Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN ND INTO NORTHWEST MN...PARTS OF WY INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST AZ...NORTHEAST NV INTO NORTHWEST UT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota during the afternoon and evening. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible across parts of Wyoming into the northern High Plains, south-central and southeast Arizona, and northeast Nevada into northwest Utah. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move across the northern Rockies/High Plains and Canadian Prairies on Friday. Immediately ahead of this trough, one or more lower amplitude shortwave troughs may eject northeastward across the Dakotas. Continued deamplification of a persistent upper ridge over the Southwest is expected, as a shortwave trough moves inland over California and eventually into the Great Basin. Farther east, an upper trough will persist across parts of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley, with another upper trough expected to shift slowly eastward across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. ...Eastern ND into northwest MN... A relatively narrow corridor of moderate to strong destabilization (with MLCAPE increasing to near or above 2500 J/kg) is expected from eastern ND into northwest MN Friday afternoon, along/east of a cold front. While stronger large-scale ascent is expected to remain displaced north of the international border, isolated storm development will be possible during the late afternoon into the early evening. Effective shear of 30-40 kt will conditionally support some storm organization, and a supercell or two will be possible initially, with a threat of hail, localized damaging gusts, and possibly a tornado. A moderate low-level jet could support increasing storm coverage through the evening. While there may be a tendency for convection to become increasingly elevated with time, an isolated severe-storm threat could persist into Friday night. ...WY into parts of the northern High Plains... Some modest low-level moistening will be possible into parts of WY and western SD on Friday afternoon, though guidance varies regarding the magnitude and timing of this moisture return and related destabilization. There will be some potential for relatively high-based convection to develop during the afternoon and evening, potentially aided by any low-amplitude shortwaves ejecting northeastward ahead of the primary upper trough. One or more clusters capable of isolated severe gusts could move across parts of WY into western SD and adjacent portions of extreme southeast MT and northwest NE. ...Arizona... Strong thunderstorms will again be possible across parts of central/southern AZ on Friday. Steering flow may tend to be a bit weaker and more northerly compared to previous days, which would limit the southwestern extent of the severe threat. However, depending on the magnitude of destabilization in the wake of potentially extensive convection on D1/Thursday, isolated strong to severe outflow gusts will be possible during the afternoon closer to the Rim, and potentially into lower elevations during the evening. ...Northeast NV into western UT... High-based thunderstorm development is again expected across parts of NV into western UT Friday afternoon into the evening, in advance of the shortwave trough moving into CA. Moisture and instability are forecast to be weaker compared to D1/Thursday, but isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible with any deeper convection. A Marginal Risk has been added where confidence is currently greatest in storm coverage within a relatively favorable downburst environment. ..Dean.. 07/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN ND INTO NORTHWEST MN...PARTS OF WY INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST AZ...NORTHEAST NV INTO NORTHWEST UT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota during the afternoon and evening. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible across parts of Wyoming into the northern High Plains, south-central and southeast Arizona, and northeast Nevada into northwest Utah. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move across the northern Rockies/High Plains and Canadian Prairies on Friday. Immediately ahead of this trough, one or more lower amplitude shortwave troughs may eject northeastward across the Dakotas. Continued deamplification of a persistent upper ridge over the Southwest is expected, as a shortwave trough moves inland over California and eventually into the Great Basin. Farther east, an upper trough will persist across parts of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley, with another upper trough expected to shift slowly eastward across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. ...Eastern ND into northwest MN... A relatively narrow corridor of moderate to strong destabilization (with MLCAPE increasing to near or above 2500 J/kg) is expected from eastern ND into northwest MN Friday afternoon, along/east of a cold front. While stronger large-scale ascent is expected to remain displaced north of the international border, isolated storm development will be possible during the late afternoon into the early evening. Effective shear of 30-40 kt will conditionally support some storm organization, and a supercell or two will be possible initially, with a threat of hail, localized damaging gusts, and possibly a tornado. A moderate low-level jet could support increasing storm coverage through the evening. While there may be a tendency for convection to become increasingly elevated with time, an isolated severe-storm threat could persist into Friday night. ...WY into parts of the northern High Plains... Some modest low-level moistening will be possible into parts of WY and western SD on Friday afternoon, though guidance varies regarding the magnitude and timing of this moisture return and related destabilization. There will be some potential for relatively high-based convection to develop during the afternoon and evening, potentially aided by any low-amplitude shortwaves ejecting northeastward ahead of the primary upper trough. One or more clusters capable of isolated severe gusts could move across parts of WY into western SD and adjacent portions of extreme southeast MT and northwest NE. ...Arizona... Strong thunderstorms will again be possible across parts of central/southern AZ on Friday. Steering flow may tend to be a bit weaker and more northerly compared to previous days, which would limit the southwestern extent of the severe threat. However, depending on the magnitude of destabilization in the wake of potentially extensive convection on D1/Thursday, isolated strong to severe outflow gusts will be possible during the afternoon closer to the Rim, and potentially into lower elevations during the evening. ...Northeast NV into western UT... High-based thunderstorm development is again expected across parts of NV into western UT Friday afternoon into the evening, in advance of the shortwave trough moving into CA. Moisture and instability are forecast to be weaker compared to D1/Thursday, but isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible with any deeper convection. A Marginal Risk has been added where confidence is currently greatest in storm coverage within a relatively favorable downburst environment. ..Dean.. 07/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN ND INTO NORTHWEST MN...PARTS OF WY INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST AZ...NORTHEAST NV INTO NORTHWEST UT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota during the afternoon and evening. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible across parts of Wyoming into the northern High Plains, south-central and southeast Arizona, and northeast Nevada into northwest Utah. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move across the northern Rockies/High Plains and Canadian Prairies on Friday. Immediately ahead of this trough, one or more lower amplitude shortwave troughs may eject northeastward across the Dakotas. Continued deamplification of a persistent upper ridge over the Southwest is expected, as a shortwave trough moves inland over California and eventually into the Great Basin. Farther east, an upper trough will persist across parts of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley, with another upper trough expected to shift slowly eastward across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. ...Eastern ND into northwest MN... A relatively narrow corridor of moderate to strong destabilization (with MLCAPE increasing to near or above 2500 J/kg) is expected from eastern ND into northwest MN Friday afternoon, along/east of a cold front. While stronger large-scale ascent is expected to remain displaced north of the international border, isolated storm development will be possible during the late afternoon into the early evening. Effective shear of 30-40 kt will conditionally support some storm organization, and a supercell or two will be possible initially, with a threat of hail, localized damaging gusts, and possibly a tornado. A moderate low-level jet could support increasing storm coverage through the evening. While there may be a tendency for convection to become increasingly elevated with time, an isolated severe-storm threat could persist into Friday night. ...WY into parts of the northern High Plains... Some modest low-level moistening will be possible into parts of WY and western SD on Friday afternoon, though guidance varies regarding the magnitude and timing of this moisture return and related destabilization. There will be some potential for relatively high-based convection to develop during the afternoon and evening, potentially aided by any low-amplitude shortwaves ejecting northeastward ahead of the primary upper trough. One or more clusters capable of isolated severe gusts could move across parts of WY into western SD and adjacent portions of extreme southeast MT and northwest NE. ...Arizona... Strong thunderstorms will again be possible across parts of central/southern AZ on Friday. Steering flow may tend to be a bit weaker and more northerly compared to previous days, which would limit the southwestern extent of the severe threat. However, depending on the magnitude of destabilization in the wake of potentially extensive convection on D1/Thursday, isolated strong to severe outflow gusts will be possible during the afternoon closer to the Rim, and potentially into lower elevations during the evening. ...Northeast NV into western UT... High-based thunderstorm development is again expected across parts of NV into western UT Friday afternoon into the evening, in advance of the shortwave trough moving into CA. Moisture and instability are forecast to be weaker compared to D1/Thursday, but isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible with any deeper convection. A Marginal Risk has been added where confidence is currently greatest in storm coverage within a relatively favorable downburst environment. ..Dean.. 07/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN ND INTO NORTHWEST MN...PARTS OF WY INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST AZ...NORTHEAST NV INTO NORTHWEST UT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota during the afternoon and evening. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible across parts of Wyoming into the northern High Plains, south-central and southeast Arizona, and northeast Nevada into northwest Utah. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move across the northern Rockies/High Plains and Canadian Prairies on Friday. Immediately ahead of this trough, one or more lower amplitude shortwave troughs may eject northeastward across the Dakotas. Continued deamplification of a persistent upper ridge over the Southwest is expected, as a shortwave trough moves inland over California and eventually into the Great Basin. Farther east, an upper trough will persist across parts of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley, with another upper trough expected to shift slowly eastward across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. ...Eastern ND into northwest MN... A relatively narrow corridor of moderate to strong destabilization (with MLCAPE increasing to near or above 2500 J/kg) is expected from eastern ND into northwest MN Friday afternoon, along/east of a cold front. While stronger large-scale ascent is expected to remain displaced north of the international border, isolated storm development will be possible during the late afternoon into the early evening. Effective shear of 30-40 kt will conditionally support some storm organization, and a supercell or two will be possible initially, with a threat of hail, localized damaging gusts, and possibly a tornado. A moderate low-level jet could support increasing storm coverage through the evening. While there may be a tendency for convection to become increasingly elevated with time, an isolated severe-storm threat could persist into Friday night. ...WY into parts of the northern High Plains... Some modest low-level moistening will be possible into parts of WY and western SD on Friday afternoon, though guidance varies regarding the magnitude and timing of this moisture return and related destabilization. There will be some potential for relatively high-based convection to develop during the afternoon and evening, potentially aided by any low-amplitude shortwaves ejecting northeastward ahead of the primary upper trough. One or more clusters capable of isolated severe gusts could move across parts of WY into western SD and adjacent portions of extreme southeast MT and northwest NE. ...Arizona... Strong thunderstorms will again be possible across parts of central/southern AZ on Friday. Steering flow may tend to be a bit weaker and more northerly compared to previous days, which would limit the southwestern extent of the severe threat. However, depending on the magnitude of destabilization in the wake of potentially extensive convection on D1/Thursday, isolated strong to severe outflow gusts will be possible during the afternoon closer to the Rim, and potentially into lower elevations during the evening. ...Northeast NV into western UT... High-based thunderstorm development is again expected across parts of NV into western UT Friday afternoon into the evening, in advance of the shortwave trough moving into CA. Moisture and instability are forecast to be weaker compared to D1/Thursday, but isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible with any deeper convection. A Marginal Risk has been added where confidence is currently greatest in storm coverage within a relatively favorable downburst environment. ..Dean.. 07/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN ND INTO NORTHWEST MN...PARTS OF WY INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST AZ...NORTHEAST NV INTO NORTHWEST UT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota during the afternoon and evening. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible across parts of Wyoming into the northern High Plains, south-central and southeast Arizona, and northeast Nevada into northwest Utah. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move across the northern Rockies/High Plains and Canadian Prairies on Friday. Immediately ahead of this trough, one or more lower amplitude shortwave troughs may eject northeastward across the Dakotas. Continued deamplification of a persistent upper ridge over the Southwest is expected, as a shortwave trough moves inland over California and eventually into the Great Basin. Farther east, an upper trough will persist across parts of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley, with another upper trough expected to shift slowly eastward across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. ...Eastern ND into northwest MN... A relatively narrow corridor of moderate to strong destabilization (with MLCAPE increasing to near or above 2500 J/kg) is expected from eastern ND into northwest MN Friday afternoon, along/east of a cold front. While stronger large-scale ascent is expected to remain displaced north of the international border, isolated storm development will be possible during the late afternoon into the early evening. Effective shear of 30-40 kt will conditionally support some storm organization, and a supercell or two will be possible initially, with a threat of hail, localized damaging gusts, and possibly a tornado. A moderate low-level jet could support increasing storm coverage through the evening. While there may be a tendency for convection to become increasingly elevated with time, an isolated severe-storm threat could persist into Friday night. ...WY into parts of the northern High Plains... Some modest low-level moistening will be possible into parts of WY and western SD on Friday afternoon, though guidance varies regarding the magnitude and timing of this moisture return and related destabilization. There will be some potential for relatively high-based convection to develop during the afternoon and evening, potentially aided by any low-amplitude shortwaves ejecting northeastward ahead of the primary upper trough. One or more clusters capable of isolated severe gusts could move across parts of WY into western SD and adjacent portions of extreme southeast MT and northwest NE. ...Arizona... Strong thunderstorms will again be possible across parts of central/southern AZ on Friday. Steering flow may tend to be a bit weaker and more northerly compared to previous days, which would limit the southwestern extent of the severe threat. However, depending on the magnitude of destabilization in the wake of potentially extensive convection on D1/Thursday, isolated strong to severe outflow gusts will be possible during the afternoon closer to the Rim, and potentially into lower elevations during the evening. ...Northeast NV into western UT... High-based thunderstorm development is again expected across parts of NV into western UT Friday afternoon into the evening, in advance of the shortwave trough moving into CA. Moisture and instability are forecast to be weaker compared to D1/Thursday, but isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible with any deeper convection. A Marginal Risk has been added where confidence is currently greatest in storm coverage within a relatively favorable downburst environment. ..Dean.. 07/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN ND INTO NORTHWEST MN...PARTS OF WY INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST AZ...NORTHEAST NV INTO NORTHWEST UT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota during the afternoon and evening. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible across parts of Wyoming into the northern High Plains, south-central and southeast Arizona, and northeast Nevada into northwest Utah. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move across the northern Rockies/High Plains and Canadian Prairies on Friday. Immediately ahead of this trough, one or more lower amplitude shortwave troughs may eject northeastward across the Dakotas. Continued deamplification of a persistent upper ridge over the Southwest is expected, as a shortwave trough moves inland over California and eventually into the Great Basin. Farther east, an upper trough will persist across parts of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley, with another upper trough expected to shift slowly eastward across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. ...Eastern ND into northwest MN... A relatively narrow corridor of moderate to strong destabilization (with MLCAPE increasing to near or above 2500 J/kg) is expected from eastern ND into northwest MN Friday afternoon, along/east of a cold front. While stronger large-scale ascent is expected to remain displaced north of the international border, isolated storm development will be possible during the late afternoon into the early evening. Effective shear of 30-40 kt will conditionally support some storm organization, and a supercell or two will be possible initially, with a threat of hail, localized damaging gusts, and possibly a tornado. A moderate low-level jet could support increasing storm coverage through the evening. While there may be a tendency for convection to become increasingly elevated with time, an isolated severe-storm threat could persist into Friday night. ...WY into parts of the northern High Plains... Some modest low-level moistening will be possible into parts of WY and western SD on Friday afternoon, though guidance varies regarding the magnitude and timing of this moisture return and related destabilization. There will be some potential for relatively high-based convection to develop during the afternoon and evening, potentially aided by any low-amplitude shortwaves ejecting northeastward ahead of the primary upper trough. One or more clusters capable of isolated severe gusts could move across parts of WY into western SD and adjacent portions of extreme southeast MT and northwest NE. ...Arizona... Strong thunderstorms will again be possible across parts of central/southern AZ on Friday. Steering flow may tend to be a bit weaker and more northerly compared to previous days, which would limit the southwestern extent of the severe threat. However, depending on the magnitude of destabilization in the wake of potentially extensive convection on D1/Thursday, isolated strong to severe outflow gusts will be possible during the afternoon closer to the Rim, and potentially into lower elevations during the evening. ...Northeast NV into western UT... High-based thunderstorm development is again expected across parts of NV into western UT Friday afternoon into the evening, in advance of the shortwave trough moving into CA. Moisture and instability are forecast to be weaker compared to D1/Thursday, but isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible with any deeper convection. A Marginal Risk has been added where confidence is currently greatest in storm coverage within a relatively favorable downburst environment. ..Dean.. 07/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN ND INTO NORTHWEST MN...PARTS OF WY INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST AZ...NORTHEAST NV INTO NORTHWEST UT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota during the afternoon and evening. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible across parts of Wyoming into the northern High Plains, south-central and southeast Arizona, and northeast Nevada into northwest Utah. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move across the northern Rockies/High Plains and Canadian Prairies on Friday. Immediately ahead of this trough, one or more lower amplitude shortwave troughs may eject northeastward across the Dakotas. Continued deamplification of a persistent upper ridge over the Southwest is expected, as a shortwave trough moves inland over California and eventually into the Great Basin. Farther east, an upper trough will persist across parts of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley, with another upper trough expected to shift slowly eastward across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. ...Eastern ND into northwest MN... A relatively narrow corridor of moderate to strong destabilization (with MLCAPE increasing to near or above 2500 J/kg) is expected from eastern ND into northwest MN Friday afternoon, along/east of a cold front. While stronger large-scale ascent is expected to remain displaced north of the international border, isolated storm development will be possible during the late afternoon into the early evening. Effective shear of 30-40 kt will conditionally support some storm organization, and a supercell or two will be possible initially, with a threat of hail, localized damaging gusts, and possibly a tornado. A moderate low-level jet could support increasing storm coverage through the evening. While there may be a tendency for convection to become increasingly elevated with time, an isolated severe-storm threat could persist into Friday night. ...WY into parts of the northern High Plains... Some modest low-level moistening will be possible into parts of WY and western SD on Friday afternoon, though guidance varies regarding the magnitude and timing of this moisture return and related destabilization. There will be some potential for relatively high-based convection to develop during the afternoon and evening, potentially aided by any low-amplitude shortwaves ejecting northeastward ahead of the primary upper trough. One or more clusters capable of isolated severe gusts could move across parts of WY into western SD and adjacent portions of extreme southeast MT and northwest NE. ...Arizona... Strong thunderstorms will again be possible across parts of central/southern AZ on Friday. Steering flow may tend to be a bit weaker and more northerly compared to previous days, which would limit the southwestern extent of the severe threat. However, depending on the magnitude of destabilization in the wake of potentially extensive convection on D1/Thursday, isolated strong to severe outflow gusts will be possible during the afternoon closer to the Rim, and potentially into lower elevations during the evening. ...Northeast NV into western UT... High-based thunderstorm development is again expected across parts of NV into western UT Friday afternoon into the evening, in advance of the shortwave trough moving into CA. Moisture and instability are forecast to be weaker compared to D1/Thursday, but isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible with any deeper convection. A Marginal Risk has been added where confidence is currently greatest in storm coverage within a relatively favorable downburst environment. ..Dean.. 07/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of 60-75 mph gusts are forecast across portions of central and northeast Montana late this afternoon into the evening. ...Montana/Northern Rockies to Great Basin... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper-level trough moving east from British Columbia toward Alberta/Saskatchewan, with strengthening cyclonic westerlies overspreading the northern Rockies/Montana. Model guidance continues to indicate scattered thunderstorm development initiating off the higher terrain this afternoon, and in advance of a cold front across central Montana. Forecast soundings shows large to very large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads (40-60 F) later this afternoon. A downward mixing of 30-40+ kt ambient southwesterly to westerly flow in the 700-500 mb layer may contribute to severe-caliber wind gusts in consolidating outflows, as convection spreads eastward into this evening toward eastern Montana and possibly western North Dakota. Farther south over the Great Basin, model guidance appears to be trending towards greater storm coverage (numerous) and associated ability for storm outflow. The 12 UTC HREF in particular (and recent HRRR runs) shows a potential corridor of outflow surging convection from northeast NV into northwest and northern UT during the 23-04 UTC period. Some consideration for a Slight Risk was given but uncertainty precludes an upgrade at this time. ...Arizona... Lingering early day outflow/cloud cover via yesterday's relatively active convection should generally abate by afternoon. As the boundary layer diurnally warms and destabilizes, thunderstorms are again likely to initiate across the Mogollon Rim and adjacent mountains of southwest New Mexico this afternoon. Given the position and movement of the mid-level high, somewhat stronger (around 15 kt) northeasterly steering flow will remain focused across southeast into adjacent portions of central Arizona. Severe gusts will be possible later this afternoon into the mid-late evening as storms progress south-southwestward across the lower deserts of central and southern AZ. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States... Midday visible-satellite imagery shows and extensive cloud shield across much of NC into the southern half of VA. The 12 UTC GSO raob featuring poor lapse rates and meager buoyancy contrasted with the MHX raob (2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and a much more moisture-rich airmass. Thinner cloud cover near the coast will aid in widely scattered storms developing this afternoon largely removed from the southern fringe of large-scale troughing over the Mid-Atlantic states/Northeast. An isolated risk for locally severe gusts may develop for several hours this afternoon into the early evening. Farther north, breaks and thinning of cloud cover will promote stronger heating across northern VA into the northern half of the Chesapeake Bay vicinity than areas farther south. Widely scattered storms are forecast to develop per the latest 12 UTC HREF guidance within this corridor by mid-late afternoon. A belt of 40-50 kt southwesterly 500-mb flow may enhance storm vigor, and a few downdrafts may yield a risk for isolated 45-60 mph gusts capable of localized damage. ...Upper Texas Coast and Southwest Louisiana... Extensive showers and some thunderstorms are ongoing along the Texas coast early today. Influenced by a weak mid-level disturbance, some guidance suggests that a strengthening of low-level winds/shear may occur. However, mid-level winds will remain weak, while the aforementioned convection should considerably limit destabilization inland. These factors seem likely to minimize the potential for anything beyond a very weak/transient circulation. ..Smith/Karstens.. 07/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of 60-75 mph gusts are forecast across portions of central and northeast Montana late this afternoon into the evening. ...Montana/Northern Rockies to Great Basin... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper-level trough moving east from British Columbia toward Alberta/Saskatchewan, with strengthening cyclonic westerlies overspreading the northern Rockies/Montana. Model guidance continues to indicate scattered thunderstorm development initiating off the higher terrain this afternoon, and in advance of a cold front across central Montana. Forecast soundings shows large to very large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads (40-60 F) later this afternoon. A downward mixing of 30-40+ kt ambient southwesterly to westerly flow in the 700-500 mb layer may contribute to severe-caliber wind gusts in consolidating outflows, as convection spreads eastward into this evening toward eastern Montana and possibly western North Dakota. Farther south over the Great Basin, model guidance appears to be trending towards greater storm coverage (numerous) and associated ability for storm outflow. The 12 UTC HREF in particular (and recent HRRR runs) shows a potential corridor of outflow surging convection from northeast NV into northwest and northern UT during the 23-04 UTC period. Some consideration for a Slight Risk was given but uncertainty precludes an upgrade at this time. ...Arizona... Lingering early day outflow/cloud cover via yesterday's relatively active convection should generally abate by afternoon. As the boundary layer diurnally warms and destabilizes, thunderstorms are again likely to initiate across the Mogollon Rim and adjacent mountains of southwest New Mexico this afternoon. Given the position and movement of the mid-level high, somewhat stronger (around 15 kt) northeasterly steering flow will remain focused across southeast into adjacent portions of central Arizona. Severe gusts will be possible later this afternoon into the mid-late evening as storms progress south-southwestward across the lower deserts of central and southern AZ. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States... Midday visible-satellite imagery shows and extensive cloud shield across much of NC into the southern half of VA. The 12 UTC GSO raob featuring poor lapse rates and meager buoyancy contrasted with the MHX raob (2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and a much more moisture-rich airmass. Thinner cloud cover near the coast will aid in widely scattered storms developing this afternoon largely removed from the southern fringe of large-scale troughing over the Mid-Atlantic states/Northeast. An isolated risk for locally severe gusts may develop for several hours this afternoon into the early evening. Farther north, breaks and thinning of cloud cover will promote stronger heating across northern VA into the northern half of the Chesapeake Bay vicinity than areas farther south. Widely scattered storms are forecast to develop per the latest 12 UTC HREF guidance within this corridor by mid-late afternoon. A belt of 40-50 kt southwesterly 500-mb flow may enhance storm vigor, and a few downdrafts may yield a risk for isolated 45-60 mph gusts capable of localized damage. ...Upper Texas Coast and Southwest Louisiana... Extensive showers and some thunderstorms are ongoing along the Texas coast early today. Influenced by a weak mid-level disturbance, some guidance suggests that a strengthening of low-level winds/shear may occur. However, mid-level winds will remain weak, while the aforementioned convection should considerably limit destabilization inland. These factors seem likely to minimize the potential for anything beyond a very weak/transient circulation. ..Smith/Karstens.. 07/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of 60-75 mph gusts are forecast across portions of central and northeast Montana late this afternoon into the evening. ...Montana/Northern Rockies to Great Basin... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper-level trough moving east from British Columbia toward Alberta/Saskatchewan, with strengthening cyclonic westerlies overspreading the northern Rockies/Montana. Model guidance continues to indicate scattered thunderstorm development initiating off the higher terrain this afternoon, and in advance of a cold front across central Montana. Forecast soundings shows large to very large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads (40-60 F) later this afternoon. A downward mixing of 30-40+ kt ambient southwesterly to westerly flow in the 700-500 mb layer may contribute to severe-caliber wind gusts in consolidating outflows, as convection spreads eastward into this evening toward eastern Montana and possibly western North Dakota. Farther south over the Great Basin, model guidance appears to be trending towards greater storm coverage (numerous) and associated ability for storm outflow. The 12 UTC HREF in particular (and recent HRRR runs) shows a potential corridor of outflow surging convection from northeast NV into northwest and northern UT during the 23-04 UTC period. Some consideration for a Slight Risk was given but uncertainty precludes an upgrade at this time. ...Arizona... Lingering early day outflow/cloud cover via yesterday's relatively active convection should generally abate by afternoon. As the boundary layer diurnally warms and destabilizes, thunderstorms are again likely to initiate across the Mogollon Rim and adjacent mountains of southwest New Mexico this afternoon. Given the position and movement of the mid-level high, somewhat stronger (around 15 kt) northeasterly steering flow will remain focused across southeast into adjacent portions of central Arizona. Severe gusts will be possible later this afternoon into the mid-late evening as storms progress south-southwestward across the lower deserts of central and southern AZ. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States... Midday visible-satellite imagery shows and extensive cloud shield across much of NC into the southern half of VA. The 12 UTC GSO raob featuring poor lapse rates and meager buoyancy contrasted with the MHX raob (2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and a much more moisture-rich airmass. Thinner cloud cover near the coast will aid in widely scattered storms developing this afternoon largely removed from the southern fringe of large-scale troughing over the Mid-Atlantic states/Northeast. An isolated risk for locally severe gusts may develop for several hours this afternoon into the early evening. Farther north, breaks and thinning of cloud cover will promote stronger heating across northern VA into the northern half of the Chesapeake Bay vicinity than areas farther south. Widely scattered storms are forecast to develop per the latest 12 UTC HREF guidance within this corridor by mid-late afternoon. A belt of 40-50 kt southwesterly 500-mb flow may enhance storm vigor, and a few downdrafts may yield a risk for isolated 45-60 mph gusts capable of localized damage. ...Upper Texas Coast and Southwest Louisiana... Extensive showers and some thunderstorms are ongoing along the Texas coast early today. Influenced by a weak mid-level disturbance, some guidance suggests that a strengthening of low-level winds/shear may occur. However, mid-level winds will remain weak, while the aforementioned convection should considerably limit destabilization inland. These factors seem likely to minimize the potential for anything beyond a very weak/transient circulation. ..Smith/Karstens.. 07/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of 60-75 mph gusts are forecast across portions of central and northeast Montana late this afternoon into the evening. ...Montana/Northern Rockies to Great Basin... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper-level trough moving east from British Columbia toward Alberta/Saskatchewan, with strengthening cyclonic westerlies overspreading the northern Rockies/Montana. Model guidance continues to indicate scattered thunderstorm development initiating off the higher terrain this afternoon, and in advance of a cold front across central Montana. Forecast soundings shows large to very large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads (40-60 F) later this afternoon. A downward mixing of 30-40+ kt ambient southwesterly to westerly flow in the 700-500 mb layer may contribute to severe-caliber wind gusts in consolidating outflows, as convection spreads eastward into this evening toward eastern Montana and possibly western North Dakota. Farther south over the Great Basin, model guidance appears to be trending towards greater storm coverage (numerous) and associated ability for storm outflow. The 12 UTC HREF in particular (and recent HRRR runs) shows a potential corridor of outflow surging convection from northeast NV into northwest and northern UT during the 23-04 UTC period. Some consideration for a Slight Risk was given but uncertainty precludes an upgrade at this time. ...Arizona... Lingering early day outflow/cloud cover via yesterday's relatively active convection should generally abate by afternoon. As the boundary layer diurnally warms and destabilizes, thunderstorms are again likely to initiate across the Mogollon Rim and adjacent mountains of southwest New Mexico this afternoon. Given the position and movement of the mid-level high, somewhat stronger (around 15 kt) northeasterly steering flow will remain focused across southeast into adjacent portions of central Arizona. Severe gusts will be possible later this afternoon into the mid-late evening as storms progress south-southwestward across the lower deserts of central and southern AZ. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States... Midday visible-satellite imagery shows and extensive cloud shield across much of NC into the southern half of VA. The 12 UTC GSO raob featuring poor lapse rates and meager buoyancy contrasted with the MHX raob (2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and a much more moisture-rich airmass. Thinner cloud cover near the coast will aid in widely scattered storms developing this afternoon largely removed from the southern fringe of large-scale troughing over the Mid-Atlantic states/Northeast. An isolated risk for locally severe gusts may develop for several hours this afternoon into the early evening. Farther north, breaks and thinning of cloud cover will promote stronger heating across northern VA into the northern half of the Chesapeake Bay vicinity than areas farther south. Widely scattered storms are forecast to develop per the latest 12 UTC HREF guidance within this corridor by mid-late afternoon. A belt of 40-50 kt southwesterly 500-mb flow may enhance storm vigor, and a few downdrafts may yield a risk for isolated 45-60 mph gusts capable of localized damage. ...Upper Texas Coast and Southwest Louisiana... Extensive showers and some thunderstorms are ongoing along the Texas coast early today. Influenced by a weak mid-level disturbance, some guidance suggests that a strengthening of low-level winds/shear may occur. However, mid-level winds will remain weak, while the aforementioned convection should considerably limit destabilization inland. These factors seem likely to minimize the potential for anything beyond a very weak/transient circulation. ..Smith/Karstens.. 07/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of 60-75 mph gusts are forecast across portions of central and northeast Montana late this afternoon into the evening. ...Montana/Northern Rockies to Great Basin... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper-level trough moving east from British Columbia toward Alberta/Saskatchewan, with strengthening cyclonic westerlies overspreading the northern Rockies/Montana. Model guidance continues to indicate scattered thunderstorm development initiating off the higher terrain this afternoon, and in advance of a cold front across central Montana. Forecast soundings shows large to very large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads (40-60 F) later this afternoon. A downward mixing of 30-40+ kt ambient southwesterly to westerly flow in the 700-500 mb layer may contribute to severe-caliber wind gusts in consolidating outflows, as convection spreads eastward into this evening toward eastern Montana and possibly western North Dakota. Farther south over the Great Basin, model guidance appears to be trending towards greater storm coverage (numerous) and associated ability for storm outflow. The 12 UTC HREF in particular (and recent HRRR runs) shows a potential corridor of outflow surging convection from northeast NV into northwest and northern UT during the 23-04 UTC period. Some consideration for a Slight Risk was given but uncertainty precludes an upgrade at this time. ...Arizona... Lingering early day outflow/cloud cover via yesterday's relatively active convection should generally abate by afternoon. As the boundary layer diurnally warms and destabilizes, thunderstorms are again likely to initiate across the Mogollon Rim and adjacent mountains of southwest New Mexico this afternoon. Given the position and movement of the mid-level high, somewhat stronger (around 15 kt) northeasterly steering flow will remain focused across southeast into adjacent portions of central Arizona. Severe gusts will be possible later this afternoon into the mid-late evening as storms progress south-southwestward across the lower deserts of central and southern AZ. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States... Midday visible-satellite imagery shows and extensive cloud shield across much of NC into the southern half of VA. The 12 UTC GSO raob featuring poor lapse rates and meager buoyancy contrasted with the MHX raob (2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and a much more moisture-rich airmass. Thinner cloud cover near the coast will aid in widely scattered storms developing this afternoon largely removed from the southern fringe of large-scale troughing over the Mid-Atlantic states/Northeast. An isolated risk for locally severe gusts may develop for several hours this afternoon into the early evening. Farther north, breaks and thinning of cloud cover will promote stronger heating across northern VA into the northern half of the Chesapeake Bay vicinity than areas farther south. Widely scattered storms are forecast to develop per the latest 12 UTC HREF guidance within this corridor by mid-late afternoon. A belt of 40-50 kt southwesterly 500-mb flow may enhance storm vigor, and a few downdrafts may yield a risk for isolated 45-60 mph gusts capable of localized damage. ...Upper Texas Coast and Southwest Louisiana... Extensive showers and some thunderstorms are ongoing along the Texas coast early today. Influenced by a weak mid-level disturbance, some guidance suggests that a strengthening of low-level winds/shear may occur. However, mid-level winds will remain weak, while the aforementioned convection should considerably limit destabilization inland. These factors seem likely to minimize the potential for anything beyond a very weak/transient circulation. ..Smith/Karstens.. 07/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of 60-75 mph gusts are forecast across portions of central and northeast Montana late this afternoon into the evening. ...Montana/Northern Rockies to Great Basin... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper-level trough moving east from British Columbia toward Alberta/Saskatchewan, with strengthening cyclonic westerlies overspreading the northern Rockies/Montana. Model guidance continues to indicate scattered thunderstorm development initiating off the higher terrain this afternoon, and in advance of a cold front across central Montana. Forecast soundings shows large to very large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads (40-60 F) later this afternoon. A downward mixing of 30-40+ kt ambient southwesterly to westerly flow in the 700-500 mb layer may contribute to severe-caliber wind gusts in consolidating outflows, as convection spreads eastward into this evening toward eastern Montana and possibly western North Dakota. Farther south over the Great Basin, model guidance appears to be trending towards greater storm coverage (numerous) and associated ability for storm outflow. The 12 UTC HREF in particular (and recent HRRR runs) shows a potential corridor of outflow surging convection from northeast NV into northwest and northern UT during the 23-04 UTC period. Some consideration for a Slight Risk was given but uncertainty precludes an upgrade at this time. ...Arizona... Lingering early day outflow/cloud cover via yesterday's relatively active convection should generally abate by afternoon. As the boundary layer diurnally warms and destabilizes, thunderstorms are again likely to initiate across the Mogollon Rim and adjacent mountains of southwest New Mexico this afternoon. Given the position and movement of the mid-level high, somewhat stronger (around 15 kt) northeasterly steering flow will remain focused across southeast into adjacent portions of central Arizona. Severe gusts will be possible later this afternoon into the mid-late evening as storms progress south-southwestward across the lower deserts of central and southern AZ. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States... Midday visible-satellite imagery shows and extensive cloud shield across much of NC into the southern half of VA. The 12 UTC GSO raob featuring poor lapse rates and meager buoyancy contrasted with the MHX raob (2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and a much more moisture-rich airmass. Thinner cloud cover near the coast will aid in widely scattered storms developing this afternoon largely removed from the southern fringe of large-scale troughing over the Mid-Atlantic states/Northeast. An isolated risk for locally severe gusts may develop for several hours this afternoon into the early evening. Farther north, breaks and thinning of cloud cover will promote stronger heating across northern VA into the northern half of the Chesapeake Bay vicinity than areas farther south. Widely scattered storms are forecast to develop per the latest 12 UTC HREF guidance within this corridor by mid-late afternoon. A belt of 40-50 kt southwesterly 500-mb flow may enhance storm vigor, and a few downdrafts may yield a risk for isolated 45-60 mph gusts capable of localized damage. ...Upper Texas Coast and Southwest Louisiana... Extensive showers and some thunderstorms are ongoing along the Texas coast early today. Influenced by a weak mid-level disturbance, some guidance suggests that a strengthening of low-level winds/shear may occur. However, mid-level winds will remain weak, while the aforementioned convection should considerably limit destabilization inland. These factors seem likely to minimize the potential for anything beyond a very weak/transient circulation. ..Smith/Karstens.. 07/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of 60-75 mph gusts are forecast across portions of central and northeast Montana late this afternoon into the evening. ...Montana/Northern Rockies to Great Basin... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper-level trough moving east from British Columbia toward Alberta/Saskatchewan, with strengthening cyclonic westerlies overspreading the northern Rockies/Montana. Model guidance continues to indicate scattered thunderstorm development initiating off the higher terrain this afternoon, and in advance of a cold front across central Montana. Forecast soundings shows large to very large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads (40-60 F) later this afternoon. A downward mixing of 30-40+ kt ambient southwesterly to westerly flow in the 700-500 mb layer may contribute to severe-caliber wind gusts in consolidating outflows, as convection spreads eastward into this evening toward eastern Montana and possibly western North Dakota. Farther south over the Great Basin, model guidance appears to be trending towards greater storm coverage (numerous) and associated ability for storm outflow. The 12 UTC HREF in particular (and recent HRRR runs) shows a potential corridor of outflow surging convection from northeast NV into northwest and northern UT during the 23-04 UTC period. Some consideration for a Slight Risk was given but uncertainty precludes an upgrade at this time. ...Arizona... Lingering early day outflow/cloud cover via yesterday's relatively active convection should generally abate by afternoon. As the boundary layer diurnally warms and destabilizes, thunderstorms are again likely to initiate across the Mogollon Rim and adjacent mountains of southwest New Mexico this afternoon. Given the position and movement of the mid-level high, somewhat stronger (around 15 kt) northeasterly steering flow will remain focused across southeast into adjacent portions of central Arizona. Severe gusts will be possible later this afternoon into the mid-late evening as storms progress south-southwestward across the lower deserts of central and southern AZ. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States... Midday visible-satellite imagery shows and extensive cloud shield across much of NC into the southern half of VA. The 12 UTC GSO raob featuring poor lapse rates and meager buoyancy contrasted with the MHX raob (2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and a much more moisture-rich airmass. Thinner cloud cover near the coast will aid in widely scattered storms developing this afternoon largely removed from the southern fringe of large-scale troughing over the Mid-Atlantic states/Northeast. An isolated risk for locally severe gusts may develop for several hours this afternoon into the early evening. Farther north, breaks and thinning of cloud cover will promote stronger heating across northern VA into the northern half of the Chesapeake Bay vicinity than areas farther south. Widely scattered storms are forecast to develop per the latest 12 UTC HREF guidance within this corridor by mid-late afternoon. A belt of 40-50 kt southwesterly 500-mb flow may enhance storm vigor, and a few downdrafts may yield a risk for isolated 45-60 mph gusts capable of localized damage. ...Upper Texas Coast and Southwest Louisiana... Extensive showers and some thunderstorms are ongoing along the Texas coast early today. Influenced by a weak mid-level disturbance, some guidance suggests that a strengthening of low-level winds/shear may occur. However, mid-level winds will remain weak, while the aforementioned convection should considerably limit destabilization inland. These factors seem likely to minimize the potential for anything beyond a very weak/transient circulation. ..Smith/Karstens.. 07/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of 60-75 mph gusts are forecast across portions of central and northeast Montana late this afternoon into the evening. ...Montana/Northern Rockies to Great Basin... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper-level trough moving east from British Columbia toward Alberta/Saskatchewan, with strengthening cyclonic westerlies overspreading the northern Rockies/Montana. Model guidance continues to indicate scattered thunderstorm development initiating off the higher terrain this afternoon, and in advance of a cold front across central Montana. Forecast soundings shows large to very large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads (40-60 F) later this afternoon. A downward mixing of 30-40+ kt ambient southwesterly to westerly flow in the 700-500 mb layer may contribute to severe-caliber wind gusts in consolidating outflows, as convection spreads eastward into this evening toward eastern Montana and possibly western North Dakota. Farther south over the Great Basin, model guidance appears to be trending towards greater storm coverage (numerous) and associated ability for storm outflow. The 12 UTC HREF in particular (and recent HRRR runs) shows a potential corridor of outflow surging convection from northeast NV into northwest and northern UT during the 23-04 UTC period. Some consideration for a Slight Risk was given but uncertainty precludes an upgrade at this time. ...Arizona... Lingering early day outflow/cloud cover via yesterday's relatively active convection should generally abate by afternoon. As the boundary layer diurnally warms and destabilizes, thunderstorms are again likely to initiate across the Mogollon Rim and adjacent mountains of southwest New Mexico this afternoon. Given the position and movement of the mid-level high, somewhat stronger (around 15 kt) northeasterly steering flow will remain focused across southeast into adjacent portions of central Arizona. Severe gusts will be possible later this afternoon into the mid-late evening as storms progress south-southwestward across the lower deserts of central and southern AZ. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States... Midday visible-satellite imagery shows and extensive cloud shield across much of NC into the southern half of VA. The 12 UTC GSO raob featuring poor lapse rates and meager buoyancy contrasted with the MHX raob (2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and a much more moisture-rich airmass. Thinner cloud cover near the coast will aid in widely scattered storms developing this afternoon largely removed from the southern fringe of large-scale troughing over the Mid-Atlantic states/Northeast. An isolated risk for locally severe gusts may develop for several hours this afternoon into the early evening. Farther north, breaks and thinning of cloud cover will promote stronger heating across northern VA into the northern half of the Chesapeake Bay vicinity than areas farther south. Widely scattered storms are forecast to develop per the latest 12 UTC HREF guidance within this corridor by mid-late afternoon. A belt of 40-50 kt southwesterly 500-mb flow may enhance storm vigor, and a few downdrafts may yield a risk for isolated 45-60 mph gusts capable of localized damage. ...Upper Texas Coast and Southwest Louisiana... Extensive showers and some thunderstorms are ongoing along the Texas coast early today. Influenced by a weak mid-level disturbance, some guidance suggests that a strengthening of low-level winds/shear may occur. However, mid-level winds will remain weak, while the aforementioned convection should considerably limit destabilization inland. These factors seem likely to minimize the potential for anything beyond a very weak/transient circulation. ..Smith/Karstens.. 07/25/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z A few minor changes to the Elevated highlights were made based on the latest guidance. The forecast is otherwise unchanged. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms are anticipated across portions of southern Idaho into southwestern Montana as an upper-level trough progresses eastward across the Northwest. Additionally, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across the southern Cascades, portions of northern Montana, and the northern Great Plains. ...Pacific Northwest... As an upper-level trough is forecast to progress eastward out of the Pacific Northwest and into Montana, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across southeastern Idaho and into southwestern Montana over receptive fuels. Some trimming of the previous forecast area, particularly over southwestern Idaho, was necessary after significant wetting rainfall occurred the previous day. Additionally, current forecast guidance suggests a mix of both wet and dry thunderstorms, precluding the introduction of a scattered dry thunder area despite widespread thunderstorm coverage. Forecast profiles across southwestern Montana show deep inverted-v boundary layers supportive of gusty thunderstorm outflow that could contribute to wildfire spread with both existing fires and new lightning ignitions. Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected to occur over the southern Cascades, especially where local gap flow enhanced winds could contribute to wildfire spread with existing fires. Some trimming of the previous forecast areas was necessary to account for wetting rainfall occurring the previous day, leaving fuels less receptive to ignition. Some elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible in portions of north-central Montana, but the overlap of stronger surface winds/low relative humidity and receptive fuels is somewhat narrow. ...Northern Great Plains... Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated, particularly along portions of western Montana and Wyoming, into eastern Nebraska and the Dakotas. Strong southerly flow, coupled with hot, dry boundary layer profiles, are expected to persist for much of the afternoon and into the evening. Fuels in this region will be at or exceed the 90th percentile for ERCs, but conditions are expected to remain below critical criteria for wind and relative humidity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z A few minor changes to the Elevated highlights were made based on the latest guidance. The forecast is otherwise unchanged. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms are anticipated across portions of southern Idaho into southwestern Montana as an upper-level trough progresses eastward across the Northwest. Additionally, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across the southern Cascades, portions of northern Montana, and the northern Great Plains. ...Pacific Northwest... As an upper-level trough is forecast to progress eastward out of the Pacific Northwest and into Montana, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across southeastern Idaho and into southwestern Montana over receptive fuels. Some trimming of the previous forecast area, particularly over southwestern Idaho, was necessary after significant wetting rainfall occurred the previous day. Additionally, current forecast guidance suggests a mix of both wet and dry thunderstorms, precluding the introduction of a scattered dry thunder area despite widespread thunderstorm coverage. Forecast profiles across southwestern Montana show deep inverted-v boundary layers supportive of gusty thunderstorm outflow that could contribute to wildfire spread with both existing fires and new lightning ignitions. Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected to occur over the southern Cascades, especially where local gap flow enhanced winds could contribute to wildfire spread with existing fires. Some trimming of the previous forecast areas was necessary to account for wetting rainfall occurring the previous day, leaving fuels less receptive to ignition. Some elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible in portions of north-central Montana, but the overlap of stronger surface winds/low relative humidity and receptive fuels is somewhat narrow. ...Northern Great Plains... Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated, particularly along portions of western Montana and Wyoming, into eastern Nebraska and the Dakotas. Strong southerly flow, coupled with hot, dry boundary layer profiles, are expected to persist for much of the afternoon and into the evening. Fuels in this region will be at or exceed the 90th percentile for ERCs, but conditions are expected to remain below critical criteria for wind and relative humidity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z A few minor changes to the Elevated highlights were made based on the latest guidance. The forecast is otherwise unchanged. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms are anticipated across portions of southern Idaho into southwestern Montana as an upper-level trough progresses eastward across the Northwest. Additionally, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across the southern Cascades, portions of northern Montana, and the northern Great Plains. ...Pacific Northwest... As an upper-level trough is forecast to progress eastward out of the Pacific Northwest and into Montana, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across southeastern Idaho and into southwestern Montana over receptive fuels. Some trimming of the previous forecast area, particularly over southwestern Idaho, was necessary after significant wetting rainfall occurred the previous day. Additionally, current forecast guidance suggests a mix of both wet and dry thunderstorms, precluding the introduction of a scattered dry thunder area despite widespread thunderstorm coverage. Forecast profiles across southwestern Montana show deep inverted-v boundary layers supportive of gusty thunderstorm outflow that could contribute to wildfire spread with both existing fires and new lightning ignitions. Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected to occur over the southern Cascades, especially where local gap flow enhanced winds could contribute to wildfire spread with existing fires. Some trimming of the previous forecast areas was necessary to account for wetting rainfall occurring the previous day, leaving fuels less receptive to ignition. Some elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible in portions of north-central Montana, but the overlap of stronger surface winds/low relative humidity and receptive fuels is somewhat narrow. ...Northern Great Plains... Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated, particularly along portions of western Montana and Wyoming, into eastern Nebraska and the Dakotas. Strong southerly flow, coupled with hot, dry boundary layer profiles, are expected to persist for much of the afternoon and into the evening. Fuels in this region will be at or exceed the 90th percentile for ERCs, but conditions are expected to remain below critical criteria for wind and relative humidity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z A few minor changes to the Elevated highlights were made based on the latest guidance. The forecast is otherwise unchanged. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms are anticipated across portions of southern Idaho into southwestern Montana as an upper-level trough progresses eastward across the Northwest. Additionally, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across the southern Cascades, portions of northern Montana, and the northern Great Plains. ...Pacific Northwest... As an upper-level trough is forecast to progress eastward out of the Pacific Northwest and into Montana, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across southeastern Idaho and into southwestern Montana over receptive fuels. Some trimming of the previous forecast area, particularly over southwestern Idaho, was necessary after significant wetting rainfall occurred the previous day. Additionally, current forecast guidance suggests a mix of both wet and dry thunderstorms, precluding the introduction of a scattered dry thunder area despite widespread thunderstorm coverage. Forecast profiles across southwestern Montana show deep inverted-v boundary layers supportive of gusty thunderstorm outflow that could contribute to wildfire spread with both existing fires and new lightning ignitions. Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected to occur over the southern Cascades, especially where local gap flow enhanced winds could contribute to wildfire spread with existing fires. Some trimming of the previous forecast areas was necessary to account for wetting rainfall occurring the previous day, leaving fuels less receptive to ignition. Some elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible in portions of north-central Montana, but the overlap of stronger surface winds/low relative humidity and receptive fuels is somewhat narrow. ...Northern Great Plains... Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated, particularly along portions of western Montana and Wyoming, into eastern Nebraska and the Dakotas. Strong southerly flow, coupled with hot, dry boundary layer profiles, are expected to persist for much of the afternoon and into the evening. Fuels in this region will be at or exceed the 90th percentile for ERCs, but conditions are expected to remain below critical criteria for wind and relative humidity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z A few minor changes to the Elevated highlights were made based on the latest guidance. The forecast is otherwise unchanged. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms are anticipated across portions of southern Idaho into southwestern Montana as an upper-level trough progresses eastward across the Northwest. Additionally, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across the southern Cascades, portions of northern Montana, and the northern Great Plains. ...Pacific Northwest... As an upper-level trough is forecast to progress eastward out of the Pacific Northwest and into Montana, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across southeastern Idaho and into southwestern Montana over receptive fuels. Some trimming of the previous forecast area, particularly over southwestern Idaho, was necessary after significant wetting rainfall occurred the previous day. Additionally, current forecast guidance suggests a mix of both wet and dry thunderstorms, precluding the introduction of a scattered dry thunder area despite widespread thunderstorm coverage. Forecast profiles across southwestern Montana show deep inverted-v boundary layers supportive of gusty thunderstorm outflow that could contribute to wildfire spread with both existing fires and new lightning ignitions. Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected to occur over the southern Cascades, especially where local gap flow enhanced winds could contribute to wildfire spread with existing fires. Some trimming of the previous forecast areas was necessary to account for wetting rainfall occurring the previous day, leaving fuels less receptive to ignition. Some elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible in portions of north-central Montana, but the overlap of stronger surface winds/low relative humidity and receptive fuels is somewhat narrow. ...Northern Great Plains... Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated, particularly along portions of western Montana and Wyoming, into eastern Nebraska and the Dakotas. Strong southerly flow, coupled with hot, dry boundary layer profiles, are expected to persist for much of the afternoon and into the evening. Fuels in this region will be at or exceed the 90th percentile for ERCs, but conditions are expected to remain below critical criteria for wind and relative humidity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more