Severe Storms

WW 0404 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 404 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE CPR TO 55 WSW RAP TO 30 NNE RAP TO 20 SSW Y22 TO 40 ESE DIK. ..LYONS..06/10/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...BIS...CYS...LBF...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 404 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-007-013-031-033-045-049-069-075-091-101-105-123-157-161- 165-102340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BANNER BOX BUTTE CHERRY CHEYENNE DAWES DEUEL GARDEN GRANT HOOKER KEITH KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN SIOUX SDC007-033-047-055-071-093-102-103-105-137-102340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT CUSTER FALL RIVER HAAKON JACKSON MEADE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON PERKINS ZIEBACH Read more

WW 404 SEVERE TSTM MT ND NE SD WY 101845Z - 110200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 404 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far Southeast Montana Far Southwest North Dakota The Nebraska Panhandle Western South Dakota Eastern Wyoming * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1245 PM until 800 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to strengthen this afternoon and early evening while posing a threat for large hail around 1-2 inches in diameter and severe/damaging wind gusts of 60-70 mph. A brief tornado may also occur with any sustained supercell, especially in western South Dakota. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 165 statute miles north and south of a line from 95 miles north northwest of Torrington WY to 55 miles east southeast of Rapid City SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 403... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Gleason Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0510 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...Overview... Increasing elevated to critical fire spread conditions are expected across the Great Basin, Southwest, and portions of the Pacific Northwest over the next several days. Fuels will continue to generally become more receptive across these regions due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and hot, dry conditions. The most significant overlap of meteorological parameters and deteriorating fuel states is expected D5/Friday near the NM/AZ border. ...Synopsis... By the middle of the week, an upper-level ridge will remain over the southern and central Rockies, while a closed, cut-off low approaches southern CA. Further north across most of the northern CONUS, strong zonal mid to upper-level flow is expected from the Pacific Northwest through the Great Lakes. As the aforementioned closed low moves onshore D4/Thursday, associated strengthening mid-level winds are expected over a deeply mixed lower troposphere across portions of southern NV and northwestern AZ, in addition to a tightening surface pressure gradient. Low critical probabilities have been included for this region, where coincident RH should again drop into the low teens to single digits. This closed low will begin to open and shift eastward over the Southwest D5/Friday, as a north Pacific mid to upper-level shortwave trough and jet traverse WA and OR. Long-term NWP global ensemble consensus has led to enough confidence of critical sustained winds and RH to introduce 70 percent probabilities along/near the AZ/NM border from around the Colorado Plateau and southward. Low probabilities of critical conditions were also included for far northern OR and WA along and east of the Cascades under a mid-level jet axis, where ERC percentiles will begin to approach or exceed 90-95. The low probabilities for D6/Saturday have been shifted westward over northwestern AZ, southwestern UT, and far southeastern NV under the nose of a secondary, more subtle mid-level westerly jet max, and where a tightening surface pressure gradient will likely reside. Further east across the rest of AZ and NM, surface wind speeds should diminish behind the exiting mid-level shortwave trough moving into the Central Plains, although minimum RH will still remain very low (single digits) there. Similar, and perhaps even more widespread, elevated to critical meteorological conditions are anticipated by D7/Sunday over central AZ and far western NM. In addition to increasing confidence of at least elevated dry, and windy conditions throughout the Southwest and Great Basin in the extended forecast, isolated thunderstorms may accompany increasing mid-level moisture atop well mixed sub-cloud layers. Erratic winds, and perhaps Isolated Dry Thunderstorms, cannot be ruled out. However, confidence in more precise locations of these phenomenon is too low to introduce probabilities for the time being. ..Barnes.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0510 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...Overview... Increasing elevated to critical fire spread conditions are expected across the Great Basin, Southwest, and portions of the Pacific Northwest over the next several days. Fuels will continue to generally become more receptive across these regions due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and hot, dry conditions. The most significant overlap of meteorological parameters and deteriorating fuel states is expected D5/Friday near the NM/AZ border. ...Synopsis... By the middle of the week, an upper-level ridge will remain over the southern and central Rockies, while a closed, cut-off low approaches southern CA. Further north across most of the northern CONUS, strong zonal mid to upper-level flow is expected from the Pacific Northwest through the Great Lakes. As the aforementioned closed low moves onshore D4/Thursday, associated strengthening mid-level winds are expected over a deeply mixed lower troposphere across portions of southern NV and northwestern AZ, in addition to a tightening surface pressure gradient. Low critical probabilities have been included for this region, where coincident RH should again drop into the low teens to single digits. This closed low will begin to open and shift eastward over the Southwest D5/Friday, as a north Pacific mid to upper-level shortwave trough and jet traverse WA and OR. Long-term NWP global ensemble consensus has led to enough confidence of critical sustained winds and RH to introduce 70 percent probabilities along/near the AZ/NM border from around the Colorado Plateau and southward. Low probabilities of critical conditions were also included for far northern OR and WA along and east of the Cascades under a mid-level jet axis, where ERC percentiles will begin to approach or exceed 90-95. The low probabilities for D6/Saturday have been shifted westward over northwestern AZ, southwestern UT, and far southeastern NV under the nose of a secondary, more subtle mid-level westerly jet max, and where a tightening surface pressure gradient will likely reside. Further east across the rest of AZ and NM, surface wind speeds should diminish behind the exiting mid-level shortwave trough moving into the Central Plains, although minimum RH will still remain very low (single digits) there. Similar, and perhaps even more widespread, elevated to critical meteorological conditions are anticipated by D7/Sunday over central AZ and far western NM. In addition to increasing confidence of at least elevated dry, and windy conditions throughout the Southwest and Great Basin in the extended forecast, isolated thunderstorms may accompany increasing mid-level moisture atop well mixed sub-cloud layers. Erratic winds, and perhaps Isolated Dry Thunderstorms, cannot be ruled out. However, confidence in more precise locations of these phenomenon is too low to introduce probabilities for the time being. ..Barnes.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0510 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...Overview... Increasing elevated to critical fire spread conditions are expected across the Great Basin, Southwest, and portions of the Pacific Northwest over the next several days. Fuels will continue to generally become more receptive across these regions due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and hot, dry conditions. The most significant overlap of meteorological parameters and deteriorating fuel states is expected D5/Friday near the NM/AZ border. ...Synopsis... By the middle of the week, an upper-level ridge will remain over the southern and central Rockies, while a closed, cut-off low approaches southern CA. Further north across most of the northern CONUS, strong zonal mid to upper-level flow is expected from the Pacific Northwest through the Great Lakes. As the aforementioned closed low moves onshore D4/Thursday, associated strengthening mid-level winds are expected over a deeply mixed lower troposphere across portions of southern NV and northwestern AZ, in addition to a tightening surface pressure gradient. Low critical probabilities have been included for this region, where coincident RH should again drop into the low teens to single digits. This closed low will begin to open and shift eastward over the Southwest D5/Friday, as a north Pacific mid to upper-level shortwave trough and jet traverse WA and OR. Long-term NWP global ensemble consensus has led to enough confidence of critical sustained winds and RH to introduce 70 percent probabilities along/near the AZ/NM border from around the Colorado Plateau and southward. Low probabilities of critical conditions were also included for far northern OR and WA along and east of the Cascades under a mid-level jet axis, where ERC percentiles will begin to approach or exceed 90-95. The low probabilities for D6/Saturday have been shifted westward over northwestern AZ, southwestern UT, and far southeastern NV under the nose of a secondary, more subtle mid-level westerly jet max, and where a tightening surface pressure gradient will likely reside. Further east across the rest of AZ and NM, surface wind speeds should diminish behind the exiting mid-level shortwave trough moving into the Central Plains, although minimum RH will still remain very low (single digits) there. Similar, and perhaps even more widespread, elevated to critical meteorological conditions are anticipated by D7/Sunday over central AZ and far western NM. In addition to increasing confidence of at least elevated dry, and windy conditions throughout the Southwest and Great Basin in the extended forecast, isolated thunderstorms may accompany increasing mid-level moisture atop well mixed sub-cloud layers. Erratic winds, and perhaps Isolated Dry Thunderstorms, cannot be ruled out. However, confidence in more precise locations of these phenomenon is too low to introduce probabilities for the time being. ..Barnes.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0510 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...Overview... Increasing elevated to critical fire spread conditions are expected across the Great Basin, Southwest, and portions of the Pacific Northwest over the next several days. Fuels will continue to generally become more receptive across these regions due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and hot, dry conditions. The most significant overlap of meteorological parameters and deteriorating fuel states is expected D5/Friday near the NM/AZ border. ...Synopsis... By the middle of the week, an upper-level ridge will remain over the southern and central Rockies, while a closed, cut-off low approaches southern CA. Further north across most of the northern CONUS, strong zonal mid to upper-level flow is expected from the Pacific Northwest through the Great Lakes. As the aforementioned closed low moves onshore D4/Thursday, associated strengthening mid-level winds are expected over a deeply mixed lower troposphere across portions of southern NV and northwestern AZ, in addition to a tightening surface pressure gradient. Low critical probabilities have been included for this region, where coincident RH should again drop into the low teens to single digits. This closed low will begin to open and shift eastward over the Southwest D5/Friday, as a north Pacific mid to upper-level shortwave trough and jet traverse WA and OR. Long-term NWP global ensemble consensus has led to enough confidence of critical sustained winds and RH to introduce 70 percent probabilities along/near the AZ/NM border from around the Colorado Plateau and southward. Low probabilities of critical conditions were also included for far northern OR and WA along and east of the Cascades under a mid-level jet axis, where ERC percentiles will begin to approach or exceed 90-95. The low probabilities for D6/Saturday have been shifted westward over northwestern AZ, southwestern UT, and far southeastern NV under the nose of a secondary, more subtle mid-level westerly jet max, and where a tightening surface pressure gradient will likely reside. Further east across the rest of AZ and NM, surface wind speeds should diminish behind the exiting mid-level shortwave trough moving into the Central Plains, although minimum RH will still remain very low (single digits) there. Similar, and perhaps even more widespread, elevated to critical meteorological conditions are anticipated by D7/Sunday over central AZ and far western NM. In addition to increasing confidence of at least elevated dry, and windy conditions throughout the Southwest and Great Basin in the extended forecast, isolated thunderstorms may accompany increasing mid-level moisture atop well mixed sub-cloud layers. Erratic winds, and perhaps Isolated Dry Thunderstorms, cannot be ruled out. However, confidence in more precise locations of these phenomenon is too low to introduce probabilities for the time being. ..Barnes.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0510 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...Overview... Increasing elevated to critical fire spread conditions are expected across the Great Basin, Southwest, and portions of the Pacific Northwest over the next several days. Fuels will continue to generally become more receptive across these regions due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and hot, dry conditions. The most significant overlap of meteorological parameters and deteriorating fuel states is expected D5/Friday near the NM/AZ border. ...Synopsis... By the middle of the week, an upper-level ridge will remain over the southern and central Rockies, while a closed, cut-off low approaches southern CA. Further north across most of the northern CONUS, strong zonal mid to upper-level flow is expected from the Pacific Northwest through the Great Lakes. As the aforementioned closed low moves onshore D4/Thursday, associated strengthening mid-level winds are expected over a deeply mixed lower troposphere across portions of southern NV and northwestern AZ, in addition to a tightening surface pressure gradient. Low critical probabilities have been included for this region, where coincident RH should again drop into the low teens to single digits. This closed low will begin to open and shift eastward over the Southwest D5/Friday, as a north Pacific mid to upper-level shortwave trough and jet traverse WA and OR. Long-term NWP global ensemble consensus has led to enough confidence of critical sustained winds and RH to introduce 70 percent probabilities along/near the AZ/NM border from around the Colorado Plateau and southward. Low probabilities of critical conditions were also included for far northern OR and WA along and east of the Cascades under a mid-level jet axis, where ERC percentiles will begin to approach or exceed 90-95. The low probabilities for D6/Saturday have been shifted westward over northwestern AZ, southwestern UT, and far southeastern NV under the nose of a secondary, more subtle mid-level westerly jet max, and where a tightening surface pressure gradient will likely reside. Further east across the rest of AZ and NM, surface wind speeds should diminish behind the exiting mid-level shortwave trough moving into the Central Plains, although minimum RH will still remain very low (single digits) there. Similar, and perhaps even more widespread, elevated to critical meteorological conditions are anticipated by D7/Sunday over central AZ and far western NM. In addition to increasing confidence of at least elevated dry, and windy conditions throughout the Southwest and Great Basin in the extended forecast, isolated thunderstorms may accompany increasing mid-level moisture atop well mixed sub-cloud layers. Erratic winds, and perhaps Isolated Dry Thunderstorms, cannot be ruled out. However, confidence in more precise locations of these phenomenon is too low to introduce probabilities for the time being. ..Barnes.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0510 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...Overview... Increasing elevated to critical fire spread conditions are expected across the Great Basin, Southwest, and portions of the Pacific Northwest over the next several days. Fuels will continue to generally become more receptive across these regions due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and hot, dry conditions. The most significant overlap of meteorological parameters and deteriorating fuel states is expected D5/Friday near the NM/AZ border. ...Synopsis... By the middle of the week, an upper-level ridge will remain over the southern and central Rockies, while a closed, cut-off low approaches southern CA. Further north across most of the northern CONUS, strong zonal mid to upper-level flow is expected from the Pacific Northwest through the Great Lakes. As the aforementioned closed low moves onshore D4/Thursday, associated strengthening mid-level winds are expected over a deeply mixed lower troposphere across portions of southern NV and northwestern AZ, in addition to a tightening surface pressure gradient. Low critical probabilities have been included for this region, where coincident RH should again drop into the low teens to single digits. This closed low will begin to open and shift eastward over the Southwest D5/Friday, as a north Pacific mid to upper-level shortwave trough and jet traverse WA and OR. Long-term NWP global ensemble consensus has led to enough confidence of critical sustained winds and RH to introduce 70 percent probabilities along/near the AZ/NM border from around the Colorado Plateau and southward. Low probabilities of critical conditions were also included for far northern OR and WA along and east of the Cascades under a mid-level jet axis, where ERC percentiles will begin to approach or exceed 90-95. The low probabilities for D6/Saturday have been shifted westward over northwestern AZ, southwestern UT, and far southeastern NV under the nose of a secondary, more subtle mid-level westerly jet max, and where a tightening surface pressure gradient will likely reside. Further east across the rest of AZ and NM, surface wind speeds should diminish behind the exiting mid-level shortwave trough moving into the Central Plains, although minimum RH will still remain very low (single digits) there. Similar, and perhaps even more widespread, elevated to critical meteorological conditions are anticipated by D7/Sunday over central AZ and far western NM. In addition to increasing confidence of at least elevated dry, and windy conditions throughout the Southwest and Great Basin in the extended forecast, isolated thunderstorms may accompany increasing mid-level moisture atop well mixed sub-cloud layers. Erratic winds, and perhaps Isolated Dry Thunderstorms, cannot be ruled out. However, confidence in more precise locations of these phenomenon is too low to introduce probabilities for the time being. ..Barnes.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0510 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...Overview... Increasing elevated to critical fire spread conditions are expected across the Great Basin, Southwest, and portions of the Pacific Northwest over the next several days. Fuels will continue to generally become more receptive across these regions due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and hot, dry conditions. The most significant overlap of meteorological parameters and deteriorating fuel states is expected D5/Friday near the NM/AZ border. ...Synopsis... By the middle of the week, an upper-level ridge will remain over the southern and central Rockies, while a closed, cut-off low approaches southern CA. Further north across most of the northern CONUS, strong zonal mid to upper-level flow is expected from the Pacific Northwest through the Great Lakes. As the aforementioned closed low moves onshore D4/Thursday, associated strengthening mid-level winds are expected over a deeply mixed lower troposphere across portions of southern NV and northwestern AZ, in addition to a tightening surface pressure gradient. Low critical probabilities have been included for this region, where coincident RH should again drop into the low teens to single digits. This closed low will begin to open and shift eastward over the Southwest D5/Friday, as a north Pacific mid to upper-level shortwave trough and jet traverse WA and OR. Long-term NWP global ensemble consensus has led to enough confidence of critical sustained winds and RH to introduce 70 percent probabilities along/near the AZ/NM border from around the Colorado Plateau and southward. Low probabilities of critical conditions were also included for far northern OR and WA along and east of the Cascades under a mid-level jet axis, where ERC percentiles will begin to approach or exceed 90-95. The low probabilities for D6/Saturday have been shifted westward over northwestern AZ, southwestern UT, and far southeastern NV under the nose of a secondary, more subtle mid-level westerly jet max, and where a tightening surface pressure gradient will likely reside. Further east across the rest of AZ and NM, surface wind speeds should diminish behind the exiting mid-level shortwave trough moving into the Central Plains, although minimum RH will still remain very low (single digits) there. Similar, and perhaps even more widespread, elevated to critical meteorological conditions are anticipated by D7/Sunday over central AZ and far western NM. In addition to increasing confidence of at least elevated dry, and windy conditions throughout the Southwest and Great Basin in the extended forecast, isolated thunderstorms may accompany increasing mid-level moisture atop well mixed sub-cloud layers. Erratic winds, and perhaps Isolated Dry Thunderstorms, cannot be ruled out. However, confidence in more precise locations of these phenomenon is too low to introduce probabilities for the time being. ..Barnes.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0510 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...Overview... Increasing elevated to critical fire spread conditions are expected across the Great Basin, Southwest, and portions of the Pacific Northwest over the next several days. Fuels will continue to generally become more receptive across these regions due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and hot, dry conditions. The most significant overlap of meteorological parameters and deteriorating fuel states is expected D5/Friday near the NM/AZ border. ...Synopsis... By the middle of the week, an upper-level ridge will remain over the southern and central Rockies, while a closed, cut-off low approaches southern CA. Further north across most of the northern CONUS, strong zonal mid to upper-level flow is expected from the Pacific Northwest through the Great Lakes. As the aforementioned closed low moves onshore D4/Thursday, associated strengthening mid-level winds are expected over a deeply mixed lower troposphere across portions of southern NV and northwestern AZ, in addition to a tightening surface pressure gradient. Low critical probabilities have been included for this region, where coincident RH should again drop into the low teens to single digits. This closed low will begin to open and shift eastward over the Southwest D5/Friday, as a north Pacific mid to upper-level shortwave trough and jet traverse WA and OR. Long-term NWP global ensemble consensus has led to enough confidence of critical sustained winds and RH to introduce 70 percent probabilities along/near the AZ/NM border from around the Colorado Plateau and southward. Low probabilities of critical conditions were also included for far northern OR and WA along and east of the Cascades under a mid-level jet axis, where ERC percentiles will begin to approach or exceed 90-95. The low probabilities for D6/Saturday have been shifted westward over northwestern AZ, southwestern UT, and far southeastern NV under the nose of a secondary, more subtle mid-level westerly jet max, and where a tightening surface pressure gradient will likely reside. Further east across the rest of AZ and NM, surface wind speeds should diminish behind the exiting mid-level shortwave trough moving into the Central Plains, although minimum RH will still remain very low (single digits) there. Similar, and perhaps even more widespread, elevated to critical meteorological conditions are anticipated by D7/Sunday over central AZ and far western NM. In addition to increasing confidence of at least elevated dry, and windy conditions throughout the Southwest and Great Basin in the extended forecast, isolated thunderstorms may accompany increasing mid-level moisture atop well mixed sub-cloud layers. Erratic winds, and perhaps Isolated Dry Thunderstorms, cannot be ruled out. However, confidence in more precise locations of these phenomenon is too low to introduce probabilities for the time being. ..Barnes.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0510 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...Overview... Increasing elevated to critical fire spread conditions are expected across the Great Basin, Southwest, and portions of the Pacific Northwest over the next several days. Fuels will continue to generally become more receptive across these regions due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and hot, dry conditions. The most significant overlap of meteorological parameters and deteriorating fuel states is expected D5/Friday near the NM/AZ border. ...Synopsis... By the middle of the week, an upper-level ridge will remain over the southern and central Rockies, while a closed, cut-off low approaches southern CA. Further north across most of the northern CONUS, strong zonal mid to upper-level flow is expected from the Pacific Northwest through the Great Lakes. As the aforementioned closed low moves onshore D4/Thursday, associated strengthening mid-level winds are expected over a deeply mixed lower troposphere across portions of southern NV and northwestern AZ, in addition to a tightening surface pressure gradient. Low critical probabilities have been included for this region, where coincident RH should again drop into the low teens to single digits. This closed low will begin to open and shift eastward over the Southwest D5/Friday, as a north Pacific mid to upper-level shortwave trough and jet traverse WA and OR. Long-term NWP global ensemble consensus has led to enough confidence of critical sustained winds and RH to introduce 70 percent probabilities along/near the AZ/NM border from around the Colorado Plateau and southward. Low probabilities of critical conditions were also included for far northern OR and WA along and east of the Cascades under a mid-level jet axis, where ERC percentiles will begin to approach or exceed 90-95. The low probabilities for D6/Saturday have been shifted westward over northwestern AZ, southwestern UT, and far southeastern NV under the nose of a secondary, more subtle mid-level westerly jet max, and where a tightening surface pressure gradient will likely reside. Further east across the rest of AZ and NM, surface wind speeds should diminish behind the exiting mid-level shortwave trough moving into the Central Plains, although minimum RH will still remain very low (single digits) there. Similar, and perhaps even more widespread, elevated to critical meteorological conditions are anticipated by D7/Sunday over central AZ and far western NM. In addition to increasing confidence of at least elevated dry, and windy conditions throughout the Southwest and Great Basin in the extended forecast, isolated thunderstorms may accompany increasing mid-level moisture atop well mixed sub-cloud layers. Erratic winds, and perhaps Isolated Dry Thunderstorms, cannot be ruled out. However, confidence in more precise locations of these phenomenon is too low to introduce probabilities for the time being. ..Barnes.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0510 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...Overview... Increasing elevated to critical fire spread conditions are expected across the Great Basin, Southwest, and portions of the Pacific Northwest over the next several days. Fuels will continue to generally become more receptive across these regions due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and hot, dry conditions. The most significant overlap of meteorological parameters and deteriorating fuel states is expected D5/Friday near the NM/AZ border. ...Synopsis... By the middle of the week, an upper-level ridge will remain over the southern and central Rockies, while a closed, cut-off low approaches southern CA. Further north across most of the northern CONUS, strong zonal mid to upper-level flow is expected from the Pacific Northwest through the Great Lakes. As the aforementioned closed low moves onshore D4/Thursday, associated strengthening mid-level winds are expected over a deeply mixed lower troposphere across portions of southern NV and northwestern AZ, in addition to a tightening surface pressure gradient. Low critical probabilities have been included for this region, where coincident RH should again drop into the low teens to single digits. This closed low will begin to open and shift eastward over the Southwest D5/Friday, as a north Pacific mid to upper-level shortwave trough and jet traverse WA and OR. Long-term NWP global ensemble consensus has led to enough confidence of critical sustained winds and RH to introduce 70 percent probabilities along/near the AZ/NM border from around the Colorado Plateau and southward. Low probabilities of critical conditions were also included for far northern OR and WA along and east of the Cascades under a mid-level jet axis, where ERC percentiles will begin to approach or exceed 90-95. The low probabilities for D6/Saturday have been shifted westward over northwestern AZ, southwestern UT, and far southeastern NV under the nose of a secondary, more subtle mid-level westerly jet max, and where a tightening surface pressure gradient will likely reside. Further east across the rest of AZ and NM, surface wind speeds should diminish behind the exiting mid-level shortwave trough moving into the Central Plains, although minimum RH will still remain very low (single digits) there. Similar, and perhaps even more widespread, elevated to critical meteorological conditions are anticipated by D7/Sunday over central AZ and far western NM. In addition to increasing confidence of at least elevated dry, and windy conditions throughout the Southwest and Great Basin in the extended forecast, isolated thunderstorms may accompany increasing mid-level moisture atop well mixed sub-cloud layers. Erratic winds, and perhaps Isolated Dry Thunderstorms, cannot be ruled out. However, confidence in more precise locations of these phenomenon is too low to introduce probabilities for the time being. ..Barnes.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0510 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...Overview... Increasing elevated to critical fire spread conditions are expected across the Great Basin, Southwest, and portions of the Pacific Northwest over the next several days. Fuels will continue to generally become more receptive across these regions due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and hot, dry conditions. The most significant overlap of meteorological parameters and deteriorating fuel states is expected D5/Friday near the NM/AZ border. ...Synopsis... By the middle of the week, an upper-level ridge will remain over the southern and central Rockies, while a closed, cut-off low approaches southern CA. Further north across most of the northern CONUS, strong zonal mid to upper-level flow is expected from the Pacific Northwest through the Great Lakes. As the aforementioned closed low moves onshore D4/Thursday, associated strengthening mid-level winds are expected over a deeply mixed lower troposphere across portions of southern NV and northwestern AZ, in addition to a tightening surface pressure gradient. Low critical probabilities have been included for this region, where coincident RH should again drop into the low teens to single digits. This closed low will begin to open and shift eastward over the Southwest D5/Friday, as a north Pacific mid to upper-level shortwave trough and jet traverse WA and OR. Long-term NWP global ensemble consensus has led to enough confidence of critical sustained winds and RH to introduce 70 percent probabilities along/near the AZ/NM border from around the Colorado Plateau and southward. Low probabilities of critical conditions were also included for far northern OR and WA along and east of the Cascades under a mid-level jet axis, where ERC percentiles will begin to approach or exceed 90-95. The low probabilities for D6/Saturday have been shifted westward over northwestern AZ, southwestern UT, and far southeastern NV under the nose of a secondary, more subtle mid-level westerly jet max, and where a tightening surface pressure gradient will likely reside. Further east across the rest of AZ and NM, surface wind speeds should diminish behind the exiting mid-level shortwave trough moving into the Central Plains, although minimum RH will still remain very low (single digits) there. Similar, and perhaps even more widespread, elevated to critical meteorological conditions are anticipated by D7/Sunday over central AZ and far western NM. In addition to increasing confidence of at least elevated dry, and windy conditions throughout the Southwest and Great Basin in the extended forecast, isolated thunderstorms may accompany increasing mid-level moisture atop well mixed sub-cloud layers. Erratic winds, and perhaps Isolated Dry Thunderstorms, cannot be ruled out. However, confidence in more precise locations of these phenomenon is too low to introduce probabilities for the time being. ..Barnes.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0404 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 404 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW 4BQ TO 30 SE 4BQ TO 40 SW 2WX TO 20 SSE 2WX TO 35 E 2WX TO 30 N Y22. ..LYONS..06/10/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...BIS...CYS...LBF...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 404 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC007-013-033-045-049-069-105-123-157-161-165-102240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE DAWES DEUEL GARDEN KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN SIOUX SDC007-019-033-047-055-071-081-093-102-103-105-137-102240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT BUTTE CUSTER FALL RIVER HAAKON JACKSON LAWRENCE MEADE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON PERKINS ZIEBACH WYC009-011-015-021-027-031-045-102240- WY Read more

MD 1228 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO TO WESTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1228 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Areas affected...Southeast New Mexico to western Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 101916Z - 102145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is underway across southeast New Mexico and far western Texas. Initially discrete cells will likely pose a severe hail/wind risk across southeast New Mexico before gradual upscale growth later this afternoon/evening into western Texas. Convective coverage remains uncertain, but trends will be monitored for the need for watch issuance across portions of west Texas. DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar imagery show early thunderstorm development across far southeast NM into far western TX along a weak/diffuse low-level confluence axis, as well as within upslope flow regime on the eastern side of the Sacramento Mountains. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated through late afternoon as temperatures climb into the low/mid 80s and MLCIN continues to wane. Initial cells will likely be isolated, and may remain fairly weak given more marginal moisture/buoyancy within this initiation zone. However, 30-knot mid-level flow on the southern fringe of a weak mid-level vorticity maximum is elongating hodographs through 5 to 6 km AGL, which may support storm organization with an attendant severe hail/wind risk. Thunderstorms should intensify as they migrate downstream into the southern Permian Basin and northern Edwards Plateau where higher quality low-level moisture is noted in 19 UTC surface observations (dewpoints in the low to mid 60s). Discrete cells that can meander into this air mass may pose a more robust hail threat as they fully realize more substantial effective bulk shear (between 35-40 knots). However, given a somewhat deep (around 2 km), well-mixed boundary layer and weak low-level storm relative winds, storms may have a high probability of becoming outflow dominant within the first couple of hours. Upscale growth into a more organized cluster/line appears possible, but may be conditional on the coverage of initial cells (which remains uncertain). If this scenario occurs, a more focused wind threat may materialize downstream across parts of the Permian Basin/Edwards Plateau later this evening. Trends will continue to be monitored for the need for watch issuance as storm coverage becomes more apparent. ..Moore/Gleason.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 31780282 31990321 32200345 32530346 32940332 33250321 33660289 33750270 33740229 33640196 33540176 33350136 32680012 32240005 31750012 31360040 31000095 30880131 31000171 31780282 Read more

WW 0404 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 404 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..06/10/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...BIS...CYS...LBF...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 404 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-102240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER NEC007-013-033-045-049-069-105-123-157-161-165-102240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE DAWES DEUEL GARDEN KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN SIOUX NDC001-011-102240- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BOWMAN Read more

WW 0403 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 403 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE MCN TO 45 SW AGS. ..LYONS..06/10/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...CHS...CAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 403 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC001-005-029-031-033-043-051-069-091-103-107-109-161-165-167- 175-179-183-191-209-251-267-271-279-283-305-309-102140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPLING BACON BRYAN BULLOCH BURKE CANDLER CHATHAM COFFEE DODGE EFFINGHAM EMANUEL EVANS JEFF DAVIS JENKINS JOHNSON LAURENS LIBERTY LONG MCINTOSH MONTGOMERY SCREVEN TATTNALL TELFAIR TOOMBS TREUTLEN WAYNE WHEELER SCC005-009-011-013-015-019-029-035-049-053-075-102140- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLENDALE BAMBERG BARNWELL BEAUFORT BERKELEY CHARLESTON COLLETON DORCHESTER HAMPTON Read more

WW 0403 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 403 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE MCN TO 45 SW AGS. ..LYONS..06/10/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...CHS...CAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 403 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC001-005-029-031-033-043-051-069-091-103-107-109-161-165-167- 175-179-183-191-209-251-267-271-279-283-305-309-102140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPLING BACON BRYAN BULLOCH BURKE CANDLER CHATHAM COFFEE DODGE EFFINGHAM EMANUEL EVANS JEFF DAVIS JENKINS JOHNSON LAURENS LIBERTY LONG MCINTOSH MONTGOMERY SCREVEN TATTNALL TELFAIR TOOMBS TREUTLEN WAYNE WHEELER SCC005-009-011-013-015-019-029-035-049-053-075-102140- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLENDALE BAMBERG BARNWELL BEAUFORT BERKELEY CHARLESTON COLLETON DORCHESTER HAMPTON Read more

WW 0403 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 403 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE MCN TO 45 SW AGS. ..LYONS..06/10/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...CHS...CAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 403 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC001-005-029-031-033-043-051-069-091-103-107-109-161-165-167- 175-179-183-191-209-251-267-271-279-283-305-309-102140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPLING BACON BRYAN BULLOCH BURKE CANDLER CHATHAM COFFEE DODGE EFFINGHAM EMANUEL EVANS JEFF DAVIS JENKINS JOHNSON LAURENS LIBERTY LONG MCINTOSH MONTGOMERY SCREVEN TATTNALL TELFAIR TOOMBS TREUTLEN WAYNE WHEELER SCC005-009-011-013-015-019-029-035-049-053-075-102140- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLENDALE BAMBERG BARNWELL BEAUFORT BERKELEY CHARLESTON COLLETON DORCHESTER HAMPTON Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHEAST GA/COASTAL SC...AND WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts should continue across parts of the northern/central High Plains into early evening. Other strong to severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds will remain possible across portions of the Southeast States and west Texas through this evening. ...20Z Update... Prior forecast reasoning remains largely on-track across the CONUS. Primary categorical change has been to sever parts of the southern High Plains level 1-MRGL risk area to the north/west of the mid-level impulse drifting east-southeast. Here, abundant cloudiness/rain has limited afternoon destabilization. In conjunction with weak deep-layer shear, the potential for an organized severe storm appears negligible. Please see MCD 1228 for in-depth discussion on the severe potential ahead of this impulse in the Permian Basin and TX South Plains. Minor adjustments have also been made across the northern/central High Plains area based on latest convective and observational trends. No changes have been made to the severe threat area in the Southeast States. ..Grams.. 06/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024/ ...Northern/Central High Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough noted on water vapor satellite imagery over the northern Rockies will continue to advance eastward today over the northern High Plains. A related weak surface low over eastern MT should consolidate and shift into Saskatchewan through early afternoon, while a separate surface low develops over the central High Plains. A cold front is progged to move eastward through the afternoon and early evening over the northern High Plains. Low-level moisture will remain fairly limited ahead of the front, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s. But, steep mid-level lapse rates and daytime heating will aid in the development of weak to locally moderate instability in a narrow corridor by mid afternoon. Although mid-level flow is not expected to be overly strong, sufficient veering/strengthening of the flow with height through mid levels will still support generally 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to develop along or just ahead of the front in the 18-20Z time frame. Initial supercells should pose a threat for mainly severe hail, but quick upscale growth into one or more small clusters will probably lead to a greater severe/damaging wind risk as convection moves quickly eastward. A tornado or two also appears possible. The relatively narrow warm sector suggests that thunderstorm intensity should decrease through the early evening with eastward extent across the northern/central High Plains. ...Southeast... Latest surface observations show a weak cold front situated across southern AL/GA into coastal SC. The presence of a moist low-level airmass and robust daytime heating along/south of this boundary will likely promote moderate to locally strong instability developing by early afternoon. Weak low-level convergence along the front, coupled with modest ascent on the southern fringe of an upper trough over the eastern CONUS, should support robust convective development by 18-20Z along/near the front in south/central GA and coastal SC. Weak westerly low-level flow is forecast to gradually increase with height through mid levels, which is expected to foster sufficient deep-layer shear to support supercells. Large hail should be a concern with this initially discrete activity, and some guidance shows potential for splitting supercells given a relatively long/straight westerly hodograph aloft. Occasional damaging winds will also be a concern with any small bowing clusters that can develop and spread eastward towards the coast through early evening. Weaker low-level convergence with southward extent into southern AL and the FL Panhandle suggests that overall thunderstorm coverage will remain more isolated across these areas. ...Southern Plains... A convectively augmented vorticity maximum/shortwave trough is evident late this morning over NM and west TX. An MCV is also noted in recent radar imagery across parts of northwest TX into the TX Panhandle. A surface cold front is in place over the southern High Plains. Although convective evolution remains somewhat uncertain later today, scattered thunderstorms will probably develop on the southern flank of the shortwave trough along and southwest of the front, and where better daytime heating can occur. Mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear should be a little stronger compared to yesterday, mainly owing to the influence of the MCV and mid-level shortwave trough. Latest high-resolution guidance continues to variability in whether an MCS will develop and become organized across west TX later today. Severe/damaging winds may occur if this scenario is realized, along with some hail with any isolated supercells that can develop. Read more