Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NEVADA AND NORTHWESTERN UTAH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of 60-75 mph gusts are forecast across portions of central/northeast Montana and northeastern Nevada/northwestern Utah late this afternoon into the evening. ...20z Update... A Slight Risk was introduced across northeastern Nevada and northwestern Utah, where scattered to numerous thunderstorms posing a risk of severe gusts should develop by the afternoon. Recent runs of the HRRR, as well as guidance from the 12Z HREF, continue to indicate the possibility of convection consolidating along outflow and surging northeast into northwestern Utah through the evening. Forecast sounding profiles support risk for severe gusts, with steep low to mid-level lapse rates and characteristic inverted-v indicative of large dew point spreads. This will support downward momentum transport of severe wind up to 60-70 mph, especially where outflow storms can consolidate along outflow. The Marginal Risk across Arizona was expanded westward into far southwestern Arizona to encompass potential for a cluster of thunderstorms to push westward by late evening. Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue across the high country before a gradual shift into the low deserts by the evening. Some consideration was given to a Slight Risk in this area but uncertainty remains in storm coverage along the Mogollon Rim and whether strong outflow will develop and move southwestward into the low terrain this evening. Otherwise, the eastern US Marginal Risk areas remain unchanged. Storms capable of locally damaging winds will continue to be possible through the afternoon and evening. ..Thornton/Smith.. 07/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024/ ...Montana/Northern Rockies to Great Basin... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper-level trough moving east from British Columbia toward Alberta/Saskatchewan, with strengthening cyclonic westerlies overspreading the northern Rockies/Montana. Model guidance continues to indicate scattered thunderstorm development initiating off the higher terrain this afternoon, and in advance of a cold front across central Montana. Forecast soundings shows large to very large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads (40-60 F) later this afternoon. A downward mixing of 30-40+ kt ambient southwesterly to westerly flow in the 700-500 mb layer may contribute to severe-caliber wind gusts in consolidating outflows, as convection spreads eastward into this evening toward eastern Montana and possibly western North Dakota. Farther south over the Great Basin, model guidance appears to be trending towards greater storm coverage (numerous) and associated ability for storm outflow. The 12 UTC HREF in particular (and recent HRRR runs) shows a potential corridor of outflow surging convection from northeast NV into northwest and northern UT during the 23-04 UTC period. Some consideration for a Slight Risk was given but uncertainty precludes an upgrade at this time. ...Arizona... Lingering early day outflow/cloud cover via yesterday's relatively active convection should generally abate by afternoon. As the boundary layer diurnally warms and destabilizes, thunderstorms are again likely to initiate across the Mogollon Rim and adjacent mountains of southwest New Mexico this afternoon. Given the position and movement of the mid-level high, somewhat stronger (around 15 kt) northeasterly steering flow will remain focused across southeast into adjacent portions of central Arizona. Severe gusts will be possible later this afternoon into the mid-late evening as storms progress south-southwestward across the lower deserts of central and southern AZ. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States... Midday visible-satellite imagery shows and extensive cloud shield across much of NC into the southern half of VA. The 12 UTC GSO raob featuring poor lapse rates and meager buoyancy contrasted with the MHX raob (2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and a much more moisture-rich airmass. Thinner cloud cover near the coast will aid in widely scattered storms developing this afternoon largely removed from the southern fringe of large-scale troughing over the Mid-Atlantic states/Northeast. An isolated risk for locally severe gusts may develop for several hours this afternoon into the early evening. Farther north, breaks and thinning of cloud cover will promote stronger heating across northern VA into the northern half of the Chesapeake Bay vicinity than areas farther south. Widely scattered storms are forecast to develop per the latest 12 UTC HREF guidance within this corridor by mid-late afternoon. A belt of 40-50 kt southwesterly 500-mb flow may enhance storm vigor, and a few downdrafts may yield a risk for isolated 45-60 mph gusts capable of localized damage. ...Upper Texas Coast and Southwest Louisiana... Extensive showers and some thunderstorms are ongoing along the Texas coast early today. Influenced by a weak mid-level disturbance, some guidance suggests that a strengthening of low-level winds/shear may occur. However, mid-level winds will remain weak, while the aforementioned convection should considerably limit destabilization inland. These factors seem likely to minimize the potential for anything beyond a very weak/transient circulation. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NEVADA AND NORTHWESTERN UTAH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of 60-75 mph gusts are forecast across portions of central/northeast Montana and northeastern Nevada/northwestern Utah late this afternoon into the evening. ...20z Update... A Slight Risk was introduced across northeastern Nevada and northwestern Utah, where scattered to numerous thunderstorms posing a risk of severe gusts should develop by the afternoon. Recent runs of the HRRR, as well as guidance from the 12Z HREF, continue to indicate the possibility of convection consolidating along outflow and surging northeast into northwestern Utah through the evening. Forecast sounding profiles support risk for severe gusts, with steep low to mid-level lapse rates and characteristic inverted-v indicative of large dew point spreads. This will support downward momentum transport of severe wind up to 60-70 mph, especially where outflow storms can consolidate along outflow. The Marginal Risk across Arizona was expanded westward into far southwestern Arizona to encompass potential for a cluster of thunderstorms to push westward by late evening. Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue across the high country before a gradual shift into the low deserts by the evening. Some consideration was given to a Slight Risk in this area but uncertainty remains in storm coverage along the Mogollon Rim and whether strong outflow will develop and move southwestward into the low terrain this evening. Otherwise, the eastern US Marginal Risk areas remain unchanged. Storms capable of locally damaging winds will continue to be possible through the afternoon and evening. ..Thornton/Smith.. 07/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024/ ...Montana/Northern Rockies to Great Basin... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper-level trough moving east from British Columbia toward Alberta/Saskatchewan, with strengthening cyclonic westerlies overspreading the northern Rockies/Montana. Model guidance continues to indicate scattered thunderstorm development initiating off the higher terrain this afternoon, and in advance of a cold front across central Montana. Forecast soundings shows large to very large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads (40-60 F) later this afternoon. A downward mixing of 30-40+ kt ambient southwesterly to westerly flow in the 700-500 mb layer may contribute to severe-caliber wind gusts in consolidating outflows, as convection spreads eastward into this evening toward eastern Montana and possibly western North Dakota. Farther south over the Great Basin, model guidance appears to be trending towards greater storm coverage (numerous) and associated ability for storm outflow. The 12 UTC HREF in particular (and recent HRRR runs) shows a potential corridor of outflow surging convection from northeast NV into northwest and northern UT during the 23-04 UTC period. Some consideration for a Slight Risk was given but uncertainty precludes an upgrade at this time. ...Arizona... Lingering early day outflow/cloud cover via yesterday's relatively active convection should generally abate by afternoon. As the boundary layer diurnally warms and destabilizes, thunderstorms are again likely to initiate across the Mogollon Rim and adjacent mountains of southwest New Mexico this afternoon. Given the position and movement of the mid-level high, somewhat stronger (around 15 kt) northeasterly steering flow will remain focused across southeast into adjacent portions of central Arizona. Severe gusts will be possible later this afternoon into the mid-late evening as storms progress south-southwestward across the lower deserts of central and southern AZ. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States... Midday visible-satellite imagery shows and extensive cloud shield across much of NC into the southern half of VA. The 12 UTC GSO raob featuring poor lapse rates and meager buoyancy contrasted with the MHX raob (2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and a much more moisture-rich airmass. Thinner cloud cover near the coast will aid in widely scattered storms developing this afternoon largely removed from the southern fringe of large-scale troughing over the Mid-Atlantic states/Northeast. An isolated risk for locally severe gusts may develop for several hours this afternoon into the early evening. Farther north, breaks and thinning of cloud cover will promote stronger heating across northern VA into the northern half of the Chesapeake Bay vicinity than areas farther south. Widely scattered storms are forecast to develop per the latest 12 UTC HREF guidance within this corridor by mid-late afternoon. A belt of 40-50 kt southwesterly 500-mb flow may enhance storm vigor, and a few downdrafts may yield a risk for isolated 45-60 mph gusts capable of localized damage. ...Upper Texas Coast and Southwest Louisiana... Extensive showers and some thunderstorms are ongoing along the Texas coast early today. Influenced by a weak mid-level disturbance, some guidance suggests that a strengthening of low-level winds/shear may occur. However, mid-level winds will remain weak, while the aforementioned convection should considerably limit destabilization inland. These factors seem likely to minimize the potential for anything beyond a very weak/transient circulation. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NEVADA AND NORTHWESTERN UTAH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of 60-75 mph gusts are forecast across portions of central/northeast Montana and northeastern Nevada/northwestern Utah late this afternoon into the evening. ...20z Update... A Slight Risk was introduced across northeastern Nevada and northwestern Utah, where scattered to numerous thunderstorms posing a risk of severe gusts should develop by the afternoon. Recent runs of the HRRR, as well as guidance from the 12Z HREF, continue to indicate the possibility of convection consolidating along outflow and surging northeast into northwestern Utah through the evening. Forecast sounding profiles support risk for severe gusts, with steep low to mid-level lapse rates and characteristic inverted-v indicative of large dew point spreads. This will support downward momentum transport of severe wind up to 60-70 mph, especially where outflow storms can consolidate along outflow. The Marginal Risk across Arizona was expanded westward into far southwestern Arizona to encompass potential for a cluster of thunderstorms to push westward by late evening. Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue across the high country before a gradual shift into the low deserts by the evening. Some consideration was given to a Slight Risk in this area but uncertainty remains in storm coverage along the Mogollon Rim and whether strong outflow will develop and move southwestward into the low terrain this evening. Otherwise, the eastern US Marginal Risk areas remain unchanged. Storms capable of locally damaging winds will continue to be possible through the afternoon and evening. ..Thornton/Smith.. 07/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024/ ...Montana/Northern Rockies to Great Basin... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper-level trough moving east from British Columbia toward Alberta/Saskatchewan, with strengthening cyclonic westerlies overspreading the northern Rockies/Montana. Model guidance continues to indicate scattered thunderstorm development initiating off the higher terrain this afternoon, and in advance of a cold front across central Montana. Forecast soundings shows large to very large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads (40-60 F) later this afternoon. A downward mixing of 30-40+ kt ambient southwesterly to westerly flow in the 700-500 mb layer may contribute to severe-caliber wind gusts in consolidating outflows, as convection spreads eastward into this evening toward eastern Montana and possibly western North Dakota. Farther south over the Great Basin, model guidance appears to be trending towards greater storm coverage (numerous) and associated ability for storm outflow. The 12 UTC HREF in particular (and recent HRRR runs) shows a potential corridor of outflow surging convection from northeast NV into northwest and northern UT during the 23-04 UTC period. Some consideration for a Slight Risk was given but uncertainty precludes an upgrade at this time. ...Arizona... Lingering early day outflow/cloud cover via yesterday's relatively active convection should generally abate by afternoon. As the boundary layer diurnally warms and destabilizes, thunderstorms are again likely to initiate across the Mogollon Rim and adjacent mountains of southwest New Mexico this afternoon. Given the position and movement of the mid-level high, somewhat stronger (around 15 kt) northeasterly steering flow will remain focused across southeast into adjacent portions of central Arizona. Severe gusts will be possible later this afternoon into the mid-late evening as storms progress south-southwestward across the lower deserts of central and southern AZ. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States... Midday visible-satellite imagery shows and extensive cloud shield across much of NC into the southern half of VA. The 12 UTC GSO raob featuring poor lapse rates and meager buoyancy contrasted with the MHX raob (2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and a much more moisture-rich airmass. Thinner cloud cover near the coast will aid in widely scattered storms developing this afternoon largely removed from the southern fringe of large-scale troughing over the Mid-Atlantic states/Northeast. An isolated risk for locally severe gusts may develop for several hours this afternoon into the early evening. Farther north, breaks and thinning of cloud cover will promote stronger heating across northern VA into the northern half of the Chesapeake Bay vicinity than areas farther south. Widely scattered storms are forecast to develop per the latest 12 UTC HREF guidance within this corridor by mid-late afternoon. A belt of 40-50 kt southwesterly 500-mb flow may enhance storm vigor, and a few downdrafts may yield a risk for isolated 45-60 mph gusts capable of localized damage. ...Upper Texas Coast and Southwest Louisiana... Extensive showers and some thunderstorms are ongoing along the Texas coast early today. Influenced by a weak mid-level disturbance, some guidance suggests that a strengthening of low-level winds/shear may occur. However, mid-level winds will remain weak, while the aforementioned convection should considerably limit destabilization inland. These factors seem likely to minimize the potential for anything beyond a very weak/transient circulation. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NEVADA AND NORTHWESTERN UTAH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of 60-75 mph gusts are forecast across portions of central/northeast Montana and northeastern Nevada/northwestern Utah late this afternoon into the evening. ...20z Update... A Slight Risk was introduced across northeastern Nevada and northwestern Utah, where scattered to numerous thunderstorms posing a risk of severe gusts should develop by the afternoon. Recent runs of the HRRR, as well as guidance from the 12Z HREF, continue to indicate the possibility of convection consolidating along outflow and surging northeast into northwestern Utah through the evening. Forecast sounding profiles support risk for severe gusts, with steep low to mid-level lapse rates and characteristic inverted-v indicative of large dew point spreads. This will support downward momentum transport of severe wind up to 60-70 mph, especially where outflow storms can consolidate along outflow. The Marginal Risk across Arizona was expanded westward into far southwestern Arizona to encompass potential for a cluster of thunderstorms to push westward by late evening. Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue across the high country before a gradual shift into the low deserts by the evening. Some consideration was given to a Slight Risk in this area but uncertainty remains in storm coverage along the Mogollon Rim and whether strong outflow will develop and move southwestward into the low terrain this evening. Otherwise, the eastern US Marginal Risk areas remain unchanged. Storms capable of locally damaging winds will continue to be possible through the afternoon and evening. ..Thornton/Smith.. 07/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024/ ...Montana/Northern Rockies to Great Basin... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper-level trough moving east from British Columbia toward Alberta/Saskatchewan, with strengthening cyclonic westerlies overspreading the northern Rockies/Montana. Model guidance continues to indicate scattered thunderstorm development initiating off the higher terrain this afternoon, and in advance of a cold front across central Montana. Forecast soundings shows large to very large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads (40-60 F) later this afternoon. A downward mixing of 30-40+ kt ambient southwesterly to westerly flow in the 700-500 mb layer may contribute to severe-caliber wind gusts in consolidating outflows, as convection spreads eastward into this evening toward eastern Montana and possibly western North Dakota. Farther south over the Great Basin, model guidance appears to be trending towards greater storm coverage (numerous) and associated ability for storm outflow. The 12 UTC HREF in particular (and recent HRRR runs) shows a potential corridor of outflow surging convection from northeast NV into northwest and northern UT during the 23-04 UTC period. Some consideration for a Slight Risk was given but uncertainty precludes an upgrade at this time. ...Arizona... Lingering early day outflow/cloud cover via yesterday's relatively active convection should generally abate by afternoon. As the boundary layer diurnally warms and destabilizes, thunderstorms are again likely to initiate across the Mogollon Rim and adjacent mountains of southwest New Mexico this afternoon. Given the position and movement of the mid-level high, somewhat stronger (around 15 kt) northeasterly steering flow will remain focused across southeast into adjacent portions of central Arizona. Severe gusts will be possible later this afternoon into the mid-late evening as storms progress south-southwestward across the lower deserts of central and southern AZ. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States... Midday visible-satellite imagery shows and extensive cloud shield across much of NC into the southern half of VA. The 12 UTC GSO raob featuring poor lapse rates and meager buoyancy contrasted with the MHX raob (2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and a much more moisture-rich airmass. Thinner cloud cover near the coast will aid in widely scattered storms developing this afternoon largely removed from the southern fringe of large-scale troughing over the Mid-Atlantic states/Northeast. An isolated risk for locally severe gusts may develop for several hours this afternoon into the early evening. Farther north, breaks and thinning of cloud cover will promote stronger heating across northern VA into the northern half of the Chesapeake Bay vicinity than areas farther south. Widely scattered storms are forecast to develop per the latest 12 UTC HREF guidance within this corridor by mid-late afternoon. A belt of 40-50 kt southwesterly 500-mb flow may enhance storm vigor, and a few downdrafts may yield a risk for isolated 45-60 mph gusts capable of localized damage. ...Upper Texas Coast and Southwest Louisiana... Extensive showers and some thunderstorms are ongoing along the Texas coast early today. Influenced by a weak mid-level disturbance, some guidance suggests that a strengthening of low-level winds/shear may occur. However, mid-level winds will remain weak, while the aforementioned convection should considerably limit destabilization inland. These factors seem likely to minimize the potential for anything beyond a very weak/transient circulation. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NEVADA AND NORTHWESTERN UTAH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of 60-75 mph gusts are forecast across portions of central/northeast Montana and northeastern Nevada/northwestern Utah late this afternoon into the evening. ...20z Update... A Slight Risk was introduced across northeastern Nevada and northwestern Utah, where scattered to numerous thunderstorms posing a risk of severe gusts should develop by the afternoon. Recent runs of the HRRR, as well as guidance from the 12Z HREF, continue to indicate the possibility of convection consolidating along outflow and surging northeast into northwestern Utah through the evening. Forecast sounding profiles support risk for severe gusts, with steep low to mid-level lapse rates and characteristic inverted-v indicative of large dew point spreads. This will support downward momentum transport of severe wind up to 60-70 mph, especially where outflow storms can consolidate along outflow. The Marginal Risk across Arizona was expanded westward into far southwestern Arizona to encompass potential for a cluster of thunderstorms to push westward by late evening. Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue across the high country before a gradual shift into the low deserts by the evening. Some consideration was given to a Slight Risk in this area but uncertainty remains in storm coverage along the Mogollon Rim and whether strong outflow will develop and move southwestward into the low terrain this evening. Otherwise, the eastern US Marginal Risk areas remain unchanged. Storms capable of locally damaging winds will continue to be possible through the afternoon and evening. ..Thornton/Smith.. 07/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024/ ...Montana/Northern Rockies to Great Basin... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper-level trough moving east from British Columbia toward Alberta/Saskatchewan, with strengthening cyclonic westerlies overspreading the northern Rockies/Montana. Model guidance continues to indicate scattered thunderstorm development initiating off the higher terrain this afternoon, and in advance of a cold front across central Montana. Forecast soundings shows large to very large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads (40-60 F) later this afternoon. A downward mixing of 30-40+ kt ambient southwesterly to westerly flow in the 700-500 mb layer may contribute to severe-caliber wind gusts in consolidating outflows, as convection spreads eastward into this evening toward eastern Montana and possibly western North Dakota. Farther south over the Great Basin, model guidance appears to be trending towards greater storm coverage (numerous) and associated ability for storm outflow. The 12 UTC HREF in particular (and recent HRRR runs) shows a potential corridor of outflow surging convection from northeast NV into northwest and northern UT during the 23-04 UTC period. Some consideration for a Slight Risk was given but uncertainty precludes an upgrade at this time. ...Arizona... Lingering early day outflow/cloud cover via yesterday's relatively active convection should generally abate by afternoon. As the boundary layer diurnally warms and destabilizes, thunderstorms are again likely to initiate across the Mogollon Rim and adjacent mountains of southwest New Mexico this afternoon. Given the position and movement of the mid-level high, somewhat stronger (around 15 kt) northeasterly steering flow will remain focused across southeast into adjacent portions of central Arizona. Severe gusts will be possible later this afternoon into the mid-late evening as storms progress south-southwestward across the lower deserts of central and southern AZ. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States... Midday visible-satellite imagery shows and extensive cloud shield across much of NC into the southern half of VA. The 12 UTC GSO raob featuring poor lapse rates and meager buoyancy contrasted with the MHX raob (2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and a much more moisture-rich airmass. Thinner cloud cover near the coast will aid in widely scattered storms developing this afternoon largely removed from the southern fringe of large-scale troughing over the Mid-Atlantic states/Northeast. An isolated risk for locally severe gusts may develop for several hours this afternoon into the early evening. Farther north, breaks and thinning of cloud cover will promote stronger heating across northern VA into the northern half of the Chesapeake Bay vicinity than areas farther south. Widely scattered storms are forecast to develop per the latest 12 UTC HREF guidance within this corridor by mid-late afternoon. A belt of 40-50 kt southwesterly 500-mb flow may enhance storm vigor, and a few downdrafts may yield a risk for isolated 45-60 mph gusts capable of localized damage. ...Upper Texas Coast and Southwest Louisiana... Extensive showers and some thunderstorms are ongoing along the Texas coast early today. Influenced by a weak mid-level disturbance, some guidance suggests that a strengthening of low-level winds/shear may occur. However, mid-level winds will remain weak, while the aforementioned convection should considerably limit destabilization inland. These factors seem likely to minimize the potential for anything beyond a very weak/transient circulation. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NEVADA AND NORTHWESTERN UTAH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of 60-75 mph gusts are forecast across portions of central/northeast Montana and northeastern Nevada/northwestern Utah late this afternoon into the evening. ...20z Update... A Slight Risk was introduced across northeastern Nevada and northwestern Utah, where scattered to numerous thunderstorms posing a risk of severe gusts should develop by the afternoon. Recent runs of the HRRR, as well as guidance from the 12Z HREF, continue to indicate the possibility of convection consolidating along outflow and surging northeast into northwestern Utah through the evening. Forecast sounding profiles support risk for severe gusts, with steep low to mid-level lapse rates and characteristic inverted-v indicative of large dew point spreads. This will support downward momentum transport of severe wind up to 60-70 mph, especially where outflow storms can consolidate along outflow. The Marginal Risk across Arizona was expanded westward into far southwestern Arizona to encompass potential for a cluster of thunderstorms to push westward by late evening. Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue across the high country before a gradual shift into the low deserts by the evening. Some consideration was given to a Slight Risk in this area but uncertainty remains in storm coverage along the Mogollon Rim and whether strong outflow will develop and move southwestward into the low terrain this evening. Otherwise, the eastern US Marginal Risk areas remain unchanged. Storms capable of locally damaging winds will continue to be possible through the afternoon and evening. ..Thornton/Smith.. 07/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024/ ...Montana/Northern Rockies to Great Basin... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper-level trough moving east from British Columbia toward Alberta/Saskatchewan, with strengthening cyclonic westerlies overspreading the northern Rockies/Montana. Model guidance continues to indicate scattered thunderstorm development initiating off the higher terrain this afternoon, and in advance of a cold front across central Montana. Forecast soundings shows large to very large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads (40-60 F) later this afternoon. A downward mixing of 30-40+ kt ambient southwesterly to westerly flow in the 700-500 mb layer may contribute to severe-caliber wind gusts in consolidating outflows, as convection spreads eastward into this evening toward eastern Montana and possibly western North Dakota. Farther south over the Great Basin, model guidance appears to be trending towards greater storm coverage (numerous) and associated ability for storm outflow. The 12 UTC HREF in particular (and recent HRRR runs) shows a potential corridor of outflow surging convection from northeast NV into northwest and northern UT during the 23-04 UTC period. Some consideration for a Slight Risk was given but uncertainty precludes an upgrade at this time. ...Arizona... Lingering early day outflow/cloud cover via yesterday's relatively active convection should generally abate by afternoon. As the boundary layer diurnally warms and destabilizes, thunderstorms are again likely to initiate across the Mogollon Rim and adjacent mountains of southwest New Mexico this afternoon. Given the position and movement of the mid-level high, somewhat stronger (around 15 kt) northeasterly steering flow will remain focused across southeast into adjacent portions of central Arizona. Severe gusts will be possible later this afternoon into the mid-late evening as storms progress south-southwestward across the lower deserts of central and southern AZ. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States... Midday visible-satellite imagery shows and extensive cloud shield across much of NC into the southern half of VA. The 12 UTC GSO raob featuring poor lapse rates and meager buoyancy contrasted with the MHX raob (2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and a much more moisture-rich airmass. Thinner cloud cover near the coast will aid in widely scattered storms developing this afternoon largely removed from the southern fringe of large-scale troughing over the Mid-Atlantic states/Northeast. An isolated risk for locally severe gusts may develop for several hours this afternoon into the early evening. Farther north, breaks and thinning of cloud cover will promote stronger heating across northern VA into the northern half of the Chesapeake Bay vicinity than areas farther south. Widely scattered storms are forecast to develop per the latest 12 UTC HREF guidance within this corridor by mid-late afternoon. A belt of 40-50 kt southwesterly 500-mb flow may enhance storm vigor, and a few downdrafts may yield a risk for isolated 45-60 mph gusts capable of localized damage. ...Upper Texas Coast and Southwest Louisiana... Extensive showers and some thunderstorms are ongoing along the Texas coast early today. Influenced by a weak mid-level disturbance, some guidance suggests that a strengthening of low-level winds/shear may occur. However, mid-level winds will remain weak, while the aforementioned convection should considerably limit destabilization inland. These factors seem likely to minimize the potential for anything beyond a very weak/transient circulation. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NEVADA AND NORTHWESTERN UTAH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of 60-75 mph gusts are forecast across portions of central/northeast Montana and northeastern Nevada/northwestern Utah late this afternoon into the evening. ...20z Update... A Slight Risk was introduced across northeastern Nevada and northwestern Utah, where scattered to numerous thunderstorms posing a risk of severe gusts should develop by the afternoon. Recent runs of the HRRR, as well as guidance from the 12Z HREF, continue to indicate the possibility of convection consolidating along outflow and surging northeast into northwestern Utah through the evening. Forecast sounding profiles support risk for severe gusts, with steep low to mid-level lapse rates and characteristic inverted-v indicative of large dew point spreads. This will support downward momentum transport of severe wind up to 60-70 mph, especially where outflow storms can consolidate along outflow. The Marginal Risk across Arizona was expanded westward into far southwestern Arizona to encompass potential for a cluster of thunderstorms to push westward by late evening. Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue across the high country before a gradual shift into the low deserts by the evening. Some consideration was given to a Slight Risk in this area but uncertainty remains in storm coverage along the Mogollon Rim and whether strong outflow will develop and move southwestward into the low terrain this evening. Otherwise, the eastern US Marginal Risk areas remain unchanged. Storms capable of locally damaging winds will continue to be possible through the afternoon and evening. ..Thornton/Smith.. 07/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024/ ...Montana/Northern Rockies to Great Basin... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper-level trough moving east from British Columbia toward Alberta/Saskatchewan, with strengthening cyclonic westerlies overspreading the northern Rockies/Montana. Model guidance continues to indicate scattered thunderstorm development initiating off the higher terrain this afternoon, and in advance of a cold front across central Montana. Forecast soundings shows large to very large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads (40-60 F) later this afternoon. A downward mixing of 30-40+ kt ambient southwesterly to westerly flow in the 700-500 mb layer may contribute to severe-caliber wind gusts in consolidating outflows, as convection spreads eastward into this evening toward eastern Montana and possibly western North Dakota. Farther south over the Great Basin, model guidance appears to be trending towards greater storm coverage (numerous) and associated ability for storm outflow. The 12 UTC HREF in particular (and recent HRRR runs) shows a potential corridor of outflow surging convection from northeast NV into northwest and northern UT during the 23-04 UTC period. Some consideration for a Slight Risk was given but uncertainty precludes an upgrade at this time. ...Arizona... Lingering early day outflow/cloud cover via yesterday's relatively active convection should generally abate by afternoon. As the boundary layer diurnally warms and destabilizes, thunderstorms are again likely to initiate across the Mogollon Rim and adjacent mountains of southwest New Mexico this afternoon. Given the position and movement of the mid-level high, somewhat stronger (around 15 kt) northeasterly steering flow will remain focused across southeast into adjacent portions of central Arizona. Severe gusts will be possible later this afternoon into the mid-late evening as storms progress south-southwestward across the lower deserts of central and southern AZ. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States... Midday visible-satellite imagery shows and extensive cloud shield across much of NC into the southern half of VA. The 12 UTC GSO raob featuring poor lapse rates and meager buoyancy contrasted with the MHX raob (2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and a much more moisture-rich airmass. Thinner cloud cover near the coast will aid in widely scattered storms developing this afternoon largely removed from the southern fringe of large-scale troughing over the Mid-Atlantic states/Northeast. An isolated risk for locally severe gusts may develop for several hours this afternoon into the early evening. Farther north, breaks and thinning of cloud cover will promote stronger heating across northern VA into the northern half of the Chesapeake Bay vicinity than areas farther south. Widely scattered storms are forecast to develop per the latest 12 UTC HREF guidance within this corridor by mid-late afternoon. A belt of 40-50 kt southwesterly 500-mb flow may enhance storm vigor, and a few downdrafts may yield a risk for isolated 45-60 mph gusts capable of localized damage. ...Upper Texas Coast and Southwest Louisiana... Extensive showers and some thunderstorms are ongoing along the Texas coast early today. Influenced by a weak mid-level disturbance, some guidance suggests that a strengthening of low-level winds/shear may occur. However, mid-level winds will remain weak, while the aforementioned convection should considerably limit destabilization inland. These factors seem likely to minimize the potential for anything beyond a very weak/transient circulation. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NEVADA AND NORTHWESTERN UTAH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of 60-75 mph gusts are forecast across portions of central/northeast Montana and northeastern Nevada/northwestern Utah late this afternoon into the evening. ...20z Update... A Slight Risk was introduced across northeastern Nevada and northwestern Utah, where scattered to numerous thunderstorms posing a risk of severe gusts should develop by the afternoon. Recent runs of the HRRR, as well as guidance from the 12Z HREF, continue to indicate the possibility of convection consolidating along outflow and surging northeast into northwestern Utah through the evening. Forecast sounding profiles support risk for severe gusts, with steep low to mid-level lapse rates and characteristic inverted-v indicative of large dew point spreads. This will support downward momentum transport of severe wind up to 60-70 mph, especially where outflow storms can consolidate along outflow. The Marginal Risk across Arizona was expanded westward into far southwestern Arizona to encompass potential for a cluster of thunderstorms to push westward by late evening. Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue across the high country before a gradual shift into the low deserts by the evening. Some consideration was given to a Slight Risk in this area but uncertainty remains in storm coverage along the Mogollon Rim and whether strong outflow will develop and move southwestward into the low terrain this evening. Otherwise, the eastern US Marginal Risk areas remain unchanged. Storms capable of locally damaging winds will continue to be possible through the afternoon and evening. ..Thornton/Smith.. 07/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024/ ...Montana/Northern Rockies to Great Basin... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper-level trough moving east from British Columbia toward Alberta/Saskatchewan, with strengthening cyclonic westerlies overspreading the northern Rockies/Montana. Model guidance continues to indicate scattered thunderstorm development initiating off the higher terrain this afternoon, and in advance of a cold front across central Montana. Forecast soundings shows large to very large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads (40-60 F) later this afternoon. A downward mixing of 30-40+ kt ambient southwesterly to westerly flow in the 700-500 mb layer may contribute to severe-caliber wind gusts in consolidating outflows, as convection spreads eastward into this evening toward eastern Montana and possibly western North Dakota. Farther south over the Great Basin, model guidance appears to be trending towards greater storm coverage (numerous) and associated ability for storm outflow. The 12 UTC HREF in particular (and recent HRRR runs) shows a potential corridor of outflow surging convection from northeast NV into northwest and northern UT during the 23-04 UTC period. Some consideration for a Slight Risk was given but uncertainty precludes an upgrade at this time. ...Arizona... Lingering early day outflow/cloud cover via yesterday's relatively active convection should generally abate by afternoon. As the boundary layer diurnally warms and destabilizes, thunderstorms are again likely to initiate across the Mogollon Rim and adjacent mountains of southwest New Mexico this afternoon. Given the position and movement of the mid-level high, somewhat stronger (around 15 kt) northeasterly steering flow will remain focused across southeast into adjacent portions of central Arizona. Severe gusts will be possible later this afternoon into the mid-late evening as storms progress south-southwestward across the lower deserts of central and southern AZ. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States... Midday visible-satellite imagery shows and extensive cloud shield across much of NC into the southern half of VA. The 12 UTC GSO raob featuring poor lapse rates and meager buoyancy contrasted with the MHX raob (2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and a much more moisture-rich airmass. Thinner cloud cover near the coast will aid in widely scattered storms developing this afternoon largely removed from the southern fringe of large-scale troughing over the Mid-Atlantic states/Northeast. An isolated risk for locally severe gusts may develop for several hours this afternoon into the early evening. Farther north, breaks and thinning of cloud cover will promote stronger heating across northern VA into the northern half of the Chesapeake Bay vicinity than areas farther south. Widely scattered storms are forecast to develop per the latest 12 UTC HREF guidance within this corridor by mid-late afternoon. A belt of 40-50 kt southwesterly 500-mb flow may enhance storm vigor, and a few downdrafts may yield a risk for isolated 45-60 mph gusts capable of localized damage. ...Upper Texas Coast and Southwest Louisiana... Extensive showers and some thunderstorms are ongoing along the Texas coast early today. Influenced by a weak mid-level disturbance, some guidance suggests that a strengthening of low-level winds/shear may occur. However, mid-level winds will remain weak, while the aforementioned convection should considerably limit destabilization inland. These factors seem likely to minimize the potential for anything beyond a very weak/transient circulation. Read more

MD 1706 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MARYLAND...AND FAR WESTERN DELAWARE
Mesoscale Discussion 1706 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Areas affected...Portions of Northeastern Virginia...Central/Southern Maryland...and far western Delaware Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 251901Z - 252030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A few storms may produce localized wind damage, however, watch issuance is not anticipated at this time. DISCUSSION...Surface heating has occurred this morning into the early afternoon north of a mid-level cloud shield, with surface temperatures into the upper 70s and low 80s F, allowing for some destabilization to occur. Consequently, some isolated convective development has ensued where enough residual low-level moisture, characterized by dew point temperatures in the upper 60s F, remains within a post-frontal airmass. This combination is yielding around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Meanwhile, enhanced west-southwesterly flow aloft within the right-entrance region of a mid-level jet is resulting in effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt, along with some vertical ascent. Additional focused convective development is now occurring along the an east-west oriented cold front in northeast Virginia and into portions of central/southern Maryland and moving into a localized corridor of instability peaking near 1000 J/kg ahead of the front. The aforementioned convective development is expected to continue into the afternoon, with scattered storms expected, a few a which may produce downdraft winds capable of localized damage. However, the the expected coverage of the severe threat will likely preclude watch issuance. ..Karstens/Smith.. 07/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX... LAT...LON 37977662 37737830 38057859 38587854 39347747 39427668 39437596 39007563 38307564 37977662 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level shortwave trough moves onshore to the California coast and into Nevada tomorrow, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across northern Utah into southeastern Idaho and southwestern Wyoming. Elevated fire-weather conditions are also expected across portions of the Northwest, including northern California into southwestern Oregon, western portions of the Upper Snake River Region in Idaho, and far northern Montana. ...Northern Utah into Southern Idaho and Southwestern Wyoming... Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected as a mid-level trough and associated jet streak approaches the California coast. Hot, dry boundary-layer profiles, coupled with 35-40 kt mean wind speed estimates for storm motions, will result in little wetting rainfall occurring over receptive fuels. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms are possible further into Wyoming, but fuels in the region are less receptive to ignitions. There may be a chance for isolated dry thunderstorms in far southern Montana, but the threat appears to be too localized to include a highlight area at this time. ...Northwest... Elevated fire-weather conditions will persist across portions of southern Oregon and into northwestern California with the approaching trough. The strongest winds will likely be confined to the Fremont mountains and Modoc Plateau. Portions of northern Montana could also see elevated fire-weather conditions on Friday, where prolonged dry and windy conditions will overlap with receptive fuels as a mid-level jet extending from Saskatchewan into Montana begins to exit the region and progress eastward. The most pronounced region for elevated conditions is expected to be across portions of the Snake River Plain and into the Upper Snake Region, where there is significant overlap between 20-25 kt surface winds, < 15% RH, and receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level shortwave trough moves onshore to the California coast and into Nevada tomorrow, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across northern Utah into southeastern Idaho and southwestern Wyoming. Elevated fire-weather conditions are also expected across portions of the Northwest, including northern California into southwestern Oregon, western portions of the Upper Snake River Region in Idaho, and far northern Montana. ...Northern Utah into Southern Idaho and Southwestern Wyoming... Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected as a mid-level trough and associated jet streak approaches the California coast. Hot, dry boundary-layer profiles, coupled with 35-40 kt mean wind speed estimates for storm motions, will result in little wetting rainfall occurring over receptive fuels. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms are possible further into Wyoming, but fuels in the region are less receptive to ignitions. There may be a chance for isolated dry thunderstorms in far southern Montana, but the threat appears to be too localized to include a highlight area at this time. ...Northwest... Elevated fire-weather conditions will persist across portions of southern Oregon and into northwestern California with the approaching trough. The strongest winds will likely be confined to the Fremont mountains and Modoc Plateau. Portions of northern Montana could also see elevated fire-weather conditions on Friday, where prolonged dry and windy conditions will overlap with receptive fuels as a mid-level jet extending from Saskatchewan into Montana begins to exit the region and progress eastward. The most pronounced region for elevated conditions is expected to be across portions of the Snake River Plain and into the Upper Snake Region, where there is significant overlap between 20-25 kt surface winds, < 15% RH, and receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level shortwave trough moves onshore to the California coast and into Nevada tomorrow, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across northern Utah into southeastern Idaho and southwestern Wyoming. Elevated fire-weather conditions are also expected across portions of the Northwest, including northern California into southwestern Oregon, western portions of the Upper Snake River Region in Idaho, and far northern Montana. ...Northern Utah into Southern Idaho and Southwestern Wyoming... Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected as a mid-level trough and associated jet streak approaches the California coast. Hot, dry boundary-layer profiles, coupled with 35-40 kt mean wind speed estimates for storm motions, will result in little wetting rainfall occurring over receptive fuels. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms are possible further into Wyoming, but fuels in the region are less receptive to ignitions. There may be a chance for isolated dry thunderstorms in far southern Montana, but the threat appears to be too localized to include a highlight area at this time. ...Northwest... Elevated fire-weather conditions will persist across portions of southern Oregon and into northwestern California with the approaching trough. The strongest winds will likely be confined to the Fremont mountains and Modoc Plateau. Portions of northern Montana could also see elevated fire-weather conditions on Friday, where prolonged dry and windy conditions will overlap with receptive fuels as a mid-level jet extending from Saskatchewan into Montana begins to exit the region and progress eastward. The most pronounced region for elevated conditions is expected to be across portions of the Snake River Plain and into the Upper Snake Region, where there is significant overlap between 20-25 kt surface winds, < 15% RH, and receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level shortwave trough moves onshore to the California coast and into Nevada tomorrow, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across northern Utah into southeastern Idaho and southwestern Wyoming. Elevated fire-weather conditions are also expected across portions of the Northwest, including northern California into southwestern Oregon, western portions of the Upper Snake River Region in Idaho, and far northern Montana. ...Northern Utah into Southern Idaho and Southwestern Wyoming... Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected as a mid-level trough and associated jet streak approaches the California coast. Hot, dry boundary-layer profiles, coupled with 35-40 kt mean wind speed estimates for storm motions, will result in little wetting rainfall occurring over receptive fuels. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms are possible further into Wyoming, but fuels in the region are less receptive to ignitions. There may be a chance for isolated dry thunderstorms in far southern Montana, but the threat appears to be too localized to include a highlight area at this time. ...Northwest... Elevated fire-weather conditions will persist across portions of southern Oregon and into northwestern California with the approaching trough. The strongest winds will likely be confined to the Fremont mountains and Modoc Plateau. Portions of northern Montana could also see elevated fire-weather conditions on Friday, where prolonged dry and windy conditions will overlap with receptive fuels as a mid-level jet extending from Saskatchewan into Montana begins to exit the region and progress eastward. The most pronounced region for elevated conditions is expected to be across portions of the Snake River Plain and into the Upper Snake Region, where there is significant overlap between 20-25 kt surface winds, < 15% RH, and receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level shortwave trough moves onshore to the California coast and into Nevada tomorrow, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across northern Utah into southeastern Idaho and southwestern Wyoming. Elevated fire-weather conditions are also expected across portions of the Northwest, including northern California into southwestern Oregon, western portions of the Upper Snake River Region in Idaho, and far northern Montana. ...Northern Utah into Southern Idaho and Southwestern Wyoming... Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected as a mid-level trough and associated jet streak approaches the California coast. Hot, dry boundary-layer profiles, coupled with 35-40 kt mean wind speed estimates for storm motions, will result in little wetting rainfall occurring over receptive fuels. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms are possible further into Wyoming, but fuels in the region are less receptive to ignitions. There may be a chance for isolated dry thunderstorms in far southern Montana, but the threat appears to be too localized to include a highlight area at this time. ...Northwest... Elevated fire-weather conditions will persist across portions of southern Oregon and into northwestern California with the approaching trough. The strongest winds will likely be confined to the Fremont mountains and Modoc Plateau. Portions of northern Montana could also see elevated fire-weather conditions on Friday, where prolonged dry and windy conditions will overlap with receptive fuels as a mid-level jet extending from Saskatchewan into Montana begins to exit the region and progress eastward. The most pronounced region for elevated conditions is expected to be across portions of the Snake River Plain and into the Upper Snake Region, where there is significant overlap between 20-25 kt surface winds, < 15% RH, and receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level shortwave trough moves onshore to the California coast and into Nevada tomorrow, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across northern Utah into southeastern Idaho and southwestern Wyoming. Elevated fire-weather conditions are also expected across portions of the Northwest, including northern California into southwestern Oregon, western portions of the Upper Snake River Region in Idaho, and far northern Montana. ...Northern Utah into Southern Idaho and Southwestern Wyoming... Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected as a mid-level trough and associated jet streak approaches the California coast. Hot, dry boundary-layer profiles, coupled with 35-40 kt mean wind speed estimates for storm motions, will result in little wetting rainfall occurring over receptive fuels. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms are possible further into Wyoming, but fuels in the region are less receptive to ignitions. There may be a chance for isolated dry thunderstorms in far southern Montana, but the threat appears to be too localized to include a highlight area at this time. ...Northwest... Elevated fire-weather conditions will persist across portions of southern Oregon and into northwestern California with the approaching trough. The strongest winds will likely be confined to the Fremont mountains and Modoc Plateau. Portions of northern Montana could also see elevated fire-weather conditions on Friday, where prolonged dry and windy conditions will overlap with receptive fuels as a mid-level jet extending from Saskatchewan into Montana begins to exit the region and progress eastward. The most pronounced region for elevated conditions is expected to be across portions of the Snake River Plain and into the Upper Snake Region, where there is significant overlap between 20-25 kt surface winds, < 15% RH, and receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level shortwave trough moves onshore to the California coast and into Nevada tomorrow, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across northern Utah into southeastern Idaho and southwestern Wyoming. Elevated fire-weather conditions are also expected across portions of the Northwest, including northern California into southwestern Oregon, western portions of the Upper Snake River Region in Idaho, and far northern Montana. ...Northern Utah into Southern Idaho and Southwestern Wyoming... Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected as a mid-level trough and associated jet streak approaches the California coast. Hot, dry boundary-layer profiles, coupled with 35-40 kt mean wind speed estimates for storm motions, will result in little wetting rainfall occurring over receptive fuels. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms are possible further into Wyoming, but fuels in the region are less receptive to ignitions. There may be a chance for isolated dry thunderstorms in far southern Montana, but the threat appears to be too localized to include a highlight area at this time. ...Northwest... Elevated fire-weather conditions will persist across portions of southern Oregon and into northwestern California with the approaching trough. The strongest winds will likely be confined to the Fremont mountains and Modoc Plateau. Portions of northern Montana could also see elevated fire-weather conditions on Friday, where prolonged dry and windy conditions will overlap with receptive fuels as a mid-level jet extending from Saskatchewan into Montana begins to exit the region and progress eastward. The most pronounced region for elevated conditions is expected to be across portions of the Snake River Plain and into the Upper Snake Region, where there is significant overlap between 20-25 kt surface winds, < 15% RH, and receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level shortwave trough moves onshore to the California coast and into Nevada tomorrow, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across northern Utah into southeastern Idaho and southwestern Wyoming. Elevated fire-weather conditions are also expected across portions of the Northwest, including northern California into southwestern Oregon, western portions of the Upper Snake River Region in Idaho, and far northern Montana. ...Northern Utah into Southern Idaho and Southwestern Wyoming... Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected as a mid-level trough and associated jet streak approaches the California coast. Hot, dry boundary-layer profiles, coupled with 35-40 kt mean wind speed estimates for storm motions, will result in little wetting rainfall occurring over receptive fuels. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms are possible further into Wyoming, but fuels in the region are less receptive to ignitions. There may be a chance for isolated dry thunderstorms in far southern Montana, but the threat appears to be too localized to include a highlight area at this time. ...Northwest... Elevated fire-weather conditions will persist across portions of southern Oregon and into northwestern California with the approaching trough. The strongest winds will likely be confined to the Fremont mountains and Modoc Plateau. Portions of northern Montana could also see elevated fire-weather conditions on Friday, where prolonged dry and windy conditions will overlap with receptive fuels as a mid-level jet extending from Saskatchewan into Montana begins to exit the region and progress eastward. The most pronounced region for elevated conditions is expected to be across portions of the Snake River Plain and into the Upper Snake Region, where there is significant overlap between 20-25 kt surface winds, < 15% RH, and receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level shortwave trough moves onshore to the California coast and into Nevada tomorrow, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across northern Utah into southeastern Idaho and southwestern Wyoming. Elevated fire-weather conditions are also expected across portions of the Northwest, including northern California into southwestern Oregon, western portions of the Upper Snake River Region in Idaho, and far northern Montana. ...Northern Utah into Southern Idaho and Southwestern Wyoming... Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected as a mid-level trough and associated jet streak approaches the California coast. Hot, dry boundary-layer profiles, coupled with 35-40 kt mean wind speed estimates for storm motions, will result in little wetting rainfall occurring over receptive fuels. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms are possible further into Wyoming, but fuels in the region are less receptive to ignitions. There may be a chance for isolated dry thunderstorms in far southern Montana, but the threat appears to be too localized to include a highlight area at this time. ...Northwest... Elevated fire-weather conditions will persist across portions of southern Oregon and into northwestern California with the approaching trough. The strongest winds will likely be confined to the Fremont mountains and Modoc Plateau. Portions of northern Montana could also see elevated fire-weather conditions on Friday, where prolonged dry and windy conditions will overlap with receptive fuels as a mid-level jet extending from Saskatchewan into Montana begins to exit the region and progress eastward. The most pronounced region for elevated conditions is expected to be across portions of the Snake River Plain and into the Upper Snake Region, where there is significant overlap between 20-25 kt surface winds, < 15% RH, and receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level shortwave trough moves onshore to the California coast and into Nevada tomorrow, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across northern Utah into southeastern Idaho and southwestern Wyoming. Elevated fire-weather conditions are also expected across portions of the Northwest, including northern California into southwestern Oregon, western portions of the Upper Snake River Region in Idaho, and far northern Montana. ...Northern Utah into Southern Idaho and Southwestern Wyoming... Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected as a mid-level trough and associated jet streak approaches the California coast. Hot, dry boundary-layer profiles, coupled with 35-40 kt mean wind speed estimates for storm motions, will result in little wetting rainfall occurring over receptive fuels. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms are possible further into Wyoming, but fuels in the region are less receptive to ignitions. There may be a chance for isolated dry thunderstorms in far southern Montana, but the threat appears to be too localized to include a highlight area at this time. ...Northwest... Elevated fire-weather conditions will persist across portions of southern Oregon and into northwestern California with the approaching trough. The strongest winds will likely be confined to the Fremont mountains and Modoc Plateau. Portions of northern Montana could also see elevated fire-weather conditions on Friday, where prolonged dry and windy conditions will overlap with receptive fuels as a mid-level jet extending from Saskatchewan into Montana begins to exit the region and progress eastward. The most pronounced region for elevated conditions is expected to be across portions of the Snake River Plain and into the Upper Snake Region, where there is significant overlap between 20-25 kt surface winds, < 15% RH, and receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level shortwave trough moves onshore to the California coast and into Nevada tomorrow, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across northern Utah into southeastern Idaho and southwestern Wyoming. Elevated fire-weather conditions are also expected across portions of the Northwest, including northern California into southwestern Oregon, western portions of the Upper Snake River Region in Idaho, and far northern Montana. ...Northern Utah into Southern Idaho and Southwestern Wyoming... Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected as a mid-level trough and associated jet streak approaches the California coast. Hot, dry boundary-layer profiles, coupled with 35-40 kt mean wind speed estimates for storm motions, will result in little wetting rainfall occurring over receptive fuels. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms are possible further into Wyoming, but fuels in the region are less receptive to ignitions. There may be a chance for isolated dry thunderstorms in far southern Montana, but the threat appears to be too localized to include a highlight area at this time. ...Northwest... Elevated fire-weather conditions will persist across portions of southern Oregon and into northwestern California with the approaching trough. The strongest winds will likely be confined to the Fremont mountains and Modoc Plateau. Portions of northern Montana could also see elevated fire-weather conditions on Friday, where prolonged dry and windy conditions will overlap with receptive fuels as a mid-level jet extending from Saskatchewan into Montana begins to exit the region and progress eastward. The most pronounced region for elevated conditions is expected to be across portions of the Snake River Plain and into the Upper Snake Region, where there is significant overlap between 20-25 kt surface winds, < 15% RH, and receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more