Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0708 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across portions of Texas centered on the Edwards Plateau. Hail and gusty winds are the primary threats. ...West Central TX... Morning radar/satellite imagery shows a slow-moving MCS over western north TX, tracking slowly southeastward. This activity is associated with a weak upper low and related low-level warm advection over the region. An outflow boundary along the southern flank of this MCS will likely be the focus for afternoon thunderstorm development in a moist and moderately unstable air mass. Storms that form will track southeastward across the SLGT risk area, posing a risk of damaging wind gusts and some hail. ...CO/NM... Scattered afternoon high-based thunderstorms are expected to form over the mountains and foothills of northern NM/southern CO. These storms will be in a deeply mixed air mass, capable of locally gusty winds and hail for a few hours before weakening. ...Upper MS Valley... A surface cold front will sweep eastward across the upper MS Valley this afternoon as an upper trough currently over the Dakotas approaches the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to form along/ahead of the front during the peak-heating period. The strongest cells may pose a risk of hail and gusty winds. But overall the risk is expected to be rather marginal. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0708 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across portions of Texas centered on the Edwards Plateau. Hail and gusty winds are the primary threats. ...West Central TX... Morning radar/satellite imagery shows a slow-moving MCS over western north TX, tracking slowly southeastward. This activity is associated with a weak upper low and related low-level warm advection over the region. An outflow boundary along the southern flank of this MCS will likely be the focus for afternoon thunderstorm development in a moist and moderately unstable air mass. Storms that form will track southeastward across the SLGT risk area, posing a risk of damaging wind gusts and some hail. ...CO/NM... Scattered afternoon high-based thunderstorms are expected to form over the mountains and foothills of northern NM/southern CO. These storms will be in a deeply mixed air mass, capable of locally gusty winds and hail for a few hours before weakening. ...Upper MS Valley... A surface cold front will sweep eastward across the upper MS Valley this afternoon as an upper trough currently over the Dakotas approaches the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to form along/ahead of the front during the peak-heating period. The strongest cells may pose a risk of hail and gusty winds. But overall the risk is expected to be rather marginal. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0708 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across portions of Texas centered on the Edwards Plateau. Hail and gusty winds are the primary threats. ...West Central TX... Morning radar/satellite imagery shows a slow-moving MCS over western north TX, tracking slowly southeastward. This activity is associated with a weak upper low and related low-level warm advection over the region. An outflow boundary along the southern flank of this MCS will likely be the focus for afternoon thunderstorm development in a moist and moderately unstable air mass. Storms that form will track southeastward across the SLGT risk area, posing a risk of damaging wind gusts and some hail. ...CO/NM... Scattered afternoon high-based thunderstorms are expected to form over the mountains and foothills of northern NM/southern CO. These storms will be in a deeply mixed air mass, capable of locally gusty winds and hail for a few hours before weakening. ...Upper MS Valley... A surface cold front will sweep eastward across the upper MS Valley this afternoon as an upper trough currently over the Dakotas approaches the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to form along/ahead of the front during the peak-heating period. The strongest cells may pose a risk of hail and gusty winds. But overall the risk is expected to be rather marginal. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0708 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across portions of Texas centered on the Edwards Plateau. Hail and gusty winds are the primary threats. ...West Central TX... Morning radar/satellite imagery shows a slow-moving MCS over western north TX, tracking slowly southeastward. This activity is associated with a weak upper low and related low-level warm advection over the region. An outflow boundary along the southern flank of this MCS will likely be the focus for afternoon thunderstorm development in a moist and moderately unstable air mass. Storms that form will track southeastward across the SLGT risk area, posing a risk of damaging wind gusts and some hail. ...CO/NM... Scattered afternoon high-based thunderstorms are expected to form over the mountains and foothills of northern NM/southern CO. These storms will be in a deeply mixed air mass, capable of locally gusty winds and hail for a few hours before weakening. ...Upper MS Valley... A surface cold front will sweep eastward across the upper MS Valley this afternoon as an upper trough currently over the Dakotas approaches the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to form along/ahead of the front during the peak-heating period. The strongest cells may pose a risk of hail and gusty winds. But overall the risk is expected to be rather marginal. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/11/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6... From Friday to Sunday, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward from the Great Plains to the northeast, as a shortwave trough moves northeastward from the Four Corners to the upper Mississippi Valley. A somewhat narrow corridor of instability, oriented from southeast to northwest, is forecast ahead of the trough on Friday and Saturday. As the trough moves out into the central High Plains, isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop across parts the instability corridor, with the greatest convective coverage likely in the evening and overnight period when the airmass is less likely to be capped. A severe threat could be associated with the stronger cells within the clusters that form near areas of moderate to strong instability. The main uncertainty involves the position of the instability axis relative the approaching trough. Some models suggest that the two will be far removed from each other, which introduces a lot of uncertainty concerning any potential scenario. On Sunday, the shortwave trough is forecast to move into the upper Mississippi Valley, and out-run the stronger instability located in the mid Missouri Valley. Strong to potentially severe storms may still develop in association with the trough, but the forecast position of the warm sector relative to the trough introduces uncertainty into the forecast. ...Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8... On Monday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move into the western U.S., as southwest mid-level flow remains over much of the central U.S. It appears that a moist and unstable airmass will be located from the central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley, where isolated to scattered strong to severe storms will be possible each day. However, model spread is large concerning the timing of shortwave features and the positioning of instability. For this reason, uncertainty is considerable for Monday and Tuesday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6... From Friday to Sunday, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward from the Great Plains to the northeast, as a shortwave trough moves northeastward from the Four Corners to the upper Mississippi Valley. A somewhat narrow corridor of instability, oriented from southeast to northwest, is forecast ahead of the trough on Friday and Saturday. As the trough moves out into the central High Plains, isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop across parts the instability corridor, with the greatest convective coverage likely in the evening and overnight period when the airmass is less likely to be capped. A severe threat could be associated with the stronger cells within the clusters that form near areas of moderate to strong instability. The main uncertainty involves the position of the instability axis relative the approaching trough. Some models suggest that the two will be far removed from each other, which introduces a lot of uncertainty concerning any potential scenario. On Sunday, the shortwave trough is forecast to move into the upper Mississippi Valley, and out-run the stronger instability located in the mid Missouri Valley. Strong to potentially severe storms may still develop in association with the trough, but the forecast position of the warm sector relative to the trough introduces uncertainty into the forecast. ...Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8... On Monday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move into the western U.S., as southwest mid-level flow remains over much of the central U.S. It appears that a moist and unstable airmass will be located from the central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley, where isolated to scattered strong to severe storms will be possible each day. However, model spread is large concerning the timing of shortwave features and the positioning of instability. For this reason, uncertainty is considerable for Monday and Tuesday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6... From Friday to Sunday, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward from the Great Plains to the northeast, as a shortwave trough moves northeastward from the Four Corners to the upper Mississippi Valley. A somewhat narrow corridor of instability, oriented from southeast to northwest, is forecast ahead of the trough on Friday and Saturday. As the trough moves out into the central High Plains, isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop across parts the instability corridor, with the greatest convective coverage likely in the evening and overnight period when the airmass is less likely to be capped. A severe threat could be associated with the stronger cells within the clusters that form near areas of moderate to strong instability. The main uncertainty involves the position of the instability axis relative the approaching trough. Some models suggest that the two will be far removed from each other, which introduces a lot of uncertainty concerning any potential scenario. On Sunday, the shortwave trough is forecast to move into the upper Mississippi Valley, and out-run the stronger instability located in the mid Missouri Valley. Strong to potentially severe storms may still develop in association with the trough, but the forecast position of the warm sector relative to the trough introduces uncertainty into the forecast. ...Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8... On Monday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move into the western U.S., as southwest mid-level flow remains over much of the central U.S. It appears that a moist and unstable airmass will be located from the central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley, where isolated to scattered strong to severe storms will be possible each day. However, model spread is large concerning the timing of shortwave features and the positioning of instability. For this reason, uncertainty is considerable for Monday and Tuesday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6... From Friday to Sunday, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward from the Great Plains to the northeast, as a shortwave trough moves northeastward from the Four Corners to the upper Mississippi Valley. A somewhat narrow corridor of instability, oriented from southeast to northwest, is forecast ahead of the trough on Friday and Saturday. As the trough moves out into the central High Plains, isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop across parts the instability corridor, with the greatest convective coverage likely in the evening and overnight period when the airmass is less likely to be capped. A severe threat could be associated with the stronger cells within the clusters that form near areas of moderate to strong instability. The main uncertainty involves the position of the instability axis relative the approaching trough. Some models suggest that the two will be far removed from each other, which introduces a lot of uncertainty concerning any potential scenario. On Sunday, the shortwave trough is forecast to move into the upper Mississippi Valley, and out-run the stronger instability located in the mid Missouri Valley. Strong to potentially severe storms may still develop in association with the trough, but the forecast position of the warm sector relative to the trough introduces uncertainty into the forecast. ...Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8... On Monday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move into the western U.S., as southwest mid-level flow remains over much of the central U.S. It appears that a moist and unstable airmass will be located from the central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley, where isolated to scattered strong to severe storms will be possible each day. However, model spread is large concerning the timing of shortwave features and the positioning of instability. For this reason, uncertainty is considerable for Monday and Tuesday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6... From Friday to Sunday, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward from the Great Plains to the northeast, as a shortwave trough moves northeastward from the Four Corners to the upper Mississippi Valley. A somewhat narrow corridor of instability, oriented from southeast to northwest, is forecast ahead of the trough on Friday and Saturday. As the trough moves out into the central High Plains, isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop across parts the instability corridor, with the greatest convective coverage likely in the evening and overnight period when the airmass is less likely to be capped. A severe threat could be associated with the stronger cells within the clusters that form near areas of moderate to strong instability. The main uncertainty involves the position of the instability axis relative the approaching trough. Some models suggest that the two will be far removed from each other, which introduces a lot of uncertainty concerning any potential scenario. On Sunday, the shortwave trough is forecast to move into the upper Mississippi Valley, and out-run the stronger instability located in the mid Missouri Valley. Strong to potentially severe storms may still develop in association with the trough, but the forecast position of the warm sector relative to the trough introduces uncertainty into the forecast. ...Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8... On Monday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move into the western U.S., as southwest mid-level flow remains over much of the central U.S. It appears that a moist and unstable airmass will be located from the central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley, where isolated to scattered strong to severe storms will be possible each day. However, model spread is large concerning the timing of shortwave features and the positioning of instability. For this reason, uncertainty is considerable for Monday and Tuesday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6... From Friday to Sunday, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward from the Great Plains to the northeast, as a shortwave trough moves northeastward from the Four Corners to the upper Mississippi Valley. A somewhat narrow corridor of instability, oriented from southeast to northwest, is forecast ahead of the trough on Friday and Saturday. As the trough moves out into the central High Plains, isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop across parts the instability corridor, with the greatest convective coverage likely in the evening and overnight period when the airmass is less likely to be capped. A severe threat could be associated with the stronger cells within the clusters that form near areas of moderate to strong instability. The main uncertainty involves the position of the instability axis relative the approaching trough. Some models suggest that the two will be far removed from each other, which introduces a lot of uncertainty concerning any potential scenario. On Sunday, the shortwave trough is forecast to move into the upper Mississippi Valley, and out-run the stronger instability located in the mid Missouri Valley. Strong to potentially severe storms may still develop in association with the trough, but the forecast position of the warm sector relative to the trough introduces uncertainty into the forecast. ...Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8... On Monday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move into the western U.S., as southwest mid-level flow remains over much of the central U.S. It appears that a moist and unstable airmass will be located from the central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley, where isolated to scattered strong to severe storms will be possible each day. However, model spread is large concerning the timing of shortwave features and the positioning of instability. For this reason, uncertainty is considerable for Monday and Tuesday. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with large hail and severe gusts will be possible on Thursday in parts of the central Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. Marginally severe storms will also be possible in parts of the Great Lakes and central High Plains. ...Central Plains/Mid Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes... An upper-level trough will move eastward into the Great Lakes region on Thursday, as a cold front advances southward into the central Plains, mid Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes. Along and to the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F, will likely contribute to the development of moderate instability by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorms are expected to form along the front, with several clusters of strong to potentially severe storms moving southeastward across the central Plains, mid Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes region. The greatest potential for severe storms appears to be from northeast Kansas east-northeastward into north-central Illinois where the models suggest that the strongest instability will develop. Along the front, the NAM has the strongest instability in northeast Kansas, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 4000 to 5000 J/kg range in the late afternoon. At that time, the NAM forecast sounding at Kansas City has gradually veering winds with height, 0-6 km shear near 30 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. This environment would support a potential for supercells with large hail. However, with northwest mid-level flow aloft, persistent convective clusters may tend to organize into line segments with wind-damage potential. The chance for severe wind gusts could extend east-northeastward along a narrow corridor of instability into north-central Illinois, northern Indiana and Lower Michigan. Due to more widely-spaced storms in the Great Lakes region, the threat may be more isolated with northeastward extent. ...Central High Plains... An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward through the Rockies on Thursday. A narrow axis of maximized instability and moisture is forecast by afternoon to the east of the ridge from northern Kansas into northeast Colorado and far southwest Wyoming. As surface temperatures warm during the day, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop near the instability axis. Although flow is forecast to be relatively weak in the low-levels, speed shear in the mid-levels could be enough for an isolated severe threat. Hail and/or marginally severe wind gusts would be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 06/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with large hail and severe gusts will be possible on Thursday in parts of the central Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. Marginally severe storms will also be possible in parts of the Great Lakes and central High Plains. ...Central Plains/Mid Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes... An upper-level trough will move eastward into the Great Lakes region on Thursday, as a cold front advances southward into the central Plains, mid Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes. Along and to the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F, will likely contribute to the development of moderate instability by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorms are expected to form along the front, with several clusters of strong to potentially severe storms moving southeastward across the central Plains, mid Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes region. The greatest potential for severe storms appears to be from northeast Kansas east-northeastward into north-central Illinois where the models suggest that the strongest instability will develop. Along the front, the NAM has the strongest instability in northeast Kansas, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 4000 to 5000 J/kg range in the late afternoon. At that time, the NAM forecast sounding at Kansas City has gradually veering winds with height, 0-6 km shear near 30 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. This environment would support a potential for supercells with large hail. However, with northwest mid-level flow aloft, persistent convective clusters may tend to organize into line segments with wind-damage potential. The chance for severe wind gusts could extend east-northeastward along a narrow corridor of instability into north-central Illinois, northern Indiana and Lower Michigan. Due to more widely-spaced storms in the Great Lakes region, the threat may be more isolated with northeastward extent. ...Central High Plains... An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward through the Rockies on Thursday. A narrow axis of maximized instability and moisture is forecast by afternoon to the east of the ridge from northern Kansas into northeast Colorado and far southwest Wyoming. As surface temperatures warm during the day, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop near the instability axis. Although flow is forecast to be relatively weak in the low-levels, speed shear in the mid-levels could be enough for an isolated severe threat. Hail and/or marginally severe wind gusts would be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 06/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with large hail and severe gusts will be possible on Thursday in parts of the central Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. Marginally severe storms will also be possible in parts of the Great Lakes and central High Plains. ...Central Plains/Mid Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes... An upper-level trough will move eastward into the Great Lakes region on Thursday, as a cold front advances southward into the central Plains, mid Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes. Along and to the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F, will likely contribute to the development of moderate instability by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorms are expected to form along the front, with several clusters of strong to potentially severe storms moving southeastward across the central Plains, mid Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes region. The greatest potential for severe storms appears to be from northeast Kansas east-northeastward into north-central Illinois where the models suggest that the strongest instability will develop. Along the front, the NAM has the strongest instability in northeast Kansas, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 4000 to 5000 J/kg range in the late afternoon. At that time, the NAM forecast sounding at Kansas City has gradually veering winds with height, 0-6 km shear near 30 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. This environment would support a potential for supercells with large hail. However, with northwest mid-level flow aloft, persistent convective clusters may tend to organize into line segments with wind-damage potential. The chance for severe wind gusts could extend east-northeastward along a narrow corridor of instability into north-central Illinois, northern Indiana and Lower Michigan. Due to more widely-spaced storms in the Great Lakes region, the threat may be more isolated with northeastward extent. ...Central High Plains... An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward through the Rockies on Thursday. A narrow axis of maximized instability and moisture is forecast by afternoon to the east of the ridge from northern Kansas into northeast Colorado and far southwest Wyoming. As surface temperatures warm during the day, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop near the instability axis. Although flow is forecast to be relatively weak in the low-levels, speed shear in the mid-levels could be enough for an isolated severe threat. Hail and/or marginally severe wind gusts would be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 06/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with large hail and severe gusts will be possible on Thursday in parts of the central Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. Marginally severe storms will also be possible in parts of the Great Lakes and central High Plains. ...Central Plains/Mid Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes... An upper-level trough will move eastward into the Great Lakes region on Thursday, as a cold front advances southward into the central Plains, mid Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes. Along and to the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F, will likely contribute to the development of moderate instability by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorms are expected to form along the front, with several clusters of strong to potentially severe storms moving southeastward across the central Plains, mid Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes region. The greatest potential for severe storms appears to be from northeast Kansas east-northeastward into north-central Illinois where the models suggest that the strongest instability will develop. Along the front, the NAM has the strongest instability in northeast Kansas, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 4000 to 5000 J/kg range in the late afternoon. At that time, the NAM forecast sounding at Kansas City has gradually veering winds with height, 0-6 km shear near 30 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. This environment would support a potential for supercells with large hail. However, with northwest mid-level flow aloft, persistent convective clusters may tend to organize into line segments with wind-damage potential. The chance for severe wind gusts could extend east-northeastward along a narrow corridor of instability into north-central Illinois, northern Indiana and Lower Michigan. Due to more widely-spaced storms in the Great Lakes region, the threat may be more isolated with northeastward extent. ...Central High Plains... An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward through the Rockies on Thursday. A narrow axis of maximized instability and moisture is forecast by afternoon to the east of the ridge from northern Kansas into northeast Colorado and far southwest Wyoming. As surface temperatures warm during the day, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop near the instability axis. Although flow is forecast to be relatively weak in the low-levels, speed shear in the mid-levels could be enough for an isolated severe threat. Hail and/or marginally severe wind gusts would be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 06/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with large hail and severe gusts will be possible on Thursday in parts of the central Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. Marginally severe storms will also be possible in parts of the Great Lakes and central High Plains. ...Central Plains/Mid Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes... An upper-level trough will move eastward into the Great Lakes region on Thursday, as a cold front advances southward into the central Plains, mid Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes. Along and to the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F, will likely contribute to the development of moderate instability by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorms are expected to form along the front, with several clusters of strong to potentially severe storms moving southeastward across the central Plains, mid Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes region. The greatest potential for severe storms appears to be from northeast Kansas east-northeastward into north-central Illinois where the models suggest that the strongest instability will develop. Along the front, the NAM has the strongest instability in northeast Kansas, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 4000 to 5000 J/kg range in the late afternoon. At that time, the NAM forecast sounding at Kansas City has gradually veering winds with height, 0-6 km shear near 30 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. This environment would support a potential for supercells with large hail. However, with northwest mid-level flow aloft, persistent convective clusters may tend to organize into line segments with wind-damage potential. The chance for severe wind gusts could extend east-northeastward along a narrow corridor of instability into north-central Illinois, northern Indiana and Lower Michigan. Due to more widely-spaced storms in the Great Lakes region, the threat may be more isolated with northeastward extent. ...Central High Plains... An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward through the Rockies on Thursday. A narrow axis of maximized instability and moisture is forecast by afternoon to the east of the ridge from northern Kansas into northeast Colorado and far southwest Wyoming. As surface temperatures warm during the day, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop near the instability axis. Although flow is forecast to be relatively weak in the low-levels, speed shear in the mid-levels could be enough for an isolated severe threat. Hail and/or marginally severe wind gusts would be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 06/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with large hail and severe gusts will be possible on Thursday in parts of the central Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. Marginally severe storms will also be possible in parts of the Great Lakes and central High Plains. ...Central Plains/Mid Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes... An upper-level trough will move eastward into the Great Lakes region on Thursday, as a cold front advances southward into the central Plains, mid Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes. Along and to the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F, will likely contribute to the development of moderate instability by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorms are expected to form along the front, with several clusters of strong to potentially severe storms moving southeastward across the central Plains, mid Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes region. The greatest potential for severe storms appears to be from northeast Kansas east-northeastward into north-central Illinois where the models suggest that the strongest instability will develop. Along the front, the NAM has the strongest instability in northeast Kansas, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 4000 to 5000 J/kg range in the late afternoon. At that time, the NAM forecast sounding at Kansas City has gradually veering winds with height, 0-6 km shear near 30 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. This environment would support a potential for supercells with large hail. However, with northwest mid-level flow aloft, persistent convective clusters may tend to organize into line segments with wind-damage potential. The chance for severe wind gusts could extend east-northeastward along a narrow corridor of instability into north-central Illinois, northern Indiana and Lower Michigan. Due to more widely-spaced storms in the Great Lakes region, the threat may be more isolated with northeastward extent. ...Central High Plains... An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward through the Rockies on Thursday. A narrow axis of maximized instability and moisture is forecast by afternoon to the east of the ridge from northern Kansas into northeast Colorado and far southwest Wyoming. As surface temperatures warm during the day, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop near the instability axis. Although flow is forecast to be relatively weak in the low-levels, speed shear in the mid-levels could be enough for an isolated severe threat. Hail and/or marginally severe wind gusts would be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 06/11/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Ahead of a slow-moving midlevel low off the southern CA coast, a belt of moderate southerly flow aloft will overspread the Desert Southwest and southern Great Basin. This will promote modestly breezy southerly surface winds across portions of northern AZ, southern NV, and southern UT -- where a deep/dry boundary layer will be in place. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible here, sustained surface winds appear too marginal for fire-weather highlights, given near-normal fuels across much of the area. ..Weinman.. 06/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Ahead of a slow-moving midlevel low off the southern CA coast, a belt of moderate southerly flow aloft will overspread the Desert Southwest and southern Great Basin. This will promote modestly breezy southerly surface winds across portions of northern AZ, southern NV, and southern UT -- where a deep/dry boundary layer will be in place. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible here, sustained surface winds appear too marginal for fire-weather highlights, given near-normal fuels across much of the area. ..Weinman.. 06/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Ahead of a slow-moving midlevel low off the southern CA coast, a belt of moderate southerly flow aloft will overspread the Desert Southwest and southern Great Basin. This will promote modestly breezy southerly surface winds across portions of northern AZ, southern NV, and southern UT -- where a deep/dry boundary layer will be in place. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible here, sustained surface winds appear too marginal for fire-weather highlights, given near-normal fuels across much of the area. ..Weinman.. 06/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Ahead of a slow-moving midlevel low off the southern CA coast, a belt of moderate southerly flow aloft will overspread the Desert Southwest and southern Great Basin. This will promote modestly breezy southerly surface winds across portions of northern AZ, southern NV, and southern UT -- where a deep/dry boundary layer will be in place. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible here, sustained surface winds appear too marginal for fire-weather highlights, given near-normal fuels across much of the area. ..Weinman.. 06/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more