/shortwave trough is evident late this morning over NM and west TX. An MCV is also noted in recent radar imagery across parts of northwest TX into the TX Panhandle. A surface cold front is in place over the southern High Plains. Although convective evolution remains somewhat uncertain later today, scattered thunderstorms will probably develop on the southern flank of the shortwave trough along and southwest of the front, and where better daytime heating can occur. Mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear should be a little stronger compared to yesterday, mainly owing to the influence of the MCV and mid-level shortwave trough. Latest high-resolution guidance continues to variability in whether an MCS will develop and become organized across west TX later today. Severe/damaging winds may occur if this scenario is realized, along with some hail with any isolated supercells that can develop. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHEAST GA/COASTAL SC...AND WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts should continue across parts of the northern/central High Plains into early evening. Other strong to severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds will remain possible across portions of the Southeast States and west Texas through this evening. ...20Z Update... Prior forecast reasoning remains largely on-track across the CONUS. Primary categorical change has been to sever parts of the southern High Plains level 1-MRGL risk area to the north/west of the mid-level impulse drifting east-southeast. Here, abundant cloudiness/rain has limited afternoon destabilization. In conjunction with weak deep-layer shear, the potential for an organized severe storm appears negligible. Please see MCD 1228 for in-depth discussion on the severe potential ahead of this impulse in the Permian Basin and TX South Plains. Minor adjustments have also been made across the northern/central High Plains area based on latest convective and observational trends. No changes have been made to the severe threat area in the Southeast States. ..Grams.. 06/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024/ ...Northern/Central High Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough noted on water vapor satellite imagery over the northern Rockies will continue to advance eastward today over the northern High Plains. A related weak surface low over eastern MT should consolidate and shift into Saskatchewan through early afternoon, while a separate surface low develops over the central High Plains. A cold front is progged to move eastward through the afternoon and early evening over the northern High Plains. Low-level moisture will remain fairly limited ahead of the front, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s. But, steep mid-level lapse rates and daytime heating will aid in the development of weak to locally moderate instability in a narrow corridor by mid afternoon. Although mid-level flow is not expected to be overly strong, sufficient veering/strengthening of the flow with height through mid levels will still support generally 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to develop along or just ahead of the front in the 18-20Z time frame. Initial supercells should pose a threat for mainly severe hail, but quick upscale growth into one or more small clusters will probably lead to a greater severe/damaging wind risk as convection moves quickly eastward. A tornado or two also appears possible. The relatively narrow warm sector suggests that thunderstorm intensity should decrease through the early evening with eastward extent across the northern/central High Plains. ...Southeast... Latest surface observations show a weak cold front situated across southern AL/GA into coastal SC. The presence of a moist low-level airmass and robust daytime heating along/south of this boundary will likely promote moderate to locally strong instability developing by early afternoon. Weak low-level convergence along the front, coupled with modest ascent on the southern fringe of an upper trough over the eastern CONUS, should support robust convective development by 18-20Z along/near the front in south/central GA and coastal SC. Weak westerly low-level flow is forecast to gradually increase with height through mid levels, which is expected to foster sufficient deep-layer shear to support supercells. Large hail should be a concern with this initially discrete activity, and some guidance shows potential for splitting supercells given a relatively long/straight westerly hodograph aloft. Occasional damaging winds will also be a concern with any small bowing clusters that can develop and spread eastward towards the coast through early evening. Weaker low-level convergence with southward extent into southern AL and the FL Panhandle suggests that overall thunderstorm coverage will remain more isolated across these areas. ...Southern Plains... A convectively augmented vorticity maximum/shortwave trough is evident late this morning over NM and west TX. An MCV is also noted in recent radar imagery across parts of northwest TX into the TX Panhandle. A surface cold front is in place over the southern High Plains. Although convective evolution remains somewhat uncertain later today, scattered thunderstorms will probably develop on the southern flank of the shortwave trough along and southwest of the front, and where better daytime heating can occur. Mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear should be a little stronger compared to yesterday, mainly owing to the influence of the MCV and mid-level shortwave trough. Latest high-resolution guidance continues to variability in whether an MCS will develop and become organized across west TX later today. Severe/damaging winds may occur if this scenario is realized, along with some hail with any isolated supercells that can develop. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHEAST GA/COASTAL SC...AND WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts should continue across parts of the northern/central High Plains into early evening. Other strong to severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds will remain possible across portions of the Southeast States and west Texas through this evening. ...20Z Update... Prior forecast reasoning remains largely on-track across the CONUS. Primary categorical change has been to sever parts of the southern High Plains level 1-MRGL risk area to the north/west of the mid-level impulse drifting east-southeast. Here, abundant cloudiness/rain has limited afternoon destabilization. In conjunction with weak deep-layer shear, the potential for an organized severe storm appears negligible. Please see MCD 1228 for in-depth discussion on the severe potential ahead of this impulse in the Permian Basin and TX South Plains. Minor adjustments have also been made across the northern/central High Plains area based on latest convective and observational trends. No changes have been made to the severe threat area in the Southeast States. ..Grams.. 06/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024/ ...Northern/Central High Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough noted on water vapor satellite imagery over the northern Rockies will continue to advance eastward today over the northern High Plains. A related weak surface low over eastern MT should consolidate and shift into Saskatchewan through early afternoon, while a separate surface low develops over the central High Plains. A cold front is progged to move eastward through the afternoon and early evening over the northern High Plains. Low-level moisture will remain fairly limited ahead of the front, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s. But, steep mid-level lapse rates and daytime heating will aid in the development of weak to locally moderate instability in a narrow corridor by mid afternoon. Although mid-level flow is not expected to be overly strong, sufficient veering/strengthening of the flow with height through mid levels will still support generally 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to develop along or just ahead of the front in the 18-20Z time frame. Initial supercells should pose a threat for mainly severe hail, but quick upscale growth into one or more small clusters will probably lead to a greater severe/damaging wind risk as convection moves quickly eastward. A tornado or two also appears possible. The relatively narrow warm sector suggests that thunderstorm intensity should decrease through the early evening with eastward extent across the northern/central High Plains. ...Southeast... Latest surface observations show a weak cold front situated across southern AL/GA into coastal SC. The presence of a moist low-level airmass and robust daytime heating along/south of this boundary will likely promote moderate to locally strong instability developing by early afternoon. Weak low-level convergence along the front, coupled with modest ascent on the southern fringe of an upper trough over the eastern CONUS, should support robust convective development by 18-20Z along/near the front in south/central GA and coastal SC. Weak westerly low-level flow is forecast to gradually increase with height through mid levels, which is expected to foster sufficient deep-layer shear to support supercells. Large hail should be a concern with this initially discrete activity, and some guidance shows potential for splitting supercells given a relatively long/straight westerly hodograph aloft. Occasional damaging winds will also be a concern with any small bowing clusters that can develop and spread eastward towards the coast through early evening. Weaker low-level convergence with southward extent into southern AL and the FL Panhandle suggests that overall thunderstorm coverage will remain more isolated across these areas. ...Southern Plains... A convectively augmented vorticity maximum/shortwave trough is evident late this morning over NM and west TX. An MCV is also noted in recent radar imagery across parts of northwest TX into the TX Panhandle. A surface cold front is in place over the southern High Plains. Although convective evolution remains somewhat uncertain later today, scattered thunderstorms will probably develop on the southern flank of the shortwave trough along and southwest of the front, and where better daytime heating can occur. Mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear should be a little stronger compared to yesterday, mainly owing to the influence of the MCV and mid-level shortwave trough. Latest high-resolution guidance continues to variability in whether an MCS will develop and become organized across west TX later today. Severe/damaging winds may occur if this scenario is realized, along with some hail with any isolated supercells that can develop. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHEAST GA/COASTAL SC...AND WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts should continue across parts of the northern/central High Plains into early evening. Other strong to severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds will remain possible across portions of the Southeast States and west Texas through this evening. ...20Z Update... Prior forecast reasoning remains largely on-track across the CONUS. Primary categorical change has been to sever parts of the southern High Plains level 1-MRGL risk area to the north/west of the mid-level impulse drifting east-southeast. Here, abundant cloudiness/rain has limited afternoon destabilization. In conjunction with weak deep-layer shear, the potential for an organized severe storm appears negligible. Please see MCD 1228 for in-depth discussion on the severe potential ahead of this impulse in the Permian Basin and TX South Plains. Minor adjustments have also been made across the northern/central High Plains area based on latest convective and observational trends. No changes have been made to the severe threat area in the Southeast States. ..Grams.. 06/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024/ ...Northern/Central High Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough noted on water vapor satellite imagery over the northern Rockies will continue to advance eastward today over the northern High Plains. A related weak surface low over eastern MT should consolidate and shift into Saskatchewan through early afternoon, while a separate surface low develops over the central High Plains. A cold front is progged to move eastward through the afternoon and early evening over the northern High Plains. Low-level moisture will remain fairly limited ahead of the front, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s. But, steep mid-level lapse rates and daytime heating will aid in the development of weak to locally moderate instability in a narrow corridor by mid afternoon. Although mid-level flow is not expected to be overly strong, sufficient veering/strengthening of the flow with height through mid levels will still support generally 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to develop along or just ahead of the front in the 18-20Z time frame. Initial supercells should pose a threat for mainly severe hail, but quick upscale growth into one or more small clusters will probably lead to a greater severe/damaging wind risk as convection moves quickly eastward. A tornado or two also appears possible. The relatively narrow warm sector suggests that thunderstorm intensity should decrease through the early evening with eastward extent across the northern/central High Plains. ...Southeast... Latest surface observations show a weak cold front situated across southern AL/GA into coastal SC. The presence of a moist low-level airmass and robust daytime heating along/south of this boundary will likely promote moderate to locally strong instability developing by early afternoon. Weak low-level convergence along the front, coupled with modest ascent on the southern fringe of an upper trough over the eastern CONUS, should support robust convective development by 18-20Z along/near the front in south/central GA and coastal SC. Weak westerly low-level flow is forecast to gradually increase with height through mid levels, which is expected to foster sufficient deep-layer shear to support supercells. Large hail should be a concern with this initially discrete activity, and some guidance shows potential for splitting supercells given a relatively long/straight westerly hodograph aloft. Occasional damaging winds will also be a concern with any small bowing clusters that can develop and spread eastward towards the coast through early evening. Weaker low-level convergence with southward extent into southern AL and the FL Panhandle suggests that overall thunderstorm coverage will remain more isolated across these areas. ...Southern Plains... A convectively augmented vorticity maximum/shortwave trough is evident late this morning over NM and west TX. An MCV is also noted in recent radar imagery across parts of northwest TX into the TX Panhandle. A surface cold front is in place over the southern High Plains. Although convective evolution remains somewhat uncertain later today, scattered thunderstorms will probably develop on the southern flank of the shortwave trough along and southwest of the front, and where better daytime heating can occur. Mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear should be a little stronger compared to yesterday, mainly owing to the influence of the MCV and mid-level shortwave trough. Latest high-resolution guidance continues to variability in whether an MCS will develop and become organized across west TX later today. Severe/damaging winds may occur if this scenario is realized, along with some hail with any isolated supercells that can develop. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHEAST GA/COASTAL SC...AND WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts should continue across parts of the northern/central High Plains into early evening. Other strong to severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds will remain possible across portions of the Southeast States and west Texas through this evening. ...20Z Update... Prior forecast reasoning remains largely on-track across the CONUS. Primary categorical change has been to sever parts of the southern High Plains level 1-MRGL risk area to the north/west of the mid-level impulse drifting east-southeast. Here, abundant cloudiness/rain has limited afternoon destabilization. In conjunction with weak deep-layer shear, the potential for an organized severe storm appears negligible. Please see MCD 1228 for in-depth discussion on the severe potential ahead of this impulse in the Permian Basin and TX South Plains. Minor adjustments have also been made across the northern/central High Plains area based on latest convective and observational trends. No changes have been made to the severe threat area in the Southeast States. ..Grams.. 06/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024/ ...Northern/Central High Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough noted on water vapor satellite imagery over the northern Rockies will continue to advance eastward today over the northern High Plains. A related weak surface low over eastern MT should consolidate and shift into Saskatchewan through early afternoon, while a separate surface low develops over the central High Plains. A cold front is progged to move eastward through the afternoon and early evening over the northern High Plains. Low-level moisture will remain fairly limited ahead of the front, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s. But, steep mid-level lapse rates and daytime heating will aid in the development of weak to locally moderate instability in a narrow corridor by mid afternoon. Although mid-level flow is not expected to be overly strong, sufficient veering/strengthening of the flow with height through mid levels will still support generally 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to develop along or just ahead of the front in the 18-20Z time frame. Initial supercells should pose a threat for mainly severe hail, but quick upscale growth into one or more small clusters will probably lead to a greater severe/damaging wind risk as convection moves quickly eastward. A tornado or two also appears possible. The relatively narrow warm sector suggests that thunderstorm intensity should decrease through the early evening with eastward extent across the northern/central High Plains. ...Southeast... Latest surface observations show a weak cold front situated across southern AL/GA into coastal SC. The presence of a moist low-level airmass and robust daytime heating along/south of this boundary will likely promote moderate to locally strong instability developing by early afternoon. Weak low-level convergence along the front, coupled with modest ascent on the southern fringe of an upper trough over the eastern CONUS, should support robust convective development by 18-20Z along/near the front in south/central GA and coastal SC. Weak westerly low-level flow is forecast to gradually increase with height through mid levels, which is expected to foster sufficient deep-layer shear to support supercells. Large hail should be a concern with this initially discrete activity, and some guidance shows potential for splitting supercells given a relatively long/straight westerly hodograph aloft. Occasional damaging winds will also be a concern with any small bowing clusters that can develop and spread eastward towards the coast through early evening. Weaker low-level convergence with southward extent into southern AL and the FL Panhandle suggests that overall thunderstorm coverage will remain more isolated across these areas. ...Southern Plains... A convectively augmented vorticity maximum/shortwave trough is evident late this morning over NM and west TX. An MCV is also noted in recent radar imagery across parts of northwest TX into the TX Panhandle. A surface cold front is in place over the southern High Plains. Although convective evolution remains somewhat uncertain later today, scattered thunderstorms will probably develop on the southern flank of the shortwave trough along and southwest of the front, and where better daytime heating can occur. Mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear should be a little stronger compared to yesterday, mainly owing to the influence of the MCV and mid-level shortwave trough. Latest high-resolution guidance continues to variability in whether an MCS will develop and become organized across west TX later today. Severe/damaging winds may occur if this scenario is realized, along with some hail with any isolated supercells that can develop. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHEAST GA/COASTAL SC...AND WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts should continue across parts of the northern/central High Plains into early evening. Other strong to severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds will remain possible across portions of the Southeast States and west Texas through this evening. ...20Z Update... Prior forecast reasoning remains largely on-track across the CONUS. Primary categorical change has been to sever parts of the southern High Plains level 1-MRGL risk area to the north/west of the mid-level impulse drifting east-southeast. Here, abundant cloudiness/rain has limited afternoon destabilization. In conjunction with weak deep-layer shear, the potential for an organized severe storm appears negligible. Please see MCD 1228 for in-depth discussion on the severe potential ahead of this impulse in the Permian Basin and TX South Plains. Minor adjustments have also been made across the northern/central High Plains area based on latest convective and observational trends. No changes have been made to the severe threat area in the Southeast States. ..Grams.. 06/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024/ ...Northern/Central High Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough noted on water vapor satellite imagery over the northern Rockies will continue to advance eastward today over the northern High Plains. A related weak surface low over eastern MT should consolidate and shift into Saskatchewan through early afternoon, while a separate surface low develops over the central High Plains. A cold front is progged to move eastward through the afternoon and early evening over the northern High Plains. Low-level moisture will remain fairly limited ahead of the front, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s. But, steep mid-level lapse rates and daytime heating will aid in the development of weak to locally moderate instability in a narrow corridor by mid afternoon. Although mid-level flow is not expected to be overly strong, sufficient veering/strengthening of the flow with height through mid levels will still support generally 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to develop along or just ahead of the front in the 18-20Z time frame. Initial supercells should pose a threat for mainly severe hail, but quick upscale growth into one or more small clusters will probably lead to a greater severe/damaging wind risk as convection moves quickly eastward. A tornado or two also appears possible. The relatively narrow warm sector suggests that thunderstorm intensity should decrease through the early evening with eastward extent across the northern/central High Plains. ...Southeast... Latest surface observations show a weak cold front situated across southern AL/GA into coastal SC. The presence of a moist low-level airmass and robust daytime heating along/south of this boundary will likely promote moderate to locally strong instability developing by early afternoon. Weak low-level convergence along the front, coupled with modest ascent on the southern fringe of an upper trough over the eastern CONUS, should support robust convective development by 18-20Z along/near the front in south/central GA and coastal SC. Weak westerly low-level flow is forecast to gradually increase with height through mid levels, which is expected to foster sufficient deep-layer shear to support supercells. Large hail should be a concern with this initially discrete activity, and some guidance shows potential for splitting supercells given a relatively long/straight westerly hodograph aloft. Occasional damaging winds will also be a concern with any small bowing clusters that can develop and spread eastward towards the coast through early evening. Weaker low-level convergence with southward extent into southern AL and the FL Panhandle suggests that overall thunderstorm coverage will remain more isolated across these areas. ...Southern Plains... A convectively augmented vorticity maximum/shortwave trough is evident late this morning over NM and west TX. An MCV is also noted in recent radar imagery across parts of northwest TX into the TX Panhandle. A surface cold front is in place over the southern High Plains. Although convective evolution remains somewhat uncertain later today, scattered thunderstorms will probably develop on the southern flank of the shortwave trough along and southwest of the front, and where better daytime heating can occur. Mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear should be a little stronger compared to yesterday, mainly owing to the influence of the MCV and mid-level shortwave trough. Latest high-resolution guidance continues to variability in whether an MCS will develop and become organized across west TX later today. Severe/damaging winds may occur if this scenario is realized, along with some hail with any isolated supercells that can develop. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHEAST GA/COASTAL SC...AND WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts should continue across parts of the northern/central High Plains into early evening. Other strong to severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds will remain possible across portions of the Southeast States and west Texas through this evening. ...20Z Update... Prior forecast reasoning remains largely on-track across the CONUS. Primary categorical change has been to sever parts of the southern High Plains level 1-MRGL risk area to the north/west of the mid-level impulse drifting east-southeast. Here, abundant cloudiness/rain has limited afternoon destabilization. In conjunction with weak deep-layer shear, the potential for an organized severe storm appears negligible. Please see MCD 1228 for in-depth discussion on the severe potential ahead of this impulse in the Permian Basin and TX South Plains. Minor adjustments have also been made across the northern/central High Plains area based on latest convective and observational trends. No changes have been made to the severe threat area in the Southeast States. ..Grams.. 06/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024/ ...Northern/Central High Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough noted on water vapor satellite imagery over the northern Rockies will continue to advance eastward today over the northern High Plains. A related weak surface low over eastern MT should consolidate and shift into Saskatchewan through early afternoon, while a separate surface low develops over the central High Plains. A cold front is progged to move eastward through the afternoon and early evening over the northern High Plains. Low-level moisture will remain fairly limited ahead of the front, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s. But, steep mid-level lapse rates and daytime heating will aid in the development of weak to locally moderate instability in a narrow corridor by mid afternoon. Although mid-level flow is not expected to be overly strong, sufficient veering/strengthening of the flow with height through mid levels will still support generally 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to develop along or just ahead of the front in the 18-20Z time frame. Initial supercells should pose a threat for mainly severe hail, but quick upscale growth into one or more small clusters will probably lead to a greater severe/damaging wind risk as convection moves quickly eastward. A tornado or two also appears possible. The relatively narrow warm sector suggests that thunderstorm intensity should decrease through the early evening with eastward extent across the northern/central High Plains. ...Southeast... Latest surface observations show a weak cold front situated across southern AL/GA into coastal SC. The presence of a moist low-level airmass and robust daytime heating along/south of this boundary will likely promote moderate to locally strong instability developing by early afternoon. Weak low-level convergence along the front, coupled with modest ascent on the southern fringe of an upper trough over the eastern CONUS, should support robust convective development by 18-20Z along/near the front in south/central GA and coastal SC. Weak westerly low-level flow is forecast to gradually increase with height through mid levels, which is expected to foster sufficient deep-layer shear to support supercells. Large hail should be a concern with this initially discrete activity, and some guidance shows potential for splitting supercells given a relatively long/straight westerly hodograph aloft. Occasional damaging winds will also be a concern with any small bowing clusters that can develop and spread eastward towards the coast through early evening. Weaker low-level convergence with southward extent into southern AL and the FL Panhandle suggests that overall thunderstorm coverage will remain more isolated across these areas. ...Southern Plains... A convectively augmented vorticity maximum/shortwave trough is evident late this morning over NM and west TX. An MCV is also noted in recent radar imagery across parts of northwest TX into the TX Panhandle. A surface cold front is in place over the southern High Plains. Although convective evolution remains somewhat uncertain later today, scattered thunderstorms will probably develop on the southern flank of the shortwave trough along and southwest of the front, and where better daytime heating can occur. Mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear should be a little stronger compared to yesterday, mainly owing to the influence of the MCV and mid-level shortwave trough. Latest high-resolution guidance continues to variability in whether an MCS will develop and become organized across west TX later today. Severe/damaging winds may occur if this scenario is realized, along with some hail with any isolated supercells that can develop. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHEAST GA/COASTAL SC...AND WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts should continue across parts of the northern/central High Plains into early evening. Other strong to severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds will remain possible across portions of the Southeast States and west Texas through this evening. ...20Z Update... Prior forecast reasoning remains largely on-track across the CONUS. Primary categorical change has been to sever parts of the southern High Plains level 1-MRGL risk area to the north/west of the mid-level impulse drifting east-southeast. Here, abundant cloudiness/rain has limited afternoon destabilization. In conjunction with weak deep-layer shear, the potential for an organized severe storm appears negligible. Please see MCD 1228 for in-depth discussion on the severe potential ahead of this impulse in the Permian Basin and TX South Plains. Minor adjustments have also been made across the northern/central High Plains area based on latest convective and observational trends. No changes have been made to the severe threat area in the Southeast States. ..Grams.. 06/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024/ ...Northern/Central High Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough noted on water vapor satellite imagery over the northern Rockies will continue to advance eastward today over the northern High Plains. A related weak surface low over eastern MT should consolidate and shift into Saskatchewan through early afternoon, while a separate surface low develops over the central High Plains. A cold front is progged to move eastward through the afternoon and early evening over the northern High Plains. Low-level moisture will remain fairly limited ahead of the front, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s. But, steep mid-level lapse rates and daytime heating will aid in the development of weak to locally moderate instability in a narrow corridor by mid afternoon. Although mid-level flow is not expected to be overly strong, sufficient veering/strengthening of the flow with height through mid levels will still support generally 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to develop along or just ahead of the front in the 18-20Z time frame. Initial supercells should pose a threat for mainly severe hail, but quick upscale growth into one or more small clusters will probably lead to a greater severe/damaging wind risk as convection moves quickly eastward. A tornado or two also appears possible. The relatively narrow warm sector suggests that thunderstorm intensity should decrease through the early evening with eastward extent across the northern/central High Plains. ...Southeast... Latest surface observations show a weak cold front situated across southern AL/GA into coastal SC. The presence of a moist low-level airmass and robust daytime heating along/south of this boundary will likely promote moderate to locally strong instability developing by early afternoon. Weak low-level convergence along the front, coupled with modest ascent on the southern fringe of an upper trough over the eastern CONUS, should support robust convective development by 18-20Z along/near the front in south/central GA and coastal SC. Weak westerly low-level flow is forecast to gradually increase with height through mid levels, which is expected to foster sufficient deep-layer shear to support supercells. Large hail should be a concern with this initially discrete activity, and some guidance shows potential for splitting supercells given a relatively long/straight westerly hodograph aloft. Occasional damaging winds will also be a concern with any small bowing clusters that can develop and spread eastward towards the coast through early evening. Weaker low-level convergence with southward extent into southern AL and the FL Panhandle suggests that overall thunderstorm coverage will remain more isolated across these areas. ...Southern Plains... A convectively augmented vorticity maximum/shortwave trough is evident late this morning over NM and west TX. An MCV is also noted in recent radar imagery across parts of northwest TX into the TX Panhandle. A surface cold front is in place over the southern High Plains. Although convective evolution remains somewhat uncertain later today, scattered thunderstorms will probably develop on the southern flank of the shortwave trough along and southwest of the front, and where better daytime heating can occur. Mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear should be a little stronger compared to yesterday, mainly owing to the influence of the MCV and mid-level shortwave trough. Latest high-resolution guidance continues to variability in whether an MCS will develop and become organized across west TX later today. Severe/damaging winds may occur if this scenario is realized, along with some hail with any isolated supercells that can develop. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHEAST GA/COASTAL SC...AND WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts should continue across parts of the northern/central High Plains into early evening. Other strong to severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds will remain possible across portions of the Southeast States and west Texas through this evening. ...20Z Update... Prior forecast reasoning remains largely on-track across the CONUS. Primary categorical change has been to sever parts of the southern High Plains level 1-MRGL risk area to the north/west of the mid-level impulse drifting east-southeast. Here, abundant cloudiness/rain has limited afternoon destabilization. In conjunction with weak deep-layer shear, the potential for an organized severe storm appears negligible. Please see MCD 1228 for in-depth discussion on the severe potential ahead of this impulse in the Permian Basin and TX South Plains. Minor adjustments have also been made across the northern/central High Plains area based on latest convective and observational trends. No changes have been made to the severe threat area in the Southeast States. ..Grams.. 06/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024/ ...Northern/Central High Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough noted on water vapor satellite imagery over the northern Rockies will continue to advance eastward today over the northern High Plains. A related weak surface low over eastern MT should consolidate and shift into Saskatchewan through early afternoon, while a separate surface low develops over the central High Plains. A cold front is progged to move eastward through the afternoon and early evening over the northern High Plains. Low-level moisture will remain fairly limited ahead of the front, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s. But, steep mid-level lapse rates and daytime heating will aid in the development of weak to locally moderate instability in a narrow corridor by mid afternoon. Although mid-level flow is not expected to be overly strong, sufficient veering/strengthening of the flow with height through mid levels will still support generally 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to develop along or just ahead of the front in the 18-20Z time frame. Initial supercells should pose a threat for mainly severe hail, but quick upscale growth into one or more small clusters will probably lead to a greater severe/damaging wind risk as convection moves quickly eastward. A tornado or two also appears possible. The relatively narrow warm sector suggests that thunderstorm intensity should decrease through the early evening with eastward extent across the northern/central High Plains. ...Southeast... Latest surface observations show a weak cold front situated across southern AL/GA into coastal SC. The presence of a moist low-level airmass and robust daytime heating along/south of this boundary will likely promote moderate to locally strong instability developing by early afternoon. Weak low-level convergence along the front, coupled with modest ascent on the southern fringe of an upper trough over the eastern CONUS, should support robust convective development by 18-20Z along/near the front in south/central GA and coastal SC. Weak westerly low-level flow is forecast to gradually increase with height through mid levels, which is expected to foster sufficient deep-layer shear to support supercells. Large hail should be a concern with this initially discrete activity, and some guidance shows potential for splitting supercells given a relatively long/straight westerly hodograph aloft. Occasional damaging winds will also be a concern with any small bowing clusters that can develop and spread eastward towards the coast through early evening. Weaker low-level convergence with southward extent into southern AL and the FL Panhandle suggests that overall thunderstorm coverage will remain more isolated across these areas. ...Southern Plains... A convectively augmented vorticity maximum/shortwave trough is evident late this morning over NM and west TX. An MCV is also noted in recent radar imagery across parts of northwest TX into the TX Panhandle. A surface cold front is in place over the southern High Plains. Although convective evolution remains somewhat uncertain later today, scattered thunderstorms will probably develop on the southern flank of the shortwave trough along and southwest of the front, and where better daytime heating can occur. Mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear should be a little stronger compared to yesterday, mainly owing to the influence of the MCV and mid-level shortwave trough. Latest high-resolution guidance continues to variability in whether an MCS will develop and become organized across west TX later today. Severe/damaging winds may occur if this scenario is realized, along with some hail with any isolated supercells that can develop. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHEAST GA/COASTAL SC...AND WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts should continue across parts of the northern/central High Plains into early evening. Other strong to severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds will remain possible across portions of the Southeast States and west Texas through this evening. ...20Z Update... Prior forecast reasoning remains largely on-track across the CONUS. Primary categorical change has been to sever parts of the southern High Plains level 1-MRGL risk area to the north/west of the mid-level impulse drifting east-southeast. Here, abundant cloudiness/rain has limited afternoon destabilization. In conjunction with weak deep-layer shear, the potential for an organized severe storm appears negligible. Please see MCD 1228 for in-depth discussion on the severe potential ahead of this impulse in the Permian Basin and TX South Plains. Minor adjustments have also been made across the northern/central High Plains area based on latest convective and observational trends. No changes have been made to the severe threat area in the Southeast States. ..Grams.. 06/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024/ ...Northern/Central High Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough noted on water vapor satellite imagery over the northern Rockies will continue to advance eastward today over the northern High Plains. A related weak surface low over eastern MT should consolidate and shift into Saskatchewan through early afternoon, while a separate surface low develops over the central High Plains. A cold front is progged to move eastward through the afternoon and early evening over the northern High Plains. Low-level moisture will remain fairly limited ahead of the front, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s. But, steep mid-level lapse rates and daytime heating will aid in the development of weak to locally moderate instability in a narrow corridor by mid afternoon. Although mid-level flow is not expected to be overly strong, sufficient veering/strengthening of the flow with height through mid levels will still support generally 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to develop along or just ahead of the front in the 18-20Z time frame. Initial supercells should pose a threat for mainly severe hail, but quick upscale growth into one or more small clusters will probably lead to a greater severe/damaging wind risk as convection moves quickly eastward. A tornado or two also appears possible. The relatively narrow warm sector suggests that thunderstorm intensity should decrease through the early evening with eastward extent across the northern/central High Plains. ...Southeast... Latest surface observations show a weak cold front situated across southern AL/GA into coastal SC. The presence of a moist low-level airmass and robust daytime heating along/south of this boundary will likely promote moderate to locally strong instability developing by early afternoon. Weak low-level convergence along the front, coupled with modest ascent on the southern fringe of an upper trough over the eastern CONUS, should support robust convective development by 18-20Z along/near the front in south/central GA and coastal SC. Weak westerly low-level flow is forecast to gradually increase with height through mid levels, which is expected to foster sufficient deep-layer shear to support supercells. Large hail should be a concern with this initially discrete activity, and some guidance shows potential for splitting supercells given a relatively long/straight westerly hodograph aloft. Occasional damaging winds will also be a concern with any small bowing clusters that can develop and spread eastward towards the coast through early evening. Weaker low-level convergence with southward extent into southern AL and the FL Panhandle suggests that overall thunderstorm coverage will remain more isolated across these areas. ...Southern Plains... A convectively augmented vorticity maximum/shortwave trough is evident late this morning over NM and west TX. An MCV is also noted in recent radar imagery across parts of northwest TX into the TX Panhandle. A surface cold front is in place over the southern High Plains. Although convective evolution remains somewhat uncertain later today, scattered thunderstorms will probably develop on the southern flank of the shortwave trough along and southwest of the front, and where better daytime heating can occur. Mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear should be a little stronger compared to yesterday, mainly owing to the influence of the MCV and mid-level shortwave trough. Latest high-resolution guidance continues to variability in whether an MCS will develop and become organized across west TX later today. Severe/damaging winds may occur if this scenario is realized, along with some hail with any isolated supercells that can develop. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHEAST GA/COASTAL SC...AND WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts should continue across parts of the northern/central High Plains into early evening. Other strong to severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds will remain possible across portions of the Southeast States and west Texas through this evening. ...20Z Update... Prior forecast reasoning remains largely on-track across the CONUS. Primary categorical change has been to sever parts of the southern High Plains level 1-MRGL risk area to the north/west of the mid-level impulse drifting east-southeast. Here, abundant cloudiness/rain has limited afternoon destabilization. In conjunction with weak deep-layer shear, the potential for an organized severe storm appears negligible. Please see MCD 1228 for in-depth discussion on the severe potential ahead of this impulse in the Permian Basin and TX South Plains. Minor adjustments have also been made across the northern/central High Plains area based on latest convective and observational trends. No changes have been made to the severe threat area in the Southeast States. ..Grams.. 06/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024/ ...Northern/Central High Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough noted on water vapor satellite imagery over the northern Rockies will continue to advance eastward today over the northern High Plains. A related weak surface low over eastern MT should consolidate and shift into Saskatchewan through early afternoon, while a separate surface low develops over the central High Plains. A cold front is progged to move eastward through the afternoon and early evening over the northern High Plains. Low-level moisture will remain fairly limited ahead of the front, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s. But, steep mid-level lapse rates and daytime heating will aid in the development of weak to locally moderate instability in a narrow corridor by mid afternoon. Although mid-level flow is not expected to be overly strong, sufficient veering/strengthening of the flow with height through mid levels will still support generally 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to develop along or just ahead of the front in the 18-20Z time frame. Initial supercells should pose a threat for mainly severe hail, but quick upscale growth into one or more small clusters will probably lead to a greater severe/damaging wind risk as convection moves quickly eastward. A tornado or two also appears possible. The relatively narrow warm sector suggests that thunderstorm intensity should decrease through the early evening with eastward extent across the northern/central High Plains. ...Southeast... Latest surface observations show a weak cold front situated across southern AL/GA into coastal SC. The presence of a moist low-level airmass and robust daytime heating along/south of this boundary will likely promote moderate to locally strong instability developing by early afternoon. Weak low-level convergence along the front, coupled with modest ascent on the southern fringe of an upper trough over the eastern CONUS, should support robust convective development by 18-20Z along/near the front in south/central GA and coastal SC. Weak westerly low-level flow is forecast to gradually increase with height through mid levels, which is expected to foster sufficient deep-layer shear to support supercells. Large hail should be a concern with this initially discrete activity, and some guidance shows potential for splitting supercells given a relatively long/straight westerly hodograph aloft. Occasional damaging winds will also be a concern with any small bowing clusters that can develop and spread eastward towards the coast through early evening. Weaker low-level convergence with southward extent into southern AL and the FL Panhandle suggests that overall thunderstorm coverage will remain more isolated across these areas. ...Southern Plains... A convectively augmented vorticity maximum/shortwave trough is evident late this morning over NM and west TX. An MCV is also noted in recent radar imagery across parts of northwest TX into the TX Panhandle. A surface cold front is in place over the southern High Plains. Although convective evolution remains somewhat uncertain later today, scattered thunderstorms will probably develop on the southern flank of the shortwave trough along and southwest of the front, and where better daytime heating can occur. Mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear should be a little stronger compared to yesterday, mainly owing to the influence of the MCV and mid-level shortwave trough. Latest high-resolution guidance continues to variability in whether an MCS will develop and become organized across west TX later today. Severe/damaging winds may occur if this scenario is realized, along with some hail with any isolated supercells that can develop. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHEAST GA/COASTAL SC...AND WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts should continue across parts of the northern/central High Plains into early evening. Other strong to severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds will remain possible across portions of the Southeast States and west Texas through this evening. ...20Z Update... Prior forecast reasoning remains largely on-track across the CONUS. Primary categorical change has been to sever parts of the southern High Plains level 1-MRGL risk area to the north/west of the mid-level impulse drifting east-southeast. Here, abundant cloudiness/rain has limited afternoon destabilization. In conjunction with weak deep-layer shear, the potential for an organized severe storm appears negligible. Please see MCD 1228 for in-depth discussion on the severe potential ahead of this impulse in the Permian Basin and TX South Plains. Minor adjustments have also been made across the northern/central High Plains area based on latest convective and observational trends. No changes have been made to the severe threat area in the Southeast States. ..Grams.. 06/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024/ ...Northern/Central High Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough noted on water vapor satellite imagery over the northern Rockies will continue to advance eastward today over the northern High Plains. A related weak surface low over eastern MT should consolidate and shift into Saskatchewan through early afternoon, while a separate surface low develops over the central High Plains. A cold front is progged to move eastward through the afternoon and early evening over the northern High Plains. Low-level moisture will remain fairly limited ahead of the front, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s. But, steep mid-level lapse rates and daytime heating will aid in the development of weak to locally moderate instability in a narrow corridor by mid afternoon. Although mid-level flow is not expected to be overly strong, sufficient veering/strengthening of the flow with height through mid levels will still support generally 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to develop along or just ahead of the front in the 18-20Z time frame. Initial supercells should pose a threat for mainly severe hail, but quick upscale growth into one or more small clusters will probably lead to a greater severe/damaging wind risk as convection moves quickly eastward. A tornado or two also appears possible. The relatively narrow warm sector suggests that thunderstorm intensity should decrease through the early evening with eastward extent across the northern/central High Plains. ...Southeast... Latest surface observations show a weak cold front situated across southern AL/GA into coastal SC. The presence of a moist low-level airmass and robust daytime heating along/south of this boundary will likely promote moderate to locally strong instability developing by early afternoon. Weak low-level convergence along the front, coupled with modest ascent on the southern fringe of an upper trough over the eastern CONUS, should support robust convective development by 18-20Z along/near the front in south/central GA and coastal SC. Weak westerly low-level flow is forecast to gradually increase with height through mid levels, which is expected to foster sufficient deep-layer shear to support supercells. Large hail should be a concern with this initially discrete activity, and some guidance shows potential for splitting supercells given a relatively long/straight westerly hodograph aloft. Occasional damaging winds will also be a concern with any small bowing clusters that can develop and spread eastward towards the coast through early evening. Weaker low-level convergence with southward extent into southern AL and the FL Panhandle suggests that overall thunderstorm coverage will remain more isolated across these areas. ...Southern Plains... A convectively augmented vorticity maximum/shortwave trough is evident late this morning over NM and west TX. An MCV is also noted in recent radar imagery across parts of northwest TX into the TX Panhandle. A surface cold front is in place over the southern High Plains. Although convective evolution remains somewhat uncertain later today, scattered thunderstorms will probably develop on the southern flank of the shortwave trough along and southwest of the front, and where better daytime heating can occur. Mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear should be a little stronger compared to yesterday, mainly owing to the influence of the MCV and mid-level shortwave trough. Latest high-resolution guidance continues to variability in whether an MCS will develop and become organized across west TX later today. Severe/damaging winds may occur if this scenario is realized, along with some hail with any isolated supercells that can develop. Read more

WW 0404 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 404 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..06/10/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...BIS...CYS...LBF...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 404 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-102040- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER NEC007-013-033-045-049-069-105-123-157-161-165-102040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE DAWES DEUEL GARDEN KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN SIOUX NDC001-011-102040- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BOWMAN Read more

MD 1227 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHERN MS INTO SOUTHERN AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1227 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Areas affected...far southern MS into southern AL...southwest GA...and parts of the FL Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 101750Z - 101945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through the afternoon. Strong gusts and marginally severe hail are possible with the strongest storms. DISCUSSION...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to continue developing through the afternoon in the vicinity of a stationary surface boundary draped across the region. Large-scale ascent is expected to remain weak and low-level convergence limited. However, strong heating surface dewpoints generally in the low 70s is resulting in MLCAPE values to 2500 J/kg. Deep-layer flow will remain mostly unidirectional from the west/southwest and also fairly weak through 4-5 km. Strengthening flow from about 500 mb upwards will however support effective shear magnitudes around 25-30 kt. Forecast soundings show elongated hodographs, and a brief/transient supercell or two will be possible with better organized convection. Overall this environment should support thunderstorms capable of gusts from 45-60 mph and hail to near 1 inch diameter. A watch probably will not be needed given overall marginal nature of the parameter space, but convective trends will be monitored. ..Leitman/Gleason.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX... LAT...LON 31198830 31978530 32108433 31698385 30948397 30608500 30338605 30318747 30368851 30538885 30708893 30878888 31198830 Read more

MD 1226 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1226 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Areas affected...Eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 101746Z - 101945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development along a cold front is anticipated within the next 1-2 hours across parts of the northern High Plains. Initially discrete cells will pose a severe hail/wind, and perhaps a tornado, risk before eventual upscale growth later this evening. Watch issuance will likely be needed given favorable environmental wind shear and improving buoyancy. DISCUSSION...Recent GOES visible imagery and surface observations show the eastward progression of a low to mid-level cold front across the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains over the past few hours. Thunderstorm development is expected along this boundary as it impinges on the western fringe of returning low-level moisture across WY/NE/SD (where dewpoints are climbing into the mid to upper 50s). This somewhat high moisture content (dewpoints are near the 90th percentile for the northern High Plains for early/mid June) overlaid with 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates should support MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg across the region by mid-afternoon as thunderstorms develop and/or mature. Deep-layer flow orthogonal to the front should support initially discrete cells, including the potential for a few supercells, with an attendant large hail (possibly up to 2 inches in diameter), severe wind, and perhaps a brief tornado threat - especially across northwestern SD where low-level winds are more south/southeasterly ahead of a diffuse surface trough. Strong frontal forcing should foster a gradual upscale growth into one or more semi-organized clusters or lines with an attendant increase in the severe wind potential. Watch issuance will be needed within the next hour or so to address these concerns. ..Moore/Gleason.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... LAT...LON 43310636 44370548 45280482 45750430 46180334 46210291 45950242 45280220 44470221 43630251 42970296 42580354 42330413 42180466 42190518 42370564 42500593 42810628 42930635 43310636 Read more

WW 0403 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 403 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..06/10/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...CHS...CAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 403 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC001-005-029-031-033-043-051-069-091-103-107-109-161-165-167- 175-179-183-191-209-251-267-271-279-283-305-309-102040- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPLING BACON BRYAN BULLOCH BURKE CANDLER CHATHAM COFFEE DODGE EFFINGHAM EMANUEL EVANS JEFF DAVIS JENKINS JOHNSON LAURENS LIBERTY LONG MCINTOSH MONTGOMERY SCREVEN TATTNALL TELFAIR TOOMBS TREUTLEN WAYNE WHEELER SCC005-009-011-013-015-019-029-035-049-053-075-102040- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLENDALE BAMBERG BARNWELL BEAUFORT BERKELEY CHARLESTON COLLETON DORCHESTER HAMPTON JASPER ORANGEBURG Read more

MD 1225 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST GA INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN SC
Mesoscale Discussion 1225 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Areas affected...southeast GA into extreme southern SC Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 101731Z - 101930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms capable of hail to 2 inch diameter and gusts to 65 mph are expected to develop over the next 1-2 hours. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is expected by 19z. DISCUSSION...Strong heating has allowed for inhibition to rapidly erode early this afternoon. Widespread vertically developing cumulus is noted where skies have remained mostly clear across southern/central GA. Development is a bit slower further east into SC where thin cloud cover has mildly muted heating. Regardless, another 1-2 hours of heating will result continued erosion of inhibition downstream. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F amid modest midlevel lapse rates of 6.5-7 C/km is resulting in moderate destabilization from west to east along a surface boundary. While deep-layer flow will remain mostly unidirectional from the southwest, increasing speed with height is supporting elongated, somewhat straight hodographs, and effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt. This environment will support supercells storms capable of large hail. With time, convective coverage should become quite widespread and clustering my further enhance strong/severe wind gust potential. Convection should develop/increase in coverage by 19-20z and a watch will likely be needed in the next hour or so. ..Leitman/Gleason.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 32348374 32838325 33248218 33368107 33517997 33457951 33367922 33187900 32947895 32587918 31868025 31418081 31138136 31098273 31288337 31608376 32018382 32348374 Read more

WW 0404 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0404 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Overall, the previous forecast remains valid. Please see the discussion below for additional details. A small Elevated area was considered for southeast and east-central OR Tuesday afternoon, where westerly sustained surface winds around 15-25 mph are anticipated in combination with minimum RH dropping below 25 percent. However, only localized receptive fuels currently exist there, leading to lower confidence in both fire ignition and spread. ..Barnes.. 06/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale ridge will build over the Southwest, favoring increasingly warm/dry conditions across the region -- especially over the Desert Southwest. While surface winds may be slightly more breezy than Day 1/Monday, owing to a weak surface low over southwest AZ, any elevated fire-weather conditions appear too localized for highlights at this time. Farther north, a strong westerly midlevel jet will overspread the Pacific Northwest, while a cold front crosses the region. As a result, breezy west-northwesterly surface winds and locally dry conditions are possible along/east of the Cascades in WA and OR. This combination may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions, though a limited overlap of the strongest surface winds and low RH precludes highlights at this time (especially given the current state of fuels). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more