Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes will be possible across parts of the Upper Midwest on Wednesday. The probable time frame for the most intense storms should be centered on late afternoon to early evening. ...Upper Midwest... A relatively complex convective scenario should unfold Wednesday with multiple rounds of severe potential anticipated. A mesoscale corridor of level 3-ENH risk may be warranted in later cycles, likely driven by greater hail probabilities, if spatial confidence increases. A fast largely zonal upper jet, initially along the international border over the Northwest, will spread into ND and northern MN by early Thursday. This will be coincident with a shortwave trough moving from the Canadian Rockies to the southern Prairie Provinces. A surface cyclone should track from southeast SK to along the MN/ON border by Wednesday evening. In advance of this wave, pronounced low-level warm theta-e advection will occur from the Great Plains amid an elevated mixed layer shifting east from the Dakotas and central High Plains. At least isolated elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z along the periphery of the EML, centered on eastern SD into southwest MN. Consensus of guidance suggests this activity should persist into the diurnal heating cycle, centered on southern MN with a threat for isolated severe hail. Some of this activity may transition to surface-based character by midday to early afternoon with potential for an isolated strong wind threat as well. The spatial evolution of this early-day activity will likely modulate the overall threat, especially with northeast extent into western WI, where surface-based destabilization may be limited. The primary mid to late afternoon scenario should be focused ahead of the impinging cold front/surface trough in northwest MN to eastern SD. A confined plume of moderately large buoyancy should develop by peak heating with MLCAPE reaching 2000-3000 J/kg. The southwesterly low-level wind profile coupled with gradual veering to west-northwesterly (and strengthening) upper-level winds will favor hodograph elongation. Discrete supercells may tend to be more favored across northern MN initially before clustering into the evening. A messier convective mode is anticipated with southern extent, where residual outflow from early-day storms will likely focus regenerative convection. Tornado potential should be mesoscale-focused in this regime with enhanced low-level SRH near the trailing outflow, amid a more deeply mixed boundary layer to the west/south. This scenario should include embedded supercells within a southeast-sagging cluster into the evening as low-level winds become increasingly veered over IA. With greater buoyancy/instability to the west, the western portion of an evening cluster/MCS should contain the primary large hail/severe wind threat before convection wanes overnight. ..Grams.. 06/11/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...Update... Increasing mid-level flow is expected over the Pacific Northwest this afternoon, while surface pressure falls accompany a mid to upper-level shortwave trough over British Columbia. The resulting pressure gradient, and momentum transfer from aloft, will yield sustained westerly drying downslope winds around 20-25 mph with gusts near 40 mph east of the Cascades. Minimum RH will drop to 25-30 percent late this afternoon. Although widespread fuels appear marginal, a couple of wildfires were already reported yesterday across this region, and more receptive fuels are likely present near and north of the OR/WA border. Therefore, an Elevated area has been included for central WA and far northern OR today. For the rest of the CONUS, the forecast remains valid. Please see the previous discussion from below. ..Barnes.. 06/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong westerly midlevel flow will overspread the Pacific Northwest, while a related cold front moves eastward across the region. This will favor downslope warming/drying and a tightening surface pressure gradient east of the Cascades. As a result, locally dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of eastern WA and OR, and locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, marginal fuels limit confidence in an appreciable fire-weather threat -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time. Over the Southwest, warm/dry conditions will continue beneath a midlevel ridge. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible (given dry fuels across the region), a modest surface pressure gradient and fairly weak surface winds should limit the overall fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...Update... Increasing mid-level flow is expected over the Pacific Northwest this afternoon, while surface pressure falls accompany a mid to upper-level shortwave trough over British Columbia. The resulting pressure gradient, and momentum transfer from aloft, will yield sustained westerly drying downslope winds around 20-25 mph with gusts near 40 mph east of the Cascades. Minimum RH will drop to 25-30 percent late this afternoon. Although widespread fuels appear marginal, a couple of wildfires were already reported yesterday across this region, and more receptive fuels are likely present near and north of the OR/WA border. Therefore, an Elevated area has been included for central WA and far northern OR today. For the rest of the CONUS, the forecast remains valid. Please see the previous discussion from below. ..Barnes.. 06/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong westerly midlevel flow will overspread the Pacific Northwest, while a related cold front moves eastward across the region. This will favor downslope warming/drying and a tightening surface pressure gradient east of the Cascades. As a result, locally dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of eastern WA and OR, and locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, marginal fuels limit confidence in an appreciable fire-weather threat -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time. Over the Southwest, warm/dry conditions will continue beneath a midlevel ridge. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible (given dry fuels across the region), a modest surface pressure gradient and fairly weak surface winds should limit the overall fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...Update... Increasing mid-level flow is expected over the Pacific Northwest this afternoon, while surface pressure falls accompany a mid to upper-level shortwave trough over British Columbia. The resulting pressure gradient, and momentum transfer from aloft, will yield sustained westerly drying downslope winds around 20-25 mph with gusts near 40 mph east of the Cascades. Minimum RH will drop to 25-30 percent late this afternoon. Although widespread fuels appear marginal, a couple of wildfires were already reported yesterday across this region, and more receptive fuels are likely present near and north of the OR/WA border. Therefore, an Elevated area has been included for central WA and far northern OR today. For the rest of the CONUS, the forecast remains valid. Please see the previous discussion from below. ..Barnes.. 06/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong westerly midlevel flow will overspread the Pacific Northwest, while a related cold front moves eastward across the region. This will favor downslope warming/drying and a tightening surface pressure gradient east of the Cascades. As a result, locally dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of eastern WA and OR, and locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, marginal fuels limit confidence in an appreciable fire-weather threat -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time. Over the Southwest, warm/dry conditions will continue beneath a midlevel ridge. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible (given dry fuels across the region), a modest surface pressure gradient and fairly weak surface winds should limit the overall fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...Update... Increasing mid-level flow is expected over the Pacific Northwest this afternoon, while surface pressure falls accompany a mid to upper-level shortwave trough over British Columbia. The resulting pressure gradient, and momentum transfer from aloft, will yield sustained westerly drying downslope winds around 20-25 mph with gusts near 40 mph east of the Cascades. Minimum RH will drop to 25-30 percent late this afternoon. Although widespread fuels appear marginal, a couple of wildfires were already reported yesterday across this region, and more receptive fuels are likely present near and north of the OR/WA border. Therefore, an Elevated area has been included for central WA and far northern OR today. For the rest of the CONUS, the forecast remains valid. Please see the previous discussion from below. ..Barnes.. 06/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong westerly midlevel flow will overspread the Pacific Northwest, while a related cold front moves eastward across the region. This will favor downslope warming/drying and a tightening surface pressure gradient east of the Cascades. As a result, locally dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of eastern WA and OR, and locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, marginal fuels limit confidence in an appreciable fire-weather threat -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time. Over the Southwest, warm/dry conditions will continue beneath a midlevel ridge. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible (given dry fuels across the region), a modest surface pressure gradient and fairly weak surface winds should limit the overall fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...Update... Increasing mid-level flow is expected over the Pacific Northwest this afternoon, while surface pressure falls accompany a mid to upper-level shortwave trough over British Columbia. The resulting pressure gradient, and momentum transfer from aloft, will yield sustained westerly drying downslope winds around 20-25 mph with gusts near 40 mph east of the Cascades. Minimum RH will drop to 25-30 percent late this afternoon. Although widespread fuels appear marginal, a couple of wildfires were already reported yesterday across this region, and more receptive fuels are likely present near and north of the OR/WA border. Therefore, an Elevated area has been included for central WA and far northern OR today. For the rest of the CONUS, the forecast remains valid. Please see the previous discussion from below. ..Barnes.. 06/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong westerly midlevel flow will overspread the Pacific Northwest, while a related cold front moves eastward across the region. This will favor downslope warming/drying and a tightening surface pressure gradient east of the Cascades. As a result, locally dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of eastern WA and OR, and locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, marginal fuels limit confidence in an appreciable fire-weather threat -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time. Over the Southwest, warm/dry conditions will continue beneath a midlevel ridge. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible (given dry fuels across the region), a modest surface pressure gradient and fairly weak surface winds should limit the overall fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...Update... Increasing mid-level flow is expected over the Pacific Northwest this afternoon, while surface pressure falls accompany a mid to upper-level shortwave trough over British Columbia. The resulting pressure gradient, and momentum transfer from aloft, will yield sustained westerly drying downslope winds around 20-25 mph with gusts near 40 mph east of the Cascades. Minimum RH will drop to 25-30 percent late this afternoon. Although widespread fuels appear marginal, a couple of wildfires were already reported yesterday across this region, and more receptive fuels are likely present near and north of the OR/WA border. Therefore, an Elevated area has been included for central WA and far northern OR today. For the rest of the CONUS, the forecast remains valid. Please see the previous discussion from below. ..Barnes.. 06/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong westerly midlevel flow will overspread the Pacific Northwest, while a related cold front moves eastward across the region. This will favor downslope warming/drying and a tightening surface pressure gradient east of the Cascades. As a result, locally dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of eastern WA and OR, and locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, marginal fuels limit confidence in an appreciable fire-weather threat -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time. Over the Southwest, warm/dry conditions will continue beneath a midlevel ridge. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible (given dry fuels across the region), a modest surface pressure gradient and fairly weak surface winds should limit the overall fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...Update... Increasing mid-level flow is expected over the Pacific Northwest this afternoon, while surface pressure falls accompany a mid to upper-level shortwave trough over British Columbia. The resulting pressure gradient, and momentum transfer from aloft, will yield sustained westerly drying downslope winds around 20-25 mph with gusts near 40 mph east of the Cascades. Minimum RH will drop to 25-30 percent late this afternoon. Although widespread fuels appear marginal, a couple of wildfires were already reported yesterday across this region, and more receptive fuels are likely present near and north of the OR/WA border. Therefore, an Elevated area has been included for central WA and far northern OR today. For the rest of the CONUS, the forecast remains valid. Please see the previous discussion from below. ..Barnes.. 06/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong westerly midlevel flow will overspread the Pacific Northwest, while a related cold front moves eastward across the region. This will favor downslope warming/drying and a tightening surface pressure gradient east of the Cascades. As a result, locally dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of eastern WA and OR, and locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, marginal fuels limit confidence in an appreciable fire-weather threat -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time. Over the Southwest, warm/dry conditions will continue beneath a midlevel ridge. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible (given dry fuels across the region), a modest surface pressure gradient and fairly weak surface winds should limit the overall fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...Update... Increasing mid-level flow is expected over the Pacific Northwest this afternoon, while surface pressure falls accompany a mid to upper-level shortwave trough over British Columbia. The resulting pressure gradient, and momentum transfer from aloft, will yield sustained westerly drying downslope winds around 20-25 mph with gusts near 40 mph east of the Cascades. Minimum RH will drop to 25-30 percent late this afternoon. Although widespread fuels appear marginal, a couple of wildfires were already reported yesterday across this region, and more receptive fuels are likely present near and north of the OR/WA border. Therefore, an Elevated area has been included for central WA and far northern OR today. For the rest of the CONUS, the forecast remains valid. Please see the previous discussion from below. ..Barnes.. 06/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong westerly midlevel flow will overspread the Pacific Northwest, while a related cold front moves eastward across the region. This will favor downslope warming/drying and a tightening surface pressure gradient east of the Cascades. As a result, locally dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of eastern WA and OR, and locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, marginal fuels limit confidence in an appreciable fire-weather threat -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time. Over the Southwest, warm/dry conditions will continue beneath a midlevel ridge. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible (given dry fuels across the region), a modest surface pressure gradient and fairly weak surface winds should limit the overall fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...Update... Increasing mid-level flow is expected over the Pacific Northwest this afternoon, while surface pressure falls accompany a mid to upper-level shortwave trough over British Columbia. The resulting pressure gradient, and momentum transfer from aloft, will yield sustained westerly drying downslope winds around 20-25 mph with gusts near 40 mph east of the Cascades. Minimum RH will drop to 25-30 percent late this afternoon. Although widespread fuels appear marginal, a couple of wildfires were already reported yesterday across this region, and more receptive fuels are likely present near and north of the OR/WA border. Therefore, an Elevated area has been included for central WA and far northern OR today. For the rest of the CONUS, the forecast remains valid. Please see the previous discussion from below. ..Barnes.. 06/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong westerly midlevel flow will overspread the Pacific Northwest, while a related cold front moves eastward across the region. This will favor downslope warming/drying and a tightening surface pressure gradient east of the Cascades. As a result, locally dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of eastern WA and OR, and locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, marginal fuels limit confidence in an appreciable fire-weather threat -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time. Over the Southwest, warm/dry conditions will continue beneath a midlevel ridge. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible (given dry fuels across the region), a modest surface pressure gradient and fairly weak surface winds should limit the overall fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of Texas centered on the Edwards Plateau. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. ...West Central TX... Late morning visible/radar shows an MCS over north TX. This activity is associated with a weak upper low and related low-level warm advection. An outflow boundary along the southern flank of this MCS will likely be the focus for afternoon thunderstorm development in a moist and moderately unstable airmass over central portions of TX. Model guidance indicates a small cluster of storms will eventually evolve towards the early evening. Upscale growth into a linear cluster may focus the severe-wind risk (60-70 mph) mainly this evening as this activity moves south-southeast within an environment of steep 0-3 km lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km) on the northwest rim of richer low-level moisture. ...CO/NM... Scattered high-based thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon over the Sangre de Cristos and adjacent High Plains. These storms will be in a deeply mixed air mass, capable of locally gusty winds and hail for a few hours before weakening during the evening. ...Upper MS Valley... A surface cold front will sweep eastward across the upper MS Valley this afternoon as an upper trough currently over the Dakotas approaches the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to form along/ahead of the front during the afternoon. The stronger storms may be capable of a localized hail/wind risk, but these storms will likely diminish by the early to mid evening. ...Eastern NC... A mid-level trough over the East Coast will gradually pivot east into the western Atlantic by late tonight. Weak large-scale ascent atop an adequately moist/moderately unstable, post frontal airmass may lead to a stronger storm or two developing this afternoon into the early evening. A localized risk for a strong/damaging gust cannot be ruled out before this activity weakens by sunset. ..Smith/Moore.. 06/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of Texas centered on the Edwards Plateau. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. ...West Central TX... Late morning visible/radar shows an MCS over north TX. This activity is associated with a weak upper low and related low-level warm advection. An outflow boundary along the southern flank of this MCS will likely be the focus for afternoon thunderstorm development in a moist and moderately unstable airmass over central portions of TX. Model guidance indicates a small cluster of storms will eventually evolve towards the early evening. Upscale growth into a linear cluster may focus the severe-wind risk (60-70 mph) mainly this evening as this activity moves south-southeast within an environment of steep 0-3 km lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km) on the northwest rim of richer low-level moisture. ...CO/NM... Scattered high-based thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon over the Sangre de Cristos and adjacent High Plains. These storms will be in a deeply mixed air mass, capable of locally gusty winds and hail for a few hours before weakening during the evening. ...Upper MS Valley... A surface cold front will sweep eastward across the upper MS Valley this afternoon as an upper trough currently over the Dakotas approaches the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to form along/ahead of the front during the afternoon. The stronger storms may be capable of a localized hail/wind risk, but these storms will likely diminish by the early to mid evening. ...Eastern NC... A mid-level trough over the East Coast will gradually pivot east into the western Atlantic by late tonight. Weak large-scale ascent atop an adequately moist/moderately unstable, post frontal airmass may lead to a stronger storm or two developing this afternoon into the early evening. A localized risk for a strong/damaging gust cannot be ruled out before this activity weakens by sunset. ..Smith/Moore.. 06/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of Texas centered on the Edwards Plateau. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. ...West Central TX... Late morning visible/radar shows an MCS over north TX. This activity is associated with a weak upper low and related low-level warm advection. An outflow boundary along the southern flank of this MCS will likely be the focus for afternoon thunderstorm development in a moist and moderately unstable airmass over central portions of TX. Model guidance indicates a small cluster of storms will eventually evolve towards the early evening. Upscale growth into a linear cluster may focus the severe-wind risk (60-70 mph) mainly this evening as this activity moves south-southeast within an environment of steep 0-3 km lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km) on the northwest rim of richer low-level moisture. ...CO/NM... Scattered high-based thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon over the Sangre de Cristos and adjacent High Plains. These storms will be in a deeply mixed air mass, capable of locally gusty winds and hail for a few hours before weakening during the evening. ...Upper MS Valley... A surface cold front will sweep eastward across the upper MS Valley this afternoon as an upper trough currently over the Dakotas approaches the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to form along/ahead of the front during the afternoon. The stronger storms may be capable of a localized hail/wind risk, but these storms will likely diminish by the early to mid evening. ...Eastern NC... A mid-level trough over the East Coast will gradually pivot east into the western Atlantic by late tonight. Weak large-scale ascent atop an adequately moist/moderately unstable, post frontal airmass may lead to a stronger storm or two developing this afternoon into the early evening. A localized risk for a strong/damaging gust cannot be ruled out before this activity weakens by sunset. ..Smith/Moore.. 06/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of Texas centered on the Edwards Plateau. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. ...West Central TX... Late morning visible/radar shows an MCS over north TX. This activity is associated with a weak upper low and related low-level warm advection. An outflow boundary along the southern flank of this MCS will likely be the focus for afternoon thunderstorm development in a moist and moderately unstable airmass over central portions of TX. Model guidance indicates a small cluster of storms will eventually evolve towards the early evening. Upscale growth into a linear cluster may focus the severe-wind risk (60-70 mph) mainly this evening as this activity moves south-southeast within an environment of steep 0-3 km lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km) on the northwest rim of richer low-level moisture. ...CO/NM... Scattered high-based thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon over the Sangre de Cristos and adjacent High Plains. These storms will be in a deeply mixed air mass, capable of locally gusty winds and hail for a few hours before weakening during the evening. ...Upper MS Valley... A surface cold front will sweep eastward across the upper MS Valley this afternoon as an upper trough currently over the Dakotas approaches the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to form along/ahead of the front during the afternoon. The stronger storms may be capable of a localized hail/wind risk, but these storms will likely diminish by the early to mid evening. ...Eastern NC... A mid-level trough over the East Coast will gradually pivot east into the western Atlantic by late tonight. Weak large-scale ascent atop an adequately moist/moderately unstable, post frontal airmass may lead to a stronger storm or two developing this afternoon into the early evening. A localized risk for a strong/damaging gust cannot be ruled out before this activity weakens by sunset. ..Smith/Moore.. 06/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of Texas centered on the Edwards Plateau. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. ...West Central TX... Late morning visible/radar shows an MCS over north TX. This activity is associated with a weak upper low and related low-level warm advection. An outflow boundary along the southern flank of this MCS will likely be the focus for afternoon thunderstorm development in a moist and moderately unstable airmass over central portions of TX. Model guidance indicates a small cluster of storms will eventually evolve towards the early evening. Upscale growth into a linear cluster may focus the severe-wind risk (60-70 mph) mainly this evening as this activity moves south-southeast within an environment of steep 0-3 km lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km) on the northwest rim of richer low-level moisture. ...CO/NM... Scattered high-based thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon over the Sangre de Cristos and adjacent High Plains. These storms will be in a deeply mixed air mass, capable of locally gusty winds and hail for a few hours before weakening during the evening. ...Upper MS Valley... A surface cold front will sweep eastward across the upper MS Valley this afternoon as an upper trough currently over the Dakotas approaches the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to form along/ahead of the front during the afternoon. The stronger storms may be capable of a localized hail/wind risk, but these storms will likely diminish by the early to mid evening. ...Eastern NC... A mid-level trough over the East Coast will gradually pivot east into the western Atlantic by late tonight. Weak large-scale ascent atop an adequately moist/moderately unstable, post frontal airmass may lead to a stronger storm or two developing this afternoon into the early evening. A localized risk for a strong/damaging gust cannot be ruled out before this activity weakens by sunset. ..Smith/Moore.. 06/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of Texas centered on the Edwards Plateau. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. ...West Central TX... Late morning visible/radar shows an MCS over north TX. This activity is associated with a weak upper low and related low-level warm advection. An outflow boundary along the southern flank of this MCS will likely be the focus for afternoon thunderstorm development in a moist and moderately unstable airmass over central portions of TX. Model guidance indicates a small cluster of storms will eventually evolve towards the early evening. Upscale growth into a linear cluster may focus the severe-wind risk (60-70 mph) mainly this evening as this activity moves south-southeast within an environment of steep 0-3 km lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km) on the northwest rim of richer low-level moisture. ...CO/NM... Scattered high-based thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon over the Sangre de Cristos and adjacent High Plains. These storms will be in a deeply mixed air mass, capable of locally gusty winds and hail for a few hours before weakening during the evening. ...Upper MS Valley... A surface cold front will sweep eastward across the upper MS Valley this afternoon as an upper trough currently over the Dakotas approaches the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to form along/ahead of the front during the afternoon. The stronger storms may be capable of a localized hail/wind risk, but these storms will likely diminish by the early to mid evening. ...Eastern NC... A mid-level trough over the East Coast will gradually pivot east into the western Atlantic by late tonight. Weak large-scale ascent atop an adequately moist/moderately unstable, post frontal airmass may lead to a stronger storm or two developing this afternoon into the early evening. A localized risk for a strong/damaging gust cannot be ruled out before this activity weakens by sunset. ..Smith/Moore.. 06/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of Texas centered on the Edwards Plateau. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. ...West Central TX... Late morning visible/radar shows an MCS over north TX. This activity is associated with a weak upper low and related low-level warm advection. An outflow boundary along the southern flank of this MCS will likely be the focus for afternoon thunderstorm development in a moist and moderately unstable airmass over central portions of TX. Model guidance indicates a small cluster of storms will eventually evolve towards the early evening. Upscale growth into a linear cluster may focus the severe-wind risk (60-70 mph) mainly this evening as this activity moves south-southeast within an environment of steep 0-3 km lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km) on the northwest rim of richer low-level moisture. ...CO/NM... Scattered high-based thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon over the Sangre de Cristos and adjacent High Plains. These storms will be in a deeply mixed air mass, capable of locally gusty winds and hail for a few hours before weakening during the evening. ...Upper MS Valley... A surface cold front will sweep eastward across the upper MS Valley this afternoon as an upper trough currently over the Dakotas approaches the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to form along/ahead of the front during the afternoon. The stronger storms may be capable of a localized hail/wind risk, but these storms will likely diminish by the early to mid evening. ...Eastern NC... A mid-level trough over the East Coast will gradually pivot east into the western Atlantic by late tonight. Weak large-scale ascent atop an adequately moist/moderately unstable, post frontal airmass may lead to a stronger storm or two developing this afternoon into the early evening. A localized risk for a strong/damaging gust cannot be ruled out before this activity weakens by sunset. ..Smith/Moore.. 06/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of Texas centered on the Edwards Plateau. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. ...West Central TX... Late morning visible/radar shows an MCS over north TX. This activity is associated with a weak upper low and related low-level warm advection. An outflow boundary along the southern flank of this MCS will likely be the focus for afternoon thunderstorm development in a moist and moderately unstable airmass over central portions of TX. Model guidance indicates a small cluster of storms will eventually evolve towards the early evening. Upscale growth into a linear cluster may focus the severe-wind risk (60-70 mph) mainly this evening as this activity moves south-southeast within an environment of steep 0-3 km lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km) on the northwest rim of richer low-level moisture. ...CO/NM... Scattered high-based thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon over the Sangre de Cristos and adjacent High Plains. These storms will be in a deeply mixed air mass, capable of locally gusty winds and hail for a few hours before weakening during the evening. ...Upper MS Valley... A surface cold front will sweep eastward across the upper MS Valley this afternoon as an upper trough currently over the Dakotas approaches the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to form along/ahead of the front during the afternoon. The stronger storms may be capable of a localized hail/wind risk, but these storms will likely diminish by the early to mid evening. ...Eastern NC... A mid-level trough over the East Coast will gradually pivot east into the western Atlantic by late tonight. Weak large-scale ascent atop an adequately moist/moderately unstable, post frontal airmass may lead to a stronger storm or two developing this afternoon into the early evening. A localized risk for a strong/damaging gust cannot be ruled out before this activity weakens by sunset. ..Smith/Moore.. 06/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of Texas centered on the Edwards Plateau. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard. ...West Central TX... Late morning visible/radar shows an MCS over north TX. This activity is associated with a weak upper low and related low-level warm advection. An outflow boundary along the southern flank of this MCS will likely be the focus for afternoon thunderstorm development in a moist and moderately unstable airmass over central portions of TX. Model guidance indicates a small cluster of storms will eventually evolve towards the early evening. Upscale growth into a linear cluster may focus the severe-wind risk (60-70 mph) mainly this evening as this activity moves south-southeast within an environment of steep 0-3 km lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km) on the northwest rim of richer low-level moisture. ...CO/NM... Scattered high-based thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon over the Sangre de Cristos and adjacent High Plains. These storms will be in a deeply mixed air mass, capable of locally gusty winds and hail for a few hours before weakening during the evening. ...Upper MS Valley... A surface cold front will sweep eastward across the upper MS Valley this afternoon as an upper trough currently over the Dakotas approaches the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to form along/ahead of the front during the afternoon. The stronger storms may be capable of a localized hail/wind risk, but these storms will likely diminish by the early to mid evening. ...Eastern NC... A mid-level trough over the East Coast will gradually pivot east into the western Atlantic by late tonight. Weak large-scale ascent atop an adequately moist/moderately unstable, post frontal airmass may lead to a stronger storm or two developing this afternoon into the early evening. A localized risk for a strong/damaging gust cannot be ruled out before this activity weakens by sunset. ..Smith/Moore.. 06/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0708 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across portions of Texas centered on the Edwards Plateau. Hail and gusty winds are the primary threats. ...West Central TX... Morning radar/satellite imagery shows a slow-moving MCS over western north TX, tracking slowly southeastward. This activity is associated with a weak upper low and related low-level warm advection over the region. An outflow boundary along the southern flank of this MCS will likely be the focus for afternoon thunderstorm development in a moist and moderately unstable air mass. Storms that form will track southeastward across the SLGT risk area, posing a risk of damaging wind gusts and some hail. ...CO/NM... Scattered afternoon high-based thunderstorms are expected to form over the mountains and foothills of northern NM/southern CO. These storms will be in a deeply mixed air mass, capable of locally gusty winds and hail for a few hours before weakening. ...Upper MS Valley... A surface cold front will sweep eastward across the upper MS Valley this afternoon as an upper trough currently over the Dakotas approaches the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to form along/ahead of the front during the peak-heating period. The strongest cells may pose a risk of hail and gusty winds. But overall the risk is expected to be rather marginal. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/11/2024 Read more